OK, let's jump into our time machine and hop forward about 38 days to July 14th and the 2024 first year player draft. Who would I pick if I was the Guardians? Obviously the draft is a fluid exercise. Last year it was widely rumored that the Guardians were going to draft Colten Emerson. Then, one slot before the Guardians' pick, the Mariners selected Emerson, who is now the 15th best prospect in baseball. The same thing will happen this year, to be sure, after the 1-1 pick. AND THAT WAS JUST LAST YEAR'S FIRST ROUND PICK. So a lot of what I will say here will depend on players being available. So let's start this mental exercise.
1-1 - Travis Bazzana - 2B - Oregon St. - Bazzana fits the Guardians model: LHH with great plate discipline, great hit tool, great athleticism and, as a bonus, great work ethic and he should get to the majors fast as a college hitter who could possibly play in the OF but looks to be solid at 2B, too. I know there are negatives: middle infielder (one of a million in our system), LHH (of which it looks we have thousands in the minors). Plus, my calculations say that we should be able to save $1+ MM on him. I just hope the Guardians don't try to prove they are the smartest people in the draft in baseball and select someone who is cheaper just to save money.
1-36 (Supplemental A) - Mike Sirota - OF - Northeastern - As I was contemplating this pick I was vacillating. Sirota? College Pitcher? Sirota? College Pitcher? In the end, I decided on Sirota because there are many college pitchers available but not as many college hitters like Sirota. A RHH who can likely stay in CF as a pro. His combination of speed and strike zone control fits into what the Guardians are looking for and could allow him to develop more power as a pro. Also he has grown up playing in the cold weather so there is that. I see his floor as Tyler Freeman and his ceiling as Jazz Chisholm with better defense. Plus, he has done well in two times in the Cape summer league and that is important to the Guardians.
2-48 - Bryce Cunningham, RHP - Vanderbilt - So, once I picked Sirota it meant I was going to go heavy after college pitching. The problem with identifying THE college pitcher I want at this slot is that the fluidity of this draft may throw a monkey wrench into my plans. That being said, after the first 10-12 picks this draft will be very fluid so there will be a lot of teams out there chasing the brass ring and, I think, taking gambles on 5-tool players on both sides of the ball. I think 3 things played into my pick here: (1) while the strength, at this point in the draft, is likely to be high school pitchers and, to a lesser extent, HS position players, the Guardians aren't really very good developing either of those demographic groups; (2) Cunningham has the type of stuff that the Guardians love to build from as he looks very Tanner Bibee-like to me but is not polished, meaning reliever risk could allow him to be available here; (3) In situations where everything else is equal, I think the Guardians pick the high floor, low current ceiling college pitcher as they are more likely to succeed at some level in the majors and they will get there pretty quickly, or at least that's the hope. I am sure there are other college pitchers who fit in here but Cunningham will not break the bank, fitting in nicely to the Guardians saving money for later rounds. In addition, he is a 2-time all-star in the Cape summer league and the Guardians love guys who were successful on the Cape. He should fit well into The Cleveland Guardians Finishing School for College Pitchers (CGFS4CP, previously known as "The Factory") that gave us Shane Beiber, Tanner Bibee and others from Day 2 rounds.
3-84 - Matt Ager - RHP - UC Santa Barbara - Earlier in the year I thought that Ager might sneak into the top 2 rounds but the way he was used this year, in my opinion, caused his stuff to play down. I think that we go for him here as the CGFS4CP appears to be alive and well considering the results so far this year with Nikhazy, Mace, Aleman, Davenport and Denholm. And he's from Santa Barbara (Bieber-land, cough!).
4-113 - Ryan Campos - C - Arizona State - I said I would be all about college pitching, right? And there are so many tantalizing college pitchers left at this point. So, normally I would kick myself (or the Guardians) for this pick but Campos fits the Guardians mold for hitters so much (LHH, walks much more than strikes out (40/25)) that I am going to ignore his similarity to 2023 overdraft Cooper Ingle (albeit Campos more power). Hey, the Guardians gonna love who they're gonna love, right? So I am biting my lip and taking Campos here as I think they should be able to sign him for a little under slot and, frankly, our organizational depth at catcher SUCKS, especially in the upper minors.
