Each draft is different. The strength of the total player pool and individual player types differ. In 2023, most of the top picks were outfielders, more in any year since 2015. The strength at the top and the depth throughout the draft differ, too. For example, 2023 was probably a stronger draft because of the 5-round 2020, COVID-year draft. Most HS kids who weren't drafted or were drafted and didn't sign in 2020 were eligible for the 1st time in 2023 as college juniors. So, by definition, 2024 may be weak compared to 2023, as it should revert back to an average year, although experts think that 2024 will be weak even compared to an average draft year.
Although drafts vary in strength and depth, patterns can be discerned. As we are drafting 1-1, let's limit the analysis of these trends to the first 10 picks in each draft (2014-2023) and see what patterns, per position, we can see for these 100 picks.
Here are the raw numbers for the sum of the first 10 picks for the last 10 drafts:
- 30 outfielders (30% of 10 ten picks in those drafts) were selected
- 15 were HS outfielders and 15 were from college
- Here is the breakdown by which slot these 30 players were selected (C = college, HS = high school)
- #1 - 1 HS (Mickey Moniak, 2016)
- #2 - 2 C, 1 HS
- #3 - 1 HS
- #4 - 2 C
- #5 - 5 HS, 2 C
- #6 - 2 HS
- #7 - 2 C
- #8 - 3 HS, 2 C
- #9 - 2 C
- #10 - 2 HS, 3 C
- Looking at the first 3 picks we 3 HS and 2 college outfielders; in picks 4-6 we see 7 HS and 4 college OFers; in picks 7-10 we see 9 college outfielders and 5 HS outfielders.
- Players and year
- 2014 - Nick Gordon (5), Michael Conforto (10)
- 2015 - Kyle Tucker (5), Andrew Benintendi (7), Ian Happ (9), Cornelius Randolph (10)
- 2016 - Moniak, Corey Ray (5)
- 2017 - Austin Beck (6), Pavin Smith (7), Adam Haseley (8), Jo Adell (10)
- 2018 - Jared Kelenic (6), Kyler Murray (9), Travis Swaggerty (10)
- 2019 - JJ Bleday (4), Riley Greene (5), Hunter Bishop (10)
- 2020 - Heston Kjerstad (2), Robert Hassell (8), Zac Veen (9)
- 2021 - Colton Cowser (5), Benny Montgomery (8)
- 2022 - Druw Jones (2), Elijah Green (5), Gavin Cross (9)
- 2023 - Dylan Crews (2), Max Clark (3), Wyatt Langford ((4), Walker Jenkins (5)
SUMMARY
Only one time in the last ten drafts has an outfielder been selected #1 overall and that was a HS outfielder, Mickey Moniak who had been a non-factor in MLB until a breakout 2023 season. No college outfielders were selected #1 overall, although 2 very good prospects, Dylan Crews and Heston Kjerstad, were selected #2 overall, as was HS outfielder Druw Jones, the latter slowly sliding down prospect lists since his draft. Also, between 2014 and 2019 I only see 5 guys (Conforto, Tucker, Benitendi, Happ and Riley Greene) who I think are really good players. Others may become good MLers but there were a lot of misses or marginal OFers drafted in the top 10 pitcks in those 10 years and, in most cases, those guys were not near the top of their class in those draft years. That is, it is only in hindsight that these guys look better than their draft slots.
Crews was the consensus #1 overall prospect in 2023 but Kjerstad was only the #10 prospect in 2020. Lots of good players like Conforto, Tucker. Benintendi, Happ have been drafted and if we draft a player of their ilk, or even Colton Cowser, that would be a good, solid selection.
However, it is not like it is common to draft a college outfielder #1 overall as there have been more college first basemen drafted #1 overall in the past 10 drafts than college outfielders and, even if you count Crews, it is still tied. It also seems like drafting HS outfielders high inthe first round of the draft in the last 10 years has met with only spotty success, although people can always dream on coming up with Kyle Tucker part deux.
So how does this impact our #1 overall pick? It seems that these trends would indicate that we shouldn't bend over backwards to draft an outfielder (college or HS) unless they are clearly at the top of their class come draft time. It also seems that HS outfielders are preferred early in the draft with college outfielders preferred later in the top 10 picks and that the college outfielders selected are more in the solid MLer category rather than start ML category, although some of that is in the eye of the beholder. The odds of coming up with a stud player, the type you want to get at 1-1, just are not that good when you draft an outfielder, and those odds seem to go down when you are drafting a toolsy outfielder who needs to develop.
So, when I see people talking about Charlie Condon, Vance Honeycutt, Seaver King or Mike Sirota or even Konnor Griffin or Braden Montgomery at 1-1 I am very wary of those picks, especially Honeycutt. It's going to take a really good spring PLUS good reports from the last couple of years (i.e, no fast risers from where they were in December, 2023), to get me to want to bite on an outfielder at 1-1. All those guys should be solid first round draft picks but, at 1-1, just don't seem to cut the mustard, at least for me based ont he trends I see from the previous 10 years.
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