The Least Fun Night of the Baseball Season So Far

 Ok, still really pissed about the Guardians' game.  This is what happens when things are not going your way.  I did have some comments:

• This is what when you let a rebuilding team like the Royals hang around.  They steal games from you at the end if your performance is just a little off.  Yeah, we won the series but if we win today we have reached the .500 mark and enter the weekend on the upswing while Minnesota is on the downswing.  Momentum, folks.  It's how we buried the White Sox and Twins last September and its what we need now...and today we didn't get it.
• I applaud Ramirez for making it on his steal of home with two outs in the 10th.  But, below the surface, it was a stupid percentage move born out of desperation and a sense that Gimenez had no chance of coming through.  And that has been the problem with Ramirez.  He tries to do too much and, in so doing, often doesn't do anything, like the other night when, in extra innings, they were doing everything they could to walk him but he struck out, swinging at maybe 4 balls that were no in te strikezone.  So, kudos to you, Jose Ramirez, for making a mad dash for the ages...but that is not how TEAMS win baseball games.
• Furthering that poinig, when Stephan was struggling in the 8th there was a mound visit.  Jose, Rosario and Gimenez were there with Naylor but in the middle of the meeting Jose walked away, taking Rosario and Gimenez with him, leaving Naylor alone to give Stephan encouragement after the meeting with Bo Naylor and Stephan broke up.  Seemed odd to me that the other three infielders just walked away.
• Really pissed that the only ABs that Freeman and Fry got yesterday were in the 9th inning against a position player.  Damned if you do and damned if you don't.  I doubt that they were motivated to try hard as you don't want to run up the score on a rebuilding team with a very bad record that is getting killed that game.    In fact, against one of the worst teams in baseball that was their only two ABs.  Freeman should have played today for Rosario, who ended up going 0-5, chasing 3 unhittable pitches in the 9th, one on the very first pitch.    
• Don't know what is wrong with Stephan but after Tuesday and today, man, the guy needs to get his head on right.  Clase...I thought he was done with the blowing saves...but not so much!
• Finally, will we EVER get a challenge right?  OUR announcers, I think, were singing the praises last night for the ROYALS challenage crew...but not ours.  Says something, doesn't it?

  Then, to make myself feel a little better about baseball, I decided to watch some minor league baseball.

• Parker Messick making his A+ debut and, at least for today, it was exposed that pitching against experienced hitters at high A is much different than playing against 19 year olds at low A.  4 1/3, 8 H 7 ER, 3 BB, 4K and 3 HRs.  Plus the guy looks like more than his 235 lb weight and A LOT heavier than he looked at the beginning of the season in Lynchburg.  When he did throw his FB he was only throwing 91. 
• On a night where you might have thought Messick's performance was the worst in the system, here comes Ross Carver.  1 and 2/3 and 8 ER.
• Our scouting people must just really suck as Boyd, Hajjar and Carver just suck while Jones, Miller and Benson are helping their ML teams are Vargas is in AAA.  The only thing we have to show for trading these 4 guys is Juan Brito.  And the other guys we got back are not just mediocre.  They are so pathetic that it is almost embarrassing that this was all we could get for these major leaguers.   These people should be embarrassed by how bad a job they did in these trades.  And where is our PTBNL for Miller?
• Our 2022 draft was on display again at Lake County as Furman displayed his .184 average and Lampe's .212.

All in all, a pathetic day to watch the Guardians and their affiliates.  Hopefully tomorrow is better...and the Guardians better figure out the leadership within the team as I think it is lacking and misplayed right now.

2023 Amateur Draft - Part 10 - Thought Process Before and During the Draft

 OK, just looking at lists, scouting reports and mock drafts and here are my thoughts about what thought processes go into making selections.

As an exercise I am going to give you three truncated scouting reports (all from MLB Pipeline) for high school shortstops who have been linked to Cleveland  as their first round pick in 3 mock drafts from different sources.  

• Player #1 - Bats: R, Scouting grades: Hit:50, Power 55, Run: 50, Arm 55, Field: 50, Overall: 55

Synopsis of scouting report:  He is all about projection. Plus raw power, some issues about pitch selection and quality of ABs. Tick above average runner, has enough arm and range to stay at SS.  Could end up with plus grades across the board if everything goes well.  Won't turn 18 until this fall.

• Player #2: Bats: L, Scouting grades: Hit: 60, Power: 50, Run:50, Arm 55, Field: 50, Overall: 50

Synopsis of scouting report:  Advanced hitter who makes repeated hard contact with pretty left handed swing.  Gap to gap hitter with some ability to pull the ball with authority.   All-state WR as a junior but stopped playing football to focus on baseball.  Average runner with solid arm and steady defender at SS but will probably move to another position as a pro.  Won't turn 18 until aftere the draft.

• Player #3 - Bats R, Scouting grades: Hit: 45, Power: 50, Run: 65, Arm: 55, Field: 55, Overall: 50

Synopsis of scouting report: Has gained strength, can drive the ball to all fields, stiff swing which may lead to power-over-hit profile.  Plus runner who can likely stay at SS and has played some center field, has a lot of helium on some draft boards.

So what would you do if you were Cleveland and had to draft one of these guys?

All three are top HS SS draft prospects.  Besides the fact that the first one might go way before the Guardians draft and the last one has recently jumped from the 80s to 30s in prospect rankings and the 2nd one falls about where the Guardians first round draft slot is but hits left-handed, there is a case to be made for and against all of them.

That is what this post in all about, really.   Which one would you take: The guy with great power potential, the guy with a great hit tool or the guy with great speed who has bolted up the rankings heading into the draft?

Now, I am not saying the Guardians are taking one of these guys in the first round of the upcoming draft but, if they are, I am taking #2.  Here is why:

1. He has an advanced hit tool, easily the best of the 3 and has the best hit tool I saw in the ranking of HS draft prospects, all positions included, going into this draft.

2. He is an athlete who, likely, is a tough kid, being an all-star wide receiver.(not that it correlates but I can think of another great LH hitting major leaguer who was a standout wide receiver, Kirk GIvson)

3. He could slide over to second base in a system flush with true SS guys.

4. He grades out well in terms of all his skills, meaning that his development pathway could be shortened as his hit tool will allow him to move quickly like Tyler Freeman did (remember Freeman lost almost a whole year to shoulder surgery)

5. Even though we failed to draft the correct left-handed hitters last year, it doesn't mean the premise is flawed, just the execution on WHICH left-handed hitters to draft.  There are still many more RH pitchers in the majors than LH pitchers.

The players above are:

1. Arjun Nimmala

2. Colt Emerson (also an Ohio kid)

3. Sammy Stafura

I fear, unfortunately, that the Guardians may be fooled by Stafura's rapid rise (ranked #86 last week and #32 this week) and may choose him over Emerson (currently ranked #29) in part because Stafura hits right-handed.  The Guardians may be convinced they can develop Nimmala's and Stafura's hit tools but our recent experience in developing high school hitters with a questionable hit tool says otherwise.  When a guy comes out of HS with a great hit tool (Tyler Freeman) history shows that he can be developed within the Guardians' system.

Again, not saying one of these three would be drafted if all were available when Cleveland drafts in the first round, but everything SHOULD point to drafting Emerson if it is between these three.  The problem is that I don't trust Barnsby.  He was burned last year with drafting too many LH hitters who have really failed miserably except for DeLauer, who was hurt.  His 2022 draft is falling apart and if Nimmala is not there I believe he outthinks himself and we end up with Stafura who goes the same way Preston Tucker and Yordys Valdes have gone and we give up the chance to draft Emerson who, to me, looks like a left-handed version of Tyler Freeman with that sort of upside or more, given his football pedigree.

We need this draft to be successful after last year's draft which looks really bad right now.  Emerson makes me more confident that will happen whereas Stafura and, to some extent, Nimmala, make me worry we might get nothing out of this draft in the first round.  We can't have that happen this year.  It would be really bad for our farm system if it does.

If Sammy Stafura is a member of the Cleveland Guardians this year while Emerson is still on the board, it will be a sign that the 2023 draft could turn out as bad or worse than the 2022 one is looking like it will be.

I don't get Francona's managing!

Watching the end of the game today it hit me again.   I don't get how our manager manages.  

• Pinch running Freeman for Bell so that he later has to pinch hit Arias.
• Pinch running Straw for Freeman.  Then failing to pinch hit Bell for Straw with the game on the line.
• Not controlling his players, allowing them the latitude so that they think it is OK to swing and miss the way Ramirez and Naylor did in the 10th.   Your manager causes your players to be disciplined players...or not.  
• Not understanding that it is your offense that is killing you, not your defense and failing to make that assessment in most of the years he has managed here (Clement, Chang, Miller, Arias, Zimmer, Mercado., the list goes on)
• Overusing his veteran pitchers trying to win games and doing so many other things that hurt that effort.

Hey, the guy is the best manager in Cleveland history and, as Antonnetti is doing, Francona should be given the keys to the kingdom and he should manage, no matter what, until he (Francona) feels like he doesn't want to manage any longer.  

I get all that and I still see us, with our current players, having a chance to win our division and maybe, like last year, steal the first round of the playoffs.  

I honestly think we can win in spite of all of our issues, including Francona's managing.  

But it would be sooooo much easier to accomplish that if we just didn't put our players in a situation where they will fail and create an atmosphere that is so desparate that our two best hitters feel they have to go out of the strikezone on 5 of the 6 strikes in the 10th with the tieing run on second because they thought they had to do it all themselves...and not being disciplined enough to just keep the line moving.  

We can wn with all the problems on this team...it would just be nice if it could be easier...and it can be.  But it starts with the manager.

