Monday, June 12, 2017

The first two picks are in the books

OK, so far the Indians went for HS kids.   Not that surprising.  I love the strategy of gambling on HS talent and trusting your scouts.   Without a first round pick your likelihood of hitting a HR with a pick increases when you pick a HS kid compared to a college kid when you have to wait 63 picks into the draft to get someone.  I mean, as good as college kids are, after the first round or so, they aren't that good, generally.   Look how many HS kids are drafted and signed.   Then imagine that your draft pool of college kids in a particular year has already been depleted of talent three years before that due to HS players signing.  Yeah, some kids don't sign out of HS and some develop in college but those guys are generally gone early. 

So, the upside for a team like Cleveland without a first round pick is to go with HS kids if they are doing a straight up, draft for your slot, strategy.

Looking at Quentin Holmes (ranked 50 by Baseball America) and Tyler Freeman (ranked 97th by BA), we drafted guys who were appropriate in talent for their slots (64 and 71) within the margin of error of what one scout sees compared to another. 

Are these the RIGHT guys?  Only time will tell.   That's what your scouts and player development staff are for. 

So, let's set up day 2 and rounds 3-10.

The Indians have likely not saved any money on Day 1.   So, it is likely they have adopted an approach that would not take any flyers and would draft guys in the next 8 rounds who will sign for slot or near slot.   The only way that strategy goes in the tank is if the Indians draft a guy in round 3 who will cost a bundle.   If they do that then expect them to take a bunch of college seniors and low ranking HS players as I described in my previous post.

If they choose to continue this draft for talent in a slot strategy, I hope they will continue drafting signable HS kids who are talented (to their slot) in rounds 3-10.  No flyers, but no underslot kids, either.  There is no need to save budget money on this draft, at least not more than say $250,000 or so to sign this year's late round Luke Wakamatsu guy. 

So, if the Indians follow the strategy I think they should, tomorrow will be more HS players with maybe a college guy in round 3 if he has some significant upside.  I still like Skoug and Howard sometime in the first 10 rounds with the rest of the guys being HS picks.

That being said, signing quality HS pitchers becomes incredibly more difficult after the first 3 rounds so I look for them to grab the best, signable HS pitcher in round 3, if Skoup is available in round 4 take him, then draft some HS position players and Howard in rounds 5-10. 

BTW, on a personal note I really don't like Curry and the Warriors.  They have this sense of entitlement that is just wrong for young athletes to see.  I am very disappointed for young players to see the way they act.   Even my daughter, who is an athlete but not a basketball player or fan, picked up on that.  Pathetic.  Champions, but pathetic.  LeBron was great, Kyrie was great, Love was very good and Thompson showed up, finally and Smith wasn't bad, but, frankly, I just don't see the Cavs being able to compete with the Warriors as long as the Warriors remain healthy.  Good season by the Cavs but when you unbalance the evenness of the two teams by adding Kevin Durant to one of them, you have pretty much decided the NBA championship before the first regular season game.  And, I have to say, Korver and Williams and the other in-season pickups were a waste of time, money and draft picks.   Unfortunately guys like that can't play against the Warriors and, particularly Korver, I am very disappointed that he played so poorly missing many open shots.  We needed him to do something and, frankly, he did nothing of value, nor did Shumpert and, to a large extent, Jefferson.  Korver had one shot at a ring and blew it.   It's very unfortunate but that is the case.   He tried hard in other aspects but if he isn't hitting 3s he shouldn't be on the floor.  End of rant.

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