OK, very little of any of this is final and absolute. But here is what we have so far:
It looks like we have signed five players (info from various sources) in our top 10 picks.
2. Valdes - $79,000 under slot
3. Naranjo: $193,000 over slot (drafted 19 places higher than expected)
4. Cairo: $520,000 over slot (33 slots lower than expected)
10. Hart: $137,500 under slot (maybe 100 places higher than expected - college senior signing)
So, if my calculations are correct and the numbers (especially Cairo's $955,000 bonus) are correct we are currently over $500,000 over budget at this point.
DRAFT RULES REMINDER: If a guy fails to sign we lose his draft slot value from our bonus pool so players drafted highly have some leverage not to accept low ball offers from teams. If they just go to or go back to school, the team drafting them is usually screwed big time because teams are normally counting on certain players to sign under bonus to make up for guys who require above slot bonuses to sign.
Right now, the really drag on our draft budget is Cairo and Naranjo. Cairo going over slot was expected but his bonus was 2X what his slot value was and about $200,000 more than he should have gotten based on where he was ranked right before the draft.
As we may be 5% or less over budget and not lose our #1 pick next year we have the following threshholds:
We have to go $500,000 under budget for our picks in rounds 1,5,6,7,8 and 9 and not sign any player for more than $125,000 after round 10 to not to be penalized any additional money.
or
We have to go $200,000 under budget on the combined bonuses of those picks AND not sign a player after round 10 for more than $125,000.
So, let's analyze our remaining picks to see if we can save enough money to get back to budget.
1. Daniel Espino - His slot is $2.83 million. He was drafted 24th overall and was rated 23rd overall. I doubt than we can any money on him. Let's say, for argument, that we can save $50,000 on him.
5. Hunter Gaddis - His slot value is $324,100. He was drafted 29 places higher than expected. I think we could save $40,000 on him, or half the difference between where he was drafted compared to where he was expected to be drafted.
6. Jordan Brown - His slot value is $251,100. He was drafted 190th and Baseball America had him ranked 334. This would mean that his bonus should have been close to $140,000 based on his ranking. We could reasonably expect him to sign for about $175,000 or $75,000 under slot.
7. Xzavion Curry - His slot was $197,300. He missed two starts in May with shoulder inflammation. I don't have his ranking but, as you moved lower in the top 10 there isn't that much room to play with in terms of lowering bonuses. I would say we save no money on this pick.
8. Will Brennan - Slot value is $163,900. I can see us saving $20,000 at the most with this pick.
9. Will Bartlett - Slot was $153,300. He is an IMG Academy guy and I don't see guys from that program going under slot, even though he was not highly ranked. Either we sign him at slot or he walks, and we lose that bonus money from our bonus pool. Either way, there are no savings there.
SUMMARY - So, looking at these picks, if we don't save a bunch on Espino, it looks like we might be able to eek out $135,000 below slot for all these other guys together. Thus we need Espino to sign for at least $100,000 or more below slot or we will likely lose a draft pick next year...and that assumes all the other guys above that I predicted could be had for under slot value really will sign for under slot.
So, we are still very much at risk of having a bad draft AND losing our #1 pick for next year by spending over our bonus pool. As I said above, it all comes down to how much we get Espino to sign under budget. Frankly, if his bonus is at or above slot, we are screwed as there is almost no way to save any more money. So watch what Espino signs for or if he doesn't sign early. Any delay in signing him could mean trouble for the Indians not only in this draft but in next year's draft, as well.
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