Lucroy tried to play the trade to his advantage instead of doing the right thing for baseball. He is an ass. Hopefully he has no more good luck in baseball.
Giovanny Urshela should be up with the Indians. Yandy Diaz can't play third base at the ML level. He is starting to hit well and I want to see him in the majors. Maybe they can play him in the OF. Unfortunately, with his limited experience and Francona's dislike for rookies, I don't see that happening. I do have to laugh at those who are saying to bring up Diaz. He is not a third baseman and isn't really ready in the OF, either.
I am just sick of seeing Juan Uribe. No one knows that he is good in the locker room. I don't think that he brings a single thing to this team on or off the field that they actually need to continue to win.
Message to the Indians: Don't panic and make a stupid trade tomorrow. Jay Bruce is mediocre and gives us essentially 3 DHs. In the OF he sucks and might not help much in the AL playoffs. In the WS we are already down to Napoli or Santana in the NL park, putting Bruce out in the field gives us another defensive liability. But the main thing is the cost to get him. He is NOT worth what we were going to pay for Lucroy.
To all my friends at scout.com all I can say is see you next time!
Sunday, July 31, 2016
Well, this sucks...and it makes the Miller trade suck more
Lucroy vetoes the trade which essentially screws our chances of making the World Series and we gave up all those prospects for Miller. So the loss of those prospects is now a TOTAL waste.
Wow, what a Sunday!
Well, anyone who ever said the Indians won't go for it when they have a chance is now shut up...for good.
For those of you who don't want to read the detailed analysis below let me summarize here: I am OK with the Lucroy trade but the Miller trade is not needed nor does it address the holes in our lineup. I think we could have used the prospects we used to get Miller and gotten Ryan Braun and Will Allen from the Brewers...and maybe saved a prospect or two as, in my opinion, trading great prospects to one team for essentially two trades (Lucroy and then Braun/Allen) would be cheaper than trading prospects to two different teams where each team had to justify what they were giving up. Getting Miller was great but it was like collecting duplicates of baseball cards. Yeah, it's nice to have them but it doesn't really complete your collection, does it? Unless the Indians KNOW that Brantley is going to come back 100% by the playoffs (and with all the crap going on how COULD they know this) they have spent a lot of prospects and haven't completed what I would consider a Cavaliers-like roster, one so good that it was impossible to keep it out of the Series and, unlike the NBA, with no Golden State-like roster waiting for them in the AL playoffs or World Series. We gave up a lot, not enough to kill our farm system and we certainly sold high on ALL of the prospects (Sheffield, Frazier, Greg Allen, Feyereisen, Heller, Chang and Mejia), we gave up but for that price we should have finalized our WS lineup with Brantley becoming just icing on the cake instead of a necessary piece like he is now. [BTW, google the longest hit streaks in the history of the minor leagues and see how all of those players ended up...just sayin').
We made ourselves better but I don't think it was enough to keep any of us from sweating the last two months of the season. I don't even think we separated ourselves significantly from Detroit who could leapfrog over us if they make a daring trade or two before Monday afternoon.\
Now for that deatailed analysis I was talking about:
So assuming the Lucroy trade goes through, let's examine these two trades from both the perspective of what the Indians got and what they gave away. But let's begin with what the Indians needed going into the deadline.
What the Indians needed: Look, every team has it weaknesses. Looking at the Yankees lineup I was saying to myself how could this team compete? The fact is they can't, even with their lights out bullpen. Using the Cavaliers as an example, they had five stud players, 4 of whom are used to playing with the ball. To win two of those other two guys (Love and Smith) had to change their roles totally. Still, they were/are 5 very good players who almost every team in the league would have as starters. There were no holes there.
Coming into this deadline the Indians had 4 needs: situational lefty, outfielder with power if Brantley didn't make it back and a quality third baseman and quality catcher.
What the Indians got: The Indians filled one gaping hole in their lineup with Lucroy. With luck and health he will make a huge difference in their offensive production and how the lineup will set up. They still have a gaping hole at third base and, frankly, could use a power hitting outfielder. By not acquiring someone (Ryan Braun, for example) they are essentially counting on Brantley to come back at close to 100% of his ability before the playoffs. If he is not back or back at 85%, we might as well not have him because an 85% player in the playoffs is much like a 60% player in the regular season. Not very effective. Getting Lucroy doesn't help if we have to play Almonte or Uribe. If either of them are on the playoff roster, let alone getting playing time in the playoffs, I think we are totally screwed.
