Shadow Draft Verson 2 - Mirroring the Indians' strategy

OK, the Indians had an interesting strategy that is being widely rated as among the top in baseball.  But what if they evaluate wrong.  Here is an alternate draft that I think is cheaper and fills some needs while, at the same time, might be stronger

1st round - Victor Roache - OF - Georgia Southern
2nd round - Mitch Brown - RHP - HS Minnesota
3rd round - Kieran Lovegrove - RHP - HS California
4th round - D'Vone McClure - OF - HS Arkansas
5th round - Dylan Baker - RHP - Western Nevade JC
6th round - Michael Roth - RHP - South Carolina (Sr.)
7th round - Josh Schubert-McAdams - OF - HS Georgia
8th round - Taylor Dugas OF - Alabama (Sr.)
9th round - Jacob Lee RHP - Arkansas State (Sr.)
10th round - Josh Martin RHP - Samford (Sr.)
11th round - Logan Vick OF - Baylor
12th round - Jeremy Lucas C - Indiana State
13th round - Sam Stafford RHP - Texas (Sr.)
14th round - Matt Reckling RHP - Rice (Sr.)
15th round  - Nelson Rodriguez 1B - HS NY
16th round - Cody Penny RHP - North Carolina
17th round - Andrew Calica OF - HS California

The rest of my picks will be the same as the Indians.  This draft brings in Dugas, Stafford, Reckling and Roth, all of whom, along with Lee and Martin, could be cheap and it still brings most of the risky picks the Indians want.  I still contend that Roache could have been signed to a below slot deal, maybe cheaper than Naquin, giving the Indians more money to sign Brown and the other HS picks (including Corey Raley) who will require above slot bonuses

Shadow Draft - Version 1 - Dennis' strategy

As part of my annual draft analysis I like to do a shadow draft.  That is, given who was available, I pick who I would have drafted.  This year, I wanted to add a little twist.  Here is the first of two shadow drafts, this one using my pre-draft strategy and one using the Indians' strategy. 

1st round -  Ty Hensley, RHP, HS Oklahoma  (BA Ranking - 23; I flip-flopped at the last minute hearing McCullers is a tough sign assuming Hensley will sign for slot)
2nd round - Adam Brett Walker, 1B, Jacksonville (Ranking- 58)
3rd round -  Mac Williamson, OF Wake Forest (Sr. 236)
4th round - Ty Buttrey RHP HS Charlotte (38)
5th round - Robert Benincasa, RHP Miami (216)
6th round - Beau Amaral, OF, UCLA (191)
7th round - Kris Hall, RHP, Lee (134)
8th round - Michael Roth, RHP, South Carolina (Sr. 300)
9th round - Jacob Lee, RHP, Arkansas State (Sr. 307)
10th round - Kevin Brady, RHP, Clemson (Sr, 327)
11th round - Logan Vick, OF, Baylor (259)
12th round - Jeremy Lucas, C, Indiana State (264)
13th round - Sam Stafford, RHP, Texas (Not ranked - Injured entire year)
14th round - Andrew Calica, OF, HS California (173)
15th round -  Ronnie Richardson, OF, Central Florida (233)
16th round - Cody Penny, RHP, North Carolina (Not ranked)
17th round - Louis Head, RHP, Texas State (Not ranked)
18th round - Jeremy Schaffer, 1B, Tulane (361)
19th round -  Colyn O'Connell, RHP, HS Florida (Not ranked)
20th round - Nick Pasquale, RHP, Diablo Valley CC (Not ranked)
21st round - Joe Sever, 2B, Pepperdine (431)
22nd round - Patrick Blair, SS, Wake Forest (Not ranked)
23rd round - Richard Stock, C/1B, Nebraska (451)
24th round -  Jose Mesa Jr. RHP, HS Florida (Not ranked)
25th round - Cameron Cox, RHP, Weatherford JC (375)
26th round - Jimmy Rider, SS Kent State (Sr. Not ranked)
27th round - Justin Gonzalez, SS, Florida State (441)
28th round - Josh Pigg 3B/RHP HS, California (Not ranked)
29th round - Randall Fant LHP Arkansas (440)
30th round - Josh Lester SS - HS Georgia (Not ranked)
31st round - Andrew Potter RHP - HS California (359)
32nd round - Paul Hendrix SS - Howard CC (Not ranked)
33rd round -  Corey Raley SS - HS Texas (158)
34th round - Pedro Pizarro C - HS Lousiana (Not ranked)
35th round - Nick Hamilton SS - Kent State (Not ranked)
36th round - Benny Suarez RHP - Hill JC (Not ranked)
37th round - Adam Ford SS - HS Tennessee (Not ranked)
38th round - Joshua Nervis RHP - Sonoma State (Not ranked)
39th round - DJ Brown RHP - James Madison (Not ranked)
40th round - Anthony Hawkins OF - HS California (363)

