Sunday, July 15, 2012

Mock Draft Updates - The signing is done. Now it's time to play the games

OK, no two people ever agree on how to conduct a baseball draft so I like to put my ring in the hat and see if I am better than the Indians. Every year I conduct what are called a "shadow" draft, where, right after the draft, I pick my players as if I was running the Indians draft board.  I do this based on available players at the time each Indians' pick rolls around.  I have examined my 2008 shadow draft last June to see where I was and in June I posted my shadow drafts with posts Shadow Draft Version 1 where I took a different path entirely from the Indians and Shadow Draft Version 2 where I took the same path as the Indians but just tweeked a couple of picks.

Now that the signing period is over I wanted to examine my picks vs the Indians based on who signed and whether my shadow drafts came in under budget or not, based on the guys I picked who signed.  In the chart below I have inputted best information on bonuses and the chart represents just the underages and overages for slot  for rounds after round 10 with the total budget at the bottom. 

Highlights of my strategy (Version 1) is that I signed Ty Buttrey, Sam Stafford, Michael Roth and Jose Mesa Jr.  I wound up signing SIXTEEN Baseball America top 500 guys and still finished under budget.  In my tweek of the Indians draft (Version 2), I subsituted Victor Roache for Tyler Naquin as the Indians are short on power.  I also signed Stafford and Roth, signed 13 BA top 500 guys and finished under budget, not surprising as this draft mirrored pretty much the Indians draft.   Compare this to the Indians strategy where they signed 13 BA top 500 guys and, as we know, finished under budget. 

Time will tell who had the better draft, me or the Indians, but here are both of my mock drafts for posterity.  Note that I prefer Version 1 as that is my strategy but I still think Version 2 will turn out better than the Indians.  Remember, in the lists below only the overage and underage vs slot is listed for rounds after round 10.  As in all other lists like this, the guys in bold are the guys who actually signed

Version 2Version 1
1. Victor Roache$1,600,000 1. Ty Hensley      $1,200,000
2. Mitch Brown$800,000 2. Brett Adam Walker$490,400
3. Kieran Lovegrove$400,000 3. Mac Williamson$390,000
4. D'Vonne McClure$750,000 4. Ty Buttrey$1,300,000
5. Dylan Baker$200,000 5. Robert Benicasa$145,300
6. Michael Roth$70,000 6. Beau Amaral$146,000
7. Josh McAdams$250,000 7. Kris Hall$137,200
8. Taylor Dugas$70,000 8. Michael Roth$70,000
9. Jacob Lee$5,000 9. Jacob Lee$5,000
10. Josh Martin$4,500 10. Kevin Brady$4,500
11. Logan Vick$25,000 11. Logan Vick$25,000
12. Jeremy Lucas$0 12. Jeremy Lucas$0
13. Sam Stafford$50,000 13. Sam Stafford$50,000
14. Matt Reckling$0 14. Andrew Calica$0
15. Nelson Rodriguez$0 15. Ronnie Richardson$90,000
16. Cody Penny016. Cody Penny0
17. Andrew Calica$0 17. Louis Head0
18. Louis Head$0 18. Jeremy Schaffer0
19. Colyn O'Connell$0 19. Colyn O'Connell0
20. Nick Pasquale020. Nick Pasquale0
21. Joe Sever021. Joe Sever0
22. Jim Stokes022. Patrick Blair0
23. Richard Stock023. Richard Stock0
24. Walker White024. Jose Mesa Jr.150,000
25. Cameron Cox025. Cameron Cox0
26. Justin Garza026. Jimmy Rider0
27. Ray Castillo027. Justin Gonzalez0
28. Josh Pigg028. Josh Pigg0
29. Randall Fant029. Randall Fant0
30. Josh Lester030. Josh Lester0
31. Daniel Holst031. Andrew Potter0
32. Paul Hendrix032. Paul Hendrix0
33. Corey Raley033. Corey Raley0
34. Matt Fultz034. Pedro Pizzaro0
35. Nick Hamilton035. Nick Hamilton0
36. Benny Suarez036. Benny Suarez0
37. Jacob Morris037. Adam Ford0
38. Joshua Nervis038. Joshua Nervis0
39. D.J. Brown039. D.J. Brown0
40. Anthony Hawkins$0 40. Anthony Hawkins0

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