To no one's surprise, or at least it SHOULD be to no one's surprise, after trading successful minor league reliever Corey Burns, the Indians have lost Josh Judy on waivers...to the Reds. All this for Aaron Freakin' Cunningham.
Judy IS a top 20 Indians' prospect. (NOTE: Something I read on an Indians forum was that Rafael Perez topped out as the #11 prospect for the Tribe right after his first ML September experience, Judy has almost as high a rating after his: makes you think about the real worth of Josh Judy, doesn't it?) (NOTE: Baseball America had him as the #23 Indians' prospect and Cory Burns as their top RHRP not making the top 30 in their upcoming list, and I had Judy ranked as #17 and most other lists published so far only went to 15 or 16 and did not mention Judy.) Judy has not failed meaning he does not hold the AAAA tag that Cunningham does. Judy was primed to help in the big leagues in 2012. You don't lose guys on waivers, not if you are the current version (major and minor leagues) of the Cleveland Indians. You just don't
Cunninham, is a AAAA player, someone who can do well in AAA but not the majors. His AAA stats are meaningless since they came last year in his 4th year at that level. He is a dime a dozen guy you can sign as a minor league free agent or pick up as DFA (see Jai Miller for example). You don't have to trade for him.
Judy is an Indians' top 20 prospect. We lost him and got NOTHING back for him. NOTHING and we lost Cory Burns, too. No one should have a problem losing Judy and Burns but I do have a very big issue with losing both of them as a result of trading for a AAAA guy like Cunningham. You can't blow off losing Judy and Burns just because they aren't all-stars. You have to get value for them and we got squat in value. That is unacceptable..
We left outfielders Thomas Neal, Nick Weglarz, Ezequiel Carrera and Shelly Duncan on the roster, any of whom could have been DFA'd instead of Josh Judy and would have been less of a loss. In fact other pitchers like Corey Kluber, Frank Herrmann or Danny Salazar could have beeen DFA'd and none would have been as big a loss as Josh Judy..
We gave up the farm for Jimenez and, instead of continuing to build this team, we continue to tear down the future of this team without improving it!
Chris Antonneti has botched his time as GM. His Jimenez trade was questionable at the time, giving up 3 of our top 10 pitching prospects without the team to back Jimenez up. His moves since then have been pathetic and misguided. You don't trade for Cunningham if you are negotiating with Beltran and Cameron and, in fact, given his lack of ability, you don't TRADE for Cunningham at all. You wait for him to be DFA'd this spring and pick him up on waivers. You don't add salary in Lowe if you aren't going to do anything else.
Take away the 30-15 start last year and the 2010 Indians = 2011 Indians in record. And we have this kind of waste of talent with 5 of our best pitching prospects leaving the organization without an increase in talent anywhere close to enough to be competitive in the AL Central. That is just pathetic. That is the KC Royals, Pittsburgh Pirates and Houston Astros all rolled into one.
Pathetic beyond words and very, very aggravating!
Friday, December 23, 2011
Friday, December 16, 2011
Now I have to question the intelligence of Chris Antonetti
Well, that didn't take long! Chris Antonetti's intelligence is officially in question. He just traded for a AAAA outfielder who is, BTW, out of options meaning he has to remain on the team all year. This trade definitely cost the Indians one viable relief prospect and is likely to cost him a second one.
Aaron Cunningham is the outfielder acquired and here are his stats
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cunniaa01.shtml
He hit .178 last year. He is a career .231 hitter in the majors. He has 270 games in AAA and has been with 4 organizations. That is almost the exact definition of a AAAA player. He is MUCH worse for this team than Shelly Duncan, with whom he would be competing for playing time. He has no speed, no power, doesn't walk much, is not a good defender and is mostly a left fielder in the majors and the minors. If I read the numbers right, he is out of options meaning that we have to pass him through waivers to even get him to the minors and the icing on the cake is, if I understand this correctly, he also becomes a 6-year minor league free agent if we ever put him on and he clears waivers, meaning he can walk without us getting anything. So, unless we keep him in the majors for the rest of his career, which is unlikely based on his stats and history, we will probably lose him for nothing.
Now, here is what we lost:
We traded Cory Burns, a possible middle reliever here as early as this year and had to DFA Josh Judy, a guy who was likely to make this team this year as an inexpensive middle reliever with good upside and who can now be picked up on waivers. At the same time we kept Shelly Duncan on this roster and didn't DFA Thomas Neal who is redundant with Cunningham, was hurt most of last year, is a questionable prospect now and who would most likely have passed through waivers more easily.than Judy.
You have to ask yourself these questions about this trade:
1. Why did Cunningham cost more in prospects than Derek Lowe did?
2. Why did we trade for a fringe guy who is redundant to what we already have in the majors and minors, is not likely to make our team out of spring training, is out of options and can walk as a 6-year minor league free agent if he clears waivers, which he will have to do if we try to send him to the minors?
3. Why dump Josh Judy, a viable relief prospect, from your roster instead of Thomas Neal, who is redundant to Cunningham?
4. What does Cunningham add, given his lack of skill and the fact that he will actually compete with Shelly Duncan for playing time?
5. Could the Indians have really rated Burns and Judy so low that they would be willing to make a trade for a AAAA outifielder knowing that it is likely to cost them BOTH of these pitching prospects?
6. Why give away your two best pitching prospects in Pomeranz and White to get 2 1/2 years of Ubaldo Jimenez if this is the type of player you will back him up with? So far it appears we have added Lowe, Cunningham/ Felix Pie and Jose Lopez this winter and re-signed Sizemore.
This is the type of move that really makes me over-the-top angry. What elevates that to an even higher level is the absolutely ridiculous rationalizations going on on various Indians' forums as pro-FO forumites try to spin an absolutely stupid trade by dissing the guys we give up and totally ignoring the circumstances that make this trade stupidly ridiculous from a logistical level (competition with Duncan, lack of definable skill that has Cunningham helping us next year, the fact that Cunningham is out of options and is probably a guy who could walk as a 6-year minor league free agent).
Wake up, Cleveland and smell the coffee. This move was stupid, we lost viable prospects for a AAAA outfielder with not one average tool and really puts into question Antonetti's intelligence.
12/19: Now I read on MLB Trade Rumors that the Indians are in serious negotiations with outfielder Mike Cameron. How stupid would the above trade look if we got Cameron and, as a result, Cunningham became redundant and we lost him next spring and we lost Judy in addition to already losing Burns!?!?!?!
12/19 (2) : Cameron to sign with Washington on a minor league deal. Interesting. We'll see what else the Indians do.
Aaron Cunningham is the outfielder acquired and here are his stats
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cunniaa01.shtml
He hit .178 last year. He is a career .231 hitter in the majors. He has 270 games in AAA and has been with 4 organizations. That is almost the exact definition of a AAAA player. He is MUCH worse for this team than Shelly Duncan, with whom he would be competing for playing time. He has no speed, no power, doesn't walk much, is not a good defender and is mostly a left fielder in the majors and the minors. If I read the numbers right, he is out of options meaning that we have to pass him through waivers to even get him to the minors and the icing on the cake is, if I understand this correctly, he also becomes a 6-year minor league free agent if we ever put him on and he clears waivers, meaning he can walk without us getting anything. So, unless we keep him in the majors for the rest of his career, which is unlikely based on his stats and history, we will probably lose him for nothing.
Now, here is what we lost:
We traded Cory Burns, a possible middle reliever here as early as this year and had to DFA Josh Judy, a guy who was likely to make this team this year as an inexpensive middle reliever with good upside and who can now be picked up on waivers. At the same time we kept Shelly Duncan on this roster and didn't DFA Thomas Neal who is redundant with Cunningham, was hurt most of last year, is a questionable prospect now and who would most likely have passed through waivers more easily.than Judy.
You have to ask yourself these questions about this trade:
1. Why did Cunningham cost more in prospects than Derek Lowe did?
2. Why did we trade for a fringe guy who is redundant to what we already have in the majors and minors, is not likely to make our team out of spring training, is out of options and can walk as a 6-year minor league free agent if he clears waivers, which he will have to do if we try to send him to the minors?
3. Why dump Josh Judy, a viable relief prospect, from your roster instead of Thomas Neal, who is redundant to Cunningham?
4. What does Cunningham add, given his lack of skill and the fact that he will actually compete with Shelly Duncan for playing time?
5. Could the Indians have really rated Burns and Judy so low that they would be willing to make a trade for a AAAA outifielder knowing that it is likely to cost them BOTH of these pitching prospects?
6. Why give away your two best pitching prospects in Pomeranz and White to get 2 1/2 years of Ubaldo Jimenez if this is the type of player you will back him up with? So far it appears we have added Lowe, Cunningham/ Felix Pie and Jose Lopez this winter and re-signed Sizemore.
This is the type of move that really makes me over-the-top angry. What elevates that to an even higher level is the absolutely ridiculous rationalizations going on on various Indians' forums as pro-FO forumites try to spin an absolutely stupid trade by dissing the guys we give up and totally ignoring the circumstances that make this trade stupidly ridiculous from a logistical level (competition with Duncan, lack of definable skill that has Cunningham helping us next year, the fact that Cunningham is out of options and is probably a guy who could walk as a 6-year minor league free agent).
Wake up, Cleveland and smell the coffee. This move was stupid, we lost viable prospects for a AAAA outfielder with not one average tool and really puts into question Antonetti's intelligence.
12/19: Now I read on MLB Trade Rumors that the Indians are in serious negotiations with outfielder Mike Cameron. How stupid would the above trade look if we got Cameron and, as a result, Cunningham became redundant and we lost him next spring and we lost Judy in addition to already losing Burns!?!?!?!
12/19 (2) : Cameron to sign with Washington on a minor league deal. Interesting. We'll see what else the Indians do.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Jose Lopez? Really?
