Thoughts for a Friday - Welcome to Summer Version

•  Currently Baseball Reference.com has Cleveland with a 34.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.2% chance of winning the World Series.  In comparison, due to strength of schedule left to play, Minnesota, 1 game ahead of Cleveland in the standingss, has a 62.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 1.4% chance of winning the World Series.  So, when I see Francona playing the same guys night in and night, even against the A's, it tells me he, and the rest of management, is pretty desperate about winning games right now so they can make a determination about whether they are buyers or sellers at the deadline.  This has led to one pinch running assignment for Tyler Freeman and one AB in two appearances for Fry in a series against the least effective team in baseball.   I don't expect that to change much but it would be nice if Fry was the firstbaseman instead of Naylor tonight with Bell DHing and Freeman started at second base for Gimenez with us facing a tough lefty in Wade Miley.  I doubt that we see both those moves as Francona loves his veterans and damn the matchups or sitting a guy who isn't producing or any fear that he could burn these guys out now.   We are already saddled with Arias in RF right now because Francona won't give Fry a chance out there and Freeman was, truth be told, never trained in the outfield as was promised (NOTE: Shagging balls in batting practice is NOT training).  
• Watching Arias reminds me of watching myself in little league.  While I was a decent athlete and outfielder, given my inability to hit anything faster than a slow pitch softball, I was a 3 true outcome guy in little league: strikeout, walk, HBP.
• People think the next month is important as it will determine whther we are buyers or sellers at the deadline.  While true, this period is turning out to be very important for our farm system, as well.  As I have pointed out before our farm system is falling apart with multiple prospects in the teens of our top 30 having miserable seasons.  In fact, except for Juan Brito, I can't think of even one guy in the entire system who is having a breakout year.  So as we get into warmer weather throughout the country I hope to see some better performances out of these guys although I don't really believe it is going to happen.   When you look at Nikhazy's start last night it is apparent to me that Mace, Cantillo and Nikhazy are not top level prospects and maybe should be in the late teens or early 20s at this point...and they are the best of the lot right now.
• Thanks to Cleveland Guardians Prospective for the video of Chase DeLauter's first professional HR last night.  That is encouraging but I couldn't help but think of Kirk Gibson's 1988 WS HR off of Dennis Eckersley as I watched DeLauter circle the bases.  It looked to me like that was as fast as DeLauter could, or would allow himself, to move.  So what we saw last night might be bittersweet unless he was really just basking in the moment and taking the low and slow jog around the bases to commenerate a milestone moment in his life.
• Gotta love an article that is titled "A Buy Low Trade Offer to the Guardians for Shane Beiber" written by a guy in NY.  In this 'offer' the Mets give us their #17 and #25 prospects in a weak system and a failed prospect in Mark Vientos.  Besides being comical because the Mets should be sellers at the deadline, looking at the likely trajectory of their season as well as the comical return, this article does show one thing through analytics: people throughout the country are seeing that Beiber, while he is OUR ace, is likely not even the 2nd best starter on a true contender, being mostly a downside 2 or and upside 3 starter on those teams.  He simply is not dominant any more and it is far from a secret throughout baseball.  
• MLB Pipeline's Jonathon Mayo just dropped his most recent mock draft.  I had to laugh (and cry) at the same time.  In the 39 picks before the start of the second round, the lowest ranked prospect selected was Joe Whitman (46) by the Ahtletics at slot 39.  THAT IS IF YOU DON'T COUNT HIS PROJECTION FOR THE GUARDIANS FIRST ROUND SELECTION!  With that pick Mayo predicts the Guardians will draft light hitting HS SS Sammy Stafura, the #86 prospect in the draft.   It is rather revealing that Mayo would apparently have such little respect for Scott Barnsby that he would think the Guardians would be the only team who drafts a lowly rated prospect in the first round.   However, looking at the 2022 draft results from the Guardians I can see how he might think that Barnsby would be stupid enough to draft THAT HS shortstop when someone like Ohio-born Colt Emerson, not to mention Eldridge, Lombard Jr. and McGonigle would have been in play at that point, according to Mayo's projected selections.   I hope I am wrong but it is really weird that this is the only questionable pick, based on slot and ranking, that he would see happening in the first round.  Could be total conjecture by Mayo and total coincidence based on Barnsby's botched 2022 draft, but, generally, where there is smoke there is fire.  Quick, someone run for the firs extinguisher.
• As a followup to the previous bullet, Joe Lampe's monthly BAs are .348, .181 and, in June, .103 with OPS of .908, .618, .404.  Nate Furman is hitting .177 in Lake County after his promotion and 22 year old Guy Lipscomb is hitting .217 in June...at Low A.  I know injuries are classic draft confounders so Campbell, DeLauter, DeLucia and Zibin being out is, likely, just bad luck.  But with Parker Messick STILL at low A and not dominating even the way Will Dion did last year with similar stuff and a much lower pedigree, the 2023 draft is soooo important...as well as the next month will be for some of these guys to determine their true prospect status which, right now, is more like suspect or organizational player than prospect.

Go Guardians!