Looking at where teams start to deviate from top prospects lists, thinking your team is going to draft a top prospect, e.g., in the top 250 prospects from MLB Pipeline, is a fair presumption in rounds 1-4, less likely in round 5 and much less likely in round 6 and then very unlikely in rounds 7 and beyond unless your team spends one of its draft picks on a 'flyer' which is loosely defined as a highly rated player who has fallen due to concerns about signability or injury. Remember that Shane Beiber was a 4th round pick.
- As was said in an earlier post, I think it is reasonable to think that in the first 4 rounds there are 5 players available in each of those draft slots that the Guardians, based on their draft slot, could select who have roughly the same ability and theoretical chance of having success (as defined by a 3+ season ML career) and that those players should fall comfortably within the consensus top prospect lists. The reason that mock drafts in the slot where the Guardians are drafting seldom are accurate is that those of us who do mock drafts don't have detailed information that would allow us to determine which players are the best AND best fit for an organization. Pundits look at available talent, past drafting trends and organizational needs to make their educated guesses as to WHO a team might pick but we really have no idea who the team SHOULD pick as we don't have enough data. Plus, as with all professional sports drafts, draft day is a fluid thing with some great prospects falling on draft day and other, lesser prospects who a team was sure would be available when they picked are long gone before that slot.
What we all need to hope is that our team
- Picks the best player within that 5 player grouping using the detailed information they have
- Doesn't gamble that they can draft a player that they think is better than what the consensus thinks of that player
- Doesn't pick a lower-rated player because they think he would be a better fit for the organzation
- Doesn't draft for organizational need if it causes them to draft a lower rated player than their draft slot grouping would suggest they should.
So, with all that in mind, let's talk about the first 3 rounds and which appropriately talented player groups might be available when the Guardians draft in each round.
Round 1 (#23 overall)
The Guardians have been damn poor at developing HS players with their early round picks. The issue in the way this draft is lining up is that the grouping of players who the Guardians can choose from at this slot could be all high school players. Unless a star college player falls to them they would likely have to draft a lower-ceiling/higher floor college player who was rated below this slot if they decided they HAD to have a college player at this slot to maximize their chances of getting a high percentage chance of success at this pick.
The appropriate guys (based on rating only) who I think will be available at this pick are:
- Charlee Soto RH HS pitcher
- Josh Knoth RH HS pitcher
- Thomas White LH HS pitcher
- Colt Emerson HS SS
As far as college players, Brock Wilken, Nolan Schanuel, Braden Taylor and Chase Davis underwhelm me at this point as they all seem to have significant warts to their game for a first round pick. Should Yohandy Morales or Tommy Troy fall to this slot they would be better college selections but that is why they probably will NOT falll but, rather, rise from their pre-draft rankings. Again, in the realm of the unlikely, if Enrique Bradfield Jr. would EVER fall to us this would be a no-brainer for the Cleveland organization who values speed and defense packaged along with a good bat control, left-handed swing. I am not as high on him as others as I see a guy who migh flame out against better pitching as he moves up the minor league ladder but he would certainly not be a bad pick at this slot. Unless a Hurston Waldrep would fall to them, I don't see any reason why they would take a college pitcher at this point as the best ones are clearly gone by this point and the 2nd tier, in my opinion, is not talented enough for this slot. One more point: if Chase Dollender would fall to them due to his up-and-down performance this year, I would pass on him because, frankly, if he falls to us this former potential #1 overall pick has problems that are judged too serious to justify a high bonus.
Second Round (#58 overall)
At this pick I see a better balance of college and HS players who I think would be good fits for the Guardians, including college pitchers who the Guardians may favor here
- Hunter Owen LHP Vanderbilt
- Alonzo Tredwell RHP UCLA
- Myles Naylor HS 3B
- Kemp Alderman OF Ole Miss
- Juaron Watts-Brown RHP Oklahoma St.
