3/24/11 - Terry Pluto with a good article on Monday about the Tribe drafts in 2004-2007. He said how little we got for those drafts. The problem with this 20-20 hindsight thinking is that it took 7 years from 2004 for people to realize how bad these drafts were. Actually, they were bad at the time, we just didn't know how bad. To the defense of John Mirabelli, a lot of the players who were drafted were considere solid picks in those drafts, e.g., Jeremy Sowers, David Huff, Wes Hodges, Nick Weglarz. Some were clunkers from the word 'go' however, e.g., Trevor Crowe, Beau Mills, Javier Herrera. These were the definition of 'a real reach' and they weren't the only ones. Plus, in most of those drafts there were close to ZERO late round flyers who they actually signed, although they did draft Tim Lincecum and Desmond Jennings, although they failed to sign either. So now Terry Pluto is saying how bad those drafts are hurting the Cleveland Indians. It is kind of tough for me to hear this because I have been saying this for years and years. Yeah, in many cases it does take years to find out what you have in a draft class. However, this is mostly due to guys falling off due to injuries and seeing whether 5-tool prospects can really translate those tools into performance. However, for the picks that should be your solid ones, in rounds 1-5, you HAVE to do better if you are the Cleveland Indians and those picks have to be close to locks to perform in the majors at the ability their respective draft slot indicates they should.
To that point, Pluto talks about Josh Tomlin. Well, Josh Tomlin is EXACTLY the kind of guy you SHOULD get in the 6th round. If he is a pitcher, for example, you should minimally get a guy without TOR upside but who is a serviceable major leaguer. That is EXACTLY what we got with Tomlin. Very similar to when we drafted Ben Francisco in the 5th round. Getting a quality 4th outfielder in the 5th round of the draft is good drafting. We need to do this kind of thing more often. But we need to do more, too.
Towards that idea, Pluto also mentioned the 2008-2010 drafts. I have hailed the 2010 draft as maybe the best draft in Indians' history as they did what you are supposed to do: draft quality throughout your draft and pay the money to get those guys signed. If you draft guys based on their slots, once you get past the 6th round or so you are hoping for a miracle where one is unlikely to happen. You draft 50 rounds just in case a miracle does happen but you can't plan on it. You have to draft top 5-round talent up and down your draft. THEN you have a shot at getting a good draft out of it.
In 2008 and 2009 I said the Indians needed to take more risks. I hailed them for drafting Putnam and House and look how those picks have turned out compared to Trey Haley, who was an overdraft and a clunker from the word go, as we can now see from his performance.
What Pluto didn't mention is the pathetic return we got for CC and Lee. A good return for CC and Lee and better drafting during those years would mean we were looking at how many games we can win this year rather than how many games we are going to lose. Diehard fans could be worrying about keeping their October calendars clear for the playoffs rather than planning a trip to Vermont to look at the leaves turn wonderful colors.
The only difference between Pluto's 20-20 hindsight and my 20-20 vision at the time is that no one believed it then.
The bottom line: Let's have more drafts like 2010 and spend 2+ million on one top Latin FA a year. We do that and we will be in contention with the Kansas City Royals for the 2014 and beyond Central Division championship. Until then..its going to be 4 months of damn poor skiing as my friend from Maine used to say about the months of May, June, July and August.
Indians' fans, you only have yourselves to blame. Not for not buying tickets because that would have just been feeding the monster that wasn't doing you any good. The blame you bear is for not complaining loudly enough at the time these pathetic drafts and trades were being made.
Hey, each draft pick doesn't have to be CC Sabathia and each trade for a Cy Young winner doesn't have to be a Bartolo Colon trade but SOME of that has to occur or your team sucks badly...just like ours does now!
3/21/11 - This team needs to catch some breaks and they are not getting them. Rob Bryson out with a broken foot, Nick Weglarz out with a torn cartilage in his knee, LeVon Washington hurts his knee after hurting his hip last fall. Tony Wolters has potentially the LEAST serious of the injuries and he is out after surgery to remove his hamate bone!!!!! All 4 of these guys have to be able to produce at the ML level.
Brash statement? I don't think so. Farm systems are useful for two things: producing major league contributors and providing trade bait. Not getting production out of these 4 really hurts our depth options and, as a result, our ability to plug these guys in down the road or trade them for needed parts.
Plus, they are all top prospects and cost us huge bonuses and are among the top prospects in our system. Add to this that Bryson is part of the crappy CC deal that looks worse by the day and has already had shoulder surgery and it adds pressure for him to perform.
Injuries are part of baseball but so is differential market size/revenue flow. You can live with one of those two but when you are in a small market with significant injuries among your top prospects then that is the kiss of death and leads to frustrating ineptitude like we have seen in Washington, Pittsburgh and Kansas City. For example, we are struggling at first and third base right now but if Michael Aubrey and Matt Whitney hadn't had injuries that sucked the performance out of them, we would have been rock solid at those positions this year!
Let's hope that these guys come back strong and our farm system stays healthy and productive. Without cash flow to make up for these bad breaks, we are in a world of hurt.
3/19/11 - The first bad break of the season comes to Jason Donald's hand, apparently. Now we will see what the Indians are thinking. Their starting pitching is floundering, although this is not unexpected given who we are talking about as starters. Their everyday lineup is shaky. Their bench is problematic. The only strong part of this team APPEARS to be the bullpen and we all know that you can't judge a bullpen from previous numbers, even ST numbers. So, now we need to know who is going to replace Donald until he heals. The odds-on favorite is Jack Hanrahan, one of the plethora of ST invitees. Still, he is no better than Luis Valbuena or Jayson Nix because, frankly, when you have the other problems the Indians have, who gives a flippin' crap about which bad thirdbaseman you play? Why do I care? Because adding Hanrahan will take yet another prospect off the 40-man roster. Hey, it's not like taking Trevor Crowe or someone like that off the roster will kill the future of this team. But, man, why take anyone off the roster? This is the folly of minor league invitees for a team like the Indians. Using them will make no real difference in where the Indians finish and it will force them to DFA somone AND it may cost younger players needed ABs. I mean, c'mon, Jason Donald at 3rd to Jayson Nix at 3rd does not hurt this team much. However, if like Chad Huffman (and DFA Shelly Duncan) if they want to keep Hanrahan and DFA Jayson Nix, I am fine with it. Trading one AAAA player for another on the 40-man doesn't expose anyone of significance to the FUTURE of the Indians to waivers. So, if Jack Hanrahan is the favorite to replace Donald then Jayson Nix should be the favorite to take a hike. Just my opinion.
