And the San DIego Padres jump in! Could Mejia be coming back?

This is exactly the way it's supposed to be.   Get a bunch of people interested in a 'property' and drive up the price to get the best return on your investment.

But this isn't real estate and Corey Kluber isn't a piece of land with a building on it.

That being said, if the Indians are truly pitting division rivals against each other I would suggest they open a dialogue with St. Louis.   Having San Diego and the Dodgers pitted against each other is great but adding the Cardinals to the Reds would make this even more interesting.   Engaging the Braves might be another way to drive up the price.

But back to the Padres.

It is rumored the Indians would have to be blown away to get a deal done.   It has also been stated that the Padres would not include either of their top two prospects (Fernando Tatis Jr. or McKenzie Gore) in the trade.   With those parameters here is my deal:

Kluber and Haase for OF Hunter Renfro, C/OF Francisco Mejia and RHRP Andres Munoz

Yes, I still think that Mejia can catch and I like keeping his bat in the lineup when he isn't catching.   Having him as the DH with Santana playing 1B and Bauers in LF will do that.   At the same time if we do this it kinda makes the Luplow trade look worthless (assuming you didn't think it was a worthless trade already!) as Renfro goes to RF in that situation.  But whatever.

So there it is.  

This deal meets all the criteria above and, in its own way, it is kinda cool.

However, the problem is that there are MANY PR reasons this doesn't work for the Padres.

1. They traded Kluber away in the first place.   It is hard to justify paying a high price for a guy you traded away for a low return (Ludwick, based on his production in San Diego).

2. Getting Hand and Cimber for Mejia looked good for both teams at the time but I imagine that the Padres fans may feel cheated on that deal now that they have had time to think and read about the reasons why the Indians were willing to deal Mejia. I think those fans need Mejia to contribute heavily FOR the Padres at this point to feel good about that trade...not use him as trade bait for a bigger trade.

3. When the Padres fans think about it they would have, in a 6-month period, traded Hand, Cimber, Renfro and Munoz for Kluber and Haase.  I don't know if that would fly with those fans as being even exchange even though I think that it is CLEARLY even exchange with the Padres getting the better of the deal if Kluber stays healthy and Munoz isn't a good contributor in the next year or so, given what we can expect from Cimber, Hand and Renfro.

Do St. Louis Cardinals make sense for Kluber trade

It appears that Jose Martinez who has played 1B, LF and RF for the Cardinals may be available with their acquisition of Paul Goldschmidt.

Living in St. Louis gives me a little perspective and I am not a huge Jose Martinez fan, truth be told, as I don't like his basic numbers that much and he is an older guy (31) even though his ML experience is limited (1+ years).  However, he is an upgrade to what we have and is controllable and there is no full-time position for him right now in St. Louis.

I doubt if the Cardinals would go for this but I could see us making the following trade:

Kluber, Kipnis and $5 million for Martinez, Dakota Hudson, Ryan Helsley and Kolten Wong

Helsley may be a little too much to ask for in this trade but that is where I would start and if I had to throw in another minor leaguer I could see us giving up Dalbert Siri.

Just a thought.

Trading Kluber

OK, two teams interested in Kluber participated in a trade.   The interesting thing about that is that two of the Dodgers linked to Kluber, Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig, were in that trade!   This sets up all sorts of scenarios.  

I think the above trade increases the chances that the Indians both deal with the Reds AND include Kipnis in the deal.   Let's talk why:

• The Dodgers have traded enough outfielders now that they can no longer trade an outfielder to Cleveland.   Even if they do sign Bryce Harper it would only give them 5 outfielders on their roster and I don't see how they could give the 4th outfield spot to Andrew Toles and trade Alex Verdugo to the Indians.  I guess they could move one of their infielders to the outfield but I think this dooms the Kluber trade.  The Kluber trade with the Dodgers looked good if we would have taken on one of their contracts and given them Kipnis.   Say, Verdugo, Kemp, Dennis Santana and Will Smith for Kipnis and Kluber.   Without Verdugo that deal HAS to die on the vine and now with Kemp gone, there is no way to make the salaries work AND still get the Indians quality prospects for Kluber
• The Reds, on the other hand, appear now to have the pieces the Indians want and, according to their FO, they have "resources" left to use to improve their team.  So let's postulate a trade.   The first part is a salary exchange, then we talk Kluber for whoever we can get.   

Kipnis for Puig and Kluber, $3 million (difference between Kipnis and Puig salary) for Senzel, Herget, Santillan and Jose Lopez

This would increase the Reds payroll with Kluber's salary.   We would get a right fielder, a replacement for Kipnis on the infield and three guys who can help our bullpen in 2019 and beyond with Santillan being a possible future starter, as well..  

In summary I think this minimizes the chances of Kluber being traded to the Dodgers, that is if we want a good, long-term return and it increases the chances of him being dealt to the Reds as they are now set up to have the pieces the Indians want AND take on Kluber's salary.

Qualifying Offers

OK, it's time to revisit the lack of qualifying offers made by the Indians.

We now know some things we didn't know at the time qualifying offers had to be made:

• Yasmani Grandal was offered the $17.6 million qualifying offer and rejected it.   He hasn't signed yet.  In my opinion I can't see him being as valuable as our best free agents.
• The Indians were looking for ways to cut salary this off-season and that plan would have been severely impacted if anyone had accepted a qualifying offer
• The Indians really don't seem, at the present, to care much about this level of draft choices given that they gave one away to Seattle in a recent trade.
• The Indians seem to be spending more time scouting and signing higher level talents in Latin America than they have in the past.

We also know that Michael Brantley has signed a two year deal worth $32 million and that Andrew Miller has signed a two-year deal for $22.5 million.   Cody Allen, the other reliever who might have been worth making a qualifying offer to has not yet signed.  We were not allowed to make a qualifying offer to Josh Donaldson as he was not with the club long enough.   He recently signed a 1-year deal for $23 million.

I think the last 3 bullets above really point out that the Indians really were never going to make qualifying offers to their free agents under any situation.  

Look, I am a prospect guy so I like draft choices.   I also know that if you play your cards right you can get 5-10 3rd round or better talents in a draft IF you have a lot of high draft choices to begin with as, among other things, it increases your bonus pool.  The Indians don't appear to be thinking that way and their budget constraints just made it easy for them to turn down the opportunity to get something they don't presently seem to value: extra draft choices, although I think it is fair to say that at least Michael Brantley would have rejected the offer, maybe Andrew Miller, too.

The Indians have chosen to go a different direction but let's all be aware that this was a conscious decision.   So, if we don't have enough prospects 5 years from now, one of the things we can trace it back to is the lack of value they seem to put on excess draft choices and acquiring and keeping them.

Still trading Kluber, huh?

I am OK with trading Corey Kluber.   Let's set the record straight right here.   However, it would have to be for a great return.

Let's define a great return:

1. Young highly regarded prospect (top 20 in all of baseball) who can step in and play a position of need this year (outfield, third or second base).

2. A reliable reliever who is under a club-favorable contract and still had 2 or more years of control

3. A young, highly rated prospect who is still 2 years away from having to be rostered and at least 3 years away from the majors.

4. If necessary, taking on a short term veteran contract of lesser value than Kluber's if they fill a position of need with us.

Now, in saying this I wanted to throw out some names:

Francisco Mejia

Oliver Perez

Willi Castro

Edwin Encarnacion

Basically I am asking to get back what we already traded away in the past 6 months.

Now, when you think about that, isn't it silly to trade Kluber away just to get back guys like this?

I think it is.

How about you?

Let's take a few minutes away from baseball to catch our breath!

So let's talk some football.   Here are my opinions, for what they are worth.