Just a quick note that MLB Trade Rumors has information indicating the Indians are in serious negotiations with Jose Lopez. That's great. We need a good minor leaguer to mentor Juan Diaz and other minor league SS.
But I am not sure that is what we are talking about here. I think they are talking about signing Lopez for the MAJOR LEAGUE team. Yes, that Jose Lopez, utility infielder, owner of a .216 BA and a .245 OBP last year. We have Jason Donald. He's younger, cheaper and has more upside than Lopez. He IS our utility infielder. We don't need Lopez like we didn't need Casey Blake, although I prefer the latter more.
We do not need Jose Lopez just like we didn't need Ricky Gutierrez, Roberto Hernabndez, David Dellucci or the host of other fringe major leaguers we have signed over the last few years to take ABs and IPs away from younger guys who still have upside.
Bringing in Lopez spits in the face of the Indians trading Alex White, Drew Pomeranz, Joe Gardner and Matt McBride for Ubaldo Jimenez.
Indians: Stop driving your Mercedes up to Dollar General to do the rest of your shopping! If they sign Lopez to anything more than a minor league deal where he becomes AAA depth for the Indians, they have lost their minds.
But I am not sure that is what we are talking about here. I think they are talking about signing Lopez for the MAJOR LEAGUE team. Yes, that Jose Lopez, utility infielder, owner of a .216 BA and a .245 OBP last year. We have Jason Donald. He's younger, cheaper and has more upside than Lopez. He IS our utility infielder. We don't need Lopez like we didn't need Casey Blake, although I prefer the latter more.
We do not need Jose Lopez just like we didn't need Ricky Gutierrez, Roberto Hernabndez, David Dellucci or the host of other fringe major leaguers we have signed over the last few years to take ABs and IPs away from younger guys who still have upside.
Bringing in Lopez spits in the face of the Indians trading Alex White, Drew Pomeranz, Joe Gardner and Matt McBride for Ubaldo Jimenez.
Indians: Stop driving your Mercedes up to Dollar General to do the rest of your shopping! If they sign Lopez to anything more than a minor league deal where he becomes AAA depth for the Indians, they have lost their minds.
Monday, December 12, 2011
Albert Pujols deal: What it means to baseball and how Cleveland should view it.
Ok, so I am a lifelong Indians' fan. But, for the last 27 years of my life I have lived in St. Louis. So I have grown to like the Cardinals. Two things about Cardinals' fans: they love their baseball team and they love the statues of their baseball heroes. We have Bob Feller. They have Buck, Brock, Musial, The Wizard, the Dizz, Sisler, Red, Papa Bell, Hornsby, etc. We have one, they have a whole plaza of them outside their stadium. Believe me, it adds to the history and history brings fans, even in the lean years.
So, why am I mentioning this on a blog that is supposed to be all Indians all the time? Because, the Albert Pujols deal has just maybe set a standard for deals for megastars who are destined for the Hall of Fame. As I understand it, in his deal with the Angels, Pujols has a 10 year contract to be a consultant for the Angels after his playing days are over. If we assume his playing days will be over right after or soon after his current contract ends, then he will be an Angels' consultant for some, most or all of his 5 post-retirement years before he is eligible to be elected into the Hall of Fame.
Now, remember, after the Wade Boggs fiasco, where Tampa Bay bought their first and only Hall of Famer with a lame contract clause at the end of Boggs' career, the HOF took over selecting whose hat an inductee will wear. That is, which team he will represent in the Hall of Fame. Now, if it is not possible for the HOF to decide because a player has played for multiple teams (see Robbie Alomar), the HOF will take into consideration what the player wants. So, Pujols will play 10 years for the Angels (he has a no-trade clause), 11 years for the Cardinals and maybe a year or two for someone else. Thus the decision will probably be Pujols'. To the dismay of the fans in St. Louis my guess is that he will pick the Angels who, at that time, he will STILL be working for.
Plus, Moreno bought ALL the Albert Pujols records with this contract. Albert currently has the following rankings in all-time categories:
HR: 445 (record: 762)
Hits: 2073 (4256)
RBIs: 1329 (2297)
Doubles: 455 (792)
Walks: 975 (2558)
Runs: 1329 (2295)
Now, he probably won't break all of these records but, in the AL, with the DH, he could come closer than he would in the NL, especially in HRs and RBIs. But records or not, you will have the 500, 600 and maybe 700 HR chase, the race to 3000 hits, the all-time RBI and runs scored chase, Yes, in the latter years of the contract the LA media will be saying what the NY media is now saying about ARod's contract: that it is an albatross around the Angels' collective necks.
But Arte Moreno bought four, possibly five good years of Albert Pujols production, all of his record chasing and a HOF plaque. That's a pretty good deal, at least to me.
Meanwhile, for the Cardinals, they have few, if any, guys on their roster who have anything more than an outside shot at the Hall of Fame. Yeah, Molina, maybe. Berkman, Holliday, Carpenter, Wainwright...not so much and, even if they do get it, it may not be as Cardinals. And the Indians, looking at their recent history, have even less of a chance of anyone and especially anyone on their current roster being HOF material.
It could be a while before the Cardinals put up another statue on the plaza outside their ballpark. For the Indians, it may be even longer, maybe never! If the Indians want to avoid this drought they need to do what I have said for years and now it may be too late. They need to make amends with Thome and Vizquel. I doubt Manny ever gets in but Thome and Vizquel should be HOFers and, if they do, looking at the teams they played for and the numbers that put up, the two of them should go in as Indians. Statues are important. The Indians may have lost one when they traded Robbie Alomar, they may have lost two more when they lost Thome and Vizquel and didn't bring them back to finish their careers and, as silly as it sounds, they may have lost one by not keeping Julio Franco to be their 1B/DH instead of letting him go to Asia and other ML teams to play in his later years. Had they found a way to keep him, he would have most likely gotten 3000 hits which, for a guy who played SS half of his career, would have probably been enough.
As far as the future, if the Indians develop a guy who is HOF caliber (see Sabathia) the odds are great that they won't keep him long enough to have the HOF or the player think he should go in as an Indian and that he will get a contract that will cement him going in wearing another hat. So, Rapid Robert may be lonely for a long time on that plaza.
The Indians have an opportunity with Thome and Vizquel to get more statues to keep Feller company. Why does that opportunity exist? It's here because we kept those players long enough for them to be considered Indians. We were winning AND we spent to keep them here and they wanted to stay because we spent and we were winning. We created a case that won't be there with CC. We created a perfect storm that may not happen again in Cleveland. We had HOF caliber guys for most of the prime of their careers AND those players ended up playing for multiple teams each for only a few years after leaving Cleveland. They were and will be remembered predominantly as Cleveland Indians. .
Let's hope the Indians didn't blow it with Thome and Vizquel because Pujols contract may have changed EVERYTHING in regards to who keeps the history with respect to a HOFer. Now, Wade Boggs situation notwithstanding, owners may see that, by sucking up the bad years at the end of a contract, they can buy a HOF plaque and some needed history and tradition at the same time they are getting a player. Now THAT is an investment in the future. The Indians may never, or at least not for a long time, have another HOF player as a result. Not unless the HOF and Thome and/or Vizquel see fit to go in as Indians if they are voted in by the HOF voters. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
So, why am I mentioning this on a blog that is supposed to be all Indians all the time? Because, the Albert Pujols deal has just maybe set a standard for deals for megastars who are destined for the Hall of Fame. As I understand it, in his deal with the Angels, Pujols has a 10 year contract to be a consultant for the Angels after his playing days are over. If we assume his playing days will be over right after or soon after his current contract ends, then he will be an Angels' consultant for some, most or all of his 5 post-retirement years before he is eligible to be elected into the Hall of Fame.
Now, remember, after the Wade Boggs fiasco, where Tampa Bay bought their first and only Hall of Famer with a lame contract clause at the end of Boggs' career, the HOF took over selecting whose hat an inductee will wear. That is, which team he will represent in the Hall of Fame. Now, if it is not possible for the HOF to decide because a player has played for multiple teams (see Robbie Alomar), the HOF will take into consideration what the player wants. So, Pujols will play 10 years for the Angels (he has a no-trade clause), 11 years for the Cardinals and maybe a year or two for someone else. Thus the decision will probably be Pujols'. To the dismay of the fans in St. Louis my guess is that he will pick the Angels who, at that time, he will STILL be working for.
Plus, Moreno bought ALL the Albert Pujols records with this contract. Albert currently has the following rankings in all-time categories:
HR: 445 (record: 762)
Hits: 2073 (4256)
RBIs: 1329 (2297)
Doubles: 455 (792)
Walks: 975 (2558)
Runs: 1329 (2295)
Now, he probably won't break all of these records but, in the AL, with the DH, he could come closer than he would in the NL, especially in HRs and RBIs. But records or not, you will have the 500, 600 and maybe 700 HR chase, the race to 3000 hits, the all-time RBI and runs scored chase, Yes, in the latter years of the contract the LA media will be saying what the NY media is now saying about ARod's contract: that it is an albatross around the Angels' collective necks.
But Arte Moreno bought four, possibly five good years of Albert Pujols production, all of his record chasing and a HOF plaque. That's a pretty good deal, at least to me.
Meanwhile, for the Cardinals, they have few, if any, guys on their roster who have anything more than an outside shot at the Hall of Fame. Yeah, Molina, maybe. Berkman, Holliday, Carpenter, Wainwright...not so much and, even if they do get it, it may not be as Cardinals. And the Indians, looking at their recent history, have even less of a chance of anyone and especially anyone on their current roster being HOF material.
