First, I am less scared about them trade Plesac now and more scared of them doing a Yan Gomes dump of Bauer and Kluber. So, yeah, I am thinking the Indians will NOT be adding veterans at the deadline and now am worried about them doing salary dumps disguised as rebuilding trades at the deadline. Such is the life of an Indains' fan.
On a more positive note let's talk about the ML amateur draft which starts today. But first I digress.
The Buckeyes recently got a commitment from the best wide receiver in the country in the 2020 draft class. Why: many reasons but the long and short of it was that they develop receivers into NFL players.
Using the same logic, the Indians should spend almost the entire draft drafting college pitchers. If a good college hitter falls to them in the first round then, by all means, draft them. But after that, it should be college pitchers all the time through the top 12 rounds at least.
Just look at their recent record of guys who were not top draft prospects and yet are looking like top prospects and even major leaguers for the Indians, and who have gotten to the majors very quickly
Shane Beiber
Zac Plesac
Aaron Civale
James Karinchak
Eli Morgan
Nick Sandlin
and even Adam Scott and Robert Broom and Adam Plutko
Not to even mention Mike Clevinger, Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber who they put through finishing school after their training started with other teams.
The Indians do this very well. What they don't do well is develop high school pitchers, high school hitters and, especially, high school and college catchers and, for the most part, college hitters.
So while the Indians need hitting and so you would think they should draft college hitters, they shouldn't focus there. Instead, they should focus on developing pitchers with the intent of trade young pitching for young hitting down the road.
One more point: Julian Fleming went to Ohio State. He made a tough choice as he was originally a lock to go to Penn State and lives close to there. Why did he make that choice? Because he wanted to play at the highest level. In baseball the tough choice is not WHO you are drafted by but WHAT they will pay you. My guess is that some of the tougher signings might sign with the Indians, trading the larger bonus they wanted for a quick path to the major leagues.
So, not only should the Indians draft college pitchers, they should save a little money for a couple of college pitcher flyers. They might be able to get those guys at a discount because young guys know that while a bonus is great, the real money comes from making it to majors. Given that the major league minimum salary is $555,000 this year, that's the bonus slot value of the 105th player drafted this year. So maybe a guy who wants a million but is still sitting there in the 4th round because no one thinks he is worth high second round money, would sign with the Indians for an overslot $500,000 bonus in the 4th round because he really wants to start his pro career and he knows the Indians will likely develop him faster.
So, that's the formula for the Indians in this draft:
First round: Best available college bat
Second through 12th rounds: College pitchers with enough college seniors so we have above slot money for 2 flyers.
After the 12th round: Whoever they think will sign and can be developed.
Strange philosophy for a team that needs pitching but one that I think will work.
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