5-146 - Trey Gregory-Alford - RHP - HS, Colorado - Gregory-Alford is really just a placeholder here. It's his profile that has had me interested since I predicted the Guardians would take him all the way back in January because he had a particular profile. That profile is a HS pitcher who has/had a lot of hype, who has a great college scholarship and who has fallen a little due to an uneven performance in 2024 and, for icing on the cake, he comes from a cold weather area so the looks at him this spring were probably limited and teams would have to go on showcase results with the Guardians liking to look at the performance of a player the previous summer. The point here is that he, like many HS pitchers, will have an inflated idea of his value and will be a clear over-slot signing. The Guardians should have the money left over from Bazzana to sign Gregory-Alford (OR SOMEONE LIKE HIM) in this slot and I think they will go for it. I still project they will go with an above average number of HS pitcher flyers (maybe 4-5) in rounds 11-20 (like Marohn, Zinn and Heuer last year) along with a couple of over-slot college pitchers who have dropped in performance or stuff (e.g. Adam Plutko) or were hurt in 2024 (see Zach Plesac). But this slot will be where they make their biggest splash, IMO, for Gregory-Alford or another HS pitcher whose performance/bonus demands would likely cause him to fall out of the top 10 rounds or, as has happened many times in the past few years, out of the draft altogether.
6-175 -Bridger Holmes - RHP - Oregon State - Continuing on the Andrew Walters, Nick Sandlin, Franco Aleman vein, I am picking Holmes here as I like him as a reliever and I think he will come cheap. His delivery looks like Sandlin's which I think will give the Guardians confidence that the CGFS4CP will be able to get the most out of him. If they have been on Bazzana, they have also gotten plenty of looks at Holmes. It is questionable whether Holmes will be here but, if he is, I love this pick a lot.
7-205 - Nick Brink - RHP - Portland - Brink is a RS Jr. pick (like a college senior) for us in this draft. An over-draft here and actually the type of pick I HATE when the Guardians make it, I still like his combination of stuff and the fact that he will come cheap. He fits with the CGFS4CP as he has good stuff and has pitched enough innings this year (99.2) that it will give them time to work with him over the fall and into the spring so he can be ready for a full-season assignment next spring.
8-235 - Owen Boerema - RHP - Kansas State - Another senior sign, Boerema was a solid pitcher for K-State, logging 98 innings this spring, making him the perfect college pitcher for the Guardian,s CGFS4CP, who like to avoid starting college pitchers' professional careers, if possible, until the spring after their draft year meaning his heavy inning load won't be an issue. Like Austin Peterson from UConn a couple of years ago, any value from Boerema might be obtained in a maddeningly slow process, at least for the age of a prospect like him. But I like the risk and the low cost to save money for all the HS pitcher flyers and injured college pitchers I plan to draft in rounds 11-20.
9-265 - John Bay - OF - Austin Peay - Another senior sign (actually a redshirt junior), Bay is my only concession to drafting a college OFer with power. He hits RH (giving us 2 with Sirota), had an upsurge in power this year, can steal a base and take a walk...and, as a RS JR, should come at slot or a little below.
10-295 - Pierce Coppola - LHP - Florida - This guy reminds me of a hybrid of Aleman and Hentges. He had a 9.16 ERA in 2024 so, even as a college junior, he should be available here and should sign for slot. Like Aleman and Tugboat Wilkinson, this guy is a huge project but 6-8 pitchers with injury history and 9+ ERAs tend to be that way, no matter what sort of stuff they have. But I am counting on the CGFS4CP once again to develop this guy. Probably will take a little above slot to sign him ($200,000 or so) but I like the gamble.
OK, so there is my draft so far through day 2. While a number of these guys are highly speculative and there are lots of options for almost all these picks after Bazzana (e.g., think of all the college SP I could have drafted who were rated close to or maybe even higher than Ager), and for all the talk I had early in the year about this being the year of the draft-eligible sophomore, saying that we had the money to mine that pool of guys who likely would be expensive signs (see Alex Mooney from 2023), I didn't pick a single draft-eligible soph! Maybe the Guardians will have a different approach on these types of guys in the first two days or maybe they will try to draft some of them on day 3. Who knows.
Now on to day 3 where I plan to focus on 4 types of guys: injured college pitchers, HS pitchers who have dropped, guys who are draft-eligible and in the transfer portal, draft-eligible sophomores and, for the first time for the Guardians, drafting a junior college draft-and-follow guy or two as those guys are allowed to have a higher bonus before they start counting agains the previous year's draft. I will also throw in one college senior OFer because, well, I just like him.
Round 11 - Matt Koch - RHP - Creighton (in transfer portal) - Koch turns 21 on June 29th, making him both a draft-eligible sophomore and a transfer portal guy. With a fastball up to 96 and other good analytics, he looks good (60 Ks in 38.1 innings in 2024). Normally 11th round picks, being the first picks on day 3, after the dust settles on a frantic day 2, are places where teams can pick up gems. In the 11th and 12 rounds of previous drafts we have picked up guys like Adam Plutko, Zach Plesac and, recently, Magnus Ellerts (2022), Hunter Stanley (2021) and Nick Mikolajchak (2019), all college pitchers. Obviously Koch will cost us over slot but not so much that we won't have it left in our war chest from savings on picks in the first 10 rounds.
