Friday, December 24, 2010
Happy Holidays, Peace and Good Will to All
Have a great holiday season and may your days be filled with peace, happiness and good will to all.
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Wheeling and Dealing: Part Deux
The Indians have been busy the last couple of weeks. Let's go over their moves and see how the logic of them stacks up:
Adam Everett: He was signed to a minor league FA deal. The only negative with minor league FA deals is if the guy you bring in blocks a true prospect from either playing time at a level or advancing from a lower level. Everett does neither. He also provides needed SS insurance in case Cabrera goes down and is utility infield depth. Now, if he ends up on the ML roster cosing Donald or even the much-maligned Luis Valbuena playing time, or, in being on the roster, stops Jason Kipnis or Cord Phelps from being promoted, then I have an issue with bringing in a veteran in another predictably losing season and the difference between his ML salary and the ML minimum a rookie would get to give us a few more meaningless wins on our chase to avoid finishing behind Kansas City and ending up in last place in the AL Central.
I will say this, however. If you could have found a way to roster Josh Rodriguez this signing would have been unnecessary. More about that later.
Austin Kearns: Bringing Kearns back makes some sense to me if the Indians think he can be a good example for younger players. We don't know who the player will be who is DFA'd, released or traded but if it is Shelley Duncan, then no great loss there nor is the substitution of Kearns for roster on next year's 25 man roster that disturbing as there are currently no OFers in the minors ready to play in the majors. Again, however, we are in a losing season and the difference between Kearn's base salary of $1.3 million (there are a number of fat incentives in it) and what we would pay a rookie could be used to sign draft picks. Who really cares if we have mercenary veterans on the field next year. We need to look at prospects. So I am neutral on this signing...but only since we replaced one unneeded and worthless (to the Indians) veteran with another.
12-23-10: The Indians removed Justin Germano from the roster. This is an odd move and it means, for now, the Indians continue their love affair with Shelley Duncan, a typical AAAA player who had his chance to remove that tag last year but, instead solidified it with a similar performance at an older age for another team besides the Yankees. Hopefully Duncan will be the next DFA. The DFA of Germano now further points out that there was room for Josh Rodriguez to be protected as Ger,ano could have been DFA'd earlier. The Indians may say that they have a greater chance of keeping Germano by making this move now but my response would be 'How do you really know" and "Even if that is the case, who cares if you lose a AAAA reliever whose career took him to Japan because he couldn't make the majors in the US."
Toru Murata: Again, cannon fodder for the minors and you can never have too much pitching. Still, our Far East signing is a guy released from a Japanese team? That's the equivalent of a guy released from a AA or AAA team. Maybe we find a bargain here but that would be great scouting and coaching the guy up because, on paper, this guy doesn't appear to be very good.
Travis Buck: An interesting signing. He has significant ML experience and I don't know, depending on how the ML roster shakes out, if he would be taking ABs away from a prospect at AAA. That being said we already have five outfielders: Sizemore, Crowe, Brantley, Choo and Kearns plus we have rookies like Carrera, Weglarz, Drennen and others in AAA and we have to find ABs for Jordan Brown, as well.
Summary: While I see the logic in some of these signings I harken back to how we set up our 40-man roster. We are bringing in OFers but had Duncan and Ezequiel Carrera on our 40-manML roster at the time the rosters were frozen. We have Jordan Henry one step behind Carrera at AA and not needing to be protected until after 2012 which, from his current trajectory, will put him in the majors at the time, anyway, and we let Jose Constanza walk in free agency. We had enough OFers already to stock a AAA and ML roster yet we signed two more. That doesn't make any sense to me, in light of exposing Rodriguez to the Rule 5..
Good roster management would have been to add Josh Rodriguez to the ML roster in November and remove Carrera. We are signing OFers around him that, with the returning OFers, make Carrera worthless. While losing Duncan for Kearns is no change, losing Rodriguez in the Rule 5 draft makes less sense now than it did at the time (it made no sense at the time) as Carrera appears to be filler in this organization's thinking and you don't lose guys in the Rule 5 draft with AAAA types (Nix, Duncan, Germano, among others), on you ML roster. You just don't.
So, while I applaud actually bringing in minor league FA's who might help in a pinch at positions we are not stacked at in the minors (although we ARE questionably stacked at OFer in AAA), these moves, in total, make me wonder why we exposed Rodriguez to the Rule 5 draft. My only guess is that we valued Rodriguez as little as we value Carrera. Time will tell if that is a mistake on the order of Brandon Phillips or an insignificant Rule 5 loss like Matt Whitney. Let's hope it's the latter A rebuilding organization can't afford to give up real prospects.
One final thought on this issue: Does the signing of OFers with ML experience point out that the Indians are pretty unsure if Grady Sizemore will be ready for the ML opener or if they question if he will ever be ready again? Don't know, just sayin' it is a disturbing possibility.
Adam Everett: He was signed to a minor league FA deal. The only negative with minor league FA deals is if the guy you bring in blocks a true prospect from either playing time at a level or advancing from a lower level. Everett does neither. He also provides needed SS insurance in case Cabrera goes down and is utility infield depth. Now, if he ends up on the ML roster cosing Donald or even the much-maligned Luis Valbuena playing time, or, in being on the roster, stops Jason Kipnis or Cord Phelps from being promoted, then I have an issue with bringing in a veteran in another predictably losing season and the difference between his ML salary and the ML minimum a rookie would get to give us a few more meaningless wins on our chase to avoid finishing behind Kansas City and ending up in last place in the AL Central.
I will say this, however. If you could have found a way to roster Josh Rodriguez this signing would have been unnecessary. More about that later.
Austin Kearns: Bringing Kearns back makes some sense to me if the Indians think he can be a good example for younger players. We don't know who the player will be who is DFA'd, released or traded but if it is Shelley Duncan, then no great loss there nor is the substitution of Kearns for roster on next year's 25 man roster that disturbing as there are currently no OFers in the minors ready to play in the majors. Again, however, we are in a losing season and the difference between Kearn's base salary of $1.3 million (there are a number of fat incentives in it) and what we would pay a rookie could be used to sign draft picks. Who really cares if we have mercenary veterans on the field next year. We need to look at prospects. So I am neutral on this signing...but only since we replaced one unneeded and worthless (to the Indians) veteran with another.
12-23-10: The Indians removed Justin Germano from the roster. This is an odd move and it means, for now, the Indians continue their love affair with Shelley Duncan, a typical AAAA player who had his chance to remove that tag last year but, instead solidified it with a similar performance at an older age for another team besides the Yankees. Hopefully Duncan will be the next DFA. The DFA of Germano now further points out that there was room for Josh Rodriguez to be protected as Ger,ano could have been DFA'd earlier. The Indians may say that they have a greater chance of keeping Germano by making this move now but my response would be 'How do you really know" and "Even if that is the case, who cares if you lose a AAAA reliever whose career took him to Japan because he couldn't make the majors in the US."
Toru Murata: Again, cannon fodder for the minors and you can never have too much pitching. Still, our Far East signing is a guy released from a Japanese team? That's the equivalent of a guy released from a AA or AAA team. Maybe we find a bargain here but that would be great scouting and coaching the guy up because, on paper, this guy doesn't appear to be very good.
Travis Buck: An interesting signing. He has significant ML experience and I don't know, depending on how the ML roster shakes out, if he would be taking ABs away from a prospect at AAA. That being said we already have five outfielders: Sizemore, Crowe, Brantley, Choo and Kearns plus we have rookies like Carrera, Weglarz, Drennen and others in AAA and we have to find ABs for Jordan Brown, as well.
Summary: While I see the logic in some of these signings I harken back to how we set up our 40-man roster. We are bringing in OFers but had Duncan and Ezequiel Carrera on our 40-manML roster at the time the rosters were frozen. We have Jordan Henry one step behind Carrera at AA and not needing to be protected until after 2012 which, from his current trajectory, will put him in the majors at the time, anyway, and we let Jose Constanza walk in free agency. We had enough OFers already to stock a AAA and ML roster yet we signed two more. That doesn't make any sense to me, in light of exposing Rodriguez to the Rule 5..
Good roster management would have been to add Josh Rodriguez to the ML roster in November and remove Carrera. We are signing OFers around him that, with the returning OFers, make Carrera worthless. While losing Duncan for Kearns is no change, losing Rodriguez in the Rule 5 draft makes less sense now than it did at the time (it made no sense at the time) as Carrera appears to be filler in this organization's thinking and you don't lose guys in the Rule 5 draft with AAAA types (Nix, Duncan, Germano, among others), on you ML roster. You just don't.
So, while I applaud actually bringing in minor league FA's who might help in a pinch at positions we are not stacked at in the minors (although we ARE questionably stacked at OFer in AAA), these moves, in total, make me wonder why we exposed Rodriguez to the Rule 5 draft. My only guess is that we valued Rodriguez as little as we value Carrera. Time will tell if that is a mistake on the order of Brandon Phillips or an insignificant Rule 5 loss like Matt Whitney. Let's hope it's the latter A rebuilding organization can't afford to give up real prospects.
One final thought on this issue: Does the signing of OFers with ML experience point out that the Indians are pretty unsure if Grady Sizemore will be ready for the ML opener or if they question if he will ever be ready again? Don't know, just sayin' it is a disturbing possibility.
Monday, December 20, 2010
What to make of the CC and Cliff Lee deals
OK, let's get this out of the way: Mark Shapiro did not do a good job in these trades. He traded for 1 or 2 dimensional players, injured players, and guys on down years or downslides, whichever you prefer. He gambled and he got burned. Two trades that should have made us competitive again by this year or 2012 gave us, at best, complimentary pieces.
When Philadelphia traded Lee to Seattle all the front office supportive bloggers said that it was a sign that Cliff Lee wasn't worth much in trade. Actually, they were breathing a collective sigh of relief because the Philly-Seattle trade didn't give people like me who hated both trades, any more ammunition to prove the trades sucked.
When Lee was traded to Texas from Seattle, when he had half a season left on his contract (we traded him when he had 1 1/2 seasons left on an incredibly cheap contract) the evidence again started to mount that the FO had screwed up the Lee trade. The on-field evidence of the poor return in both trades was mounting as none of the guys we got back could hit over .253 on the major league level and the pitchers were all either recovering from injuries or still in the minors, or both.
Now we have the same GM in Milwaukee who fleeced us out of CC, giving away his starting SS, one year removed from being the #1 prospect in the organzation, their #8 prospect last winter who hit .300+ in a late-season callup, its #1 prospect, Jake Odorizzi and uber- but troubled-prospect Jeremy Jeffress for SS Yuniesky Betancourt and two years of Zack Greinke and his 4.14 ERA, although Greinke is a true #1, like CC is, although CC is a special commodity as he is a hard-throwing lefthander.
Plus, remenber that Melvin also gave up a good deal to get starting pitcher Marcum from Toronto just a few weeks ago and the year before he traded for CC he traded good prospects just to get a middle reliever (Linebebrink).
So what do we make of all this? Melvin WILL pay a premium price IF he is dealing with a good trading partner AND he wants to 'go for it' AND he isn't dealing with a GM dealing from fear
Well clearly he wanted to go for it when he traded for CC and he was only getting 1/2 a season for CC but he also thought he would be getting two first round draft picks one year later in addition to that half year of CC.
The bottom line is what it has always been since the days of the CC trade. Shapiro choked on the CC deal and he choked on the Lee deal. And that is why we will struggle for at least the next couple of years (plus the three we have already struggled, counting the year we traded CC) IF we are even competitive at all in the next 4-5 years from now.
I am not saying I could have done any better, but obviously GMs trading with Melvin have. Just not our GM.....and we don't know when we will stop paying for that.
When Philadelphia traded Lee to Seattle all the front office supportive bloggers said that it was a sign that Cliff Lee wasn't worth much in trade. Actually, they were breathing a collective sigh of relief because the Philly-Seattle trade didn't give people like me who hated both trades, any more ammunition to prove the trades sucked.
When Lee was traded to Texas from Seattle, when he had half a season left on his contract (we traded him when he had 1 1/2 seasons left on an incredibly cheap contract) the evidence again started to mount that the FO had screwed up the Lee trade. The on-field evidence of the poor return in both trades was mounting as none of the guys we got back could hit over .253 on the major league level and the pitchers were all either recovering from injuries or still in the minors, or both.
Now we have the same GM in Milwaukee who fleeced us out of CC, giving away his starting SS, one year removed from being the #1 prospect in the organzation, their #8 prospect last winter who hit .300+ in a late-season callup, its #1 prospect, Jake Odorizzi and uber- but troubled-prospect Jeremy Jeffress for SS Yuniesky Betancourt and two years of Zack Greinke and his 4.14 ERA, although Greinke is a true #1, like CC is, although CC is a special commodity as he is a hard-throwing lefthander.
Plus, remenber that Melvin also gave up a good deal to get starting pitcher Marcum from Toronto just a few weeks ago and the year before he traded for CC he traded good prospects just to get a middle reliever (Linebebrink).
So what do we make of all this? Melvin WILL pay a premium price IF he is dealing with a good trading partner AND he wants to 'go for it' AND he isn't dealing with a GM dealing from fear
Well clearly he wanted to go for it when he traded for CC and he was only getting 1/2 a season for CC but he also thought he would be getting two first round draft picks one year later in addition to that half year of CC.
The bottom line is what it has always been since the days of the CC trade. Shapiro choked on the CC deal and he choked on the Lee deal. And that is why we will struggle for at least the next couple of years (plus the three we have already struggled, counting the year we traded CC) IF we are even competitive at all in the next 4-5 years from now.
I am not saying I could have done any better, but obviously GMs trading with Melvin have. Just not our GM.....and we don't know when we will stop paying for that.
Friday, December 17, 2010
Let's get international
A couple of things I know about the Indians and international amateur free agent signings:
1. It is more costly with greater projection to sign a Latin amateur than a US amateur.
2. The Indians have done fairly well (see Victor Martinez, Jeanmar Gomez, Fausto Carmona, Hector Rondon and others) going cheap in this market.