Thoughts for a Friday - Welcome to Summer Version

•  Currently Baseball Reference.com has Cleveland with a 34.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.2% chance of winning the World Series.  In comparison, due to strength of schedule left to play, Minnesota, 1 game ahead of Cleveland in the standingss, has a 62.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 1.4% chance of winning the World Series.  So, when I see Francona playing the same guys night in and night, even against the A's, it tells me he, and the rest of management, is pretty desperate about winning games right now so they can make a determination about whether they are buyers or sellers at the deadline.  This has led to one pinch running assignment for Tyler Freeman and one AB in two appearances for Fry in a series against the least effective team in baseball.   I don't expect that to change much but it would be nice if Fry was the firstbaseman instead of Naylor tonight with Bell DHing and Freeman started at second base for Gimenez with us facing a tough lefty in Wade Miley.  I doubt that we see both those moves as Francona loves his veterans and damn the matchups or sitting a guy who isn't producing or any fear that he could burn these guys out now.   We are already saddled with Arias in RF right now because Francona won't give Fry a chance out there and Freeman was, truth be told, never trained in the outfield as was promised (NOTE: Shagging balls in batting practice is NOT training).  
• Watching Arias reminds me of watching myself in little league.  While I was a decent athlete and outfielder, given my inability to hit anything faster than a slow pitch softball, I was a 3 true outcome guy in little league: strikeout, walk, HBP.
• People think the next month is important as it will determine whther we are buyers or sellers at the deadline.  While true, this period is turning out to be very important for our farm system, as well.  As I have pointed out before our farm system is falling apart with multiple prospects in the teens of our top 30 having miserable seasons.  In fact, except for Juan Brito, I can't think of even one guy in the entire system who is having a breakout year.  So as we get into warmer weather throughout the country I hope to see some better performances out of these guys although I don't really believe it is going to happen.   When you look at Nikhazy's start last night it is apparent to me that Mace, Cantillo and Nikhazy are not top level prospects and maybe should be in the late teens or early 20s at this point...and they are the best of the lot right now.
• Thanks to Cleveland Guardians Prospective for the video of Chase DeLauter's first professional HR last night.  That is encouraging but I couldn't help but think of Kirk Gibson's 1988 WS HR off of Dennis Eckersley as I watched DeLauter circle the bases.  It looked to me like that was as fast as DeLauter could, or would allow himself, to move.  So what we saw last night might be bittersweet unless he was really just basking in the moment and taking the low and slow jog around the bases to commenerate a milestone moment in his life.
• Gotta love an article that is titled "A Buy Low Trade Offer to the Guardians for Shane Beiber" written by a guy in NY.  In this 'offer' the Mets give us their #17 and #25 prospects in a weak system and a failed prospect in Mark Vientos.  Besides being comical because the Mets should be sellers at the deadline, looking at the likely trajectory of their season as well as the comical return, this article does show one thing through analytics: people throughout the country are seeing that Beiber, while he is OUR ace, is likely not even the 2nd best starter on a true contender, being mostly a downside 2 or and upside 3 starter on those teams.  He simply is not dominant any more and it is far from a secret throughout baseball.  
• MLB Pipeline's Jonathon Mayo just dropped his most recent mock draft.  I had to laugh (and cry) at the same time.  In the 39 picks before the start of the second round, the lowest ranked prospect selected was Joe Whitman (46) by the Ahtletics at slot 39.  THAT IS IF YOU DON'T COUNT HIS PROJECTION FOR THE GUARDIANS FIRST ROUND SELECTION!  With that pick Mayo predicts the Guardians will draft light hitting HS SS Sammy Stafura, the #86 prospect in the draft.   It is rather revealing that Mayo would apparently have such little respect for Scott Barnsby that he would think the Guardians would be the only team who drafts a lowly rated prospect in the first round.   However, looking at the 2022 draft results from the Guardians I can see how he might think that Barnsby would be stupid enough to draft THAT HS shortstop when someone like Ohio-born Colt Emerson, not to mention Eldridge, Lombard Jr. and McGonigle would have been in play at that point, according to Mayo's projected selections.   I hope I am wrong but it is really weird that this is the only questionable pick, based on slot and ranking, that he would see happening in the first round.  Could be total conjecture by Mayo and total coincidence based on Barnsby's botched 2022 draft, but, generally, where there is smoke there is fire.  Quick, someone run for the firs extinguisher.
• As a followup to the previous bullet, Joe Lampe's monthly BAs are .348, .181 and, in June, .103 with OPS of .908, .618, .404.  Nate Furman is hitting .177 in Lake County after his promotion and 22 year old Guy Lipscomb is hitting .217 in June...at Low A.  I know injuries are classic draft confounders so Campbell, DeLauter, DeLucia and Zibin being out is, likely, just bad luck.  But with Parker Messick STILL at low A and not dominating even the way Will Dion did last year with similar stuff and a much lower pedigree, the 2023 draft is soooo important...as well as the next month will be for some of these guys to determine their true prospect status which, right now, is more like suspect or organizational player than prospect.

Go Guardians!

2023 Amateur Draft - Part 9 - The First Three Rounds - Here Are Some Thoughts

 Looking at where teams start to deviate from top prospects lists, thinking your team is going to draft a top prospect, e.g., in the top 250 prospects from MLB Pipeline, is a fair presumption in rounds 1-4, less likely in round 5 and much less likely in round 6 and then very unlikely in rounds 7 and beyond unless your team spends one of its draft picks on a 'flyer' which is loosely defined as a highly rated player who has fallen due to concerns about signability or injury.  Remember that Shane Beiber was a 4th round pick.

• As was said in an earlier post, I think it is reasonable to think that in the first 4 rounds there are 5 players available in each of those draft slots that the Guardians, based on their draft slot, could select who have roughly the same ability and theoretical chance of having success (as defined by a 3+ season ML career) and that those players should fall comfortably within the consensus top prospect lists.  The reason that mock drafts in the slot where the Guardians are drafting seldom are accurate is that those of us who do mock drafts don't have detailed information that would allow us to determine which players are the best AND best fit for an organization.  Pundits look at available talent, past drafting trends and organizational needs to make their educated guesses as to WHO a team might pick but we really have no idea who the team SHOULD pick as we don't have enough data.  Plus, as with all professional sports drafts, draft day is a fluid thing with some great prospects falling on draft day and other, lesser prospects who a team was sure would be available when they picked are long gone before that slot.

What we all need to hope is that our team

• Picks the best player within that 5 player grouping using the detailed information they have
• Doesn't gamble that they can draft a player that they think is better than what the consensus thinks of that player
• Doesn't pick a lower-rated player because they think he would be a better fit for the organzation
• Doesn't draft for organizational need if it causes them to draft a lower rated player than their draft slot grouping would suggest they should.

So, with all that in mind, let's talk about the first 3 rounds and which appropriately talented player groups might be available when the Guardians draft in each round.

Round 1 (#23 overall)

The Guardians have been damn poor at developing HS players with their early round picks.  The issue in the way this draft is lining up is that the grouping of players who the Guardians can choose from at this slot could be all high school players.   Unless a star college player falls to them they would likely have to draft a lower-ceiling/higher floor college player who was rated below this slot if they decided they HAD to have a college player at this slot to maximize their chances of getting a high percentage chance of success at this pick.

The appropriate guys (based on rating only) who I think will be available at this pick are:

• Charlee Soto RH HS pitcher
• Josh Knoth RH HS pitcher
• Thomas White LH HS pitcher
• Colt Emerson HS SS

As far as college players, Brock Wilken, Nolan Schanuel, Braden Taylor and Chase Davis underwhelm me at this point as they all seem to have significant warts to their game for a first round pick.  Should Yohandy Morales or Tommy Troy fall to this slot they would be better college selections but that is why they probably will NOT falll but, rather, rise from their pre-draft rankings.  Again, in the realm of the unlikely, if Enrique Bradfield Jr. would EVER fall to us this would be a no-brainer for the Cleveland organization who values speed and defense packaged along with a good bat control, left-handed swing.  I am not as high on him as others as I see a guy who migh flame out against better pitching as he moves up the minor league ladder but he would certainly not be a bad pick at this slot.  Unless a Hurston Waldrep would fall to them, I don't see any reason why they would take a college pitcher at this point as the best ones are clearly gone by this point and the 2nd tier, in my opinion, is not talented enough for this slot. One more point: if  Chase Dollender would fall to them due to his up-and-down performance this year, I would pass on him because, frankly, if he falls to us this former potential #1 overall pick has problems that are judged too serious to justify a high bonus.  

Second Round (#58 overall)

At this pick I see a better balance of college and HS players who I think would be good fits for the Guardians, including college pitchers who the Guardians may favor here

• Hunter Owen LHP Vanderbilt
• Alonzo Tredwell RHP UCLA
• Myles Naylor HS 3B
• Kemp Alderman OF Ole Miss
• Juaron Watts-Brown RHP Oklahoma St.

The college pitchers who likely would be available here are, in my opinion, the type that the Guardians finishing school for college pitchers could maximize and I think would be good value this low in the 2nd round.  Owen and Treadwall are particularly tall which might scare the Guardans away...or not.  Myles Naylor would be an appropriate pick at this point and would be my sentimental choice although I think if he is available at #58 he is a better fit at #62 after we grab a college arm or bat here.  Alderman has loud numbers with 19 HR against good competition at Ole Miss this year with some ability to catch as well as play his more likely LF destination.

Competitive Balance (#62 overall)

This is the point it might get a little dicey as guys you THINK would be available here are sometimes taken much earlier as teams covet their skillset higher than what the rankings would say.  Added to this is that the current draft rankings predict that close to this slot there will be no slot-appropriate college picks available and the Guardians may be forced to make a HS player their selection or risk drafting a significantly lower-rated player if they feel they MUST go with a lower risk (read: COLLEGE) player here.