Talking about AAAA guys, let's move on to Chad Durbin. Vinnie Pestano is tearing it up so far this spring. So is Justin Germano. Jess Todd is doing OK. So is Frank Herrmann. Jensen Lewis is out of options. Josh Judy and Zach Putnam is at AAA. Doug Mathis is a minor league invitee. So, we signed Durbin and yet we already have a bunch of options AND we have Germano, a minor league invitee, tearing it up and Doug Mathis in the wings as a minor league invitee. So, do we all now see how ridiculous it is to sign Durbin? There were more than enough options without him. Yet we will send one of our prospects to the minors or DFA Lewis just to have Durbin pitch on a terrible team. Didn't make sense then. Doesn't make sense now. Ridiculous move...and especially since Durbin was hurt coming in.
So, given what happened with Durbin, how many of us think we will get a good result out of the Jason Donald situation?
And, let's not forget the backup catcher thing. If we don't keep Marson on the roster it means adding ANOTHER AAAA player as a backup catcher causing us to DFA ANOTHER prospect.
3/16/11 - Chad Huffman keeps hitting. I am fine with putting him on the 40-man as long as Shelly Duncan comes off (actually not 'fine' with it, just resigned to having one of them on the 25-man this year). Of course, it would have been nice if Duncan came off last winter in time to protect Josh Rodriguez. Duncan is clearly a AAAA guy. Huffman is a AAAA guy. Neither should be on the roster but no way in heck should BOTH be on the 40-man roster, especially when we would have to DFA someone else to make that happen.
Jensen Lewis really stunk it up yesterday. His time in Cleveland may be running out. However, when you have AAAA players dotting your roster everywhere, what difference does it make if Lewis, who is playing himself into that AAAA category, is on the roster. At least he is a homegrown AAAA player!
3/15/11 - Chris Antonetti had the following quote in today's Plain Dealer on-line:
"As an organization we look at it like it's a good problem to have too many quality players at too few positions," said GM Chris Antonetti. "To the extent we can do that consistently, we'll be in a really good place organizationally. "
The problem is he wasn't talking about Jason Kipnis, Lonnie Chisenhall, Cord Phelps, Josh Rodriguez and Luis Rivero. THAT would have been a nice problem to have. He was talking about ACab, OCab, Jack Hanrahan, Jayson Nix, Jason Donald, Adam Everett and Luis Valbuena. In that group only ACab should even be considered quality and THAT is still up in the air, at least from what the Indians think. The rest are either retread vets who had trouble getting any kind of job offer this winter, AAAA guys and career backup types. No, Chris, what you have is a perpetual (in Cleveland) bad problem of bringing in worthless (to the Indians' rebuilding) veterans and dissing and, in some cases, LOSING real prospects. The quote above should be insulting to all Cleveland baseball fans. You don't call guys like this quality and you don't take ABs and IPs away from young players just to play these guys. One thing that will always be true: a retread veteran will almost always look better than a fresh rookie in every situation, short-term. They have the experience to cover up for their overall lack of ability at the ML level. Long term, however, it is a waste of money and makes this franchise look like a joke to play guys like this. Even OCab is a waste, although, as the only retread veteran on this team I could accept him being here. But with Nix, Duncan, Durbin and possibly Buck and/or Hanrahan having a shot to make the opening day roster? This team could easily become the joke of baseball AND not be moving one step closer to ML competitiveness as guys ready for the majors are not getting innings at that level.
3/12/11 - There's a joke in here somewhere. Anthony Reyes pitching to Grady Sizemore!?!?! I could see the biggest nightmare the Indians and their fans could imagine out of this: Reyes loses control of a pitch re-injuring his arm and hits Sizemore in his surgically repaired knee, putting him out for the entire season. Well, though it might have been what Eeyore would have predicted, it didn't happen. Apparently everything was OK for both of these guys. Now, if we can just get good reports on Adam Miller!
3/11/11 - Josh Rodriguez is hurt for the Pirates with hamstring tightness. So far he only has 7 official ABs this year ("B" games are not included in ST stats). He has lots of competition for a ML spot. Interestingly he is in competition with a number of guys for the UIF spot including Corey Wimberly, a guy I have been interested in for a long time, ever since his draft year. Wimberly is a lot like Ezequiel Carrera in his game but can play 2B, 3B and some SS and OF. While they may not turn out to be anything I would rather see Wimberly and Rodriguez on our ML roster right now instead of Nix and Duncan. At least I would have some hope the former 2 turn out to be something instead of watching two more re-tread/AAAA guys reaffirm why they will be fringe MLers.
We are about 3 weeks away from opening day so the Pirates have to make a decision soon on Rodriguez. I hope the Indians take him back. If they do, he will go to AAA where I hope he will light it up and force the Indians into giving him a shot.
Meanwhile, Jose Flores has pitched 3 innings for Seattle and given up 3 runs on 4 hits and a walk. The odds of him making Seattle out of spring training are just as long as they were when he was picked in the Rule 5 draft in December. I hope we work out a deal for him and throw in one of our ML extras just to get a reasonable minor leaguer back. That is, Flores and, say, Nix or Joe Smith for a "B" prospect.
I really want to see: Nick Weglarz take off this year, Jess Todd get a chance out of ST, Vinnie Pestano make the opening day roster, Jordan Brown get his Wally Pipp shot this year and turn it into a career and, finally, no one else be lost off the 40-man roster for another AAAA player. While Lou Marson at AAA may be better in the short term for Lou Marson, Lou Marson in the majors is better for the organization as we don't have to clear a 40-man spot for the winner of the Luke Carlin/Paul Phillips/Juan Apodaca hot dog race. Plus, Marson gets further training in his eventual ML role: backup catcher. In addition, the thought of retreads Chad Huffman or Travis Buck making our opening day roster on a team destined to lose 90+ games just makes me ill. Playing them does nothing for the long-term future of this franchise. Of course they look good in ST, they are motivated and putting it all on the line whereas other guys are just trying to get into shape. I say let Buck and Huffman go to AAA and hit their way back to the majors by exceptional performances down there. If it is not a mirage let them prove it in AAA. In the meantime, go with the guys on your 40-man, including Carrera. If you are going to add someone to the 40 at this point, it should be Jordan Brown and not Buck or Huffman.
