OK, we are about 2 months away from the November 40-man roster freeze and about 3 months away from MLB's winter meetings which culminate in the Rule 5 drafts (MLB and MILB segments) that are really driven by the Rule 5-eligible players left off of teams' 40-man rosters in November.
Last month I wrote a blog post talking about how Cleveland HAD to make trades at the deadline in anticipation of the Rule 5 draft this winter, turning eligible players in the upcoming Rule 5 draft into major leaguers or lower level prospects not eligible for the Rule 5. Much of that urgency was driven by the fact that most of the 2021 almost-all-college-pitcher draft was coming due for it's first Rule 5. My angst was further fueled by the fact that there were lots of college pitchers from that draft who were performing very well and were at significant risk of being taken, and eventually lost, in the Rule 5. We are now 1+ months later and we traded ZERO of the Rule 5-eligible guys and those guys have continued to perform at a high level in upper levels of the minors. So the problem that existed back in July still exists.
Let's take a way too early look at the Guardians prospects who will be eligible this year and how they could slot into the November 40-man roster.
As a primer, here are the types of guys who will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter, if not protected on the November 40 man roster this November:
Eligible Again This Year
- College from the 2020 or earlier drafts (or signed in those years as college NDFAs)
- High school or international amateur signees from 2019 or before
Eligible For The First Time
- College players drafted (or signed as NDFAs) in 2021
- High school players signed in 2020 (NOTE: 2020 international class was signed in January, 2021, meaning they would be treated like 2021 HS draftees)
So, looking at those criteria here are a list of the top prospects in the organization who could be eligible for the Rule 5 this winter and the level they currently are at in the organization [NOTE: The players in bold are likely to be selected in the Rule 5 draft if not protected]:
First-timers (2021 draftees except where noted)
- Doug Nikhazy (AAA)
- Ryan Webb (AAA)
- Franco Aleman (AAA)
- Will Dion (AAA)
- Tommy Mace (AA)
- Milan Tolentino (AA) (2020 draft as a HS player)
- Aaron Davenport (AA)
- Petey Halpin (AA) (2020 draft as a HS player)
- Trenton Denholm (AA)
- Alaska Abney (AA)
Selected/Prominent Returnees (2nd time or more eligible) To Rule 5
- Nick Mikolajchak (AAA)
- Andrew Misiaszek (AAA)
- Lenny Torres Jr. (AA)* (2018 draft as a HS player)
- Alexfri Planez (AA)
- Dayan Frias (A+)
- Esteban Gonzalez (A+)
- Jose Devers (A+)
- Nic Enright (AAA)
* - Theoretically a 6-year minor league free agent if not added to the roster after this season.
So, without even stretching on some guys, we have 9 prospects (in bold above), all pitchers, who could easily be targeted in the ML portion of the Rule 5 IF they are not protected on Cleveland's 40-man roster by November or traded in the off-season before that roster freeze. All have had success at their highest level (AA or AAA) this year and all have appealing stuff to rebuilding ML teams who could easily find a slot for a young, controllable pitcher in their bullpen in 2025, after which that player could be sent back to the minors in 2026 to finish off their development, if necessary.
So that is 8 guys, all pitchers, who need slots on the 40-man roster this winter.
Now that we have addressed the guys who we SHOULD probably roster this winter, let's take a look at whether we have spots for them
So, how does our 40-man roster look right now and which guys will be coming off that roster.
Current 40-man roster (4 guys counting 60-day DL players who have to be placed back on the roster after the season)
[NOTE: guys in bold coming off the roster after this season as they will be free agents]
[NOTE: guys who are most vulnerable to be DFA'd after the season, if not before, are in red bold]
PITCHERS (16, those not in bold or red bold)
Logan Allen
Pedro Avila
Scott Barlow
Tanner Bibee
Shane Beiber (60 Day IL)
Matthew Boyd
Joey Cantillo
Carlos Carrasco
Emmanuel Clase
Alex Cobb
Daniel Espino
Hunter Gaddis
Connor Gillispie
Sam Hentges (60 Day IL)
Tim Herrin
James Karinchak (60 Day IL)
Ben Lively
Triston McKenzie
Eli Morgan
Eric Sabrowski
Nick Sandlin
Cade Smith
Trevor Stephan (60-day IL)
Peter Strzelecki
Gavin Williams
CATCHERS (2)
Bo Naylor
Austin Hedges
David Fry
INFIELDERS (8)
Gabriel Arias
Juan Brito
Andres Gimenez
Kyle Manzardo
Josh Naylor
\Jose Ramirez
Brayan Rocchio
Daniel Schneeman
OUTFIELDERS (8)
Will Brennan
Tyler Freeman
Steven Kwan
Angel Martinez
Jhonkensy Noel
Jonathon Rodriguez
Lane Thomas
George Valera
OVERALL SUMMARY
Not counting guys who will be free agents or who are most vulnerable to be DFA'd after the season, we have 35 players on the 40-man roster, of which 3 are currently on the 60 Day IL.
Of the free agents, we would clearly like to re-sign Shane Beiber and, if reasonable, Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb, in that order. But that is a discussion for another day. Focusing on the 40 man roster crunch this winter, the math is simple.
- 35 players on the current 40 who will NOT be free agents and are NOT likely to be DFA'd after the season.
- NOTE: Logan Allen, James Karinchak and Triston McKenzie are possibilities to be non-tendered this winter. and are counted among the 35.
- 8 players (all pitchers) who are NOT on the 40-man who have a high likelihood to be taken in the Rule 5 draft (or lost as 6-year minor league free agents) if not placed on the 40 man this winter
- 1-3 free agent pitchers we would like to bring back next year
- Maybe bringing back Austin Hedges over the winter or replace him with Bryan Lavastida, who would be a 6-year minor league free agent if we don't roster him.
This creates a scenario where we obviously have more guys than spots. How will the Guardians handle this process? We'll see what happens. but they have generally been pretty good in the past, although the players they did have drafted and eventually lost were much lower rated than the 8 players I have listed above who need to be protected. So, there's that.
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