Tuesday, June 4, 2019

Draft Analysis - Day 2 picks

OK, quick summary first:

First, for what it is worth, Jim Callis listed his favorite picks each round for day 2.  No Indians' pick made that list and one of Minnesota's picks and two of Detroit's picks made it.  

That, in a nutshell, summarizes my feelings of Day 2.   No pick stood out for me.   There were lots of head scratchers as I can easily see with so many HS players chosen, this year may represent the worst signing performance this organization has had in the first 10 rounds for quite some time.   The HS guys they picked are set up either to underperform (Torres, Naranjo) or not sign (Brown, Bartlett).  Only Cairo and Espino look like they even have any potential at this point and that is NOT something you want to hear in your first 10 round picks.

Remembering that we traded away our CB pick this year to Sesttle, I speculate now like I did then: is it possible that the Indians are de-emphasizing the draft and applying more resources to international signings?

Looking at these first 10 rounds I also have a prediction: this will both be our worst 10 round signing percentage in a long time and, not even counting the guys who don't sign, we will leave bonus money on the table for the first time in a long time.  Now, if we stop drafting before the 30th round (which I am not predicting we will) then something is really up.

Now, let's talk about each pick and you will be able to see why I have the opinions above..

Round 3 - Joseph Naranjo - Look, he is listed as 6' 180.   For comparison Torres is listed as 6' 170.  I don't know what they see in this guy but if you are a HS first baseman you are not that athletic.   So we have a short, thin suspect athletic ability guy whose separating tool is supposed to be power.  The only way this pick works out is if they turn him into a catcher and he succeeds at it.  I know that is a strong statement but this pick doesn't make sense to me.  Oh, and they better be signing this guy to an underslot bonus as he was drafted at least one round too high. This pick, following up on the Torres pick, is making this draft look like possibly one of the worst in Indians' history, and that is saying a lot.

Round 4 - Christian Cairo - Every Indians' draft has a player who is likely going to get leftover bonus money.   In this draft it is Cairo.  He was a 3rd round talent drafted in the 4th round.   Good value here if he signs.  If he doesn't sign this draft is already looking pretty pathetic.

So the Indians, who have had almost zero luck developing HS bats and HS pitchers fill up their first four picks with those guys.  Just as an FYI, Nolan Jones was supposed to have power.   He has shown none.  As a 3rd baseman that makes him very suspect in my book and he is lookin like he may not even be good enough to stick at 3rd.    Bobby Bradley as late as last year hit .235 in the minors.  Will Benson is very suspect in repeating low A ball in his 4th year in the organization and Quentin Holmes just looks overmatched most of the time.  Besides trotting out Tyler Freeman, people need to realize how bad we are at developing HS hitters.

Round 5 - Hunter Gaddis - This is the typical Indians' small college top 10 round pick.   They have had lots of luck with those picks so you gotta cut them some slack on this pick and I will.

Round 6 - Jordan Brown - A HS SS, a guy like him is unlikely to sign as he won't command much of a bonus.

Round 7 - Xzavion Curry - Another college arm who has great secondary stuff and an average fastball.  Again, slack is given.

Roiund 8 - Will Brennan - A college outfielder/pitcher as a lowly rated college junior he would have to be an underslot bonus guy for this to make sense.   However, you do have to remember that Ka'i Tom and Steven Kwan looked like blah picks and they are still going strong in the system so, once again, I cut the Indians some slack with this pick

Round 9 - William Bartlett - Drafted as a catcher, historically high school catchers drafted at this point or later just go to college.   This seems like a bad pick to me because he isn't that good and he likely won't sign.   Now, if it turns out that he will sign for well under slot, I take this back.   But I do believe this kid goes to college knowing that he can easily match or exceed the bonus he will be offered three years from now.

Round 10 - Zack Hart - Typical Indians' college pitcher senior sign.   Slack given again here.

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