As far as Miller, getting him was overkill. We were looking for a situational lefty. Miller is NOT a situational lefty and at his salary and the cost to get him, he better be our closer. But we had a closer and an 8th inning guy. So we paid a steep price to get a guy who was more than what we needed. We'll talk below about the farm system but the thing to think about here is that we not only lost prospects but we also diminished the role of McAllister, Otero and Manship, who have been good enough over the past two years that we were able to dump the serviceable Chamberlin this year. Not that Joba was great but on teams without as much bullpen depth as we have, he was a decent piece to a bullpen puzzle. One thing for sure, Francona LOVES this move as it keeps him from EVER having to pitch a rookie or near-rookie again this season. Plus it puts the three veterans above in a situation that, if they accept their roles, they become like the Cavalier bench players were: guys who produce when called upon but who are not called upon much.
What we gave up - OK, let's begin by saying that the Indians paid deadline prices for players. For all of you who have jousted with me over the years about the Sabathia trade and the Cliff Lee trade where we traded defending Cy Young award winners for pittance, we gave away MUCH more in these trades than we ever got back in those two. Yeah, we got Brantley back who was not even good enough to be in the original group of players for Sabathia. He was an add on as the PTBNL in that deal. Plus, while Carrasco was a good prospect he was enigmatic for the Phils and they were not that unhappy to be rid of him. On paper, both of those trades sucked.
In the Lucroy trade we gave up 3 solid prospects. I will say that we sold high on Mejia and I am pretty sure we sold high on both Chiang and Allen, too. However, on paper it looks like the Brewers got 3 of our top 30 prospects and maybe two (Chiang and Mejia) of our top 15. A pretty good haul for a catcher who we only control for about 1.3 seasons.
In the Miller trade we gave up our best prospect in Frazier and another top 10 prospect in Sheffield. I will say that I think we sold high on Frazier and I am thinking Sheffield will be a year-to-year guy, meaning he will only advance a level each season and I think it will take him until 2020 before he stays on a big league roster for a full season. As far as Feyereisen and Heller, these are guys who could turn into Bryan Shaw types or could just be Armstrong/Adams types who never establish themselves. Clearly the Yankees are more willing to give opportunities to these guys than to the Francona-led Indians.
Final Summary - I think we gave up A LOT in these trades. Will it kill our farm system? No. I think the guys we gave up will only become real contributors about the time the current window is closing in 2019 or 2020. At the same time, we did not do enough to make this a favorite to make the World Series. For me, I would have given up the talent we gave up for Miller to get Will Allen and Ryan Braun in addition to Lucroy. That trade would have given us a place in the World Series. The two trades we made did not do that. When you trade away that many prospects you ought to guarantee getting to the WS. We didn't do that here and I think, down the road, it may cause us to come up a little short.
In summary, let's take a look at our lineup now and what it would have been with Braun and Allen:
Davis - LF
Kipnis - 2B
Lindor - SS
Braun - RF
Santana - DH
Lucroy - C
Napoli - 1B
Ramirez - 3B
Naquin - CF
If you substitute Brantley for Braun you are OK. However, without either this lineup comes up a little short. With Brantley AND Braun, even with Davis and Naquin platooning, this lineup is the best in the majors, top to bottom. To go with the best rotation in the majors and solid, if not spectacular relief (basically substituting Will Allen for Crockett and getting a healthy McAllister back, we would be a WS team.
Looking at our lineup now we have:
Davis LF
Kipnis 2B
Lindor SS
Napoli 1B
Lucroy C
Santana DH
Ramirez 3B
Chisenhall/Almonte RF
Naquin CF
...or worse if Naquin isn't in the lineup. That lineup, without Brantley, is not good enough to get to the WS and especially not to win it.
