OK, so we determined the draft is not really a crapshoot. We have also talked about what a team should be able to get in a draft, in terms of players who make the majors and what percentage of those could reasonably be expected to have an extended major league career. Finally, we looked at recent Cleveland drafts to see how they did compared to how you would have expected them to do.
Today I want to see if you could predict whether a player would make the majors based on their performances in the first couple of years after they were drafted.
To do this I looked back over the Cleveland drafts from 2015-2021 to see how their draftees performed. Let's first look at the players who made it to the majors from those drafts:
2015
Brady Aiken - Aiken was damaged goods when the Guardians made him their first round pick, eliciting raised eyebrows around the league. The rest is history, errr infamy, as he hardly played in the minors and when he did play he was terrible.
Triston McKenzie - Triston performed well every year in the minors, never posting an ERA of over 3.46.
Juan Hillman - Hillman came in with a lot of hype as a 2nd round pitck. He had an ERA of 4.43 in his first full season at Mahoning Valley with a WHIP of 1.4 and only 6.3 K per 9. He continued to post mediocre numbers until he became a minor league FA after the 2021 season.
Mark Mathias - Mathias performed very well in his first two seasons in the minors, with an OPS of about .760 over those two seasons. He did run into glitches in 2017 due to injury and 2018 at AA with a combined OPS of about .690.
Ka'ai Tom - Tom had a good run through the minors starting with an OPS of .777 in his first season followed by an OPS of .881 in an injury-shortened second season and .758 in his 3rd season.
Nathan Lukes - Lukes only had a cup of coffee in his draft year but hit .301 at Lake County (then a low A team) the next year before he was traded to Tampa Bay.
Justn Garza - Garza came in off of TJ surgery and couple of seasons were really rocky and he looked like an organizational guy even though, before his injury, he was a well-respected college pitcher. Along the line he found 'it', eventually making his ML debut with the Guardians before being DFA'd that winter.
Sam Haggerty - Haggerty's first full season in the minors was, as expected from a low round draftee, non-descript, hitting .230. Eventually he was traded to the Mets and has played in 4 different seasons for the Mariners. While he has hit only .229 he has still exceeded his 24th round draft slot expectations
2016
Nolan Jones - Jones posted a .912 OPS in his first full season at MV. He has continued to post decent numbers with OPS numbers over .800 almost every year. He was Cleveland's #7 prospect when, as a 24 year old, he was surprisingly traded to the Rockies.
Will Benson - Benson started off slowly, hitting only .220 in his first two seasons although his OPS was .close to .800 during that time and he showed good speed, as well as a good defender with a great arm although he did K 140 times in his first 350 minor league ABs. His high K rate was largely responsible for his cratering in his 3rd year. He continued to improve making his ML debut last year and starting to play this year for Cincinnati after his trade. He still suffers from a high K rate. This, historically, when seen early, is likely a kiss of death for a prospect. The prospect can recover somewhat but the K rate always has significantly lowered that player's ceiling.
Logan Ice - Ice batted .198 in his first year and .228 in his second year. He was out of baseball by 2019.
Aaron Civale - Civale's ERA in his first year was 1.67 with a WHIP of 0.823. In his second year he had an ERA of 3.28 with a WHIP of 1.057
Shane Beiber - Beiber had an ERA of 0.68 his first year and with a WHIP of 0.5 and 2.86 in his second year with a whip of 1.03.
Connor Capel - Capel hit .210 his first (draft) year with an OPS of .560. In his first full season he hit .246 with a .795 OPS as a 20 year old who was over a year young for the league he played in.
Zach Plesac - Plesac had an ERA of 2.47 and a WHIP 0.922 in his first season in 2017.
Tanner Tully - Tully had a 1.17 ERA in his first (draft) season and had a 3.69 ERA with a 1.2 WHIP in his second season which spanned 4 levels of the minors.
2017
Quentin Holmes - In his first (draft) year he hit .182 followed by .143 in his second year. He finished his Guardians career in 2022 with a .190 BA
Tyler Freeman - Freeman had a .778 OPS in his draft year and then a .919 OPS his next year.
Jonathon Rodriguez - Rodriguez, I think the youngest player in his draft class, had OPS values of .715, .776 and .742 for his first 3 seasons.
