PAIN
OK, in the middle of a crucial series with Minnesota. That's where my focus is. Kind of afraid I am going to be in for the disappointment of this year which was never exemplified more than by Saturday's game where Gimenez, Arias and Freeman struck out when we had loaded the bases with no outs after the Jays committed two errors on relatively easy ground balls. On the other hand, I remember last year when we were struggling around this time of year and fans were jumping ship and then the Guardians put together a torrid September to pull away from the White Sox and Minnesota. I also remember yesterday, when we kept coming back after blowing an early lead and, somehow, found a way to win. So, as Clubber Lang said when asked what his prediction was, my prediction for this 3 game series is "Pain". I hope it is pain/angst for the Twins if we can draw closer and not the Guardians and that the race is much closer after Wednesday. Thus are the hopes of a diehard fan.
SERIES PREP
This is, of course, the most important series of the year. No series before or after this has the importance of this series...until the next time we play Minnesota in less than a week. Win 2 and we are still in the hunt. Win 3 and it will make it interesting. Loss 3 and it is over. Lose 2 and we are almost out of it. Just that simple. Wish we had more veterans. Wish Naylor was back. But none of that matters. We have what the FO has allowed us to have and we have to work with it. Go Guards!
LEFT-HANDED HITTERS
Francona is, all the time, asking for right-handed hitters to balance out our lefty-learning lineup of the Naylor bros, Kwan, Brennan and Gimenez. What the front office gives us, however, is more LH hitters in trades and in the draft.
All this works, of course, if the LH hitters can hit LH pitching. So far this year the splits for our LH hitters go like this:
Kwan:
vs LHP: /255/.324/.335
vs RHP: .273/.340/.390
Bo Naylor:
vs LHP: .179/.207/.250
vs RHP: .210/.308/.410
(NOTE: Last year, between AA and AAA, he hit .225 against lefties and .275 against righties)
Josh Naylor:
vs. LHP: .289/.324/485
vs. RHP: .312/.354/.506
Andres Gimenez:
vs LHP: .252/.323/.371
vs RHP: .232/.299/.392
Will Brennan
vs. LHP: .189/.211/230
vs RHP: .287/.302/.408
So, in theory, we would only need to platoon Brennan. Not that Bo Naylor and Gimenez are hitting well overall but their splits are not the problem.
That brings us to the Guardians predisposition to draft and trade for LH hitting position players (and some guys who are switch hitters). Looking at the minor league stats of our LH hitting top position players here is what I see:
Chase DeLauter
vs LHP: .231/.222/.385
vs RHP:.373/.448/.579
(NOTE: One of the red flags about DeLauter before the draft is that early in the 2022 college season Florida State lefties carved him up. So far he has extreme platoon splits which is, at least, a question mark for his projection in the major leagues. Time will tell).
Kyle Manzardo
vs. LHP: .160/.266/.287
vs RHP: .269/.369/.500
(NOTE: In 2022 those exreme splits were there but, at lower levels, he hit lefties better .265/.333/.485, making his 2023 at the same time concerning and possibly an aberration that will correct itself as he gains more experience and sees more and more quality LHP)
George Valera
vs LHP: .175/.333/.270
vs RHP: .239/.359/.428
(NOTE: In 2022 he hit lefties relatively better, going .237/.325/.384 compared to righties .255/.361/.483)
So, our top 3 LH hitting prospects all have platoon issues with lefties with Manzardo's the most concerning but DeLauter's concerning, as well, because they are buried in his overall stat line this year because he is simply carving up righties in A+ ball.
Guys who have not made it to AAA really can't be judged completely as they have seen so few quality LHP in the low minors that it is only at AA and AAA that they will see more lefties to give us an idea of platoon splits. Still, to put most of your eggs in the basket of LH hitters being able to handle LH pitchers by drafting and trading for LH hitters is fool-hardy IMO. It is bad drafting and trading strategy UNLESS these guys are passable against LHP like Kole Calhoun has been (see below)
Suffice it to say that looking at the stats of these 3 prospects I don't really see one guy who is guaranteed to be an every day player in the majors. But some said that about Josh Naylor last year and looked how that turned out with hard work. That is a good reason to keep Kole Calhoun around as he appears to have been able to hit LH pitchers pretty well throughout his career. Another reason to try to find a spot for him next season if he wants to stay at a reasonable price.
WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN
The DFA of Noah Syndergaard is just disgusting. We are on the hook for all of his salary and getting nothing for it. At the same time Amed Rosario, though not worth his salary, is being a productive role player for LA. So, if you were LA would you rather have Syndergaard or Rosario right now? The answer is clear and the same for the Guardians. Trading Rosario should not have been an addition by subtraction move. Low-budget teams like Cleveland cannot afford to throw ANY asset awy, especially not for a guy who costs you the same amount and is DFA'd less than a month later.
So, if we think what could have been: What would have happened if we kept Rosario. The Guardians went 3-3 in Syndergaard's 6 starts although he gave up 5 runs in 3 of those starts. He ate an average of 5.5 innings per start. Could Gaddis or Battenfield done that well? Doubtful.
But what if we had kept Civale and kept Rosario and made Rosario the defacto DH? Well, Civale outpitches Syndergaard every day of the week and he has averaged 5.2 innings a start for Tampa who have won 3 of his 4 starts. The most runs he gave up in those starts is 3 runs which he did we times.
Now, what about keeping Rosario and making him the DH when Ramirez didn't take a day off from the field. Well, here are the stats for our DHs since August 1 vs Rosario's Dodger stats in the same time.
(1) 67 AB, 7 R, 17 H, 5 RBI, 3 HR, 1 BB, 20 K
(2) 70 AB, 11 R, 17 H, 14 RBI, 3 HR, 4 BB, 7 K
So, which is which? I think the Ks give it away as (1) is the non-Ramirez Cleveland DHs during that time while you can see how effective Rosario might have been in his (2) stats. In essence, however, the difference between what we got and what Rosario could have produced is a wash meaning that keeping Rosario would have probably been a better move this year even if we never let him play the field!
Summary: So, if we had just kept Rosario and Civale we would be a lot better off than we are now. Obviously how Manzardo develops will determine if that swings the balance of these deals back more to center but, right now, the FO looks like idiots for trading Rosario for Syndergaard and trading 2+ years of Civale for Manzardo, as both moves crippled us this season, both player-wise and financially when you include the unnecessary signing of Ramon Laureano whose salary balances out the scales from what we saved by trading Civale.
OUR MINOR LEAGUE PROSPECTS
Love that guys are still producing. As I said, Cantillo is not quite ready as you could see from his outing yesterday. But Chase DeLauter, Jonathon Rodriguez, Jose Tena, Brayan Rocchio, Juan Brito, Jaison Chourio and many other hitters are showing up and showing out while some of our pitchers like Tommy Mace, Cade Smith, Tanner Burns, Steve Hajjar and others are putting up multiple strong performances as their seasons wind down. Even Ross Carver put in one gem (6.1 IP, 12 K, 1 ER) last week. Jake Miller, Ethan Hankins and Ryan Webb are also putting up good numbers as they struggle to get innings in just to get ready for healthy 2024 seasons after injury-filled previous seasons. Justin Campbell is even back on the mound and there is hope to see other injury guys back at full strength next spring. Hankins, if he finishes strong, may even be in line to be added to the 40-man this winter, something I wouldn't have bet a wooden nickel on this spring. Franco Aleman has turned himself into an interesting relief prospect throwing close to 100 mph while not giving up a run in his nearly 2 months at AA. So, lots to dream on in our prospects for the winter. The fact that we have fallen to having only the 15th best farm system in baseball shows that the Guardians have a lot of work to do and our 2022 and 2023 draftees are, for the most part, looking really bad so far in their professional careers, if they were even healthy enough to start their careers!
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