For those of you who don't want to read the detailed analysis below let me summarize here: I am OK with the Lucroy trade but the Miller trade is not needed nor does it address the holes in our lineup. I think we could have used the prospects we used to get Miller and gotten Ryan Braun and Will Allen from the Brewers...and maybe saved a prospect or two as, in my opinion, trading great prospects to one team for essentially two trades (Lucroy and then Braun/Allen) would be cheaper than trading prospects to two different teams where each team had to justify what they were giving up. Getting Miller was great but it was like collecting duplicates of baseball cards. Yeah, it's nice to have them but it doesn't really complete your collection, does it? Unless the Indians KNOW that Brantley is going to come back 100% by the playoffs (and with all the crap going on how COULD they know this) they have spent a lot of prospects and haven't completed what I would consider a Cavaliers-like roster, one so good that it was impossible to keep it out of the Series and, unlike the NBA, with no Golden State-like roster waiting for them in the AL playoffs or World Series. We gave up a lot, not enough to kill our farm system and we certainly sold high on ALL of the prospects (Sheffield, Frazier, Greg Allen, Feyereisen, Heller, Chang and Mejia), we gave up but for that price we should have finalized our WS lineup with Brantley becoming just icing on the cake instead of a necessary piece like he is now. [BTW, google the longest hit streaks in the history of the minor leagues and see how all of those players ended up...just sayin').
We made ourselves better but I don't think it was enough to keep any of us from sweating the last two months of the season. I don't even think we separated ourselves significantly from Detroit who could leapfrog over us if they make a daring trade or two before Monday afternoon.\
Now for that deatailed analysis I was talking about:
So assuming the Lucroy trade goes through, let's examine these two trades from both the perspective of what the Indians got and what they gave away. But let's begin with what the Indians needed going into the deadline.
What the Indians needed: Look, every team has it weaknesses. Looking at the Yankees lineup I was saying to myself how could this team compete? The fact is they can't, even with their lights out bullpen. Using the Cavaliers as an example, they had five stud players, 4 of whom are used to playing with the ball. To win two of those other two guys (Love and Smith) had to change their roles totally. Still, they were/are 5 very good players who almost every team in the league would have as starters. There were no holes there.
Coming into this deadline the Indians had 4 needs: situational lefty, outfielder with power if Brantley didn't make it back and a quality third baseman and quality catcher.
What the Indians got: The Indians filled one gaping hole in their lineup with Lucroy. With luck and health he will make a huge difference in their offensive production and how the lineup will set up. They still have a gaping hole at third base and, frankly, could use a power hitting outfielder. By not acquiring someone (Ryan Braun, for example) they are essentially counting on Brantley to come back at close to 100% of his ability before the playoffs. If he is not back or back at 85%, we might as well not have him because an 85% player in the playoffs is much like a 60% player in the regular season. Not very effective. Getting Lucroy doesn't help if we have to play Almonte or Uribe. If either of them are on the playoff roster, let alone getting playing time in the playoffs, I think we are totally screwed.
As far as Miller, getting him was overkill. We were looking for a situational lefty. Miller is NOT a situational lefty and at his salary and the cost to get him, he better be our closer. But we had a closer and an 8th inning guy. So we paid a steep price to get a guy who was more than what we needed. We'll talk below about the farm system but the thing to think about here is that we not only lost prospects but we also diminished the role of McAllister, Otero and Manship, who have been good enough over the past two years that we were able to dump the serviceable Chamberlin this year. Not that Joba was great but on teams without as much bullpen depth as we have, he was a decent piece to a bullpen puzzle. One thing for sure, Francona LOVES this move as it keeps him from EVER having to pitch a rookie or near-rookie again this season. Plus it puts the three veterans above in a situation that, if they accept their roles, they become like the Cavalier bench players were: guys who produce when called upon but who are not called upon much.
What we gave up - OK, let's begin by saying that the Indians paid deadline prices for players. For all of you who have jousted with me over the years about the Sabathia trade and the Cliff Lee trade where we traded defending Cy Young award winners for pittance, we gave away MUCH more in these trades than we ever got back in those two. Yeah, we got Brantley back who was not even good enough to be in the original group of players for Sabathia. He was an add on as the PTBNL in that deal. Plus, while Carrasco was a good prospect he was enigmatic for the Phils and they were not that unhappy to be rid of him. On paper, both of those trades sucked.
