The clock is ticking and we need to resolve the PTBNL from the Owen Miller trade. Here are a couple of thoughts that I have mentioned before but are repeating here for players we should target:
Most likely type of choice - Someone in the MLB pipeline top 30 but near the bottom of that list
Matt Wood, C, Wisconsin, Midwest League, 2022 4th round draftee, 22 years old. He is currently the #24 prospect in the Brewers' system by MLB Pipeline. He is a decent defensive catcher and hits left-handed, unusual for a catcher, and is hitting .297 with an OPS of .715 since his promotion to the Midwest League in May.
Least likely player (we can dream, can't we) but most desirable TYPE of player
Luis Lara, OF, Brewers DSL team - Lara is a highly ranked prospect (#12 in Brewers system) but he is listed as 5'7", offers no power right now (2 doubles and 1 HR in 106 ABs). On the other hand he is a switch hitter and has great plate discipline and can steal a base (9 steals so far). He fits the Guardians' mold for what they are looking for in a hitter. Getting a good, recent international signing is the best result for Miller as it gives the player some time to develop before they have to be placed on the 40-man roster.
Other possible compensation methods
To be complete, there are three other types of compensation the Guardians could receive in lieu of an actual player:
Competitive Balance Pick
Picks in the first year player draft have been allowed to be traded for some time now. Based on what I have read, there is no restriction that would prevent this being Cleveland's compensation. The pmain ositive of this outcome is that Cleveland gets another pick in the upcoming draft and this pick is significant, as it would be the #33 pick in the upcoming draft which has a slot value of $2.537 million. An additional positive is that the additional bonus money wouldn't have to be applied exclusively to this pick and could be spread around between other picks in this draft. The downside to this method of compensation is that this means that the team will have to come up with the additional $2.537 million to pay its draftees as the pick only gives you the right to draft this player, not pay for that pick. This method of compensation also has the disadvantage that not every player drafted makes the majors. Getting a player vs getting a draft choice fits the old bird-in-the-hand-is-worth-two-in-the-bush adage.
International Bonus Pool Money
The Guardians could increase their international bonus pool money by UP TO $$4.35 million for the international signing period that begins in January of 2024. It is likely that Cleveland would receive less than $500,000 if this was their compensation. The plus is that they have extra money to work with. The negatives are that the Guardians don't go after the top prospects in the international amateur pool, choosing to spread their money around so additional money under $500.000 would be only marginally helpful. In addition, like with the first year player draft, this only gives the club the RIGHT to spend additional money and avoid penalties. The club still has to come up with that additional bonus money themselves.
Cash
The Guardians can simply choose to take cash from the Brewers. This, however, is the least useful form of compensation as they don't get any assets as a result and this money could just end up being placed in the general budget for the team (or go into ownership's pockets) as there is no restricton on how it is spent. The Dolan-is-cheap crowd would just have more ammunition if the Guardians chose this path.
Summary
If, as commonly suspected, Cleveland and Milwaukee decided on two lists, one if Owen Miller failed, which could be substituted by cash considerations if Cleveland didn't like any of those prospects and one list of better prospects if Miller, as he has done so far, exceeds expectations. In the latter case it would be likely that Cleveland would not take cash when they could get a legitimate prospect.
The two players listed above represent the type of player Cleveland should target. Ideally, they would get a strong, recent international signing (like Lara) who fits their organizational profile, although they might have to accept a decent prospect who was older but filled a need in their organizational depth chart (Wood, at catcher).
Not saying that these two guys are on the lists that Cleveland gets to choose from but, in my opinion, it would be good if they were. Remember, David Fry came back for JC Mejia and we gave up Junior Caminero for Tobias Myers so Lara shouldn't be out of the question for what Milwaukee is getting out of Miller and Wood certainly should not be out of the question.
The Guardians could also choose the path of getting another draft pick in this year's draft, get additional international bonus pool money or take cash. None of these options are attractive to me as they don't actually get you a prospect with no strings attached.
One more point: I would throw in another prospect like Palacios, if he clears waivers, to get Lara but I don't think this kind of transaction allows for it to expand into a bigger trade.
No comments:
Post a Comment