3/7/11 More of the same with retreads
"It's believed the Indians signed Johnson, who will report to camp next week, as protection should Matt LaPorta or Travis Hafner falter this year."
So says the Plain Dealer. Sooooo, Jordan Brown is not an option, I guess. The Indians have screwed over this guy so much it is unbelievable.
More of the same from the cheap Tribe who refuses to give rookies extended looks unless they don't have any other option.
3/6/11 Terry, you're asking the wrong question, man!
Reading Terry Pluto today (I do that every time he writes something) it strikes me that there is one thing he fails to mention in his column.
The Indians are CONSIDERING Travis Buck and Chad Huffman and are intrigued by Buck. However, what Terry didn't say was that this is just folly. Yeah, one time in one hundred this type of thing works out. That means there are 99 sucker bets played wasting time and money for the teams playing them.
What Terry should have asked is WHY the Indians were considering adding a guy like Buck, who could only get a minor league contract and is one of dozens of guys with exactly the same story (previous BRIEF good performance followed by injuries). He should also have been asking WHY to even consider a retread like Buck when you have internal options, some already on the 40-man roster, in a year where we are likely to lose 90+ games again.
Ezequiel Carrera can play CF well. Maybe not on a world championship team but well enough for a team destined to lose that many games. Jordan Brown is passable as a LFer and Austin Kearns can play left and right. With Choo and Duncan (even though I don't like Duncan for the same reasons as above) we already have enough OFers.
I love Terry Pluto's writing. But I have to ask myself when reporting that the Indians were considering Buck, why not ask why? Travis Buck is a symptom of bad management. If a guy is 95% likely to be a AAAA player and 5% likely to be a rehab success, the question should be, with all the internal options the Indians have AND the fact they would have to likely remove someone from the 40-man roster to add Buck, why bother?
Now, on to the other topic I found intriguing in Mr. Pluto's column: Aaron Laffey
Mr. Pluto said the reason the Indians traded Laffey was his lack of arm strength in camp. While that is truly revealing it doesn't explain trading him. At worst, put him at AAA and hope that he regains arm strength. He certainly knows how to pitch at the ML level and Chad Durbin, another guy who couldn't get a ML contract except from us, is no better a long-term option than Laffey. Heck, it is no worse and maybe a little better to work through your own reclamation projects than other people's, right?
So, while I love Terry Pluto's writing and reporting, I question why he isn't asking the question on what the Indians are trying to do: Why, in 2011, are you contemplating looking at anything other than internal options?
David Huff = Cliff Lee?
I have been saying for some time that I thought David Huff could be our comeback player of the year and have been pointing out the parallels between him and Cliff Lee.
It is early in ST but things are looking promising.
My point here is to remind all of us on how we, as fans, and the Indians, as an organization, gave up on Brandon Phillips and Jeremy Guthrie and how we tried to give up on Cliff Lee (proposed Jason Bay trade that Pittsburgh pulled out on). David Huff has many similarities to Cliff Lee although probably not identical situations. Still, we screwed up with the other guys, we need to have patience with Huff. There is a legitimate chance that he could be a quality #3 by the end of the season, maybe higher if he really gets his act together.
BTW, doesn't that non-trade point out the ineptitude of two organizations: Us trying to trade Cliff Lee and Pittsburgh refusing to take him!
LaPorta and Brantley
So far these guys are not turning out to be what Shapiro needs to explain the laughable trade of CC Sabathia a few summers back. But, however, they are turning out to be what was easily projected of them at the time. I see Brantley as being a weak-armed slap hitter he was when we traded for him. BTW, Shapiro at the time denied he was a slap hitter, all statistical evidence to the contrary. At the time I said LaPorta could easily be Rob Deer Part Deux and probably had the upside of Russell Branyan with a few less strikeouts but no better defense. I still stick to those predictions.
LaPorta and Brantley better pick it up or, like the Phillips and Guthrie losses, fans will have to start retrenching in a year or so and saying how bad they thought the CC Sabathia trade was at the time.
Sunday, March 6, 2011
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
I had to laugh......
In 2002 the Indians were struggling mightily and had already given up, trading Bartolo Colon. A minor leaguer at Buffalo was capturing the notice of Indians' beat writers who were asking why the Indians didn't bring the kid up. The kid's name was Chris Coste. I was one of those people even though I was only really writing as a forum participant. I made a case, one that I would make over and over, to give the kid a chance in a losing season instead of seeing the likes of Bill Selby and others get their umpteenth shot at the majors. Why not give the kid his first chance?
I remember as if it were yesterday, a writer asking Mark Shapiro a question to which he bristled, indicating that it would be him, and not the writers, who decided who came up from the minors and when and who was a prospect and who wasn't. Basically, he was telling the fans and the writers to stuff it because he didn't think Coste was a prospect. Well, you know what, Shapiro was wrong. While none of us who wanted him called up thought he was going to be an all-star (heck, he was 28 at the time), we all thought it was worth a chance to give him a shot to find out what we had in him. Maybe he was a late-bloomer
Well, that winter the Indians wanted to re-sign him but he saw the writing on the wall (and in the newspapers). Although the Indians said they liked Coste, he probably knew that it meant they liked him as AAA fodder.
I mean, these people got that they were not going to compete in 2003, right? Yet they couldn't even start the rebuild right by giving one of their own a shot in a losing season. Sound like a familiar scenario.
It is.
This administration has constantly and I mean CONSTANTLY chosen grizzled, dime-a-dozen veterans over giving their prospects a chance in losing seasons. OVER and OVER again choosing undeserving veterans over young players, some of whom went on to be good major leaguers after not being given a fair chance in Cleveland.
Well, Coste went on to have only a modest ML career that lasted 866 ABs with 23 HR and a .272 average, doing what intrigued us then about him: catch and play some first and third, but he does have a WS ring and he was a productive bit player. Why? Because someone gave the rookie a chance instead of bringing in dime-a-dozen ML veteran number 1,025.
