Wednesday, November 1, 2023

Wednesday Odds and Ends

1. The 2022 Draft A Year Later

Everyone should know by now that I think the 2022 draft stunk and that the Guardians left the best talent on the board with almost all of the picks they made in the firs 5 rounds, at least.  Here is a link      ( http://ciperspective.blogspot.com/2022/07/day-2-summary-and-overall-thoughts-of.html ) to the July 18, 2022 post I made with the my first 5 picks in that draft compared to what the Guardians did:  A year later after the first full season for each of those draft picks here is a side-by-side comparison of those selections.

Round 1:

Guardians: Chase DeLauter (currently  #85 prospect in all of baseball)
My mock draft: Daniel Susac (currently the #4 prospect in the Oakland As system)

Round 1C

Guardians: Justin Campbell (currently the #23 prospect in Cleveland's system; out with an injury all year)
My mock draft: Cayden Wallace (currently the #2 prospect in the Royals system)

Round 2

Guardians: Parker Messick (currently the #17 prospect in the Guardians system)
My mock draft: Carson Whisenhut (#70 overall prospect in baseball, #3 in Giants system)

Round 3

Guardians: Joe Lampe (not listed in the Guardians top 30 prospects, spent all year in A+ ball)
My mock draft: Dominic Keegan (#9 prospect for Tampa Bay.  Currently hitting .410 with an OPS of 1.200 in the AFL playing for the same team as Manzardo and DeLauter are playing for).  And Keegan is a catcher.

Round 4

Guardians: Nate Furman (not listed in Guardians top 30 prospects, spent most of the year in A ball)
My mock draft: Luke Gold (currently #27 prospect for Detroit, split time between A and A+)

Round 5

Guardians: Guy Lipscomb (not listed in Guardians top 30 prospects, spent all year in A ball)
My mock draft: Noah Dean (not listed in Boston's top 30 prospects, hurt most of the year)

This is not to point out how I am better than the Guardians.  It is only to point out what I considered our needs were: power hitters, top catching prospects, pitching prospects compared to what the Guardians thought our needs were: LH hitting slap hitters with good batting eyes and pitchability college pitchers.  My draft selections focused on what I thought our needs were at the same time not sacrificing quality.  Cleveland's picks focused on what they thought was important while sacrificing quality on our 2nd through 5th round picks, at least, and the jury is still out on DeLauter and on Campbell due to injury.

We could have done so much better in the 2022 draft and we will be paying for the clear mistakes we made in these two drafts for the next 5-10 years.

2. The Managerial Search Continues with a Caution from Me

I don't believe Craig Counsell will end up as Cleveland's manager.

I think the Guardians were just interviewing Counsell and he accepted the interview just as due diligence.

I also think the Cleveland interview and offer will just serve to drive up the value of Counsell's eventual salary.

His choices are the best available managerial position in baseball (Houston), his hometown team (Milwaukee), an opportunity where the owner spends like crazy to have a winner (NYM) and Cleveland.  

Counsell isn't coming here and the longer we wait and string along our #2 choice the more likely we lose that guy to another club or risk alienating him coming in the door.

This is a game of musical chairs and injecting Counsell into this mix just muddied the waters considerably.

That being said, I don't trust that the Guardians will pick the right guy.  Francona fell into their laps before but the experienced managers who would fit here (Lovullo, Cash and Counsell) aren't coming.  So now, for the first time in 11 years, they have to actually take a chance on a guy that nobody knows.  Will they do a good job?  Just look at their player decisions over the past 3+ years and tell me what you think their odds are of doing a good job hiring the right manager.

3. Jonathon Rodriguez Being Rostered Instead of Lost to MiLB Free Agency

Tick.  Tick.  Tick.

4. Ryan Webb

I am pretty sure if he starts on schedule that his next start (Nov. 2nd) will be live streamed by MLB on MLB.com.  This is must see TV if you are a Guardians' prospect geek.

5. Off-season Acquistions the Guardians Need to Make

guys who are on the 40 man roster or would have to be added as they would be Rule 5 eligible are underlined

a. Luis Robert Jr. for Kyle Manzardo, Juan Brito, Joey Cantillo and Ryan Webb

b. Jordan Walker, Tyler O'Neill, Gorden Graceffo and Ivan Herrera for Bieber, Quantrill, Sandlin, Lavastida and Straw.

c. Trade Jose Tena to Arizona for Jorge Barrosa and Brycen Jarvis

d. Sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 10 yr, $200 million deal

e. Sign Reynaldo Lopez to a 3 yr, $13 million deal

f. Sign Francisco Mejia to a minor league deal

g. Sign Carlos Carrasco to a minor league deal

h. DFA Laureano and Michael Kelly

i. Add to the roster Jonathon Rodriguez, Ethan Hankins, Daniel Espino 

These moves would immediately add one more player to our 40 man roster than we would lose, essentially making all of them a break even.  This is my ideal off-season although Rodriguez might cost us a draft pick.  The only duplicates we would still have on the roster at that point would be the following:

Starting Pitcher Options (8): Allen, Bibee, Williams, McKenzie, Yamamoto, Graceffo, Carrasco, Gaddis

Outfield Options (10): Kwan, Roberts Jr, Brennan, Walker, O'Neill, Barrosa, Valera, Gonzalez, JRod, Noel

MIF options (5): Gimenez, Freeman, Arias, Martinez, Rocchio

Catching Options (4): Bo Naylor, Herrera, Fry, Mejia

Bullpen Options (14): Clase, Curry, De Los Santos, Hentges, Herrin, Karinchak, Lopez, Morgan, Morris, Stephan, Cade Smith, Jarvis, Hunter Gaddis

So we would have some other trade chips like Brennan, Morgan, Karinchak, Gonzalez, Valera, JRod, Noel and one of Gimenez/Freeman/Arias/Martinez/Rocchio if we need to make a July trade.

Our statting lineup would look something like this:

1. Kwan LF
2. Ramirez 3B
3. Robert CF
4. Josh Naylor 1B
5. O'Neill DH
6. Gimenez 2B
7. Walker RF
8. Bo Naylor C
9. Rocchio or Arias SS (I prefer Rocchio with this lineup setup as he represents a 2nd leadoff man)


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