OK, there it is.  My draft leads the ML in Baseball America top 500 guys drafted with 23.    Now we will see who signs and how they do.

Post-draft analysis of the 2012 Indians' draft

The Indians completed an interesting draft on Wednesday.  Here are some numbers and comments:

·         By Baseball America's count the Indians drafted 17 players from BA's top 500 draft prospects.  This placed them in a tie for 5^th in the major leagues with all the teams drafting more top 500 guys being teams with extra picks in the first 3 rounds

·         Tyler Naquin.  He is not projected as an impact prospect as he projects to have only 3 above average tools (hit for average, throw and speed).  He had to be drafted to save money for later picks. 

·         Mitch Brown (2nd round) will probably be a tough sign, requiring up to $300,000 over slot.  He also was a late comer not being ranked highly this spring. 

·         Kieran Lovegrove is a HS pitcher who was a slight overdraft, should sign for slot and projects to be a decent but not great prospect

·          4th rounder D'Vone McClure, 5th rounder Dylan Baker and 7th rounder Josh Schubert-McAdams, might require overslot bonuses that could total $250,000 over slot. 

·         The Indians drafted 3 college seniors, Joe Wendle, Jacob Lee and Josh Martin in the first 10 rounds which should save them roughly $400,000 of their  $4,582,900 allotted budget to sign players in the first 10 rounds.  This extra money can be applied to overslot bonuses.   

·         In later rounds the Indians took flyers on Andrew Calica (17th round, ranked 173, drafted with the 533rd pick) and Corey Raley (33rd, 158, 1013).  Both should require bonuses over the $100,000 limit for those draft slots, maybe up to $500,000 combined over slot. 

·         Later round picks of note who may sign for $100,000 are Logan Vick (11th , 259, 353), Jeremy Lucas (12th, 264, 383), Joe Sever (21st, 431, 653), Richard Stock (23rd, 451, 713), Cameron Cox (25th, 375, 773), Randall Fant (29th, 440, 893) Matt Fultz (34th, 395, 1043) and Anthony Hawkins (40th, 363, 1223).  Signing each of these guys would require at least $25,000 to $50,000 over slot meaning, to sign all of these guys we would need to find another $250,000 savings in our budget.

Analysis:  

(EDIT: I mean, and should have said, that, overall, based on the available talent pool, that I like this draft on paper.  However, I see the overall talent pool as weak and, like the draft in 2000, I would have gone for it in the first round as I think this draft has a chance to be a one-and-done draft, i.e., what impact (all-star and top-line regulars) talent existed was only in the first round and there wasn't even much of it in THAT round so if you get a chance to 'go for the gold' you go for it in the first round. That being said, if the Indians thought there was no impact talent left at 15, their strategy was REALLY solid for their evaluation process)  Talent-wise.the Indians drafted a bunch of GOOD prospects but not even one great prospect.  Hey, an astute (and lucky) team with good player development can get impact players from later rounds.  Grady Sizemore, Kenny Lofton, Cliff Lee, Travis Hafner, Albert Belle and others were all drafted after the first round.  However, the Indians, historically in the draft, don’t appear to be very astute nor do they appear to possess a good player development program.  Thus, if they sign these players, they look like guys who would populate, eventually, the 6^th through 15^th slots on future Indians’ top 30 prospect lists.  That is, guys who project to be solid major leaguers to role players but no potential all-stars.  Things can change but that’s what it looks like now…IF they can sign these guys.