3. Like me, John Mirabelli thinks this market is overpriced.
Still, you have to pay if you want to compete. Here is a list of the international free agent signings this season (the signing period started July 2nd). The first 33 players on this list come from Baseball America's list of players predicted to get the top bonuses in this period. The rest are significant signings with some of the bonuses estimated based on media reports:
1. Esteilon Peguero, SS, Dominican Republic – SEA $2.8 million
2. Luis Heredia, RHP, Mexico – PIT $2.6 million
3. Adonis Cardona, RHP, Venezuala – TOR - $2.8 million
4. Renato Nunez, 3B, Venezuela – OAK $2.2 million
5. Eskarlin Vazquez, RF, Dominican Republic – DET (Danry?) - $1 million
6. Phillips Castillo, OF, Dominican Republic – SEA $2.2 million
7. Vicmal de la Cruz, CF, Dominican Republic – OAK
8. Rougned Odor, SS, Venezuela – Texas - $425,000
9. Wilmer Romero, CF, Dominican Republic – NYY
10. Ariel Ovando, OF, Dominican Republic – HOU $2.8 million
11. Humberto Arteaga, SS, Venezuela – KC $1.1 million
12. Jose Torres, RHP, Colombia – SEA - $851,000
13. Yorman Garcia, CF, Venezuela – ARI - $300,000
14. Gabriel Cenas, 3B, Venezuela – TOR - $700,000
15. Elvis Sanchez, 3B, Dominican Republic – NYM
16. Angel Mejias, LHP Venezuela – UNSIGNED
17. Yoel Araujo, CF, Dominican Republic – TOR $800,000
18. Jordi Calderon, 3B, Venezuela – SEA
19. Edwin Moreno, OF, Dominican Republic – SD - $500,000
20. Argy Raga, C, Venezuela – OAK
21. Alberto Triunfel, SS, Dominican Republic – Texas $300,000
22. Jose Tovar, LHP, Venezuela, COL - $350,000
23. Pedro Perez, 3B, Colombia – UNSIGNED
24. Yorman Landa, RHP, Venezuela – UNSIGNED
25. Vicente Lupo, OF, Venezuela – NYM $400,000
26. Antonio Gonzalez, SS, Dominican Republic – UNSIGNED
27. Geronimo Franzua, LHP, Dominican Republic – HOU $250,000
28. Ronny Mejias, SS, Venezuela – ARI - $300,000
29. Christopher Tamarez, SS, Dominican Republic – NYY - $650,000
30. Luis Abad, RHP, Dominican Republic – UNSIGNED
31. Felix Jorge, RHP, Dominican Republic – UNSIGNED
32. Javier Pimentel, SS, Dominican Republic – MIN $575,000
33. Anderson Gonzalez, SS, Venezuela – PHI
Other singificant signings:
Hector Veloz 3B BAL $300,000
Maricino Cabrera, RHP, ATL $300,000
Francisco Silva SS PHI $200,000
Reyson Zoquier, LHP, MIN $200,000
Carlos Matias, RHP STL $1.5 million
Jose Rafel DePaula RHP NYY
Milton Gomez RHP, MIL $350,000
Olivet Florentino SS, CIN $250,000
So, it looks like close to 20 teams spent significant money in Latin America this year. Seattle, Toronto, Oakland and the Yankees appeared to be the big winners followed by Houston, Arizona and the Mets.
Note also that KC and Pittsburgh spent big on the one significant guy they signed as did Detroit and St. Louis. Minnesota spent big on their one guy last year and even went for a lesser but relatively expensive guy this year.
So, what's my point? Although it is expensive, the Indians just can't ignore these top prospects due to cost. I think, like KC and Pittsburgh did this year and Mnnesota did last year, they should make one top talent ($1 million plus) signing every year for Latin America. I think this should be a different budget than the draft budget so that 2010's draft strategy can continue. I am not not saying spending like drunken sailors which is what Toronto, Seattle and Oakland did, but note that Minnesota's #3 prospect this year is Miguel Sano, the SS they signed for over $2 million last year. You spend, you get quality. You don't, you hope you find a diamond in the rough. The latter is really a tough way to go, although the Indians have been pretty proficient at it. I just think it is time to augment that strategy and maybe do away with their Dominican team or, more likely, split one with another cost-conscious organization. That is, stop signing quantity, start signing quality and integrate those guys into the US faster. Although this might create a little culture shock these guys are on the same Rule 5 signing clock as US high schoolers so its not like we have forever.
The Indians should NOT be big spenders in Latin America but they should spend big on ONE guy each year. Considering we spent $1 million each on Sean Smith and Nick Pesco a few years back, I think $1.5-2 million once a year in Latin America is warranted.
BTW, if you can get any of the remaining unsigned guys (see guys in red above) by signing them in the $200,000 range, I would do it in a heartbeat. Odor and Mejias I would obviously pay more for but I think we need to get someone from this class or it helps to create a hole in our organization at the lower levels.
At some point I will do a deeper dive into the ROI for these Latin signees over the last 5 years but I don't have the time now.
1. It is more costly with greater projection to sign a Latin amateur than a US amateur.
2. The Indians have done fairly well (see Victor Martinez, Jeanmar Gomez, Fausto Carmona, Hector Rondon and others) going cheap in this market.
3. Like me, John Mirabelli thinks this market is overpriced.
Still, you have to pay if you want to compete. Here is a list of the international free agent signings this season (the signing period started July 2nd). The first 33 players on this list come from Baseball America's list of players predicted to get the top bonuses in this period. The rest are significant signings with some of the bonuses estimated based on media reports:
1. Esteilon Peguero, SS, Dominican Republic – SEA $2.8 million
2. Luis Heredia, RHP, Mexico – PIT $2.6 million
3. Adonis Cardona, RHP, Venezuala – TOR - $2.8 million
4. Renato Nunez, 3B, Venezuela – OAK $2.2 million
5. Eskarlin Vazquez, RF, Dominican Republic – DET (Danry?) - $1 million
6. Phillips Castillo, OF, Dominican Republic – SEA $2.2 million
7. Vicmal de la Cruz, CF, Dominican Republic – OAK
8. Rougned Odor, SS, Venezuela – Texas - $425,000
9. Wilmer Romero, CF, Dominican Republic – NYY
10. Ariel Ovando, OF, Dominican Republic – HOU $2.8 million
11. Humberto Arteaga, SS, Venezuela – KC $1.1 million
12. Jose Torres, RHP, Colombia – SEA - $851,000
13. Yorman Garcia, CF, Venezuela – ARI - $300,000
14. Gabriel Cenas, 3B, Venezuela – TOR - $700,000
15. Elvis Sanchez, 3B, Dominican Republic – NYM
16. Angel Mejias, LHP Venezuela – UNSIGNED
17. Yoel Araujo, CF, Dominican Republic – TOR $800,000
18. Jordi Calderon, 3B, Venezuela – SEA
19. Edwin Moreno, OF, Dominican Republic – SD - $500,000
20. Argy Raga, C, Venezuela – OAK
21. Alberto Triunfel, SS, Dominican Republic – Texas $300,000
22. Jose Tovar, LHP, Venezuela, COL - $350,000
23. Pedro Perez, 3B, Colombia – UNSIGNED
24. Yorman Landa, RHP, Venezuela – UNSIGNED
25. Vicente Lupo, OF, Venezuela – NYM $400,000
26. Antonio Gonzalez, SS, Dominican Republic – UNSIGNED
27. Geronimo Franzua, LHP, Dominican Republic – HOU $250,000
28. Ronny Mejias, SS, Venezuela – ARI - $300,000
29. Christopher Tamarez, SS, Dominican Republic – NYY - $650,000
30. Luis Abad, RHP, Dominican Republic – UNSIGNED
31. Felix Jorge, RHP, Dominican Republic – UNSIGNED
32. Javier Pimentel, SS, Dominican Republic – MIN $575,000
33. Anderson Gonzalez, SS, Venezuela – PHI
Other singificant signings:
Hector Veloz 3B BAL $300,000
Maricino Cabrera, RHP, ATL $300,000
Francisco Silva SS PHI $200,000
Reyson Zoquier, LHP, MIN $200,000
Carlos Matias, RHP STL $1.5 million
Jose Rafel DePaula RHP NYY
Milton Gomez RHP, MIL $350,000
Olivet Florentino SS, CIN $250,000
So, it looks like close to 20 teams spent significant money in Latin America this year. Seattle, Toronto, Oakland and the Yankees appeared to be the big winners followed by Houston, Arizona and the Mets.
Note also that KC and Pittsburgh spent big on the one significant guy they signed as did Detroit and St. Louis. Minnesota spent big on their one guy last year and even went for a lesser but relatively expensive guy this year.
So, what's my point? Although it is expensive, the Indians just can't ignore these top prospects due to cost. I think, like KC and Pittsburgh did this year and Mnnesota did last year, they should make one top talent ($1 million plus) signing every year for Latin America. I think this should be a different budget than the draft budget so that 2010's draft strategy can continue. I am not not saying spending like drunken sailors which is what Toronto, Seattle and Oakland did, but note that Minnesota's #3 prospect this year is Miguel Sano, the SS they signed for over $2 million last year. You spend, you get quality. You don't, you hope you find a diamond in the rough. The latter is really a tough way to go, although the Indians have been pretty proficient at it. I just think it is time to augment that strategy and maybe do away with their Dominican team or, more likely, split one with another cost-conscious organization. That is, stop signing quantity, start signing quality and integrate those guys into the US faster. Although this might create a little culture shock these guys are on the same Rule 5 signing clock as US high schoolers so its not like we have forever.
The Indians should NOT be big spenders in Latin America but they should spend big on ONE guy each year. Considering we spent $1 million each on Sean Smith and Nick Pesco a few years back, I think $1.5-2 million once a year in Latin America is warranted.
BTW, if you can get any of the remaining unsigned guys (see guys in red above) by signing them in the $200,000 range, I would do it in a heartbeat. Odor and Mejias I would obviously pay more for but I think we need to get someone from this class or it helps to create a hole in our organization at the lower levels.
At some point I will do a deeper dive into the ROI for these Latin signees over the last 5 years but I don't have the time now.
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Tradition just took a hit
Bob Feller was Mr. Cleveland Indian to a lot of fans. Maybe not with the real life-video game, internet in your cell phone gang but, for most of us lifelong Indians fans he was. Living in St. Louis as I do and going to Cardinals games and walking the bronzed, HOF, statue row outside of Busch Stadium, it has been apparent to me that these statues and the tradition they represent transcends the number of store-bought world championships (see 1997 Marlins) a team can manufacture.
Tradition is, in my opinion based on my experience in St. Louis and other towns, what establishes your fan base. What fills the remaining empty seats are fair-weather fans but that tradition fills enough to pay the bills, in my opinion. The fact that a 90+ man that very few of us ever saw pitch could even be considered the far and away leader in the Mr. All-Time Indian race is a testament to tradition and the power of just a little of that. Which Cleveland player in the years before Mr. Feller's passing or who passes in the next 10 years, for that matter, is even mourned will tell you that.
So, as we mourn Bob Feller and his passing, remember that statue out in LF that some of you pass on the way in. Imagine a row of statues like that where people can take their kids, grandkids or great-grandkids and say "I saw him pitch" or "I saw his 3000th hit", and fill their heads with stories of the exploits of these great players. That's what builds tradition.
This is not a plug for bringing back Jim Thome or Manny Ramirez. Travis Hafner's contract took care of that ever happening. Nor is it a plug for bringing back Omar Vizquel, although I have favored, at one time or another, bringing back each of them for tradition sake. I contend, however, that not making them a part of the past AND present of the Cleveland Indians makes it more likely that they will only ever be part of Indians lore, NOT Indians' tradition, even if they go into the HOF wearning Chief Wahoo on their bronzed bust in Cooperstown.
What I am pointing out here is merely an affirmation of the importance of Bob Feller on all Indians' fans and a request, in the future, when we have to choose between tradition and winning or cutting budget or even egos, we and the Indians' braintrust remember that statue of Bob Feller outside of Progressive Field and his continued, until his death, support of the Cleveland Indians...and that those in charge consider tradition more strongly in future negotiations.
Tradition is, in my opinion based on my experience in St. Louis and other towns, what establishes your fan base. What fills the remaining empty seats are fair-weather fans but that tradition fills enough to pay the bills, in my opinion. The fact that a 90+ man that very few of us ever saw pitch could even be considered the far and away leader in the Mr. All-Time Indian race is a testament to tradition and the power of just a little of that. Which Cleveland player in the years before Mr. Feller's passing or who passes in the next 10 years, for that matter, is even mourned will tell you that.
So, as we mourn Bob Feller and his passing, remember that statue out in LF that some of you pass on the way in. Imagine a row of statues like that where people can take their kids, grandkids or great-grandkids and say "I saw him pitch" or "I saw his 3000th hit", and fill their heads with stories of the exploits of these great players. That's what builds tradition.
This is not a plug for bringing back Jim Thome or Manny Ramirez. Travis Hafner's contract took care of that ever happening. Nor is it a plug for bringing back Omar Vizquel, although I have favored, at one time or another, bringing back each of them for tradition sake. I contend, however, that not making them a part of the past AND present of the Cleveland Indians makes it more likely that they will only ever be part of Indians lore, NOT Indians' tradition, even if they go into the HOF wearning Chief Wahoo on their bronzed bust in Cooperstown.
What I am pointing out here is merely an affirmation of the importance of Bob Feller on all Indians' fans and a request, in the future, when we have to choose between tradition and winning or cutting budget or even egos, we and the Indians' braintrust remember that statue of Bob Feller outside of Progressive Field and his continued, until his death, support of the Cleveland Indians...and that those in charge consider tradition more strongly in future negotiations.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Random thoughts 12/15
Every month or so I will do a sort blog on miscellaneous things that have happened or that might happen:
1. Any free agent signing or trade that we make to bolster our 2011 roster should have an eye on bringing in players who are solid Elias Ranking "B" players who will be eligible for compensation in the 2012 draft if they have a good or even career-average year. Even if we will questionably offer these guys arbitration next winter, we could also get prospects for them in mid-season trades. A great way to use filler for open roster spots in 2011 is to look to the future and turn them into draft picks or prospects in trade. A terrible way to use these roster spots is to fill them with AAAA guys, especially if those AAAA guys are blocking prospects. Thus, I would be OK with Nick Punto at third if he was a solid Type B with some upside as a Type A...but he isn't. To reiterate: if you sign FAs or trade for veterans to fill gaps this year, make sure you can get compensation for them next winter. Wonder how the Red Sox get so many high draft picks? There you have it.
If you can't find those types of free agents or veterans attainable in cheap trades just to take on salary, then I would go with young guys. Otherwise, we become the KC Royals.
