What in the heck do we do now?

Well, the trade for our new, shiny ace is now official. 

But we didn't do anything to address our RH hitter deficiency before the trade deadline.  So what do we do now?

Thank heavens we passed on Ryan Ludwick.  People who have any sense take out the trash, don't bring trash into their home.

I am a little more concerned we weren’t in on other RH bats available because, frankly, this offense sucks against lefties.  Cabrera and Santana eat up these guys but no one else does much.  We wasted a decent pitching performance today from Carmona and we have wasted many in the past month.

We traded the future for Jimenez and now we need to make that future now, to coin a Berra-esque phrase. 

So, where do we go from here?

We still have the same AAAA guys on the roster:

Kearns, Durbin and Hannahan.  We have got to upgrade from them.

We should upgrade from Herrmann, as well.

Here are my thoughts besides working on a waiver deal:

We DFA Kearns,Durbin and Hannahan.  I mean, how much worse shape could we be in offensively without them?

We bring up Head, Goedert, Judy and Chen Lee.  We send down Hermann.

Yeah, we ARE at desperation time.  We are ALSO at showcasing time.  Maybe Head gets hot.  I actually FEEL a Goedert hot streak coming on and you know how those can be!  For Judy and Lee, you go with the hot hands and those guys are doing well.  So they help us win or they help us get veterans who can help us win.

Yes, Head is a free swinger.  Goedert has stunk after he came back from injury and Judy and Lee are green.  But we give them a shot and showcase them at the same time. Maybe some of what we are throwing against the wall will stick.  Certainly it can’t be any worse than the stuff we are throwing out there now.  Plus, it gives the fans a chance to see what we have.  Guys the league doesn’t have a book on.  It’s what I used to call the bum of the month club.  Every rookie with some talent has a chance to be effective in the first month he is up as the league won’t yet have a book on him.  Yeah, there are minor league scouts but if major league scouts couldn't figure out in the WS in 1995 that David Justice had a better chance to hit Jim Poole than Eric Plunk, well, you get the idea.

After that first month of grace, however, weaknesses are usually exposed and only some rookies can adjust to the league’s adjustments.  The great thing is we have only one month left before September callus.

I really think, if we manage this correctly, we can keep our prospects and still compete, doing it with smoke and mirrors.

But that’s just me.

Well, this is confusing!

The Indians traded Orlando Cabrera to the Giants.  OK, so I said Cabrera needed to be traded as his value is overinflated because of his history of being on WS teams.

NOTE: This just in.  The Indians acquired SF's #7 pre-season (Baseball America) prospect Thomas Neal.  #1 prospect Belt is in the majors, #2 prospect Wheeler got traded for Beltran, #6 prospect Crawford is in the majors.  This means we got their 4th best prospect for Cabrera based on pre-season rankings.  For all of you who think OCab was a toad, all I can say is that the World Champions just traded one of their top prospects for the toad you dream OCab is.  As I have said many times here, OCab was worth much more in trade than just his numbers indicated he was and, once again, I am proven correct. 

Only one question left: Is Neal the guy we are trading to San Diego for Ludwick?  I hope to heck not.  Ludwick is trash right now and I am not into recycling. 

But that requires us to get something back for him.  You don't just dump a playoff good luck charm for nothing when you just mortgaged your future by trading away two of your top 4 prospects who were your two best prospects in the minors and your two best pitching prospects.

Not if you are going for it this year...unless you get a needed part back.

We'll see.

I hope to heck this works!

I could end this post here but let's go on.

Ubaldo Jimenez IS the future of the 2009 and a good chunk of the 2010 draft for the Cleveland Indians.

That is a mouthful.  Jimenez for Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Matt McBride and Joe Gardner.

Well, the last two are no loss.  Gardner was overrated at draft time and has sucked this year.  McBride is a 26 year old good hitter who still hasn't mastered AAA.  The two were throw-ins.  Sure, Colorado hopes that they help the PR of this trade (not that this trade needs much PR from a Colorado POV) and Colorado hopes to throw them (figuratively) against the wall and hope they stick but they are throw-ins.

I have to say that I would have liked to have received a "C" prospect like Corey Riordan to keep this deal interesting for a few years but, what the hey.

All I can say is I hope this works!  The Indians better well be darned sure they can compete this year and next year and that Jimenez is not a flash in the pan.  This trade stands a GREAT chance of backfiring on them if they don't.  With Pomeranz and White they looked to be competitive for the next 6 years if those guys came even close to reaching their potential.  With Jimenez, it could be the next 3 after this year.

