A prime example

Just checking the ML stats and noticed that former Indians' minor leaguer Jose Constanza is solidfying his role in the majors with Atlanta. 

Has he changed from when he was with the Indians?  Absolutely not.  He is hitting the same way he did in the Indians' farm system.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Jose-Constanza

The difference? He is just getting a chance.

And that's the point, really.  He's getting a chance.

While I like Ezequiel Carrera, I think Constanza is as good or better of a prospect.  He is performing well in a pennant race, hitting .413 with likely more HRs (one) than Carrera will ever hit in the majors.   So if you want to assume they are similar players, that's a reasonable assumption.  The problem is that the Indians never gave Constanza a chance to prove himself in losing seasons where the cost, if he failed, was low in terms of team success. Atlanta is giving him that chance,  in a pressure situation in a pennant race, and he is repsonding.

Fast forward to 2011.  We have pathetic AAAA guys like Kearns, Hannahan, Duncan, Durbin, etc. still on our roster.  We have Joe Smith who is a trade candidate.   We have roster spots available.

And, in AAA, we have right-handed hitting outfielders and infielders who have some potential (Hearns and Goedert, although Goedert is more about streakiness) and we have MANY relief pitchers who are ready. 

But we don't give them a chance.  We have repeatedly over the years dissed our minor leaguers for AAAA guys and washed up veterans.  Some of those guys (OCab and Kearns, 2010 model) have netted us decent returns in deadline deals but the others have just sucked resources from the Indians and blocked minor leaguers getting their Constanza-like chances. 

So, let's let the Jose Constanzas of the world be contributors to other teams' pennant races and let's keep bringing in AAAA guys to staff our bench.  Yeah, that makes sense and it has worked soooooo well in the recent past.

There is certainly no future in AAAA guys while Constanza has some upside.  And now we are determining what I have known for a long time, that, many times, the present for a poorly scouted rookie is also better than the present for a washed up AAAA guy. 

Future maybe better, present better.  Check.

We should have brought up Head, Goedert, Judy and Putnam (or Chen) when I suggested.  We should have traded Joe Smith. 

When will we stop making these kinds of mistakes and have the guts (albeit potentially ill-placed guts, time will tell) that Antonetti had in obtaining Jimenez?

Joe Smith, what could have been

We should have traded Joe Smith in July.  His value was the highest of his career and, most likely, the highest value in his entire ML life, no matter how long that is.  C'mon, if we wanted a side-arming righty we had Chen Lee who is banging on the door. 

Now Smith has exploded a 5-0 lead, his second outing in the last 3 when he has given up a run.  His value has certainly shrunk to 2010 levels, meaning he is worthless, as, at this time of the year, it is all about what have you done lately that determines trade value..

They should have traded him on July 31st when his ERA was 1.10.  His value was high but the Indians obviously thought he was important.  He could have brought a piece back that meant something.  Instead, now we will live with this performance.

He should have brought us back Allen Craig.  Instead, he brought us a loss tonight and, given his recent outings, may continue to help in the Indians fall in the Central Division. 

When you choke and don't pull the trigger on an obvious sell high move, this is what you end up with.  I shake my head, shrug my shoulders and roll my eyes.  THIS is the Cleveland Indians I grew up with in the 70s and 80s.

BTW, it is August 7th, Jerad Head is still in Columbus and Austin Kearns is still in Cleveland.  (Continues head shaking, eye rolling and shoulder shrugging).

Takes a lickin' and keeps on tickin'

Chris Perez and the Indians are still alive, barelystaying over the Atlanta Braves Line. 

BTW, in case anyone is watching, Jerad Head with two doubles and a HR tonight.  Hey, I haven't checked, but is Austin Kearns still on the Indians' roster.  Cleveland, which is notorious for not giving minor leaguers a chance unless they are stud prospects and there are no other options (see Chris Coste as the prime example but everyone from Brian Giles to Ryan Church and even Jeremy Guthrie and Brandon Phillips who got small chances but not enough and IMMEDIATELY flourished elsewhere), will either wait until Head grows cold or until September to give him a chance while Mr. RBI (really bad and an idiot) continues to occupy a spot on our bench.  As always, great PR by the Indians for their minor leaguers.  Hey, I notice you brought back Argenis Reyes.  Maybe they will give him a shot first.

At the crossroads

Well, it seems almost daily that we have to make a decision on whether we are buyers or sellers.  So let's take a look:

Buyer: Allen Craig went 3-3 last night deep into his rehab.  He should be brought up soon.  This makes him our prime trade target.  Again, I think Joe Smith would do it for a 27 year old who doesn't have a defensive position he is good at and isn't really needed by his current team.  He is a bat first guy but, on this team, that is what is needed.  Maybe we throw Shelly Duncan in as he is more valuable in the NL than the AL, IMO.