So why as I rehashing this today? Well, I just read that the Indians traded a very, very useable and versatile LHP in Aaron Laffey to the Mariners for 25 year old minor league second baseman named Matt Lawson. He would play in AAA this year except that we HAVE two secondbasemen playing there, putting him about 54th on the Indians depth chart at second base. Well, not that low but with Phelps and Kipnis in front of you, you might as well be 54th.
Lawson's big claim to fame in his career is that he was the throw-in minor leaguer that Seattle got with the real prospects they received from trading Cliff Lee to Texas last summer. Maybe Shapiro felt if he couldn't get Lee he might be able to make his pathetic Lee-to-Philadelphia trade result look a little bit better by trading for someone who someone ELSE got for Cliff Lee.
So, we get little return for Laffey who should have probably stayed here and, if we traded him, should have brought more than a 25 year old who has never played in AAA and who is at one of the positions of greatest strength in the minors of this organization.
Now why does that piss me off you may ask? Because the reason we traded Laffey was to clear a roster spot for Chad Durbin. So, not only is Durbin going to block a rookie reliever from getting ML innings that they have earned and need, now he has cost us a homegrown young player. Not saying that Laffey is a worldbeater but, a month ago, if someone had asked you who you would have rather had on your team, Chad Durbin or Aaron Laffey, I think 99% of us would have said Aaron Laffey. '
Yet, now Laffey is gone and Durbin is here. Which makes me wonder: do the Indians REALLY think they are going to compete this year? I mean, if they didn't think that why would they bring in the veteran Durbin when they could have just kept Laffey? Durbin has no future here and if we were going the DFA Shelly Duncan to fit Durbin on the roster well, that wasn't ideal but I could rationalize it (see my Dangerous Game) post below.
But now that I realize that the Indians essentially gave Laffey, a guy with some upside and useability when we get back to being competitive, away for very little useable return and probably very little actual return, the only logical thing I can think of is that the Indians felt they needed Durbin if they were going to be able to have a chance to win this year.
Did I really just say that? The Indians truly think they have a chance to win this year? I think they do and, in so thinking, have had Shapiro and Antonetti join the top 50 most stupid people in the United States, 2011 edition.
Geez, really? Trade a useable player for a fringe prospect just to clear a roster slot for a dime-a-dozen, unneeded 30-something ML reliever who couldn't even get a ML contract until one of the worst teams in baseball (that would be us) offered one to him? Really?
So, someone out there, help me out here. Why do the signing of Durbin and the trading of Laffey for essentially nothing make sense to any of you?
Why indeed!
I remember as if it were yesterday, a writer asking Mark Shapiro a question to which he bristled, indicating that it would be him, and not the writers, who decided who came up from the minors and when and who was a prospect and who wasn't. Basically, he was telling the fans and the writers to stuff it because he didn't think Coste was a prospect. Well, you know what, Shapiro was wrong. While none of us who wanted him called up thought he was going to be an all-star (heck, he was 28 at the time), we all thought it was worth a chance to give him a shot to find out what we had in him. Maybe he was a late-bloomer
Well, that winter the Indians wanted to re-sign him but he saw the writing on the wall (and in the newspapers). Although the Indians said they liked Coste, he probably knew that it meant they liked him as AAA fodder.
I mean, these people got that they were not going to compete in 2003, right? Yet they couldn't even start the rebuild right by giving one of their own a shot in a losing season. Sound like a familiar scenario.
It is.
This administration has constantly and I mean CONSTANTLY chosen grizzled, dime-a-dozen veterans over giving their prospects a chance in losing seasons. OVER and OVER again choosing undeserving veterans over young players, some of whom went on to be good major leaguers after not being given a fair chance in Cleveland.
Well, Coste went on to have only a modest ML career that lasted 866 ABs with 23 HR and a .272 average, doing what intrigued us then about him: catch and play some first and third, but he does have a WS ring and he was a productive bit player. Why? Because someone gave the rookie a chance instead of bringing in dime-a-dozen ML veteran number 1,025.
So why as I rehashing this today? Well, I just read that the Indians traded a very, very useable and versatile LHP in Aaron Laffey to the Mariners for 25 year old minor league second baseman named Matt Lawson. He would play in AAA this year except that we HAVE two secondbasemen playing there, putting him about 54th on the Indians depth chart at second base. Well, not that low but with Phelps and Kipnis in front of you, you might as well be 54th.
Lawson's big claim to fame in his career is that he was the throw-in minor leaguer that Seattle got with the real prospects they received from trading Cliff Lee to Texas last summer. Maybe Shapiro felt if he couldn't get Lee he might be able to make his pathetic Lee-to-Philadelphia trade result look a little bit better by trading for someone who someone ELSE got for Cliff Lee.
So, we get little return for Laffey who should have probably stayed here and, if we traded him, should have brought more than a 25 year old who has never played in AAA and who is at one of the positions of greatest strength in the minors of this organization.
Now why does that piss me off you may ask? Because the reason we traded Laffey was to clear a roster spot for Chad Durbin. So, not only is Durbin going to block a rookie reliever from getting ML innings that they have earned and need, now he has cost us a homegrown young player. Not saying that Laffey is a worldbeater but, a month ago, if someone had asked you who you would have rather had on your team, Chad Durbin or Aaron Laffey, I think 99% of us would have said Aaron Laffey. '
Yet, now Laffey is gone and Durbin is here. Which makes me wonder: do the Indians REALLY think they are going to compete this year? I mean, if they didn't think that why would they bring in the veteran Durbin when they could have just kept Laffey? Durbin has no future here and if we were going the DFA Shelly Duncan to fit Durbin on the roster well, that wasn't ideal but I could rationalize it (see my Dangerous Game) post below.
But now that I realize that the Indians essentially gave Laffey, a guy with some upside and useability when we get back to being competitive, away for very little useable return and probably very little actual return, the only logical thing I can think of is that the Indians felt they needed Durbin if they were going to be able to have a chance to win this year.
Did I really just say that? The Indians truly think they have a chance to win this year? I think they do and, in so thinking, have had Shapiro and Antonetti join the top 50 most stupid people in the United States, 2011 edition.
Geez, really? Trade a useable player for a fringe prospect just to clear a roster slot for a dime-a-dozen, unneeded 30-something ML reliever who couldn't even get a ML contract until one of the worst teams in baseball (that would be us) offered one to him? Really?