It could be a while before the Cardinals put up another statue on the plaza outside their ballpark. For the Indians, it may be even longer, maybe never! If the Indians want to avoid this drought they need to do what I have said for years and now it may be too late. They need to make amends with Thome and Vizquel. I doubt Manny ever gets in but Thome and Vizquel should be HOFers and, if they do, looking at the teams they played for and the numbers that put up, the two of them should go in as Indians. Statues are important. The Indians may have lost one when they traded Robbie Alomar, they may have lost two more when they lost Thome and Vizquel and didn't bring them back to finish their careers and, as silly as it sounds, they may have lost one by not keeping Julio Franco to be their 1B/DH instead of letting him go to Asia and other ML teams to play in his later years. Had they found a way to keep him, he would have most likely gotten 3000 hits which, for a guy who played SS half of his career, would have probably been enough.
As far as the future, if the Indians develop a guy who is HOF caliber (see Sabathia) the odds are great that they won't keep him long enough to have the HOF or the player think he should go in as an Indian and that he will get a contract that will cement him going in wearing another hat. So, Rapid Robert may be lonely for a long time on that plaza.
The Indians have an opportunity with Thome and Vizquel to get more statues to keep Feller company. Why does that opportunity exist? It's here because we kept those players long enough for them to be considered Indians. We were winning AND we spent to keep them here and they wanted to stay because we spent and we were winning. We created a case that won't be there with CC. We created a perfect storm that may not happen again in Cleveland. We had HOF caliber guys for most of the prime of their careers AND those players ended up playing for multiple teams each for only a few years after leaving Cleveland. They were and will be remembered predominantly as Cleveland Indians. .
Let's hope the Indians didn't blow it with Thome and Vizquel because Pujols contract may have changed EVERYTHING in regards to who keeps the history with respect to a HOFer. Now, Wade Boggs situation notwithstanding, owners may see that, by sucking up the bad years at the end of a contract, they can buy a HOF plaque and some needed history and tradition at the same time they are getting a player. Now THAT is an investment in the future. The Indians may never, or at least not for a long time, have another HOF player as a result. Not unless the HOF and Thome and/or Vizquel see fit to go in as Indians if they are voted in by the HOF voters. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
Thursday, December 8, 2011
Rule 5 - Comments on Indians' losses
OK, so I was 1 for 2.
Major league phase: The Indians lost none and gained none. This draft is probably the most intriguing and puzzling thing in professional baseball. Why certain players (like left Josh Smoker and Jordan Danks) don't get selected is interesting.
While the major league phase is intriguing the minor league phases are usually just blah. However, every once in a while they are head scratching. Teams have 38 guys they can protect from the minor league portions of this draft. That, plus the 40 on the major league roster, mean that they have 78 players they can protect...and that is just the players who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft! It would seem that you could and should be able to protect every guy who even has a sniff of making the majors, right?
But every once in a while a guy gets picked in the minor league phase who is a head-scratcher. I don't know how often this happens as I am not deeply familiar with prospects from other teams but I remember in 2004 when the Indians left Keith Ramsey and Lee Gronkiewicz unprotected and they were taken. Gronk, who was a very successful minor league reliever, eventually made the majors with his drafting team, Toronto. Ramsey hasn't gotten there yet but was a very successful minor league starting pitcher when he was lost, and he was left-handed, to boot. So, I scratched my head when that happened.
Same today with Maty Popham. Really, after the trades and promotions we didn't have room for him on the AAA reserve list. Really? I have trouble believing that and Popham still has some helium in my opinion. He was not a huge prospect and would have come in at 57 on my top 100 list this winter. Still, not the kind of guy I like to lose in the MINOR league portion of the Rule 5.
Donnie Webb, on the other hand, is EXACTLY the kind of guy I would expect to lose. Organizational soldier who has some skills that some team might take a flyer on AND the kind of guy the Indians would leave off the AAA reserve list as he really has little major league upside.
I don't know enough about the other teams and whether any of their minor league phase losses were as good or better than Popham but I know Popham was a surprise to me...and probably an unnecessary loss. Not a big loss but, in Cleveland, any loss is a loss.
Major league phase: The Indians lost none and gained none. This draft is probably the most intriguing and puzzling thing in professional baseball. Why certain players (like left Josh Smoker and Jordan Danks) don't get selected is interesting.
While the major league phase is intriguing the minor league phases are usually just blah. However, every once in a while they are head scratching. Teams have 38 guys they can protect from the minor league portions of this draft. That, plus the 40 on the major league roster, mean that they have 78 players they can protect...and that is just the players who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft! It would seem that you could and should be able to protect every guy who even has a sniff of making the majors, right?
But every once in a while a guy gets picked in the minor league phase who is a head-scratcher. I don't know how often this happens as I am not deeply familiar with prospects from other teams but I remember in 2004 when the Indians left Keith Ramsey and Lee Gronkiewicz unprotected and they were taken. Gronk, who was a very successful minor league reliever, eventually made the majors with his drafting team, Toronto. Ramsey hasn't gotten there yet but was a very successful minor league starting pitcher when he was lost, and he was left-handed, to boot. So, I scratched my head when that happened.
Same today with Maty Popham. Really, after the trades and promotions we didn't have room for him on the AAA reserve list. Really? I have trouble believing that and Popham still has some helium in my opinion. He was not a huge prospect and would have come in at 57 on my top 100 list this winter. Still, not the kind of guy I like to lose in the MINOR league portion of the Rule 5.
Donnie Webb, on the other hand, is EXACTLY the kind of guy I would expect to lose. Organizational soldier who has some skills that some team might take a flyer on AND the kind of guy the Indians would leave off the AAA reserve list as he really has little major league upside.
I don't know enough about the other teams and whether any of their minor league phase losses were as good or better than Popham but I know Popham was a surprise to me...and probably an unnecessary loss. Not a big loss but, in Cleveland, any loss is a loss.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Rule 5 Preview - The day before total headscratching!
OK, now that we are hours away from the Rule 5 draft, let’s talk generalities and specifics. From years of following this draft here is what I think you should expect tomorrow:
1. There will be at least 2-3 guys selected that are complete surprises.
2. There will be a bunch of guys NOT selected that all the experts were convinced would be.
2. There will be a bunch of guys NOT selected that all the experts were convinced would be.
3. There will be at least one trade where a team drafts a guy and trades him
4. There will be at least one guy drafted from the Indians in the ML phase.
5. There will be at least one AAAA player-in-waiting drafted, maybe from the Indians
6. No ‘expert’ top 10 list of Rule 5 draft targets will end up with all those players drafted.
We should all be aware at this point that NO ONE is an ‘expert’ on who will be picked in the Rule 5 draft. Predicting what is going on in the heads of 3 organizations is almost impossible, let alone predicting what is going on in the heads of 30 organizations, all of whom have their own feelings on the Rule 5, the holes in their rosters and their own feelings on the strengths and weaknesses in their organization and outside to fill those holes.
So, no one really knows what is going to happen.
Knowing all this, let’s talk about the Indians who have a chance to be picked. This is an update of my previous article Link before the 40 man rosters were finalized.
Elvis Araujo (LHSP/LOOGY) – This guy is a top 10 prospect for the Indians.(currently #5 on my list) Why would a team not take a chance on this guy of this prospect magnitude and gamble on hm functioning as a 25th man LOOGY this year?
Chances of getting picked: 60%
Chances of sticking in the majors all year: 30%
Rob Bryson (RHRP)
The Rule 5 is all very often about ‘what have you done for me lately’ and, lately, Bryson has been hurt or performed badly.
Rob Bryson (RHRP)
The Rule 5 is all very often about ‘what have you done for me lately’ and, lately, Bryson has been hurt or performed badly.
Chances of getting picked: 20%
Chances of sticking: 0%
Matt Langwell (Right-handed pitcher)
While Langwell may look attractive on paper if you are an Indians’ fan, but he has no real outstanding tool that would separate him from 5 guys in each organization who might, with work, become ML middle relievers next year or the year after. He looks like a fringe ML reliever at best now and those are NOT the middle relievers who usually get picked.
Chances of getting picked: 30%
Chances of sticking: 30%
T.J. McFarland (LHSP/LOOGY)
Following up on the ‘what have you done lately’ theme, McFarland is attractive. I have not been able to find his minor league splits on lefty vs lefty but, if they are good, he has a good chance to be selected. With a fastball that tops out at 88-90 (despite published reports to the contrary), he would have to be stashed as a LOOGY/mop-up guy for year.
Chances of being picked: 50%
Chances of sticking: 30%
Alexander Perez (RHSP)
I see him as a possibility to be picked. A team could stash him on their 60-dayy DL all year and then hold him until next year. However, it depends on how he is pitching lately and teams haven’t had much of a chance to scout him so it would all depend on his health (records have to be provided before the draft on guys not protected).
Chances of getting picked: 50%
Chances of sticking: 20%
Roberto Perez (Catcher)
Historically, backup catchers grow on trees. Teams normally want a veteran presence at that position, even low level teams who have no realistic chance to compete. Plus, Perez has enough holes in his game (particularly batting average) that he will most likely not be picked. However, if a team picks him it is likely he will perform at the level they predict and so they are more likely to keep him.
Chances of getting picked: 20%
Chances of sticking: 40%
Bryan Price (RHRP)
See Matt Langwell
Bryce Stowell (RHRP)
Stowell is THE prototkype for a Rule 5 selection. Guys who throw 100 mph are always given multiple chances. If the medical records are good (the wild card that none of us are privy to) he is likely to get picked. However, his control issues, not command, but control, mind you, make it unlikely he could perform this spring at a level that teams would be comfortable giving him a bullpen spot this season.