Plus, this trade is only window dressing.  Even Jimenez is not going to win many games if the Indians keep getting shut out and no-hit.  Yes, if they have the hitting, YES if Carlos Carrasco can right his ship, YES if Fausto Carmona figures it out, YES if the bullpen continues to pitch well.  THEN we have a chance.

But it is all about hitting at this point and I think that would fix itself in 3 years.  It WON'T fix itself by the end of July 31st.

I hope to heck this works!

Musings for a Saturday

Tick, Tick, Tick!

The trade deadline is approaching and bringing thoughts into my head:

1.     I  note that at least one blogger has jumped on the Allen Craig bandwagon.  I still like him but he won’t be ready for at least 2-3 weeks and then who knows how good he will be.  As Mark McGwire said, without a solid base you can’t hit.  So Craig is someone I go after if I am a seller, not a buyer, at this point.  Maybe a waiver deal in August?

2.     One other blogger has pointed out that we should go after Mike Morse of Washington.  This, in theory, is a good idea but I imagine there are 5-10 guys (Allen Craig being one of them) who fit this bill.  They are good acquisitions if we are buyers (from non-contenders) or sellers (if we decide WE are non-contenders).  We should be on these types of guys all the time as we have excess in the starting pitcher and reliever areas.

3.     The Indians are in on everyone it seems (and that is a GOOD thing, as it means they are trying) but the guy who makes the least sense to me, is Michael Bourn.  What are we trying to do, construct an outfield or a track team (Brantley, Fukudome and Bourn)?

In the end, as others are catching on, we need to trade for the future at the same time as competing for the present.

Trade for him and put Kinston uniforms on the opponent

If you remember I wanted to draft Tim Melville instead of Trey Haley in the second round of 2008.  Well, so far Melville is better than Haley, but only incrementally.  Melville has been much better in the second half of his second tour in the Carolina League but where he has been REALLY good is against the Kinston Indians, pitching at least 3 games in which he did not give up an earned run, including last night.  I say trade Trey Haley for him and make our opponents wear Kinston uniforms!

Hey, Constanza, get in here!

Hold on!  We are talking Jose and not George.  Jose got his first major league action last night…but not for the Yankees.  He was called up yesterday by the playoff-bound Atlanta Braves and hit leadoff last night.

It is still a mystery to me how the pathetic teams the Indians had the last few years couldn’t have found a spot to give Constanza an extended look…or even a cup of coffee.

But the Indians know better than me and better than the Reds (Phillips) and the Orioles (Guthrie), the Phillies (Coste) and a bunch of other teams who pick up guys we won’t give a shot to.  Meanwhile, we get Shelly Duncan, Travis Buck, Adam Everett and others who are trashed within ½ a season. 

More international stuff

Hey, John Mirabelli, don't look now but the Kansas City Royals are spending more than you in Latin America.

As has been said here before, the amount you spend in Latin America isn't always equal to the prospects you are getting but the Royals have signed the #1 and #12 prospects on the Baseball America list, spending $5 million to do it. 

Note also that the Royals are averaging just over 1,000 people less a game than the Indians are and that difference is likely to continue to increase as the season goes along, assuming the Indians remain somewhere in contention. 

I rarely talk about Dolan cheapness but if you can't match the cellar dwellar in your league in spending, you have an issue. 

Not that I am saying we need to go hog wild but you gotta look to at least keep up with your own division, right John?  There are still some good prospects out there.  How about we get some of them?  We certainly don't have many flyers from the draft worth spending money on.

Fukudome - A name with many pronounciations

Fukudome.  It's an interesting name.  Depending on how you pronounce it you get an entirely different meaning.

For example, if you hyphenate that name after the first three letters, after the fourth letter, and pronounce the last part  ("dome") as "dummy", you get what some angry Indians' fans are saying to Antonetti and Shapiro about the Indians' acquisition today.

If you break it up like Fu-kudo-me, you may be getting what Antonetti is saying about himself tonight.  Or, after reading the angry fans' comments F-u-kudo-me.

 For me, no matter how you pronounce it, this is an OK trade.  I don't think it hurts our farm system that much and it might help our major league team. 

However, I have an obligation to point out that whenever you bring a former Cub into a team in a pennant race you are playing Russian roulette.  Former Cubs do not, historically, give you an advantage in a pennant race and, many times, become an albatross or anchor around your neck, depending on your metaphoric state.   However,  my thinking is, given the Cubs season, our new Indian may not have been playing with the zest he may in a pennant race and his recent hitting may be a sign to his new employer that they can expect more out of him than his current stats would sugges.  Let's hope so.