• Myles Naylor
• Hunter Owen
• Steven Echevarria HS RHP
• Brandon Sprout RHP Florida
• Zander Mueth HS RHP

Aside from Naylor, who I still believe will be here at this point, the rest of these guys are pitchers.  As said above, there is a lack of good college picks at this point.  The most intriguing to me is college senior Brandon Sproat who has had a really up and down season at Florida and was much higher rated earlier in the spring than he is now.  If the 'finishing school' is still considered an uber strength of the Guardians' player development program a flyer of Sproat here (he is currently ranked #79 by MLB Pipeline) might turn out to be a great investment down the road for the Guardians, as they will be buying low on where he was early in the season although overpaying for where he is now, meaning he is likely to be there at this pick meaning the Guardians can appropriately focus resources on doing a deeper dive on him before the draft (e.g., bringing him in for a pre-draft workout).

Third Round pick (#93)

If you look closely you will notice that most mock drafts don't go down this low.  The reason is obvious: It is sooooo tough to figure out who will be available that it is tough to plan for this pick.  That being said, this is the first round of the second day of the draft so teams will have had a chance to catch their breaths after the first night and so might have a good look at who is still available.  Last year there were few players drafted in this round who were ranked higher than where they were drafted and this round featured a lot of guys drafted SIGNIFICANTLY above where they were rated and 27 of the 30 picks were college players in this round.  With all that in mind here are 5 guys I think the Guardians may consider here:

• Michael Carico C Davidson
• Jaxson Wiggins RHP Arkansas
• Grant Taylor, RHP, LSU
• Homer Bush JR. OF, Grand Canyon University
• Tanner Hall RHP, Southern Mississippi

Looking at the guys who might be available I am thinking the Guardians might be going for a college player here.  Once you get down to this level in the draft all draft prospects have warts.  Carico is more like a Dalton Rushing-type prospect with his bat carrying him.  Wiggins and Taylor are both 2023 TJ surgery guys which might scare away some teams but their surgeries were early enough in the year that Cleveland's choice to not play their draftees in their draft year may turn out to be more perfect for them than it would be for some other teams who value that first year as a learning experience.  When you think of Hall think of Messick or maybe Eli Morgan as his fastball is below average and he has to have pinpoint control on his off-speed pitches or he will get hammered.  Still, near the end of the 3rd round this might be a good place for him.  Bush Jr. is a medium ceiling/low floor pick here and I am not advocating it but the Guardians do value speed and he certainly is fast enough to catch their eye if they don't draft a speedy outfielder early in the draft.  I am not advocating Bush and feel one of the 5 or so HS players whose talent slots nicely at this draft slot would be a better pick if they were slot bonus signings.

Proposing these lists is a fun exercise but so much changes during the draft that it is hard to predict.  That being said, I see this draft differently than a lot of people. I see this as a weak draft after the second round and if the Guardians do, as well, they may choose to enter the second day looking for low ceiling/high floor college players (inured or low velocity guys with the potential to tick up) and, like last year (Humphries and Zibin), end the second day with a couple of HS flyers who require over slot bonuses to sign.  

There will be one more pre-draft post in this series (Part 10) where we check on the above guys one more time and look for news and movement on draft boards to see who might sneak into our discussion.  Remember that last year I never thought we would have a chance to get Daneil Susac he fell towards draft time.  Although we didn't take him the fact that he fell that far on draft day shows how things can change as the draft approaches.

2023 Amateur Draft - Part 8 - Factoids About 2021 and 2022 Drafts To Think About

• In 2021 and 2022, using MLB Pipeline's Top 250 Draft Prospect Rankings, here are the teams who went outside of this prospect list in rounds 1-6.  Remember in 2021 that the last pick in round 6 was the 192th overall pick in this draft and in 2022 it was the 196th pick.
• 2021
• Round 1 - 0
• Round 2 - 0
• Round 3 - 3
• Round 4 - 9
• Round 5 - 16
• Round 6 - 23
• 2022
• Round 1  - no teams selected a player not listed in the top 250
• Round 2 - 0
• Round 3 - 2
• Round 4 - 9
• Round 5 - 14
• Round 6 - 18

Bottom line: Teams pick highly ranked prospects almost exclusively through round 3, 70% of teams are still picking ranked prospects in round 4, 50% in round 5 and around 35% in round 6.

• Here is the breakdown of players selected in 2021 and 2022 who were selected in the first 5 rounds (about the top 165 picks) who were not ranked:
• 2021
• Round 3 - I college junior, 1 college senior and one HS 
• Round 4 - 1 college junior, 5 college seniors and 3 HS
• Round 5 - 1 junior college player, 4 college juniors, 8 college seniors, 3 HS 
• 2022
• Round 3 - 1 college junior, 1 HS
• Round 4 - 2 college sophomores, 4 college juniors, 4 college seniors 1 HS
• Round 5 - 1 junior college, 1 college sophomore, 6 college JRs, 4 college SRs

In 2021 14 of 28 unranked players drafted in the first 5 rounds of the draft were college seniors.  In 2022 that number dropped to 8 of 25.  Teams draft college seniors because they have no leverage and will sign for lower than slot bonuses.  It is a way, in the first 10 rounds, to save money that a team can spend signing players to overslot bonuses during the draft.  All but 2 of the unranked players in the first few rounds of 2021 + 2022 signed for above slot bonuses and 80% signed for bonuses lower than slot.  This bears out the idea that teams are looking to save money with those picks.

So, from these stats we can see that teams almost never draft a player ranked out of the top 250 draft prospects in the first 3 rounds, seldom draft them in round 4, about half the teams don't draft unranked players in round 5 and 65% of teams draft unranked players by the time round 6 rolls around.

These two drafts are too early in their development life cycle to determine how effective teams were in drafting unranked players in the top 6 rounds of the draft.  But this shows that it is not common, in the first 5 rounds of the drat to draft unranked players and not close to a certainty in round 6, with this strategy being used a lot with college seniors and other unranked draft prospects (juco, college juniors and sophomores and HS players) who are willing to sign for underslot bonuses.

Tuesday Coffee - The Gavin Williams Era Begins, What's Up Next From The Minor League Pipeline and Watching Grass Grow

GAVIN WILLIAMS DAY

In our wildest dreams as prospect geeks I don't think any of us imagined, in this era of Super 2s, Arbitration (in general), minor league options, crunched roster space, Rule 5 draft swords of Dame\ocles and too-soon-for-a-small-market-club free agency, that we would see Tanner Bibee, Logan T. Allen and Gavin Williams on our ML roster this year.

Kudos to the FO for not just going with guys like Hunter Gaddis and stretching out Xzavion Curry and Cody Morris in an attempt to plug cracks in the Hoover dam with duct tape and Elmer's Glue while still maintaining the ML virginity of our top pitching prospects.

Today has officially been designated Gavin Williams Day at Cleveland Guardians Perspective and we all anxiously look forward to his first start.   We know there will be clunkers along the way as we have seen with Bibee and Allen but the hope is that Williams, if he pitches anything like he did at AA/AAA, will bring more stability to that rotation and give us a chance to win every time he toes the rubber.

Today is also "OMG, what have we done?" day in the back offices of the Cleveland Guardians where the analytics people, bean counters and the-people-responsible-for-figuring-out-who-is-protected-from-the-Rule-5-group are all in a panic as to how they are going to do their jobs to make the Guardians competitive for the long-term while keeping the payroll under control and keeping our middling prospects in our system to avoid another Santander moment.

WATCHING GRASS GROW

Following minor league performances on a daily basis is a cross between looking for real oases in the desert and watching grass grow.  In that small timeframe you can't tell if something is real or a mirage and you feel, sometimes, like it is watching grass grow as volcanic eruption-like changes rarely occur and it is more like improvement is being obtained on a glacial-march level of speed.

That being said, here are some thoughts about the minor leaguers

• Christian Cairo, along with Yordys Valdes, have been slow-developing prospects, if I was to put it in the most politically correct terms.   Another way to say it was that they were light-hitting middle infielders when they were drafted and were looking more like organizational players up to this year.  However, wth Cairo's recent OB streak and Valdes starting to at least hit singles, they are looking a little better. Probably not top-30 better but certainly in the top 50.
• The AZL team is really interesting.  I see batting stats inflated in that league given that play in Arizona and that the pitching in this league appears generally suspect with the Guardians pitching being more suspect than others.  Bottom line: take batting stats with a grain of salt unless you are looking at XBH numbers.  While slap hitters can prospect at this level and in the DSL, power potential is something that is much more rare at this level for age-appropriate or underage players.  Players like Chourio and Rafael Ramirez, Jr. remain strong prospects but t is hard to get a read on whether other guys are putting up numbers that are real or just that are the result of feeding on bad or inexperienced pitching.
• Tyler Thornton has 48 Ks in 23 innings at Lake County.  The deep thinkers need to promote him to AKron to see what we have in him.   These video game numbers are signs that we might have something special and/or that his stuff is simply too dominant at Lake County to help his development if he stays in A+ ball..
• Robert Lopez is the latest blade of grass to shoot up as we watch our yard of prospects grow slowly.  As we really need catching prospects in our minor league system (Daniel Susac and Dalton Rushing are looking pretty good right now compared to Chase DeLauter) Lopez, Cedeno, Izturiz and other international free agent signee catchers are so important to the continuity of our competitiveness as one of them has to hit big, in my opinion.
• I love the potential of the Lynchburg lineup right now with Benjamin, Genao, Antunez, Collado, Lopez, Devers and Saduy but these guys are so raw some of them are really going to have to make an extensive step forward to make them top prospects.  Right now, except for Genao, they all look like wait-and-see guys.
• Speaking of watching grass grow, the Clippers and Rubber Ducks looked yesterday like a couple of teams grinding through the middle of a long season.  By that I mean that no one stood out and some guys, like Jose Tena, are not helping themselves.  Tena, in particular, looks uninspired and undisciplined in his approach in the field, on the bases and, especially, at the plate.  