In the Lucroy trade we gave up 3 solid prospects. I will say that we sold high on Mejia and I am pretty sure we sold high on both Chiang and Allen, too. However, on paper it looks like the Brewers got 3 of our top 30 prospects and maybe two (Chiang and Mejia) of our top 15. A pretty good haul for a catcher who we only control for about 1.3 seasons.
In the Miller trade we gave up our best prospect in Frazier and another top 10 prospect in Sheffield. I will say that I think we sold high on Frazier and I am thinking Sheffield will be a year-to-year guy, meaning he will only advance a level each season and I think it will take him until 2020 before he stays on a big league roster for a full season. As far as Feyereisen and Heller, these are guys who could turn into Bryan Shaw types or could just be Armstrong/Adams types who never establish themselves. Clearly the Yankees are more willing to give opportunities to these guys than to the Francona-led Indians.
Final Summary - I think we gave up A LOT in these trades. Will it kill our farm system? No. I think the guys we gave up will only become real contributors about the time the current window is closing in 2019 or 2020. At the same time, we did not do enough to make this a favorite to make the World Series. For me, I would have given up the talent we gave up for Miller to get Will Allen and Ryan Braun in addition to Lucroy. That trade would have given us a place in the World Series. The two trades we made did not do that. When you trade away that many prospects you ought to guarantee getting to the WS. We didn't do that here and I think, down the road, it may cause us to come up a little short.
In summary, let's take a look at our lineup now and what it would have been with Braun and Allen:
Davis - LF
Kipnis - 2B
Lindor - SS
Braun - RF
Santana - DH
Lucroy - C
Napoli - 1B
Ramirez - 3B
Naquin - CF
If you substitute Brantley for Braun you are OK. However, without either this lineup comes up a little short. With Brantley AND Braun, even with Davis and Naquin platooning, this lineup is the best in the majors, top to bottom. To go with the best rotation in the majors and solid, if not spectacular relief (basically substituting Will Allen for Crockett and getting a healthy McAllister back, we would be a WS team.
Looking at our lineup now we have:
Davis LF
Kipnis 2B
Lindor SS
Napoli 1B
Lucroy C
Santana DH
Ramirez 3B
Chisenhall/Almonte RF
Naquin CF
...or worse if Naquin isn't in the lineup. That lineup, without Brantley, is not good enough to get to the WS and especially not to win it.
Friday, July 29, 2016
Prospect perspective - July 27th
OK, with everyone talking about trading prospects away to compete this year, we should probably take a look at the prospects we still have and see how they are progressing. I have used my pre-season ranking and, with that, determined if the prospect is performing at or above or below their expected level. Prospects performing above expected levels are good trade chips. Most likely their "breakthrough season" won't be sustainable. Prospects performing under expectations should not be be traded as they won't be valued as much as they should be. Prospects performing at expected levels would have to be overvalued by our trade partner for me to want to trade them. For example, I would trade Clint Frazier instead of Bradley Zimmer. I think Zimmer will have a better career and is underperforming.
1. Bradley Zimmer - Underperforming - Not worth trading at his current value
2. Clint Frazier - Overperforming - Would be a good trade chip right now
3. Mike Papi - Way underperforming. Don't trade, especially not as a throw-in to a large deal
4. Mike Clevinger - Performing at expectations. Only trade if he is key prospect traded for a big name.
5. Tyler Naquin - Overperforming. Would be a GREAT trade chip now if we got a couple of outfielders back.
6. Brady Aiken - Underperforming. Don't trade.
7. Justus Sheffield - Performing at expectations -low enough in the minors to be traded as the key piece in a big trade for a high value major leaguer
8. Tristen McKenzie - Performing at expectations - low enough in the minors to be traded as key piece
9. Bobby Bradley - At expected level - key piece or one of two below this slot for a key ML starting player
10. Adam Plutko - At expectations - could be a secondary piece
11. Juan Hillman - At expectations - keep him, too low in the minors to have true value returned for him.
12. Rob Kaminsky - Below expectations - I would actually trade him as a throw-in with one of the above for a big piece.
13. Shawn Armstrong - At expectations - see Kaminsky
14. Mitch Brown - Below expectations, has no trade value right now
15, Nellie Rodriguez - At expectations - only trade if he is overvalued by our trade partner
16. Erik Gonzalez - Above expectations - our most tradeable piece.
17. Francisco Mejia - Above expectations - interestingly they are milking his hit streak. I know he has an injury but it is like they are trying to keep the hitstreak going to increase his value. I would trade him now if he is as overvalued by our competitors as I think he would be. A Lucroy for Gonzalez/Mejia trade would work for me.
