Well, that didn't go so well! So now we are on to game 5.
We will be at home. We will have the AL Cy Young award winner on the mound. Miller and Allen will be rested. While nothing is ever a lock, this gives us a great chance to win, right?
The only problem is in baseball there are no style points. The one with the most runs wins and no matter how well your team pitches, if it doesn't score runs you don't win.
Just look at the Nationals yesterday. Scherzer has a no-hitter through 6 innings. The only problem is that his team could only muster 3 hits and 1 run for the entire game. It left his great pitching performance vulnerable to any hiccup and the bullpen with the same vulnerability. The end result is that the Cubs got a run in the 7th and one in the 8th to win 2-1.
If the Yankees needed a blueprint of how to beat a Cy Young award winner at his best, there you have it. Just make sure the other team's offense sucks. Just like in Game 3.
The post-season is about performance and, usually, performance above what is seen in the regular season, even if only for short spurts (insert Jay Bruce in games 1 and 2).
We have a bunch of holes in our lineup. DH, C, 3B. That is the given. The issue is that Lindor isn't hitting and Ramirez isn't hitting. Without those two there is a chance we won't be able to score any runs. Another 5 feet on Lindor's drive in the second game and we might not be having this conversation...but the problem would still exist as that would have given Lindor only two hits in 3 games at that point. We need to hit better. We need to find a way. People need to get it done. Heck, Kyle Schwarber hadn't played almost the whole season and he came back to help the Cubs win last year. We need some of that plus our main guys need to hit.
No matter how well we pitch we need to score some runs. I mean, if I am Francona I am even considering putting my backup catcher as my DH. That's how bad the hitting situation is. I mean Encarnacion on one leg is better than Brantley whose only hit this series was on a meatball over the middle of the plate with the Indians behind by 4 and could give the illusion he has found his stroke. Hmmmm?!?
So, the formula for winning is obviously to have Kluber be Kluber and the bullpen to be in shutdown mode. But we need to hit. Lindor and Ramirez need big games. We need to get about 6 hits and some runs/RBIs out of Jackson, Bruce, Santana and Kipnis and we need to get game 2-like production out of our DH, C, 3B (probably 4 times on base, good small ball and no double plays in 12 plate appearances).
I have never been as at ease about a crucial game as I am about this one. Not because I think we have it in the bag, because that is not what I think. The reason I am at ease is that the formula for winning this game is simple: just hit....or go home for the winter. No matter how the Indians pitch, if they don't hit, it doesn't matter. Just ask Max Scherzer.
Tuesday, October 10, 2017
Monday, October 9, 2017
Thoughts from Game 3 and thinking about Game 4
Look, this is baseball. Francona talks about being able to survive the ups and downs of the playoffs.
I was reading Tom Verduzzo's (sp?) column about how Indians fans should be aware of what chokers the Indians are as they have lost 16 of 20 elimination games in the playoffs over the years. Well, I have been drinking the Francona koolaid and I am not fazed by that attempt at baiting Indians fans or giving Yankees fans hope...or trying to get people to watch to up the ratings.
Last night's game does give us some things to talk about. Here are a few:
1. Michael Brantley is lost. Mark McGwire, late in his career, was having lower extremity problems and said something like: 'I have no base. You can't hit without a base.' By that he meant if you are having leg/foot problems you can't generate any power. What's left is rolling over a lot of balls and being late of pitches that you would normally hit. Brantley is put in an unusual situation. He wants to play and the Indians need him to be productive. This isn't working. Time to hope Encarnacion comes back...but with a bum ankle he has no base either.
2. Regarding Encarnacion, I said that in the playoffs you can survive two holes in your lineup and, with the Indians' pitching, maybe even three nearly automatic outs. But 4 or more guys who can't hit in the playoff environment leads to what you saw last night. In the 9-8 game our lower hitters actually helped out and they were productive in the 4-0 game, in terms of getting on base. Right now we have Urshela, our catcher and our DH as unproductive. We could survive that IF Ramirez was being Ramirez. But he isn't. He currently looks like the current version of Michael Brantley. If there has been a goat so far in this series it is Ramirez. He really needs to pick it up for the rest of the playoffs or the rest of the playoffs won't be that long.
3. Jay Bruce has been effective but what you see is what you get. Don't expect him to hit more than .250 in the playoffs with some power. I would like to see him walk some and be more selective. The way he and Ramirez were flailing at Tanaka's dirtballs was more like I would have expected out of Yandy Diaz, that is, out of a rookie.