• I can't believe anyone thinks Ohio State deserved to be in the playoffs.   Just too many close or unconvincing victories against weak opponents and then there is Purdue.  That being said, they keep cranking out NFL players and keep winning.
• The Browns at 6-7-1 are a pleasant surprise.   Still, I watched all of their game on Saturday, the first time I have seen them in a complete game.   They didn't look very good.   They won, but not in a manner that would convince me that under Mayfield they are on the upswing.  The kinda won ugly.  This is the type of vast improvement that is part mirage and portends a falloff to say 4 wins next year.  They need to find a way to keep this momentum going into the off-season and next year and buck that fall off trend.
• Let's talk Ohio State football recruiting next.   I think this whole recruiting 'dance' is just comical.  Guys committing two years in advance only to decommit and then commit to someone else, sometimes multiple times before the early signing period.  If you are a hard core, all in OSU football fan this must drive you nuts.   I am only at the periphery of it and I think the whole process is crazy.
• Speaking of crazy, I just read that Georgia's freshman quarterback is thinking of transferring to OSU!  That brings me to the major point of this post.    OSU, not counting Haskins, has 4 quarterbacks on their depth chart including two, Martell and Baldwin, who are top recruits.   Why on Earth would another quarterback want to come here.   Weird.   Now I can see where maybe you need 12 offensive linemen on scholarship and so a freshman coming in and seeing 10 guys on the depth chart in front of him wouldn't be dismayed.   But a quarterback coming into a program that already has 4 quarterbacks plus Haskins?   That's like having 5 scholarship punters.
• OK, that's it for now.   Now back to baseball.   Sometime I will have to digress and tell all of you about my connection to professional wrestling!

Minor league infielder Andruw Monasterio, huh!

So the PTBNL in the Yan Gomes trade is Andruw Monasterio!

Underwhelming, to be sure..

Hey, its not like I have anything against Monasterio.   Apparently Washsington thought enough about him to have him on the 40-man roster and if what I read is accurate for the last two years, meaning he only has one option left.  

But, as I said, I don't have anything against the guy.   Of course, I don't have anything against Eric Stamets, Luke Watkamatsu, Dillon Persinger, Jorma Rodriguez, Dorsys Paulino or even higher ranked prospects like Tyler Krieger, Mark Mathias and Ernie Clement.

But that's the point, isn't it.   Utility infielders, even ones on the 40 man roster (like Stamets), are not that valuable.

So, getting Monasterio as the PTBNL in the Yan Gomes salary dump trade makes perfect sense.   It was a salary dump.   Therefore, you wouldn't expect the PTBNL to be worth much.   And he wasn't.

In fact, you COULD make the case that taking Monasterio actually did Washington a favor as it cleared a 40-man roster spot for them without them having to DFA Monasterio or provide us with a younger prospect who had more value and/or didn't have to be rostered yet..

So I have to ask myself: Which team did this PTBNL transaction help more: The Indians or the Nationals?

I would say it was a wash...which means it actually didn't help the Indians now or in the future...much like the whole Gomes trade and, until proven otherwise, every trade the Indians made this off-season.

Thoughts For A Friday Night

I never liked the Yonder Alonso signing and said so at the time of his signing.    His stats show that he is a platoon player.   You don't sign platoon players for $8 million a year.   Just getting rid of his contract is good enough.     This is one salary dump I am on board with.  

Right now, what would look really good would be the following lineup:

C - Roberto Perez
1B - Jake Bauers
2B - Jose Ramirez
SS - Francisco Lindor
3B - Manny Machado
LF - Greg Allen
CF - Leonys Martin
RF - Bryce Harper
DH - Carlos Santana

Now, with our pitching staff if a couple of the relievers come on and Salazar can contribute in some way, now we have a chance to compete for a series title.

However, without Harper and Machado we have the following lineup:

C - Perez
1B - Bauers
2B - Kipnis
SS - Lindor
3B - Ramirez
LF - Allen
CF - Martin
RF - Luplow/Naquin
DH - Santana

I contend that this would not even constitute a true major league lineup.  Even more telling than that is that Moroff is our utility infielder, Haase is our backup catcher and we have ZERO backup outfielders, at least at the start of the season (Zimmer later?) AND, except for Yu Chang, we really don't have a single minor leaguer ready to step in and help this team offensively or defensively, even in a platoon arrangement.

So, saving salary is one way to go but you have to have a plan to fill your starters and backups with guys who can actually play in the majors, not just 4A players.

Rule 5 results and analysis

Wow, who would have thought bad news in the Rule 5 draft would seem insignificant.

Here is how the Indians fared today in the Rule 5 draft:

Major League phase

Round 1

10. Mets: RHP Kyle Dowdy (Indians)

Triple-A phase

Round 1
12. Angels: RHP Matt Esparza (Indians)
19. Indians: LHP Yapson Gomez (Cubs)  

Round 2
32. Indians: 1B Wilson Garcia (Orioles)

41. A's: 1B Anthony Miller (Indians)

Round 4
42. Rays: RHP Hector Figueroa (Indians) 

On the surface this doesn't appear to be a great loss.   We kept Oscar Gonzalez, Dalbert Siri and others.  We could have lost more.  Sad to see Esparza go.  

Still, in the big scheme of things, this was minor news today.  

One silver lining: the penny-pinching Indians will come out in the black today as they will bring in more for the players they lost than for the players they brought in...at least in the Rule 5 draft.

In my opinion the Indians are not the best at roster management in anticipation of the Rule 5 and I am talking more about their AAA reserve list than their major league roster.   Still, if this is all they lost this year they certainly appear to have limited the damage.   I guess we should be happy for small victories like this.  OK, I will take my tongue out of my cheek now.

And yet another piece of crap!

The Indians stated method of operation this winter is to reduce salary, remain competitive this year and build for the future.   Given that, I need someone to explain to me why today's trade made sense.

In today's deal the Indians:

• took on $40.8 million in salary while giving up $25.   That is offset a little bit by getting $6 million but  it still means that we added over $10 million in salary over the next two years above what were responsible for going into today.
• They traded a 1B/DH for a 1B/DH.   One can argue the relative merits of these two players but, for me, I consider the talent a wash here.
• Traded Yandy Diaz and the lottery ticket that is Cole Sulser for the .201 hitting Jake Bauer, 
• Traded the #77 pick in the upcoming draft for the above-mentioned $6 million.   Note, also, that they saved $800,000 because that is the slot for the pick that they won't have next year so in terms of cost savings, you have to consider that. 

How does any of that meet the stated purpose of cutting salary while remaining currently competitive while building for the future?  Salaries actually GO UP considering the next two years.   Bauers, on paper, doesn't make us more competitive now or in the future unless, and here is that phrase again, you can catch lightning in a bottle with Bauer turning into a MUCH better player than he has showed up to this point and Diaz being a worse player than he has shown so far.  Plus, this small market team that should depend on player development just traded a draft pick for cash.

I will say this again.   NO TRADE, not one, they have made this winter makes them better in 2019 or in the future.  In every case it appears we gave up more than we got back.  EVERY CASE.   How is that possible?  I can see one trade like the Bauers one, looking like we got robbed because our analytics guys (who, BTW, got buried against the Astros guys in the playoffs) thought Bauers was a real good value, but EVERY trade looks like we took other teams' trash and gave them at least lottery tickets back, if not significantly more.

I don't like to call people names who are supposed to be professionals at their jobs.  I mean, people who know what they are doing entrusted them with these roles, roles they graduated into after years as underlings.   However, the Indians front office looks to me to be a bunch of Grade A idiots who can't distinguish between a race horse and the dung that race horse produces.

What's your guess?

Well we are about to get to the meat of the offseason: the winter meetings.

Unfortunately this year, for me, these meetings are more about dread than expectation.

There have been several rumors about the Indians trying to package Jason Kipnis with a starting pitcher.

Of course, the upshot of that is that we would get a Yan Gomes-(or worse, relatively)-like return for that starting pitcher.

Effectively it would giving up our second all-star this winter without helping the 2019 team or, likely, the team in the future.