As far as the guys we gave up, Abner Abreu had an abysmal season that was mitigated only by an incredible July.  That being said, we traded this guy at close to his top value, at least in the last two years.  Carlton Smith had a mediocre yet progressing career in which he kept moving up the ladder and, with experience, kept getting better once he got to a level.  He has some upside and may yet see the majors this year if he performs well after the trade.  Guys traded for major leaguers tend to do that if, for no other reason, than to justify the trade.

In other words, we didn't dent our farm system with this trade.  Yes, Abreu reminded me somewhat in his healthy Lake County year of a healthy Vlad Guerrero but he didn't have either the plate discipline nor health to be a top prospect anymore.  For me, he was the kind of guy who you trade for if you are the Cubs.  A guy that makes a trade like this something that you can't analyze for 3 years, about the time people have forgotten about it.  Smith gives you a guy you give a major league shot to this season to say 'see, we ARE getting a return for a rent-a-player'. 

This is a trade you make if you are the Indians and the kind of trade you make if you are the Cubs and find there is little or no market for Fukudome, correctly pronounced Fook-ah-dough-may. 

Let's hope it works out for both teams.  It certainly didn't hurt either of them.

Quick note: Luigi Rodriguez and others in the AZL

Just a quick note here.  Man, are these guys hammering the ball.  Luigi was called out by Baseball America and others in the off-season but he is dominating this league and appears to be getting hotter by the day.  His OPS is like 1.2!

Other guys are hammering, too.

I know the air is thin and probably hitter dominated like in the Arizona Fall League but man.

Although this is the lowest of US levels remember Jesus Aguilar impressed here last year and look at what he has done at Lake County this year.

Plus note Sterling's start yesterday in Lake County (where he may have been showcased for a possible trade coming up).

Ahhh, hope for the future...and from another group of Latin signees.  Hmmmm!

International Stuff

Is it worth spending money in Latin America? 

Simple answer is: Yes.  Differs from my previous positon on this subject you say?  Well, somewhat.  I think you have to play in both areas: the Rule 4 draft and the Latin area with the occasional (once every 3 years or so) rest-of-world top signing.  I mean, not $4 million signings like the A's did a couple of years ago but in that $1-1.5 million range, maybe one a year, plus 2 guys in that $500,000-800,000 range plus all your normal low cost signings.

Here is my thinking:  YES it is costly, more costly than if these guys were in the draft.  The reason is, obviously, competition.  It is an open market and there is no limit on what a prospect can command except for common sense by the teams writing the checks.  Still, though, consider this.  By my best googling only 19 teams have signed players during the current international signing period for bonuses of over $200,000.  That means that 11 teams have decided not to play this pricy game. 

This doesn't happen in the draft.  Thirty teams evenly divide the draft-eligible talent.  You get one out of every 30 players in rounds 4 through 50 and, if you are like the Indians this year with no extra picks, one out of 60 of the top 60 picks and somewhere a little north of one out of 30 for rounds 2 and 3.

So, yes, you can in theory pay less if you draft guys who sign for slot but you get less.   Consider this:

So far 37 players have signed for greater than $200,000 during the Latin American signing period that started July 2nd.   In the draft the 37th slot gets you 4 deep into the supplemental 1st round. 

Not to say that the 37 Latin signings are all the equivalent of their draft slot counterparts but you get the idea.

So, you get the pick of the Latin guys if you choose, like the Indians did, to play this summer as they signed 3 guys for over $200,000.  They got 3 of the top 37 guys PAID.  Now, as far as talent, who knows.  However, considering they got ONE of the top 67 players drafted in 2011, Latin America doesn't seem like a bad place to play.

Oh, BTW, Mr. Mirabelli, there appears to still be a number of top Latin prospects left to be signed as 9 of Baseball America's top 40 still appear to be available, although some have been linked to teams.

But why Latin America?   Aren't the odds of making it to the majors much longer for a 16-year old from a depressed foreign envinronment who is most likely not even comfortable in the US than for a seasoned college player or a HSer who has been to umpteen showcases and probably plays baseball and gets great coaching year-round?

Truly, I don't know the answer to that.  You can hypothesize that the Latin player is more driven and, while MAYBE not getting great coaching has focused on baseball a lot longer than the average American kid.  You can say he is more driven to succeed given the alternative of working hard for a year for what he makes in 2 months playing in the US, even in the low minors.   You can even say, if you believe such things, that baseball is in his blood; that is, that for some reason he is genetically more pre-disposed to be successful in baseball than the average American kid.  While this last point smells a lot like ethnic profiling to me and so I recoil from it, there are people who do believe it.

Are any or all of these true?  Who knows. 

But what I do know is this:  If you don't play you don't gain.