2. I am thinking that Cliff Lee is a very smart guy. He is confident enough in his ability to know that it is about stats building for his next contract AND competitiveness. The NL and the Phillies offer him the opportunity to do both. I still laugh at the people who tried to rationalize the poor return we got for him by comparing it to the return the Phillies got for him. Any rational person then saw what was going on: The Phillies were trying to dump salary quickly and Lee was the easiest "dump" who would bring any return at all. Unlike some GMs, the Phillies GM obviously didn't want to non-tender guys or give guys away for nothing just to dump salary. He wanted some quality back, even if it was below market value. So Lee's trade from Philly to Seattle was not surprising and, considering he gave up very little to the Indians to get Lee, trading him for a little less to Seattle just to dump salary to pay Halladay makes all the sense in the world. Unfortunately, the perennial FO supporting bloggers who cover the Indians needed to rationalize the poor trade the Indians made with the Phillies by dissing Lee's worth. His FA deal with the Phillies and the Phillies' subsequent reluctance just to give Blanton and Ibanez away for nothing to save money reiterates all the points that negate those FO supporter arguments.
3. The giveaway of Josh Rodriguez makes me loathe the approach of spring training. Nothing to look forward to with the Indians and the chance of Rodriguez making the Pirates and succeeding and us paying Punto a lot of money or a minor league FA a lot to fill Rodriguez's spot in AAA or as a utility guy with the Indians really would bite. We all realize that an experienced AAAA minor league FA SS is going to make up to $150,000 more than Rodriguez would have made to occupy a AAA roster spot, don't we? I could turn that money into a Dischler, Goodnight or Holt signing in 2011, if money is that tight. We get some of that back from the Rule 5 fee but we lose a talent to boot in potentially losing money. How does that make sense?
4. Does it bother anyone that Michael Brantley, Jordan Henry, Ezequiel Carrera, Trevor Crowe and Tyler Holt hit less than 10 HRs combined last year? Part of the reason for Constanza to leave is that he saw multiple players like himself ahead of him on the depth chart. Signing with ANY other club would have been good for him but Atlanta especially has found a way to get value out of guys like Constanza. While I like speed, basically having Michael Brantley on your AL team means that all the other speed guys are irrelevant. An AL team who is decent defensively in the OF (Choo and Sizemore are good, at least, if healthy) can only really afford one singless hitter among their 4-5 outfielders. Brantley is that guy. Keeping him AND Crowe makes this team weaker. Ditto for Henry, Cerrera and Holt down the road. They are needless. Good drafting and trading by the Indians to get these guys who are all MLers or potential MLers but we need to start trading this speed for young power or ptiching or the above-mentioned salary dump 2011 Type B/A free agents.
Remember the mantra: trade your minor league strengths for your minor league weaknesses. Build organizational balance and balance to your feeder system to the ML in this way and augment with July deals and good drafting....but keep the balance by continually trading your excess.
5. As someone who has proposed for years to exploit the fear that pervades draft day team conference rooms (i.e., fear of serious injuries, fear of bad attitudes, fear of hangnails that pop up right before the draft, fear of higher than slot bonus demands, etc.) , I will be interested to see if the Indians' 2010 approach is successful. The best thing any of us can hope for is that all of these signings who fell due to bonus demands or other reasons (Wolters, Washington, Holt, Dischler, Goodnight, etc.) hit the ground running this spring and if they are augmented by Aviles' performance when he recovers from TJ surgery, although that won't impact the 2011 draft. If that happens the Indians will be more inclined to draft the same way in 2011 and beyond. History tells me that if these guys fall flat on their faces management will declare the 2010 draft experiment a failure and go cheap or go high end at #1 and cheap the rest of the way. Hope that this doesn't happen because the methodology in 2010 was sound for a small market club as I have shown time and again over the years. It's also interesting how some bloggers and fans are now saying "Yeah, I was saying to draft this way, too"....all evidence to the contrary. Well, what can you do?
1. Any free agent signing or trade that we make to bolster our 2011 roster should have an eye on bringing in players who are solid Elias Ranking "B" players who will be eligible for compensation in the 2012 draft if they have a good or even career-average year. Even if we will questionably offer these guys arbitration next winter, we could also get prospects for them in mid-season trades. A great way to use filler for open roster spots in 2011 is to look to the future and turn them into draft picks or prospects in trade. A terrible way to use these roster spots is to fill them with AAAA guys, especially if those AAAA guys are blocking prospects. Thus, I would be OK with Nick Punto at third if he was a solid Type B with some upside as a Type A...but he isn't. To reiterate: if you sign FAs or trade for veterans to fill gaps this year, make sure you can get compensation for them next winter. Wonder how the Red Sox get so many high draft picks? There you have it.
If you can't find those types of free agents or veterans attainable in cheap trades just to take on salary, then I would go with young guys. Otherwise, we become the KC Royals.
2. I am thinking that Cliff Lee is a very smart guy. He is confident enough in his ability to know that it is about stats building for his next contract AND competitiveness. The NL and the Phillies offer him the opportunity to do both. I still laugh at the people who tried to rationalize the poor return we got for him by comparing it to the return the Phillies got for him. Any rational person then saw what was going on: The Phillies were trying to dump salary quickly and Lee was the easiest "dump" who would bring any return at all. Unlike some GMs, the Phillies GM obviously didn't want to non-tender guys or give guys away for nothing just to dump salary. He wanted some quality back, even if it was below market value. So Lee's trade from Philly to Seattle was not surprising and, considering he gave up very little to the Indians to get Lee, trading him for a little less to Seattle just to dump salary to pay Halladay makes all the sense in the world. Unfortunately, the perennial FO supporting bloggers who cover the Indians needed to rationalize the poor trade the Indians made with the Phillies by dissing Lee's worth. His FA deal with the Phillies and the Phillies' subsequent reluctance just to give Blanton and Ibanez away for nothing to save money reiterates all the points that negate those FO supporter arguments.
3. The giveaway of Josh Rodriguez makes me loathe the approach of spring training. Nothing to look forward to with the Indians and the chance of Rodriguez making the Pirates and succeeding and us paying Punto a lot of money or a minor league FA a lot to fill Rodriguez's spot in AAA or as a utility guy with the Indians really would bite. We all realize that an experienced AAAA minor league FA SS is going to make up to $150,000 more than Rodriguez would have made to occupy a AAA roster spot, don't we? I could turn that money into a Dischler, Goodnight or Holt signing in 2011, if money is that tight. We get some of that back from the Rule 5 fee but we lose a talent to boot in potentially losing money. How does that make sense?
4. Does it bother anyone that Michael Brantley, Jordan Henry, Ezequiel Carrera, Trevor Crowe and Tyler Holt hit less than 10 HRs combined last year? Part of the reason for Constanza to leave is that he saw multiple players like himself ahead of him on the depth chart. Signing with ANY other club would have been good for him but Atlanta especially has found a way to get value out of guys like Constanza. While I like speed, basically having Michael Brantley on your AL team means that all the other speed guys are irrelevant. An AL team who is decent defensively in the OF (Choo and Sizemore are good, at least, if healthy) can only really afford one singless hitter among their 4-5 outfielders. Brantley is that guy. Keeping him AND Crowe makes this team weaker. Ditto for Henry, Cerrera and Holt down the road. They are needless. Good drafting and trading by the Indians to get these guys who are all MLers or potential MLers but we need to start trading this speed for young power or ptiching or the above-mentioned salary dump 2011 Type B/A free agents.
Remember the mantra: trade your minor league strengths for your minor league weaknesses. Build organizational balance and balance to your feeder system to the ML in this way and augment with July deals and good drafting....but keep the balance by continually trading your excess.
5. As someone who has proposed for years to exploit the fear that pervades draft day team conference rooms (i.e., fear of serious injuries, fear of bad attitudes, fear of hangnails that pop up right before the draft, fear of higher than slot bonus demands, etc.) , I will be interested to see if the Indians' 2010 approach is successful. The best thing any of us can hope for is that all of these signings who fell due to bonus demands or other reasons (Wolters, Washington, Holt, Dischler, Goodnight, etc.) hit the ground running this spring and if they are augmented by Aviles' performance when he recovers from TJ surgery, although that won't impact the 2011 draft. If that happens the Indians will be more inclined to draft the same way in 2011 and beyond. History tells me that if these guys fall flat on their faces management will declare the 2010 draft experiment a failure and go cheap or go high end at #1 and cheap the rest of the way. Hope that this doesn't happen because the methodology in 2010 was sound for a small market club as I have shown time and again over the years. It's also interesting how some bloggers and fans are now saying "Yeah, I was saying to draft this way, too"....all evidence to the contrary. Well, what can you do?
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Rule 5 Results
Well, as predicted in the previous piece (see below), Josh Rodriguez was the most likely Indian to be selected and he was selected FIRST OVERALL by the Pirates. While this doesn't have much, if any weight, as the guy who knew him best, Neal Huntington of the Pirates, had that first pick, it does go to point out that Huntington thought Rodriguez had the most upside of any guy who might stick with a team next year. Hey, it's not like the Pirates are so deep that they were drafting for need!
Teams that finish with almost 100 losses should not be losing people in the ML portion of the Rule 5 draft, especially with AAAA guys like Shelly Duncan, Jayson Nix and Justin Germano on their roster. While Rodriguez may be underappreciated at this point, he is a middle infielder who can field and has some thunder in his bat. He can clearly stick with a team this year and, although he may profile as no more than a quality utililty infielder (both offensively and defensively) he still could be more and probably will not be less.
When you have AAAA guys on your roster at his position year after year, it does tend to upset this Cleveland fan that the Indians would not protect the single most obvious Rule 5 target in their farm system instead of one of the three guys mentioned above.
Given that the Indians also lost SS Rivero to the Phillies on waivers, the loss of Rodriguez means another parade of AAAA middle infielders into Columbus with some of them more than likely getting ABs in Cleveland. That really sucks if you are the fan of...what did Scott Boras call it...A DEVELOPMENTAL TEAM. Yeah, developmental teams should really be losing guys like Rodriguez and Rivero. Not that Rivero, on paper, is a big loss, as I think Rodriguez has a chance to be pretty good.
The Indians lost no one in the AAA and AA portions meaning that they didn't do anything stupid in setting up their AAA or AA reserve lists. To me that means that John Drennen, among others, were protected at the AAA level.
Funniest comment of the day: Bloggers congratulating the Indians for not losing anyone in the MINOR LEAGUE portions of the draft due to good management of their reserve lists without calling them on the carpet for losing Rodriguez.
Another stupid result for the Indians. Not the biggest loss in the world but let's all remember this if Rodriguez sticks in Pittsburgh while we see the next parade of Anderson Hernandez types parade through Cleveland next year.
Teams that finish with almost 100 losses should not be losing people in the ML portion of the Rule 5 draft, especially with AAAA guys like Shelly Duncan, Jayson Nix and Justin Germano on their roster. While Rodriguez may be underappreciated at this point, he is a middle infielder who can field and has some thunder in his bat. He can clearly stick with a team this year and, although he may profile as no more than a quality utililty infielder (both offensively and defensively) he still could be more and probably will not be less.
When you have AAAA guys on your roster at his position year after year, it does tend to upset this Cleveland fan that the Indians would not protect the single most obvious Rule 5 target in their farm system instead of one of the three guys mentioned above.
Given that the Indians also lost SS Rivero to the Phillies on waivers, the loss of Rodriguez means another parade of AAAA middle infielders into Columbus with some of them more than likely getting ABs in Cleveland. That really sucks if you are the fan of...what did Scott Boras call it...A DEVELOPMENTAL TEAM. Yeah, developmental teams should really be losing guys like Rodriguez and Rivero. Not that Rivero, on paper, is a big loss, as I think Rodriguez has a chance to be pretty good.
The Indians lost no one in the AAA and AA portions meaning that they didn't do anything stupid in setting up their AAA or AA reserve lists. To me that means that John Drennen, among others, were protected at the AAA level.
Funniest comment of the day: Bloggers congratulating the Indians for not losing anyone in the MINOR LEAGUE portions of the draft due to good management of their reserve lists without calling them on the carpet for losing Rodriguez.
Another stupid result for the Indians. Not the biggest loss in the world but let's all remember this if Rodriguez sticks in Pittsburgh while we see the next parade of Anderson Hernandez types parade through Cleveland next year.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Rule 5 Thoughts - 2010
Tomorrow is the Rule 5 draft.
If you don't know anything about it know this: It is totally unpredictable and after guys who no one predicted get picked, no one is ever able to figure out who will actually stick the next spring.
That being said, here is who the Indians are most likely to lose in the major league phase, with percentages:
Josh Rodriguez: 75% likelihood of being selected. He's a utility infielder who has some pop and and some upside.
Adam Miller - 50% likelihood: Yeah, he may not be healthy but it will only cost $25,000 for a team to find out if they have to return him to the Indians.
Paolo Espino - 25% likelihood: Teams may want to look at him as a reliever with starter upside, similar to what Hector Ambriz did last year for the Indians.
Matt McBride - 25% likelihood: Some uninformed team might take him with the idea they can convert him back to catcher or as a utility guy who can catch part of the time. For $25,000 it might be worth the gamble. Otherwise, he doesn't fit the mold of Rule 5 guys.
Connor Graham - 10% likelihood: Some team might take his arm but, after this year, I doubt it. He is all over the place with his command.
Minor League Phase - We don't often talk about this phase but guys do get selected.
John Drennen - This could be the surprise for the Indians this year. I don't think they will protect him on the AAA roster and I think he will be snagged by some team.
Juan Aponte
Beau Mills - Given his dismal performance, the Indians may expose him to the minor league phase, but I doubt it as it would put too much egg on their face for picking him in the first round of a relatively recent draft. Still, you never know. If he is on the AAA roster, no way this guy gets picked in the major league portion (yuck, yuck, now he is almost guaranteed to be picked in that phase!)
Carlton Smith - Don't be surprised if the Indians expose him to the minor league phase. I don't think they have much faith in his ability.
Travis Turek - I could see a team snagging him and I could see the Indians not even protecting him on the AAA roster.
So, there it is in writing. We will see what happens tomorrow.
If you don't know anything about it know this: It is totally unpredictable and after guys who no one predicted get picked, no one is ever able to figure out who will actually stick the next spring.
That being said, here is who the Indians are most likely to lose in the major league phase, with percentages:
Josh Rodriguez: 75% likelihood of being selected. He's a utility infielder who has some pop and and some upside.
Adam Miller - 50% likelihood: Yeah, he may not be healthy but it will only cost $25,000 for a team to find out if they have to return him to the Indians.
Paolo Espino - 25% likelihood: Teams may want to look at him as a reliever with starter upside, similar to what Hector Ambriz did last year for the Indians.