This rumor, of course, brings out every blogging idiot saying "Hey, man, I think we could steal Trevor Bauer from the Indians because they need to slash salary".  I know that all I have to do is stop reading these bloggers to stop the pain of reading these bloggers.   That being said, it is just painful to see that the rest of the baseball world sees the Indians as a team they can steal good players from.

So, what's your vote: Will we try to include Kipnis at the cost of not getting even return back from the team we trade the starting pitcher to?

Given all the other STUPID moves this off-season, none of which help the Indians at all unless they catch lightning in a bottle (I guess if you throw enough crap against the wall SOME of it will stick), my guess is that the Indians will try to include Kipnis and be happy with whatever trash they get back.  That is, another salary dump.

For a team that has won 3 AL Central titles in a row, it is almost incomprehensible to say this but this off-season is truly a depressing time to be an Indains' fan!

An open letter to Indians' management

5-18

4-7-1

Dear Indians Management,

It is about 3 weeks from Christmas.   This is what you have to compete against as far as your competition for Cleveland's sports entertainment dollars.

Doesn't seem like that hard of a task, right?  

You are in a rebuilding division.   You have the best rotation and a couple of the best (maybe the two best) position players in the division.

Shouldn't be hard to win your division and, as a result, have a winning team, right?

This is why your front office's performance this off-season is so puzzling.  

Your goal is to cut budget.   I get that.   I know that is why Gomes got traded and one of your starting pitchers will get traded.  Got it.

The problem is that your off-season transactions are garbage.

I know you feel Gomes had to be traded.   I just don't know why you took the other team's questionable prospects in return for a catcher who is well above league average.  You are in Cleveland where prospects matter.   So why wouldn't you try to get the best prospect return, even if that meant taking prospects still in the lower minors, rather than taking high minors prospects who are likely to NEVER help you be competitive?   If you want to be competitive long-term you don't take guys with 4th outfielder and middle relief potential.

As far as the trades that got us Luplow, Moroff, Lockett and Chih-Wei Hu, we lost an important trade chip in Erik Gonzalez and a number of pitching prospects in Mendoza, Thomas and Feliz and an intriguing infielder in Gionti Turner.  All of the guys we got back have been either failures or mediocre so far in their careers.    I know, your FO will look like heroes if they take other teams' rejects and turn them into viable and important parts of the Indians roster this season.   But why would you even gamble on that?

So we are trading low minors prospects for 4A-level talent and when we trade a veteran we get mediocre, 4A level prospects back?

While I get Gomes I don't get the return for Gomes.   I also don't get any of the other trades the Indians made this off-season.   It gives the Indians questionable bullpen arms and questionable position players, neither of which is going to help the team win this year or, likely, in the future.   It is embarrassing to say that there is a real chance that NONE of the six players we have acquired this off-season will EVER have a positive impact on Cleveland Indians baseball.

And if you think that your analytics are better than those of other teams, realize that you got your butt handed to you in the playoffs by a team, the Houston Astros, who actually knows how to use analytics.   So don't count on convincing us that the 4a level players you traded for this winter will be better than what they appear to be.   You don't have the track record to even TRY to sell us that bill of goods.

So, while you are doing your Christmas shopping ponder on Cleveland sports fans doing theirs.   You are in a unique position to be the only viable sports franchise in Cleveland and you are doing NOTHING to help yourselves get people to buy tickets.

If you want your front office to do something useful, have them find a way to dump Younder Alonso and Jason Kipnis without lessening the return for whatever starting pitcher we trade.

The Indians can run this town like they did in the 90s.   Just tell your front office to stop blowing the opportunity out of their butt!

Yam Gomes post trade thought

Yan Gomes was traded to save money.    Why was that necessary?   People say that the increase in payroll caused us to have to shed salary.

However, I want to put a different spin on that.   One of the major reasons we had to trade Gomes was because we signed Yonder Alonso to the 2 year, $16 million salary.   Alonso is a platoon player and you don't pay platoon players $8 a year.   Any moron can look at his lifetime splits and see he can't hit lefties.  Alonso has not helped us at all and won't in the future.

If you don't sign the irrelevant Alonso you have enough money to keep Gomes and maybe the starting pitcher and STILL win the division.

So, the ridiculous, inflated Alonso signing has cost us Gomes and maybe the starting pitcher.

I could even stomach that IF we could get something back of value.   But we are apparently incapable of that.

I am really scared for this starting pitcher trade. Really scared.

Our trades to obtain Jordan Luplow, Max Moroff, Chih-Wei Hu and Walter Lockett were just stupid.   We obtained a guy with an UPSIDE of being a platoon outfielder (Luplow), a utility infielder who can't play shortstop and can't hit (Moroff), and two pitchers who look like they are 4A players (Chih-Wei'Lu and Walter Lockettt).

The only upside in all these trades was that we lost only one player, Erik Gonzalez, who was important to our success in 2019.

I can't begin to tell you how stupid all these trades were.   There was no sense to any of them.  None.  I would LOVE to see Chernoff/Antonnetti justify trading for guys with zero history of ML success and, as a small market team, trade away a variety of prospects to do it.

There is a better than average chance that NONE of the guys we got in these trades will even play in the majors this year, let alone help the team in 2019.  I do believe, however, that there is no way that the Indians will break camp next spring without Luplow on the team as that would signal how stupid Chernoff's trade was, and there is no way the Indians front office will let that happen.

After seeing these first three trades, in the back of my mind I wondered what this pathetic excuse for general managing would do when they had to make a real trade.

Well, now we found out.

For Yan Gomes, a controllable above average major league catcher, we got back three players, two of whom are mediocre prospects, redundant to what we already have PLENTY of in our minor league system.   We don't know about the 3rd prospect.

So this brings us to the major trade we are going to make this winter.  Trading one of our starters.   Given all the trades we have made already, it seems likely now that we will be disappointed in the return for whichever starter we end up trading.   Our biggest trading chip and we are likely to get less than equal return back.    I had to laugh when local bloggers, trying to suggest CRAP trades that highly favored their team, suggested that we get Michael Taylor (Washington's mediocre 4th outfielder) or Yasiel Puig back for Kluber.  Now, however, given what we have seen already, I am worried that our front office will actually do something stupid like that.

Plus, the Indians saying they want to negotiate an extension with Carrasco or they will trade him is priceless if true.   If I was Carrasco I would immediately cut off negotiations so they DID trade me because, most certainly, they are going to want him at a discount.

Hey, I love the Cleveland Indians.  Have for 60+ years.   But what they are doing this off-season is not defensible and is hurting the near- and long-term future of this team.  

And in front of us we have the trade of the starting pitcher coming up.   Good luck with that!

Another non-sensical move by the throwback Indians' organization

In the era of throwback uniforms the Indians are trying something new: they are making throwback trades.  That is, they are making trades that the GMs of the 70s and '80s would make.

Today they traded Yan Gomes.   Let's look at the pros and cons.

Pro: We traded high on Gomes as this was his best year in a while and was a last minute all-star, making him look better than he was.

Con: Gomes was the primary catcher for most of the our starting pitchers.  I doubt those pitchers perform as well this year as they have in the past as replacing Gomes creates chemistry issues.

Con: Roberto Perez is a terrible hitter.   Gomes may not be great but he is better offensively and defensively than Perez, even in his worst year.  So now our offense is worse than it was last year.

Con: We did not get back anything that will help our team next year.  I repeat: WE DID NOT GET ANYTHING BACK THAT WILL HELP OUR TEAM NEXT YEAR.  This makes this trade a salary dump and there is no way a team like the Indians should be dumping salary when they don't have or get an adequate replacement.

Another non-sensical trade.

Hey, if we get something good back for Gomes that is great.  But Johnson was only Washington's #7 prospect at the end of 2018 and Rodriguez was only the 24th best prospect before 2018.   Unless the PTBNL is great, this trade was not a fair exchange of talent.

So we didn't get better for next year or in the future in this trade.  Again, it's a salary dump.  