Let's take a look at Baseball America's mid-season top 50 prospects.  Here are the rankings, names, positions, teams, signing bonuses and year signed for each of the 8 guys who appeared in the top 25 of those rankings:

4. Julio Teheran, RHP, Braves, $850,000 in 2007
6. Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers, $580,000 in 2007
8. Jesus Montero, C, Yankees, $1.65 million in 2006
12. Jurickson Profar, SS, Rangers, $1.55 million in 2009
13. Manny Banuelos, LHP, Yankees, $800,000 in 2008
16. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Braves, $800,000 in 2007
18. Carlos Martinez, RHP, Cardinals, $1.5 million in 2010
25. Leonys Martin, OF, Rangers, $15.5 million in 2009

So, if you pay, you get good prospects.  Hmmm!

Now, let's take this one step further.  Let's look at the top international bonuses of all-time (not counting Cubans and rest-of-world guys) through 2009 and see how those guys have fared.

Michael Ynoa, 2008, Oakland, $4.25 million
Miguel Sano, 2009, Twins, $3.15 million
Gary Sanchez, 2009, Yankees, $3 million
Rafael Rodriguez, 2008, Giants, $2.55 million
Yorman Rodriguez, 2008, Reds, $2.5 million
Wily Mo Pena, 1999, Yankees, $2.44 million
Joel Guzman, 2001, Dodgers, $2.25 million
Angel Villalona, 2006, Giants, $2.1 million
Juan Duran, 2008, Reds, $2 million
Adys Portillo, 2008,  Padres, $2 millin
Jose Vincio, 2009, Red Sox, $1.95 million
Miguel Cabrera, 1999, Marlins, $1.8 million
Jesus Montero, 2006, Yankees, $1.65 million
Jackson Melian, 1996, Yankees, $1.6 million
Jurickson Profar, 2009, Rangers, $1.55 million
Ricardo Aramboles, 1998, Yankees, $1.52 million
Luis Sardinas, 2009, Rangers, $1.5 million
Michael Almanzar, 2007, Red Sox, $1.5 million
Esmailyn Gonzalex, 2006, Nationals, $1.4 million
Fernando Martinez, 2005, Mets, $1.4 million
Willy Aybar, 2000, Dodgers, $1.4 million
Carlos Truifenl, 2006, Mariners, $1.3 million
Luis Domoromo, 2008, Padres, $1.25 million
Juan Urbina, 2009, Mets, $1.25 million
Chelser Cuthbert, 2009, Royals, $1.1 million
Julio Morban, 2008, Mariners, $1.1 million
Kelvin De Leon, 2007, Yankees, $1.1 million
Alvaro Aristy, 2008, Padres, $1 million
Jharmidy De Jesus, 2007, Mariners, $1 million

There are a lot of good prospects there, some costing no more than what whe paid for Sean Smith and Nick Pesco, if you remember the two of them.    Some clunkers but, if you throw out the Yankees and a few picks that didn't work out, it seems like a lot of the high priced Latin guys DO work out. 

Is this a greater % than the high-priced US guys?  Well, that is the topic of a whole other analysis that I will get back to later.  One the surface, though, it seems the answer might be yes.

So, while I talked the talk in the past of not wanting to overspend on Latin prospects I am walking the walk of seeing how spending more profusely in this area may be rediscovering the undiscovered country, so to speak.

BTW, here is an up-to-date look at the Latin guys who have signed this signing period.  The guys without a team (at the bottom of the list) have not signed yet.  Mr. Mirabelli, are you listening?  Please see the unsigned guys in yellow for a shopping list.