Financially, the Indians have issues with this draft.  While they saved $400,000 on the 3 college seniors and may add $100,000 savings on Naquin, that money won’t go very far.   Mitch Brown appears a tough sign and they may have to use most of it to up his slotted bonus of $639,700 to closer to the $1 million it may take to sign him.  If that happens they will have little to no extra money to sign McClure, Baker, Calica and Raley.  In fact, guys like Vick, Lucas, Hawkins, Sever, Cox, Fant and Fultz may not sign as it is doubtful we can get them for $100,000.  I would project that we would need a $750,000 savings under slot from our 3 college seniors plus Naquin to even have a chance to sign all of our first 10 picks and another $300,000 savings to be able to sign Calica and Raley.   Add another $250,000 for Vick, et al and you are looking at finding $1.3 million to sign all of our good prospects, if you only consider the BA-ranked prospects.

So, overall, the Indians had an intriguing draft which could be VERY good, depth-wise (not impact-wise), if they sign their first 10 picks plus Calica and Raley.  As you start to remove guys because you won’t have the budget to sign them this draft could quickly move to average or even below average.  That is not acceptable for a small market team with the 15^th slot in the draft.   Let’s hope the Indians are ‘cap’ geniuses and can sign all these guys.  Otherwise, it just adds to the length of time before we are competitive again.  If you add more,, lower-ranked prospects you don't increase the  overall quality depth much but you give yourself a much better chance that some guy would over-achieve who was only a middling draft prospect like Vick, et al. 

Next I will post two shadow drafts: One they way I would have drafted it and one, using the Indians selection methodology, that I think would have turned out better.

Draft so far

Let's go over what has happened so far.

• There was a run on college seniors in the second half of the top 10 rounds.  Teams like Toronto, New York and Boston took their share with Toronto taking college seniors in rounds 4-10. This is what I said the Indians should do, drafting cheap guys in rounds 6-10.  Instead, the Indians took only two college seniors.
• A number of teams took flyers on guys in rounds 11-15, understanding that by drafting sure sign guys in the back half of the first 10 rounds they might have some money left over to sign these guys.  The Indians didn't draft any high profile players in these rounds, instead focusing on relative unknowns who didn't rank in Baseball America's top 500 prospects.
• The Indians took guys who COULD be tough signs (HS and JUCO guys) in rounds 2-5.  This makes little sense as, unless they know these guys will sign for slot or below, there is very little way that with $4.5 million in their budget that they can sign all these guys.  Plus, that budget goes down by the slot of the draft pick if they fail to sign one or more of these guys. 

I'll crunch the numbers later today but by my calculation the Indians could wind up over $5 million or 10% over slot if things work out.  This would cost them $500,000 and loss of their first draft pick over the next two years.  Unless some of these HS and JUCO guys after the first two rounds had under slot deals in place, we could be in trouble as I think Brown might cost us $500,000 more than slot.   We will make up $200,000 with Wendle and Lee but, looking at the rest of the guys, including Naquin, I don't see how we make up that other $300,000 and, in fact, we may actually LOSE ground Lovegrove, Baker, McClure, McAdams and Hamrick want anything over slot. 

It also says that we will be drafting very lightly from here on out with few or no flyer picks.  We also have lost the opportunity to get quality college seniors as an inordinantly high number of them have already been selected.

Let's hope the Indians' draft strategy works.  It's not like they have a history of being thought leaders in how to conduct a draft so my hope is tempered by history.

Kieran Lovegrove and shadow draft

Another HS pitcher.  Not a bad trend by the Indians.  He was ranked 131st by Baseball America so not a steal at pick this spot.  I think he might be willing to sign given that he has his own foundation that thisMore later.