18. Shawn Morimando - Overperforming. I would keep him unless we get better value for him than I think we can
19. Dylan Baker - Injured, no trade value
20. Mark Mathias - At expected levels - keep, too low in minors to have realized trade value
21. Eric Stamets - underperforming - use as throw-in if necessary
22. Ryan Merritt - at expected levels - little trade value at this point
23. Yandy Diaz - Way overperforming - trade if he is the centerpiece or along with Gonzalez OR Mejia for a quality ML starting player
24. Yu-Cheng Chang - Above expected level - trade as centerpiece or one of two guys like Diaz
25. Giovanni Soto - Released
26. Gabriel Mejia - Below expectations - No trade value
27. Luke Wakamatsu - Injured, no trade value
28. Tyler Krieger - At expected levels, no trade value because is too low in the minors
29. Dace Kime - Way below expectations - Trade him for a situational lefty if you can get one for him
30. Luigi Rodriguez - At expected levels - no trade value
31. Luis Lugo - At expected level
32, Sean Brady - At expected level
33. Justin Garza - Injured
34. Willi Castro - At expected level
35. Greg Allen - At expected level - little trade value yet
36. Dorsyss Paulino - Injured
37. Ka'i Tom - Injured
38. Anthony Santander - Above expectations - trade him as 3rd prospect in a big trade
39. James Ramsey - Gone
40. Jesus Aguilar - Below expectations; use as a throw-in for a trade with a second division team who wants to give him a shot and hope he performs.
I would not trade anyone below this level, even as a throw-in, as they have little trade value.
1. Bradley Zimmer - Underperforming - Not worth trading at his current value
2. Clint Frazier - Overperforming - Would be a good trade chip right now
3. Mike Papi - Way underperforming. Don't trade, especially not as a throw-in to a large deal
4. Mike Clevinger - Performing at expectations. Only trade if he is key prospect traded for a big name.
5. Tyler Naquin - Overperforming. Would be a GREAT trade chip now if we got a couple of outfielders back.
6. Brady Aiken - Underperforming. Don't trade.
7. Justus Sheffield - Performing at expectations -low enough in the minors to be traded as the key piece in a big trade for a high value major leaguer
8. Tristen McKenzie - Performing at expectations - low enough in the minors to be traded as key piece
9. Bobby Bradley - At expected level - key piece or one of two below this slot for a key ML starting player
10. Adam Plutko - At expectations - could be a secondary piece
11. Juan Hillman - At expectations - keep him, too low in the minors to have true value returned for him.
12. Rob Kaminsky - Below expectations - I would actually trade him as a throw-in with one of the above for a big piece.
13. Shawn Armstrong - At expectations - see Kaminsky
14. Mitch Brown - Below expectations, has no trade value right now
15, Nellie Rodriguez - At expectations - only trade if he is overvalued by our trade partner
16. Erik Gonzalez - Above expectations - our most tradeable piece.
17. Francisco Mejia - Above expectations - interestingly they are milking his hit streak. I know he has an injury but it is like they are trying to keep the hitstreak going to increase his value. I would trade him now if he is as overvalued by our competitors as I think he would be. A Lucroy for Gonzalez/Mejia trade would work for me.
18. Shawn Morimando - Overperforming. I would keep him unless we get better value for him than I think we can
19. Dylan Baker - Injured, no trade value
20. Mark Mathias - At expected levels - keep, too low in minors to have realized trade value
21. Eric Stamets - underperforming - use as throw-in if necessary
22. Ryan Merritt - at expected levels - little trade value at this point
23. Yandy Diaz - Way overperforming - trade if he is the centerpiece or along with Gonzalez OR Mejia for a quality ML starting player
24. Yu-Cheng Chang - Above expected level - trade as centerpiece or one of two guys like Diaz
25. Giovanni Soto - Released
26. Gabriel Mejia - Below expectations - No trade value
27. Luke Wakamatsu - Injured, no trade value
28. Tyler Krieger - At expected levels, no trade value because is too low in the minors
29. Dace Kime - Way below expectations - Trade him for a situational lefty if you can get one for him
30. Luigi Rodriguez - At expected levels - no trade value
31. Luis Lugo - At expected level
32, Sean Brady - At expected level
33. Justin Garza - Injured
34. Willi Castro - At expected level
35. Greg Allen - At expected level - little trade value yet
36. Dorsyss Paulino - Injured
37. Ka'i Tom - Injured
38. Anthony Santander - Above expectations - trade him as 3rd prospect in a big trade
39. James Ramsey - Gone
40. Jesus Aguilar - Below expectations; use as a throw-in for a trade with a second division team who wants to give him a shot and hope he performs.