WHAT'S UP NEXT FROM THE MINOR LEAGUES

With Allen, Bibee and Williams up and Espino injured, this minor league system is starting to lose impact prospects at the top.  Currently, Rocchio is ready for the majors and Valera needs more reps in order to be ready, although he is close enough he could be here for good before the end of the season.  Besides those two guys, the rest of the hitters at AA and AAA are very suspect at this point with Noel's advancement being non-existent at this point and Martinez, Tena and even Halpin's development being disappointing.  AAAA guys like Pries, Schneeman and major leaguers down on their luck like Gonzalez need to take a step forward.  Guys like Jonathon Rodrigeez, who has become a solid player at Akron, needs to explode to cement himself as a true prospect.

On the other hand, pitching prospects are more like pitching suspects at this point.  Cantillo and Nikhazy are having major control problems after their promotions.  Mace, held down at Lake County at the beginning of the year looked strong in the first 3 innings yesterday but than got hammered like he did in his first AA start.  It is tough to get a read on Will Dion as he has just started playing at a level where relying on trickery is likely to get you flamed every time out when you reach the second or third times through the order.  Messick is still putting up decent numbers at low A when, of course, he should have started the season at high A against age-appropriate competition.  Leftwich and Webb, both currently hurt, need to continue their growth to be any more than 2nd or 3rd tier prospects and we do need them to make that jump for organizational depth and to allow some of our starting pitching prospects to transition to the bullpen like Curry did this year.  Curry (and Gaddis and probably Battenfield) was more suited for the bullpen from the get go and the braintrust seems to be buying into that now.

So, in summary, our farm system is teetering due to injuries and bad performances this season.  We need to have guys step up (like Jonathon Rodriguez), guys to break down the door (Rocchio and Valera) and guys to simply get their acts together (Cantillo, Nikhazy an Noel and Mace).  There is a lot of work to be done by these minor leaguers if they want to be part of the future of the Cleveland Guardians and it is time to take big steps forward for all of them.

2023 Amateur Draft - Part 7 - What About Overdrafts?

 The term overdraft is used by some people to describe the phenomenon where a team drafts a player much higher than the consensus says his talent warrants.  

Back in the late 1990s/early 2000s I did a study where I was able to show that, in the first 3 rounds (top 100 picks, actually) players who were drafted too high based on on their consensus rankings turned out worse than players who were drafted near or above their composite ranking.

We are in 2023 and I am here to say, based on recent data I have looked at, that the term overdraft has become archaic.  By that I mean that it no longer applies.  

I think the advanced metrics that teams use to help them make the correct picks has taken a lot of the 'gut feeling' out of the drafting process.  Certain paradigms are developing over the years on what types of players will be successful for a particular team.  For example, Cleveland is infatuated with drafting good sized college pitchers with good command and control who they feel they can add significantly to their fastball velocity.  This has produced pitchers like LT Allen, Bibee and now, Gavin Williams.

What I currently believe is that some teams just don't get what types of players they can and cannot develop.  For example, the Guardians are, generally, not developing their high school position player draft picks.   In fact, the HS position players who do develop are more the exception than the rule.

I also believe is that the Guardians, in particular, in the 2022 draft, picked too many guys who were, essentially, clones of Steven Kwan and Will Brennan, based on the premise that these players were likely to be safe bets as high floor/low ceiling, major league starters down the road.

But that's not the same thing as an overdraft which, to me, is a situation where a team goes with its gut instead of following where the data leads it.  I think that teams that fail at the draft are generally just picking the wrong players from a group that consensus would say are appropriate.   In addition, in many cases where a team picks someone no one projected to go that high, that draft pick tends to be a success rather than a failure.

So, why do I think that there is no long such a thing as an overdraft?

Looking back over the top 100 picks in every draft from 2017 to 2019, a pattern develops.  Without going into the detailed analysis of those years, suffice it to say that most teams picked pretty close to the ratings from MLB Pipeline but when they were wildly different, they DID NOT fail as much as you would suspect.  In fact, although the number of data points are smaller, teams that 'overdrafted' players tended to fail at about the same rate as teams that picked a player ranked about where their draft slot was.

How does this apply to the Cleveland Guardians?  Let's look at their top draft picks over the above time span and see how they were ranked and how they were drafted.  As these are Cleveland Guardians prospects, it will be obvious as to how these picks are working out.

2017, Quentin Holmes, ranked 33rd, picked 64th

2017, Tyler Freeman, ranked 141, picked 71st

2017 Jonathon Rodriguez, unranked, picked 102

2018, Bo Naylor, ranked 29th, picked 27th

2018, Ethan Hankins. ranked 21st, picked 35th

2018, Lenny Torres, Jr. ranked 47th, picked 41st

2018, Nick Sandlin, ranked 164th, picked 67th

2018, Richie Palacios, ranked 134th, picked 102nd

2019, Daniel Espino, ranked 24th, picked 23rd

2019, Yordys Valdes, ranked 82nd, picked 63rd

2019, Joe Naranjo, ranked 142nd, picked 101st.

Extending this to 2020 which history will likely tell us is confounded by COVID and short evaluation periods, some of the same patterns still are present:

2020, Carson Tucker, ranked 52nd, picked 23rd

2020, Tanner Burns, ranked 28th, picked 36th

2020, Logan T. Allen, ranked 46th, picked 56th

2020, Petey Halpin, ranked 76th, picked 95th.  

Look at Freeman and Holmes.  The former was a classic overdraft and the latter would have been considered a 'steal' based on draft slot and pre-draft ranking.  Ditto for Jonathon Rodriguez who may still turn out to not be a major league-quality player, but has, at least, wildly exceeded expectations based on his low pre-draft ranking.  Obviously the Cleveland draft picks in the top 100 over these 4 years contain the typical injury confounders (Hankins, Torres Jr. and, to some extent, Tucker and, we hope not, Danel Espino) which really messes with your head if you are trying to figure out this overdraft thing.   Not saying that he is a solid major league reliever yet, but Nick Sandlin being the 164th ranked player looked like a clear overdraft at the time he was drafted in the third round of 2018 but he has had significant success so far.  Maybe he could have been drafted a round later or even two, but his success would have still far exceeded his ranking.  

I think what we CAN glean from this data, and especially the data on the Guardians drafts, is that teams are getting better at identifying players pre-draft who will have success but tend to be bad at developing CERTAIN kinds of players.  It is obvious from the above data points that the Guardians are generally pathetic at developing HS hitters, thus explaining why their international free agent signings are very position-player heavy.   They do develop some HS hitters (Freeman and maybe Halpin and definitely Lindor) but they have had so many failures with HS hitters they drafted highly (e.g., Tucker, Valdes, Naranjo and, going back further, Bobby Bradley) that it has really impacted our major league roster as you can see by the Guardians' current struggles to score runs.

They are much better at drafting college pitchers but when they can't up their velocity (e.g., Tanner Burns) they are left with guys who lack the stuff to compete at the ML level.  Even Logan T. Allen is lacking the killer fastball that would make him successful and has to rely on his pitchability traits, leading to a lot of hard contact.  However, bottom line, their strategy around drafting college pitchers has been VERY successful.

Look, not every draft pick is a success story.  Some guys get hurt, some guys don't develop,  However my recent work tells me that, as much as I would like to, I can no longer in good conscious use the term overdraft because, due to advances in analyzing players, a simple ranking doesn't tell the whole story. 

To make the Guardians' drafts more productive, they simply need to do a better job of developing hitters or stop drafting them and draft college and a few HS pitchers and, after developing them, trade them to other teams for the position players those teams developed.  Continuing to make draft 'mstakes' which are really not draft mistakes but, rather, player development failures, is going to weaken our major league teams down the years.  

The draft is approaching so in my next post I will start to assimilate what I have learned in the first 7 posts in this series and, in looking at the players available in this year's draft, start thinking about who might be available and who the Guardians might consider drafting.

2023 Amateur Draft - Part 6 - High School Vs College In the Early Rounds

 Looking at the 2022 draft, it was definitely college-heavy.  Here is the breakdown of players selected in the first 120 picks of the 2022 draft 

1-30 - 13 HS/17 College

31-60 - 9 HS/21 College

61-90 - 6 HS/24 College

91-120 - 7 HS/23 College

Out of the top 100 selections there were 28 HS players selected. 

Also, in the 2022 draft all 19 of the players rated in the top 150 of all draft prospects (college and high school combined) (MLB Pipeline) who DID NOT get drafted were HS players who honored their college commitment.  Generally players who are rated that highly do not sign because their bonus demands were too high and/or they had a strong commitment to college that they honored.  And the 11 top rated HS kids who did not get drafted all went to different colleges, likely meaning that it was their college commitment and NOT the school that they were committed to that was more of a determining factor.

Looking at the top 30 prospects in each organization this spring using Baseball America's Prospect Handbook, of the 900 players who made the book:

174 were drafted out of high school

337 were drafted out of college.

A refresh on the the article I recounted about the analysis of players drafted in 2015 and before, here is the breakdown of college vs HS players in terms of making the majors and having a 3+ year ML career.