Why are we in this mess? Yep, it's because of you and I.

We are fans of the Cleveland Indians.   We all know there are parameters to the club budget that are largely out of our control.   However, there is one that is IN our control: attending games.   Attending games adds money to the team.  They can add that to the payroll.   Simple.

We are looking at trading Cy Young award winners for questionable return.  Frankly, that scares me as this is the same front office who traded a viable shortstop and a slew of minor league prospects for a sub .200 outfielder with the upside of being a platoon player, a sub .200 defensively challenged utility infielder and a couple of AAAA pitchers, one of whom had a ML ERA north of 9.00 this year.

You don't want to give this front office too much room to wheel and deal.

Yet here we are.

Because we don't attend games, buy merchandise, etc. our team is looking to cut payroll.

This is squarely on our shoulders, people, as we are not buying tickets and spending our money to support our team.

The Cavs suck.

The Browns suck.

Now is the Indians' time.   They should be spending money internationally.   They should be spending money domestically.   And they should NOT have to made trades of team friendly contracts because we didn't buy tickets.

It's time, people.   Christmas is coming.   Buy some freakin' season tickets and show our team that they don't have to cut payroll.  There is no other winning team in town right now.   Get behind the one winning team you have.

Ignacio Feliz

I don't have much to say about the guy we traded for Walker Lockett except to say that he probably has more potential to be an effective big league pitcher...because any number is greater than zero.

What is being a club's minor league player of the year worth?

Someone told me that Jordan Luplow is a good prospect and used that he was the Pirates' minor league player of the year in 2017.   So I thought I would take a look at some of the Indians' minor league players of the year.   I decided to look at 2010-2015 as this would give me a chance to see how guys developed.

So here goes:

Indians minor league pitcher of the year:

• 2010     Alex White
• 2011     Chen-Chang Lee
• 2012     Cody Allen
• 2013     Cody Anderson
• 2014     Ryan Merritt
• 2015     Mike Clevinger

Indians minor league position player of the year:

• 2010     Jason Kipnis
• 2011     Jason Kipnis
• 2012     Tim Fedroff
• 2013     Joe Wendle
• 2014     Giovanny Urshela
• 2015     Bobby Bradley

The guys in bold I would suggest have had successful careers.   The guys not in bold, well, not so much.  So what does this tell us?

At best it says guys who get this award who come up and have instant success have a chance for a successful ML career.    Guys who don't have instant success become 4A players.

Luplow, well, not so much in his two years, right?   Hey, not saying that he is totally without potential but we were certainly the only team taking a gamble in that trade with the Pirates...and Rays...and now the Padres.

OMG. Walker Lockett? Really?

After thinking for a second, it makes sense.   Why not add a guy with an ERA over 9.00?  I mean, your 40 man roster can't have enough guys with batting averages under .200 or ERAs over 9, can it?

I can't wait to see what pitcher they send to San Diego for the right to help the Padres clear roster space to protect prospects.  I understand that Triston McKenzie is a minor league pitcher who doesn't have to be protected on the 40-man roster this winter.   Hmmmm???????

In any case now we have reached the point that 25% of our 40 man roster is made up of 4A players.

Perfect!

Mixed Messages

Let's look at various media reports:

1. The Indians are looking for young players and are willing to trade starting pitching to get it.   Great, trade from your strength.  I get it, especially as a small market club.   The issue for me is if they are trying to get young players, why are they trading away young players like Thomas, Mendoza and Turner for 4A players like Luplow, Moroff and Hu?  I get giving up young players at the deadline to try to make a run at the playoffs.  Still, you have to do it right as a small market team.   The Joe Smith trade sucked.   The Josh Donaldson trade was a great one.   However, the trades we have made over the past two seasons right up to this point have weakened the farm system and removed some viable trade chips for little or no return in performance or, up to now, in potential for the future.

2. The Indians appear to be open to trading Gomes.   Hey, Gomes value has never been higher so if you wanted to trade him now would be the time.   However, he is the glue who holds the starting staff together.   Trading Gomes would, in my opinion, have negative impact on the performance of the strength of this team, the rotation.   This move is the OPPOSITE of what we should be thinking of, considering the strengths of this team.

3. The Indians are looking to shed salary as they are under financial constraints.  Their roster will earn not much different than they did the last two years so I don't get it.

I will say this again and am ready to shout this from the hilltops.   The Indians look, at this moment, like an organization that doesn't know what the hell it is doing.   And, if you want a worse insult, they look like the Indians organizations I grew up with in the 70s and 80s: pathetic and inept.  If any of the above is true, the Indians are quickly moving into Cavalier and Browns territory.

I don't know if anyone is listening but, if they are, hear this.   The Indians are and will continue to be for the next 2-3 years, the only ticket in town worth purchasing.   Why in the hell would their management try to screw that up and, in addition, why in the hell would a small market team do things that would make them less competitive while not improving their future?   Hey, in a vacuum the above three media reports all make sense to some level.   However, in the face of the two trades they have made already, what they are trying to do makes no sense.

Examining the 40 man roster and the possible additions to it.

OK, it's time to look at current 40 man roster and who the Indians might add and who they might even subtract.

Locks: Bauer, Beiber, Carrasco, Cimber, Clevinger, Hand, Kluber, Olson, Otero, Plutko, Salazar, Gomes, Roberto Perez, Haase, Alonso, Chang, Yandy Diaz, Encarnacion, Kipnis, Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Greg Allen, Jordan Luplow, Leonys Martin, Oscar Mercado, Bradley Zimmer.

Guys on the fence: Cody Anderson, Jon Edwards, Nick Goody, James Hoyt, Chih-Wei Hu, Neil Ramirez, Ben Taylor, Max Moroff, Eric Stamets, Tyler Naquin

So, currently the Indians 4-man roster stands at 36 with two overall adds in the last two trades.

Never, and I repeat, NEVER have I seen this much dead wood on an Indians' team that is supposed to compete for a playoff spot.

Seven of the 18 pitchers and probably 3 of the position players currently on the roster would really be roster filler on any other contening team, the type of guys you DFA as you add prospects to the roster or make a trade for a major leaguer. There are only 3 non-pitchers who fall into the DFA-able category and two of those (Moroff and Naquin) you could argue about but you might be able to argue that Luplow and Mercado belong on the Guys on the Fence list.

Still, we have so many 4A type players on the 40 man roster at this time of year it is unbelievable.  Literally it is possible that none of the guys I list on the fence could be with the Indians as the 2019 season starts and, likely, none of those guys will have an impact on the outcome of 2019.

If the Indians go into the major league season with this roster plus prospects we add to protect them from the Rule 5 draft, this team is in trouble both in the bullpen and in the outfield and in our infield depth.

So, now that I have trashed the Indians current major league roster, let's look at who they need to add to the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft:

Definite: Bobby Bradley, Triston McKenzie (if he is Rule 5-eligible, which I don't think he is)
Maybe: Connor Marabell, Shao-Ching Chang, Henry Martinez, Sean Brady,
 
Literally, in my experience, the absolute weakest group of prospects who need to be added to the 40 man roster in my recollection.  Literally, if McKenzie isn't eligible, it could just be Bradly or Bradley and Marabell.  How weak and pathetic does that make the top of the Indians farm system look if we only add 1-2 prospects and don't worry about any of the rest being lost in the Rule 5 draft.

So it is likely that the 40-man roster could stand at 38 after adding Bradley and Marabell.

Don't get me wrong.   Civale and McKenzie could also help the ML roster next year as might Nick Sandlin.   This would be in addition to Bradley and Marabell.   So it's not like we have nobody to provide ML depth, just probably not enough from our prospect ranks.

Pretty bleak, right?   Well, lots to love about our 40-man roster as we should have enough horses to win the AL Central again.   But no contending team has 1/4 of their 40 man roster be dead weight.  It just doesn't happen.  So it makes you wonder why we made the Luplow/Moroff and Wu trades.   It really just makes our 40 man look that much more pathetic.

