2023 - The over/under

 So let's do an overview of what we can expect from our roster in 2023.  That is will they do better (OVER), the same (SAME) or worse (UNDER) next year compared to their performance this year.   Now this analysis is done without considering unexpected injuries or trades that might open up or close up playing opportunities for the current roster.  So, let's go:

Jose Ramirez - OVER -Assuming his thumb surgery and rehabilitation goes well and he doesn't have any other injuries that linger, he should clearly surpass his numbers this year.  I am thinking similar numbers of doubles and triples as this year but 6-10 more HRs and about 15 points higher in BA.  

Andres Gimenez - UNDER - If he can give us .260 with 15 HRs, 20 SBs, a few more walks and a few less Ks than this year I'll take it.

Amed Rosario - SAME - Very pedestration year this year.  No reason to believe he won't repeat it next year.  I don't see a lot of room for improvement but his current numbers, with additional RBIs is we strengthen the bottom of our order,  would be great.

Josh Naylor - OVER - Hey, I didn't think he would have the year he had this year after his surgery.  Imagine 2023 when he is another year removed from his injury/surgery.  I'd like to see 30 HRs from him but I will settle for 25, with all his other numbers remaining the same or improving just a tad.

Catcher - OVER - Instead of a player this is a position.  I think we trade for Sean Murphy whic upgrades both the offense and defense on this team a lot. This position will get better next year, one way or another.

Kwan - SAME - Look, this is generous.  At some point the league can figure out how to keep Kwan from getting singles.  He doesn't have the power to make them pay for mistakes so Kwan will scratch and clawe for every advantage he can gain and will, in the end, be better at some things and worse at others with a net change of close to zero compared to 2022.

Straw - OVER - This is an easy one.  Once the season ended I expected Straw to come out...with a report that he played hurt all year, likely the result of some tumble he took in the OF.  But it was Ramirez and Gimenez that came clean.  Still, even if it was just the red-shirt sophomore slump, I expect him to get better offensively and stay the same or get better on defense

Gonzalez - SAME - I would love to say OVER here but I just don't buy it yet.  He would have to go 35 doubles and 25 HRs for a full season and I think we are likely to see .265, 20 HR and thirty doubles as he works through the painful sophomore year that sinkts other 2nd year players.  I also think he could have a crash and burn second season and go the way of Bobby Bradley.  It's too early to tell but his dramatic, sustained rise this year compared to 2021 says he still have improvement in the tank that he can reach for.

Beiber - SAME

McKenzie - SAME

Quantrill- SAME

Plesac - OVER - I may be the only Guardian's fan who thinks this but Plesac SHOULD get another chance.  I mean, he should be pretty much an underpaid 5th starter even on a good team.

Civale - OVER - I think he has a healthy year and does well as our 4th starter.

Clase - UNDER - How can he get better or even stay the same?  He was unbelieveably automatic this year and his playoff usage could impact his performance and/or health next year.  

Hentges - SAME

Stephan - SAME

Karinchak - SAME

Morgan - SAME

Morris - OVER

Gaddis - OVER - I think he makes an impact next year.  I really do.

Curry - OVER- I think his impact is in the pen and it is not felt until the second half of the year but it is still more than this year.

If we make the trades I want:

Abreu, Murphy and Puk - OVER - If we trade for/sign these guys and they avoid injuries I think they all have significant bumps over their performance year.

Others - OVER - I see 2023 like a mini-2022.  Mini because we won't have as many rookies.  However, the ones that we have will mostly do well for a net improvement over our bench from last year.  

As far as the overall team record, I am not ready, with the change to the schedule format next year, to make that prediction.  However, given what I understand, I think if we repeat our record from 2022, this will be an INCREDIBLE net improvement.  More on that later