Thoughts For A Monday - Mid September Version - The Most Important Series of the Year - Part Deux And Other Topics

 Halfway through September and here we are.  The most important series of the year...again

Magic Numbers

12 games to go

To make the playoffs as the 3rd wildcard team:  3 (Detroit and Seattle)

To win the AL Central: 9 (KC)

To get the #2 overall seed: 9 (Houston) - if Cleveland wins the AL Central

Minnesota Series

Three weeks ago I would have thought this series would have been a crucial matchup between 2 teams battling for the AL Central championship.  However, Minnesota has gone 7-12 while the Tigers have gone 12-7.  This means that Minnesota is battling for their playoff lives, currently bient only 2.5 games ahead of Detroit for the last playoff spot.

But none of that really matters.  This series is against AL Central rivals with playoff implications for both teams.  This series matters, it is critical to us reach the above magic numbers (and as quickly as possible) and so, like every series at this time of year, is a crucial one.

We clearly need to hit better than we did against the White Sox and Tampa Bay, especially in the clutch, especially with 2 outs in the clutch.

We need to continue to get good starting pitching and good bullpen support.

We need to continue to play aggressive baseball and good-to-great defense.

We need to get our fair share of luck.

This is playoff baseball.  Let's gooooooo!  Any delay in pushing towards attaining these magic numbers adds extra stress that is not really needed at this time of year, especially given the razor-thin line we currently have between us winning and not winning.

Roster Moves?

Let's look at what has been made and what moves still could be made.  As we look at this list note that I have 2 premises for bringing a guy up:

• Michael Martinez premise - Would I rather see a guy walk to the plate (or to the mound) in the 10th inning of a WS game 7 with the game on the line compared to how I felt in 2016 when Martinez was our last hope?
• Does the guy we bring up have a good chance to add to our anemic offense or to support our pitching staff in the remainder of the regular season.  Put another way, would he increase our chances of winning ballgames over the guy we replace him with?

Angel Martinez up and Tyler Freeman down -  One of the moves I was asking the Guardians to make has been made. Freeman just wasn't helping this team right now.  Martinez may not help more than Freeman but it was time to make a change and see if he can.  We can always go back to Freeman if he gets hot in Columbus.  Note that Freeman's demotion likely WON'T cost us burning on of his option years as he shouldn't exceed 20 optioned days in the minors before the end of the regular season.

Andrew Walters up and Scott Barlow released - While this seems like a strange time to release Barlow, it is clear he had little to no role in the bullpen if Cleveland makes the playoffs.  It was scary to think of him in a tie game in the deciding game of the playoffs.  So this move was very pragmatic.  Walters adds another power arm to the bullpen and we are not married to him being on the the playoff roster. Even if he doesn't make the playoff roster we don't burn an option with him this year as options are only used if a player spends more than 20 days in the minors during the season.  As there are only 14 days left in the season, even if Walters was sent down today they don't burn one of his option years.

Erik Sabrowski - Another Walters-like promotion, Sabrowski is being tried out as the 2nd lefty in the pen with Hentges out for the season.  It has worked so far due to Sabrowski's stuff, experience and the league's unfamiliarity with him.

James Karinchak - I really believe time has run out on him this year unless we get to the ALCS and someone is injured.  Still, he is pitching leverage innings in Columbus and they could be playing as late as September 28th so he could get a lot of work in between now and the end of the regular season.  He could be a factor, although I am sure some fans would call using Karinchak vs using Barlow in the playoffs  (10 inning of game 7 criteria) being a toss-up in terms of scariness.

Franco Aleman - For those of us wanting to call him up just for a look, he hasn't pitched in 10 days so I doubt he will be playable this post-season...or maybe even during the regular season.  So while I see him rostered this winter if he hasn't had arm surgery before November, I doubt he will play in the majors this year.  Let's hope Aleman is healthy and can be a factor next year and, therefore, can be rostered this winter.  If he has arm surgery before the roster freeze in November, given the number of guys on the 40-man who won't be ready for ST next year, I doubt they waste a roster spot on Aleman.

Jonathon Rodriguez for Will Brennan - For those who want to see this happen, note that Brennan has already used up half of his minor league days (10 of 20).  Anything greater than 20 days in the minors after being optioned in a year will result in burning one of his option years.  If a move like this is going to happen, and I think it should since Brennan is not impacting the ball and has not changed his hitting profile at all to help be more productive for this team, it would have to happen no earlier than this Friday.  I want to see this happen so that Brennan can get regular at-bats if we plan to roster him for the playoffs but I also want to see a hot JRod get some reps in the majors before the playoffs if we plan to roster him.

Juan Brito - Man, I would love to see Brito up because, along with Martinez, he would give us more flexibility in combatting both LHP and RHP without doing platooning.  I just don't see a spot for him unless you send Manzardo down and Brito can DH.   Plus, while he is better against RHP than he was early in the season, his overall numbers don't scream bringing him up in the middle of the pennant race.

Carlos Carrasco for Pedro Avila - The average fan will not like this but I feel that this is a necessary move for the clubhouse in the playoffs.  Just like Hedges, Carrasco adds some intangibles and, if he can be effective in the role we targeted for him when we signed him, bulk reliever/swingman, then his clubhouse presence outweighs any value Avila has.  Bulk relievers are not that necessary in a short series as you try to win EVERY game and living to play another day rested has to be the least imprtant thing.  I don't know if keeping a bulk reliever is in the cards but, if it is, my vote goes to Carrasco...if we can get him significant relief innings before the end of the year.

So, lots of moves that COULD be made.  Whether any are actually made or the FO and Vogt decide to just play the status quo, we will see.  But the Guardians' status quo will likely not be enough to win in the playoffs and, even if it does win, is certainly NOT putting your best foot forward.