Ranking, Name, Position, Country	Team	Bonus
NR Iosif Bernal, OF, Panama	Atlanta	$230,000
16. Manuel Marcos, OF, Dominican Republic	Boston	$800,000
17. Raimel Flores, SS, Dominican Republic	Boston	$900,000
NR Dioscar Romero, RHP, Venezuela	Boston	$600,000
8. Marck Malave, C, Venezuela	Chicago Cubs	????
9. Luis Enrique Acosta, SS, Dominican Republic	Chicago Cubs	$1.1 million
30. Ricardo Marcano, 3B, Venezuela	Chicago Cubs	????
39. Jonathan Perez, RHP, Venezuela	Cincinnati	$825,000
14. Dorssys Paulino, SS, Dominican Republic	Cleveland	$1.1 million
29. Anthony Santander, OF, Venezuela	Cleveland	$385,000
NR Fancisco Miguel, OF, Dominican Republic	Cleveland	$200,000
27. Antonio Senzatela, RHP, Venezuela	Colorado	????
26. Adelin Santa, 3B, Dominican Republic	Detroit	$750,000
13. Luis Reynoso, SS, Dominican Republic	Houston	$700,000
40. Arturo Michelena, SS, Venezuela	Houston	$220,000
NR Harold Arauz, RHP, Panama	Houston	$300,000
1. Elier Hernandez, OF, Dominican Republic	Kansas City	$3.05 million
22. Miguel Gonzalez, RHP, Dominican Republic	Minnesota	$650,000
24. Jose Garcia, C, Venezuela	NY Mets	$800,000
20. Miguel Andujar, 3B, Dominican Republic	NY Yankees	$750,000
4. Roberto Osuna, RHP, Mexico	NY Yankees ??	????
15. Harold Ramirez, OF, Colombia	Pittsburgh	$1.1 million
23. Elvis Escobar, OF, Venezuela	Pittsburgh	$570,000
7. Jose Ruiz, C, Venezuela	San Diego	$1.1 million
11. Helsin Martinez, OF, Dominican Republic	Seattle	$2 million
3. Victor Sanchez, RHP, Venezuela	Seattle	$2 million plus
35. Jose Godoy, C, Venezuela	St. Louis	$200,000
NR Dewin Perez, :LHP, Colombia	St. Louis	$450,000
36. Eric Otanez, C, Dominican Republic	Tampa Bay	????
2. Ronald Guzman, OF, Dominican Republic	Texas	$3.5 million
10. Nomar Mazara, OF, Dominican Republic	Texas	$5.0 million
19. Yohander Mendez, LHP, Venezuea	Texas	$1.5 million
NR Eduard Pinto OF, Venezuela	Texas	$300,000
5. Wilmer Becerra, SS/OF, Venezuela	Toronto	????
6. Dawel Lugo, SS, Dominican Republic	Toronto	$1.3 million
21. Jesus Gonzalez, OF, Venezuela	Toronto	????
33. Manuel Cordova, RHP, Venezuela	Toronto	?????
12. Adalberto Mondesi, SS, Dominican Republic
18. Franmil Reyes, OF, Dominican Republic
25. Carlos Tocci, OF, Venezuela
28. Mauricio Silva, RHP, Venezuela
31. Manuel Gonzalez, RHP, Dominican Republic
32. Gialy Arias, RHP, Dominican Republic
34. Sanber Pimentel, OF/1B, Dominican Republic
37. Yairo Munoz, SS, Dominican Republic
38. Soid Marquez, RHP, Venezuela

Musings from July 21st

Glass Man Grady

Wow, whooda thunk it?  Grady Sizemore becoming the villain in “Unbreakable”.    The latest is that he gets hit in the knee and then has hernia surgery.  While the two aren’t likely to be connected, who knows with The Glass Man.  

I have had rice paper that is more durable than this guy has become.  And the timing can’t be worse for the Indians, both this season and this winter.  Sizemore has just made himself untradeable and it makes it very questionable whether the Indians pick up his option.  Still, with him and Carmona you almost have to pick up the option and gamble that you get production or a good deadline deal next year for each of them.  Letting them walk is a waste of resources as that $14 million most likely won't be dumped into player development and prospect procurement, where it belongs.

Here Comes Kipnis

Well, it was only a matter of time.  Give the fans what they want.  Give them youth (hey, I’ll take a double helping of that, please).  Good on ya, mate! 

Time to see if the kids can play.

Now, to make room for Judy and Putnam and, later on, Chen and Hagadone.

If You Were At the Captains’ Game Today….

I am jealous as heck.  What a game.  Score looked more like a 3^rd grade T-ball game.

Time to trade some veterans!

What if we traded Tony Sipp or Rafael Perez?  Could we get something back in return with the anticipation of Nick Hagadone coming up?  Yes, most definitely.  Throw in a B prospect and I think you can get an A prospect back. 

Should we trade Joe Smith?  YES.  He will NEVER be more valuable than he is now, in a pennant race, with his stats.  Mark my words.  Given what I am reading, he could get us a solid ‘B’ prospect, if not a ‘B+’ guy if we go for a low minors guy. 

Should we trade Orlando Cabrera? YES.  While he IS the designated MLB playoff good luck charm, he is worth more on another team than on this one.  With Kipnis and Donald knocking DOWN the door, it’s time to make this move.  Plus, his value is inflated much more by his history than his performance, which will only deteriorate as he wears down in the stretch.

Kearns, Durbin and Duncan – The Indians, in their own shrewd way, are showcasing these guys.  It seems to be having some success with Kearns but Durbin and Duncan are not helping their cause.  Nonetheless, Duncan should probably be the most valuable of the three just because of his pinch hitting prowess.   Trade them all.  See how many more Zach McAllister returns you can get.