Chances of getting picked: 60%
Chances of sticking: 5%
Paolo Espino (RHRP/SP)
Espino gets no respect in this organization as a short righthander without an overwhelming fastball… but that does not mean he gets no respect outside of this organization. His fall numbers don’t scream “PICK ME”. However, he has a realistic chance of getting picked due to the versatility and resiliency in bouncing between relief and starting this year and his one start in the AAA playoffs on HUGE rest, meaning he probably wasn’t at his sharpest.
Chances of getting picked: 30%
Chances of sticking: 50%
Trevor Crowe (OF)
Teams may actually take a chance on Crowe who has some present value and some, but not a lot, of projectability. Every year it seems that one team takes a chance on a guy like this, a guy who is one step away from being a AAAA player.
Chances of being picked: 30%
Chances of sticking: 50%
The Rest
Remember, the Indians have about 38 guys they can protect from the minor league portion of the draft. Guys like Eric Berger, Steven Wright, Tim Fedroff, Bo Greenwell, Kyle Landis, Argenis Martinez, Beau Mills, Carlos Moncrief, Marty Popham, Francisco Jimenez,and Karoxen Sanchez will CLEARLY be protected on the AAA reserve list. Also, these guys have enough warts in their games, are too far away from the majors or have skills that are so mundane in both quality and to what is looked for in positions normally drafted in the Rule 5, that they are not likely at all to get picked in the ML portion or, if picked, not likely at all to stick with the team that drafted them, meaning that they are likely to remain with the Indians. .
However, as big as the AAA reserve list is, you can’t or don’t necessarily want to protect all your Rule 5-eligible guys on it and so some will be exposed to the minor league portions where guys who are selected don’t have to be returned to the Indians. Here is a list, without comment, of guys who the Indians might lose in the Rule 5 minor league phase. Not that they WILL lose anyone but, if they did, it is likely to be one or more of these guys.
Adam Abraham (3B/1B):
Delvi Cid (OF)
Joey Mahalic (RHP
Doug Pickens (C)
Jeremie Tice (1B)
Donnie Webb (OF)
To end this article the same way I ended the previous one:
(a) This is the hardest draft to predict
(b) I am right more than most who predict this stuff but wrong A LOT more than I am right. That is, I, along with everyone else that does is, am the antithesis of an ‘expert’ on what will happen in this or any Rule 5 draft.
(b) I am right more than most who predict this stuff but wrong A LOT more than I am right. That is, I, along with everyone else that does is, am the antithesis of an ‘expert’ on what will happen in this or any Rule 5 draft.
Sunday, December 4, 2011
Why we need to keep Raffy Left and Sipp and other musings
OK, the winter meetings are about to start. Here are some more thoughts going into those meetings:
Save the Lefties!
There is talk the Indians will trade Rafael Perez or Tony Sipp for outfield help. Don't do it! There is a better than a 50/50 chance that our rotation will all be right-handed (Masterson, Carmona, Jimenez, Tomlin, Lowe). We are guaranteed, barring injury, from having 3 righties (Chris Perez, Vinnie Pestano and either Joe Smith or Chen Lee) in the bullpen. Given that our rotation is likely to be all righty our bullpen should be lefty heavy, maybe 3 deep (Perez, Sipp and Hagadone). The 7th guy should be the best of Judy, Putnnam
Teams will load up on left-handed hitters against our rotation and we need to keep them off balance. Having 3 lefties, especially if we stretch Hagadone out to be a long man, would really help. Even if Huff takes a rotation spot (I would LOVE to see him do a Cliff Lee impersonation this year!) we still need 3 lefties.
Off-season tea leaf reading
For those of you who follow the Indians in the off-season, this one, in particular, will tell whether this ship has anyone at the helm. The Indians are at a crucial place in their history.
Save the Lefties!
There is talk the Indians will trade Rafael Perez or Tony Sipp for outfield help. Don't do it! There is a better than a 50/50 chance that our rotation will all be right-handed (Masterson, Carmona, Jimenez, Tomlin, Lowe). We are guaranteed, barring injury, from having 3 righties (Chris Perez, Vinnie Pestano and either Joe Smith or Chen Lee) in the bullpen. Given that our rotation is likely to be all righty our bullpen should be lefty heavy, maybe 3 deep (Perez, Sipp and Hagadone). The 7th guy should be the best of Judy, Putnnam
Teams will load up on left-handed hitters against our rotation and we need to keep them off balance. Having 3 lefties, especially if we stretch Hagadone out to be a long man, would really help. Even if Huff takes a rotation spot (I would LOVE to see him do a Cliff Lee impersonation this year!) we still need 3 lefties.
Off-season tea leaf reading
For those of you who follow the Indians in the off-season, this one, in particular, will tell whether this ship has anyone at the helm. The Indians are at a crucial place in their history.
- They say they want to compete but are talking about having Jack Hannahan and Shelly Duncan being on this team and Michael Brantley starting. That makes little sense to me.
- They talk about wanting to use young players but, frankly, their best young players were traded last year for Ubaldo Jimenez. Lonnie Chisenhall was unimpressive at both AAA and the majors last year. He probably isn't ready.
- There is talk they are interested in Casey Blake. While I like Blake this is clearly bottom feeding to do an incremental upgrade over Jason Donald, Jack Hannahan and Shelly Duncan, as Blake is a guy who would, presumably, taking playing time from each of those. There is talk they are interested in Carolos Pena, Josh Willingham and Michael Cuddyer. All of those players are not difference makers. There is NO talk they are interested in Jose Reyes and Aramis Ramirez, the two free agents I think could help us win right now and at positions (3B and SS, with Cabrera moving to 2B and Kipnis to LF) that would help our offense and maybe even help our defense.. If you want to win now, you don't bottom feed. You go for it. Financial realities be damned. Trying to compete now with veterans AND be on a budget AND play young players to keep the cycle of winning going doesn't work. Shapiro tried it when he traded for Lawton, et al. It doesn't work.
- And, most disturbingly, they are talking about making a trade. You have already gutted most of your farm system with promotions, trades and the to-be-expected bad performances/injuries. I can see trading Joe Smith but there is no one else of value that is excess baggage on this team, not even the lefty relievers (see above). Plus, if you trade from strength you often weaken that position and make it into a weakness. In essence, you gain nothing.
Friday, December 2, 2011
Musings as we approach the winter meetings
Luis Valbuena for cash? Why? Yeah, he may have topped out but to get a guy like that on, essentially, a minor league deal, is a good move for Toronto and not a smart one for the Indians. Look, it can't hurt the Blue Jays but might help them and can't help the Indians but might hurt them. The definition of a bad move, albeit not a Brian Giles for Ricardo Rincon move.
Mitch Talbot to Korea? How can you blame the guy? He obviously felt like his opportunties in the US in the future were limited. He was a fringe 5th starter now and, at best, a solid 5th starter. Let him make his money. His loss, while it hurts the bottom of the depth pool, is easily offset by signing a minor league free agent, if needed.
Why do other teams gobble up good minor league free agents and we bottom feed for what seems to be the umpteenth year in a row. Yeah, we brought in Duncan and Hannahan. But that was catching lightning in a bottle. You can always throw stuff against the wall and hope it sticks. But let's get in there earlier and get prime minor league FAs instead of waiting until they are all gone. Even with the Rule 5 draft looming, I still think it is worth the gamble to sign these guys now.
Glad to see Sarbaugh back, Still, I say, fire Acta, make Alomar Jr. the manager and make Sarbaugh the bench coach.
What about the winter meetings?
The rotation doesn't need any help.
The bullpen always needs help but I think we gamble on the guys we have.
The lineup needs help and I have already suggested ways to fix that.
Michael Brantley is a 4th outfielder. Shelly Duncan is a 25th man. This team needs more hitting. My requested moves of the off-season: bring in Jose Reyes, move Asdrubal Cabrera to 2nd and Jason Kipnis to LF and bring in Aramis Ramirez to play 3rd would probably only cost the Indians $120 million with Reyes costing $85 over 6 years and Ramirez costing $35 over 3 years. It is a bold move but I think, if we truly believe in Ubaldo Jimenez, they are the right moves. Yeah, Reyes' body may be giving out (maybe switching him to 2B down the road might make sense) and Ramirez may be on the downside of his career. It's a gamble. But, damn, we bought into Jimenez and gave away the top two prospects in our system for him. We need to maximize that investment by putting the right people around him and not going cheap as we have essentially, along with the changes brought by the new CBA, screwed the future up..
Our lineup would be:
Jose Reyes SS
Jason Kipnis LF
Shin Soo Choo RF
Aramis Ramirez 3B
Asdrubal Cabrera 2B
Carlos Santana C
Travis Hafner DH
Matt LaPorta 1B
Grady Sizemore CF
Our bench would be:
Lou Marson C
Jason Donald IF
Jack Hannahan 3B/1B
Michael Brantley OF
You would have to trade Duncan (not a big deal) and send Chisenhall back to the minors (to work on the OF and 1B, to make him more valuable), but I could live with that.
If you buy into the window of opportunity being close to closing, how can you buy into going cheap this winter?
Mitch Talbot to Korea? How can you blame the guy? He obviously felt like his opportunties in the US in the future were limited. He was a fringe 5th starter now and, at best, a solid 5th starter. Let him make his money. His loss, while it hurts the bottom of the depth pool, is easily offset by signing a minor league free agent, if needed.
Why do other teams gobble up good minor league free agents and we bottom feed for what seems to be the umpteenth year in a row. Yeah, we brought in Duncan and Hannahan. But that was catching lightning in a bottle. You can always throw stuff against the wall and hope it sticks. But let's get in there earlier and get prime minor league FAs instead of waiting until they are all gone. Even with the Rule 5 draft looming, I still think it is worth the gamble to sign these guys now.
Glad to see Sarbaugh back, Still, I say, fire Acta, make Alomar Jr. the manager and make Sarbaugh the bench coach.