• First round: 75% of college players and 59% of HS players drafted made the majors with 52% of college draftees having at least 3+ years in the majors compared to 37% of high school draftees.
• Second round: 50% of college draftees and 40% of HS draftees make the majors; 40% of college draftees and 25% of HS draftees have a long career.
• Third round: 42% of all draftees make the majors, roughly equal for college and HS drafees and 28% of HS draftees and 25% of college draftees make the majors
• Fourth round: 39% of college draftees and 31% of HS draftees make the majors with 20% of college draftees and 17% of HS draftees have long careers

SUMMARY

Looking at last year's draft many more college players (72%) were selected by teams than HS players (28%) in the first 120 picks.

It is much more likely that a HS kid won't sign than a college kid, considering players who were drafted and did not sign plus top players who were simply not drafted because they were unlikely to sign.

Teams seem to find that almost twice as many college draft picks become top prospects compared to high school draftees.

So, this data would imply that teams are much more likely to have success in a draft if they can find college players of approximately equal value, talent-wise, compared to HS players.  As I said, it is my hypothesis that there are likely 3-5 players at every draft slot of roughly equal ability and projectability. Thus, finding a college player in those circumstances is likely to lead to more of a chance of success.  Additionally, if a team can find a player at a draft slot that matches their organizational needs (e.g., a catcher) all the better.  However, as I will show later teams SHOULD NOT draft a player who meets their organizational needs if that player is not as talented as another player who might be redundant, position/skillset-wise to players already in that team's farm system.  This would be what we refer to as an overdraft and we will talk more about that in a later post.

One factor not considered here is the ability of a team to draft and develop high school players compared to college draftees.   So, for example, if a HS school hitter and a college hitter are approximately the same ability and have the same projection, if a team can't develop HS hitters but can develop college hitters, they should draft the college hitter.  In the same way, if a team can develop college pitchers better than college hitters, the odds of their draft being successful go up if they draft college pitchers.  Now, teams should be able to change that by changing the focus of their development to better develop, say, high school hitters.  However, until they do, it is not a good idea to draft players your organization can't develop, no matter how much greater you think their upside is compared to a comparably talented college player.

Sunday Brunch - The Bo Naylor Era Begins in Earnest and Other Thoughts

 GUARDIANS

1. Shane Beiber last night looked like Shane Beiber.  With a combination of command and moxie and Gallagher helping him out, Beiber gave us 7 strong innings.  Due to Beiber's low pitch count Francona, as usual, took the bait and sent him out for the 8th with disastrous results...again.   No doubt aided by a little gamesmanship from the Torey Lovullo (phantom argument and intra-inning pitching change to a same-handed reliever,  Beiber did not pitch well in the 8th.  Francona should have seen what was going on and removed Beiber instead of just counting pitches.

2. Freeman as the pinch runner for Bell in the 8th and Arias as the pinch hitter for Brennan in the 9th was appropriate ONLY because Freeman has not been trained in the OF and Francona won't even consider putting Fry out there because, of course, guys who play catcher can't ever be outfielders.  It worked out as Arias took a walk but it wasn't the right play.  Ditto for Fry pinch hitting for Gallagher was also the wrong call as Freeman should have been saved for an important pinch hitting role instead of a generic pinch running spot.

3. Rosario with 3 hits (albeit 2 infield hits) was encouraging.  Now trade him.

4. Kwan with 4 solid hits was encouraging.  Don't trade him.

5. If you remember, in 2021 the Guardians had a winning record when they gave up on the season at the all-star break and Francona went on medical leave.  I doubt they pull the plug on this season but if they ever were going to pull the plug on a season, now would make a lot more sense than 2021 did, at least in terms of the fact they had a winning record in 2021 when they sent the season down the drain.

MINORS

1. As the 2023 draft approaches, most of our key prospects continue to tank, including every draftee from 2022.  This will be one of the most crucial drafts in Guardians' history unless we somehow turn Beiber, Straw and Rosario into a bunch of great prospects.

2. With MiLB now being part of my MLB TV package I get the opportunity to see a lot of games.  This once again shows me how a small viewing window can give misimpressions of overall performance.  Aside from watching top pitching prospects pitch, it doesn't seem time effective to look at batters every game when the best fail 7 out of 10 times.

3. PTBNL Watch

    a. for Owen Miller - Announcement overdue.  I want my Owen Mller PTBNL and he better be a good one.

    b. Richie Palacios - I think we are getting cash in this case.

4. Winter minor trade results watch:

    a. Will Benson for Justin Boyd and Steve Hajjar - So far this one sucks as Boyd and Hajjar have not looked good and Benson is, at least, giving the surging Reds some needed immediate help.

    b. Carlos Vargas for Ross Carver - So far this one looks like a wash for both teams although maybe we get something later.

    c. Nolan Jones for Juan Brito _ Too early to really tell but let's hope this turns out to be an even trade down the road with 'even' meaning that Brito is worth more than Jones as we have to wait years for him to get to the majors.  Jones is giving Colorado some initial ML help.

    d. Owen Miller for PTBNL - We will see if this one turns out to be anything at all.

Saturday Morning Coffee - Thoughts To Start The Day

1. Touki Toussaint, thank you for your service!  By the skin of your teeth and with one-out help from Xzavion Curry you managed to hold Arizona to 2 runs last night, keeping us in the game.  Of course, you walked the last 3 batters you faced which gave you a line of 3.2 IP 3 H 2 ER 5 BB and 2 K.  Given that Francona said they were sending you to Columbus at the end of spring training to work on your control and eliminate walks, I don't think that work is done.  Of course, those 3 walks at the end were likely the result of you being pushed beyond what you were prepared for, giving us 82 pitches to help save our bullpen that was in a tight spot when McKenzie went down with elbow soreness.  Curry saved Francona's bacon there as the latter was hell bent to get you through 4 innings because that was how he drew it up on paper before the game and, damn it, that was how it was going to happen, blowout loss be damned!

2. Goodbye, Mike Zunino.  By all accounts you are a great guy, giving of yourself for all sorts of charitable causes.  In times like this the fans LOVE t make players like you the whipping boy for all the team's ills.  The fact is that the front office of the Cleveland Guardians put you in an impossible situation.  They dumped Austin Hedges and signed you, as damaged goods, hoping if they threw you against the wall you just might stick.  Then, after doing that, they held onto you and kept playing you for two reasons (1) hoping to justify their mis-investment ($6 million) in you and, eventually, to stall until Bo Naylor was out of Super 2 territory.    It's not your fault.  With the recovery from your injury, the new rules that prompted more stolen bases and your predisposition to strikeout and empty at bats, you simply stunk this year.  The team put you in this position and I am sorry it ended up like this but, frankly, this should have happened a month ago and would have, except for the above.  Good luck to you in the future, sir, and I wish you all the best except, of course, when you play the Guardians at which time I hope you will tank it, giving us a chance to win that you never gave us when you were wearing our jersey.l

3. Welcome, Bo Naylor.  I am so glad you're here but realize that no one who knows baseball thinks you are going to be the magic piece to this team starting to win like it should.  You are simply another piece of the puzzle.  Just do your job and with your basic skills you will have plugged a hole in this offense that was gaping.  So, just be yourself and give as much as you can.  Don't overthink.  Don't try to hit 5-run homers.  Be a good teammate who gives everything to help the team win.

4. To the Guardians Front Office - Thanks for finally giving us Bo Naylor and finally pulling the plug on the Mike Zunino experience in Cleveland.  I will say this, though. If, in fact, you held up on the Naylor promotion until you made sure he wouldn't be a Super 2, you are playing with our emotions and our pocketbooks.  I get the Super 2 thing. I get the top 3 in ROY voting.  I get all that.  But this was NOT the usual case.  You didn't have a placeholder keeping the job warm while Naylor was going to finishing school.  You had a gaping hole in your offense and defense at catcher that you could have filled and we might have won A LOT more games than we have.   Zunino had all these defensive problems in spring training.  I know.  I was there and when I wasn't I watched games on TV.   

So now you have filled that hole that should have been filled much earlier.  But now you have more work to do.  It is obvious that you have other holes.  Rosario at SS is shockingly bad.  No way will he bring any more in trade even if he gets hot for a couple of weeks.  He is a BAD SS who has proven over the past month or so that he shouldn't be playing.  Either bench him or trade him for whatever return you can get.  Addition by subtraction.  It's time.  And if you can dump Rosario, bring up Rocchio.  It's time for that, too.

It's also time to send Gabriel Arias to the minors.  His being in the majors and continuing to play smacks of Owen Miller last year.  How this mistake can be allowed to repeat this year is beyond me. Give Fry a chance in the OF.  Bring up Gonzalez.  Heck, even bring up Noel.  Anything but Arias at this point.  Maybe he finds himself in the minors playing SS every day.  Maybe not.  But he should be doing that in the minors, not the majors.  

Thoughts For A Friday Morning

 1. I wonder if the Guardians brain trust is going to be in Phoenix today to check out their minor league players in Goodyear, especially George Valera?  They would get a 2-fer with their ML team playing the Diamondbacks.

2. In an irrelevant factoid, Francona owns a house in Tucson, where the Guardians used to have spring training. In a geography lesson, Tucson is 112 miles from Phoenix.  It also has a relatively high elevation at 2389 feet above sea level.  So, for those of you wondering if Francona can sleep in his own bed or will visit his house during this stop in Phoenix, probably the answer is a solid 'no'.