Regarding tonight's game, it will be interesting. Severino has had a great year. I don't expect his night tonight to end like his playoff game against Minnesota so Bauer needs to be on. As far as Bauer, I don't think he is blowing smoke about the short rest. I think he really does have the ability, maybe more than any other pitcher on the Indians' roster, of being effective on short rest. Still, he has never done it so there is some fear that he might not be as in control as he was in Game 1. And,no, Mr. Verduzzo, that isn't because of any predisposition to the Indians losing elimination games. It's just because he hasn't done it before. But, as usual, I trust in Tito. I would rather have Bauer starting than Tomlin, especially against the Yankees. And I don't know what happened to Salazar, although I expect to see him eat innings tonight if the game gets ugly for the Indians early.
This is playoff baseball. As Livingston said in the Plain Dealer today, there will be angst. As Francona said, he tries to set his team up to handle that angst and think towards the next game.
What the Indians have accomplished this season gives me peace. It really does, just like last year's 7 game loss in the WS left me peaceful on what the Indians accomplished. After this series, after this season, I will still have that peace and still be a diehard Indians' fan. Nothing will change. Go Tribe!
I was reading Tom Verduzzo's (sp?) column about how Indians fans should be aware of what chokers the Indians are as they have lost 16 of 20 elimination games in the playoffs over the years. Well, I have been drinking the Francona koolaid and I am not fazed by that attempt at baiting Indians fans or giving Yankees fans hope...or trying to get people to watch to up the ratings.
Last night's game does give us some things to talk about. Here are a few:
1. Michael Brantley is lost. Mark McGwire, late in his career, was having lower extremity problems and said something like: 'I have no base. You can't hit without a base.' By that he meant if you are having leg/foot problems you can't generate any power. What's left is rolling over a lot of balls and being late of pitches that you would normally hit. Brantley is put in an unusual situation. He wants to play and the Indians need him to be productive. This isn't working. Time to hope Encarnacion comes back...but with a bum ankle he has no base either.
2. Regarding Encarnacion, I said that in the playoffs you can survive two holes in your lineup and, with the Indians' pitching, maybe even three nearly automatic outs. But 4 or more guys who can't hit in the playoff environment leads to what you saw last night. In the 9-8 game our lower hitters actually helped out and they were productive in the 4-0 game, in terms of getting on base. Right now we have Urshela, our catcher and our DH as unproductive. We could survive that IF Ramirez was being Ramirez. But he isn't. He currently looks like the current version of Michael Brantley. If there has been a goat so far in this series it is Ramirez. He really needs to pick it up for the rest of the playoffs or the rest of the playoffs won't be that long.
3. Jay Bruce has been effective but what you see is what you get. Don't expect him to hit more than .250 in the playoffs with some power. I would like to see him walk some and be more selective. The way he and Ramirez were flailing at Tanaka's dirtballs was more like I would have expected out of Yandy Diaz, that is, out of a rookie.
Regarding tonight's game, it will be interesting. Severino has had a great year. I don't expect his night tonight to end like his playoff game against Minnesota so Bauer needs to be on. As far as Bauer, I don't think he is blowing smoke about the short rest. I think he really does have the ability, maybe more than any other pitcher on the Indians' roster, of being effective on short rest. Still, he has never done it so there is some fear that he might not be as in control as he was in Game 1. And,no, Mr. Verduzzo, that isn't because of any predisposition to the Indians losing elimination games. It's just because he hasn't done it before. But, as usual, I trust in Tito. I would rather have Bauer starting than Tomlin, especially against the Yankees. And I don't know what happened to Salazar, although I expect to see him eat innings tonight if the game gets ugly for the Indians early.
This is playoff baseball. As Livingston said in the Plain Dealer today, there will be angst. As Francona said, he tries to set his team up to handle that angst and think towards the next game.
What the Indians have accomplished this season gives me peace. It really does, just like last year's 7 game loss in the WS left me peaceful on what the Indians accomplished. After this series, after this season, I will still have that peace and still be a diehard Indians' fan. Nothing will change. Go Tribe!
Friday, October 6, 2017
Question for the off day tomorrow: Do we replace Encarnacion on the roster
For those of us who have had sprained ankles tonight's was especially gruesome. When I was younger they said 6 weeks to fully recover. I know with modern medicine this can be faster but how many of us think Encarnacion will be ready in the next 2 days, or 4 days, or even the next two weeks?
He apparently left the locker room on crutches wearing a boot to protect his ankle.
Now, MLB rules allow a team to petition to replace an injured player (Boston just did it with Eduardo Nunez who hurt his knee in game 1). If they would replace Encarnacion he would be done for this playoff series AND the league championship series, if the Indians get that far.
He could come back for the World Series which is scheduled to start on Oct. 24th. That's 18 days from when it was injured which MIGHT happen, depending on if it looked worse than it really is.
So, the question of the day is: do you replace Encarnacion now or go the rest of this series and see how is progressing before you replace him and, as a result, go with a short roster the rest of this series.