I would not trade anyone below this level, even as a throw-in, as they have little trade value.
Tuesday, July 26, 2016
Deadline musings
The Cubs paid a lot for Chapman but it was the kind of trade that you make if you are the Cubs. The three prospects they gave up (not counting Adam Warren, the 4th player in the deal) are relatively far away from the majors, even though Torres is a top prospect. This for a rental in Chapman who likely could and I would bet WOULD end up back with the Yankees this winter as a free agent. The Cubs would not get a draft pick for him as they acquired him in the middle of his free agent walk year. So, it is all or nothing this year for the Cubs but in doing this trade they really didn't hurt the next 2-3 years of the ML team as none of these guys would likely have impacted the Cubbies in that time period. In fact, as we know about prospects, these guys are as likely to underwhelm as overwhelm as they move up the latter.
On the other hand, I think the Blue Jays got a steal in the Melvin Upton trade. The Padres essentially gave him away paying a lot of salary and getting back only an OK prospect for a guy under contract through next year. Maybe the Padres figured they sold high on Upton. I think they got robbed on this one and I am a little upset the Tribe couldn't have easily bested the Blue Jays offer and still not put any size dent in their farm system.
But this is the way of the August 1st deadline trades. Some teams overpay, some teams underpay. As fans we just scratch our heads at the underpayment and hope our team doesn't overpay the way the Cubs did for just a rental.
For those of you who would consider doing this kind of deal, if we had done one last year we night not have Lindor, or Ramirez or Naquin right now. I can't imagine anyone else we could have gotten who would make me think that we had gotten a good deal had we traded one of these three. So maybe PLAY the young guys and forget the deadline deals. Remember that all teams have warts. I can't believe some of the guys I see being starting players for contenders. So maybe we just run with our warts and hope for the best. Hey, if we could get Braun, Lucroy and a reliever and not completely gut the farm system I would be all for it. But how to do that and who we would have to give up is the question.
On the other hand, I think the Blue Jays got a steal in the Melvin Upton trade. The Padres essentially gave him away paying a lot of salary and getting back only an OK prospect for a guy under contract through next year. Maybe the Padres figured they sold high on Upton. I think they got robbed on this one and I am a little upset the Tribe couldn't have easily bested the Blue Jays offer and still not put any size dent in their farm system.
But this is the way of the August 1st deadline trades. Some teams overpay, some teams underpay. As fans we just scratch our heads at the underpayment and hope our team doesn't overpay the way the Cubs did for just a rental.
For those of you who would consider doing this kind of deal, if we had done one last year we night not have Lindor, or Ramirez or Naquin right now. I can't imagine anyone else we could have gotten who would make me think that we had gotten a good deal had we traded one of these three. So maybe PLAY the young guys and forget the deadline deals. Remember that all teams have warts. I can't believe some of the guys I see being starting players for contenders. So maybe we just run with our warts and hope for the best. Hey, if we could get Braun, Lucroy and a reliever and not completely gut the farm system I would be all for it. But how to do that and who we would have to give up is the question.
Thursday, July 21, 2016
Deadline musings - No Rincon-for-Giles trades...or worse
OK, we are in first place with the best record in the AL.
We still have issues, but so does every team, even those in contention. No one is so solid that we are thinking about them the way the NBA was thinking about the Cavaliers and the Warriors.
So, what do we do by the first (Aug. 1st) and second (Aug. 31st) trade deadlines?
The non-waiver trade deadline on Aug. 1st is a time where people jumpstart their teams. It is a time where pretenders try to become contenders by outdistancing their competition to create more wins in the season's final two months.