What about the winter meetings?
The rotation doesn't need any help.
The bullpen always needs help but I think we gamble on the guys we have.
The lineup needs help and I have already suggested ways to fix that.
Michael Brantley is a 4th outfielder. Shelly Duncan is a 25th man. This team needs more hitting. My requested moves of the off-season: bring in Jose Reyes, move Asdrubal Cabrera to 2nd and Jason Kipnis to LF and bring in Aramis Ramirez to play 3rd would probably only cost the Indians $120 million with Reyes costing $85 over 6 years and Ramirez costing $35 over 3 years. It is a bold move but I think, if we truly believe in Ubaldo Jimenez, they are the right moves. Yeah, Reyes' body may be giving out (maybe switching him to 2B down the road might make sense) and Ramirez may be on the downside of his career. It's a gamble. But, damn, we bought into Jimenez and gave away the top two prospects in our system for him. We need to maximize that investment by putting the right people around him and not going cheap as we have essentially, along with the changes brought by the new CBA, screwed the future up..
Our lineup would be:
Jose Reyes SS
Jason Kipnis LF
Shin Soo Choo RF
Aramis Ramirez 3B
Asdrubal Cabrera 2B
Carlos Santana C
Travis Hafner DH
Matt LaPorta 1B
Grady Sizemore CF
Our bench would be:
Lou Marson C
Jason Donald IF
Jack Hannahan 3B/1B
Michael Brantley OF
You would have to trade Duncan (not a big deal) and send Chisenhall back to the minors (to work on the OF and 1B, to make him more valuable), but I could live with that.
If you buy into the window of opportunity being close to closing, how can you buy into going cheap this winter?
Saturday, November 26, 2011
Post 2011 Indians' Top 55 prospects
It's really early in the post-season. Who knows what is going to happen in the Rule 5 draft, both coming and going. And who knows what is going to happen in terms of trades. But, to level set right now, here is my take on the Indians' top prospects. Later I will expand this and tweak it to give my thoughts on the top 100 prospects.
1. Francisco Lindor – SS
2. Nick Hagadone – LHRP
3. Tony Wolters – SS
4. Felix Sterling – RHP
5. Elvis Araujo – LHP
6. Dorssys Paulino - SS
7. Chun Chen – C
8. Chen Lee – RHRP
9. Alexander Perez – LHP
10. Hector Rondon – RHP
11. Robbie Aviles – RHSP
12. LeVon Washington – OF
13. Scott Barnes – LHSP
14. Zach McAllister – RHSP
15. Dillon Howard – RHP
16. Josh Judy – RHRP
17. Zach Putnam – RHRP
18. Cord Phelps – Utility
19. Juan Diaz – SS
20. Austin Adams - RHSP
21. Ronny Rodriguez – SS
22. Luigi Rodriguez OF
23. Jesus Aguilar – 1B
24. Alex Lavisky – C
25. Danny Salazar – RHSP
26. Bryson Myles – OF
27. Roberto Perez – C
28. Jake Lowery – C
29. Robel Garcia – 3B/OF
30. Jake Sisco – RHSP
31. Kelvin De La Cruz – LHSP
32. Paulo Espino – RHSP
33. T.J. McFarland – LHSP
34. Matt Packer – LHSP
35. Alex Monsalve – C
36. Kyle Blair – RHSP
37. Bryce Stowell – RHRP
38. Tyler Sturdevant – RHRP
39. Tyler Holt – OF
40. Giovanny Urshela – 3B
41. Beau Mills – 1B
42. Cory Burns – RHRP
43. Clayton Cook – RHSP
44. T.J. House – LHSP
45. Matt Langwell – RHRP
46. Thomas Neal – OF
47. Anthony Salander - OF
48. Cole Cook – RHSP
49. Carlos Moncrief – OF
50. Enosil Tejada – RHRP
51. Jordan Smith – 3B/OF
52. Nick Weglarz – OF
53. Jose Ramirez – SS
54. Jorge Martinez – 2B
55. Corey Kluber – RHSP
19. Juan Diaz – SS
20. Austin Adams - RHSP
21. Ronny Rodriguez – SS
22. Luigi Rodriguez OF
23. Jesus Aguilar – 1B
24. Alex Lavisky – C
25. Danny Salazar – RHSP
26. Bryson Myles – OF
27. Roberto Perez – C
28. Jake Lowery – C
29. Robel Garcia – 3B/OF
30. Jake Sisco – RHSP
31. Kelvin De La Cruz – LHSP
32. Paulo Espino – RHSP
33. T.J. McFarland – LHSP
34. Matt Packer – LHSP
35. Alex Monsalve – C
36. Kyle Blair – RHSP
37. Bryce Stowell – RHRP
38. Tyler Sturdevant – RHRP
39. Tyler Holt – OF
40. Giovanny Urshela – 3B
41. Beau Mills – 1B
42. Cory Burns – RHRP
43. Clayton Cook – RHSP
44. T.J. House – LHSP
45. Matt Langwell – RHRP
46. Thomas Neal – OF
47. Anthony Salander - OF
48. Cole Cook – RHSP
49. Carlos Moncrief – OF
50. Enosil Tejada – RHRP
51. Jordan Smith – 3B/OF
52. Nick Weglarz – OF
53. Jose Ramirez – SS
54. Jorge Martinez – 2B
55. Corey Kluber – RHSP
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Unraveling the new CBA: The draft and FA compensation
OK. We have a new collective bargaining agreement. So what does it all mean for the Cleveland Indians? We'll start today with the biggest parts that impact the Indians: Draft and FA compensation.
Disclaimer: I haven't read it. I am not a lawyer. I have just read interpretations of what it means. So, here goes:
General: Small market teams like Pittsburgh, Washington, Tampa Bay and Kansas City have decided that the most efficient way to build a franchise is to include investing heavily in the draft. This includes leveraging extra picks and taking flyers on late round, high bonus demand guys who have fallen. The draft is the single way left in baseball to obtain talent that is without competition from other teams. You draft a guy and if he wants to sign he has to sign with you or wait another year (or 3) to be drafted. Some of the new provisions really hurt the small market teams like the Indians. Let's talk specifics:
What they did:
(a) Less free agents compensated: Actually, this helps the Indians. They usually don't have high Type A free agents and when they do they have recently traded them before free agency (something that will probably be done more often now) and now will be free to sign the lower Type A and Type B guys AND won't have their draft picks diluted by a bloated supplemental first round. The only negative is that the Indians may get a little less value for their FAs-to-be as the receiving team can't get a draft pick for them. Still, this helps the Indians as many times it is the large market teams who rent players and then get draft picks for them, further bloating and slanting the draft towards large market teams.
(b) Offering an average of the top 125 salaries: Doesn't hurt the Indians as it is only the average. They have historically offered just enough to not be able to sign guys like Thome, Ramirez, etc. but that was WELL above the average.
(c) Lottery picks for 10 worst teams: If those picks were at the beginning of the first round, great. But they aren't. They are essentially supplemental first round picks. This won't help the Indians much IF they get one, which is not guaranteed...and they have to finish with such a bad record to get it that it isn't worth it.
(d) Draft spending cap: This REALLY hurts the Indians big time. Their 2012 draft would have been OK because Lindor and Howard signed for reasonable amounts. However, flyer picks after that, like they did in the 2011 draft, would be almost impossible to do. So you are looking at the 2012 draft (not very good for us) compared to the 2011 draft (best, on paper, in baseball at the time of the draft) in the future. That is not good news.
(e) No major league deals. This is a big plus for the Indians. The major league deal Jeremy Guthrie got KILLED the Indians. He only became a decent ML pitcher after he left the Indians after he was out of options. As agents will now have to focus in other areas, this won't be a discussion point any more.
(f) Draft signing deadline: This helps the Indians as it gets players moving through their system quicker. Yes, it helps all teams but the small market teams build from the bottom up. Anything that helps that process makes them more competitive.
What should they have done:
Give each team that has one of the 15 worst records (IF they have a losing record) an additional pick at the end of each of the first two rounds and each of the 10 worst records an additonal pick in each of the first 3 rounds and each of the 5 worst records an extra pick at the end of the first 5 rounds. This gives the team with the worst record in baseball 10 picks in the first 5 rounds, the team with the 6th worst record in baseball 8 picks in the first 5 rounds and the team with the 11th worst record 7 picks in the first 5 rounds, and that is BEFORE any compensation picks they get. This slants the draft heavily towards teams who can't and shouldn't compete for expensive free agents and makes them spend on the draft. They obviously get cap room based on their extra picks as is present in the new CBA. Also, there should be no draft cap for teams with the 10 worst records in baseball and an extended cap for teams with the 15 worst records.
Remove, entirely, the protection of first round picks. The worst teams in baseball shouldn't be signing the best free agents and they usually don't.
You can only trade draft picks IF you had a winning record the previous season and you can only trade draft picks for the next draft, not years down the road.
The signing deadline, free agent compensation, no major league contracts all are fine. But it is the draft advantage that should have been leveraged to the hilt for small market teams. This didn't happen and, for the Cleveland Indians, that is a real killer.
Disclaimer: I haven't read it. I am not a lawyer. I have just read interpretations of what it means. So, here goes:
General: Small market teams like Pittsburgh, Washington, Tampa Bay and Kansas City have decided that the most efficient way to build a franchise is to include investing heavily in the draft. This includes leveraging extra picks and taking flyers on late round, high bonus demand guys who have fallen. The draft is the single way left in baseball to obtain talent that is without competition from other teams. You draft a guy and if he wants to sign he has to sign with you or wait another year (or 3) to be drafted. Some of the new provisions really hurt the small market teams like the Indians. Let's talk specifics:
What they did:
(a) Less free agents compensated: Actually, this helps the Indians. They usually don't have high Type A free agents and when they do they have recently traded them before free agency (something that will probably be done more often now) and now will be free to sign the lower Type A and Type B guys AND won't have their draft picks diluted by a bloated supplemental first round. The only negative is that the Indians may get a little less value for their FAs-to-be as the receiving team can't get a draft pick for them. Still, this helps the Indians as many times it is the large market teams who rent players and then get draft picks for them, further bloating and slanting the draft towards large market teams.