If you replace him who do you replace him with? Another pitcher for the rest of this series? Yandy Diaz as a replacement hitter, especially when we see how weak Michael Brantley appears to be right now?
You still would get to readjust your roster next series if you replace Encarnacion. He just wouldn't be eligible.
So, this is a good topic for Saturday. What would you do?
He apparently left the locker room on crutches wearing a boot to protect his ankle.
Now, MLB rules allow a team to petition to replace an injured player (Boston just did it with Eduardo Nunez who hurt his knee in game 1). If they would replace Encarnacion he would be done for this playoff series AND the league championship series, if the Indians get that far.
He could come back for the World Series which is scheduled to start on Oct. 24th. That's 18 days from when it was injured which MIGHT happen, depending on if it looked worse than it really is.
So, the question of the day is: do you replace Encarnacion now or go the rest of this series and see how is progressing before you replace him and, as a result, go with a short roster the rest of this series.
If you replace him who do you replace him with? Another pitcher for the rest of this series? Yandy Diaz as a replacement hitter, especially when we see how weak Michael Brantley appears to be right now?
You still would get to readjust your roster next series if you replace Encarnacion. He just wouldn't be eligible.
So, this is a good topic for Saturday. What would you do?
Game 2 Takeaways
First, Yan Gomes has to feel better than he did last year at this time. His confidence looked like it was building toward the end of the regular season and this game can only help. His defense was great and his hitting was timely. I was screaming at the TV for the Indians not to give up....Gomes never did.
Second, Tito hardly ever makes a mistake. Letting Brantley DH was trying to catch lightning in a bottle. Well, I have seen Brantley for more than a week now and he is absolutely no help to this team right now. Chisenhall should have been the DH when Encarnacion got hurt. Hopefully that will be the way it is on Sunday. Brantley should be saved for the Kirk Gibson moment in a game.
Third, regarding Encarnacion he had not looked good this series up to the time of his injury. He looked, frankly, like he did in April and May. I mean EXACTLY like he did in those months. Losing him, and I am sure we have lost him for the rest of this series and most likely the next if we get that far. Losing him on paper is a huge loss but losing the April Encarnacion would not be that big of a loss.
Fourth, Kluber looked so bad. Mental note: Starting him on 5 days rest might not have been that good an idea and it makes me wonder what Carrasco will look like on, what is it, 8 days rest.
Fifth, the bullpen, except for Clevinger, looked good again. Tomlin really gutted it out. Just like last year, getting more out than his tools would suggest he has to give. And he gets a victory.
Sixth, Jose Ramirez really looks mad. Unfortunately usually lost follow mad which, eventually, is followed by a hot streak. Can we skip over the remaining mad and completely skip the lost and go right into the hot streak? We need the hot Jose now more than ever. If I have to watch another AB like his bases loaded one tonight I think I am going to puke.
Seventh, I am really glad for Lindor. He could be Ramirez part deux right now if not for that grand slam off the fair pole.
Eighth, is that Austin Jackson or is that Rajai Davis wearing Austin Jackson's uniform?
Nineth, we need Chisenhall to be the April-May version now more than ever. Right now he just looks like a HB above Brantley....a lot like Gomes looked pre-injury last year.
Tenth, and final. Bruce. Doesn't he just epitomize what a post-season veteran should play like? I wish Encarnacion had not gotten hurt because I think watching Bruce play might have elevated Edwin's game. Hopefully it elevates everyone's game. I am pretty sure it has helped Lindor and some of the other players elevate their games already. What a great pickup by us.
Second, Tito hardly ever makes a mistake. Letting Brantley DH was trying to catch lightning in a bottle. Well, I have seen Brantley for more than a week now and he is absolutely no help to this team right now. Chisenhall should have been the DH when Encarnacion got hurt. Hopefully that will be the way it is on Sunday. Brantley should be saved for the Kirk Gibson moment in a game.
Third, regarding Encarnacion he had not looked good this series up to the time of his injury. He looked, frankly, like he did in April and May. I mean EXACTLY like he did in those months. Losing him, and I am sure we have lost him for the rest of this series and most likely the next if we get that far. Losing him on paper is a huge loss but losing the April Encarnacion would not be that big of a loss.
Fourth, Kluber looked so bad. Mental note: Starting him on 5 days rest might not have been that good an idea and it makes me wonder what Carrasco will look like on, what is it, 8 days rest.
Fifth, the bullpen, except for Clevinger, looked good again. Tomlin really gutted it out. Just like last year, getting more out than his tools would suggest he has to give. And he gets a victory.
Sixth, Jose Ramirez really looks mad. Unfortunately usually lost follow mad which, eventually, is followed by a hot streak. Can we skip over the remaining mad and completely skip the lost and go right into the hot streak? We need the hot Jose now more than ever. If I have to watch another AB like his bases loaded one tonight I think I am going to puke.
