Thoughts For A Sunday Morning - California Dreamin' Style - UPDATE

 MAGIC NUMBERS

The Guardians have a chance for a series win against the Dodgers today.  While that would be a great accomplishment, the point here is to keep moving forward to make the magic numbers shrink.  Right now here is where we are:

Magic Number to make the playoffs:  11

Analysis - We have 81 wins.  The 4th place team in the wildcard race is Seattle, which has 70 losses.  Since we own the tiebreaker over them, we only have to tie them, leading to the current magic number. Today the Mariners play the Cardinals and appear to have the pitching advantage with Castillo going against Mikolas.  A loss by Seattle today brings the magic number to 10.

Magic Number to win the division: 17

Kansas City has taken the first two games in their series with Minnesota so Minnesota has some urgency to win today.  Right now Kansas City has 65 losses and combined with Cleveland's 81 wins and Kansas City owning the tiebreaker over Cleveland by virtue of them winning the season series, the magic number is a true magic number which bakes into it us finishing with a better record than KC.  Pretty even pitching matchup today but a KC loss brings this magic number to 16.

Magic number to clinich a first round playoff bye: 17

As I have said previously, this only works if we WIN the division.  But assuming we can hold on and actually win the division, Houston has 65 losses meaning our magic number to have a better record than Houston is exactly the same as winning the division, 17.  Nelson against Verlander is an interesting matchup in the ARI vs HOUS game today and we won't know the outcome of this until after the Cleveland game today as the Cleveland game will end about when the Houston game starts.

So, there you have it.  We control our own destiny but any help we can get from the teams playing Seattle, Kansas City and Houston today will be greatly appreciated.  Yes, Cleveland controls its own destiny.  Win and you're in. However, it's the time of the year that scoreboard watching is OK and even somewhat required.

WE HAVE A BULLPEN PROBLEM

Don't panic.  From what we all know the bullpen is fine.  What I mean is if I think about the playoffs, we have Clase, Smith, Gaddis and Herrin locked in based on their performance.  But what about after them?  Each one of the remaining guys could be replaced by someone in our system.  Let's take a peek at what that might look like:

Pedro Avila --- could be replaced by Carlos Carrasco

Thoughts: Look, Avila was good at what he did, but so would have Xzavion Curry have been and we DFA'd him.  Carrasco brings a good clubhouse presence, significant playoff experience, some relief experience, could perform better in short stints AND, as he nears the end of his career, is more incentivized and more likely, based on his experience, to be successful.

Scott Barlow --- Could be replaced by Franco Aleman

Thoughts:  Look, we know nothing about Aleman.   But we do know a lot about Barlow.  He is not effective in the regular season.  Replacing Barlow with someone else who has ANY chance of being effective in the post-season, based on his stuff AND the fact that the league doesn't know him, is worth considering.  

Eli Morgan --- Could be replaced by Erik Sabrowski

Thoughts: The idea of replacing a solid, innings-eating reliever with a rookie lefty with 2 games of experience is a wild concept.  But consider that Morgan would only be used when we need bridge innings from a short start to the end of the bullpen.  Losing Hentges was a blow but having a second lefty, one who would be solid vs LH batters, and better than Morgan, would be an interesting and gutsy play by Vogt.  There is no real reason to replace Morgan but if we can gain a slight advantage, maybe we should do it.

Nick Sandlin --- Replace with Andrew Walters

Thoughts: This is crazy.  Although Sandlin is a familiar whipping boy of the X crowd, his numbers, like those of Morgan, are freaking solid.  The only reason for this would be that Walters appears more of a shutdown reliever who can give you a solid inning.  No indication that Walters can be a Sandlin-like fireman, coming in the middle of innings to shut down a rally.  In fact, his command tends to indicate that he would be ineffective in that role.  So I think Sandlin is safe

Ben Lively --- Replace with Nic Enright, Sabrowski or Walters.

Thoughts:  Lively appears tired and replacing him in the wildcard round or the ALDS series, as those are short series, is a possible move to give Vogt extra guys who have pitched in the bullpen all year.

If the Guardians plan to do anything above they need to get guys up here and get their feet wet in the majors in the next couple of weeks to see if they could even be effective in MLB.   They have already done that with Sabrowski.  Now its time to look at the other guys.  

UPDATE - After I posted this I noted that Barlow has been DFA'd by the Guardians today.  Shocking!  But maybe they knew he had no role with the team the rest of the way and wanted to give his replacement extra time to get acclimated to a ML relief role and, if he is claimed, save a little money on a guy they don't have a role for right now.  Apparently they have recalled Anthony Gose AGAIN.  

TIME FOR SOME REINFORCEMENTS?

Following on the bullpen theme above, the ML rule is that if you send a guy to the minors, he has to be recalled within 20 days to avoid using up one of his minor league options.  Well, today is September 8th and the regular season ends on Sept. 29th.  So we are approaching the time where we can send someone to Columbus and recall him in time for the last series of the season against Houston without using an option.  

As Brennan and Freeman have not been optioned to Columbus this year AND are having trouble getting playing time, it might make sense to option them for 19 days and bring up Rodriguez and Valera.  Maybe the latter 2 can provide a spark like Schneeman and Noel did when they came up.  If not, we just swap them out for the last series and nothing is lost.  Plus, with Columbus having two more series and likely to make the playoffs, both Brennan and Freeman will be able to get plenty of ABs.  

If Rodriguez and Valera look good we would have, minimally, improved their trade value and possibly given the FO other options for the post-season roster as neither Freeman nor Brennan have playoff experience.  

Anyone who wonders about the value of an unknown quantity in the post-season, all you have to do is remember Evan Carter's value to Texas last post-season.

Again, however, if the team is going to do this it would be great if they did it starting in the White Sox series on Monday.  

We'll see.  The FO has not been very proactive in these situations this year.  Let's hope they are willing to take some gambles here as the offense is still not clicking and could use a spark.