So, someone out there, help me out here. Why do the signing of Durbin and the trading of Laffey for essentially nothing make sense to any of you?
Why indeed!
Saturday, February 26, 2011
The Dangerous Game
Major League Service Time
Agents loooooooooooove for their clients to start earning it.
Players loooooooooooove to start earning it because their salaries go from $14,000 or so a year to allmost half a million dollars, minimum.
Teams haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaate to start that service time clock because it means that arbitration and, after that, free agency, gets closer. So teams guard that service time, measuring it to the last iota, trying to wring as much cheap baseball out of players who are playing not only for their current salary but for that big payday down the road. If you can make the stick a little longer that has the carrot on it, the better it is for the teams.
So, teams try to hold players down in the minors even though they may be ready for their first shot at the majors IF that team feels there is an advantage to it. And, guess what? That REALLY ticks off these players and their agents and creates a stigma on the organization that does effect the system from top to bottom. It's a dangerous game, but here is one reason teams play it.
You hear all the time about that window of opportunity to win that teams have: certain players are approaching free agency, your team is getting old, the teams in your division are getting stronger. They all are factors in teams thinking that the window is closing on them.
For some teams, like the Indians, that window is closed but not yet nailed shut. It's possible it can be opened back up.
For current Indians veterans who are almost out the door to other places: Sizemore, Hafner and others, they may not be around when the window opens up again.
The next generation, the future cornerstones of this team, are still around for a few years: Carmona, Masterson, Choo, Astrocab, Chris Perez, etc. and they will certainly be here when we become competitive.
The guys with some ML experience under their belt are getting ready for their second season: Talbot, Herrmann, LaPorta, Brantley, Santana, Donald. They will be around for a while and, hopefully, will serve as the biggest part of veteran leadership during the Indians' next run.
But what about the hot prospects: Chisenhall, Kipnis, Phelps, Weglarz, Pomeranz, White, De la Cruz, etc.? Those guys are banging on the door and there are prospects a year behind them waiting for their chance to contribute.
So, do you rush the Chisenhall group to the majors? Teams will tell you no. The Indians won't compete this year. With luck, they could compete next year but certainly in 2013. By then some of our cornerstones will be approaching free agency but we still will have most of them around.
What the Indians will likely do is try to get some of our young guys up starting in August. Why? If they come up too early and stay the whole season they will be eligible for arbitration after their second full season in the majors (Super 2 status). That leads to higher salaries and, if these players make the team out of spring training and stay in the majors the whole year, one less productive year the Indians get out of them. So the delicate balance is to not bring a guy up too soon but, at the same time, bring him up IN TIME to start his on-the-job training that will make him ready WHEN we are competitive.
Why am I mentioning this now?
I think some of what you are seeing in these questionable FA signings the Indians have been making (Chad Durbin, Orlando Cabrera and even Austin Kearns) is an attempt by the Indians to limit service time. Cabrera limits Phelps' service time and also Kipnis' and the domino effect of Donald at 3B will keep Chiz in the minors longer. Kearns keeps our outfielders like Weglarz down on the farm and even Jordan Brown is affected by that, if you think, as I do, that he still has some potential. Durbin limits the service time our rookie relievers will get.
Our excess starting pitching will keep White and Pomeranz from logging service time although both still need some polish before we should start their service clocks.
So maybe these questionable signings have two purposes: First to give some more veteran leadership and, second, to limit service time. Hey, I think it's not a good plan as it perpetuates this organization's history of dissing prospects (Brandon Phillips, Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Giles and others) for more veteran alternatives (Ramon Vazquez, Paul Byrd and David Justice) but if it extends the number of years that window is open, the next time it opens up, the better it works for me.
So, there you have it. My attempt at spin on why the Indians have ventured into this joke of signing borderline FAs who won't help when the window re-opens again. Let's hope I am right because, if they really believe these guys were signed to help the team win this year, they all need to stop smoking what they are smoking.
Agents loooooooooooove for their clients to start earning it.
Players loooooooooooove to start earning it because their salaries go from $14,000 or so a year to allmost half a million dollars, minimum.
Teams haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaate to start that service time clock because it means that arbitration and, after that, free agency, gets closer. So teams guard that service time, measuring it to the last iota, trying to wring as much cheap baseball out of players who are playing not only for their current salary but for that big payday down the road. If you can make the stick a little longer that has the carrot on it, the better it is for the teams.
So, teams try to hold players down in the minors even though they may be ready for their first shot at the majors IF that team feels there is an advantage to it. And, guess what? That REALLY ticks off these players and their agents and creates a stigma on the organization that does effect the system from top to bottom. It's a dangerous game, but here is one reason teams play it.
You hear all the time about that window of opportunity to win that teams have: certain players are approaching free agency, your team is getting old, the teams in your division are getting stronger. They all are factors in teams thinking that the window is closing on them.
For some teams, like the Indians, that window is closed but not yet nailed shut. It's possible it can be opened back up.
For current Indians veterans who are almost out the door to other places: Sizemore, Hafner and others, they may not be around when the window opens up again.
The next generation, the future cornerstones of this team, are still around for a few years: Carmona, Masterson, Choo, Astrocab, Chris Perez, etc. and they will certainly be here when we become competitive.
The guys with some ML experience under their belt are getting ready for their second season: Talbot, Herrmann, LaPorta, Brantley, Santana, Donald. They will be around for a while and, hopefully, will serve as the biggest part of veteran leadership during the Indians' next run.
But what about the hot prospects: Chisenhall, Kipnis, Phelps, Weglarz, Pomeranz, White, De la Cruz, etc.? Those guys are banging on the door and there are prospects a year behind them waiting for their chance to contribute.
So, do you rush the Chisenhall group to the majors? Teams will tell you no. The Indians won't compete this year. With luck, they could compete next year but certainly in 2013. By then some of our cornerstones will be approaching free agency but we still will have most of them around.
What the Indians will likely do is try to get some of our young guys up starting in August. Why? If they come up too early and stay the whole season they will be eligible for arbitration after their second full season in the majors (Super 2 status). That leads to higher salaries and, if these players make the team out of spring training and stay in the majors the whole year, one less productive year the Indians get out of them. So the delicate balance is to not bring a guy up too soon but, at the same time, bring him up IN TIME to start his on-the-job training that will make him ready WHEN we are competitive.
