Wednesday, June 28, 2017

How the draft is shaping up

OK, we are a couple of weeks into the draft signing process and here is what we know:

  • The Indians, right now, are running about even to their draft budget, being about $10,000 over budget so far.   Given that they can actually be $191,000 over budget and not lose a draft pick, they have some extra in their budget at this point.
  • They have signed almost every signable player from rounds 11-40.  Right now the only players they have left in play, in my opinion, are Dante Mendoza (HS) and Kyle Nelson (college junior) from those rounds.  Oscar Serratos (HS) is intriguing as the Indians don't normally draft a HS kid that high unless they can sign him.  They have already signed 17 kids drafted in the final 30 rounds, more than I expected and all but one of the college juniors/seniors they picked in those rounds.   
  • It will be interesting to see what the signing bonuses of Austen Wade and weak hitting U. of Florida catcher Michael Rivera will sign for.  My hope is that both come at slight discounts, similar to the discount they got Clement for.   If it does happen we are looking at maybe $275,000 in additional monies over budget to sign the following players:
    • Quentin Holmes - It may take $1,000,000 to sign him, or $30,000 over budget
    • Tyler Freeman - I am hoping to sign him for slot or a little under slot, maybe $45,000 given his pre-draft ranking and what we got Clement for.
    • Kyle Nelson - I am hoping to sign him for $25,000 over slot at $150,000.  It seems like maybe the reason he hasn't signed is because they are waiting to see what they have left in the budget to go over the $125,000 slot for him.  Maybe it may take a little more to sign him and we may have that, depending on Serratos (see below).
    • This leaves about $250,000 to sign Mendoza and Serratos with.  I think it will take probably $250,000 to sign each of them, meaning that we will use up all of that 250K excess if we sign both of them.  If we only get Mendoza we are likely to come in right around budget with about 125K short of the overage that would force us to lose a draft pick next year. 
Of all the drafts the Indians have had in recent years this draft will hinge on the scouts' ability to project these guys.   I know that sounds like a duh moment but we are talking about a number of guys here with limited tools who we would expect big improvements from if this draft is going to be successful.  When you draft as low as the Indians did this year you have to count on great scouting and a little luck.   They certainly will have the warm bodies to try to make that happen, especially if all the possible remaining guys sign. 

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