What in the blazes are the Indians doing here?

Chih-Wei Hu? Really?

Really?   What does this guy bring to the table?  

So the Rays get to dump a guy they don't really like in order to clear a roster spot they need to protect prospects from the Rule 5 draft.

I get that.

Hu is expendable, we have roster spots and not a lot of guys to protect this year from the Rule 5.  

But to trade him for a prospect?   Really?    Hu played in parts of 4 different seasons at AAA (admittedly one was for only one game).   Does that sound like a 4A player to you?   It surely does to me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hey, Turner wasn't that great of a prospect coming into the draft but his first year numbers were interesting.  He was young for his draft class, just turning 18 in August.   He played 2b, SS and CF his first year and his OPS was .744.   Basically, he was a lottery ticket but the initial returns said he was an interesting lottery ticket.

So, in two trades this winter we have stripped three interesting prospects out of our farm system for guys who don't look very interesting to me and guys who we could duplicate in free agency for their major league minimum.  

This trade was the second in a row that was non-sensical.  

You are a freakin' small market team.   Luplow, Moroff and Hu are not the kind of guys you build on.

Any day of the week I would rather have Mendoza, Thomas and Turner (and Gonzalez).

We keep ripping interesting prospects out of the bottom of our farm system and we get nothing of current or future value back.

What the heck is going on?

Tampa had their backs against the wall and we did them a favor by taking 4A player Hu off their hands so they could clear a roster spot and then handed them a legitimate prospect in Turner.   That doesn't seem like a fair trade to me.

The light of a new day

As the sun comes up on a new day, guess what?  

The Gonzalez trade still sucks.

Somebody PLEASE explain this one to me.

This is the kind of trade the Indians used to make in the 70s and 80s.

Plus we gave up Thomas and Mendoza which doesn't make sense considering what we traded and what we got back.  

SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN THIS TO ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You can smell the stank of this trade all the way through the internet

OK, the Indians have started the off-season with a thud.   They managed to sign Chernoff to a contract extension and he rewarded them by making a stinker of a first trade this winter.

Normally in trades you are trying to do one or more of a number of things:

1. Trade your excess for another team's excess in areas your team is weak.   This is the best kind of trade as it usually a win-win, benefitting both teams' major league roster.  The key is that you get back in the trade about what you gave up.

2. Trade prospects to get a current major leaguer

3. Trade veterans for prospects

4. Do a salary dump

5. Take on salary in a salary dump to fill a need on your roster.

6. Clear space on your 40-man roster

The Indians traded Erik Gonzalez, Tanaj Thomas and Dante Mendoza to the Pirates for Jordan Luplow and Max Moroff.

This trade does not fit into any of the above categories

Moroff  is a utility infielder who is clearly inferior to Gonzalez.
Luplow is a right-handed hitting outfielder who bounced last year between AAA and the majors.

BOTH ARE PLAYERS WHOSE CAREER MAJOR LEAGUE AVERAGES ARE BELOW THE MENDOZA LINE.

Gonazlez, on the other hand, has performed at reasonable offensive and defensive levels to be a solid utility infielder for a number of years with the potential to be an everyday player in Pittsburgh.   How he will do when asked to play every day is up in the air but my guess is he will be a well-above-average defender and his bat will blossom now that he will be getting regular playing time. Plus he isn't even arbitration eligible so wouldn't have cost us much money next year.

Thomas and Mendoza are lottery tickets but they represent the kind of players acquired in trades where the other team is doing a salary dump.  That is, something that may net a big return in the future for the team dumping salary.  

Plus, this trade actually ADDS dead weight to the 40 man roster instead of removing it.

So, to summarize:

A. Unless Luplow and Moroff have sudden turnarounds in performance they will be no help next year to the major league roster and will just take up roster space.  They will both be in their 3rd year in the majors so it is not like they are about to explode on the scene.

B. We wasted a trade chip in Gonzalez and got nothing back that was useful.

C.  As if A. and B. were not bad enough, the Indians also threw in two lower level prospects, i.e., something for the future to salvage the trade if Gonzalez doesn't out.  Gonzalez should have netted us Luplow and Moroff WITHOUT throwing in Thomas and Mendoza.  It is even reasonable, looking at the major league performance of each of these three players, CLEVELAND should have gotten one or two prospects like Mendoza back instead of throwing him int.

Let me be clear.   This was a PATHETIC trade on paper.   Maybe the Indians know something about Luplow and Moroff that I don't know (and obviously that the mediocre Pirates don't know).  But, unless Luplow and Moroff far exceed their current level of ML production, this trade does nothing to help the Indians in the present or the future.  Time will tell but this trade appears to be nonsensical and made without any plan in place for the short term or long term future of the club.

Qualifying Offer Decisions

This past week resulting in an epic moment for the Cleveland Indians.  They had a chance to offer qualifying offers to three former all-stars and chose not to.

This year the qualifying offer rate was a stiff one, $17.9 million for a single year.

Put into perspective for the three Indians who might have been worth a qualifying offer: Cody Allen, Andrew Miller and Michael Brantley, had the Indians offered and these three players accepted those offers,  the Indians' payroll would have already ballooned by over $21 million before all the raises and salary arbitration results.

Unfortunately, by not making a qualifying offer to any of these players, this small market team now gets nothing for these guys.    This is the difference between the Blue Jays who got a lottery ticket (Julian Merryweather) for a month of Josh Donaldson and could do it because they were out of the playoff race and the Indians, who needed all hands on deck.  If the Indians had been in the Central Division basement I am pretty sure all three of these guys would have been traded before September 1st.   However, we needed all hands on deck so we couldn't trade them and will get absolutely nothing for them.

Look, the Indians farm system is still in the mediocre-to-poor range, likely ranking about 25th in the upcoming organizational rankings.   We traded a lot of prospects and dumped a lot of suspects, one of whom became an all-star, in trying to go for it the last two years.   And it wasn't like our farm system was that strong before the beginning of the 2017 system.

So, while I totally understand why they wouldn't make qualifying offers to these guys, the fact that they didn't means that it will likely take the Indians even longer to be competitive again once the current window closes in a couple of years.   You would have to project huge trade returns for our best players at the end of their contracts as we start to rebuild.   It might happen but, frankly, we could be looking at a 10 year rebuild starting in 2022.  

It was the right choice for the short term but someone needs to start thinking long term here.   I would like my kids to have a contending team to root for and not be subjected to the teams I had to root for in the 70s and 80s.

So, front office, what are you going to do to bring in talent that will be major league ready in 2020 and 2021?   And not just bit player talent like Greg Allen.   Real impact talent you a young Michael Brantley and a young Jason Kipnis.   That is the real and only significant question I see going into 2019.

Off-season begins - dissecting the 40 man roster

OK< it's time to start looking ahead rather than looking backwards.  So let's start with the 40 man roster.

Right now it is at 46 as we still have 6 guys on the 60-day DL.   We also have 10 players who will be free agents once the World Series is over.

So let's go through the roster and see where we are heading in the off-season:

Locks to stay on the roster this winter:

C - Perez, Gomes, Haase
IF - Lindor, Ramirez, Alonso, Gonzalez, Diaz, Kipnis, Chang
OF - Allen, Martin, Naquin, Zimmer, Mercado
DH - Encarnacion
Pitchers - Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer, Bieber, Cimber, Hand, Clevinger, Otero, Plutko, Olson, Ramirez, Otero, Salazar, Goody, Anderson

On the bubble to be removed from the roster:

Adam Rosales, Brandon Barnes, James Hoyt, Jon Edwards, Ben Taylor, Eric Stamets, Brandon Guyer.

Prospects who will be added to the roster this winter:

Bobby Bradley, Sam Hentges

Prospects who have an outside chance of being added to the 40 man roster

Connor Marabell

SUMMARY

For maybe the first time in my memory the Indians have so few true Rule 5 prospects to worry about that they will have MANY spots left on their roster.