(b) Offering an average of the top 125 salaries: Doesn't hurt the Indians as it is only the average. They have historically offered just enough to not be able to sign guys like Thome, Ramirez, etc. but that was WELL above the average.
(c) Lottery picks for 10 worst teams: If those picks were at the beginning of the first round, great. But they aren't. They are essentially supplemental first round picks. This won't help the Indians much IF they get one, which is not guaranteed...and they have to finish with such a bad record to get it that it isn't worth it.
(d) Draft spending cap: This REALLY hurts the Indians big time. Their 2012 draft would have been OK because Lindor and Howard signed for reasonable amounts. However, flyer picks after that, like they did in the 2011 draft, would be almost impossible to do. So you are looking at the 2012 draft (not very good for us) compared to the 2011 draft (best, on paper, in baseball at the time of the draft) in the future. That is not good news.
(e) No major league deals. This is a big plus for the Indians. The major league deal Jeremy Guthrie got KILLED the Indians. He only became a decent ML pitcher after he left the Indians after he was out of options. As agents will now have to focus in other areas, this won't be a discussion point any more.
(f) Draft signing deadline: This helps the Indians as it gets players moving through their system quicker. Yes, it helps all teams but the small market teams build from the bottom up. Anything that helps that process makes them more competitive.
What should they have done:
Give each team that has one of the 15 worst records (IF they have a losing record) an additional pick at the end of each of the first two rounds and each of the 10 worst records an additonal pick in each of the first 3 rounds and each of the 5 worst records an extra pick at the end of the first 5 rounds. This gives the team with the worst record in baseball 10 picks in the first 5 rounds, the team with the 6th worst record in baseball 8 picks in the first 5 rounds and the team with the 11th worst record 7 picks in the first 5 rounds, and that is BEFORE any compensation picks they get. This slants the draft heavily towards teams who can't and shouldn't compete for expensive free agents and makes them spend on the draft. They obviously get cap room based on their extra picks as is present in the new CBA. Also, there should be no draft cap for teams with the 10 worst records in baseball and an extended cap for teams with the 15 worst records.
Remove, entirely, the protection of first round picks. The worst teams in baseball shouldn't be signing the best free agents and they usually don't.
You can only trade draft picks IF you had a winning record the previous season and you can only trade draft picks for the next draft, not years down the road.
The signing deadline, free agent compensation, no major league contracts all are fine. But it is the draft advantage that should have been leveraged to the hilt for small market teams. This didn't happen and, for the Cleveland Indians, that is a real killer.
Friday, November 18, 2011
The number was right, the players were, well, different
I predicted three players would be added. But two of the three were different.
Juan Diaz - As a SS, he does fit one of the types of players picked in Rule 5 drafts: middle infielders. He is a potential breakout candidate next year but protecting him seems one year too premature. Neither his offense or defense is polished enough for him to stick next year, even as a utility infielder. Consider Josh Rodriguez last year compared to Diaz this year. Rodriguez couldn't stick and Diaz is not nearly as refined a player as Rodriguez was at the same point last year.
Danny Salazar - This one is the most puzzling one: a low A righty without a great fastball coming off TJ surgery. The kid has potential but he is so far away from the majors that NO team would have taken him. They say the last thing to come back after TJ surgery is command. Why would you protect this guy who, even if his stuff played up next spring, he never would have been competent to pitch at the big league level.
So, all in all, not a very good set of players added, except for Barnes, who was a no-brainer.
The big screwup, I think, is Araujo. He will almost certainly be one of the Indians' top 10 prospects. Teams would be crazy not to risk the $50,000 that he might stick as a lefty specialist or a long man next year. How many times can you increase your talent pool with a top 10 prospect from another organization and it cost you no players and only $50,000. Stupid move by the Indians not to protect him. Very stupid.
TJ McFarland. He is a good pitcher but does not project to be the type of guy who gets picked in the Rule 5. He throws about 88 mph and I don't think he is especially tough on lefties. Not protecting him makes sense.
But protecting Salazar instead of Araujo. Just plain stupid.
Protecting Salazar instead of Araujo. Just plain stupid.
Protecting Diaz insteas of McFarland. Understandable and I might have done it.
Juan Diaz - As a SS, he does fit one of the types of players picked in Rule 5 drafts: middle infielders. He is a potential breakout candidate next year but protecting him seems one year too premature. Neither his offense or defense is polished enough for him to stick next year, even as a utility infielder. Consider Josh Rodriguez last year compared to Diaz this year. Rodriguez couldn't stick and Diaz is not nearly as refined a player as Rodriguez was at the same point last year.
Danny Salazar - This one is the most puzzling one: a low A righty without a great fastball coming off TJ surgery. The kid has potential but he is so far away from the majors that NO team would have taken him. They say the last thing to come back after TJ surgery is command. Why would you protect this guy who, even if his stuff played up next spring, he never would have been competent to pitch at the big league level.
So, all in all, not a very good set of players added, except for Barnes, who was a no-brainer.
The big screwup, I think, is Araujo. He will almost certainly be one of the Indians' top 10 prospects. Teams would be crazy not to risk the $50,000 that he might stick as a lefty specialist or a long man next year. How many times can you increase your talent pool with a top 10 prospect from another organization and it cost you no players and only $50,000. Stupid move by the Indians not to protect him. Very stupid.
TJ McFarland. He is a good pitcher but does not project to be the type of guy who gets picked in the Rule 5. He throws about 88 mph and I don't think he is especially tough on lefties. Not protecting him makes sense.
But protecting Salazar instead of Araujo. Just plain stupid.
Protecting Salazar instead of Araujo. Just plain stupid.
Protecting Diaz insteas of McFarland. Understandable and I might have done it.
40-man roster day. Who will be added? Will anyone be DFA'd?
Today teams have to set their 40 man roster AND their minor league reserve lists in preparation for December's Rule 5 draft. Remember, you can't add anyone to your roster except through trades, until after the Rule 5 draft if you don't do so by today. At the same time, if you want to draft someone in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft, you have to have an open spot on your roster although teams have DFA'd players as late as the morning of the draft to clear a spot.
So, what are the Indians going to do? I have posted earlier on the Rule 5 draft but that was only IF guys were not placed on the roster by today.
The Indians currently have 38 guys on their roster. They have spots for adding two guys without having to DFA, outright or trade anyone.
Who might be reasonable to protect?
Looking through the list of guys eligible for the Rule 5 (if not rostered) here are the names I come up with who are candidates to be added to the roster:
Hector Ambriz
Elvis Araujo
Scott Barnes
Rob Bryson
Paolo Espino
TJ McFarland
Beau Mills
Carlos Moncrief
Roberto Perez
Bryce Stowell
Anyone sent to the lifeboats to clear space?
Here is a list of guys who MIGHT be DFA'd tor outrighted oday (but probably not for most of them as they are, at least, roster filler for a later trade or free agent signing or two).
Shelley Duncan
Jack Hannahan
Korey Kluber
Thomas Neal
Cord Phelps
Luis Valbuena
Nick Weglarz
Predictions:
The Indians will add both Scott Barnes and Elvis Araujo to their roster. The Indians will add a 3rd player, TJ McFarland, by outrighting Corey Kluber to the minors.
Reasoning: You can't expose your top left-handed pitching prospect and one of your top 10 (maybe top 5) overall prospects to the Rule 5 draft just because he is still in the low minors. Remember that was tried with Joakim Soria and look how that turned out! Unfortunately, even though he may be exposed to being DFA'd before he gets to the majors as he may use up all your options with him, you have to take this gamble.
Barnes is kind of a no-brainer who I think may have gotten a shot last September if he hadn't injured his knee. He is a better pitching prospect, in my opnion, than Corey Kluber.
TJ McFarland is, to me, a better pitching prospect than Kluber. While I would like to DFA Valbuena, I think they still keep Kluber's rights if they DFA him. I think Valbuena may become a FA if he is DFA'd and not traded and clears waivers.
Why not roster the other guys who are eligible?
Roberto Perez - Too many questions about his bat. AFL helped this year but not enough, IMHO
Bryce Stowell - Yes he has thrown 100 mph. But last year was so bad for him it is worth the risk not to protect him
Rob Bryson: - Could be really painful if lost this guy (CC trade) and he becomes something. Coming off an injury so maybe teams will shy away. Worth the risk
Paolo Espino - The typical short righthander, he gets no respect and so is worth the gamble of not protecting him. The most likely of the non-protected list to see time in the majors next year, however.
Beau Mills does not fit the Rule 5 draftee profile and so is a good gambles NOT to protect. Hector Ambriz may be selected in the Rule 5 but can't be put on the 40 man as he is too far down the RH reliever depth chart to warrant it.
Carlos Moncrief has an iintriguing combination of speed, power and throwing arm strength. He is so far down in the minors, however, and didn't hit much at low A, he is probably safe.
So, what are the Indians going to do? I have posted earlier on the Rule 5 draft but that was only IF guys were not placed on the roster by today.
The Indians currently have 38 guys on their roster. They have spots for adding two guys without having to DFA, outright or trade anyone.
Who might be reasonable to protect?
Looking through the list of guys eligible for the Rule 5 (if not rostered) here are the names I come up with who are candidates to be added to the roster:
Hector Ambriz
Elvis Araujo
Scott Barnes
Rob Bryson
Paolo Espino
TJ McFarland
Beau Mills
Carlos Moncrief
Roberto Perez
Bryce Stowell
Anyone sent to the lifeboats to clear space?
