Tuesday, August 29, 2023

Cleveland Guardians Minor League Options - Thoughts On How This Impacts Our Strategy

 Just to revisit this topic as we approach September, let's look at the minor league options each of our players have left:  Under the new CBA each player gets 3 different years (up to 5 times per year) in which they can be optioned to the minor leagues after being placed on the 40-man roster for the first time (the 4th option year in certain situations was eliminated).   If a player is optioned but gets called back to the majors before 20 days after his option, he does not lose a minor league option for that year. Players who are removed from the 40-man roster for the first time, assuming they have not accrued enough service time (ML or minor league or a combination) can be sent to the minors.  If they HAVE accrued enough service time (3 yrs ML service time) they can reject being sent to the minors but forfeit any salary they have coming.  If a player is removed from the 40-man roster a second time in their career they can elect to become a free agent without forfeiting their salary.  With all that in mind here is the state of our players in terms of option years and the ability to become free agents if they are DFA'd.  The asterisked players have not been optioned to the minors this year.  Plesac and Lavastida have been removed from the 40-man roster once so, if added and DFA'd again, can opt to be free agents.  Plesac will be a 6-year minor league free agent if not added to the 40-man roster again this year.

THREE MINOR LEAGUE OPTION YEARS LEFT AS OF TODAY

Steven Kwan*
Josh Naylor*
Will Brennan*
Emmanuel Clase*
Trevor Stephan*
Logan Allen* - Allen's option to Columbus in June doesn't count as he was called back in <20 days
Gavin Williams*
Tanner Bibee*
David Fry*
Jonathon Rodriguez - Not rostered yet.  If not rostered will be subject to Rule 5
Ethan Hankins - Not rostered yet.  If not rostered will be subject to Rule 5.

TWO MINOR LEAUGE OPTION YEARS LEFT AS OF TODAY

Zach Plesac - Not on roster.  If added can be FA if DFA'd again.  6 yr minor league FA if not rostered
Tim Herrin
Cody Morris
Bo Naylor
Juan Brito
Angel Martinez
Nick Sandlin
Joey Cantillo
Peyton Battenfield
Oscar Gonzalez
Andres Gimenez*
Myles Straw*
Shane Beiber*
Cal Quantrill*
Eli Morgan*
Xzavion Curry*

ONE MINOR LEAGUE OPTION YEAR LEFT AS OF TODAY

James Karinchak
Hunter Gaddis
Bryan Lavastida - No on roster.  If added can be FA if DFA'd again. Subject to Rule 5 if not rostered
Tyler Freeman
Brayan Rocchio
Jose Tena
George Valera
Jhonkensy Noel
Gabriel Arias*
Triston McKenzie*

ZERO MINOR LEAGUE OPTION YEARS LEFT

Jose Ramirez
Sam Hentges
Enyel De Los Santos

SUMMARY - The most interesting things to me about this list are:
  • Arias had only one minor league option left at the beginning of this year which explains why they didn't send him to the minors this year when he struggled.    Burning his last minor league option would have been a last resort as, if they burned it this year, he had to stay on the roster all next year or be DFA'd.  At least this way, if he has to be sent to the minors next year, they can still keep him on the 40-man roster
  • Next spring they will have a number of big-time prospects who will be out of options if they don't make the team out of spring training and are optioned to the minors.  While they will be able to go up and down at will (i.e., up to 5 times) next year they will then, in 2025, have to stay in the majors for good or have to be DFA'd.  
  • For guys like Karinchak, next year will tell the story.  Either they stay up with the ML team next year or they will be out of options the next spring.  For guys like Karinchak, they will have plenty of chances by that point, making the spectre of DFAing them in 2025 not seem that bad, if they don't perform.
  • Noel and Valera are special cases as neither have even cracked the majors for the first time yet, and are most vulnerable to run out of options before they reach the majors for good (80% of guys are sent back to the minors at least once after making their ML debut).  For these two, and the Guardians, this is really the worst possible situation as both are great prospects but who have, maturing to do yet so, have to make and stay in the majors at some point next year as they will be out of options after 2024.  The alternative is that they can be on the 26-man or 60-day DL all of next year and not burn an option.
  • Amazingly, except for guys like Norris, Laureano, Michael Kelly, Gallagher and Calhoun, on our current 40 man roster only Jose Ramirez, Enyel De Los Santos and Sam Hentges are out of options, giving us huge flexibility for the 2024 season but, as indicated above, hamstrings us in a number of cases  in 2025 and beyond.
  • Obviously, if we add more prospects to the 40-man this winter, they should all have 3 options left, assuming they didn't come from outside the organization in which case they may have already had one or more of the minor league options used by their previous club.
So, looking at the minor league options we gain a little insight into the moves the Guardians have and have not made this year.  Would still like to see Noel and Valera up to make cameos this year as we have already burned their options.   Bringing up any other guys we INTEND to roster this winter (e.g., Rodriguez) also makes sense if we choose to do that.  Unfortunately, the new expanded roster rules means that we can only bring up one more guy in September, unless we rotate guys who we have already burned an option on this year (e.g., Cantillo, Gaddis, Battenfield, Valera, Noel, Tena, Martinez,Herrin, .

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