2023 Amateur Draft - Part 10 - Thought Process Before and During the Draft

 OK, just looking at lists, scouting reports and mock drafts and here are my thoughts about what thought processes go into making selections.

As an exercise I am going to give you three truncated scouting reports (all from MLB Pipeline) for high school shortstops who have been linked to Cleveland  as their first round pick in 3 mock drafts from different sources.  

• Player #1 - Bats: R, Scouting grades: Hit:50, Power 55, Run: 50, Arm 55, Field: 50, Overall: 55

Synopsis of scouting report:  He is all about projection. Plus raw power, some issues about pitch selection and quality of ABs. Tick above average runner, has enough arm and range to stay at SS.  Could end up with plus grades across the board if everything goes well.  Won't turn 18 until this fall.

• Player #2: Bats: L, Scouting grades: Hit: 60, Power: 50, Run:50, Arm 55, Field: 50, Overall: 50

Synopsis of scouting report:  Advanced hitter who makes repeated hard contact with pretty left handed swing.  Gap to gap hitter with some ability to pull the ball with authority.   All-state WR as a junior but stopped playing football to focus on baseball.  Average runner with solid arm and steady defender at SS but will probably move to another position as a pro.  Won't turn 18 until aftere the draft.

• Player #3 - Bats R, Scouting grades: Hit: 45, Power: 50, Run: 65, Arm: 55, Field: 55, Overall: 50

Synopsis of scouting report: Has gained strength, can drive the ball to all fields, stiff swing which may lead to power-over-hit profile.  Plus runner who can likely stay at SS and has played some center field, has a lot of helium on some draft boards.

So what would you do if you were Cleveland and had to draft one of these guys?

All three are top HS SS draft prospects.  Besides the fact that the first one might go way before the Guardians draft and the last one has recently jumped from the 80s to 30s in prospect rankings and the 2nd one falls about where the Guardians first round draft slot is but hits left-handed, there is a case to be made for and against all of them.

That is what this post in all about, really.   Which one would you take: The guy with great power potential, the guy with a great hit tool or the guy with great speed who has bolted up the rankings heading into the draft?

Now, I am not saying the Guardians are taking one of these guys in the first round of the upcoming draft but, if they are, I am taking #2.  Here is why:

1. He has an advanced hit tool, easily the best of the 3 and has the best hit tool I saw in the ranking of HS draft prospects, all positions included, going into this draft.

2. He is an athlete who, likely, is a tough kid, being an all-star wide receiver.(not that it correlates but I can think of another great LH hitting major leaguer who was a standout wide receiver, Kirk GIvson)

3. He could slide over to second base in a system flush with true SS guys.

4. He grades out well in terms of all his skills, meaning that his development pathway could be shortened as his hit tool will allow him to move quickly like Tyler Freeman did (remember Freeman lost almost a whole year to shoulder surgery)

5. Even though we failed to draft the correct left-handed hitters last year, it doesn't mean the premise is flawed, just the execution on WHICH left-handed hitters to draft.  There are still many more RH pitchers in the majors than LH pitchers.

The players above are:

1. Arjun Nimmala

2. Colt Emerson (also an Ohio kid)

3. Sammy Stafura

I fear, unfortunately, that the Guardians may be fooled by Stafura's rapid rise (ranked #86 last week and #32 this week) and may choose him over Emerson (currently ranked #29) in part because Stafura hits right-handed.  The Guardians may be convinced they can develop Nimmala's and Stafura's hit tools but our recent experience in developing high school hitters with a questionable hit tool says otherwise.  When a guy comes out of HS with a great hit tool (Tyler Freeman) history shows that he can be developed within the Guardians' system.

Again, not saying one of these three would be drafted if all were available when Cleveland drafts in the first round, but everything SHOULD point to drafting Emerson if it is between these three.  The problem is that I don't trust Barnsby.  He was burned last year with drafting too many LH hitters who have really failed miserably except for DeLauer, who was hurt.  His 2022 draft is falling apart and if Nimmala is not there I believe he outthinks himself and we end up with Stafura who goes the same way Preston Tucker and Yordys Valdes have gone and we give up the chance to draft Emerson who, to me, looks like a left-handed version of Tyler Freeman with that sort of upside or more, given his football pedigree.

We need this draft to be successful after last year's draft which looks really bad right now.  Emerson makes me more confident that will happen whereas Stafura and, to some extent, Nimmala, make me worry we might get nothing out of this draft in the first round.  We can't have that happen this year.  It would be really bad for our farm system if it does.

If Sammy Stafura is a member of the Cleveland Guardians this year while Emerson is still on the board, it will be a sign that the 2023 draft could turn out as bad or worse than the 2022 one is looking like it will be.