Well, as it looks currently (and I know things can change in a hurry) we don't have any competition that we need to outdistance ourselves from.
The only reason for us to do anything at all by Aug. 1st, in my opinion, is if we can make our team incrementally better with a minimal cost to us. Think of the Ricardo Rincon for Marshall McDougall trade, but in reverse. Of course, if we could get Ryan Braun and Jonathon Lucroy from the Brewers for Clevinger, Gonzalez and Frazier I would take that. Basically, we give up some future talent that we already have duplicates for and get back a lot of expensive, current, older talent from a team that should be looking for a total rebuild. Don't get me wrong. I don't think there is any way this would happen but, if it could, I would have to jump on it.
Other than that blockbuster, I just wouldn't overpay for someone at the deadline. It's just not worth it. We remain the Cleveland Indians and we need prospects. Now, if Brady Aiken looked good right now, if Mike Papi was a solid prospect, if Zimmer was having a breakout year instead of hanging on by his bootstraps, and it looked like in the mid-minors we had other guys who were becoming prime trade chips, I would be more OK with dealing minor league talent. However, right now we have a strong system but one without a lot of depth in the middle minors. Any trade of prime talent weakens the minor league system substantially and as a Cleveland fan who knows the financial realities of baseball, I just wouldn't do that.
So, we would be Ricardo Rincon-like shopping at the deadline...and I mean his trade to Oakland, NOT his trade from Pittsburgh to Cleveland for Brian Giles. As a matter of fact, any trade I could make right now that was not the above trade with Milwaukee would likely be available in August.
So, unless we get a favorable exchange of talent due to us takin on more salary I see no need to trade by August 1st. I think we can do as well in August for MUCH less talent (see the Rincon to Oakland trade).
Just my opinion.
We still have issues, but so does every team, even those in contention. No one is so solid that we are thinking about them the way the NBA was thinking about the Cavaliers and the Warriors.
So, what do we do by the first (Aug. 1st) and second (Aug. 31st) trade deadlines?
The non-waiver trade deadline on Aug. 1st is a time where people jumpstart their teams. It is a time where pretenders try to become contenders by outdistancing their competition to create more wins in the season's final two months.
Well, as it looks currently (and I know things can change in a hurry) we don't have any competition that we need to outdistance ourselves from.
The only reason for us to do anything at all by Aug. 1st, in my opinion, is if we can make our team incrementally better with a minimal cost to us. Think of the Ricardo Rincon for Marshall McDougall trade, but in reverse. Of course, if we could get Ryan Braun and Jonathon Lucroy from the Brewers for Clevinger, Gonzalez and Frazier I would take that. Basically, we give up some future talent that we already have duplicates for and get back a lot of expensive, current, older talent from a team that should be looking for a total rebuild. Don't get me wrong. I don't think there is any way this would happen but, if it could, I would have to jump on it.
Other than that blockbuster, I just wouldn't overpay for someone at the deadline. It's just not worth it. We remain the Cleveland Indians and we need prospects. Now, if Brady Aiken looked good right now, if Mike Papi was a solid prospect, if Zimmer was having a breakout year instead of hanging on by his bootstraps, and it looked like in the mid-minors we had other guys who were becoming prime trade chips, I would be more OK with dealing minor league talent. However, right now we have a strong system but one without a lot of depth in the middle minors. Any trade of prime talent weakens the minor league system substantially and as a Cleveland fan who knows the financial realities of baseball, I just wouldn't do that.
So, we would be Ricardo Rincon-like shopping at the deadline...and I mean his trade to Oakland, NOT his trade from Pittsburgh to Cleveland for Brian Giles. As a matter of fact, any trade I could make right now that was not the above trade with Milwaukee would likely be available in August.
So, unless we get a favorable exchange of talent due to us takin on more salary I see no need to trade by August 1st. I think we can do as well in August for MUCH less talent (see the Rincon to Oakland trade).
Just my opinion.
Sunday, July 17, 2016
International signing period post
The Indians continue to give the impression of being bottom feeders in the Latin American market. Here is a list of the guys, according to Baseball America, that they have signed since July 2nd.
Cleveland Indians
Marcos Gonzalez, ss, Dominican Republic (No. 27 prospect), $250,000.