3. On the Diamondbacks 40-man roster are some familiar faces:  Kyle Nelson has been a reliever for the Diamondbacks ever since Cleveland let him go and has carved out a nice career for himself.  Carlos Vargas is on the 40-man but hasn't been on the active roster since early this season.  Konnor Pilkington is also on the 40-man and currently in the minors.  Cole Sulser is on the 60-day DL right now.  Plus Torey Lovullo is the manager

4. Just in case anyone is counting, in 2016 Michael Martinez, the last man on our bench that year and the author of the weak groundball to third base that ended the 2016 World Series, hit 1 HR and 4 doubles for the Guardians in 95 ABs with and OPS of around .600.   David Fry has 1 HR and 1 double in 22 ABs for the Guardians this season with a small sample size OPS of .670.  Not saying we are going to the World Series this year but, if we are, and if we are in the same situation as 2016, I would much rather have Fry as the last man on the bench than a weak hitting guy like Martinez (or even Gabriel Arias, the way things stand for him right now).  

5. Speaking about Fry, it was almost comical to see him with a HR and a double while throwing out a crucial runner trying to steal given our catching woes.  Complete disclosure includes that he did allow a stolen base and a wild pitch by Logan Allen but no passed balls.  For those of you who are thinking David Fry should get another start behind the plate tonight...he shouldn't.  He is not a starting catcher on a major league team and will be exposed if we play him there too often.  But he can be a great utility player...if he gets to play more than 22 ABs in 45 days.

6. In all business fairness to the Guardians, continuing to play Rosario has its merits.  The alternative is to send him to the bench, DFA him or trade him for peanuts.  If Rosario gets hot maybe we get more for him.  Zunino, on the other hand, is hurting this team and has no trade value and will not going forward, even if he gets on a small hot streak.  Everyone is saying it but there is no logical reason if you want to win this season to keep Bo Naylor in the minors.

7. This, hopefully, will be a good series for the Guardians.  The Diamondbacks have some star power in Corbin Carroll and a lot of good hitters as there are a lot of .800+ OPS numbers looking at their stats.  They have good starting pitching with Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen being potential all-stars this year and their bullpen is solid.  

8. As far as the minors goes, here are some random thoughts:

a. I really wish the AZL games were on a live feed, at least the video.  I mean, how hard would that be?

b. Speaking of the AZL, Rafael Ramirez, Jaison Chourio and our young catchers are not disappointing.  Plus there is enough rehab stuff going on that it would be fun to watch.  As far as pitching, Austin Aldeano is the only guy who looks exciting right now.  This will be a recurring theme as we are not signing international pitchers.  Again, these teams are only put together so the stars have a place to play.  Still, these games have to be tough to watch with the pitching being so bad.

c. Juan Brito is tearing it up at Akron.  This is great as his timeline works if he can have a good year at Akron and follow it up with a good year at Columbus next year that allows him to get 100 or so ABs in Cleveland next year.  

c. Interesting that Burns did a tandem with Leftwich yesterday.  I think he could have a future as a multi-inning reliever as his velocity seemed to be up a bit in that role yesterday.

d. Still love the Lynchburg hitters.  Genao, Benjamin, Antunez all show promise and although I am not as high on him as some, Lopez is an interesting catching prospect.

e. Tommy Mace's long-awaited AA debut yesterday was a disaster.  Let's hope the kid rights the ship as he settles into this new level.  He's another guy who might have to slip into a relief role soon if he doesn't get better results than he has so far in his career as a starter.

f.  Jonathon Rodriguez is teasing us with his numbers so far.  He ahs been young for every league he has played in, including this year, but it is time that he really breaks out.  His future on the 40-man and maybe in the organization is at stake this year.

g. Free Welbyn Francisca!

h. Today's starters Nikhazy (Akron) and Webb (Lake County) have something to prove.  Richardson (Lynchburg) and Jogly Garcia (AZL) need to build of recent success.  Remember, our farm system is looking really weak right now and will be extremely weak with the graduations of Gavin Williams, Brayan Rocchio and George Valera, hopefully by the end of this year.

i. Free Bo Naylor!

2023 Amateur Draft - Part 5 - Overspending Your Draft Budget

 Is it wise to overspend your draft budget?  Well, MLB in their collective bargaining agreement will tell you 'no' and that your team will suffer stiff penalties if they do overspend.  Here are some of those penalties:

1. If a team exceeds their draft bonus pool up to 5% they pay a penalty of 75% of the amount above their pre-determined budget
2. If a team exceeds their draft bonus pool by between 5 and 10% they lose a first round draft pick in the next draft AND they pay an penalty of 75% of the amount that they exceeded their bonus pool by.
3. A first round and a second round pick and a 100% penalty if they exceed their budget by between 10 and 15 % 
4. Two first round picks and 100% penalty if they exceed their draft budget by more than 15%

So, do teams actually worry about exceeding their draft budgets, given the penalties they are assessed if they do?

The resounding answer in "NO", up to a point.. 

Let's look at the data from the 2022 draft:

• Only 5 teams (Minnesota, NY Mets, Colorado, Baltimore and Arizona did not exceed their draft budgets.  All of these teams had draft budgets over $10 million, putting their draft budgets within the top 1/3 of all teams for 2022.  
• 16 teams exceeded their draft budget by more than 4%.
• 5 teams paid a higher penalty than the Guardians did, with the Guardians PENALTY for going over their draft budget being about $375,000. 
• 9 teams paid over $300,000 in penalties
• The overages plus penalties for teams who sent over their draft budget by a lot approached $1 million in some cases.
• No team exceeded their draft budget by over 5%, which would have resulted in the loss of the first round pick this year.
• There did not seem to be a pattern for whether a team's initial budget was more likely or less likely to influence whether they overspent although, as said in the first bullet, the teams that did not exceed their draft budges had some of the higher budgets in the 2022 draft.
• Small market clubs, including those with high draft slots, seemed just as likely as teams with large market clubs, with or without a high draft budget.
• There were, as always, bonuses that exceeded the draft slot for a particular pick.  However, only 5 of those exceeded it by anywhere close to $1 million.  

So what does this all mean?

• Most teams are not concerned with paying penalties in the draft budget
• All teams want to, and have, stayed under the 5% over budget number which would cause them to forfeit their draft picks.
• Late round draft flyers are not taking up a large portion of these overages, it seems.
• An artificial cap on draft bonuses has been successfully created but not at the level of the draft bonus pools for each team but, rather, at 5% above those bonuses;  MLB and the Players Association might want to rectify this in the future by just setting the actual budgets at a level where $1 over that budget results in loss of draft picks and a 100% penalty.

So, applied to the Guardians, this simply means that going over your draft bonus budget by up to 5% is simply the cost of doing business in the baseball draft these days.  

I think at this point if the Guardians DO NOT go over their draft budget by close to 5% THAT will be unusual in the upcoming 2023 baseball draft. 

Rant Alert - Hide the Women and Children and Don't Read Unless You Want to Be Further Depressed About Your Team

 If you are reading this you must like repeatedly hitting yourself on the hand with a hammer.

Because that is what it feels like watching the Guardians right now.

I was at Petco Park again tonight watching my favorite team. Indians' logo hat, red Guardians logo shirt, although it was cold enough you probably couldn't see it under my zipped up gray hoodie.

But a funny thing happened tonight.  I found that sometimes when you go to the game if you pay close attention there are things that you see that you don't see on TV.

Here is what I witnessed tonight, some of which some of you saw on TV, some of which I doubt if you did.