A word about my shadow draft.   Every year I do this where I pick the players I would have selected at each spot the Indians picked.   I will have more on this tonight but my shadow draft, following my pre-draft strategy is:

1. Lance McCullers Jr.  - RHP -  my HS flyer pick
2. Adam Brett Walker - 1B -  my college power hitter
3. Pete O'Brien C - my college senior pick designed to save money by going way under slot

Mitch Brown

I will have a more in depth analysis later tonight.  Here are some initial thoughts

• The kid is going to be a tough sign.  He says that it is going to take something special to sway him away from college.  So, are we to now assume that Naquin is going to get below slot on a take it or leave it offer?
• I think he was a fast riser this year meaning that I couldn't find him on top 100 lists from this winter/early spring.  That is always a watchout for me.
• He is, to me, Dan Denham or Adam Miller again.  Both those kids looked good out of HS.  One couldn't get his pitching together, one couldn't stay healthy. 

The stuff and attitude is there for this kid, now can we get him signed and can he reach his potential and, if he has just come on this year, is he a flash in the pan?  These are the questions to be answered.

On paper, not a bad selection.  Lots of risk, lots of upside.  That is what scouts and scouting directors get paid for..

Bad is almost always bad. Good is sometimes good.

Lots of traffic on various boards about how Tyler Naquin was a bad selection.  Obviously, from the post below, I didn't like it, either. 

People say the draft is a crapshoot.  To some extent they are correct.  There is so much projection for HS players who can have their careers derailed by injury, lack of work ethic, lack of athleticisim which, for the most part, means lack of being able to make changes to their game, etc.  For college players, it should be less projection.

My history with the draft, which goes back over 20 years, tells me that an early round draft pick that looks bad is probably bad but that an early round draft pick that looks good may not turn out that way.

I said Naquin was not nearly the best talent left when he was selected.  Not even close.  Looking back over the Indians' drafts of the last 20 years and looking at guys who were first round or high supplemental first round picks I see their selections falling in two classes: overdrafts (guys who were not nearly the best talents available when they were drafted) and solid picks (guys who were arguably the best talent when they were drafted).  Here is a look at those lists.

Overdrafts: Other Indians' first round picks that felt to me like the Naquin pick are:  David Miller (1995), Danny Peoples (1996), Tim Drew (1997), Wil Hartley (1999 - actually a second rounder), Mike Conroy (2001), Brad Snyder (2003), Trevor Crowe (2005), Beau Mills (2007), Lonnie Chisenhall (2008 - due to his criminal history and the fact he was a tweener without the power for a corner IF or OF spot but without the defense to be at SS or 2B.), Tyler Naquin (2012).

Solid picks: Former Indians' first round picks that sounded good to me at the time included: Manny Ramirez (1991), Paul Shuey (1992), Daron Kirkreit (1993), Jaret Wright (1994), CC Sabathia (1998), Corey Smith (2000), Dan Denham, JD Martin, Alan Horne (2001), Jeremy Guthrie (2002), Matt Whitney (2002), Michael Aubrey (2003), Adam Miller, (2003), John Drennen (2005), David Huff (2006), Alex White (2009), Drew Pomeranz (2010), Franciso Lindor (2011).

These were my assessments AT THE TIME THEY WERE DRAFTED, based a lot on player rankings at the time of the draft.  I wasn't always right, partly because guys develop differently or get hurt.  But what is striking about these two lists is how many of the guys who appeared to be clear overdrafts at the moment they were drafted never worked out, most of them being exposed in the low or middle minors as guys with no chance to play in the big leagues.   Only one guy, Chisenhall, has a chance to have a decent ML career and his power at 3B still remains questionable. On the solid pick list many of these guys played in the majors extensively with Kirkreit, Whitney, Miller, Aubrey and Horne (inuries) and Smith, Denham, Martin and Drennen didn't work out, with only Martin playing in the majors at all.   Most were HS kids.

