Decision Month Coming Up - Volume 2 - The 2024 Draft Lottery

 BACKGROUND

OK, for the first time in Guardians' history (and for the first time in the two year history of the draft lottery. LOL) the Guardians are participating in the draft lottery.

To me this is like the second chance lottery when you have already failed to win any money on the real lottery.   Your team had a bad season and their consolation prize is a system where you don't have much chance of winning.

But, to be clear, there are two kinds of 'winning' here.  So let's define what those are.  Remember, every team that does not make the playoffs in theory gets to participate in the lottery.  Some teams, like Washington this year, don't get to participate in the lottery if they have participated in one or more consecutive years before this year.  Here 's the good things that can happen:

• "Winning the lottery" is defined by me as getting the #1 overall pick.  The odds of that happening are small.  For the Guardians this year, with the 9th worst record in 2023, it is 2 %.  Oakland, KC and Colorado, with the 3 worst records in baseball this year, have a 16.5 % chance of getting the top pick.
• "Getting a lottery selection", that is, getting to pick in one of the top 6 slots in the first round.  If I have done my calculations right the Guardians have about a 20% of getting a pick in the top 6 with Oakland, who had the worst record in baseball this year, having an 80% chance.

2022 DRAFT LOTTERY

Last year the lottery did shake up the first round significantly.  Below is the draft order that ACTUALLY happened in the first round. The numbers in parentheses is where these teams ranked in where they would have drafted without the lottery (and did draft in later rounds of the 2023 draft).

1. Pittsburgh (3)

2. Washington (1)

3. Detroit (6)

4. Texas (7)

5. Minnesota (13)

6. Oakland (2)

7. Cincinnati (4)

8. KC (5)

9. Colorado (8)

10. Seattle (9)

11. LAA (10)

12. Arizona (11)

13. Chicago Cubs (12)

14. Boston (14)

15. Chicago WS (15)

16. San Francisco (16)

17. Baltimore (17)

18. Milwaukee (18)

By this list you can see how the order was jumbled by Minnesota getting a much higher slot than where they should have and other teams moving up or down depending on how their slots changed due to the lottery.  Only 4 of the 6 teams with the best chances of getting a lottery selection actually did.  The MLB strategy of stopping teams from tanking worked somewhat as Pittsburgh, with the 3rd worst record last year actually won the lottery, getting to pick 1st overall in the first round.  Oakland, with the 2nd worst record last year, dropped all the way down to 6th.  

2023 DRAFT LOTTERY SCENARIOS

Looking at 2022 it looks like the Guardians might sneak into the top 6 by winning a lottery selection.  It is less likely, but still possible, that they could pull a Cavs Lebron Year and get the top spot.  

So let's look at the different scenarios:

• Guardians win a lottery selection: They get that spot in the first round and revert back to the 9th overall spot in later rounds (possibly higher in the 2nd and 3rd rounds for teams that sacrifice their 2nd or 3rd picks this winter for signing a QO free agent or who didn't sign a draft pick in those rounds last year.
• Guardians do not get a lottery selection
• If Cleveland does not win a lottery selection any team ranked 10th or below (except for Washington, see below) that does win a lottery selection knocks Cleveland down to 11th
• Washington is locked in at #10.  They cannot move up or down in the 1st round draft order.  If one team moves ahead of Cleveland by winning a lottery selection Cleveland will drop 2 spots to 11th.
• If the Mets do not get a lottery selection they will drop to 17th overall and Cleveland moves up to #8 and the Tigers move up to 9th.  In this case 2 teams not currently in the top 6 would have to win lottery selections for Cleveland to drop to 11th.
• If all 6 teams that win a lottery selection are ranked below Cleveland, the Guardians could drop 6 spots and, not counting Washington's spot, this would have them selecting 16th in the first round.

SUMMARY

Looking at last year here are my thoughts on where Cleveland might draft

• They will draft anywhere from 1-6 or 8-16 in the first round
• 1 would mean they win the lottery
• 2-6 would mean they won a lottery selection
• They cannot select 7th under any circumstances.
• They can select 8th if they don't win a lottery selection and no team below them does and the Mets do not win a lottery selection
• They will select 9th if the Mets win a lottery selection and no team below them wins a lottery selection
• They will select 11th if the Mets and one other team or two other teams NOT including the Mets ranked below the Guardians win a lottery selection
• They will select somewhere between 12th and 16th if 3,4,5 or 6 teams, respectively, who rank below them ALL win lottery selections.
• They cannot, under any circumstances, select 17th or 18th.

The most likely scenario for Cleveland is that they select 9th.  Second most likely is that they select 11th and, to me, the 3rd most likely scenario is that they select 5th or 6th.   Still, with all slots in the 1st round between 1 and 16 (except for 7th) in play, there will be significant drama on draft lottery selection night.  It would be great for the Guardians, and likely cause high 5s all around in MLB's executive offices and at MLBPA if a team like the Guardians won the top slot and teams that weren't really trying that hard to win games (Oakland, KC and Colorado) didn't win a lottery selection at all or, at best, didn't win the top overall selection.