Right now we are looking at 33 roster spots (locks plus prospects added).  I think they will add Marabell so that gives them 34.   Realistically, none of the bubble guys should make this team next year and we can find guys who are just as good to sign to minor league contracts this winter.

Next we will talk about OUR free agents and which ones could be coming back.

Post playoffs hangover thoughts

Starting at the trade deadline last year we obtained and lost the following players via in season trades

Obtained:

Joe Smith
Jay Bruce
Josh Donaldson
Brad Hand**
Adam Cimber**
Leonys Martin**

**Under team control for 2019

Lost:

Francisco Mejia
Willi Castro
Thomas Pannone
Connor Capel
Samad Taylor
Julian Merryweather
Ryder Ryan

You can argue 2017 but I think it is a fair statement to say that none of the players we obtained either helped us make the playoffs those two years and it is pretty much a damn FACT that none of them impacted us winning a single round in the playoffs (duh!)

So what do we do now, knowing that some of our future has already gone out the door in futile trades?

The logical thing would say to just keep the band together as we will definitely make the playoffs next year.   While that is likely true (although there are no absolutes) do you really want to go through 2017 or 2018 Indians playoff baseball again next year?

And, despite knowing the outcome already, I vote for doing that.   The status quo.  No significant free agent signings at positions where we could play young guys.  No trades to improve the team where we lose valuable prospects.

Nothing.   We just do the status quo all the way through the season.   No July trades.   No August trades.  Nothing more that weakens our future.

It was hard enough to see Jesus Aguilar playing in the all-star game knowing we got nothing for him, not even a July lottery ticket.

I don't want to go through that again.

So, just like with LeBron, I am just going to be happy to get there and, if we don't make the playoffs next year, I will take solace in knowing that we didn't lose any prospects while treading water.

Or we could start blowing it up right now......But more on that later.

Stupid move!

How can I say anything bad about our manager who has once again brought us easily into the post-season even with multiple hurdles.

But I will say something that I have said before.

His use of his starting pitchers is befuddling to me.

Look, tonight Clevinger is pitching a gem, leading 1-0 after 6 innings.   He sits at 87 pitches.

Then the Indians score 10 runs in the 7th inning.

Clevinger sits in the dugout for an eternity.

Looking at the relevant stats Cleveinger's ERA dipped under 3.00 after the 6th inning.

So the game is essentially over.   Clevinger has the win and will finish the season with a great ERA (2.98).

Plus he sat all that time.

So what does Francona do?   For some inexplicable reason (edit: I get the reason now, so he can get to 200 innings) he sends a cold, tired pitcher out there.

He gets two outs, one on a line drive (edit: so he gets his 200 innings and has an ERA under 3.00, win-win for everyone) and then (edit: Francona leaves him in and he) gives up a double and is replaced.   Cimber comes in and gives up a run.

So what is the upshot of this:   Clevinger has to pitch after a long layoff, maybe damaging his arm.

His ERA ends the season over 3.00.   Hey, at least he got his 200 innings, which he had before he gives up the double.  Hey, its not bad but anything under 3 is something to hang your hat on and is a separator from most other starting pitchers.

So what Francona is doing is beyond me.   Yeah, he can say what he wants but there was NOTHING to be gained by leaving Clevinger in the game after he got to 200 innings, more to be lost than gained by putting him back in after the 10 run inning (+ is he got 200 innings, - is he pitched after sitting for a long time at the end of a long season and - he risked losing him sub 3 ERA) and everything to lose if he has residual effects from coming back cold after such a long layoff).  Let's hope there are no lasting effects on this kid's arm going into the playoffs.

Review of minor league predictions

Projection - Columbus 62-82 

Actual - 73-67, 0.5 games out of the playoffs

Comments - Well, the power of the minor league veteran, a good manager and a good organizational attitude actually paid dividends.   I have to admit I just don't get it.  I have seen AAA teams with many more veteran minor leaguers who would have really bad records.  I really expected this team to tank as we tended to bottom feed with the minor league veterans we had and the actual prospects at AAA were not good.   Congrats to the Clippers for the success they had.  

Projection -  Akron 86-58

Actual - 78-62

Comments - Well, even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while.   Even though not all of the prospects did as well as I anticipated, the team still had a good record and made it to the league finals.   

Prediction - Lynchburg - 76-68 - 

Actual -  71-66

Comments - Blind squirrel part deux.   This team, devoid of any real star prospects except for the late season promotion of Jones, still did well.

Prediction - Lake Count - 72-72

Actual - 60-79

Comments - I overshot the mark here significantly.   I think it was the combination of lack of veteran leadership and maybe not the best field staff for this group of guys.  I think they were never going to the playoffs with this team but I don't see how they finished this bad.

Prediction - Mahoning Valley 42-34

Actual - 42-33

Comment - The personnel matched the predictions but the influx of the college guys from last year's draft who only pushed up one level from last year was the backbone of the team, especially the pitching staff.   The 2018 draft, as it usually does, produced pitchers and enough solid position players that the record was great.   I don't see a lot of guys being impact players in the majors from this team but there will be some major leaguers from the 2018 Captains.

Prediction - AZL Indians 1 - 32-24 AZL Indians 2 - 20-36

Actual -  AZL Indians 1 - 36-18, AZL Indians 2 - 32-24

Comments - Wow, this really surprised me.   I didn't think there would nearly be enough talent to fill two teams but I was wrong.   The combination of some older prospects, including some older Latin guys and 2018 draftees who performed well really did the trick.   As I said previously, this was not done with ML rehab guys, it was mostly done with young, real prospects.   I could see a much larger than average number of guys from these teams eventually playing in the majors.

So, there you have it.  Great season in the player development system.  Everyone should be proud.   Now to continue the development and let's fix Will Benson and Quentin Holmes and we will all need sunglasses to view the future.

Thoughts for a Tuesday

The baseball games are oscillating between meaningless and interesting.  

It was pointed out last night on WTAM that the Indians lineup last night contained 9 former all-stars. That was interesting.  Just like Bieber pitching well was interesting.

That the Indians lost today, given their division and the fact that they have no chance in heck of catching Houston means that today's game, and almost all the rest of them in the regular season, are meaningless.

I'll be honest with you.   If we didn't have to get some momentum for the playoffs I would be happy if they lost every game the rest of the regular season.  Crazy?  Unless a miracle happen, no matter what:

• We will win the division
• We will play Boston in the first round and, likely, won't have home field advantage in the playoffs in any series this year.
• Kluber will likely not win the Cy Young Award unless he is unbelievable for the rest of the year AND we win his starts.

The only thing still in question is whether Jose Ramirez wins the AL MVP and that can happen if he just performs well.   It doesn't matter how many games the Indians win the rest of the way (see Trout, Mike).

There is really nothing tangible to be gained by winning a single game the rest of the year.  Intangible?  Yes.  

So, there is no tangible reason to win games. 

However, losing games, now that is something else!

Right now, assuming we don't sign a qualifying free agent this winter, we would draft 24th in each round in the 2019 draft.   If we go on a big losing streak we might end up drafting as high as 17th.  This not only gives us a chance at better players it also gives us a bigger draft budget to work with.  By my calculation, about $1.2 million more in bonus pool!

You play because there is something to play for.  Even though these guys are professionals and have pride and would never lose on purpose, here is a vote for extreme mediocrity the rest of the way...assuming they turn it on and everyone is healthy for the playoffs.

The required I told you so article about Thomas Pannone

Last July I bemoaned the article about the trade for Joe Smith which cost us LHP Thomas Pannone and Samad Taylor.

I had seen both play and thought it was a ridiculous price to pay for a redundant free-agent-to-be reliever.

Yes Smith was good for the Indians but it made no difference as they lost in the first round of the playoffs.