We could do the same exercise for lower rounds where, for me, the only overdraft that has even come close to working out better than their talent would have predicted is Cord Phelps. 
Tyler Naquin, a tweener outfielder who will get to the majors just about the time we reach a deadpoint in our talent flow (see my earlier post), was a bad pick when he was made.  Not a bad player who will never make the majors but not nearly the best talent available at that point.  All the evidence shows this and it is generally agreed that this is the case.  Given the above history, what do you think the chances are that he will surprise us all and have a great ML career?

Now on to day 2.  I hope the Indians have a plan that makes the Naquin pick look better from a strategic sense (e.g., saving money for later picks, a position change for him, something).  Time will tell.

Tyler Naquin, huh?

So the Indians draft a college outfielder without much power.  Shades of Trevor Crowe.

Positives:

he hits for average (.380)

he steals some bases (21-26)

Question Marks:

He is supposed to have a great arm (but only has 2 assists all season)

He may be able to take a walk, but only has one walk in every 10 ABs in college this year.

It is questionable whether he can play CF

Negatives

He doesn't seem to show any power

Analysis: In the first round you draft guys with the potential to be franchise players.  A guy with questionable power, who may not have the ability to stay in center field, not blazing speed doesn't fit the bill as a franchise-type player.  Think Jason Kipnis upside and Trevor Crowe downside.  The thing about Naquin is that he is a slight overdraft and, as such, may sign for slot or a little below, saving money for later rounds.  The comment about "best available player" is true again here.  He doesn't seem to be the best available TALENT but may, considering signability, being a sure thing to get to the majors, having a number of decent tools, may have been the best available player in terms of getting a guy who is sure to make the major leagues AND sign for a reasonable amount.

They should have drafted a pitcher.  Pitchers can become franchise players.  College outfielders without power and questionable ability to stay in CF are NOT franchise players.

About the draft: There is no such thing as best available player!!!

As we approach the first round of the draft tonight I wanted to comment on one statement I have heard over and over again, year after year.

"The Indians will draft the best available player"

Yeah, tell that to the fans who had to endure the likes of Beau Mills (with Jason Heyward available), Danny Peoples, Wil Hartley, Javi Herrera, Nick Bartolone, Kyle Bellows, David Roberts, TJ McFarland (when Casey Crosby, now pitching for Detroit, was available).  A guy with a copy of Baseball America's top 200 prospects which, in theory, is based on the best available player can generally do better than the Indians have done.  I know because I have done that and the guys above were all drafted way ahead of where they should have been, based on talent, and failed or are in the process of failing miserably.

The problem is "best available player" is such a loaded statement.  What does it mean?  What is the equation that is used to figure out who the "best available player" is?

I think it comes down to the best available player who:

• has the most talent and
• is willing to sign for a reasonable bonus  and/or fits in their bonus plans and
• who has shown to be very coachable and
• who the organization feels they can develop, presumably because they can develop, say, LHP or catchers and
• who fits the need in the organization

The Indians do a great job of finding major league or potential major league relievers in later rounds, but not much else.  They do a miserable job of finding guys who are underrated and turning them into major leaguers who do anything else BUT pitch in relief.

A sickening exercise that I don't advise is to look at the guys drafted right after the guys above.  The fact is that the Indians do a bad job of drafting the "best available player".

Their equation is NOT based on talent, or at least it hasn't been except for 2010. as near as I can figure.  If it is based on anything but talent then they either need to evaluate better or develop better because it is now a generally held belief that their lack of talent in the minors and the small amount of homegrown talent in the majors is due to bad drafting and bad drafting alone.

So, dispense with the 'best player available' stuff unless you are willing to define it as something more than talent.  THAT is a quote that would be refreshing and that I would love to read in the rhetoric that surrounds the hype that surrounds the baseball draft.

Victor Roache?

The latest rumor I have heard is that the Indians are considering drafting Victor Roache from Georgia Southern.  He is an OF/1B with enormous power but whose season ended in early February after surgery to fix a wrist broken when hit by a pitch.