Here is a list of guys who MIGHT be DFA'd tor outrighted oday (but probably not for most of them as they are, at least, roster filler for a later trade or free agent signing or two).
Shelley Duncan
Jack Hannahan
Korey Kluber
Thomas Neal
Cord Phelps
Luis Valbuena
Nick Weglarz
Predictions:
The Indians will add both Scott Barnes and Elvis Araujo to their roster. The Indians will add a 3rd player, TJ McFarland, by outrighting Corey Kluber to the minors.
Reasoning: You can't expose your top left-handed pitching prospect and one of your top 10 (maybe top 5) overall prospects to the Rule 5 draft just because he is still in the low minors. Remember that was tried with Joakim Soria and look how that turned out! Unfortunately, even though he may be exposed to being DFA'd before he gets to the majors as he may use up all your options with him, you have to take this gamble.
Barnes is kind of a no-brainer who I think may have gotten a shot last September if he hadn't injured his knee. He is a better pitching prospect, in my opnion, than Corey Kluber.
TJ McFarland is, to me, a better pitching prospect than Kluber. While I would like to DFA Valbuena, I think they still keep Kluber's rights if they DFA him. I think Valbuena may become a FA if he is DFA'd and not traded and clears waivers.
Why not roster the other guys who are eligible?
Roberto Perez - Too many questions about his bat. AFL helped this year but not enough, IMHO
Bryce Stowell - Yes he has thrown 100 mph. But last year was so bad for him it is worth the risk not to protect him
Rob Bryson: - Could be really painful if lost this guy (CC trade) and he becomes something. Coming off an injury so maybe teams will shy away. Worth the risk
Paolo Espino - The typical short righthander, he gets no respect and so is worth the gamble of not protecting him. The most likely of the non-protected list to see time in the majors next year, however.
Beau Mills does not fit the Rule 5 draftee profile and so is a good gambles NOT to protect. Hector Ambriz may be selected in the Rule 5 but can't be put on the 40 man as he is too far down the RH reliever depth chart to warrant it.
Carlos Moncrief has an iintriguing combination of speed, power and throwing arm strength. He is so far down in the minors, however, and didn't hit much at low A, he is probably safe.
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Random thought 11/13
If the Cardinals, who have a great and knowledgeable organization, can hire Mike Matheny to manage a defending world champion when he has no previous managing experience:
1. Why are we not offering the job to Sandy Alomar Jr.?
2. Why is Mike Sarbaugh being dissed for a ML bench coach job?
3. Why do we still have Manny Acta and his .417 career winning pct. as a big league manager?
As I pointed out before, take out the 30-15 start and the guy is managing at a 69-93 clip over the past two seasons. He is not a good manager.
Get rid of Acta and hire Alomar Jr. and promote Sarbaugh now.
I want to stop right now the bleeding of good field staff and FO people leaving this organization.
1. Why are we not offering the job to Sandy Alomar Jr.?
2. Why is Mike Sarbaugh being dissed for a ML bench coach job?
3. Why do we still have Manny Acta and his .417 career winning pct. as a big league manager?
As I pointed out before, take out the 30-15 start and the guy is managing at a 69-93 clip over the past two seasons. He is not a good manager.
Get rid of Acta and hire Alomar Jr. and promote Sarbaugh now.
I want to stop right now the bleeding of good field staff and FO people leaving this organization.
Friday, November 11, 2011
Trades....Do 'em or don't do 'em
Off-season trading for a team like the Indians is difficult. You try to find a team to trade with has excess of what you need and you have excess of what they need.
Problem is, the Indians have very little excess of anything. So, unless you think Joe Smith or Matt LaPorta worth a quality major leaguer, unless you think you can live without one of Tony Sipp or Rafael Perez or unless you think you want to give up prospects, you don't trade right now.
Yes, if you are fortunate (and the Indians SHOULD be looking) you can find a good fit for a trade that won't weaken either your 2012 major league team OR your farm system (See KC-SF trade last week). And, face it, right now, our farm system is already so weak I wouldn't want to trade ANY prospect for a rental.
So, unless all the stars align you wait to make a trade in spring training. Teams with high salaried players who have a prospect they find is suddenly ready are more likely to dump the high-salaried player if the team will take on salary. The return won't have to be as much as it is now.
So, Indians, hold tight on trading, see what the FA market and non-tender market bring and then, if you are still a little short of a full deck, look to make a trade at the middle or end of spring training.
Don't panic!
Problem is, the Indians have very little excess of anything. So, unless you think Joe Smith or Matt LaPorta worth a quality major leaguer, unless you think you can live without one of Tony Sipp or Rafael Perez or unless you think you want to give up prospects, you don't trade right now.
Yes, if you are fortunate (and the Indians SHOULD be looking) you can find a good fit for a trade that won't weaken either your 2012 major league team OR your farm system (See KC-SF trade last week). And, face it, right now, our farm system is already so weak I wouldn't want to trade ANY prospect for a rental.
So, unless all the stars align you wait to make a trade in spring training. Teams with high salaried players who have a prospect they find is suddenly ready are more likely to dump the high-salaried player if the team will take on salary. The return won't have to be as much as it is now.
So, Indians, hold tight on trading, see what the FA market and non-tender market bring and then, if you are still a little short of a full deck, look to make a trade at the middle or end of spring training.
Don't panic!
Musings on 11-11-11
Christmas Carroll…that is a turkey of an idea
37 year old Jamey Carroll is on the verge of signing a multiyear deal with some team. The teams who he might be signing with continue to say "It's not me!". The Indians have been mentioned. Three phrases that should never appear in the same sentence are Jamey Carroll, multiyear deal and Cleveland Indians…except, of course, if they accompanied by DON’T DO IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.
Besides having our own internal options (Jason Donald, who we paid a pretty penny for, if you remember), Carroll is coming off a career year and is only an average defender. Thus, we will pay more than he is worth and be saddled with an bloated contract that will not make trading him easier at the deadline.
Yes, filling second base and moving Kipnis back to LF which I proposed a couple of weeks ago helps with our infield defense, something I had already said should be a priority this winter, given that we just added ground ball machine Derek Lowe to a groundball-heavy rotation.
But Jamey Carroll. No way.
Now, Jose Reyes to SS and Asdrubal Cabrera to 2B? That helps us out even though I am not sure Reyes is a better SS than Cabrera. However, certainly Reyes/Cabrera is better than Cabrera/Kipnis for this pitching staff. So, shell out the money to Reyes and Aramis Ramrez, put Kipnis (LF, starter) and Chisenhall (LF/RF, reserve this year or to AAA for outfield training if you want to conserve his service time) in the OF. Remember, when Chisenhall was drafted I suggested putting him in RF. That becomes more relevant as Choo hits free agency.
Minor league free agents to sign
Wow, we signed 33 year old catcher Michael Hernandez. That is the icing on the cake of minor league signings! JK.
Here’s a quick look at the pitchers (we obviously wouldn’t sign all of them, just 1-3 per group) I think we should consider signing. The guys in bold are my personal favorites
LHP – Doug Arguello, Brian Burres, Ryan Feierabend (a Cleveland native), Chuck James, Wil Ledezma, Wil Startup, Jake Stevens, Taylor Tankersley, Clay Zavada,
RHP – James Avery, Jimmy Barthmeier, Billy Buckner, David Bush, Matt Daley, Sam DeDuno, Todd Doolittle, Brandon Erbe, Sean Gallagher, Wil Inman, Garret Mock, Luis Perdomo, Mitch Talbot, PJ Walters,
More about the position players later.
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Time for a change!
OK, the Indians have lost guys like Torey Lovullo, John Farrell and others.
Now, Sandy Alomar Jr. is being courted and Mike Sarbaugh is being dissed just like Lovullo was.
For me, it's time for a change.
Remember that Manny Acta's claim to fame as a big league manager was skippering a team that finished 2 games under .500. And that was far and away his best result as a manager.
Dump Acta, hire Alomar Jr. to manage and bring in Sarbaugh as the bench coach. It is a bold move, one that might shake the foundation of the Indians, but, in my opinion, it is the right move.
You can't just keep Acta because he was more close to mediocre than he had been in previous years. Aside from the 30-15 start, his team was 50-67 or, stretched out over 162 games that would be 69-93, IDENTICAL to his previous season in Cleveland. and very similar to his career winning pct. of .417.
It's time for a bold move, it's time to keep the FO talent in the organization and it's time for a change and an action to show the rest of the organization and the fans that mediocrity won't be tolerated and that success (see Sarbaugh) will be rewarded by promotion.
Alomar Jr. for manager, Sarbaugh for bench coach, Manny Acta for someone else.
Now, Sandy Alomar Jr. is being courted and Mike Sarbaugh is being dissed just like Lovullo was.
For me, it's time for a change.
Remember that Manny Acta's claim to fame as a big league manager was skippering a team that finished 2 games under .500. And that was far and away his best result as a manager.
Dump Acta, hire Alomar Jr. to manage and bring in Sarbaugh as the bench coach. It is a bold move, one that might shake the foundation of the Indians, but, in my opinion, it is the right move.
You can't just keep Acta because he was more close to mediocre than he had been in previous years. Aside from the 30-15 start, his team was 50-67 or, stretched out over 162 games that would be 69-93, IDENTICAL to his previous season in Cleveland. and very similar to his career winning pct. of .417.
It's time for a bold move, it's time to keep the FO talent in the organization and it's time for a change and an action to show the rest of the organization and the fans that mediocrity won't be tolerated and that success (see Sarbaugh) will be rewarded by promotion.