Matt McBride - 25% likelihood: Some uninformed team might take him with the idea they can convert him back to catcher or as a utility guy who can catch part of the time. For $25,000 it might be worth the gamble. Otherwise, he doesn't fit the mold of Rule 5 guys.
Connor Graham - 10% likelihood: Some team might take his arm but, after this year, I doubt it. He is all over the place with his command.
Minor League Phase - We don't often talk about this phase but guys do get selected.
John Drennen - This could be the surprise for the Indians this year. I don't think they will protect him on the AAA roster and I think he will be snagged by some team.
Juan Aponte
Beau Mills - Given his dismal performance, the Indians may expose him to the minor league phase, but I doubt it as it would put too much egg on their face for picking him in the first round of a relatively recent draft. Still, you never know. If he is on the AAA roster, no way this guy gets picked in the major league portion (yuck, yuck, now he is almost guaranteed to be picked in that phase!)
Carlton Smith - Don't be surprised if the Indians expose him to the minor league phase. I don't think they have much faith in his ability.
Travis Turek - I could see a team snagging him and I could see the Indians not even protecting him on the AAA roster.
So, there it is in writing. We will see what happens tomorrow.
Friday, November 26, 2010
Where Do We Go From Here - Overall and Position by Postion for 2011
It's time to look ahead. Right now this franchise may be in more trouble than we ever have been!
Clearly, the entire 2011 season rests on two knees, one belonging to Grady Sizemore and one belonging to Carlos Santana. Without the two of them healthy we have no chance of winning and, with Sizemore, he has to come back even if the other 23 pieces to the roster puzzle don't come into alignment, just so that we can get maximum trade value out of him if we can't re-sign him to a reasonable multiyear deal.
Let's assume, however, that these guys come back strong just so that we can continue this discussion. So how does the rest of the 25 man roster look for next year. First up is starting pitching:
Starting pitching
Here we go 9 deep going into spring training (much deeper by mid-season) and, given how injuries go, we will need it:
Fausto Carmona: Is Fausto really growing as a player? This year will tell. My hope is that he is and, with his stuff, he should be able to dominate. He needs to be a weak (top 15-30 starting pitcher in the AL) #1 starter for us to have a chance.
Carlos Carrasco: To me it is puzzling that people upside him as a #4-5. I think his upside is as a #2-3 and he needs to at least be a #3 this year for us to be successful. DEFINITELY he has to reach that or a middling #2 for us to be competitive in future years.
Justin Masterson: Here, in my opinion, is the biggest lock of all of our starters. Justin is really fortunate that he was traded here. Cleveland is one of the few places where he could be on a team that has a true chance to be competitive in a couple of years AND that he gets the time to work through the transition back to being a starter. I think he will shine by the end of the first 3 months of the ML season in 2011, which he needs to do not to be sent back to the bullpen. The latter would be a mistake as we have plenty of Justin Masterson types in our system. Maybe not quite as good but, IMHO, major league quality set up men nevertheless.
Mitch Talbot: Here is the guy I think will disappear relatively quickly. I think his stuff doesn't play up at all and, in trying to make it play up as big as it needs to even to be a weak #4 or a strong #5, he will end up hurting himself. I think that people need to NOT count on him for anything in 2011 or beyond.
David Huff: I still believe in him. I think we need for him to come through to help balance the rightsidedness of this rotation. He was a mess in 2010. I don't know why as I am not an expert in pitching mechanics. The stuff appears to still be there but the command has gone away. I will write it off to the sophomore jinx andpredict, if healthy, he will be better than his rookie season and be a solid #3 or good #4 starter here.
Other options/long relievers/AAA depth:
Aaron Laffey: I think to count on him for 160 innings is crazy. He should be a long reliever/spot starter who can give you some starts in the middle of the season once his stamina is built up...and THAT is if he is even healthy, which, after the end of last year, is questionable.
Josh Tomlin: The righthanded Laffey but with more durability, he is a poor team's #5 starter, a guy who can give you some innings and an occasional good start, but not much more. As a swingman in the bullpen (long/middle relief) he could be much more valuable.
Jeanmar Gomez: Another guy who can give you innings but not much more at this point, he needs more seasoning but may end up in the rotation by default. If we can't muster a competitive team this year, there are worse things than giving Jeanmar on-the-job-training.
Zach McAllister: Another guy like Gomez and Tomlin - someone who is durable but doesn't have stuff that screams #3-4 ML starter, the only difference with him and Tomlin/Laffey is I don't see McAllister in any relief role. He is ML depth and a probable anchor of the AAA roster for at least half a season, much like Carrasco last year.
Also in consideration at some time during 2011:
Paolo Espino: Assuming he survives the Rule 5 draft (not a sure thing) he provides quality depth and, given how the rest of the rotation looks, if he remains healthy and performs at any reasonable level, he will make his ML debut in 2011. I would start him off in the bullpen if I am the Indians as his relatively diminutive size plays up more as a reliever (see David Riske).
Yohan Pino: If he re-signs with us, just based on persistence and being in the right place at the right time, he could be one of I am sure dozens of AAAA guys who could get a chance for a ML cup of coffee or a little more if injuries strike in 2011. He is good ML depth at AAA but not a long-term answer to anything except "Who did we get when we traded Carl Pavano?".
Corey Kluber: I vote him most likely to crash and burn in 2011. His numbers after the trade to Cleveland were beyond pathetic (WHIP of 1.82 in Aktron, 1.45 in Columbus). He, to me, rates lower in potential than any of the above EXCEPT for Pino, and that is not a good thing. Nevertheless, the FO likes him and if he is breathing and putting up Jeanmar Gomez 2010 AAA numbers (5.00 ERA with flashes of brilliance), he could get a shot at any point in the second half of 2011 if we are non-competitive.
Scott Barnes: Given that he is left-handed, breathing and in a system devoid of much left-handed starting pitching AND with his AFL numbers this fall, he is a mid-season option, as well.
Alex White: A mid-season possibility but I hope not. Unless we are in competition and need his arm and there are no other options available, why rush him, start his arbitration clock, etc.
Drew Pomeranz: Yeah, he may go all Mike Leake on us and be in the majors with little or no minor league experience but, with his past command issues, I think we give him time in the minors and don't turn him into the next Jeremy Guthrie, who was on the 40-man roster about two years too early...something I said at the time about his ML deal. Looks good on paper to get an experienced college pitcher into the majors but, more often than not (see Steve Dunning for a blast from the past example) it doesn't work out.
Hector Rondon, Jeremy Sowers, .Kelvin de la Cruz , Matt Packer, Joe Gardner: None of these guys, due to inexperience, injury or poor ability to perform, look like they will make it to Cleveland in 2011. However, if all the stars align for them, any of these guys could get ML time this coming year in Cleveland.
The Bullpen
I'll start off by saying that the bullpen is the most difficult area for ANY team to predict, especially teams with young closers. Relievers tend to go in cycles but, for the most part, quality, young relievers who the league has not yet gotten a book on tend to be pretty effective. That being said, the Indians have a chance to have a good bullpen this year, a really good bullpen. Let's talk about how this may shape up:
Closer - Chris Perez
Setup men - Tony Sipp, Rafael Perez
6th/7th inning guys - three of Frank Herrmann, Jensen Lewis, Josh Judy, Joe Smith, Justin Germano, Vinnie Pestano
Long man/spot starter - Josh Tomlin or Aaron Laffey
AAA Depth: Jess Todd, Zach Putnam, Paulo Espino, Bryce Stowell, Alex White and two of the 6th/7th inning guys who don't make it and maybe one of the long men.
Lower level depth: Eric Berger, Connor Graham, Chen Lee, Bryan Price, Rob Bryson, Jason Knapp
This group of 20 guys provides excellent depth for a 7 man bullpen. Given that all of the lower level depth guys have very little, if any, AAA experience, the 14 guys ahead of them provide these guys time to develop in AA and AAA in anticipation of maybe being needed by mid-season.
Even though I favor dumping Joe Smith and Germano in the right deal, keeping them makes sense as it cushions the intro to ML baseball for the younger guys.
Yes, this bullpen will be young but, historically, the element of surprise (from the league never seeing a young pitcher) in the bullpen has been very effective. Let's hope it is for us, as well.
Catching
This is the most solidified position for 2011. If Carlos Santana is healthy, he starts. If Lou Marson is healthy, he backs up. If one of those guys is injured, Luke Carlin will back up whoever starts. If two of those guys can't go we're in deep do-do. There are absolutely no catching prospects in the entire organization higher than Kinston and the ones at Kinston and lower are really, really questionable. They could use one of their AAAA catchers in a pinch or maybe use Matt McBride, who came up as a catcher, in a pinch. But losing Chirs Gimenez and, I think, Wyatt Toregas, really hurts as they lost ML catching depth.
So, look for the Indians to sign a minor league catcher although that would be a difficult sell to someone as they might only be the backup or split time at AAA due to Carlin's presence. Greg Zaun (how old is he?) and Ronny Paulino (suspended for 50 games in August due to PED use) make some sense but, as MLers with lots of experience, might be tough signs and will come in very expensive compared to a typical minor leaguer. Still, Chris Antonetti and Mark Shapiro have to feel very uncomfortable right now with their ML depth in catching. Heck, Roberto Perez is next in line, in my opinion, right now after Carlin and he played at low A Lake County last year.
Infield
Here is where it gets interesting. We either have too many guys or zero guys at every position but SS, and there we are already set.
Third base: At this position we look like a typical rebuilding team. We have AAAA guys (Nix, Joel Hanrahan) and inexperienced guys (Jason Donald, Cord Phelps and Jason Kipnis) and not- or quesitionably-ready minor leaguers (Lonnie Chisenhall, Jared Goedert). This one position will be, IMHO, the most boring for the Indians this year...and the most pathetic, assuming Carlos Santana is completely healthy by the start of the season. That the Indians are even talking to Nick Punto because they might have to move Donald or Nix to 3B shows you the pathetic state of this position. Our big hope is that Goedert can hold the fort until and IF Chisenhall gets here. Unless he is a total hack I would give Goedert the job with Nix as the fallback option. That's what a rebuilding team would do as Nix is the classic AAAA player who flashes just enough that he will sucker team after team into giving him another opportunity only to find, every time, that he is a AAAA guy who gets hot once in a while and flashes above average power for a middle infielder, but not much else in the five common tools.
Shortstop: Interestingly, a year ago we all thought we were set for several years. However, from what I have read, the Indians appear to not be sold on ACab any more. That being said, Mr. Cabrera will be the starting SS and his backups will be Jason Donald, Punto if he signs (I hope not) and, if he somehow survives the Rule 5, Josh Rodriguez as ML depth in AAA. After that we are thin but, as you all know, ML depth in AAAA shortstops is available for pennies in the minor league free agent market. Look for the Indians to sign 1-2 of these guys as they tend to be OK, especially the Latin players, to play even as low as AA or high A as they wait their next ML injury-driven opportunity.
Second base: There are so many options here it is amazing. Jason Donald, Jayson Nix, Cord Phelps, Jason Kipnis and, of course, the scary Luis Valbuena. Out of this group will come our ML starter, a backup and 1-2 AAA depth guys, either of whom could step in by June 1st to be the full-time starter at 2B...possibly with one of the others being DFA'd or thrown to the curb emotionally, at that point.
First base: Again, an embarassment of riches. Matt LaPorta and Jordan Brown in the majors, Matt McBride and Jared Goedert in AAA. We are set here for the foreseeable future. Plus, there's always Travis Hafner in a pinch and Wes Hodges and Beau Mills as minor league depth.
Outfield
Assuming Grady Sizemore is healthy, we are set in the majors with 5 outfielders: Sizemore, Choo, Brantley, Shelley Duncan and Crowe. Jordan Brown will probably also get some time out there and, in the minors, we have Matt McBride. Jared Goedert will get time out there. McBride and Goedert are ML depth as is Nick Weglarz who, if he stays healthy, may be ready by July. Ezequiel Carrera provides depth in CF but no power at all (he is the ultimate slap hitter), even less than Brantley. The problem with this arrangement is that there is no depth in RF and an overabundance of LFers, including a number with no power at all. Most AL teams want power out of their LFers. Sizemore is the only true centerfielder although Brantley and even Crowe can play there, albeit much less effectively and with no power and Carrera is adequate minor league depth. All three of our current ML CF options have rag arms making our lack of RF depth particularly alarming if Choo would go down. Teams could then almost run on the the Indians' outfield at will. Given that if Santana catches our opponents will probably be able to steal bases at a more than average pace, this could add extra pressure to the pitching staff to be very effective or you could see a lot of "1" innings for opponents where they manufacture runs, nickeling and diming us into 4 to 5 runs a game even without the benefit of a big inning. .
Summary
The Indians are surprisingly set for spring training with adequate bodies at most positions. Their gaping hole is at 3B and I hope to heck they don't trade some excess talent OR overspend on a mediocre free agent just to do a temporary fill at that position until Chisenhall gets there. As always, I would like to trade that excess talent for another team's excess talent. Our long-term question marks are in RF and maybe starting pitching with an additional question mark at 3B if we assume that Chisenhall is not a sure thing. As always, we could use more starting pitching in the mid- to high-minors. We have depth at 1B, LF and in the bullpen that we could trade. If we trade, we should 'trade down' meaning we trade major league and AAA talent for a couple of stud AA guys who might be ready in a year or two.
Clearly, the entire 2011 season rests on two knees, one belonging to Grady Sizemore and one belonging to Carlos Santana. Without the two of them healthy we have no chance of winning and, with Sizemore, he has to come back even if the other 23 pieces to the roster puzzle don't come into alignment, just so that we can get maximum trade value out of him if we can't re-sign him to a reasonable multiyear deal.
Let's assume, however, that these guys come back strong just so that we can continue this discussion. So how does the rest of the 25 man roster look for next year. First up is starting pitching:
Starting pitching
Here we go 9 deep going into spring training (much deeper by mid-season) and, given how injuries go, we will need it:
Fausto Carmona: Is Fausto really growing as a player? This year will tell. My hope is that he is and, with his stuff, he should be able to dominate. He needs to be a weak (top 15-30 starting pitcher in the AL) #1 starter for us to have a chance.
Carlos Carrasco: To me it is puzzling that people upside him as a #4-5. I think his upside is as a #2-3 and he needs to at least be a #3 this year for us to be successful. DEFINITELY he has to reach that or a middling #2 for us to be competitive in future years.