Picking Roache would make sense as he was the 9th ranked draft prospect before this season.  In mock drafts he has been projected to go anywhere from 19th-23rd, despite his injury and the resultant lack of looks that the scouts have at him.  He is currently ranked 22nd by Baseball America. 

This pick would make sense for the Indians.  I don't honestly believe that there will be any guy at pick 15 who will just separate himself from the rest of the crowd and that Roache would most likely sign quickly and for slot given his injury and where he is projected to go now.  The Indians are in desperate need of power hitters and if the available pitchers don't project as #1 or #2 starters I could see the Indians going after Roache who might still take 2-3 years to get to the majors, putting him very close to the ETA for Francisco Lindor and company.  The only fly in this ointment is if the NCAA would give him an extra year of eligibility which would make him a redshirt junior next year, meaning he would still have his best leverage year (his hopefully healthy and productive junior year in 2013) ahead of him.

Rumors also are that Lance McCullers might be a hard signing and that Lucas Giolito and his 100 mph fastball may not be drafted early in the first round due to his injured elbow.   Marcus Stroman, projected as a top 10 prospect may also not go that high.

The draft is fluid at this point and one only hopes that the Indians have enough looks at all these guys.

I feel a draft! A quick primer on the draft and who the Indians might pick

2012 Baseball Draft – Indians Version

General:

The Indians earned the 15^th overall slot in the draft based on their 15^th worst record in all of baseball last year.  Even with that draft slot their budget for the first 10 rounds is 22^nd overall ($4,582,900) as they don’t have as many draft picks in those rounds as some other teams.   For any player signed after round 10, if their bonus is greater than $100,000, the difference will be added to their top 10 round total. The Indians will be allowed to go over that slot by 5% ($229,145 to $4,812,045 IF they pay 75% of the amount they go over as a penalty (if they go over 5% this would represent a $171,859 penalty).  If they go over their overall budget by more than 5% they lose their first round pick next year and pay a 75% penalty on the overage.  If they go over budget by more than 10% they lose their first two picks next year.

Signability will be a HUGE part of this draft.  Kids and their ‘advisors’ will quickly figure out how much money is available by looking at the other picks.  Teams will try to fit all their signings under their ‘cap’.  The draftees will try to wring every penny out of a team as they approach the draft signing deadline which, this year, is 5 pm ET on July 13^th.  There is a chance that there will be no money left to sign a guy after the 10^th round to an over slot (more than $100,000 bonus) so don’t look for a lot of flyers to sign early.  You can almost guarantee that every player signed after the first 10 rounds was signed for around $100,000 or less.  . 

1^st round: Pick 15

Analysis: As in my previous article, it makes more sense for the Indians to draft a stud HS pitching prospect than a middling college pitcher who will be quick to the majors like Andrew Heaney.  Similar to the year the Braves gambled on high school first baseman/outfielder Jason Heyward right after we took ‘safe' college third baseman Beau Mills (we know how that turned out, don’t we?), the Indians might turn the tables and gamble on a HS pitcher instead of going with the safe pick, Heaney.

NAMES TO WATCH:

Lance McCullers Jr. – 6’2” RHP – The chances of him being there at 15 are slim but he might slide that far if there is any question of him signing for slot.  If he is there and signable, he is an easy choice.

Ty Hensley – 6’5” RHP – He has moved up during the season and would be my 2^nd choice.

Walker Weickel – 6’6” RHP – He was highly rated at the beginning of the season, fell somewhat and is now making a late push.  He is my third choice.

 

Matt Smoral – 6’8” LHP – He has been hurt all year and teams would have to go off last summer.  He was rated 13^th at the beginning of the year and would probably, at this point, sign for slot.  He will be the biggest gamble of any first round pick made this year, assuming no one makes a real headscratcher so he has to be my 4^th choice but I would be happy with him if the first three are gone.