Seller: Kearns, Durbin and Hannahan should be gone, Shelly Duncan should be traded and Herrmann should be sent down.   We have covered that.  Judy, Chen (or Putnam), Head and Goedert should come up.  One of the funniest things I read on a forum today is when someone tried to minimize Judy by calling him a "C" prospect.  Comical and somewhat pathetic, actually.  He is much more than that, being Pestano-like with more consistency right now.  Not a closer yet but a guy with solid 8th inning skills.

So, in our daily visit at the crossroads, we are just where we were a month ago: buyers of younger guys, sellers of older guys, and bringers up of minor league guys who are ready for a shot instead of mortgaging the future for a run at the pennant that could be staffed in-house.

Well, that was crushing!

The Indians loss to Texas tonight was the most crushing of the season.  I know other losses have been bad but, with Detroit winning and the Indians losing two walkoffs in Boston and Jimenez looking pretty human instead of looking like an ace AFTER we had to wait for him to pitch an extra five days or so, this loss was the worst of the season, especially when we led 6-1 and 7-2 with our new ace on the mound.  Yeah, he was pitching out of his normal rotation so we can cut him so slack.  But, still, it brings up all the questions about whether he is regressing to the mean or is hurting. 

And bringing up Shelly Duncan?  Unless it is to showcase him in a trade with Joe Smith to get a decent prospect, Jerad Head, who, BTW, hit HIS 20th HR tonight, should have been called up.  Duncan and Joe Smith should be traded.

BTW, Jared Goedert had two more hits tonight and remains hot.  He should be up here right now to provide some offense.

It's August 4th and.....

...the Indians are about to cross the Atlanta Braves Line. What is the Atlanta Braves Line, you ask?  Well, we have the Mendoza line for hitters (below .200 for a really bad hitter.  I thought I would create a line for mediocrity and, for that matter, the ability to contend for a playoff spot (I don't believe any team in baseball has ever made the playoffs with a losing record).  Well, some early morning looking led me to find out that, all-time, the Atlanta Braves, in 20,011 games, are 10.009 and 10,002.  Thus they are the penultimate .500 team.  Others are close but no other franchise has this middle of the road covered like Atlanta does, not even the Indians.  Well, the Indians, on the season, now stand at 54-54 and are on the edge of dropping below the Atlanta Braves line for the 2011 season for the first time since the first couple of games in April.   Oh, BTW, if the season ended today the Indians would have the 16th worst record in baseball (currently tied for 16th worst with the Mets and and the Marlins but the Indians get the nod due to their worse record last year).  That means, if the season ended right now AND if, this coming off-season, they signed a Type A free agent who had been offered arbitration, they would have to give up their first round draft pick.  Note that if they move 'up' to the 15th worst record and the same scenario applied, they would only have to give up their second round draft pick, which, last year,  was the 75th overall pick.  Biiiiiig difference.  Not sayin', just sayin'.

...Austin Kearns, Chad Durbin and Jack Hannahan are still with the Cleveland Indians.   In the meantime Jerad Head's hit homeruns in 4 straight games. Not to say he would have done that in Cleveland but the point is that he is hot right now so whatever production we could optimistically expect from Jerad Head, he is most likely to give it to us right about now.  In addition, Putnam, Chen and Judy are pitching well and Jared Goedert's numbers keep steadily heading north.

...Joe Smith is still a member of the Cleveland Indians.  Look, compete or not compete, Joe Smith is not going to be a difference maker.  But if you thought Orlando Cabrera brought a good return, I think Joe Smith can bring a better return.  Truly we need to trade this guy right now.  He has never had more value and is eminently replaceable as he slots into a strength in the Indians' system.  TRADE JOE SMITH.  If you can trade him for Allen Craig of the Cardinals (the guy I have been on for over two months) do it now!  It will be a deal that makes a huge positive difference for the Indians in the next two years.