People are clamoring for bench and relief help and we have the guys to trade.  Let’s trade them, get something back and move on to our younger guys.

Oh, BTW, the trade market for RH OFers is so crazy I hope the Indians are not stupid enough to play in it.  ‘Let them eat contracts’ should be ‘Marie’ Antonetti’s comment to other GMs trying to commit prospect robbery from contenders at the deadline.

2010 Draft Recap and Thoughts

“Potentially the best draft in Cleveland Indians’ history”

“From early returns, the Indians had the best draft in baseball in 2010.”

Assessments like this were flying around the internet after the August 15^th deadline in 2010.

When the dust settled, from my analysis, the only guy the Indians didn’t sign from their most aggressive draft in ANYONE’S memory was Burch Smith, who wound up as a 15^th round pick for San Diego this year after a decent but not great year at the University of Oklahoma this year.

What I believed at the time was that the Indians were aggressive and picked a bunch of great players, including guys who dropped due to signability issues….and signed almost all of them.

Now that we are over one year from this draft, let’s take a look back at lessons learned.

First, it is to early to hail or criticize any of these draft picks.  Still, the early returns are telling.

Drew Pomeranz – Given that he started his pro career at high A, dominated, and is now in AA, he is a success

LeVon Washington – Some would say that this pick is not looking too good right now but I disagree.  I think Washington is going to be fine and was a high upside guy

Ton Wolters – Another guy who dropped, people wondered if he could hit.  Well, so far, he has hit.  I still like this pick a lot.

Kyle Blair – The first negative story (but not the last) so far.  I was shocked when they started him at low A but, in looking at the 2010 college pitchers we drafted who were Baseball America top 200 prospect guys last year who were on the Lake County roster, I immediately anointed the Captains as repeat Midwest League champions.  Wow, was I wrong.  So what has happened to Mr. Blair?  I don’t have a clue.  Seeing him in person it was obvious to me that he is leaving his pitches up.  Given his stats, it appears that that slice of his season I viewed was pretty typical.    A highly drafted and ranked college pitcher like him should dominate low A.  The fact that he isn’t is a big red flag on his performance.

Cole Cook – Red flag #2 at Lake County.  He is pitching only slightly better than Blair.  While my expectations for Cook were a lefty version of Jensen Lewis, his current performance says he may be only be a slightly better version of Cody Bunkelman.  This is puzzling.  Don’t know what’s going on but even a mediocre college pitcher should do better at low A in his first full season than Cook is doing.

Nick Bartolone – The first clunker in this draft, at least on draft day, he is living up to his own mediocrity.  Not that he doesn’t have tools, just not enough to be considered a 6^th round talent.

Robbie Aviles – The miracles here are that he signed and that he had TJ surgery and one year later is already back pitching.  The results stink so far but, if he is pain free, with his pedigree, this could end up as the second best pick from this draft.

Alex Lavisky – He can catch and the power is there.  I don’t know why he is struggling at Mahonning Valley.  He should be dominating after he held his own at Lake County.  I am still sure his second half at Mahoning Valley will be stellar as he can do this!

Jordan Cooper – College pitcher crash and burn part 3, he appears to be just another mediocre college arm at low A ball.

Tyler Holt – He is hitting around .260 at high A.  No power, not much speed, not great defense.  He is, to me, a poor man’s Ezequiel Carrera who, in turn, is a poor man’s major league outfielder.  You get the picture.  Without something unusual (like  he develops 20 HR power overnight) he is 3^rd in line for the slap-hitting 4^th outfielder spot behind Jordan Henry and Carrera.  Not what we should get for the size of his bonus.

That is it for the first rounds.  We also got Anthony Dischler out of this draft who was thought to be a 5^th round talent.  So far he is a mess, struggling at both low A and short-season A ball.

Summary: This draft is not looking as good right now as it did on paper.  Time will tell if the Indians drafted the right guys or just guys in the right quality group.  You always want the latter because it gives you a fighting chance.  However, the successful teams do the former.  This IS a long-term draft, however. Aviles, Washington, Wolters and Lavisky will take a long time to develop.  However, while waiting for those guys we thought we would get a quick shot in the arm from Blair, Cook, Dischler, Holt and Cooper and none of those guys look like major leaguers at all, let alone guys who will get to the majors quickly.  This draft, on paper, was great.  We just need to find a way to get the college guys going to make it both a short term and long term success.

What If?