Ernie Clement - Clement hit .280, .289 and .269 his first three seasons although not for much power as his OPS numbers were only .658, .732 and .654.
Kirk McCarty - McCarty had a 1.85 ERA in his draft year and 4.06 his next year.
Eli Morgan - Morgan had a 1.03 ERA (35 ip/58 K) in his draft year and then 3.27 (143/156) in his second year.
James Karinchak - Karinchak had a 5.79 ERA in his draft year and then 1.29 (48 IP/81 K) in his first full season.
Kyle Nelson - Nelson had a 2.48 ERA in his draft year and 1.58 (45 ip/67 K) in his next season.
2018
Bo Naylor - Naylor had a .783 OPS in his draft year and .734 OPS with 10 triples and 11 HRs in his first full season A 19 year old at low A Lake County.
Ethan Hankins - Hankins had a 2.55 ERA (in his first full season after pitching only 3 innings in his draft year.
Lenny Torres Jr. - Torres pitched only 15 innings his draft year with a 1.76 ERA and didn't pitch again, due to injury and the COVID season, until 2021 where he turned in a 6.59 ERA.
Nick Sandlin - Sandlin posted a 3.00 ERA 36 K in 24 IP in his draft year and then a 2.39 ERA in his second year.
Steven Kwan -Kwan hit .346 (.911 OPS) in his draft year and .280 (735 OPS) in his first full season.
Cody Morris - In his first full season Morris had a 4.35 ERA with 111 K in 89 IP.
Bryan Lavastida - Lavastida hit .292 (.782 OPS) in his draft year and .335 (OPS .891) in his first full year
Tim Herrin - Herrin had a 6.19 ERA in 19 IP in his draft year and a 2.93 ERA in his second year.
2019
Daniel Espino - Espino had an ERA of 4.19 in 2019 in 23 IP and didn't play again until 2021
Yordys Valdes - Valdes hit .192 (,458 OPS) in his draft year and .212 (.535 OPS) in 2021
Christian Cairo - Cairo hit .178 (.536 OPS) in his draft year and .225 (.726 OPS) in 2021
Hunter Gaddis - Gaddis had a 2.73 ERA (53 K in 33 innings) in his draft year and a 4.16 ERA (127 K in 97 innings) in 2021
Xzavion Curry - Curry did not play until 2021 when he had a 2.30 ERA in 97 ip (123 K)
Will Brennan - Brennan hit .266 (.723 OPS) in 2019 and .286 (.778 OPS) in 2021.
Kevin Kelly - Kelly had a 2.08 ERA in 2019 and 4.66 in 2021.
2020
Carson Tucker - Tucker has hit .144 since he signed.
Tanner Burns - Burns had a 3.57 ERA in Lake County in 2021 with a WHIP of 1.23.
Logan T. Allen - Allen had a 2.26 ERA in his first full season in 2021
Petey Halpin - Halpin hit .294 (.789 OPS) in his first full season
Milan Tolentino - Tolentino hit .269 (.758 OPS) in his first full season
Mason Hickman - Hickman at an ERA of 4.88 in his first full season in 2021.
2021
Gavin Williams - Williams had a 1.96 ERA in his first full season in 2021
Tanner Bibee - Bibee had a 2.17 ERA in his first full season in 2022
Doug Nikhazy - Nikhazy had a 23.96 ERA in his first full season
SUMMARY
Looking at the stats in their first year of play as professionals (or first two years if they played in their draft year, 80% of the guys who have made the majors or are top prospects had good first full seasons while the other 20% had mediocre first full seasons. 100% of players (7-7) who were high draftees and had bad first full years did not make the majors nor are top prospects at this point. Obviously this analysis did not look beyond the 3rd round for guys who never made the majors but did consider guys who were low draft picks who did make the majors.
Bottom line appears to be that if you have a good first full season in the minors you are likely to have a chance to be a major league player. If you have a bad first full season if you are a high draft pick, you likely will not make the majors nor be considered a top prospect if you are still in the development phase of your career.
The Guardians have had a number of failed draft picks in early rounds in the last several years and all of them showed up as being bad picks very soon after they were drafted.
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