• After Ramirez popped out weakly to the first baseman to end the top of the first, he walked, LITERALLY WALKED,  as slow as he could back towards the 3rd base line.  He was walking so slowly  between Civale and homeplate that Civale literally had to stand on the mound and not start his warmups and wait for Ramirez to complete his snails-pace walk back towards the 3rd base line.  What is up with that? Is Ramirez just that clueless or is he just that inconsiderate that he was more concerned with himself than with letting his pitcher get ready for his start?  Note that the Guardians didn't exactly pop out of the dugout to bring Ramirez his equipment, either.  BTW, maybe totally coincidentally, Civale gave up a leadoff HR to Tatis Jr. after this occurred.
• Later in the game, I think it was after the top of the 6th after I think Kwan made the last out, no one came out of the dugout.  It seemed like forever until his teammates joined him on the field for the next half inning.  It was almost like they were having a team meeting in the dugout before they went back out to the field.  It was the weirdest thing I can remember at a ball game. Now maybe it was just me but my guess is I would notice if guys took a long time to take the field.  But I never remember seeing that before.
• Again, this may just be me but the Guardians throwing the ball around the horn after an out just looks weird to me.  It probably is that I don't remember how it goes but I thought the second baseman as supposed to be involved.  On at least a couple of occasions I think the ball stayed on the left side of the infield, going to Ramirez to Rosario to Ramirez and then throwing back to the mound or Ramiez throwing it out of play because the pitcher, while waiting for this all to happen, had already gotten a new baseball from the umpire.  Again, maybe I am reading too much into this stuff but it just seemed weird to me that the ball didn't go to Gimenez during this exchange.
• I also have to ask something that has been bothering me.  On TV in the dugout when the Guardians are batting it looks like Ramirez and Rosario are over in one corner of the dugout by themselves talking and maybe looking at a tablet watching videos.  I have seen this enough that it really bothers me that these two guys always seem to be off by themselves.  Almost like it is a clique.  Well, good teams don't have cliques and it seemed to me like last year they were all in this together picking each other up.  This year, not so much.    And I can't get that vision out of my head of Ramirez and Rosario always by themselves, talking JUST to each other.  You know, your team leaders should be with their teammates during the game, giving encouragement, talking to everyone. It just doesn't seem like that is happening this year.  But, agan, it could be just me.  But it makes you wonder if it is possible that Ramirez is exerting undo influence to keep his underperforming buddy in the lineup, doesn't it?  This is especially concerning to me when Rosario is not just a bad player right now, but is getting away with a lot of inexcusable stuff, like twice in this series making bonehead baserunning plays (hit by the ball killing a rally in the first inning of game 1 and getting caught off first base in the game tonight in the 9th when we were down 5).  That added to him making some really inept plays like the play he made up the middle tn game 1 that he botched so badly it looked like he just threw the ball behind him instead of to second base.  Yet he still plays!!!
• When Zunino allowed Tatis Jr. to steal 3rd and then couldn't block the ball to keep him from scoring, I really was beside myself.  Then Hentges allowed the HR to Soto and was removed.  But I couldn't get it out of my head that this is like the 1000th time this year that I have seen Zunino screw up a simple block of a pitch in a high leverage situation (2-0 at the time).  It was irrelevant whether Soto hit a HR, Zunino should have blocked the ball.
• Then in the 7th the Guardians loaded the bases.  I applaud Gimenez for taking a walk with runners on first and third with two outs and Straw on deck.  Maybe he thought Francona was going to hit for Straw.  Maybe he trusted Straw to come through like he rarely ever has done so far. Or maybe he just knew he could draw a walk and didn't want to be the one who screwed up the scoring opportunity, so he took the easy way out and passed on the responsibility to the next guy.  Whatever.  He did the right thing by taking what was given to him.  
• Then Francona did not hit for Straw.  And Straw proceeded to put up the most weak-ass at bat you could imagine in a situation where the Guardians really needed a spark.   In fact he likely should have been called out on the pitch before he lunged weakly at the pitch that struck him out.
• So we come to the 8th and Arias draws a walk with one out.  Game probably out of reach because, well, it was 4-0 and  The Guardians barely had a pulse at that point.  As I know has been documented elsewhere, Francona fails to pinch hit Freeman for Zunino.  Was Francona just trying to let the .179 hitting Zunino redeem himself for this bad hitting and bad defense the entire game/season/decade/century or was he just so clueless he forgot that he actually had a legitimate hitter Tyler Freeman on the bench and TWO backup catchers waiting to replace Zunino?  Not sure but suffice it to say that Zunino did the worst possible thing: hit into a double play to take whatever little hope the Guardians had left at that point and kill it, dead as a door nail. 
• After the game Francona, as he always seems to do, belttles every writer (except for those asked by Cleveland Guardians employee Andre Knott) who asks him a legitimate question after something that happened in the game, this time apparently giving Paul Hoynes a dirty look and a stupid answer when Hoynes asked why he didn't pinch hit for Straw with the bases loaded.  He probably would have given the same inane answer if asked why he didn't pinch hit Freeman for Zunino in the 8th but after Hoynes was seared by Francona's gaze, no one had the balls to ask the follow-on question about Zunino in the 8th. 
• So, back to the game itself.  After the top of the 8th the pain is almost over and all I had to do was endure the bottom of the 8th.  Curry comes on and gives up a HR to Cruz and gets the next two outs.  Then he walks Tatis who, with a 5-0 lead against a hapless opponent who has never scored 5 runs in the 9th this season and hasn't even scored 5 runs in one game and 8 innings of this series, proceeds to steal second base just to rub a little salt in the wound.  Now I have had to endure Tatis, Soto and Mercado hotdogging it for almost two games right now, especially Tatis, but this was just the last straw.  I mean really, you jerk, padding your stats when the game is really out of reach?  Really?  That is just bush league but, you know what, you ARE bush league so what should I expect.  Then, as if I hadn't had to endure enough, there was Rosario's bonehead baserunning play in the 9th.  It made me want to hide my Guardians' hat, don my souvenir Padres Hawaiian and slink out before anyone knew I was a fan of the other team.

I have to say that I think Francona has lost this team.  He has lost it because his veterans have no accountability, just like when he lost his job in Boston.  He has lost the team because he constantly gives veterans chances and doesn't seem to hold them accountable for their bad play by benching them.  He has lost this team by being probably the worst manager in baseball as far as knowing which plays to challenge.   And, finally, he has lost this team's confidence in him by not giving rookies a chance when his veterans continue to suck and NOT be leaders on this team.   Hey, Francona has earned a lot of street cred with the fans in Cleveland and so he should, based on what he has done.  But everything I saw tonight tells me he needs to start acting like a manager and holding guys accountable, not JUST for bad play but for bad chemistry, as well.  In my opinion he isn't doing that and is, from what I can see, allowing bad chemistry to fester on his team.  

Again, maybe I am wrong but what I saw tonight and what I have seen a lot of this season is embarrassing to the Cleveland baseball franchise and embarrassing to the lifelong fans of the Cleveland Indians/Guardians.

Now I could end this by saying we are not alone in this embarrassment and how it must be embarrassing to San Diego fans to have a losing record with a $255+ million payroll this year.  You can actually hear it in their voices as they 'root' for their team (at least the fans who are there to root for the whole team, not just Tatis, Soto and Machado), imploring their underperforming players to, well, stop underperforming.    But I won't do that as that would just be sour grapes and if you ask their fans they would just say "Well, we're obviously good enough to kick your team's butt" to which I would have to respond "Yeah, with our manager and our players, who can't do that?".

Today is Owen Miller PTBNL Day and Other Tidbits

•  According to Baseball Reference.com the Guardians traded Owen Miller to Milwaukee on December 14, 2022, which would make today the last day to complete this trade by the Guardians and Milwaukkee agreeing on the PTBNL(s) or agreeing on alternate forms of compensation (comptetive balance draft pick, international bonus money, straight cash deal).
• Luis Lara, my goal player to be the PTBNL, hasn't played in a week.  Can't find if it is due to injury but that is my guess so maybe that makes him more obtainable or puts a question mark on whether he should be the player we are targeting.  I am going with it makes him more attainable as his hit/OB tools make him intriguing for me, especially with his aggressive assignment to low A this year, completely passing complex ball.   Think Petey Halpin...at least IMO.
• Richie Palacios was DFA'd on June 11th meaning the deadline for that process would be on Father's Day, this Sunday. 
• Zach Plesac was placed on the inactive list for Columbus.  I don't want to read too much into that but given Plesac's issues in the past it is concerning that immediately after finding out that no one else in baseball wanted him on even their 40-man roster (he has minor league options left) he is placed on a list that has, in the past, had guys on it who were upset about being sent down to the minors or had some disciplinary issues.  

At this point I might consider packaging Plesac and Palacios with the compensation for Miller to get a higher ranked prospect from Milwaukee.

• Chase DeLauter did not play in Arizona yesterday and George Valera did, but only DH'd.  Both these things concern me.
• Will Dion pitched much better at AA in his second start.  In fact, if you take away the 4th inning in his first start he has given up ) ER in 8 innings at AA.  Still don't think his stuff will ever play in a ML rotation but he clearly has a chance to play in the majors if he keeps this up.
• Joey Cantillo with a much better start yesterday at AAA.  Although we have a lot of young starting pitching, he is one of the key guys for me who has to hit it big to keep our farm system on the upswing.  We have had so many injuries and epically bad performances by our top prospects this year that we need guys like Cantillo to give us high end prospects who are ML ready for later this year but, more likely, next year.
• Really like what I am hearing and seeing with Welbyn Francisca.   I would like to see us continue to stockpile young, top end, international signees in trades from other teams.  The Dodgers have two guys who I have mentioned before that I would as for in trades with them.
• As far as yesterday's minor league games, the epic collapses of Lampe and Boyd is especially troubling to me.  
• Remind me, why isn't Bo Naylor on the Guardians' 26 man roster?
• I laughed when I saw David Fry get a hit against Jose Hader yesterday.  I will tell you he was dealing and for him to the only player who didn't K against Hader yesterday brought a smile to my face, both for Fry and to spite Francona who seems bent on making it look like Fry doesn't deserve to be in the majors.
• Again, Daniel Schneeman...is it even possible he could be a ML player?  Amazing season so far.  Keep it up!
• Today has the makings of a great day to look at our minor league pitching prospects with Williams, Mace, Messick and Humphries going.  Still hoping against hope that Davenport turns his season around as I think they put in extra work with him thinking he could be an important prospect going forward.
• As much as I applaud Bubba Filia for his two HRs yesterday, it shows how bad our farm system is as far as catching prospects goes when we have two veteran college catchers catching our low A pitchers and guys like Mike Amditis catching at AA.  We need an influx of catching prospects at high A.  Dalton Rushing or Matt Wood, anyone?

As far as the Guardians' game:

• Even in a loss, I see a spark in this team.  I love the young players.  
• Anyone who thinks that our young starting pitching will have great outings all the time is dreaming.
• Walking around  Petco Park yesterday it amezed me, as it did last year, how many Guardians fans were in attendance at the game.  There was a noticeable roar from the crowd when Bell hit his HR.   One thing I did notice, however, was that in talking to the fans I heard some frustration in their voices about how the team was playing this year.  I guess that is what years of above .500 records and our playoff success will do to your expectations.  Hope for a better result tonight as some of those fans traveled from Cleveland for this series.
• One final thing: to the guys sitting behind me last night, you can tell you are being too loud when the Padres fans around you are rolling their eyes at you.   However, what I heard in your voices was frustration over how badly a team with a $255 million payroll is playing and trying to will tat team into performing anywhere near the expectations that a team salary like that should bring.  I get it. No, I don't and I never will as Cleveland will never, and shouldn't, have that type of salary.

Thoughts on potential Owen Miller PTBNLs

 The clock is ticking and we need to resolve the PTBNL from the Owen Miller trade.  Here are a couple of thoughts that I have mentioned before but are repeating here for players we should target:

Most likely type of choice - Someone in the MLB pipeline top 30 but near the bottom of that list

Matt Wood, C, Wisconsin, Midwest League, 2022 4th round draftee, 22 years old. He is currently the #24 prospect in the Brewers' system by MLB Pipeline.  He is a decent defensive catcher and hits left-handed, unusual for a catcher, and is hitting .297 with an OPS of .715 since his promotion to the Midwest League in May.

