OK, I have been writing Cleveland baseball articles on the internet for a long, long time. Probably close to 20 years. Going through my files the other night I came across two articles I wrote in 2007 about Cleveland's draft that year, the latter being an interview with John Mirabelli. To set the stage for that draft, we had a middling (13th overall) first round pick and then lost our 2nd & 3rd round picks that year for signing free agents. Our next pick was a 4th round pick.
In the words of Mirabelli at the time, he had to have success with that first round pick since he didn't have 2nd and 3rd round picks, so he decided to make a 'safe' selection. At the time he didn't use these words but 'safe' in draft jargon, usually means high floor and, generally, low ceiling. Basically, if things work out, you get a solid, Paul Sorrento/Ben Broussard kinda guy. Not an all-star but a regular contributor.
Beau Mills was a college first baseman/DH type eligible for the 2007 draft. He was a baseball brat, being the son of Brad Mills. He played at a small 4-yr college (Lewis & Clark in Idaho) and had an injured shoulder at draft time that caused him, along with the low level of competition he saw in college, to drop a little in the draft. At the time I asked Mirabelli why they drafted a first baseman early when they had Hafner and other first base prospects up and down the system. He said that Mills was that safe selection. The type he was pretty sure would work out.
Well, unfortunately for the Guardians, Mills didn't work out, never even making it to the majors. He was one of many failed first round picks for the Guardians over the years and each one has set the tightly-run organization back in terms of player resources to plug in or trade.
My pick for that first round slot in 2007 was Blake Beavan, a HS pitcher with huge upside. Beavan ended up going 17th to the Rangers and pitched parts of 4 seasons with Seattle, amassing 1.7 WAR and a 16-20 record and 4.61 ERA over those 4 seasons with a very poor 11% K rate. But he did make the majors. Beavan was the high risk (HS pitcher)/high reward guy. In hindsight, Jason Heyward, a HS outfielder, was drafted immediately after Mills and Devin Mesoraco, a HS catcher, drafted immediately after Heyward. Both became all-stars during their careers, Including these two, 11 of the 17 first round picks selected AFTER Mills played in the majors, making the 'safe' pick of Mills look even worse. In the 2007 only 2 of the 26 players signed by Cleveland (22 players didn't end up signing), TJ McFarland and Josh Judy, ended up playing in the majors meanng this draft rivaled one of the worst in Cleveland history in success rate.
In 2024 we will have the #1 overall pick in the draft. But similar to 2007, we will have two choices: make a safe pick who might not have high upside but will likely become a solid major league regular or, unlike Mirabelli and Cleveland in 2007, go for the gusto/brass ring and draft a higher risk player who has higher upside.
In my opinion this draft is so weak at the top and most guys who might even be considered for that first pick have enough warts that the best choice is to go with Wetherholt or Kurtz, the safe picks in the draft at 1-1 and don't go for a late riser like flamethrower Chase Burns or a toolsy guy like college OFer Vance Honeycutt, both of whom have intriguing upside but many questions that could end up making them busts that we get little or nothing out of.
But the story of Beau Mills shows that even if you go the 'safe' path, you sometimes come to a dead end. And dead ends are something a cash strapped franchise like Cleveland cannot afford.
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