OK, so I am a Cleveland Indians fan and, as such, I believe that the future of the Cleveland Indians is, well, the future.  In Cleveland you never play for the present.  The ‘90s showed us what you can do if you have a core of homegrown and traded-for prospects whose rights you control for a lot of years.  It also showed us what happens if you then stop worrying about player development and become a buyer of veterans, using the next waves of prospects as currency.

But, let’s play “What If?”

What if the Indians traded for Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes?

The Mets signaled the beginning of their fire sale by trading FRod to Milwaukee yesterday for two PTBNL, the quality of which are unknown but probably decent, although the Brewers have already decimated their farm system by ‘going for it’ this year.

Beltran is rumored to be going to SanFran or Detroit but, what if?

First, I wouldn’t want JUST Beltran.  That would be too expensive for too little in return although, as a switch-hitter he solves our RH-hitting OF power issue, at least on paper.  He is a free agent at the end of this year and he is making $18.5 million this year.  Depending on what type of prospects the Mets pried from Milwaukee, I am betting, with the competition for Beltran, he would cost too much, especially with his pending free agency. He could be part of a trade, but not the centerpiece, and would be as much to keep him out of Detroit as to solve or RH power hitting problem. 

But, what if we could get Reyes, too?

The Mets GM, Sandy Alderson, has said that Reyes, currently on the DL but looking fit at the All-Star game workouts, is not going to be traded.  It might be a public relations nightmare if he was.  In New York, rebuilding is defined as waiting until high priced all-stars from other teams become free agents and then signing them to bloated contracts, NOT trading popular veterans for prospects.  Not in NY, not with the Yankees lurking.. 

But what if?

Hear me out.

Very few teams in baseball could offer an immediate replacement for Reyes, one the sizeable Latino community in the Big Apple could relate to, one who wouldn’t be a PR nightmare as a replacement for  a guy who is considered in many circles as the best all-around player in baseball.  We can: Asdrubal Cabrera.  Cabrera is about to get REAL expensive, entering his second of three arbitration years.  However, we do own him for two more seasons after this one.  Reyes is a free agent at the end of the year, meaning he won’t be back to Cleveland next year.  I think it is clear that the Mets, with their resources, could sign Cabrera to an extension giving them 3-4 or more years of ACab instead of risking that they could re-sign Reyes and at a cheaper pay rate than Reyes will command.  So that part of the deal would work.

But who else do we trade?

Look, it is going to take at least one blue chip prospect and probably a low minors, high upside prospect in addition to Cabrera to get this done.  The guy most likely as the blue chip prospect would be either Jason Kipnis (currently ranked 31^st best prospect in baseball by Baseball America) or Drew Pomeranz (ranked #13).  Let’s assume they want Pomeranz if, for no other reasons then that he is a pitcher (only three of their top 10 prospects are pitchers and it is a relatively weak prospect list) and it is better PR to get the higher ranked prospect.  Plus Chisenhall plays third base, currently occupied by an all-star in David Wright who, while being injured right now, is still their star at third and Kipnis is a ML hitter, but still questionable as a ML secondbaseman.   For the low minors, high upside guy, what about LeVon Washington, who is currently the whipping boy of various Indians’ minor league forums?

So, what about this for a trade:

Mets get: Cabrera, Pomeranz, Washington, Austin Kearns, Chad Durbin (sorry, I want the latter two gone so, like the Colon trade in which we got Stevens, I want to dump Kearns and Durbin on the Mets)

Indians get: Reyes, Beltran, minor league pitcher Taylor Whitenton and about $8 million.

The Indians save their top position player prospects and “go for it” for their fans AND get a low minors starter with some upside (which teams tend to do so the true result of a trade ‘isn’t known for several years’).  The Mets get their SS replacement, a near-ready top prospect LH pitcher and a deep minors guy (for the same reason the Indians want one). Plus the Indians get draft choices when Reyes doesn’t sign and maybe draft choices when Beltran signs elsewhere if they have the stones to offer him arbitration.  So, this is a trade the Indians might be able to make.  But would they want to?

Reyes is injured

Beltran is not hitting lefthanded pitching very well this year (.202) although he is good for his career (.295).

Cabrera has two more years left before he can be a free agent and we might be poised next season to start a dynasty.  Trading him with no ready replacement could take the legs out from under that dynasty.

Pomeranz is the future and a significant part of that dynasty, if it comes into being.

LeVon Washington is the distant future and part of the fuel that will keep that dynasty going, if he develops..

No, I wouldn’t do this.  Not in a million years.  I eat the 2011 season and choke on it before I do this

But then I am a lifelong Cleveland Indians’ fan and, for me, the future is…the future.