In other words, they would have MADE the playoffs and LOST in the playoffs with or without Smith.

Off-season rankings seemed to validate that the value the Indians gave up was not as great as I thought (neither Taylor or Pannone made Toronto's top 30 prospects) and more fuel was added to that first when Pannone was suspended for 50 games for use of performance-enhancing drugs, something he vehemently denied doing.

Well today Thomas Pannone beat the Cleveland Indians.  

Nah, nah, nah nah to the Cleveland Indians for letting Pannone go in worthless trade.

To be honest, Pannone may never be a solid major leaguer.   He was promoted simply because the rebuilding/retooling/who can tell Toronto Blue Jays are looking at players for the future.  I mean, the guy has like 6 starts in AAA in his career and not much more than that in AA.

But he beat the Cleveland Indians today providing one of the final nails in the coffin of their chances of having home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

Pannone has already provided two wins for his new team and likely will provide a number more.  

Hey, I was not against trading Pannone.   Just not for a redundant rental like Smith.   Said it then, say it now and will continue to say it in the future.  Hey, Josh Donaldson for a 26 year old middling prospect coming off TJ surgery?  I am on board with that gamble.  Just not the Joe Smith trade last year.  Never.  Ever..

Great Regular Season!

From an organization and affiliate standpoint, a great season for the Indians' minor league affiliates as5 of the 7 domestic affiliates make the playoffs and a 6th, Columbus, falls short by a half game after an end-of-season losing streak.

Winning in the minors may or may not correlate to winning in the majors but it is better than losing in the minors, for sure.

Here are some general thoughts without statistical backup for any of this:

• The Indians seemed to not use an extraordinary number of rehab guys or use the rehab guys they had, in Arizona or Mahoning Valley for extended periods of time to artificially make those teams stronger and get cheap wins that way.   This helps validate that the winning records were built on age-appropriate players.
• The Indians seemed, up and down their system, to use age-appropriate players.   Sure at AAA they have to use some minor league veterans but very few minor league veterans were used at AA and even fewer on the A league teams.   Again, I sure these numbers exist but my gut tells me the Indians did not manufacture wins for their minor league affiliates by stacking lower minors teams with older players.
• The Indians promoted guys at a good rate.   Beiber is a good example.   He could have spent half the year at AA and half the year at AAA and no one would have blinked.   Other guys either were promoted or were not promoted because they lost time to injuries.
• The Indians did not have a lot of superstars on these teams, just good solid prospects that their coaching staffs developed and turned into winners.

I think whenever you have teams with winning records in the minors it is a good thing.   It was a little disappointing that Columbus didn't make the playoffs in a year when the AAA championship will be settled in Columbus but, truth be told, it wasn't like the roster was gutted during the season as guys who started there mostly ended up there and some of them after stops in Cleveland.

I am a stats guy and so I have limited excitement about the minors except that I love the game in the minors and guys in the minors turn in, sometimes, to guys in the majors.   I will address this latter point later but, for right now, let's sit back and enjoy our 3 remaining teams in the playoffs and congratulates all the teams and their staffs in the minors for one of the best years in Indians' minor league history! 

One more in the playoffs

Congratulations to the Lynchburg Hillcats for being the second half champions and making the playoffs in the Carolina League as the Indians 4th minor league team to make the playoffs this year.

Update with tonight's results:

Columbus and Mahoning Valley lost tonight, making things tighter.   Here are the remaining scenarios with both teams having two games left.

If Columbus wins two games they are in.   If they split their last two it would depend on what Scranton Wilkes-Barre and Indianapolis did their last two games.  If they lose their last two games they definitely will not qualify as someone else would have a better winning pct. or record and would get the wildcard.

I don't know about you but it looks like the Clippers are out of gas.   No one is stepping up and the Indians calling up Eric Haase really does hurt.

As far as MV, they are in a better spot.   They are still 0.5 games ahead of Auburn in their division and, better than that, they are two games head of Staten Island and Brooklyn for the wildcard lead.  If the Scrappers win one of their last two games they are in the playoffs as the wildcard. If they win both they win their division.   If they lose two the only way they don't at least make a single elimination game is if Staten Island, which plays Brooklyn the last two games, wins both as they would have the better winning pct.   If Brooklyn wins two and MV loses two they are tied and my guess is that they will play a one-game playoff to see who actually makes the playoffs.

The Scrappers play West Virginia.   If they bring their A game they have a good chance but they didn't win tonight and have been playing not too well lately.  

Let's root hard for the Clippers and Scrappers.   I know that the Indians' minor leaguers have had a great run this year but it would be nice to have a historic season with 6 of our 7 US affiliates making the playoffs.

BTW, Akron is still one game behind Altoona, although they will still play Altoona in the first round of the playoffs.  

Thoughts on a Friday night

On a night where we say goodbye to our AZL teams for the season, some of those guys helped Mahoning Valley inch closer to the playoffs in the NY-Penn league.

Lynchburg also moved closed to a Carolina league playoff spot with their magic number now 2 heading into a doubleheader tomorrow.

Columbus holds a precarious 0.5 game lead over Toledo which is on an upswing.   Columbus is also tied with Scranton-Wilkes Barre for the wildcard.   I doubt whether the latter will come into play as the Clippers end their season with 3 against Toledo.  Indianapolis is only a game behind Columbus so they are very much in the thick of it, especially if they finish strong and Toledo and Columbus beat the crap out of each other.

Now, for the big news of the night: Kluber, Allen and Hand looked strong against Tampa Bay. Encarnacion flexed his muscles and Lindor and Greg Allen flexed their legs.  

Now, for the bigger news of the night: The Indians acquired a Cracker Jack box with Josh Donaldson inside.  Like all Cracker Jacks boxes you really don't know how good the prize is until you open the box and examine the contents.  For this they gave the Blue Jays a prospect of some value, whatever that means.   If you are a prospect geek like me that means definitely a top 20 pick and maybe a top 10 pick depending on Donaldson's performance.   I don't know if teams can still do this but, in the old days, the Blue Jays would get two lists to pick from.   If Donaldson is effective they will get a player from List A.  If he is a bust they will get a player of their choosing from List B.    The fact that the Indians would not even pay all of Donaldson's remaining salary is a little more ominous as that generally means that Toronto will get a better prospect.

Time will tell but we hope the prospect lost will not be a high ranking one and that Donaldson will be a huge find.

AZL Playoffs Start

Good luck to AZL 1 and AZL 2.   No matter what happens both teams have had very successful seasons.

To give you an idea of how rare this is here are the AZL Indians finishes since the Indians moved their rookie league team back to Arizona in 2009

2009 - 2nd in division, no playoffs
2010 - Last in division, no playoffs
2011 - 3rd in division, no playoffs
2012 - 2nd in division, no playoffs
2013 - 2nd in division, lost in first round of playoffs (first year playoffs expanded to quarterfinal format)
2014 - 1st in division, won AZL championship
2015 - Last in division, no playoffs
2016 - 3rd in division, lost in first round of playoffs
2017 - Last in division

To have two teams in the top 2 in their division and both teams make the playoffs is pretty amazing.  Note that this is only the second year of ML teams having more than one AZL team and I think only the Padres had two teams last year.

Congrats to the Indians organization.

Minor League Playoff Teams So Far and Updates

Congratulations to AZL Indians 2 who made the playoffs today due to a loss by AZL White Sox.  AZL Indians 1 and 2 both finished in the top 5 in winning percentage in the AZL this year.

Below is a list of the Indians farm teams and how they are doing in their race to try to make the playoffs:

Columbus  - 1 game behind Indianapolis for the lead in the IL West, they are currently 0.5 games ahead of Toledo (who they have now lost to 3 consecutive games) for the wildcard playoff spot.  They have 8 games left in the season with 4 against Toledo.

Akron - MADE THE PLAYOFFS - 1 game behind Altoona in the EL West, they will either be the champion or 2nd place team in that division.  They have 8 games left to play.