The college pitchers who likely would be available here are, in my opinion, the type that the Guardians finishing school for college pitchers could maximize and I think would be good value this low in the 2nd round. Owen and Treadwall are particularly tall which might scare the Guardans away...or not. Myles Naylor would be an appropriate pick at this point and would be my sentimental choice although I think if he is available at #58 he is a better fit at #62 after we grab a college arm or bat here. Alderman has loud numbers with 19 HR against good competition at Ole Miss this year with some ability to catch as well as play his more likely LF destination.
Competitive Balance (#62 overall)
This is the point it might get a little dicey as guys you THINK would be available here are sometimes taken much earlier as teams covet their skillset higher than what the rankings would say. Added to this is that the current draft rankings predict that close to this slot there will be no slot-appropriate college picks available and the Guardians may be forced to make a HS player their selection or risk drafting a significantly lower-rated player if they feel they MUST go with a lower risk (read: COLLEGE) player here.
- Myles Naylor
- Hunter Owen
- Steven Echevarria HS RHP
- Brandon Sprout RHP Florida
- Zander Mueth HS RHP
Aside from Naylor, who I still believe will be here at this point, the rest of these guys are pitchers. As said above, there is a lack of good college picks at this point. The most intriguing to me is college senior Brandon Sproat who has had a really up and down season at Florida and was much higher rated earlier in the spring than he is now. If the 'finishing school' is still considered an uber strength of the Guardians' player development program a flyer of Sproat here (he is currently ranked #79 by MLB Pipeline) might turn out to be a great investment down the road for the Guardians, as they will be buying low on where he was early in the season although overpaying for where he is now, meaning he is likely to be there at this pick meaning the Guardians can appropriately focus resources on doing a deeper dive on him before the draft (e.g., bringing him in for a pre-draft workout).
Third Round pick (#93)
If you look closely you will notice that most mock drafts don't go down this low. The reason is obvious: It is sooooo tough to figure out who will be available that it is tough to plan for this pick. That being said, this is the first round of the second day of the draft so teams will have had a chance to catch their breaths after the first night and so might have a good look at who is still available. Last year there were few players drafted in this round who were ranked higher than where they were drafted and this round featured a lot of guys drafted SIGNIFICANTLY above where they were rated and 27 of the 30 picks were college players in this round. With all that in mind here are 5 guys I think the Guardians may consider here:
- Michael Carico C Davidson
- Jaxson Wiggins RHP Arkansas
- Grant Taylor, RHP, LSU
- Homer Bush JR. OF, Grand Canyon University
- Tanner Hall RHP, Southern Mississippi
Looking at the guys who might be available I am thinking the Guardians might be going for a college player here. Once you get down to this level in the draft all draft prospects have warts. Carico is more like a Dalton Rushing-type prospect with his bat carrying him. Wiggins and Taylor are both 2023 TJ surgery guys which might scare away some teams but their surgeries were early enough in the year that Cleveland's choice to not play their draftees in their draft year may turn out to be more perfect for them than it would be for some other teams who value that first year as a learning experience. When you think of Hall think of Messick or maybe Eli Morgan as his fastball is below average and he has to have pinpoint control on his off-speed pitches or he will get hammered. Still, near the end of the 3rd round this might be a good place for him. Bush Jr. is a medium ceiling/low floor pick here and I am not advocating it but the Guardians do value speed and he certainly is fast enough to catch their eye if they don't draft a speedy outfielder early in the draft. I am not advocating Bush and feel one of the 5 or so HS players whose talent slots nicely at this draft slot would be a better pick if they were slot bonus signings.
Proposing these lists is a fun exercise but so much changes during the draft that it is hard to predict. That being said, I see this draft differently than a lot of people. I see this as a weak draft after the second round and if the Guardians do, as well, they may choose to enter the second day looking for low ceiling/high floor college players (inured or low velocity guys with the potential to tick up) and, like last year (Humphries and Zibin), end the second day with a couple of HS flyers who require over slot bonuses to sign.
There will be one more pre-draft post in this series (Part 10) where we check on the above guys one more time and look for news and movement on draft boards to see who might sneak into our discussion. Remember that last year I never thought we would have a chance to get Daneil Susac he fell towards draft time. Although we didn't take him the fact that he fell that far on draft day shows how things can change as the draft approaches.
No comments:
Post a Comment