Why am I mentioning this now?
I think some of what you are seeing in these questionable FA signings the Indians have been making (Chad Durbin, Orlando Cabrera and even Austin Kearns) is an attempt by the Indians to limit service time. Cabrera limits Phelps' service time and also Kipnis' and the domino effect of Donald at 3B will keep Chiz in the minors longer. Kearns keeps our outfielders like Weglarz down on the farm and even Jordan Brown is affected by that, if you think, as I do, that he still has some potential. Durbin limits the service time our rookie relievers will get.
Our excess starting pitching will keep White and Pomeranz from logging service time although both still need some polish before we should start their service clocks.
So maybe these questionable signings have two purposes: First to give some more veteran leadership and, second, to limit service time. Hey, I think it's not a good plan as it perpetuates this organization's history of dissing prospects (Brandon Phillips, Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Giles and others) for more veteran alternatives (Ramon Vazquez, Paul Byrd and David Justice) but if it extends the number of years that window is open, the next time it opens up, the better it works for me.
So, there you have it. My attempt at spin on why the Indians have ventured into this joke of signing borderline FAs who won't help when the window re-opens again. Let's hope I am right because, if they really believe these guys were signed to help the team win this year, they all need to stop smoking what they are smoking.
Curly, Mo and Larry
And Chad Durbin makes 3.
The Indians HAD the following options for their bullpen:
Closer: Chris Perez
Long man: Josh Tomlin, Aaron Laffey
Setup men: Tony Sipp, Rafael Perez, Jensen Lewis, Joe Smith, Frank Hermann, Jess Todd, Vinnie Pestano, Josh Judy, Zach Putnam and Justin Germano
Even with an 8 man bullpen, that's 13 guys for those 8 slots and 11 guys for the 6 setup slots. And that's not even counting Joe Martinez who they will apparently develop as a starter.
Now, I will grant you that you, in hindsight, can make a case for Austin Kearns in that Trevor Crowe and Grady Sizemore are apparently not going to be ready for the start of the season due to surgery.
You can make a case for Orlando Cabrera is you agree that you don't want to risk everything on the chance that Luis Valbuena will hit .250 and play reasonable defense.
So I will grant the Indians a pass on these three moves. Still, we probably lost Josh Rodriguez to bring Cabrera's stability to the infield. That's too much.
But Durbin? I don't think that his signing makes sense at all unless you question whether Chris Perez is healthy or can go through a whole season as closer now that the league has had a chance to think about him a little more.
When you look at the Indians projected 25-man roster, it will probably contain Jayson Nix, Shelly Duncan, Orlando Cabrera, Austin Kearns and Durbin. That is 1/5 of the roster on AAAA guys or rent-a-veterans who have no future with this club and are just eating resources. While each is very jettisonable on a moment's notice as we don't have a lot of financial resources tied up in the lot of them, 1/5 of a 90+ loss team's opening day roster being these types of players would insinuate that our farm system at the upper levels is weak at their positions. That is absolutely just the opposite which is why this roster distribution makes no sense at all. NONE.
If we are trying to compete I see it all the way. But c'mon! There is no way this team competes. Without Sizemore it is essentially the same level of talent as last year and we know how that turned out, even with our play in meaningless games at the end of the season.
If you are renting these guys for a few months just to give guys in the minors or important major leaguers time to get polished or heal, respectively, fine. It may also help to build these young guys into major leaguers by seeing how the game is played right.
Let's hope that's what it is. If they are doing this in spite of real prospects being ready or if they block those prospects because of the presence of these guys, then the three of them clearly become the three stooges to Shapiro/Antonetti's rendition of Laurel and Hardy.
The Indians HAD the following options for their bullpen:
Closer: Chris Perez
Long man: Josh Tomlin, Aaron Laffey
Setup men: Tony Sipp, Rafael Perez, Jensen Lewis, Joe Smith, Frank Hermann, Jess Todd, Vinnie Pestano, Josh Judy, Zach Putnam and Justin Germano
Even with an 8 man bullpen, that's 13 guys for those 8 slots and 11 guys for the 6 setup slots. And that's not even counting Joe Martinez who they will apparently develop as a starter.
Now, I will grant you that you, in hindsight, can make a case for Austin Kearns in that Trevor Crowe and Grady Sizemore are apparently not going to be ready for the start of the season due to surgery.
You can make a case for Orlando Cabrera is you agree that you don't want to risk everything on the chance that Luis Valbuena will hit .250 and play reasonable defense.
So I will grant the Indians a pass on these three moves. Still, we probably lost Josh Rodriguez to bring Cabrera's stability to the infield. That's too much.
But Durbin? I don't think that his signing makes sense at all unless you question whether Chris Perez is healthy or can go through a whole season as closer now that the league has had a chance to think about him a little more.
When you look at the Indians projected 25-man roster, it will probably contain Jayson Nix, Shelly Duncan, Orlando Cabrera, Austin Kearns and Durbin. That is 1/5 of the roster on AAAA guys or rent-a-veterans who have no future with this club and are just eating resources. While each is very jettisonable on a moment's notice as we don't have a lot of financial resources tied up in the lot of them, 1/5 of a 90+ loss team's opening day roster being these types of players would insinuate that our farm system at the upper levels is weak at their positions. That is absolutely just the opposite which is why this roster distribution makes no sense at all. NONE.
If we are trying to compete I see it all the way. But c'mon! There is no way this team competes. Without Sizemore it is essentially the same level of talent as last year and we know how that turned out, even with our play in meaningless games at the end of the season.
If you are renting these guys for a few months just to give guys in the minors or important major leaguers time to get polished or heal, respectively, fine. It may also help to build these young guys into major leaguers by seeing how the game is played right.
Let's hope that's what it is. If they are doing this in spite of real prospects being ready or if they block those prospects because of the presence of these guys, then the three of them clearly become the three stooges to Shapiro/Antonetti's rendition of Laurel and Hardy.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
2011 Draft - Ready for another college starting pitcher?
Imagine it's June and the Indians make their first round selection in the 2011 first-year player draft. The Indians' representative or the commissioner or whoever it will be this year says something like:
With the 8th pick of the first round the Cleveland Indians select _______, _HP, from the University of ________"
That is exactly what happened the last two years with Alex White (2009) and Drew Pomeranz (2010).
