Sunday, July 15, 2012

2012 MLB Draft Analysis - Who had the best drafts

Who had the best draft this year?  Well, that's a tough question because the playing field is always unlevel due to teams losing and gaining extra picks near the top of the draft due to free agent compensation.  So I did a semi-scientific analysis.  Scientific in that I collected the data, subjective in that I analyzed the data with my gut as well as my head.  Many people will do analyses of who had the best drafts. Here's mine.
1. No team spent more than 5% over their draft budget meaning no team loses a first round pick next year and there will be no supplementatl draft in which those forfeited picks are lotteried off.

2. Ten of the thirty teams exceeded their draft budgets with Toronto, overage plus 75% tax, leading the way by exceeding their budget by $770,000. 

3. There were a number of compensation picks created starting with Pittsburgh getting the #9 pick next year for failing to sign Mark Appel.  In case you are wondering, I think, even under the new CBA, Appel would have to allow the Pirates to re-draft him in 2013.

In terms of who had the best drafts, I looked at a number of things including draft slot, number of top prospects signed, draft overages, if they existed, all of which are captured in the table below.  From that data here are the teams who I think had the top drafts this year::

1. Oakland
2. Minnesota
3. San Diego
4. St. Louis
5. Toronto
6. Cincinnati
7. Cleveland

Note that 2 teams had less than 40 picks after losing top draft picks for signing free agents (LA Angels (38) and Detroit (39)), 9 teams (including the Indians) had zero extra picks, 8 teams had one extra pick, 5 teams had 2 extra picks and 6 teams had 3 extra picks.  It is really difficult to rate how well a team did when it had fewer picks than another team.  So, to level the playing field, based on the number of extra picks teams had, here are the teams that had the best drafts.

3 extra picks: Oakland/Minnesota (tie)
2 extra picks: Milwaukee
1 extra pick: Houston/Cincinnati (tie)
0 extra picks: Cleveland

OK, if you want the raw numbers, here they are:

TeamSlotPicks SignedBA Top 100BA 100-200 Extra PicksSpent vs BudgetTaxTotal Overage (Excess plus tax)
Kansas City5311/12/30148,00037,000185,000
Chicago Cubs6293/32/31373,800280,350654,150
San Diego7405/52/23-90,10000
New York Mets12213/32/42-185,60000
Chicago WS13322/26/61000
Toronto17326/61/23$441,000 330,000770,000
Los Angeles Dodgers18333/34/4198,50073,875172,375
Los Angeles Angels19361/13/3-2-46,90000
San Francisco20322/23/3054,10040,57594,675
St. Louis22365/62/23312,890234,667547,557
Tampa Bay24371/12/20-49,00000
New York Yanks29262/22/31-406,00000

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