Seventh, I am really glad for Lindor. He could be Ramirez part deux right now if not for that grand slam off the fair pole.
Eighth, is that Austin Jackson or is that Rajai Davis wearing Austin Jackson's uniform?
Nineth, we need Chisenhall to be the April-May version now more than ever. Right now he just looks like a HB above Brantley....a lot like Gomes looked pre-injury last year.
Tenth, and final. Bruce. Doesn't he just epitomize what a post-season veteran should play like? I wish Encarnacion had not gotten hurt because I think watching Bruce play might have elevated Edwin's game. Hopefully it elevates everyone's game. I am pretty sure it has helped Lindor and some of the other players elevate their games already. What a great pickup by us.
Game 1 in the books
No one really knows what will happen day-to-day in baseball. That's why they play the games.
On paper the next two games we have our best two pitchers but victory is never guaranteed.
One thing for sure is that we have to hit better to avoid 2-1 games. If we hit well and have decent luck we will be in a good position to win.
That being said, let's talk about Game 1 last night.
You know when you are working out and you see yourself in the mirror from day to day and you don't see any difference and then one day a friend who hasn't seen you in 6 months tells you how great you look? Well that is the fate of the Cleveland Indians' fan. Sometimes we forget how good our pitching is. We really do. We focus on Kluber. We focus on Carrasco. We focus on Miller. We EXPECT success but only because we have seen it so many times that now the fear that comes with being an Indians' fan melts away.
But last night was different. Bauer was amazing and against a lineup that just two nights before has dismantled the ace of the Twins, Ervin Santana. Now, no one is going to mistake Santana for Corey Kluber, but Santana is good. The Yankees beat a good pitcher on Tuesday. On Thursday they faced Trevor Bauer and he totally disarmed the best offense in baseball. Our 3rd best starter! Yeah, we can all give Tito credit as we should. He is a genius. And we hit just enough to win. But Bauer is the one who had to do it on the mound. Can he last for 10 years throwing this many curve balls? Probably not. But while he is throwing them successfully, he is being dominant.
So, sit back Indians' fans and, despite anything that happens the rest of the year, realize that we now have three potential aces on the Indians' pitching staff. We didn't trade for these aces, although we did trade, early in their careers for the big 3. But we have them. Enjoy them and enjoy the rest of the season.
Now let's go score some big runs off of the Yankees today and take game 2. Yesterday was the Yankees game to steal in this series and Bauer and Bruce shut them down. Now we need to press the issue and win today.
On paper the next two games we have our best two pitchers but victory is never guaranteed.
One thing for sure is that we have to hit better to avoid 2-1 games. If we hit well and have decent luck we will be in a good position to win.
That being said, let's talk about Game 1 last night.
You know when you are working out and you see yourself in the mirror from day to day and you don't see any difference and then one day a friend who hasn't seen you in 6 months tells you how great you look? Well that is the fate of the Cleveland Indians' fan. Sometimes we forget how good our pitching is. We really do. We focus on Kluber. We focus on Carrasco. We focus on Miller. We EXPECT success but only because we have seen it so many times that now the fear that comes with being an Indians' fan melts away.
But last night was different. Bauer was amazing and against a lineup that just two nights before has dismantled the ace of the Twins, Ervin Santana. Now, no one is going to mistake Santana for Corey Kluber, but Santana is good. The Yankees beat a good pitcher on Tuesday. On Thursday they faced Trevor Bauer and he totally disarmed the best offense in baseball. Our 3rd best starter! Yeah, we can all give Tito credit as we should. He is a genius. And we hit just enough to win. But Bauer is the one who had to do it on the mound. Can he last for 10 years throwing this many curve balls? Probably not. But while he is throwing them successfully, he is being dominant.
So, sit back Indians' fans and, despite anything that happens the rest of the year, realize that we now have three potential aces on the Indians' pitching staff. We didn't trade for these aces, although we did trade, early in their careers for the big 3. But we have them. Enjoy them and enjoy the rest of the season.
Now let's go score some big runs off of the Yankees today and take game 2. Yesterday was the Yankees game to steal in this series and Bauer and Bruce shut them down. Now we need to press the issue and win today.
Wednesday, October 4, 2017
Thoughts on the tentative ALDS roster
First, I put my trust in Tito. What he says goes. His only managerial mistakes in the past has been to let his locker room get away from him when he was in Boston. Or at least that is my perception of his managerial mistakes. He brought genius out of necessity last year in his use of his bullpen. I trust him to do the same this year.
Now, let's take a look at what he is proposing:
Starters: I totally disagree with his rotation. Carrasco and Kluber should pitch 4 of the 5 games in the ALDS with one of them (Kluber in game 4) being on short rest. That being said, I trust the analytics and Tito's starters. I also disagree with the use of Tomlin in Game 4 but I don't believe that will actually happen. So, again, I defer to Francona.