Well, it is likely to happen again and here is why:
1. The Indians are priming for another mini-dynasty and what they need right now from this draft is a solid guy who can contribute very soon after being drafted..
2. The strength of this draft, at the top, is college starting pitching and the position players, after Anthony Rendon, pale in comparison to those pitchers..
3. The Indians feel that they will be able to get an above slot talent at the 67th pick this year, very similar to what they got with LeVon Washington last year with the 55th pick. The reason is that there are so many teams with multiple picks before the Indians pick in the second round that there is a high likelihood that some teams will take signability picks whose talent may not equal their draft slot but whose bonus will be below slot or at slot. When you consider that the Rays have 11 picks in the first 75 selections, the Blue Jays 6 all of which are included in the record THIRTY extra picks before the second round even begins, a situation like this has historically added up to a number of lower talents drafted higher for the teams with multiple picks to save money. As I mentioned earlier the Rays will have to spend close to $10 million just to sign slot talent on their picks in the top two rounds.
All this adds up to the Indians having what essentially amounts to more like the 58th pick in this draft. That is, they are likely to get the 58th best player (or higher) on their board which we hope is of the order of talent of Washington.
I think the Indians will go this way in the draft:
1. College pitcher
2. HS position player
3. College postion player
4. College pitcher
5. College position player
After that, I hope it is Katie bar the door with the Indians doing a repeat of last year with the focus this time, again, on high-priced HS talent to prop up the lower levels of the farm system even more. It is, in fact, those levels that will fuel the end of the run once our young players start hitting free agency again. The only difference this year is that they need to find a way to get more HS pitchers on the order of TJ House and even Clayton Cook signed in those later rounds this year. I also think they need to go back to the well that got them guys like Josh Judy, Erik Stiller, Neil Wagner and Dallas Cawiezell. Although only Judy has worked out I see this as a very successful approach by the Indians. That is, use some later round picks on guys who project as solid 6th-7th inning guys in the majors if they reach their potential.
Now, who will that first round pitcher be?
My money right now is on Trevor Bauer from UCLA. He pitched tonight for the first time this spring:
http://www.uclabruins.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2010-2011/ucla02.html
and he is in the second tier of college pitchers after Gerrit Cole, Matt Purke, Taylor Jungmann and Sonny Gray. Cole also pitches for UCLA which may or may not help Bauer fall to the Indians.
There is also the possibility that the Indians would take John Stilson who had sick K/IP numbers last year for Texas A&M doing a long man role striking out 114 batters in 79 innings. At a D-I school like A&M, that is pretty amazing.
Stilson pitched on Friday night against a weak LeMoyne team but was dominant:
http://www.aggieathletics.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2010-2011/ta01-lm.html
There is also an outside chance that we could end up with Danny Hultzen (Virginia) or Matt Barnes (Connecticut). This is where the scouts come in but I would really we get Bauer or Stilson as Hultzen reminds me of Huff and Sowers (possibility of being a pitchability lefty) and I am just inherently frightened by pitchers from the Northeast, although I think Charlie Nagy was from Connecticut, wasn't he? From what I have read on Barnes I would say Nagy wouldn't be a bad comp but I still would like a warm-weather pitcher.
Hultzen dominated on Friday:
http://uabsports.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2010-2011/uab-01.html
whereas Barnes did well on Saturday agaisnt Minnesota.
http://www.gophersports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=38638&SPID=3298&DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=8400&ATCLID=205099602
So, there you have it. I predict the Indians will pick one of those four pitchers: Bauer, Stilson, Hultzen or Barnes. If Purke or Jungmann fall to the Indians and the above guys are snapped up instead, you gotta pop one of those two although the only reason they would fall would be due to bonus demands. That is why I hope it is one of the 4 above. I think they can be signed for slot which leaves us money for the later round flyer picks.
It's early so a lot can change but I see all 4 of those guys being there when Cleveland drafts and I see each of them being a safe pick for the Indians because, barring injury, each has a chance to be a solid ML starting pitcher, probaby a #2 upside with a #4-5 downside.
More on the draft later on.
With the 8th pick of the first round the Cleveland Indians select _______, _HP, from the University of ________"
That is exactly what happened the last two years with Alex White (2009) and Drew Pomeranz (2010).
Well, it is likely to happen again and here is why:
1. The Indians are priming for another mini-dynasty and what they need right now from this draft is a solid guy who can contribute very soon after being drafted..
2. The strength of this draft, at the top, is college starting pitching and the position players, after Anthony Rendon, pale in comparison to those pitchers..
3. The Indians feel that they will be able to get an above slot talent at the 67th pick this year, very similar to what they got with LeVon Washington last year with the 55th pick. The reason is that there are so many teams with multiple picks before the Indians pick in the second round that there is a high likelihood that some teams will take signability picks whose talent may not equal their draft slot but whose bonus will be below slot or at slot. When you consider that the Rays have 11 picks in the first 75 selections, the Blue Jays 6 all of which are included in the record THIRTY extra picks before the second round even begins, a situation like this has historically added up to a number of lower talents drafted higher for the teams with multiple picks to save money. As I mentioned earlier the Rays will have to spend close to $10 million just to sign slot talent on their picks in the top two rounds.
All this adds up to the Indians having what essentially amounts to more like the 58th pick in this draft. That is, they are likely to get the 58th best player (or higher) on their board which we hope is of the order of talent of Washington.
I think the Indians will go this way in the draft:
1. College pitcher
2. HS position player
3. College postion player
4. College pitcher
5. College position player
After that, I hope it is Katie bar the door with the Indians doing a repeat of last year with the focus this time, again, on high-priced HS talent to prop up the lower levels of the farm system even more. It is, in fact, those levels that will fuel the end of the run once our young players start hitting free agency again. The only difference this year is that they need to find a way to get more HS pitchers on the order of TJ House and even Clayton Cook signed in those later rounds this year. I also think they need to go back to the well that got them guys like Josh Judy, Erik Stiller, Neil Wagner and Dallas Cawiezell. Although only Judy has worked out I see this as a very successful approach by the Indians. That is, use some later round picks on guys who project as solid 6th-7th inning guys in the majors if they reach their potential.
Now, who will that first round pitcher be?