Justin Masterson: Here, in my opinion, is the biggest lock of all of our starters. Justin is really fortunate that he was traded here. Cleveland is one of the few places where he could be on a team that has a true chance to be competitive in a couple of years AND that he gets the time to work through the transition back to being a starter. I think he will shine by the end of the first 3 months of the ML season in 2011, which he needs to do not to be sent back to the bullpen. The latter would be a mistake as we have plenty of Justin Masterson types in our system. Maybe not quite as good but, IMHO, major league quality set up men nevertheless.
Mitch Talbot: Here is the guy I think will disappear relatively quickly. I think his stuff doesn't play up at all and, in trying to make it play up as big as it needs to even to be a weak #4 or a strong #5, he will end up hurting himself. I think that people need to NOT count on him for anything in 2011 or beyond.
David Huff: I still believe in him. I think we need for him to come through to help balance the rightsidedness of this rotation. He was a mess in 2010. I don't know why as I am not an expert in pitching mechanics. The stuff appears to still be there but the command has gone away. I will write it off to the sophomore jinx andpredict, if healthy, he will be better than his rookie season and be a solid #3 or good #4 starter here.
Other options/long relievers/AAA depth:
Aaron Laffey: I think to count on him for 160 innings is crazy. He should be a long reliever/spot starter who can give you some starts in the middle of the season once his stamina is built up...and THAT is if he is even healthy, which, after the end of last year, is questionable.
Josh Tomlin: The righthanded Laffey but with more durability, he is a poor team's #5 starter, a guy who can give you some innings and an occasional good start, but not much more. As a swingman in the bullpen (long/middle relief) he could be much more valuable.
Jeanmar Gomez: Another guy who can give you innings but not much more at this point, he needs more seasoning but may end up in the rotation by default. If we can't muster a competitive team this year, there are worse things than giving Jeanmar on-the-job-training.
Zach McAllister: Another guy like Gomez and Tomlin - someone who is durable but doesn't have stuff that screams #3-4 ML starter, the only difference with him and Tomlin/Laffey is I don't see McAllister in any relief role. He is ML depth and a probable anchor of the AAA roster for at least half a season, much like Carrasco last year.
Also in consideration at some time during 2011:
Paolo Espino: Assuming he survives the Rule 5 draft (not a sure thing) he provides quality depth and, given how the rest of the rotation looks, if he remains healthy and performs at any reasonable level, he will make his ML debut in 2011. I would start him off in the bullpen if I am the Indians as his relatively diminutive size plays up more as a reliever (see David Riske).
Yohan Pino: If he re-signs with us, just based on persistence and being in the right place at the right time, he could be one of I am sure dozens of AAAA guys who could get a chance for a ML cup of coffee or a little more if injuries strike in 2011. He is good ML depth at AAA but not a long-term answer to anything except "Who did we get when we traded Carl Pavano?".
Corey Kluber: I vote him most likely to crash and burn in 2011. His numbers after the trade to Cleveland were beyond pathetic (WHIP of 1.82 in Aktron, 1.45 in Columbus). He, to me, rates lower in potential than any of the above EXCEPT for Pino, and that is not a good thing. Nevertheless, the FO likes him and if he is breathing and putting up Jeanmar Gomez 2010 AAA numbers (5.00 ERA with flashes of brilliance), he could get a shot at any point in the second half of 2011 if we are non-competitive.
Scott Barnes: Given that he is left-handed, breathing and in a system devoid of much left-handed starting pitching AND with his AFL numbers this fall, he is a mid-season option, as well.
Alex White: A mid-season possibility but I hope not. Unless we are in competition and need his arm and there are no other options available, why rush him, start his arbitration clock, etc.
Drew Pomeranz: Yeah, he may go all Mike Leake on us and be in the majors with little or no minor league experience but, with his past command issues, I think we give him time in the minors and don't turn him into the next Jeremy Guthrie, who was on the 40-man roster about two years too early...something I said at the time about his ML deal. Looks good on paper to get an experienced college pitcher into the majors but, more often than not (see Steve Dunning for a blast from the past example) it doesn't work out.
Hector Rondon, Jeremy Sowers, .Kelvin de la Cruz , Matt Packer, Joe Gardner: None of these guys, due to inexperience, injury or poor ability to perform, look like they will make it to Cleveland in 2011. However, if all the stars align for them, any of these guys could get ML time this coming year in Cleveland.
The Bullpen
I'll start off by saying that the bullpen is the most difficult area for ANY team to predict, especially teams with young closers. Relievers tend to go in cycles but, for the most part, quality, young relievers who the league has not yet gotten a book on tend to be pretty effective. That being said, the Indians have a chance to have a good bullpen this year, a really good bullpen. Let's talk about how this may shape up:
Closer - Chris Perez
Setup men - Tony Sipp, Rafael Perez
6th/7th inning guys - three of Frank Herrmann, Jensen Lewis, Josh Judy, Joe Smith, Justin Germano, Vinnie Pestano
Long man/spot starter - Josh Tomlin or Aaron Laffey
AAA Depth: Jess Todd, Zach Putnam, Paulo Espino, Bryce Stowell, Alex White and two of the 6th/7th inning guys who don't make it and maybe one of the long men.
Lower level depth: Eric Berger, Connor Graham, Chen Lee, Bryan Price, Rob Bryson, Jason Knapp
This group of 20 guys provides excellent depth for a 7 man bullpen. Given that all of the lower level depth guys have very little, if any, AAA experience, the 14 guys ahead of them provide these guys time to develop in AA and AAA in anticipation of maybe being needed by mid-season.
Even though I favor dumping Joe Smith and Germano in the right deal, keeping them makes sense as it cushions the intro to ML baseball for the younger guys.
Yes, this bullpen will be young but, historically, the element of surprise (from the league never seeing a young pitcher) in the bullpen has been very effective. Let's hope it is for us, as well.
Catching
This is the most solidified position for 2011. If Carlos Santana is healthy, he starts. If Lou Marson is healthy, he backs up. If one of those guys is injured, Luke Carlin will back up whoever starts. If two of those guys can't go we're in deep do-do. There are absolutely no catching prospects in the entire organization higher than Kinston and the ones at Kinston and lower are really, really questionable. They could use one of their AAAA catchers in a pinch or maybe use Matt McBride, who came up as a catcher, in a pinch. But losing Chirs Gimenez and, I think, Wyatt Toregas, really hurts as they lost ML catching depth.
So, look for the Indians to sign a minor league catcher although that would be a difficult sell to someone as they might only be the backup or split time at AAA due to Carlin's presence. Greg Zaun (how old is he?) and Ronny Paulino (suspended for 50 games in August due to PED use) make some sense but, as MLers with lots of experience, might be tough signs and will come in very expensive compared to a typical minor leaguer. Still, Chris Antonetti and Mark Shapiro have to feel very uncomfortable right now with their ML depth in catching. Heck, Roberto Perez is next in line, in my opinion, right now after Carlin and he played at low A Lake County last year.
Infield
Here is where it gets interesting. We either have too many guys or zero guys at every position but SS, and there we are already set.
Third base: At this position we look like a typical rebuilding team. We have AAAA guys (Nix, Joel Hanrahan) and inexperienced guys (Jason Donald, Cord Phelps and Jason Kipnis) and not- or quesitionably-ready minor leaguers (Lonnie Chisenhall, Jared Goedert). This one position will be, IMHO, the most boring for the Indians this year...and the most pathetic, assuming Carlos Santana is completely healthy by the start of the season. That the Indians are even talking to Nick Punto because they might have to move Donald or Nix to 3B shows you the pathetic state of this position. Our big hope is that Goedert can hold the fort until and IF Chisenhall gets here. Unless he is a total hack I would give Goedert the job with Nix as the fallback option. That's what a rebuilding team would do as Nix is the classic AAAA player who flashes just enough that he will sucker team after team into giving him another opportunity only to find, every time, that he is a AAAA guy who gets hot once in a while and flashes above average power for a middle infielder, but not much else in the five common tools.
Shortstop: Interestingly, a year ago we all thought we were set for several years. However, from what I have read, the Indians appear to not be sold on ACab any more. That being said, Mr. Cabrera will be the starting SS and his backups will be Jason Donald, Punto if he signs (I hope not) and, if he somehow survives the Rule 5, Josh Rodriguez as ML depth in AAA. After that we are thin but, as you all know, ML depth in AAAA shortstops is available for pennies in the minor league free agent market. Look for the Indians to sign 1-2 of these guys as they tend to be OK, especially the Latin players, to play even as low as AA or high A as they wait their next ML injury-driven opportunity.
Second base: There are so many options here it is amazing. Jason Donald, Jayson Nix, Cord Phelps, Jason Kipnis and, of course, the scary Luis Valbuena. Out of this group will come our ML starter, a backup and 1-2 AAA depth guys, either of whom could step in by June 1st to be the full-time starter at 2B...possibly with one of the others being DFA'd or thrown to the curb emotionally, at that point.
First base: Again, an embarassment of riches. Matt LaPorta and Jordan Brown in the majors, Matt McBride and Jared Goedert in AAA. We are set here for the foreseeable future. Plus, there's always Travis Hafner in a pinch and Wes Hodges and Beau Mills as minor league depth.
Outfield
Assuming Grady Sizemore is healthy, we are set in the majors with 5 outfielders: Sizemore, Choo, Brantley, Shelley Duncan and Crowe. Jordan Brown will probably also get some time out there and, in the minors, we have Matt McBride. Jared Goedert will get time out there. McBride and Goedert are ML depth as is Nick Weglarz who, if he stays healthy, may be ready by July. Ezequiel Carrera provides depth in CF but no power at all (he is the ultimate slap hitter), even less than Brantley. The problem with this arrangement is that there is no depth in RF and an overabundance of LFers, including a number with no power at all. Most AL teams want power out of their LFers. Sizemore is the only true centerfielder although Brantley and even Crowe can play there, albeit much less effectively and with no power and Carrera is adequate minor league depth. All three of our current ML CF options have rag arms making our lack of RF depth particularly alarming if Choo would go down. Teams could then almost run on the the Indians' outfield at will. Given that if Santana catches our opponents will probably be able to steal bases at a more than average pace, this could add extra pressure to the pitching staff to be very effective or you could see a lot of "1" innings for opponents where they manufacture runs, nickeling and diming us into 4 to 5 runs a game even without the benefit of a big inning. .
Summary
The Indians are surprisingly set for spring training with adequate bodies at most positions. Their gaping hole is at 3B and I hope to heck they don't trade some excess talent OR overspend on a mediocre free agent just to do a temporary fill at that position until Chisenhall gets there. As always, I would like to trade that excess talent for another team's excess talent. Our long-term question marks are in RF and maybe starting pitching with an additional question mark at 3B if we assume that Chisenhall is not a sure thing. As always, we could use more starting pitching in the mid- to high-minors. We have depth at 1B, LF and in the bullpen that we could trade. If we trade, we should 'trade down' meaning we trade major league and AAA talent for a couple of stud AA guys who might be ready in a year or two.
Friday, November 19, 2010
Wheeling and Dealing: Where are the Indians?
It is hard to believe, on consecutive days, the Marlins traded Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin and Dan Uggla...and all they got back were some relievers (one an Indians' giveaway, Edwin Mujica) and a utility infielder. Besides the fact that that they might have packaged these guys to get something better, what would it have taken for the Indians to get these three?
Jason Donald, Jensen Lewis (or maybe Joe Smith), Josh Judy and Rafael Perez might have done it. Would that have been too much or too little to pay for these three guys?
Well, the Indians didn't have a lot of payroll and, frankly, Maybin wasn't needed IF Sizeomore is healthy (a big IF) and Miller isn't any great shakes, but what about Uggla? He could have solidified this offense for a year and netted us two top draft picks next year. And something about Maybin reminds me of Joe Carter who only needed a change of scenery and lots of reps on a rebuilding team to change from his dismal performance in Chicago to blossoming in Cleveland and then Toronto. I might have taken a shot at Maybin just because you have a reasonable downside and superstar upside, acquired for not much in terms of needed parts. Miller? I would have taken him to try to catch lightning in a bottle. When you are a rebuilding, small market team, you take those chances.
The point is: would the Indians have given up that much? Donald is a utility guy. Lewis and Perez, at different times, have been on the outs with this organization and Judy is an untested rookie. The Indians would have given up spare parts to get Uggla, Maybin and Miller, the latter two of whom could have been spun off if needed.
A lot of fans from all over baseball are scratching their heads on the small returns for these guys. I am sure the Marlins fans are thinking they were robbed and, in terms of rebuilding this team, they were.
Time will tell but these three trades may have really hampered the Marlins for the next few years, not because of the guys they gave up but because of the guys who came back, none of whom are the kind that you want to rebuild a franchise around.
Well, it's just a pipedream. The Indians didn't want to add salary and Uggla would have cost a bundle. But, nevertheless, to get 3 'names' like this on the cheap (in terms of talent given up)....it's hard to pass up, even with the increased payroll.
Jason Donald, Jensen Lewis (or maybe Joe Smith), Josh Judy and Rafael Perez might have done it. Would that have been too much or too little to pay for these three guys?
Well, the Indians didn't have a lot of payroll and, frankly, Maybin wasn't needed IF Sizeomore is healthy (a big IF) and Miller isn't any great shakes, but what about Uggla? He could have solidified this offense for a year and netted us two top draft picks next year. And something about Maybin reminds me of Joe Carter who only needed a change of scenery and lots of reps on a rebuilding team to change from his dismal performance in Chicago to blossoming in Cleveland and then Toronto. I might have taken a shot at Maybin just because you have a reasonable downside and superstar upside, acquired for not much in terms of needed parts. Miller? I would have taken him to try to catch lightning in a bottle. When you are a rebuilding, small market team, you take those chances.
The point is: would the Indians have given up that much? Donald is a utility guy. Lewis and Perez, at different times, have been on the outs with this organization and Judy is an untested rookie. The Indians would have given up spare parts to get Uggla, Maybin and Miller, the latter two of whom could have been spun off if needed.
A lot of fans from all over baseball are scratching their heads on the small returns for these guys. I am sure the Marlins fans are thinking they were robbed and, in terms of rebuilding this team, they were.
Time will tell but these three trades may have really hampered the Marlins for the next few years, not because of the guys they gave up but because of the guys who came back, none of whom are the kind that you want to rebuild a franchise around.
Well, it's just a pipedream. The Indians didn't want to add salary and Uggla would have cost a bundle. But, nevertheless, to get 3 'names' like this on the cheap (in terms of talent given up)....it's hard to pass up, even with the increased payroll.
40-man roster recap
The Indians made their 40-man roster decisions today, filling up their roster to the max with 5 new players, all of whom were Rule 5-eligible.