---the Indians are starting to sign low round draft choices for pretty good money (Ryan Merritt, JUCO kid with mediocre JUCO stats, for $150,000).  This is pretty scary to me, actually.  While I LOVE signing draft choices the Indians did not put themselves in a position to sign lower round choices who have high upside.  After the excellent selections of Francis Lindor and Dillon Howard, both of whom are high upside guys who, as HS players, have an inherently HUGE chance to crash and burn, (read: typical high risk, high reward prospects) the Indians went for lowly rated (read: CHEAP) prospects for most of the rest of the draft.  To put it in perspective, after the second round, their best draft prospect is a kid named Dillon Peters who they selected in the 20th round.  Mr. Peters is a highly rated left-handed HS pitcher from Indianapolis who dropped in the draft due to signability issues.  Sounds good so far, right?  The problem is that he is listed by the MLB and other websites as 5'9" and close to 200 pounds (some sites do list him as tall as 5'11").  Now, that sounds more like the nose guard on my HS football team when I was a kid than any pitching prospect that I have ever heard of.  Yet he is highly rated (#104 by Baseball America) and fan forumites from various Indians' fan forums around the world are excited by this kid.  Well, so am I.  However, the Indians could have, and should have, drafted a dozen guys with the potential of Dillon Peters or even better before they got to Peters on whom they could shower money once they found out that most of their stud pitching riches in the minors walked out the door when Jimenez walked in.  Those guys were certainly out there.  So, now, in losing Pomeranz and White I think they are saying, 'OMG, our farm system took a big hit and now we need to re-stock'.  Well, guys, you didn't draft to do put yourselves in a position to do that, the same thing that happened in 2008 and back in 2001 when, not being able to sign Alan Horne for $1 million plus, they spread that money around on three lower round, "C" rated picks who never came close to panning out.  Face it, Indians, you ALWAYS draft for this type of scenario.  If you can't sign the stud prospects later in the draft, fine.  But drafting low end guys and guys with huge question marks and then overpaying for them the way you did in 2008...just throwing good money at very questionable prospects for the sake of spending money. 

So sign Mr. Peters, please do.  Every prospect helps and heaven knows he is BY FAR the best of the prospects from this draft after our first two picks.  I am just saying that, whoever they sign after Lindor and Howard, they will have to WAY, WAY overpay for and will not likely get good value from...just in the name of  'Let's sign SOMEBODY'.

Ubaldo trade recap

Well, it has all begun to sink in.  We have Ubaldo Jimenez.  Here is my take:

·         Ubaldo is an ace.  Face it, people, if healthy this guy will be better than any pitcher the Indians have had in the last 10 years NOT named CC Sabathia.  Yes, better than Cliff Lee even in his Cy Young year!

·         Drew Pomeranz has command issues.  Face it, it was the knock on him when he was drafted and he still has them. 

·         Alex White has a bad finger and it was never clear he was going to be able to stay as a starter in the big leagues.

·         Matt McBride is old and hasn’t proven he can hit in AAA.  If he changes some things he may, yet, be a B prospect.

·         Joe Gardner had a flash-in-the-pan year last year and, while he is the sleeper of the deal and I would have LOVED to (and think we should have) gotten a similar sleeper back, we obviously decided to include him.

I am a prospect guy and this trade works for me EXCEPT for one aspect:

I really, really, really believe that if you are going to do a deal like this you need to understand all aspects of it.  I don’t believe Antonetti did.  In an interview after the trade he said that he was going to have to contact MLB about the nature of the option in terms of timeframe for Jimenez to say that he wasn’t going to allow the Indians to pick up that option.  I mean, shouldn’t you KNOW this?  Also, shouldn’t you at least have inquired about whether you could talk to Ubaldo about him waiving his right to void this out in the contract BEFORE you traded for him?

You see, most fans now understand that this is all about “THE WINDOW”.   You get your players together and you go for it when you feel you have the critical mass of talent to compete for the playoffs and post-season success.   2 ½ years of Ubaldo gives us a much narrower window than you would think and, although mathematically it doesn’t make sense, 3 ½ years is a MUCH bigger window.  You see, if you have great talent you might have one bad year with injuries out of three.  You might have one year where you are knocked out by some upstart team that has all its stars aligned and that should happen, at the most, one out of 4 years.    So, on average, even if everything conspires against you, if your talent is the best in your division you should be able to make the playoffs once every 3 years, minimum, twice out of 3 years some of the time, and every one of three consecutive years infrequently...unless you change those odds by adding new pieces to change the balance once again.  The Indians did this in the 90s, constantly changing the balance until they ran out of resources (i.e., they maxed out their payroll and emptied their farm system because they didn't pay enough attention to keeping that system stocked with stud prospects).  Their only flaw was not having a backup plan (no pipeline of minor leaguers, no exit plan for aging veterans by using deadline deals to re-stock their farm system), which they could have easily done if they had just spent a few more million on the draft each year.  Let's hope they learn their lesson this time.  Now, back to the topic at hand..

If you discount this year the Indians are asking for their talent to win for them at least once and maybe twice in two years.  The odds are against that happening, even if they had all the talent they need.

And they don’t.  Their offense is WOEFUL.  They have done nothing to address that.  And what makes people think that Grady is not now a .220 hitter?  I harken back to Mark McGwire, whose leg problems knocked him out of baseball and his saying, ‘When you don’t have a foundation (read: solid legs), you can’t hit.’   Maybe Grady comes back strong next year, maybe not.  Choo should be solid next year and Brantley, Chisenhall and Kipnis should settle in.  However, NONE of those guys hit righthanded.  We need to address that issue.

We have all of about two weeks to address it for this year and then it is all up to chance after that…unless we do something amazing in the off-season and unless Jimenez wants his option picked up.

Crazy, you say?  Maybe, but it's something to think about, isn't it?