Alomar Jr. for manager, Sarbaugh for bench coach, Manny Acta for someone else.
Friday, November 4, 2011
And now, a brief interlude...the Rule 5 draft - Who the Indians might lose
OK, time off from the free agent and trade stuff (I will be back to that this weekend).
Right now, though, let's look at who the Indians have who are Rule 5 eligible.
Remember, any guy under a team's control for 2012 who is not on the major league roster and who fits MLB's criteria for the Rule 5 draft : fourth Rule 5 draft after signing for players 19 and over at the time of signing and fifth Rule 5 drafts after signing for players signed when they are 18 or younger. The only exception is guys signed AFTER the minor league season is over (Sept. 1st) who don't play that year. Their Rule 5 clock starts the next season.
So, with that, here is my list of Indians players and who might or is unlikely to be picked in the Rule 5 major league or minor league portions of the draft. These players can be protected from the Rule 5 draft if they are placed on the 40 man roster by November 18th. On that date teams also place players on AAA, AA and A level "reserve lists". Those on the AAA reserve list (which can be up to 38 players) can only be selected in the ML portion of the Rule 5 draft.
If the following minor leaguers are left off the 40 man roster they are:
I want to end by saying
(a) This is the hardest draft to predict
(b) I am right more than most who predict this stuff but wrong A LOT more than I am right.
Right now, though, let's look at who the Indians have who are Rule 5 eligible.
Remember, any guy under a team's control for 2012 who is not on the major league roster and who fits MLB's criteria for the Rule 5 draft : fourth Rule 5 draft after signing for players 19 and over at the time of signing and fifth Rule 5 drafts after signing for players signed when they are 18 or younger. The only exception is guys signed AFTER the minor league season is over (Sept. 1st) who don't play that year. Their Rule 5 clock starts the next season.
So, with that, here is my list of Indians players and who might or is unlikely to be picked in the Rule 5 major league or minor league portions of the draft. These players can be protected from the Rule 5 draft if they are placed on the 40 man roster by November 18th. On that date teams also place players on AAA, AA and A level "reserve lists". Those on the AAA reserve list (which can be up to 38 players) can only be selected in the ML portion of the Rule 5 draft.
If the following minor leaguers are left off the 40 man roster they are:
Decent Possibility To Be Picked, Decent Chance to Stick with Drafting Team
Scott Barnes
Alexander Perez
Paulo Espino
Alexander Perez
Paulo Espino
Possibility To Be Picked, Possibility to Stick
Elvis Arauuo
Rob Bryson
Roberto Perez
Juan Diaz
TJ McFarland
Elvis Arauuo
Rob Bryson
Roberto Perez
Juan Diaz
TJ McFarland
Possibility To Be Picked, Unlikely to Stick
Hector Ambriz
Eric Berger
Matt Langwell
Danny Salazar
Bryce Stowell
Carlos Moncrief
Hector Ambriz
Eric Berger
Matt Langwell
Danny Salazar
Bryce Stowell
Carlos Moncrief
Not Placed on ML roster But Protected on AAA Reserve List, Unlikely to be Picked
Kyle Landis
Marty Popham
Adam Miller (If he re-signs and before the Rule 5 draft in December)
Argenis Martinez
Beau Mills
Karexon Sanchez
Tim Fedroff
Bo Greenwell
Chad Huffman
Jerad Head (see Adam Miller)
Possibility to Be Picked in Minor League Phases
Adam Abraham
Juan Apodaca
Kyle Landis
Marty Popham
Adam Miller (If he re-signs and before the Rule 5 draft in December)
Argenis Martinez
Beau Mills
Karexon Sanchez
Tim Fedroff
Bo Greenwell
Chad Huffman
Jerad Head (see Adam Miller)
Possibility to Be Picked in Minor League Phases
Adam Abraham
Juan Apodaca
Doug Pickens
Joey Mahalic
Steven Wright
Jeremie Tice
Delvi Cid
Ben Copeland
John Drennen
Donnie Webb
Jeremie Tice
Delvi Cid
Ben Copeland
John Drennen
Donnie Webb
Oswel Munoz (if we even still have him)
(a) This is the hardest draft to predict
(b) I am right more than most who predict this stuff but wrong A LOT more than I am right.
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
Off-season moves: Rating the Compensation Free Agents
Ok, the Indians have holes to fill:
1. A first baseman with power would be nice.
2. A left fielder with power would be nice.
3. Bullpen help is always welcome.
Let's start by looking at the available free ageints. We will start with the free agents who might require compensation.
Josh Willingham OF - It seems a lot of the internet want the Indians to sign this guy. He hit .246 with 29 HR and 98 RBI. He is a LFer who DHed 40 times. He is a career .262 hitter who has a career high in HR last year and will be 33 when the season starts and his OPS was only .810. Unless he comes cheap ($6 million or less and willing to accept only a 2-year deal) my vote is no. I understand he is the best of the lot available but I don't like the spike in HRs in his walk year.
David DeJesus RF - Not enough HRs, not enough RBI and not healthy enough.
Magglio Ordonez RF - Only if he is healthy would I even consider it and, then, only on a cheap, incentive-laden, one year deal.
Carlos Pena 1B - No BA but a lot of walks, HR and sufficient RBIs to bat him somewhere in the middle of the order. His problem is he hits LH.
Michael Cuddyer OF - Like Willingham, a part-time DH and 33 next season, he is another popular internet favorite to be signed by the Indians. He has power but his RBI total is low. Again, if the price is right he is an improvement in the offense but probably hurts the defense.
Carlos Beltran OF - Again, if healthy and cheap, maybe worth a look. Probably both won't be true.
Jason Kubel OF - Not healthy, a part-time DH and hits left-handed. Only a last ditch guy for me
Derek Lee 1B - I don't see this guy as an upgrade over the 2012 version of Matt LaPorta.
Ryan Ludwick OF - The last choice in the FA OF sweepstakes, to me. He is back to the mediocrity he had when he played for the Indians that one year.
Now, for the way out there guys:
Jose Reyes SS - Sign this guy to hit leadoff, move ACab to 2B and Kipnis to LF. He is my prime target as I think he will be a cut above Phillips and Ramirez, but more expensive, too. I think this may help our IF defense and bringing in Lowe, our IF defense needs to be better. We can't give the other team 4 outs an inning with our starting pitchers. Reyes/Cabrera is better than Cabrera/Kipnis defensively.
Brandon Phillips 2B - Move Kipnis to LF
Aramis Ramirez 3B - Move Chisenhall to LF. He is the guy I target if the Reyes thing is too expensive. Look, Chisenhall is NOT a sure thing.
Not only will these three guys be expensive, but they will require position switches by other guys. Still, any of them would make this team better.
Then we have:
Prince Fielder - Too expensive and, even if we wanted to take the plunge, he hits left-handed meaning while he helps this team immensely, he causes us to dump LaPorta and have an even more LH hitting lineup. Good pickup but not worth the price given the above..
Albert Pujols - Everyone's #1. He makes our lineup...and breaks our bank...as if he would come to Cleveland anyway.
1. A first baseman with power would be nice.
2. A left fielder with power would be nice.
3. Bullpen help is always welcome.
Let's start by looking at the available free ageints. We will start with the free agents who might require compensation.
Josh Willingham OF - It seems a lot of the internet want the Indians to sign this guy. He hit .246 with 29 HR and 98 RBI. He is a LFer who DHed 40 times. He is a career .262 hitter who has a career high in HR last year and will be 33 when the season starts and his OPS was only .810. Unless he comes cheap ($6 million or less and willing to accept only a 2-year deal) my vote is no. I understand he is the best of the lot available but I don't like the spike in HRs in his walk year.
David DeJesus RF - Not enough HRs, not enough RBI and not healthy enough.
Magglio Ordonez RF - Only if he is healthy would I even consider it and, then, only on a cheap, incentive-laden, one year deal.
Carlos Pena 1B - No BA but a lot of walks, HR and sufficient RBIs to bat him somewhere in the middle of the order. His problem is he hits LH.
Michael Cuddyer OF - Like Willingham, a part-time DH and 33 next season, he is another popular internet favorite to be signed by the Indians. He has power but his RBI total is low. Again, if the price is right he is an improvement in the offense but probably hurts the defense.
Carlos Beltran OF - Again, if healthy and cheap, maybe worth a look. Probably both won't be true.
Jason Kubel OF - Not healthy, a part-time DH and hits left-handed. Only a last ditch guy for me
Derek Lee 1B - I don't see this guy as an upgrade over the 2012 version of Matt LaPorta.
Ryan Ludwick OF - The last choice in the FA OF sweepstakes, to me. He is back to the mediocrity he had when he played for the Indians that one year.
Now, for the way out there guys:
Jose Reyes SS - Sign this guy to hit leadoff, move ACab to 2B and Kipnis to LF. He is my prime target as I think he will be a cut above Phillips and Ramirez, but more expensive, too. I think this may help our IF defense and bringing in Lowe, our IF defense needs to be better. We can't give the other team 4 outs an inning with our starting pitchers. Reyes/Cabrera is better than Cabrera/Kipnis defensively.
Brandon Phillips 2B - Move Kipnis to LF
Aramis Ramirez 3B - Move Chisenhall to LF. He is the guy I target if the Reyes thing is too expensive. Look, Chisenhall is NOT a sure thing.
Not only will these three guys be expensive, but they will require position switches by other guys. Still, any of them would make this team better.
Then we have:
Prince Fielder - Too expensive and, even if we wanted to take the plunge, he hits left-handed meaning while he helps this team immensely, he causes us to dump LaPorta and have an even more LH hitting lineup. Good pickup but not worth the price given the above..
Albert Pujols - Everyone's #1. He makes our lineup...and breaks our bank...as if he would come to Cleveland anyway.
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