But what if?!?!?!?!?!?!?

Looking back on our 2010 deadline deals

WARNING: Indians' fans with uncontrolled high blood pressure should avoid this post.

As I watch the all-star game I see Asdrubal Cabrera replaced by Jhonny Peralta.  Wow!  In the meantime I see Giovanny Soto having a mediocre season. 

This pretty much defines the 2010 deadline deals for the Indians: Good stuff going out, not a lot coming back.  So let's take a look back:

The good:

Russell Branyan for Juan Diaz and Ezequiel Carrera: You can always count on Seattle for a good deadline deal...for the other team...if that team is Cleveland.  The organization who gave away Cabrera and Choo to us did a min-repeat in this deal, mini being defined as two intriguing prospects with some, if only a little upside.  Not Choo, not even Cabrera, who has blossomed here.  But some upside.  In this unexplainable deal of a veteran to a team who had him and could have just re-signed him but let him go, a team that was probably, for all practical purposes, out of it when it acquired Branyan, the Indians ended up with minor league depth and the Mariners ended up with very little production from Branyan, last seen hitting about a buck and a half in LA. 

Austin Kearns AND Kerry Wood for Zach McAllister:  Now, the bloggers will tell you that this was really just Kearns for McAllister and how we stole Zach in this deal.  Horsepucky!  If Kerry Wood tanks in NY we don't get squate for the combination of them.  While, ON PAPER, Kearns was the only guy whose trade owed us fungible PTBNL, it was the performance of the two, mostly Wood, that got us McAllister.  Still, a good deal for us...until we wasted our time signing Kearns again.  Not that McAllister is anything more than a 4th/5th starter, but he IS something of use to this team now and in the future.

Now, if Kearns and Dubring can only get hot in the next two weeks maybe we can trade them to the Yankees and get Pat Venditte, the ambidextrous marginal pitching prospect, back.

The bad:

Ahhh, here is where we get back to Peralta.  The Indians, with no real options at 3B and an option on Peralta for the next year, chose to dump his contract and get a mediocre prospect back in Giovanny Soto.  Not that Soto is horsemeat or organizational filler.  He isn't.  Truth be told, unless some injury or Steve Blass-like condition besets him, he is likely to play in the majors someday.  Still, when you are traded for an all-star not even at the end of his contract, you should be MUCH better than that.  Yeah, Peralta's contract option was bloated and he was having trouble getting motivated to play hard in Cleveland, but he is a middle infielder with power who wasn't a 2-month pickup and one who has played and performed well on a winner...and isn't that the definition of the kind of guy you want to acquire at the deadline.  So, for him, we get Soto.  Really not very good and only Soto's middling prospect status is keeping this from being a disaster.  So three of the guys in the all-star game were traded by this organization and right now, the best we have to show for it is Brantley?  Not real good at the moment and a big problem going forward if LaPorta, Carrasco and Donald don't start to produce at ML average levels.


The Ugly:

Jake Westbrook for Corey Kluber:  I knew this deal sucked at the time and said so.  I knew it was in real trouble when Shapiro pimped Kluber so hard last winter that he got a lot of people (various bloggers and even Baseball America) fired up into believing Kluber was something.  Well, the Cardinals got Westbrook (and still have him), the Padres got Ludwick, who some sucker of a GM will turn into a couple of decent prospects for the Padres in a couple of weeks and we got a guy not in the top 30 in a weak minor league organization (San Diego).  It was a salary dump, which, despite tight finances, a small market club CANNOT do.    It hurt this organization and we should have come up with a guy at least as good, if not better, than McAllister. 

The Indians are always in need of prospects.  They actually got very little out of their deals last year and the teams they traded with got a lot.  This, following on deals for Sabathia and Cliff Lee that look pretty sucky at this point, are part of the reason that we are having to use AAAA players on the roster this year.  The success is admirable but has little to do with these and previous deadline deals, except for the Victor Martinez deal which is looking pretty even at this point.

We have to do better this July.  Also, given the lack of success of this organization over the past few years in deadline deals, be very afraid if they decide to bring in talent.  The FO-supportive bloggers will then be singing the tune that you have to overpay at the deadline and dissing the prospects we give up, whereas those same people were singing the opposite tune when we were getting stiffed in deadline deals over the past few years.

Small market teams create dynasties by drafting well, signing the appropriate bargain FAs, and trading veterans in deadline deals where they get a lot back in terms of young players.    Sprinkle in the appropriate international FA signings and you have a dynasty.  The Indians are not taking advantage of their resources to rebuild this team at the deadline and that is and WILl hurt them in the future if they don't correct it.