Wednesday, June 5, 2019

2019 Draft - Day 3 Analysis

OK, here we go.   Here is where the Indians usually find some value.   I am not a draft guru and I can't tell you how the Indians do in that regard to other teams but, historically, the Indians have been much better in recent years getting value from these picks.   Adam Plutko and Zac Plesac come to mind but there have been other guys.  More on that in a future post.  Let's dive into today's picks.

11th round - Nick Mikolajchak - RHP - college junior.  He was used primarily as a reliever and fits the Indians mold of 2nd or 3rd tier college pitchers:  better than 1.0 K/ip ratio and good K/BB ratio. This looks like a typical Indians' pick that stands a good chance to net them a 5th-7th inning reliever or better. Good pick

12th round - Allan Hernandez - RHP - HS - He sounds good on paper and this is another area the Indians excel in.   Taking HS or college guys who others think would be tough signs and throw a little extra money at them to get them to sign.   I like this pick if he signs.   I could see them going to $175,000 or $200,000 with him if they like him.  How he advances is another question.   Normally we are drafting guys like Plesac or Plutko at this point and there is little doubt about their polish, just whether it and their remaining projection will be enough to get them to the majors.  Not the same for a HS kid.   Given how low he was rated and drafted he could have a short career or a very long one in the low minors (slow development path).  OK pick if he signs and I predict he will sign.

13th round - Micah Pries - college junior - CF - You may hear Ka'ai Tom or Steven Kwan comps but remember those guys were 5th round guys and more highly rated than Pries.  Still, he profiles like Kwan- and Tom-lite.  

14th round - Ike Freeman - college junior - SS - Hit .279 this year but had a .415 OBP and more walks than strikeouts.   Looks like an organizational player like Tyler Friis, but with a little more power,  if he signs.

15th round - Trey Benton - college junior - RHP - College reliever, good K/IP, good K/BB rate.  Sound familiar?  He did not pitch for a lot of the season as he had an arm injury.  Normally that type of guy would come back for his senior year but if Benton knows, as I am sure he does, how good the Indians are at getting guys back fast after arm injuries, he might sign just to get the medical care1

16th round - Jordan Jones - college junior - RHP - Starting pitcher at a good school (Washington).   Historically this type of guy does not sign with the Indians when drafted this late.  His numbers don't jump out at me but he may have something there.

17th round - Julian Escebado - college junior - CF - Similar to Pries and Freeman, not much there to show that he will not just be another organizational player.   At least they are taking middle of the field players (C-SS-CF) guys.

18th - Matt Waldron - RHP - senior sign - Nebraska - He averaged 11.7 K per 9 innings this year.   He appears to be the typical Indians' late draft pick.   He clearly has one or more swing-and-miss pitches so he stands a chance as a reliever.  Good pick

19th - Kevin Kelly RHP - college junior - Kelly is an interesting guy with a good K/IP and K/BB rates.  

20th - Nic Enright - RHP - college senior - Once again, he has a good K/IP ratio, something the Indians seem to value...and it works very well for them.   Another intriguing college reliever.

2st - Michal Amditis - C - college junior - Every year they draft depth college catchers.   Amditis is just another one.   At least if he stays with it he could end up getting an invite to ST to catch bullpens, if nothing else comes of him being drafted.

22nd - Michael Pinorini - C - college senior - see Amditis

23rd - Chandler Fidel - LHP - college junior - Just as if on cue, "college catchers - check; college LHP - check".  Every draft they draft some lefties.   Their success rate with LHP is much lower than their success rate with RHP as far as making them relievers but Nelson, Speer and others have started making their way up the system so if this kid has the stuff (better than 1.0 K: says he does) maybe they can make an effective LHRP out of him.

24th - Joab Gonzalez - SS - 2nd year juco player - Another organizational pick.  The Indians almost never sign one of these JUCO guys as, drafted this low, they almost always roll the dice and go to the 4 year school that has offered them a scholarship hoping to raise their draft stock next spring.

25th -  Eric Mock - RHP - college senior - Another good K/IP guy who, like Fidel, did it at a high level school.   Interesting pick...again...for the nth time.

26th  - Armani Sanchez - SS - HS -  Ahhh, the first HS flyer in this draft.   This is like Groundhog Day from previous Indians' drafts.   They are out of guys they want to sign and so just start picking contingency flyers.  These guys always seem to pop up if money is left over from the early rounds.  But teams, including the Indians, always draft one or more of them just in case the one player they are going to pay overslot money to fails to sign.  Look for Sanchez to go to college.

27th - Landy Pena - SS - HS - Flyer #2.   See Sanchez above

28th -  Serafino Brito - RHP - college senior - College reliever, organizational depth but still hovering around 1 K:IP in both his junior and senior seasons.

29th -  Nate Ocker - RHP - college senior - Another college reliever, another guy with more than 1 K:IP.

30th - Jonathon French - C - HS -  Ahhh, the penultimate flyer pick.   One or more of these HS flyer picks each year is a highly ranked guy who wasn't drafted early because of a strong commitment to college.  French is that guy this year.   He won't sign.   They never do or, as highly rated as they are (124, 4th round talent) they would have been drafted much earlier.

There it is.  Analysis of the complete draft will be coming in the next day or so.


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