Let's do a quick analysis of the guys currently on the roster:
Overall comments: Rebuilding teams don't carry deadwood on their roster, especially with the deepest farm system in baseball. The Indians, after today, are carrying at least 5 guys who have proven themselves to be fringe major leagues/AAAA players. If a team is non-competitive next year, why do you need a Shelly Duncan or Justin Germano taking reps away from real prospects who have to be evaluated? If the team is competitive, why does it need AAAA guys? That is why guys like Duncan and Germano are minor league FA insurance policies, not 40-man roster cloggers. Any one of two of our 5 deadwood guys below can easily be DFA'd is we sign a significant FA in their area. However, all of them are taking valuable roster spots from prospects who have some life left in them. We made a lot of headway in getting propsects on this roster. Be thankful for that. Still, we have some real exposure in the Rule 5 this year. Whether we lose a guy, who knows? But the exposure with guys who fit the Rule 5 profile, is significant. We are a rebuilding club. We have deadwood on the roster. This exposure was unnecessary.
Deadwood still present: Shelly Duncan, Justin Germano, Joe Smith, Luis Valbuena, Ezequiel Carerra
Comments: I would have cut Duncan and traded the other 4 but that may still happen down the road. Duncan is a AAAA guy. Leaving him on the roster exposes guys like Josh Rodriguez and Matt McBride, among others, to the Rule 5 draft. Rebuilding teams don't risk their prospects, no matter what level you think Rodriguez and McBride are, for Shelly Duncan. I would rather see Rodriguez and McBride fighting for ML ABs next year. While that is still possible, both have to make it through the Rule 5 draft and my suspicion is that one or both of them will be lost, especially Rodriguez. I would have also cut Valbuena. When you consider that Rodriguez has not blown his chance and Valbuena continues to spiral, how can a rebuilding team keep Valbuena when Rodriguez brings everything defensively that Valbuena brings PLUS some offensive upside. I am OK with Germano and Carrera. Both of them, and even Valbuena, can be DFA'd if we sign someone who needs their roster spot. Still, Rodriguez should be on this roster and Smith traded.
As I said, I would have traded Smith. ROOGYs are a luxury that a small market, rebuilding club cannot afford. Plus, he is a roster clogger.
Newbies:McAllister, Kluber, Judy, Goedert, Hagadone
Comments: You know, when you make a bad trade like we did with Westbrook, rostering a guy like Kluber, who gave up 38 hits and 10 walks in 26 innings after the trade, is just piling stupidity onto stupidity. As predicted on another site, though, when Mark Shapiro mentions you in PR material, you are going to be rostered. Let's see in 3 years whether Kluber or Josh Rodriguez should have been rostered or, even more appropriate, how Paulo Espino does. Espino has a chance to be drafted in the Rule 5 and used as we used Ambriz last year. Espino is a shortish righty but he has enough stuff to get righthanded hitters out in the pros.
Significant non-additions: Adam Miller, Paulo Espino, Josh Rodriguez, Matt McBride, Jerad Head, John Drennen, Beau Mills, Connor Graham and Wes Hodges.
Comments: Obviously all these guys are now Rule 5 eligible. Twenty years of following the Rule 5 draft tells me this about predicting it: It's totally unpredictable. However, I would much rather have Miller, Espino and Rodriguez on our roster than some of the deadwood above. McBride and Head may be safe and, right now, Mills, Drennen, Graham and Hodges do not fit the mold of guys selected in the Rule 5 draft. Unfortunately, Miller, Espino (as a 6th inning guy) and Rodriguez MORE than fit that mold. Even though I can't predict the Rule 5 with any accuracy, my suspicion is that all of Miller, Espino and Rodriguez get drafted. Don't think McBride or Head will but if a team sees them as a good utility guy who can catch in an emergency, they may get popped, too.
Let's do a quick analysis of the guys currently on the roster:
Overall comments: Rebuilding teams don't carry deadwood on their roster, especially with the deepest farm system in baseball. The Indians, after today, are carrying at least 5 guys who have proven themselves to be fringe major leagues/AAAA players. If a team is non-competitive next year, why do you need a Shelly Duncan or Justin Germano taking reps away from real prospects who have to be evaluated? If the team is competitive, why does it need AAAA guys? That is why guys like Duncan and Germano are minor league FA insurance policies, not 40-man roster cloggers. Any one of two of our 5 deadwood guys below can easily be DFA'd is we sign a significant FA in their area. However, all of them are taking valuable roster spots from prospects who have some life left in them. We made a lot of headway in getting propsects on this roster. Be thankful for that. Still, we have some real exposure in the Rule 5 this year. Whether we lose a guy, who knows? But the exposure with guys who fit the Rule 5 profile, is significant. We are a rebuilding club. We have deadwood on the roster. This exposure was unnecessary.
Deadwood still present: Shelly Duncan, Justin Germano, Joe Smith, Luis Valbuena, Ezequiel Carerra
Comments: I would have cut Duncan and traded the other 4 but that may still happen down the road. Duncan is a AAAA guy. Leaving him on the roster exposes guys like Josh Rodriguez and Matt McBride, among others, to the Rule 5 draft. Rebuilding teams don't risk their prospects, no matter what level you think Rodriguez and McBride are, for Shelly Duncan. I would rather see Rodriguez and McBride fighting for ML ABs next year. While that is still possible, both have to make it through the Rule 5 draft and my suspicion is that one or both of them will be lost, especially Rodriguez. I would have also cut Valbuena. When you consider that Rodriguez has not blown his chance and Valbuena continues to spiral, how can a rebuilding team keep Valbuena when Rodriguez brings everything defensively that Valbuena brings PLUS some offensive upside. I am OK with Germano and Carrera. Both of them, and even Valbuena, can be DFA'd if we sign someone who needs their roster spot. Still, Rodriguez should be on this roster and Smith traded.
As I said, I would have traded Smith. ROOGYs are a luxury that a small market, rebuilding club cannot afford. Plus, he is a roster clogger.
Newbies:McAllister, Kluber, Judy, Goedert, Hagadone
Comments: You know, when you make a bad trade like we did with Westbrook, rostering a guy like Kluber, who gave up 38 hits and 10 walks in 26 innings after the trade, is just piling stupidity onto stupidity. As predicted on another site, though, when Mark Shapiro mentions you in PR material, you are going to be rostered. Let's see in 3 years whether Kluber or Josh Rodriguez should have been rostered or, even more appropriate, how Paulo Espino does. Espino has a chance to be drafted in the Rule 5 and used as we used Ambriz last year. Espino is a shortish righty but he has enough stuff to get righthanded hitters out in the pros.
Significant non-additions: Adam Miller, Paulo Espino, Josh Rodriguez, Matt McBride, Jerad Head, John Drennen, Beau Mills, Connor Graham and Wes Hodges.
Comments: Obviously all these guys are now Rule 5 eligible. Twenty years of following the Rule 5 draft tells me this about predicting it: It's totally unpredictable. However, I would much rather have Miller, Espino and Rodriguez on our roster than some of the deadwood above. McBride and Head may be safe and, right now, Mills, Drennen, Graham and Hodges do not fit the mold of guys selected in the Rule 5 draft. Unfortunately, Miller, Espino (as a 6th inning guy) and Rodriguez MORE than fit that mold. Even though I can't predict the Rule 5 with any accuracy, my suspicion is that all of Miller, Espino and Rodriguez get drafted. Don't think McBride or Head will but if a team sees them as a good utility guy who can catch in an emergency, they may get popped, too.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Indians Top 100 prospects
OK, there won't be any suspense leading up to book selling here. My top 60 Indians prospects read like this (I'll add on the next 40 for an even top 100 and make updates after we move through the Rule 5 draft). Let me say this. This was one of the toughest lists ever to put together. So many guys with top 20 prospect (on this list) upside but so few having strung together more than one year of solid performance and some of them, like a number of our highly rated draft choices this year, all projection. This list could change WEEKLY next season, based on which of these guys step up to become top prospects. The first 60, at least, all have that potential! It's a good place to be because you have a lot of options and depth so not all of the guys have to make it and a bad place to be because, when you have a lot of Beau Mills-type prospects on your prospect list, you could end up with nothing..
UPDATE 1: NOVEMBER 5TH: Removed Carlos Rivero since he was lost on waivers.
UPDATE 2: NOVEMBER 17TH: I've flagged the guys and their position in BA's top 10
1. Jason Kipnis (#3 on BA Indians' top 10)
2. Drew Pomeranz (#4 on BA Indians' top 10)
3. Lonnie Chisenhall (#1 on BA Indians' top 10)
4. Alex White (#2 on BA Indians' top 10)
5. LaVon Washington (#7 of BA Indians' top 10)
6. Jason Knapp (#6 on BA Indians' top 10)
7. Nick Weglarz (#5 on BA Indians' top 10)
8. Nick Hagadone (#10 on BA Indians' top 10)
9. Jordan Brown
10. Cord Phelps
11. Kyle Blair
12. Bryce Stowell
13. Vinnie Pestano
14. Joe Gardner (#9 on BA Indians' top 10)
15. Josh Judy
16. Hector Rondon
17. Rob Bryson
18. Robbie Aviles
19. Juan Diaz
20. Zach Putnam
21. Tony Wolters (#8 on BA Indians' top 10)
22. Josh Rodriguez
23. Jordan Henry
24. Tyler Holt
25. TJ House
26. Kelvin De La Cruz
27. Austin Adams
28. Chun Chen
29. Paulo Espino
30. Jared Goedert.
31. Cole Cook
32. Alexander Perez
33. Zach McAllister
34. Matt McBride
35. Alex Lavisky
36. Ezequiel Carrera
37. Jess Todd
38. Scott Barnes
39. Felix Sterling
40. Adam Miller
41. Jerad Head
42. Matt Packer
43. Clayton Cook
44. TJ McFarland
45. Chris Jones
46. Eric Berger
47. Michael Goodnight
48. Tony Dischler
49. Roberto Perez
50. Beau Mills
51. Tyler Sturdevant
52. Cory Burns
53. Abner Abreu
54. Trey Haley
55. Bryan Price
56.. Chen Lee
57. Bo Greenwell
58. Corey Kluber
59. Jordan Cooper
60. Nick Bartolone
UPDATE 1: NOVEMBER 5TH: Removed Carlos Rivero since he was lost on waivers.
UPDATE 2: NOVEMBER 17TH: I've flagged the guys and their position in BA's top 10
1. Jason Kipnis (#3 on BA Indians' top 10)
2. Drew Pomeranz (#4 on BA Indians' top 10)
3. Lonnie Chisenhall (#1 on BA Indians' top 10)
4. Alex White (#2 on BA Indians' top 10)
5. LaVon Washington (#7 of BA Indians' top 10)
6. Jason Knapp (#6 on BA Indians' top 10)
7. Nick Weglarz (#5 on BA Indians' top 10)
8. Nick Hagadone (#10 on BA Indians' top 10)
9. Jordan Brown
10. Cord Phelps
11. Kyle Blair
12. Bryce Stowell
13. Vinnie Pestano
14. Joe Gardner (#9 on BA Indians' top 10)
15. Josh Judy
16. Hector Rondon
17. Rob Bryson
18. Robbie Aviles
19. Juan Diaz
20. Zach Putnam
21. Tony Wolters (#8 on BA Indians' top 10)
22. Josh Rodriguez
23. Jordan Henry
24. Tyler Holt
25. TJ House
26. Kelvin De La Cruz
27. Austin Adams
28. Chun Chen
29. Paulo Espino
30. Jared Goedert.
31. Cole Cook
32. Alexander Perez
33. Zach McAllister
34. Matt McBride
35. Alex Lavisky
36. Ezequiel Carrera
37. Jess Todd
38. Scott Barnes
39. Felix Sterling
40. Adam Miller
41. Jerad Head
42. Matt Packer
43. Clayton Cook
44. TJ McFarland
45. Chris Jones
46. Eric Berger
47. Michael Goodnight
48. Tony Dischler
49. Roberto Perez
50. Beau Mills
51. Tyler Sturdevant
52. Cory Burns
53. Abner Abreu
54. Trey Haley
55. Bryan Price
56.. Chen Lee
57. Bo Greenwell
58. Corey Kluber
59. Jordan Cooper
60. Nick Bartolone
It's 40-man roster time
Ok, its November, the WS is over, and it's time to fill the 40-man roster. Today we will analyze what the Indians will do.
Here is how the Indians should populate their 40-man roster and who should be removed and added and who should stay (NOTE: The Indians have already made several moves, all of which I would have made, to remove guys from their roster; TODAY THEY MADE MORE: SEE ALL CAPS BELOW):
Pitchers (20 including adding 5 and removing 2 in addition to the 2 already removed) :
Nick Hagadone (add)
Paulo Espino (add)
Josh Judy (add)
Vinnie Pestano (current)
Josh Tomlin (current)
Frank Herrmann (current)
Jeanmar Gomez (current)
Fausto Carmona (current)
Carlos Carrasco (current)
Chris Perez (current)
David Huff (current)
Jensen Lewis (current)
Justin Masterson (current)
Rafael Perez (current)
Tony Sipp (current)
Hector Rondon (current)
Mitch Talbot (current)
Jess Todd (current)
Aaron Laffey (current - hold spot for acquistion of starting pitcher)
Zach McAllister (add)
Joe Smith (trade or remove)
Justin Germano (trade or remove)
Anthony Reyes (already removed)
Hector Ambriz (already removed)
Catchers (2):
Carlos Santana
Lou Marson
Luke Carlin (already removed)
Chris Gimenez (already removed)
Infielders: (8, including 3 added and 4 removed)
Matt LaPorta (current)
Asdrubal Cabrera (current)
Jason Donald (current)
Luis Valbuena (current - keep until sign 3B stopgap)
Josh Rodriguez (add)
Jerad Head (add)
Jared Goedert (add)
Jayson Nix (keep as roster insurance)
Wes Hodges (remove) NOTE: HE WAS REMOVED
Carlos Rivero (remove) NOTE: HE WAS REMOVED
Drew Sutton (remove) NOTE: HE WAS REMOVED
Andy Marte (remove) NOTE: HE WAS REMOVED
Outfielders: (7 - add none, remove 2)
Grady Sizemore (current)
Michael Brantley (current)
Jordan Brown (current)
Shin-Soo Choo (current)
Trevor Crowe (current)
Nick Weglarz (current)
Ezequiel Carrera (current - hold if need a roster spot)
Chad Huffman (remove) NOTE: HE WAS REMOVED
Shelley Duncan (remove)
Designated Hitter (1)
Travis Hafner
That gives us 38 and allows us some flexibility if we want to add someone in the Rule 5 draft AND we have some flexibility (Valbuena and Laffey) if we add a starting pitcher and stop-gap thirdbaseman. At the same time, we remove dead wood from the roster and protect "B" prospects who might not be better than the deadwood, but who deserve a chance to show what they have.