Bullpen: If we are really honest, there was no need for McAllister on this roster. A check from last year shows that he was only used in mop-up roles in the post-season. If that is as far as your trust goes on a guy, then I don't see any need for him on the post-season roster. Plus, if you look closely down the stretch this year, he wasn't that effective when brought into high leverage situations. I already covered Goody in my earlier post. I just don't see Tito having the confidence to use him in meaningful situations in the post-season. The only decision I do not agree with is Otero. He is an extreme groundball pitcher and could be useful in certain high-leverage situations. That being said, I trust in Tito that including Salazar is much more of a plus than losing Otero is a minus. He could have done the easy thing but he didn't. And I commend him for that and hope it all works out. If it doesn't it was still a great and novel idea.
As far as his use of Clevinger and Salazar (and maybe Tomlin) in unique ways, I am on-board. The only issue is that these guys weren't in these roles this year much, if at all, so there is the unknown of how they will respond. I still remember the Joaquin Andujar meltdown for the Cardinals some years back when things didn't go well for him after being brought in in a new role for him in the 7th game of the world series. That being said, I love the flexibility this gives the Indians in limiting the innings of Miller, Shaw and Allen to keep them somewhat fresh for their late inning assignments.
I wanted to comment on Tyler Olson. He has responded to almost every challenge this year. At first I thought having Clevinger and Salazar use as dynamic (multiple roles and a variety of lengths of outings) relievers might make it hard to get in a situational guy like Olson. After thinking about it, however, I think this only limits Olson a little. By that I mean you wouldn't want him coming in to replace Clevinger after Clevinger has faced one batter. That would be against what I believe is the dynamic reliever idea. But in thinking about it I can see various situations (e.g., replacing a starter in a jam when a tough left-handed batter is up or having Shaw go 1/3 of an inning, Olson 1/3 of an inning and Allen an inning and a third at the end of game) where Olson can be use effectively. I think Francona even did that at least once down the stretch.
I still am unconvinced about Joe Smith but I now get my wish for him to prove what it cost us to get him. Let's hope he succeeds as we gave away more for him than we realize right now (compare what we gave away to get Jay Bruce just 9 days later). I can see the need for him as a situational righty who can also get some left-handed batters out and I hope it works out. Again, I trust Francona.
As far as the position players, I think we can sum it up by saying that Francona knows what he wants to do in the post-season and he is going to do it. The only thing he has not protected himself from with this roster is injuries. I think he is more susceptible to those if, say Kipnis or Urshela go down. He trusts in his veterans and assumes that they will strap 'em up and step up to the task in the post-season, even if they have significant rust on them. The only real surprises are no Yandy Diaz and the inclusion of Greg Allen and Erik Gonzalez on the roster. It is obvious how much Francona favors defense in the post-season and the fact that Diaz is a rookie of questionable offensive upside made more questionable by this being his first post-season. If Greg Allen gets even one AB in the post-season it is probably not a good thing for the Indians but he could steal us a run here or there as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. This is far from the first time a team has used a speedy, defense-only guy as the 25th man. Let's just hope we don't get into a Michael Martinez situation. However, even is we do, I actually have more faith in Greg Allen than in Martinez as Allen is an unknown who might sneak something in on our opponent. I mean, it wasn't until David Justice came to play here that we found out that he hits lefties really well, especially lefties like Jim Poole. Imagine how much of a secret weapon Allen might be with many less reps to get a handle on him.
So there you have it. Will Terry Francona break new ground with his dynamic reliever approach with Salazar and Clevinger? Will he be the first manager in recent (if ever) post-season history to intentionally go into a post-season with the idea of using tandem starters (hint!), maybe even three of them in the same game? Will the Indians win this post-season with this roster or will Francona be second-guessed through the next generation of Indians fans? Time will tell.
Now, let's take a look at what he is proposing:
Starters: I totally disagree with his rotation. Carrasco and Kluber should pitch 4 of the 5 games in the ALDS with one of them (Kluber in game 4) being on short rest. That being said, I trust the analytics and Tito's starters. I also disagree with the use of Tomlin in Game 4 but I don't believe that will actually happen. So, again, I defer to Francona.
Bullpen: If we are really honest, there was no need for McAllister on this roster. A check from last year shows that he was only used in mop-up roles in the post-season. If that is as far as your trust goes on a guy, then I don't see any need for him on the post-season roster. Plus, if you look closely down the stretch this year, he wasn't that effective when brought into high leverage situations. I already covered Goody in my earlier post. I just don't see Tito having the confidence to use him in meaningful situations in the post-season. The only decision I do not agree with is Otero. He is an extreme groundball pitcher and could be useful in certain high-leverage situations. That being said, I trust in Tito that including Salazar is much more of a plus than losing Otero is a minus. He could have done the easy thing but he didn't. And I commend him for that and hope it all works out. If it doesn't it was still a great and novel idea.
