New Rules - How Will They Impact Teams' Control of Minor League Players

Yesterday's announcement that the complex leagues in Florida and Arizona will now start playing in May and end before the 2024 draft was shocking to a lot of prospect geeks.  People are scrambling to see what it all means to player development and player control.  Let's unpack what I think it means, pending official word from MLB.  

However, as we dive into this new rule, it is important to know that it is not the only recent rule change that impacts prospect development/control. Here are some important, recent changes, including the complex league schedule change, that impact a team's ability to control their prospects.

• MiLB CBA -
• Players 19 and older (essentially college-age players) reach minor league free agency 6 years from the date they are signed, assuming they turned 19 by June 5th of the year they were drafted/signed.   This means these players only have 5 full seasons to be placed on a team's 40 man roster or they can become MiLB free agents.   This is a drop of one year from the previous rule. Remember that college players also reach Rule 5 status one year earlier than HS draftees and most players signed from Latin America.
• Players signed before their 19th birthday (generally HS and young international signees) fall under the previous rule, get 7 seasons, meaning they get their signing/draft year plus another 6 full seasons before they can become an MiLB free agent.  This is the same rule that used to apply to all players.
• Maximum Minor League Reserved Lists In 2024
• An MLB team may only have a total of 165 players on their US minor league reserve lists.  Down from 180 last year, this means that teams with a traditional minor league system (AAA, AA, A+, A and Complex League) will have, on average, an average of 33 players on each of these rosters.  This will impact the depth in every organization as teams will likely have to release prospects who have not progressed as fast as other players and these multiyear project players (e.g., Tommy Ventimiglia of the Guardians) might not be signed any longer if, as with Ventimiglia, he might not truly be ready for affiliated baseball until his game is polished up significantly. These hard decisions will no doubt cause teams to lose talented players simply because they have no room for them under this 165 player umbrella.
•  As I understand it, signed draftees MUST be included in the 165 players at the conclusion of the draft signing period in a given year, even if the new rule described below on the change in the complex league seasons makes it impossible for these players to play in their draft year.
• This list does not include players on Dominican Rosters unless those players are added to a US affiliate.  
• The 165 player limit does not include players on long-term injury/inactive lists but does include players on shorter term (7 day) injury lists. The limited roster size also could hurt here as teams may not have enough replacements to cover a large number of short term injuries, even when those injuries are spread across a lot of teams.
• The list does include players on a team's 40-man roster but not on the MLB team's 26 man roster.  
• This total US minor league player limitation will also likely eliminate teams from have two entries in a complex league as has happened in the past as teams simply can't populate SIX US minor league affiliates if they only have 165 players to fill those rosters.
• The list is fluid during the season.  If your minor league system is full at 165 and you send a player to the minors, another player would likely have to be released.  Under this rule, for example, teams that make deadline deals where they acquire prospects might be required to release players so they have spots for the acquired prospects.
• Elimination of Short-Season A Teams
• In the new CBA a whole level of the minor leagues, what is called the short-season A leagues, was eliminated.  This was a level that college draftees generally played in during their draft year and many HS players played in during their first full season after their draft year.  Without these leagues and in combination with the new rule of the complex league season, (see below) this will make it difficult for draftees (college of HS) to find places to play their first season in the minor leagues even those these players are required to be counted in the 165.  Inclusion of draftees on the in-season 165 number may cause a number of in-season releases of players to accomodate these new draftees entering the 165 player reserve lists. 
• International Signing Period
• Implemented in 2021 due to the pandemic, teams now can sign players if they are 16 years old or older on Jan. 15th.  
• This change removed the ability of a team from signing a 'futures' player.  In the past teams would sign these players on or after Aug. 15th when the DSL essentially was about to end their season.  MLB allowed teams to not start the service clock for those players until the next year, giving them a whole year of development before their service time clock started. 
• Now players sign on Jan 15th and are able to start their playing careers the same calendar year in the DSL.  This allows the players to play more quickly but means they can become minor league free agents almost one year younger than in the previous CBA.  
• The Ivan Herrera Exemption
• Until this year the MLB has treated 2020 as a full season (>90 days) of service time for minor leaguers toward their Rule 5 eligibility, minor league free agency AND their minor league options.  Once placed on the 40-man roster, a player can be sent to the minors in 3 different seasons without passing through waivers.  If they are sent to the minors in a 4th season, they have to clear waivers before they can be sent to the minors.  MLB can award a team a 4th option with a player IF a team has used up all 3 minor league options with that player before that player has completed 5 full minor league seasons.  A season in the DSL, ACL or FCL isn't considered a full season as it lasts for less than 90 days.  Also, if the player suffers a major injury and isn't on an active roster for more than 90 days, that season doesn't count, in and of itself, as a full season, either.   Recently, there was an example that I don't think has precedent.  The Cardinals were given a 4th option year for catcher Ivan Herrera because one of his 5 full professional seasons was 2020 and MLB determined that, in this instance, since Herrera was in the minors in 2020, that season would not count as a full season.  This example is huge because the Guardians (and all teams) have players like Jhonkensy Noel and other top Latin prospects who are in the identical situation as Herrera.  
• Change in the Playing Season For Complex League Teams
• The Arizona and Florida complex leagues will start play in May and end by June 22nd, meaning that players drafted in July would have to play in A or A+ leagues as the complex leagues would already be finished by the time the draft was completed.  
• MLB has not ruled on whether the draft year for players will still count as their first year or service or whether players can sign a 'future' contract if they are drafted.  

My Thoughts

Every one of the above rule changes, with the exception of the Ivan Herrera exemption, have the potential to limit the control that teams have with their minor league assets.  There IS the possibility that the change in the playing season for complex leagues will not limit control (minor league free agency) but only if teams are given the ability to sign their draftees to future contracts, something that was, supposedly, taken away in the new CBA.  If teams are not given this pathway, players may count against this 165 limit in their draft year even though they don't have a place to play real games.

When you are a small market team like the Guardians, amateur player acquisition and development are probably the most important ways to build a major league team.  The more rules that are put in place that hamstring teams who lean heavily on player development, the more difficult it will be for those teams to compete at the ML level..  

It appears to me that these recent rule changes affect a team's years of control and development of international amateur free agents and high school draft picks disproportionately and that is a problem as these two groups are historically the slowest to develop to their full potential in the minor leagues and teams may have to make decisions to release some good prospects from these groups because they simply will not have enough roster spots. 

The trends seen in the rules above seem to dis-favor small market teams and this is a disturbing trend that I hope MLB finds ways, like the Herrera exemption, to reverse this trend and favor teams that simply can erase their player development mistakes by signing multiple expensive free agents.  MLB needs to do something for the little guy.  But will they?

Time will tell.