2^nd round: Pick 79

Analysis – I think the Indians might go for the best available college hitter and, if available, a quality power hitter.  Note that this might not be the best available player on the board at this time but they may draft to fill a need AND save a little cash by getting a guy who will quickly sign for slot AND, in doing this not go TOO far away from the best available player on the board at that moment, if you don’t include guys who won’t sign for slot.  The Indians desperately need power hitting in their organization and college power hitters are not always that highly ranked as they tend to be 2-3 tool guys.  In the AL, with the DH, that still plays well if two of those tools are OBP and power.   Note that there are also likely to be values in this round who are not power hitters.  For example, there are a number of college senior hitters who would sign for slot or below and there are guys like  RHP Branden Kline from Virginia could be available as could HS third basemen Rio Ruiz and Trey Williams, both of who were first round projection guys earlier in the year.

NAMES TO WATCH:

Adam Brett Walker – 1B – Jacksonville – He probably won’t be available at this point but is best college power hitter who will be available in the second round.  He is my lock if he is available at this spot.

Travis Jankowski OF – Stony Brook – Again, a guy who probably will be gone but an outside chance of being available. 

James Ramsey OF – Florida State – A college senior who will probably be gone.

Pete O’Brien C – Miami – A college senior who was drafted highly last year and didn’t sign.

Brandon Thomas, OF – Georgia Tech

Dane Phillips, C/1B – Oklahoma City

3rd round: Pick 110

Analysis – In recent years a number of teams have drafted college seniors as early as the 3^rd round.  This seems odd as college seniors have no leverage and usually sign for small bonuses ($1,000 to $10,000).  Drafting a college senior this early means that you are likely to pay him $200,000 to $300,000.  Obviously some of these guys are talented, having been high draft picks the year before and not signing.  So there are values here and to save money you could use later in the draft I think you might see the Indians pick the best college senior here.  Besides James Ramsey and Pete O’Brien who I mentioned above and will be gone most likely by this pick, here are some college seniors who the Indians may go after.

NAMES TO WATCH:

Sam Stafford – RHP – Texas – He hurt his shoulder early in the year and so would be a stretch at this point unless he is willing to sign really cheap but he was the top senior in the class at the beginning of the year.

Matt Price – RHRP – South Carolina – I suggested the Indians draft him in the 6^th round last year and he ended up not signing for the Diamondbacks who drafted him in that round.. 

Kevin Brady – RHP – Clemson – The highest Indians’ 2011 draft choice not signed, Brady has been suffering from a hamstring injury but was highly rated before the season.

Note that, according to Baseball America, these guys would be overdrafts at this point in the draft and that there are many more seniors out there who may be rated higher right now and may be targets.  I just think the Indians will go cheap with this pick and picking a college senior or another value pick (e.g., an injured college junior pitcher who has dropped due to injury but wants to sign now and is willing to sign at or below the slot for this pick) is the way they will go.

4^th round: Pick 143

I think the Indians now might go for the best available HS player who will sign for under $1.2 million.  This strategy could backfire as by drafting a guy like this in the 4^th round, if they don’t sign him, they would not get a compensation pick next year.  Still, if you are going to get a college senior you want to save money in the 3^rd round, the 4^th round is where you will get your best guy who has dropped.

5^th round: Pick 173, 6^th round: Pick 203, 7^th round: 233, 8^th round: 263, 9^th round: 293, 10^th round: 323.

I see the Indians drafting almost exclusively college pitchers here although I think they will sprinkle in a college outfielder who projects as a ML 4^th outfielder like Ben Francisco who they drafted in the 5^th round a while back.  They may sprinkle in a HS kid who will sign for slot like they did with Fernando Cabrera a few years ago or an injured college or HS pitcher who was 1^st-2^nd round material but dropped due to that injury as the Indians did with Robbie Aviles last year and Vinnie Pestano a number of years ago.  Remember, the Indians are absolutely fantastic at drafting college pitchers and turning them into very good relief pitchers and are not very good at drafting college bats and turning them into utility or role players in the majors.  Look for a LOT of pitchers among these 6 picks.