As far as his use of Clevinger and Salazar (and maybe Tomlin) in unique ways, I am on-board. The only issue is that these guys weren't in these roles this year much, if at all, so there is the unknown of how they will respond. I still remember the Joaquin Andujar meltdown for the Cardinals some years back when things didn't go well for him after being brought in in a new role for him in the 7th game of the world series. That being said, I love the flexibility this gives the Indians in limiting the innings of Miller, Shaw and Allen to keep them somewhat fresh for their late inning assignments.
I wanted to comment on Tyler Olson. He has responded to almost every challenge this year. At first I thought having Clevinger and Salazar use as dynamic (multiple roles and a variety of lengths of outings) relievers might make it hard to get in a situational guy like Olson. After thinking about it, however, I think this only limits Olson a little. By that I mean you wouldn't want him coming in to replace Clevinger after Clevinger has faced one batter. That would be against what I believe is the dynamic reliever idea. But in thinking about it I can see various situations (e.g., replacing a starter in a jam when a tough left-handed batter is up or having Shaw go 1/3 of an inning, Olson 1/3 of an inning and Allen an inning and a third at the end of game) where Olson can be use effectively. I think Francona even did that at least once down the stretch.
I still am unconvinced about Joe Smith but I now get my wish for him to prove what it cost us to get him. Let's hope he succeeds as we gave away more for him than we realize right now (compare what we gave away to get Jay Bruce just 9 days later). I can see the need for him as a situational righty who can also get some left-handed batters out and I hope it works out. Again, I trust Francona.
As far as the position players, I think we can sum it up by saying that Francona knows what he wants to do in the post-season and he is going to do it. The only thing he has not protected himself from with this roster is injuries. I think he is more susceptible to those if, say Kipnis or Urshela go down. He trusts in his veterans and assumes that they will strap 'em up and step up to the task in the post-season, even if they have significant rust on them. The only real surprises are no Yandy Diaz and the inclusion of Greg Allen and Erik Gonzalez on the roster. It is obvious how much Francona favors defense in the post-season and the fact that Diaz is a rookie of questionable offensive upside made more questionable by this being his first post-season. If Greg Allen gets even one AB in the post-season it is probably not a good thing for the Indians but he could steal us a run here or there as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. This is far from the first time a team has used a speedy, defense-only guy as the 25th man. Let's just hope we don't get into a Michael Martinez situation. However, even is we do, I actually have more faith in Greg Allen than in Martinez as Allen is an unknown who might sneak something in on our opponent. I mean, it wasn't until David Justice came to play here that we found out that he hits lefties really well, especially lefties like Jim Poole. Imagine how much of a secret weapon Allen might be with many less reps to get a handle on him.
So there you have it. Will Terry Francona break new ground with his dynamic reliever approach with Salazar and Clevinger? Will he be the first manager in recent (if ever) post-season history to intentionally go into a post-season with the idea of using tandem starters (hint!), maybe even three of them in the same game? Will the Indians win this post-season with this roster or will Francona be second-guessed through the next generation of Indians fans? Time will tell.
Monday, October 2, 2017
2016 Draft - a look back
My initial impressions of the 2016 draft was that the Indians managed their money well and got some upside in terms of HS players and some low-ceiling but low floor college pitches in the first 10 rounds and some below the radar college players who fell to them in the rounds past round 10. To do this they sacrificed a bit and picked some college seniors who in the first 10 rounds who were obviously cheap.
.
We are now about a year and a half away from that draft and I wanted to revisit it to see how that draft looks now.
Bottom line: The draft still looks good although, at this point, I have to give it a "B" as their top picks are still developing. But as I said previously, this draft hinges on Benson and Jones. If they both tank this draft is pretty weak. If they both succeed and some of the other draftees listed below just continue on their current development path, this draft is a real strong one. We have already used two of these picks to help the Indians win this year so, in that sense, this draft already has a leg up as being a good draft.
Let's look at this draft pick-by-pick:
Will Benson - He still has some big question marks in terms of his hit tool. At times he looked like he could turn on a good fastball and at times his swing looked too long. He shows speed and power and was tapping into that power more as this season drew to an end. He could be ready for a breakout year next year at low A ball. In any case, his eventual upside or lack thereof might not be determined for another couple of years. One thing is clear so far: he is not exceeding expectations and, for me, is a little underwhelming at this point.