Least likely player (we can dream, can't we) but most desirable TYPE of player

Luis Lara, OF, Brewers DSL team - Lara is a highly ranked prospect (#12 in Brewers system) but he is listed as 5'7", offers no power right now (2 doubles and 1 HR in 106 ABs).  On the other hand he is a switch hitter and has great plate discipline and can steal a base (9 steals so far).  He fits the Guardians' mold for what they are looking for in a hitter.  Getting a good, recent international signing is the best result for Miller as it gives the player some time to develop before they have to be placed on the 40-man roster.

Other possible compensation methods

To be complete, there are three other types of compensation the Guardians could receive in lieu of an actual player:

Competitive Balance Pick

Picks in the first year player draft have been allowed to be traded for some time now.  Based on what I have read, there is no restriction that would prevent this being Cleveland's compensation.  The pmain ositive of this outcome is that Cleveland gets another pick in the upcoming draft and this pick is significant, as it would be the #33 pick in the upcoming draft which has a slot value of $2.537 million.  An additional positive is that the additional bonus money wouldn't have to be applied exclusively to this pick and could be spread around between other picks in this draft.  The downside to this method of compensation is that this means that the team will have to come up with the additional $2.537 million to pay its draftees as the pick only gives you the right to draft this player, not pay for that pick.  This method of compensation also has the disadvantage that not every player drafted makes the majors.  Getting a player vs getting a draft choice fits the old bird-in-the-hand-is-worth-two-in-the-bush adage.

International Bonus Pool Money

The Guardians could increase their international bonus pool money by  UP TO $$4.35 million for the international signing period that begins in January of 2024.  It is likely that Cleveland would receive less than $500,000 if this was their compensation.  The plus is that they have extra money to work with.  The negatives are that the Guardians don't go after the top prospects in the international amateur pool, choosing to spread their money around so additional money under $500.000 would be only marginally helpful.  In addition, like with the first year player draft, this only gives the club the RIGHT to spend additional money and avoid penalties.  The club still has to come up with that additional bonus money themselves.

Cash

The Guardians can simply choose to take cash from the Brewers. This, however, is the least useful form of compensation as they don't get any assets as a result and this money could just end up being placed in the general budget for the team (or go into ownership's pockets) as there is no restricton on how it is spent.  The Dolan-is-cheap crowd would just have more ammunition if the Guardians chose this path.

Summary 

If, as commonly suspected, Cleveland and Milwaukee decided on two lists, one if Owen Miller failed, which could be substituted by cash considerations if Cleveland didn't like any of those prospects and one list of better prospects if Miller, as he has done so far, exceeds expectations.   In the latter case it would be likely that Cleveland would not take cash when they could get a legitimate prospect.

The two players listed above represent the type of player Cleveland should target.  Ideally, they would get a strong, recent international signing (like Lara) who fits their organizational profile, although they might have to accept a decent prospect who was older but filled a need in their organizational depth chart (Wood, at catcher).

Not saying that these two guys are on the lists that Cleveland gets to choose from but, in my opinion, it would be good if they were.  Remember, David Fry came back for JC Mejia and we gave up Junior Caminero for Tobias Myers so Lara shouldn't be out of the question for what Milwaukee is getting out of Miller and Wood certainly should not be out of the question.  

The Guardians could also choose the path of getting another draft pick in this year's draft, get additional international bonus pool money or take cash.  None of these options are attractive to me as they don't actually get you a prospect with no strings attached.

One more point: I would throw in another prospect like Palacios, if he clears waivers, to get Lara but I don't think this kind of transaction allows for it to expand into a bigger trade.

2023 Amateur Draft - Part 4 - A Cautionary Tale From the 2022 Draft

 Some things that appear to be true, many of which were covered in the first 3 posts in this series, are:

• If a draft choice doesn't perform well in their first full year in the minors it is unlikely that they will make the majors or have a significant major league career.  
• 5-6 players from each draft should make the majors and 2-3 of them should have significant ML careers.
• 70% of first round picks should make the majors.  50% of second round picks do, as well
• College hitters and pitchers are better shots to make the majors in the first 3 rounds but it the percentages even out in later rounds
• There is really not enough data to suggest whether a player who is injured in that first year or who is drafted when injured will eventually make the majors compared to players who are drafted healthy.  What is clear is that the development timetable is set back for those players who are injured significantly before the draft or during before the end of the first full year in the minors.

SUMMARY OF 2022 DRAFT

With those details in mind, I went back to take a look at the 2022 Guardians draft picks and the stats they are putting up this year.  Remember, the Guardians have recently been choosing not to have their draft picks play in their draft year, waiting instead until they have had a fall instructional league and a regular spring training under their belts.  From that analysis it would not appear, at this point, that ANY of their 2022 draftees have shown anything that would indicate that they will eventually be major league players, given the criteria above.  Players who have had success are too old for the leagues they are playing in and so it is difficult to give positive numbers much weight and a good number of those playing as overage players are not having success in a league they should be dominating.   This creates a problem in that a team like Cleveland depends on its draft to supply players to its major league team.   It also gives a good indication that the draft strategy from last year, drafting left-handed hitting college bats who favor bat control and good batting eyes over power, could have been a bad approach, or that the players selected were just bad selections. There is still time for this draft to develop some major leaguers with the injuries to DeLauter, Campbell, DeLucia, Zibin, Santos, Rivera clouding whether they are draft failures or simply draft successes whose progression has been slowed by their injuries.   However, even if there are some successes still to come, it would be hard for me to project right now that we would even come close to getting an average number of major leaguers from this draft class.  One final point: we normally find gems after the 10th round but this year it looks like we might be shut out of getting even one major leaguer from rounds 11-20, which is where the scouts really make their money, in my opinion.

Here is a look at the players from this draft.

1. Chase DeLauter - He is hitting .133 in his rehab assignment after missing the first two months of the season with a recurrence of his broken foot last year.  It is too early to tell what his performance will be once he is assigned to a full season team as he missed so much time this is still like spring training for him..

1C Justin Campbell - He is out with elbow surgery and so all we know is that his development is probably set back a year.    From our experience with Zach Plesac and others, he still could put himself in good position to be rostered in his first Rule 5 off-season if he makes a speedy, full recovery.

2. Parker Messick - He has made 11 starts this season and has a 3.40 ERA in 45 innings, giving up 42 hits in low A.  As he is pitching in low A as a polished college pitcher, does not exhibit a ML average fastball and has only struck out 49 hitters, he is clearly not dominating as he should, compared to 9th round pick and fellow LH college pitcher Will Dion did in 2022, while, like Messick, pitching at low A as an overage pitcher.

3. Joe Lampe - After a hot start (.346 BA, .908 OPS in April) at age appropriate Lake County his BA is down to .243 and his OPS is .717 because he cratered in May (.181, .618) and worse so far in June (.143, .523).  Right now it is on the fence as to whether he will have a good or bad year this year but it is trending towards a bad year with April appearing to be an outlier.   If he fails to have a good year this year it is more likely he will be a failed draft pick.  Not absolutely guaranteed but clearly more likely.  Stay tuned.

4. Nate Furman - Furman started the year against younger competition at Lynchburg and dominated.  However, now that he has moved up to the more age-appropriate Lake County, he is hitting .212 with a .536 OPS in 52 ABs.  Small sample size as he adjusts to this new level. Stay tuned.

5. Guy Lipscomb - Dominating as an overage, 3 year college player in low A, there is no data on how he would perform at the more age-appropriate Lake County as, despite his great start, he has not been promoted yet.

6. Dylan DeLucia - The second of three picks in the first 10 rounds who is out with an arm injury, DeLucia will miss all of this year and a few months next season recovering from TJ surgery, meaning he will be halfway into 2024 before he pitches professionally and will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft after the 2025 season.

7. Javier Santos - A developmental project, he has not pitched yet this year and appears to be injured.

8. Jackson Humphries - A HS kid, he is in the ACL and has pitched one game going 3 innings and giving up 4 runs (first two innings were scoreless).

9. Austin Peterson - Playing as an overage player (college senior draftee), he is getting hammered in low A ball, giving up 64 hits in 44 innings with 38 Ks.

10. Jacob Zibin - Given over a $1 million bonus, he is out until next year with TJ surgery

11. Magnus Ellerts - As an overage pitcher he is currently dominating as the closer at low A.

12. Jack Jasiak - As an overage pitcher, he is getting hammered at low A with an ERA of 5.45 giving up 37 hits and 18 walks in 33 innings.

13. Tyreese Turner - As an overage position player at low A, he has leveraged a recent hot streak to raise his BA to .191 with an OPS of .573.

14.  Pres Cavanaugh - As an overage player at low A he is hitting .211 with an OPS of .604

15. Adam Tulloch - As an overage player he is getting torched in low A with a 5.26 ERA to go along with 23 walks, 39 Ks and 26 hits in 29 innings.

16. Logan Clark - Started the season in the ACL as a HS draftee and so far is hitting .200 in 5 ABs.

17. Angel Zarate - He is injured but before that was hitting .333 with an OPS of .820 as an overage player playing at low A.

18. Zach Jacobs - He has an ERA of 3.66 with 47 Ks in 39 innings as an overage pitcher at low A

19. Geo Rivera Jr. - On the ACL roster, so far he has not played this season as he began the year injured.

20. Shawn Rapp - Dominated the beginning of the year (1.55 ERA) as an overage pitcher at low A and was recently promoted to the more age-appropriate high A Lake County.