The significant guys who become Rule 5 eligible from these moves are: Rivero (LOST ON WAIVERS TO PHILLY, HEY, YOU CAN'T WAIT FOREVER FOR A GUY TO DEVELOP), Matt McBride, Connor Graham, Adam Miller, Ambriz.
The guys who can become minor league free agents from this are: Huffman, Duncan, Sutton, Hodges, Germano, Joe Smith, Marte, Anthony Reyes, Chris Gimenez, Jose Constanza. The goal would be to re-sign Hodges, Germano and Gimenez and trade all or most of the rest of these guys we still have under control before November 20th. If we re-sign any of these guys, they become Rule 5-eligible at that point.
This is just my take but it is time this roster is turned over. It is also time we went out on the limb with some of our young guys. I know it is like a mantra to me but, darn, I dont' want to see any more of guys like Sutton, Huffman, Duncan, Anderson Hernandez, Grudz, Redmond, Kearns, etc. here UNLESS they are on exclusively minor league deals. It is time we populated this roster with, AND used, guys like Josh Judy and Jess Todd.
Here is how the Indians should populate their 40-man roster and who should be removed and added and who should stay (NOTE: The Indians have already made several moves, all of which I would have made, to remove guys from their roster; TODAY THEY MADE MORE: SEE ALL CAPS BELOW):
Pitchers (20 including adding 5 and removing 2 in addition to the 2 already removed) :
Nick Hagadone (add)
Paulo Espino (add)
Josh Judy (add)
Vinnie Pestano (current)
Josh Tomlin (current)
Frank Herrmann (current)
Jeanmar Gomez (current)
Fausto Carmona (current)
Carlos Carrasco (current)
Chris Perez (current)
David Huff (current)
Jensen Lewis (current)
Justin Masterson (current)
Rafael Perez (current)
Tony Sipp (current)
Hector Rondon (current)
Mitch Talbot (current)
Jess Todd (current)
Aaron Laffey (current - hold spot for acquistion of starting pitcher)
Zach McAllister (add)
Joe Smith (trade or remove)
Justin Germano (trade or remove)
Anthony Reyes (already removed)
Hector Ambriz (already removed)
Catchers (2):
Carlos Santana
Lou Marson
Luke Carlin (already removed)
Chris Gimenez (already removed)
Infielders: (8, including 3 added and 4 removed)
Matt LaPorta (current)
Asdrubal Cabrera (current)
Jason Donald (current)
Luis Valbuena (current - keep until sign 3B stopgap)
Josh Rodriguez (add)
Jerad Head (add)
Jared Goedert (add)
Jayson Nix (keep as roster insurance)
Wes Hodges (remove) NOTE: HE WAS REMOVED
Carlos Rivero (remove) NOTE: HE WAS REMOVED
Drew Sutton (remove) NOTE: HE WAS REMOVED
Andy Marte (remove) NOTE: HE WAS REMOVED
Outfielders: (7 - add none, remove 2)
Grady Sizemore (current)
Michael Brantley (current)
Jordan Brown (current)
Shin-Soo Choo (current)
Trevor Crowe (current)
Nick Weglarz (current)
Ezequiel Carrera (current - hold if need a roster spot)
Chad Huffman (remove) NOTE: HE WAS REMOVED
Shelley Duncan (remove)
Designated Hitter (1)
Travis Hafner
That gives us 38 and allows us some flexibility if we want to add someone in the Rule 5 draft AND we have some flexibility (Valbuena and Laffey) if we add a starting pitcher and stop-gap thirdbaseman. At the same time, we remove dead wood from the roster and protect "B" prospects who might not be better than the deadwood, but who deserve a chance to show what they have.
The significant guys who become Rule 5 eligible from these moves are: Rivero (LOST ON WAIVERS TO PHILLY, HEY, YOU CAN'T WAIT FOREVER FOR A GUY TO DEVELOP), Matt McBride, Connor Graham, Adam Miller, Ambriz.
The guys who can become minor league free agents from this are: Huffman, Duncan, Sutton, Hodges, Germano, Joe Smith, Marte, Anthony Reyes, Chris Gimenez, Jose Constanza. The goal would be to re-sign Hodges, Germano and Gimenez and trade all or most of the rest of these guys we still have under control before November 20th. If we re-sign any of these guys, they become Rule 5-eligible at that point.
This is just my take but it is time this roster is turned over. It is also time we went out on the limb with some of our young guys. I know it is like a mantra to me but, darn, I dont' want to see any more of guys like Sutton, Huffman, Duncan, Anderson Hernandez, Grudz, Redmond, Kearns, etc. here UNLESS they are on exclusively minor league deals. It is time we populated this roster with, AND used, guys like Josh Judy and Jess Todd.
Friday, October 15, 2010
Random thoughts 10/15
***Adam Miller is back pitching in the fall instructional league and has signed a minor league contract with the Indians as he was a 6-year minor league free agent. I guess this was necessary for him to continue his rehab with us but it also exposes him to the Rule 5 draft. A question I have to ask is would it have made more sense to let him remain in minor league free agent until after the Rule 5 draft so he wouldn't be exposed to that draft, as he is now.
***I will have an article later but my guess is that Indians had the youngest playoff rosters in the IL, CL and Midwest Leagues. Certainly in the IL they had the fewest AAAA players of any of the playoff teams, maybe counting the PCL, as well. This is a testament to the DEPTH of our system.
***I saw a recent blog article from a known FO supporter that rationalized the Indians' late season winning ways that dropped them about 4-5 spots in the draft this next June. I wonder if the writer realizes that this drops the Indians down 4-5 spots in EVERY round? Also, an analysis like that is begging to be picked apart as its premise was too simplistic for the complex system that is the draft. Sometimes teams draft guys like Casey Weathers or Matt Bush and this really skews the results. A better way of looking at it is if you compare how the players ranked, talent-wise, at draft time and how they ended up as players. This removes stupidity and cheapness from the equation. Face it, there is no rationalizing that these meaningless September winning streaks while all the rest of the loser teams are tanking it or winning just enough to keep a top slot, are costing us BIG TIME. It's all about draft options and we have a lot less at #8 than we would have had at #4, no matter how the FO supporters try to spin it.
***I'd really like to see us package Andy Marte and Trevor Crowe for an AZL or GCL top 20 prospect or two. The Yankees have a couple of interesting ones I mean, Brian Bixler brought one (Jesus Brito) to Pittsburgh. The Branyan trade to Seattle proves, once again, that there ARE suckers out there. You just have to find them.
***I guess we are now done with the 'There was not market for Cliff Lee because he wasn't highly sought after' argument. Good sales people make their own market, especially when they have good products to sell. The returns on the Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia deals look more pathetic every day.
***I noted that Baseball America completed their league rankings. The most humerous commetn I read from a known FO-supportive blogger was wondering if the Indians had no high-ranked prospects because most of their teams played in the Midwest. Priceless! Fact is that the Indians don't have a lot of high end prospects, despite their recent bad records (i.e., high draft slots) and veteran-for-prospect trades. The team with the supposed deepest farm system in baseball had a total of SIX guys ranked in the top 20 prospects of the 6 US leagues they had teams in. In the bottom three levels (low A, shortseason A and rookie leagues) they had ZERO guys ranked in the top 20 of these leagues. Here are some thoughts:
1. Arizona League - This league was mostly Latin players and it reflects the Indians' philosophy of not signing expensive Latin amateurs. While I approve of that in most cases I would like to see the Indians take the plunge every year for a $2 million guy. Just one. Also, their signing of their top HS guys at or near the deadline hurt them here.
2. NY-Penn League - Ditto for signing of their top college guys late. However, this team should have been populated by guys from the AZL team last year, as well and that shows how questionable most of our 2009 HS and Latin signees are and points out, once again, if you don't draft quality guys who have dropped, you usually get nothing out of the draft after the first couple of rounds.
3. Midwest League - Another example of a bunch of low end prospects can win. Guys from the NY-Penn and AZL 2009 teams should have populated this list showing how devoid of prospects those teams were. Yeah, some of the top picks are looking good but, after that, it looks like we just mailed it in.
4. Carolina, Eastern and IL. - Here is where the depth starts to show up but note that we had only one guy higher than #6 in any of those leagues (Santana) which means, at best, we are looking at solid ML careers but not superstardom from Chisenhall, White and Kipnis and #4-5 starter upside for Carrasco (even though I think it may be a lot higher) and 4th outfielder status for Jordan Henry (we have somewhere on the order of 100 prospects and ML outfielders who fit that profile, however).
Note that we were better than league average (20 prospects divided by # teams in the league) in FOUR of those 6 leagues. The Yankees beat us in prospects in the IL and EL. Heck, so did the Pirates in the IL.
***I will have an article later but my guess is that Indians had the youngest playoff rosters in the IL, CL and Midwest Leagues. Certainly in the IL they had the fewest AAAA players of any of the playoff teams, maybe counting the PCL, as well. This is a testament to the DEPTH of our system.
***I saw a recent blog article from a known FO supporter that rationalized the Indians' late season winning ways that dropped them about 4-5 spots in the draft this next June. I wonder if the writer realizes that this drops the Indians down 4-5 spots in EVERY round? Also, an analysis like that is begging to be picked apart as its premise was too simplistic for the complex system that is the draft. Sometimes teams draft guys like Casey Weathers or Matt Bush and this really skews the results. A better way of looking at it is if you compare how the players ranked, talent-wise, at draft time and how they ended up as players. This removes stupidity and cheapness from the equation. Face it, there is no rationalizing that these meaningless September winning streaks while all the rest of the loser teams are tanking it or winning just enough to keep a top slot, are costing us BIG TIME. It's all about draft options and we have a lot less at #8 than we would have had at #4, no matter how the FO supporters try to spin it.
***I'd really like to see us package Andy Marte and Trevor Crowe for an AZL or GCL top 20 prospect or two. The Yankees have a couple of interesting ones I mean, Brian Bixler brought one (Jesus Brito) to Pittsburgh. The Branyan trade to Seattle proves, once again, that there ARE suckers out there. You just have to find them.
***I guess we are now done with the 'There was not market for Cliff Lee because he wasn't highly sought after' argument. Good sales people make their own market, especially when they have good products to sell. The returns on the Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia deals look more pathetic every day.
***I noted that Baseball America completed their league rankings. The most humerous commetn I read from a known FO-supportive blogger was wondering if the Indians had no high-ranked prospects because most of their teams played in the Midwest. Priceless! Fact is that the Indians don't have a lot of high end prospects, despite their recent bad records (i.e., high draft slots) and veteran-for-prospect trades. The team with the supposed deepest farm system in baseball had a total of SIX guys ranked in the top 20 prospects of the 6 US leagues they had teams in. In the bottom three levels (low A, shortseason A and rookie leagues) they had ZERO guys ranked in the top 20 of these leagues. Here are some thoughts:
1. Arizona League - This league was mostly Latin players and it reflects the Indians' philosophy of not signing expensive Latin amateurs. While I approve of that in most cases I would like to see the Indians take the plunge every year for a $2 million guy. Just one. Also, their signing of their top HS guys at or near the deadline hurt them here.
2. NY-Penn League - Ditto for signing of their top college guys late. However, this team should have been populated by guys from the AZL team last year, as well and that shows how questionable most of our 2009 HS and Latin signees are and points out, once again, if you don't draft quality guys who have dropped, you usually get nothing out of the draft after the first couple of rounds.
3. Midwest League - Another example of a bunch of low end prospects can win. Guys from the NY-Penn and AZL 2009 teams should have populated this list showing how devoid of prospects those teams were. Yeah, some of the top picks are looking good but, after that, it looks like we just mailed it in.
4. Carolina, Eastern and IL. - Here is where the depth starts to show up but note that we had only one guy higher than #6 in any of those leagues (Santana) which means, at best, we are looking at solid ML careers but not superstardom from Chisenhall, White and Kipnis and #4-5 starter upside for Carrasco (even though I think it may be a lot higher) and 4th outfielder status for Jordan Henry (we have somewhere on the order of 100 prospects and ML outfielders who fit that profile, however).
Note that we were better than league average (20 prospects divided by # teams in the league) in FOUR of those 6 leagues. The Yankees beat us in prospects in the IL and EL. Heck, so did the Pirates in the IL.
Saturday, October 9, 2010
Put me in coach, I'm ready to play
One of my pet peeves with the Indians, especially recently, is their maddening infatuation with AAAA and fringe major league/career backup players. This year they started a season where they had little or no chance of even playing .500 ball with FIVE of those guys on the roster: Mark Grudzielanek, Jamey Wright, Austin Kearns, Mike Redmond and Russell Branyan.
Now if a team doesn't have prospect alternatives then sometimes those teams are forced to use these types of veterans, guys who have ML experience and who are willing to sit on a ML bench and know how to come off that bench. As I said, at the beginning of the season there were plenty of alternatives for these guys with the likes of Trevor Crowe, Wyatt Toregas, Jess Todd, Frank Hermann, Jason Donald, Chris Gimenez and even Josh Rodriguez and Wes Hodges ready for extended ML shots. Obviously injuries to Jordan Brown and others muddied the water as far as prospects getting good ML shots in a lost season, but still, we were CRAWLING with prospects we could have plugged in instead of these guys.
However, even if you hold to the premise that a number of Indians' prospects weren't ML-ready at the beginning of the season, it is hard to argue statistically that they weren't ready by the middle of the season and certainly they were ready by September.
That is what puzzles me. In addition to the AAAA guys who started the season, we had to endure AAAA guys like Jayson Nix, Anderson Hernandez, Justin Germano and Shelly Duncan getting significant playing time during the middle of a season INSTEAD of seeing our own prospects. All of these AAAA position players showed why they own this AAAA designation and why they had been kicked to the curb by their former employer(s). Plus, even though Justin Germano performed well, his history shows he is a AAAA player. In the meantime our prospects were putting up monster numbers.
AND, even if you want to drink that Koolaid and say that our prospects needed more seasoning all the way up to close to the end of August, it is hard to argue that giving those prospects September callups was the wrong thing to do. September callups of Drew Sutton and Luke Carlin, both of whom were acquired as minor league, essentially FREE signings and are well on their way, or already at, AAAA status, were unforgiveable slaps at our real prospects. You have guys in your organization who have put up MONSTROUS years and your September callups were more AAAA guys? Embarassing.