Nolan Jones - He was deemed as one of the best HS hitters in the 2016 draft class. So far he has lived up to that with a good batting eye and a good hit tool. Still, he has virtually no power which will not play well at 3B and his defense is still shaky. Jones has proven to me that, barring injury, he will play in the majors. The question is at what performance level. Another guy who has not overwhelmed so far.
Logan Ice - To me, he is an overdraft. The Indians stacked the deck for him as far as having a successful first full season. Whereas many college juniors start their first full season in high A ball, Ice started and finished his season in LOW A Lake County. Even with that advantage Ice barely hit. He was a catch first guy in his first two years in college and hit some his 3rd year. However, that year now looks like a mirage. Still, the Indians do have a recent track record of developing hitting ability in defense first catchers so there is still some hope. However, Ice's development pathway has really slowed down and won't accelerate until he shows he can mash professional pitching in the low minors.
Aaron Civale/Shane Beiber - These two guys have been as advertised: strike-throwing advanced pitchers. However, using Adam Plutko as the yardstick for these types of pitchers, you can see how these guys can fade away if they don't go all Greg Maddux on their opponents. These guys look great so far but it is too early to tell if their stuff plays at AAA and in the majors.
Connor Capel - Low A ball success is not a good predictor of future success but Capel handled his assignment at Lake County fairly well. Again, by 'fairly' I mean that he didn't dominate AND he wasn't dominated, even though he was youngish for this league. His power-speed comination and the fact he showed some plate discipline while batting against pitchers more experienced than him is very promising. Right now the jury is still out on his long term projection but centerfielders who hit 20+ HRs, even in the low minors, have to be given some respect.
Ulysses Cantu - He was hurt last year and so started slowly and started fast this year. I thought he looked great and that the Indians found a bargain. However, he tailed off at the end of the season and didn't show as much power as I would have liked to see. The jury is still out on him but I think his development path may be getting very long at this point.
Michael Tinsley - He gets an incomplete. Next year, if he is healthy, we will get a better feel for what we have in thim
Andrew Lantrip - See Tinsley
Hosea Nelson - A toolsy guy, he was a stretch at #9 but I understand the gamble. Take a speedy, under the radar guy who will sign for slot or a little below.
Samad Taylor - He is already a success for the Indians as he was used to help get Joe Smith. So, from a draft perspective, this was an excellent pick on that alone. I think his upside is really good and, as I have said a couple of times, we will rue the Joe Smith trade down the road unless he is a big contributor this post-season.
Andrew Calica - He is as advertised. Good hit tool. Average to below average everything else. For an 11th round pick he is a good one because, frankly, anything you get from an 11th round pick who signed for near slot is gravy.
Zach Plesac - The injured college pitcher....see Vinnie Pestano. I think that is a good comp for Plesac and his results at the end of this season, after missing one entire pro season (half last year, half this year) with injury validate that comp...at least so far. Good pick that might turn into a great one.
Gavin Collins - You hope to be able to turn one good tool into something more with college guys you draft this late. So far Collins, also slowed by injury in the first year of his pro career, looks like a good pick at #13.
Mitch Longo - I cannot tell you how many MAC or even Ohio State guys we have selected in late rounds who were not very good over the years. Longo looked like just an organizational guy but, after missing a lot of the season with injury he finished the season strong at both Lake County and Lynchburg. I mean, this guy was SMOKIN' hot even through the abbreviated Carolina League playoffs. He had the best year of any of the 2016 hitters we drafted. This vaults him up to at least suspect if not low level prospect.
Ben Krauth - The typical college strike-throwing reliever drafted by the Indians in lower rounds, Krauth has had low minors success so, at this point, he is a very good pick. We will see if we get anything out of him but, as a LHP, there is always hope.
Dakody Clemmer/Skyler Arias - These guys get incompletes as their drug suspensions don't give us anything to analyze.
Trenton Brooks, Raymond Burgos, Michael Leftkewicz, Jonathan Laureano, Tanner Tully and Jamal Rutledge all look like organizational guys. Except for Laureano (who they still see with long term projection) and Tully (who established his minor league Josh Tomlin-like worth this year), I could see all of these guys being gone by the end of spring training next year.
Ryder Ryan - Again, he is already a success because he was used to get Jay Bruce. The Indians guessed right that Ryan's velocity could be harnessed with repeated reps in the pros, making him an attractive target for the Mets in that trade.
.
We are now about a year and a half away from that draft and I wanted to revisit it to see how that draft looks now.
Bottom line: The draft still looks good although, at this point, I have to give it a "B" as their top picks are still developing. But as I said previously, this draft hinges on Benson and Jones. If they both tank this draft is pretty weak. If they both succeed and some of the other draftees listed below just continue on their current development path, this draft is a real strong one. We have already used two of these picks to help the Indians win this year so, in that sense, this draft already has a leg up as being a good draft.