Lynchburg - Currently 5 games ahead of Wilmington for the CL North second half championship, they have a magic number of 5 with 7 games left to play including a big 4 game home series with Wilmington starting tonight.  For those of you who remember magic numbers, any Lynchburg win in this series is worth a 2 game reduction in their magic number.   If they would be fortunate enough to win 3 out of 4 from Wilmington this week they would clinch the playoff spot at home.  Otherwise, they would have to clinic it at Salem in their final series.

Lake County - Just playing for pride and better statistics at this point, they currently have the 2nd worst overall record in the Midwest League this year.

Mahoning Valley -  Currently have a 1.5 game lead over Auburn in the NY-P Pinckney Division with 7 games to play.   Putting on my Eeyore glasses, if you think they might lose the division they currently have a 1 game lead over Brooklyn for the wildcard spot.

AZL Indians 1 - MADE THE PLAYOFFS - AZL Central first and second half champions they are in a tight race with the AZL Dodgers and AZL Cubs 1 teams for the top two records in the AZL, which would give them a first round bye.   It will all come down to tonight's final regular season game.   If they win they will finish with the best record in the AZL league and a first round bye.   If they lose tonight they will finish with the 3rd best record in the AZL and have to play in the first round of the playoffs.  As all playoff series in this league are 1 game, there is a big difference between having to win 3 elimination games to win the championship and having to win 2, especially with the extra day to set up your rotation.

AZL Indians 2 - MADE THE PLAYOFFS - On the basis of AZL Indians 1 winning both halves in the AZL Central, the AZL Indians 2 won the other playoff spot in the Central based on having the 2nd best overall record in the division, finishing just slightly ahead of the AZL White Sox and the AZL Cubs 2.  They have one meaningless (except for pride and stats) regular season game left to play tonight and then will jump into the playoffs which I think start Wednesday.

DSL Indians and DSL Indians/Brewers - Neither team made the playoffs but there appear to be a number of exciting prospects on these teams that I hope can blossom next year in the AZL.  

Minor League Playoffs

OK, every year I tell myself it is not important.   But every year I am rooting for the Indians' farm teams to make the playoffs.

Well, we have a week or two, depending on the league, of games left and we have a number of exciting races:

Columbus: 1 game out of first place and 1 game ahead in the wild card race

Akron: 0.5 games ahead in their division and almost a lock to make the playoffs as either the #1 or #2 team in their division

Lynchburg: Looking like they will be the 2nd half champion in their league, thus making the playoffs.

Lake County - Out of the playoff race and, at this point, playing for pride and to pad statistics

Mahoning Valley - 1 game out of both their division championship and the wild card after their recent 8 game losing streak.

AZL 1 - Guaranteed a playoff shot as the first half champion.   Can help out AZL 2 by winning their division.

AZL 2 - 0.5 games behind the AZL White Sox IF AZL 1 wins the second half championship, as well.  So they need to keep winning and hope AZL 1 does, as well.

DSL Indians - Almost never a playoff contender, the same holds true this year.

So, if you root for farm teams of the Indians to make the playoffs then it is as exciting a time as I can remember to be a fan of the Indians' minor league teams.

I know it doesn't matter...but nevertheless it is cool.

Am I dreaming here?

I have been following the Indians minor league teams for a long, long time.

So what I am about to say next comes with a lot of experience behind it.

I have never been so excited about the prospects I am hearing about in the Arizona League.

Every year there are 2, 3, maybe even 5 guys I find interesting. 

But this year, there are just so many guys I am excited about.   Having two AZL teams was the best move the Indians have made in their minor league system in a while.

Forget that both teams have a winning record.

Forget that some of the guys are a little older.

There are exciting prospects putting up great numbers.   Consider this list:

Rainer Diaz - a catcher hitting .400.  Francisco Mejia hit .305 in the AZL and the Indians were extremely excited about him.

Brayan Rocchio - There were supposed to be two guys coming out of Latin America who signed last year who were supposed to be players to watch: George Valera and Aaron Bracho.   Well the latter got hurt and the former has disappeared from the lineup.   In the meantime Rocchio has vaulted up in performance.   As a SS who is hitting, he is a guy to watch.

Bo Naylor - The early returns on this guy are that he can hit and he take a walk.   He looks every bit of a HS first round pick playing in the AZL and they are giving him playing time at different positions, something they should have done earlier with Mejia.

Raynel Delgado - Didn't know what to think when the Indians gave this guy $900,000 when he was projected as only a 3rd or 4th round pick.   But he looks good now, especially as a middle infielder who can hit.

Korey Holland - While he may be a long development process guy, he is showing signs that he can run, hit and take a walk.  He Ks way too much but as a late round pick, he looks worth the gamble we made on him.

Gionti Turner - His performance could be a mirage in the Arizona sun as he isn't exactly an on-base machine.   But the most coarse of stats, batting average, looks really good for him and, like Holland, as a low-round high school signee, he looks worth the money we paid him, especially since he, too, is being trained to play multiple positions.

Marcos Gonzalez - He is becoming a hitting middle infielder and, as such, is exciting.

Jonathon Rodriguez - Another work in progress like Holland, he is perfectly positioned to lag about a year to a year and a half behind the other guys on this list, giving the Indians more of a pipeline if they take the opportunity to let him develop slowly.

Michael Cooper  - Like Turner, basically a lottery ticket late round pick (but in 2017) he is looking solid this year.

Michael Jerez - Old for a Latin player in this league, you still have to like what he is doing in the AZL.   He is starting to hit for average, has shown good power this year (his second in the league) and is taking a walk.   Although not high on my list due to his age and previous experience, I like him.   In previous years he would have been one of my top prospects on this team.

There are other guys who you could name: Quentin Holmes, Valera, Bracho, Lenny Torres, Ethan Hankins, Ignacio Feliz, Yefferson Yannuzzi, Matt Turner, Dante Mendoza and Bryan Lavatisda.  There are probably more Latin pitchers and like Oviedo last year, I can't ferret them out by their raw numbers.  

But when I can pull 20 names out of the air of guys I like on our two AZL teams, it is pretty impressive, especially when none of those guys are extremely old or experienced for this league.

So, for those of you looking years down the road, it is very bright in the distance and it IS from an on-coming train...filled with Indians prospects.

Indians Top 50 Prospects as of today

A first look at what I think the Indians top 50 prospects look like after the July trades.   If I have forgotten anyone (maybe who was hurt all year) let me know.

1. Triston McKenzie
2. Nolan Jones
3. Ethan Hankins
4. Oscar Mercado
5. Tyler Freeman
6. Oscar Gonzalez
7. Luis Oviedo
8. Bo Naylor
9. Marcos Gonzalez
10. Yandy Diaz
11. Adam Plutko
12. Raynel Delgado
13. Lenny Torres
14. Aaron Civale
15. Yainer Diaz
16. George Valera
17. Eli Morgan
18. Andrew Calica
19. Bobby Bradley
20. Yu Chang
21. Eric Haase
22. Brayan Rochio
23. Gabriel Rodriguez
24. Henry Martinez
25. Aaron Braccho
26. Will Benson
27. Yefferson Yannuzzi
28. Zach Plesac
29. Nick Sandlin
30. Jose Baez
31. Junior Sanguitin
32. Ignazio Feliz
33. Jean Carlos Mejia
34. Michael Jerez
35. Jhonkensy Noel
36. Korey Holland
37. Gionti Turner
38. Logan Ice
39. Connor Marabell
40. Shao-Ching Chang
41. Ernie Clement
42. Sam Hentges
43. Richard Palacios
44. Quentin Holmes
45. Roberto Hernandez
46. Mitch Brown
47. Ben Krauth
48. Brady Aiken
49. Jose Fermin
50. Juan Hillman
51. James Karinchak
52. Kirk McCarty
53. Luis C. Garcia
54. Julian Merryweather
55. Ka'i Tom