My money right now is on Trevor Bauer from UCLA. He pitched tonight for the first time this spring:
http://www.uclabruins.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2010-2011/ucla02.html
and he is in the second tier of college pitchers after Gerrit Cole, Matt Purke, Taylor Jungmann and Sonny Gray. Cole also pitches for UCLA which may or may not help Bauer fall to the Indians.
There is also the possibility that the Indians would take John Stilson who had sick K/IP numbers last year for Texas A&M doing a long man role striking out 114 batters in 79 innings. At a D-I school like A&M, that is pretty amazing.
Stilson pitched on Friday night against a weak LeMoyne team but was dominant:
http://www.aggieathletics.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2010-2011/ta01-lm.html
There is also an outside chance that we could end up with Danny Hultzen (Virginia) or Matt Barnes (Connecticut). This is where the scouts come in but I would really we get Bauer or Stilson as Hultzen reminds me of Huff and Sowers (possibility of being a pitchability lefty) and I am just inherently frightened by pitchers from the Northeast, although I think Charlie Nagy was from Connecticut, wasn't he? From what I have read on Barnes I would say Nagy wouldn't be a bad comp but I still would like a warm-weather pitcher.
Hultzen dominated on Friday:
http://uabsports.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/stats/2010-2011/uab-01.html
whereas Barnes did well on Saturday agaisnt Minnesota.
http://www.gophersports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=38638&SPID=3298&DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=8400&ATCLID=205099602
So, there you have it. I predict the Indians will pick one of those four pitchers: Bauer, Stilson, Hultzen or Barnes. If Purke or Jungmann fall to the Indians and the above guys are snapped up instead, you gotta pop one of those two although the only reason they would fall would be due to bonus demands. That is why I hope it is one of the 4 above. I think they can be signed for slot which leaves us money for the later round flyer picks.
It's early so a lot can change but I see all 4 of those guys being there when Cleveland drafts and I see each of them being a safe pick for the Indians because, barring injury, each has a chance to be a solid ML starting pitcher, probaby a #2 upside with a #4-5 downside.
More on the draft later on.
Thursday, February 10, 2011
OCab makes 0 Sense
Is there someone hurt that we don't know about? This FO is doing some unexplainable things. You dump Carlos Rivero off the roster and he is picked up IMMEDIATELY. You expose Josh Rodriguez to the Rule 5 and he is the first guy picked. Then you bring back Jayson Nix and you sign Orlando Cabrera. Really?
Fans, welcome to Major League IV, the barfquel.
Talk about Julio Franco part deux. Hell, at least Franco could hit when we were playing him at a position he couldn't play.
Unless someone is really hurt and we don't know about it, there is no reason for a move like this. Waste of money, waste of time.
And what the hell does this mean about Adam Everett.
It does give us yet another opportunity to dump Shelley Duncan or Jayson Nix off the roster, though.
What is wrong with this FO? I mean, really. This has got to be the most stupid off-season in Indians' history: let prospects go for nothing. Bring in more worthless (to a 95 loss team in the making) veterans. This is becoming the KC Royals East. Amazing!
Finally the Indians have a chance to take back the city from the Browns and the Cavs and they pull crap like this that really does nothing to advance the rebuild of this franchise and, in fact, goes the opposite direction.
You can spin it how you want but we are losing close to 100 games this year and teams with that destiny play Josh Rodriguez....not sign Orlando Cabrera and keep Jayson Nix on the roster.
Fans, welcome to Major League IV, the barfquel.
Talk about Julio Franco part deux. Hell, at least Franco could hit when we were playing him at a position he couldn't play.
Unless someone is really hurt and we don't know about it, there is no reason for a move like this. Waste of money, waste of time.
And what the hell does this mean about Adam Everett.
It does give us yet another opportunity to dump Shelley Duncan or Jayson Nix off the roster, though.
What is wrong with this FO? I mean, really. This has got to be the most stupid off-season in Indians' history: let prospects go for nothing. Bring in more worthless (to a 95 loss team in the making) veterans. This is becoming the KC Royals East. Amazing!
Finally the Indians have a chance to take back the city from the Browns and the Cavs and they pull crap like this that really does nothing to advance the rebuild of this franchise and, in fact, goes the opposite direction.
You can spin it how you want but we are losing close to 100 games this year and teams with that destiny play Josh Rodriguez....not sign Orlando Cabrera and keep Jayson Nix on the roster.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Indians Top 100 prospects update made!
I have now received my BA prospect handbook. Here are a few updates in perusing through it.
1. Respecting BA's rights, I have generally updated my top 100 prospects list as to where guys fell in the BA top 30 for the Indians. Out of the 30 players here are the stats:
1. 25 of my top 30 fell in BA's top 31, with 11 being within two places of where BA ranked them. I note that this is easy to do in the top7 or so as most rankings should have those very similar, although not necessarily in the exact order.
2. Most interesting rankings:
Tampa Bay's #31: Isaias Velasquez OF - This is the guy the Indians traded for Juan Salas. You know what I think about trading prospects for AAAA guys. Arrrrgh. Salas was 30 when we traded for him...his last year in organized baseball. BTW, Tampa Bay had the #3 ranked organization.
The Indians ranked 7th overall among organizations
Lonnie Chisenhall's composite ranking from BA was significant higher than MLB's prospect ranking (36) for him. Jason Kipnis' was ranked at the end of the top 50 in two of the three rankings for BA.
1. Respecting BA's rights, I have generally updated my top 100 prospects list as to where guys fell in the BA top 30 for the Indians. Out of the 30 players here are the stats:
1. 25 of my top 30 fell in BA's top 31, with 11 being within two places of where BA ranked them. I note that this is easy to do in the top7 or so as most rankings should have those very similar, although not necessarily in the exact order.
2. Most interesting rankings:
Tampa Bay's #31: Isaias Velasquez OF - This is the guy the Indians traded for Juan Salas. You know what I think about trading prospects for AAAA guys. Arrrrgh. Salas was 30 when we traded for him...his last year in organized baseball. BTW, Tampa Bay had the #3 ranked organization.
The Indians ranked 7th overall among organizations
Lonnie Chisenhall's composite ranking from BA was significant higher than MLB's prospect ranking (36) for him. Jason Kipnis' was ranked at the end of the top 50 in two of the three rankings for BA.
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