Let's look at this draft pick-by-pick:
Will Benson - He still has some big question marks in terms of his hit tool. At times he looked like he could turn on a good fastball and at times his swing looked too long. He shows speed and power and was tapping into that power more as this season drew to an end. He could be ready for a breakout year next year at low A ball. In any case, his eventual upside or lack thereof might not be determined for another couple of years. One thing is clear so far: he is not exceeding expectations and, for me, is a little underwhelming at this point.
Nolan Jones - He was deemed as one of the best HS hitters in the 2016 draft class. So far he has lived up to that with a good batting eye and a good hit tool. Still, he has virtually no power which will not play well at 3B and his defense is still shaky. Jones has proven to me that, barring injury, he will play in the majors. The question is at what performance level. Another guy who has not overwhelmed so far.
Logan Ice - To me, he is an overdraft. The Indians stacked the deck for him as far as having a successful first full season. Whereas many college juniors start their first full season in high A ball, Ice started and finished his season in LOW A Lake County. Even with that advantage Ice barely hit. He was a catch first guy in his first two years in college and hit some his 3rd year. However, that year now looks like a mirage. Still, the Indians do have a recent track record of developing hitting ability in defense first catchers so there is still some hope. However, Ice's development pathway has really slowed down and won't accelerate until he shows he can mash professional pitching in the low minors.
Aaron Civale/Shane Beiber - These two guys have been as advertised: strike-throwing advanced pitchers. However, using Adam Plutko as the yardstick for these types of pitchers, you can see how these guys can fade away if they don't go all Greg Maddux on their opponents. These guys look great so far but it is too early to tell if their stuff plays at AAA and in the majors.
Connor Capel - Low A ball success is not a good predictor of future success but Capel handled his assignment at Lake County fairly well. Again, by 'fairly' I mean that he didn't dominate AND he wasn't dominated, even though he was youngish for this league. His power-speed comination and the fact he showed some plate discipline while batting against pitchers more experienced than him is very promising. Right now the jury is still out on his long term projection but centerfielders who hit 20+ HRs, even in the low minors, have to be given some respect.
Ulysses Cantu - He was hurt last year and so started slowly and started fast this year. I thought he looked great and that the Indians found a bargain. However, he tailed off at the end of the season and didn't show as much power as I would have liked to see. The jury is still out on him but I think his development path may be getting very long at this point.
Michael Tinsley - He gets an incomplete. Next year, if he is healthy, we will get a better feel for what we have in thim
Andrew Lantrip - See Tinsley
Hosea Nelson - A toolsy guy, he was a stretch at #9 but I understand the gamble. Take a speedy, under the radar guy who will sign for slot or a little below.
Samad Taylor - He is already a success for the Indians as he was used to help get Joe Smith. So, from a draft perspective, this was an excellent pick on that alone. I think his upside is really good and, as I have said a couple of times, we will rue the Joe Smith trade down the road unless he is a big contributor this post-season.
Andrew Calica - He is as advertised. Good hit tool. Average to below average everything else. For an 11th round pick he is a good one because, frankly, anything you get from an 11th round pick who signed for near slot is gravy.
Zach Plesac - The injured college pitcher....see Vinnie Pestano. I think that is a good comp for Plesac and his results at the end of this season, after missing one entire pro season (half last year, half this year) with injury validate that comp...at least so far. Good pick that might turn into a great one.
Gavin Collins - You hope to be able to turn one good tool into something more with college guys you draft this late. So far Collins, also slowed by injury in the first year of his pro career, looks like a good pick at #13.
Mitch Longo - I cannot tell you how many MAC or even Ohio State guys we have selected in late rounds who were not very good over the years. Longo looked like just an organizational guy but, after missing a lot of the season with injury he finished the season strong at both Lake County and Lynchburg. I mean, this guy was SMOKIN' hot even through the abbreviated Carolina League playoffs. He had the best year of any of the 2016 hitters we drafted. This vaults him up to at least suspect if not low level prospect.
Ben Krauth - The typical college strike-throwing reliever drafted by the Indians in lower rounds, Krauth has had low minors success so, at this point, he is a very good pick. We will see if we get anything out of him but, as a LHP, there is always hope.
Dakody Clemmer/Skyler Arias - These guys get incompletes as their drug suspensions don't give us anything to analyze.
Trenton Brooks, Raymond Burgos, Michael Leftkewicz, Jonathan Laureano, Tanner Tully and Jamal Rutledge all look like organizational guys. Except for Laureano (who they still see with long term projection) and Tully (who established his minor league Josh Tomlin-like worth this year), I could see all of these guys being gone by the end of spring training next year.
Ryder Ryan - Again, he is already a success because he was used to get Jay Bruce. The Indians guessed right that Ryan's velocity could be harnessed with repeated reps in the pros, making him an attractive target for the Mets in that trade.
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