Round 12 - Nate Knowles - RHP - William & Mary - As the Guardians get into double digits they clearly focus on college pitchers who have reliever capabilities as a pro. I think Knowles fits this category and, as he is undersized (5'11"), I think he would be available at this pick and be signable.
Round 13 - Micah McDowell - OF - Oregon State - Literally no one must like this guy the way I do. But I see him as a solid senior signing and I don't necessarily see any of my other day 3 picks being impacted by using a relatively early day 3 slot to pick McDowell. I mean, look at the stats: .403/.505/.667/1.167. He has stolen less bases this year but he plays CF and stole 15 last year and 25 the year before in summer ball in only 35 games! As was said about Holmes, the Guardians scouting Bazzana would have gotten plenty of looks at McDowell as, except for a period where he was injured, he hit 2nd in the OSU order, right behind Bazzana. If we can get him here I say why not?
Round 14 - Colby Holcombe - RHP - Mississippi State - Another guy, like Coppola with good size and bad stats, Holcombe is a perfect fit for the Guardians. I think it will cost them a little more money to pry him away from college (probably $200,000) just to show him we are serious and convince him that he is not likely, based on his track record, to do any better if he goes back to college for another year.
Round 15 - Blake Larson - LHP - IMG Academy (FL) - Larson represents a placeholder here but I think he is a good example. Young kids seem to be more concerned about the round they are drafted in because that round gives them prestige as well as top bonus money. How many times have I heard "I won't sign unless I get drafted in the first 3 rounds". The IMG Academy gets good kids there with promise of professional success or, at least, a good college scholarship. The Guardians have shown the ability to convince HS pitchers that the round doesn't matter, it is the bonus and that it is the bonus that makes the kid a priority prospect, not the round they were drafted in. This allowed them to land Zibin, Humphries, Zinn, Bresnahan and other HS pitches late in the draft with Heuer and Marohn likely added to that list if Mooney hadn't siphoned off all the extra cash the Guardians had to work with.
Round 16 - Joseph Broughton - LHP - Northville HS (MI) - Another guy who I think will sign as his college commitment is to Pittsburgh. I think, like Marohn last year, we just need to find the money to sign him away from Pittsburgh and get him into our minor league development program. Again, he is just a placeholder but I think if we get HS flyer picks in round 5, 15 and 16 who are quality prospects I think we can use any draft excess we have. The Guardians may want to add another HS pitcher and we'll talk about that below.
Round 17 - Beau Sampson - RHP - Salt Lake City CC - Sampson is 6-6 and is a freshman, meaning he could go back to junior college in 2025 and still be signable by the Guardians under the new draft rules. Sampson could be signed between the end of his 2025 JUCO season and day 1 of the 2025 draft. The upside to this new rule as that the player could be signed for up to $225,000 and not count against Cleveland's bonus pool. That means that Sampson could be signed for $75,000 more next year and not count against the 2024 bonus pool compared to if he was signed for the same amount during the 2024 signing period, which ends at the end of July, 2024. The downside is if the Guardians fail to sign him before next year's draft they have, essentially, lost one of their 20 draft picks from 2024 with no chance of getting a ML player out of that slot. This would be the same for any player drafted in 2024 who did not sign, however.
Round 18 - Jacob Swanson - RHP - Touttle Lake (WA) HS - I think a guy like Swanson could be convinced to start his pro career. I think you are looking at probably $300,000+ to sign him and, like the other HS pitchers on this list, this spot is just a placeholder for a well-regarded HS pitcher who we can sign using the excess bonus pool money (plus up to 5% greater than the pool) to sign.
Round 19 - Matt Willadsen - RHP - NC State - Willadsen would have been a senior but was injured this winter and missed the entire season. He would be a cheap sign and I like what I read about him.
Round 20 - Tyler Boudreau - RHP - Midland CC (TX) - Boudreau is a draft-eligible junior college player as he is already 21. I think he is signable. You could substitute an injured college pitcher here who would have been a higher draft choice, probably one who has been hurt some but not all of the year, meaning that he wouldn't get an extra year of eligibility due to his injury. I can't identify who that would be right now but, if not the lower level draft-eligible sophomore, I think the injured college pitcher route might be the way they would go here.
So, there you have it. 1 college MIFer, 2 RHH college outfielders, 1 LHH college outfielder, 1 LHH college catcher, 1 JUCO pitcher, 11 college pitchers, 4 HS Pitchers (all of which are flyers to some level). We have 3 draft-eligible sophomores, 1 draft-and-follow, 4 RS Jr/college senior draftees, those 4 HS pitchers and the rest being college juniors. One scenario out of billions. While it might not be exactly right I think it shows how I would conduct the draft, what mix I would like to have and how I think the Guardians could get to that mix.
Hope you enjoy it as much as I enjoyed putting this together. Shutting off the time machine now and going to bed. Good night. Rest well. Go Guards!