In addition, by September you knew what you had in Trevor Crowe and Andy Marte. The former, with plenty of playing time, proved himself to be a dime-a-dozen 4th outfielder. The latter proved that his prospect star had faded. Both had established themselves pretty convincingly as AAAA players by then. They both could have had their playing time eliminated and given to other guys and Marte could have easily been DFA'd at no real loss to the Indians.
This trend has GOT to stop. There is no reason that some or all of these guys should not have seen ML time this year, especially in light of the pathetic AAAA guys who paraded through Cleveland during the season.
Some fans want to explain this away as the guys aren't really ready or that bringing up a bunch of prospects will create 40-man roster issues in the off-season and these guys might be lost to waivers if they are DFA'd. Some even claim that these "prospects" aren't really prospects at all, just AAA guys waiting to happen.
Well, if you think that a 27 year old super-utility guy like Head is not a prospect then what do you think the 27-year old Sutton who is with his 3rd organization is? Plus, Sutton had all of about 15 minutes with the organization when he was called up to Cleveland and Head, in his 5th season as a loyal, hardworking employee of this organization, was polishing off a great season by leading Columbus to the AAA championship.
I am SICK AND TIRED in 90+ loss seasons that are, essentially, over by Memorial Day if not opening day, of seeing undeserving, irrelevant or AAAA/fringe major league guys like Niuman Romero, Luis Vizcaino, Greg Aquino, Jose Veras, Vinnie Chulk, etc. (2009) and Grudz, Redmond, Kearns, Nix, Duncan, Hernandez, Wright, Sutton and Carlin (2010) get ML playing time when our minor leaguers who are having GREAT seasons and who have been scratching and clawing for years just to get one little taste of the majors, are constantly passed over and not even given the ML experience that they deserve based on their performance and their servitude to this organization.
I think it is disgraceful and I really, really think the Indians need to rethink how they treat their employees to say nothing about maybe rethinking their scouting process as many times guys perform better when they get a chance than when they are struggling to get that chance and are stuck at AAA (see Brandon Phillips and Jeremy Guthrie as prime examples of that).
Let's change this method of operation, Indians. It is embarassing to the organization and spits in the faces of players who have been dreaming of playing in the majors since they were little kids and have earned, by their performance, a chance to prove they belong in the majors.
Now if a team doesn't have prospect alternatives then sometimes those teams are forced to use these types of veterans, guys who have ML experience and who are willing to sit on a ML bench and know how to come off that bench. As I said, at the beginning of the season there were plenty of alternatives for these guys with the likes of Trevor Crowe, Wyatt Toregas, Jess Todd, Frank Hermann, Jason Donald, Chris Gimenez and even Josh Rodriguez and Wes Hodges ready for extended ML shots. Obviously injuries to Jordan Brown and others muddied the water as far as prospects getting good ML shots in a lost season, but still, we were CRAWLING with prospects we could have plugged in instead of these guys.
However, even if you hold to the premise that a number of Indians' prospects weren't ML-ready at the beginning of the season, it is hard to argue statistically that they weren't ready by the middle of the season and certainly they were ready by September.
That is what puzzles me. In addition to the AAAA guys who started the season, we had to endure AAAA guys like Jayson Nix, Anderson Hernandez, Justin Germano and Shelly Duncan getting significant playing time during the middle of a season INSTEAD of seeing our own prospects. All of these AAAA position players showed why they own this AAAA designation and why they had been kicked to the curb by their former employer(s). Plus, even though Justin Germano performed well, his history shows he is a AAAA player. In the meantime our prospects were putting up monster numbers.
AND, even if you want to drink that Koolaid and say that our prospects needed more seasoning all the way up to close to the end of August, it is hard to argue that giving those prospects September callups was the wrong thing to do. September callups of Drew Sutton and Luke Carlin, both of whom were acquired as minor league, essentially FREE signings and are well on their way, or already at, AAAA status, were unforgiveable slaps at our real prospects. You have guys in your organization who have put up MONSTROUS years and your September callups were more AAAA guys? Embarassing.
In addition, by September you knew what you had in Trevor Crowe and Andy Marte. The former, with plenty of playing time, proved himself to be a dime-a-dozen 4th outfielder. The latter proved that his prospect star had faded. Both had established themselves pretty convincingly as AAAA players by then. They both could have had their playing time eliminated and given to other guys and Marte could have easily been DFA'd at no real loss to the Indians.
This trend has GOT to stop. There is no reason that some or all of these guys should not have seen ML time this year, especially in light of the pathetic AAAA guys who paraded through Cleveland during the season.
Some fans want to explain this away as the guys aren't really ready or that bringing up a bunch of prospects will create 40-man roster issues in the off-season and these guys might be lost to waivers if they are DFA'd. Some even claim that these "prospects" aren't really prospects at all, just AAA guys waiting to happen.
Well, if you think that a 27 year old super-utility guy like Head is not a prospect then what do you think the 27-year old Sutton who is with his 3rd organization is? Plus, Sutton had all of about 15 minutes with the organization when he was called up to Cleveland and Head, in his 5th season as a loyal, hardworking employee of this organization, was polishing off a great season by leading Columbus to the AAA championship.
I am SICK AND TIRED in 90+ loss seasons that are, essentially, over by Memorial Day if not opening day, of seeing undeserving, irrelevant or AAAA/fringe major league guys like Niuman Romero, Luis Vizcaino, Greg Aquino, Jose Veras, Vinnie Chulk, etc. (2009) and Grudz, Redmond, Kearns, Nix, Duncan, Hernandez, Wright, Sutton and Carlin (2010) get ML playing time when our minor leaguers who are having GREAT seasons and who have been scratching and clawing for years just to get one little taste of the majors, are constantly passed over and not even given the ML experience that they deserve based on their performance and their servitude to this organization.
I think it is disgraceful and I really, really think the Indians need to rethink how they treat their employees to say nothing about maybe rethinking their scouting process as many times guys perform better when they get a chance than when they are struggling to get that chance and are stuck at AAA (see Brandon Phillips and Jeremy Guthrie as prime examples of that).
Let's change this method of operation, Indians. It is embarassing to the organization and spits in the faces of players who have been dreaming of playing in the majors since they were little kids and have earned, by their performance, a chance to prove they belong in the majors.
Friday, October 8, 2010
Free agents and the Cleveland Indians
In the 90s signing veteran free agents was part of the catalyst that made the Indians a winner. Guys like Dennis Martinez and Orel Hershiser are almost legend and Kevin Millwood wasand made us forget about the disasters that were Wayne Garland and Rick Dempsey (he really did cost us a first round draft pick!).
However, now that we are in another rebuilding mode, I wanted to comment on free agent signings. Watching the playoffs and seeing how dominant Kerry Wood is made me look at the stats. Wood made a miraculous turnaround when he was traded to the Yankees, giving up one earning run in 24 innings after giving up 14 in 20 innings with the Indians. Even though his month-to-month stats before the trade were trending up (11 ERA in May and about 3.5 in June and July) it was nowhere near the bump he had after the trade. While that bump and his continued health saved us a few hundred thousand dollars that the Yankees paid for, it is still bothersome to me that this dramatic change occurred. We were paying this guy $10 million a year and the best one month ERA he could post for us was last August when he went 1.64?!?! He never was under 3 in any other month in his 1 1/2 years here. Sorry, the bump in performance when he went to the Yankees is just a little too coincidental for my liking. Plus, do we all realize that the guy has now moved himself up to a Type B free agent? Wouldn't that be a kick in the pants if we saved a few hundred thousand and, for that money, the Yankees got his performance PLUS a first round draft pick.
This is my point. The guy was not a bad signing IF he performed well, which was questionable from the start as we paid a king's ransom for a guy who had closed for exactly one year of his career and was oft-injured. He would have even been good trade bait if he was pitching well and we were out of the race. Problem is, from looking at the stats, it appeared the guy mailed it in during his time here making him almost untradeable (props to Shapiro for saving ANYTHING in dumping him) and only turned it on when he went to the Yankees, where he really cared about what the team did.
That's the problem with free agency and the Cleveland Indians. It appears almost impossible for Shapiro to repeat his performance taht like to him signing guys who are class acts like Martinez and Hershiser as he seems to now wind up with the guys who are only here for the paycheck like Wood and, for me, the infamous Dellucci and Hernandez duo that cost us two high draft picks and a lot of needlessly wasted money a couple of years ago. The latter group seems to not want to strain themselves too much to help out our team or make our city proud to have them here.
While all free agents are mercenaries who probably could give a crap about the uniform other than they have to play at some level to keep getting paid well, some hide it well or, in fact, appreciate the team and city that are paying them enough to make a real effort both on and off the field.
The pendulum has now swung back to where the Indians are not making good free agent signings. Hopefully the pendulum starts swinging back as we now appear to be primed for another run at the playoffs starting next year or in 2012. With the Indians talking about signing a quality thirdbaseman this winter, I am hoping that we are not getting Delllucci version 2.0 or, even worse, making another Kerry Wood-like signing.
I don't have the answer on how to sign the right free agents but this franchise has to do better at identifying the proper free agents. I think it is more about identifying WHICH of the talented players available have the appropriate personality and drive rather than just throwing money at talent. If you can't find the Martinez/Hershiser types or the bargain basement Millwood types, I would rather just go with some young guys, take my lumps and then reload next off-season. As I will point out in a later piece, you can only diss your own prospects for so long. At some point, you gotta take the leap and play these guys.
However, now that we are in another rebuilding mode, I wanted to comment on free agent signings. Watching the playoffs and seeing how dominant Kerry Wood is made me look at the stats. Wood made a miraculous turnaround when he was traded to the Yankees, giving up one earning run in 24 innings after giving up 14 in 20 innings with the Indians. Even though his month-to-month stats before the trade were trending up (11 ERA in May and about 3.5 in June and July) it was nowhere near the bump he had after the trade. While that bump and his continued health saved us a few hundred thousand dollars that the Yankees paid for, it is still bothersome to me that this dramatic change occurred. We were paying this guy $10 million a year and the best one month ERA he could post for us was last August when he went 1.64?!?! He never was under 3 in any other month in his 1 1/2 years here. Sorry, the bump in performance when he went to the Yankees is just a little too coincidental for my liking. Plus, do we all realize that the guy has now moved himself up to a Type B free agent? Wouldn't that be a kick in the pants if we saved a few hundred thousand and, for that money, the Yankees got his performance PLUS a first round draft pick.
This is my point. The guy was not a bad signing IF he performed well, which was questionable from the start as we paid a king's ransom for a guy who had closed for exactly one year of his career and was oft-injured. He would have even been good trade bait if he was pitching well and we were out of the race. Problem is, from looking at the stats, it appeared the guy mailed it in during his time here making him almost untradeable (props to Shapiro for saving ANYTHING in dumping him) and only turned it on when he went to the Yankees, where he really cared about what the team did.
That's the problem with free agency and the Cleveland Indians. It appears almost impossible for Shapiro to repeat his performance taht like to him signing guys who are class acts like Martinez and Hershiser as he seems to now wind up with the guys who are only here for the paycheck like Wood and, for me, the infamous Dellucci and Hernandez duo that cost us two high draft picks and a lot of needlessly wasted money a couple of years ago. The latter group seems to not want to strain themselves too much to help out our team or make our city proud to have them here.
While all free agents are mercenaries who probably could give a crap about the uniform other than they have to play at some level to keep getting paid well, some hide it well or, in fact, appreciate the team and city that are paying them enough to make a real effort both on and off the field.
The pendulum has now swung back to where the Indians are not making good free agent signings. Hopefully the pendulum starts swinging back as we now appear to be primed for another run at the playoffs starting next year or in 2012. With the Indians talking about signing a quality thirdbaseman this winter, I am hoping that we are not getting Delllucci version 2.0 or, even worse, making another Kerry Wood-like signing.
I don't have the answer on how to sign the right free agents but this franchise has to do better at identifying the proper free agents. I think it is more about identifying WHICH of the talented players available have the appropriate personality and drive rather than just throwing money at talent. If you can't find the Martinez/Hershiser types or the bargain basement Millwood types, I would rather just go with some young guys, take my lumps and then reload next off-season. As I will point out in a later piece, you can only diss your own prospects for so long. At some point, you gotta take the leap and play these guys.
Monday, October 4, 2010
We're off and running!
Hello from a lifelong Indians fan. I have written many articles on various topics regarding baseball and the Clevelan Indians. These articles span topics such as the first year player draft, Rule 5 draft, instructional league, extended spring training and others. Some of these articles are plagerized even to today. I have written for the Cleveland Fan and Indians Prospect Insider.
I have also posted on many Cleveland Indians' fan sites over the years and have been kicked off most. Not for bad language but, rather, because my opinion is considered too negative and I like to focus on what needs to be fixed rather than what is going well. When you have consecutive 90 loss seasons with only a marginal chance for better in 2011, not much is going well.
OK, let's start with the facts:
If you are here you are:
What I am is ant-front office stupidity, anti-dissing prospects in favor of minor league free agents and overpriced free agent mercenaries who don't give a crap about Cleveland other than it is a paycheck. I am pro spending lots of money SMARTLY on the draft every year and have been for years before it recently came into vogue on most Indians' fan boards and with the Indians, themselves.
Despite popular belief I am supportive of all prospect rating systems and individuals to a degree but do respect the veteran publications, specifically Baseball America, who have been doing this for years.
So, if you want my opinion, welcome. If you don't then don't hang around.
Dennis Nosco
I have also posted on many Cleveland Indians' fan sites over the years and have been kicked off most. Not for bad language but, rather, because my opinion is considered too negative and I like to focus on what needs to be fixed rather than what is going well. When you have consecutive 90 loss seasons with only a marginal chance for better in 2011, not much is going well.
OK, let's start with the facts:
If you are here you are:
- probably a fan of the Cleveland Indians
- are curious to see what will be posted here
- not turned off to my opinion
What I am is ant-front office stupidity, anti-dissing prospects in favor of minor league free agents and overpriced free agent mercenaries who don't give a crap about Cleveland other than it is a paycheck. I am pro spending lots of money SMARTLY on the draft every year and have been for years before it recently came into vogue on most Indians' fan boards and with the Indians, themselves.
Despite popular belief I am supportive of all prospect rating systems and individuals to a degree but do respect the veteran publications, specifically Baseball America, who have been doing this for years.
So, if you want my opinion, welcome. If you don't then don't hang around.
Dennis Nosco
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