Carlos Vargas, rhp, Dominican Republic, $275,000.
Nehemias Celestin, 3b, Dominican Republic, $185,000.
Gaspar Palacios, ss, Colombia, $150,000.
Jeikol Contreras, 3b, Dominican Republic, $100,000.
Jesus Maestre, 2b, Venezuela
Makesiondon Kelkboom-Profar, ss, Curacao, $125,000.
Luis Garcia, rhp, Venezuela
Marcos Gonzalez, ss, Dominican Republic (No. 27 prospect), $250,000.
Carlos Vargas, rhp, Dominican Republic, $275,000.
Nehemias Celestin, 3b, Dominican Republic, $185,000.
Gaspar Palacios, ss, Colombia, $150,000.
Jeikol Contreras, 3b, Dominican Republic, $100,000.
Jesus Maestre, 2b, Venezuela
Makesiondon Kelkboom-Profar, ss, Curacao, $125,000.
Luis Garcia, rhp, Venezuela
There are always a lot of signings as 8 guys do not a DSL team make. But these appear to be the most significant signings so far this summer.
Only one guy in the BA top 50 international free agents list and he is #27. However, before we all panic remember the Indians have gotten Danny Salazar and others from their style which is to outwork the competition because we can't outspend them. There also seems to be a trepidation to blow their whole bonus pool on one guy, given these guys sign at 16 years old.
Of course, they have flopped a lot, especially with their most expensive signings, even though those bonus amounts pale in comparison to what other teams are giving their top Latin signees. For example, Grofi Cruz was just released and he was a guy who got a good bonus $400,000, even though many in the industry scratched their heads when the Indians signed him for that amount.
Still, with all that being said some of their Latin guys are putting up good numbers in the minors. Heck, the AZL team's best players right now are not our 2016 draftees but, rather, our Latin guys.
So keep your heads up, hope for a quick recovery from Yan Gomes and that our scouts know what they are doing and our player development people are successful.
What is up with Gomes?
NOTE: I am going to leave this post here but it is a shame we couldn't find out and fix what is wrong with Yan Gomes. The separated shoulder is a bad break for a guy who has fought through other injuries which have really, so far, put a damper on what began as a promising career. Plus, although he says his knee feels fine it may require some rehab, too. We all wish him a fast recovery and, hopefully, when he comes back he will be like the Yan Gomes we loved a couple of years ago. So, here is my original post.
Look, I am all about keeping our own guys playing but we are in trouble here.
Frankly, I don't know if Yan Gomes is bringing ANYTHING to the table with him at this point. He hits like an AL pitcher. I'll give you the ASSUMPTION that he is helping the pitching staff but I don't know that for a fact. His control of the running game looks good but it is based on a pretty small sample size. And, finally, he lost us the game yesterday on defense. Did you see that play? It was crazy. It was like a 10 year old catcher trying to make a play with the runner coming in and just missing the ball. And it was a force play. He didn't even have to touch the runner. Gomes cost us that game yesterday by failing to make a play that any catcher in the Indians' minor league system would have made with ease. I have heard of taking your defense to the plate with you and vice versa but this was a pathetic play from a guy who, at this point, might not be giving you much else.
I don't know what the answer is but there HAS to be something mentally and/or physically wrong with this guy. No one this side of Carlos Baerga tanks it the way this guy has. Imagine where we would be if he played just to his ML averages! I really don't know what to say at this point but this is beyond frustrating.
I'll tell you what. In NY this guy would already have been out of town on a bus. That media and their fans would have fileted him by now to such an extent the ownership would have had to get rid of him to prevent a fan-based uprising
Let's hope he figures it out because right now his WAR has to be about -162. Obviously that is meant as a joke but, right now, I FEEL any ML catcher could offer more to us than Gomes.
It's time to come clean. What is wrong with this guy. He looks like a real-life version of Heaven Can Wait with me ending up in his body and trying to play ML baseball.
...and now he is injured! I don't know whether to be happy or upset! Maybe some time on the DL will help but is Roberto Perez back all the way yet?
Look, I am all about keeping our own guys playing but we are in trouble here.
Frankly, I don't know if Yan Gomes is bringing ANYTHING to the table with him at this point. He hits like an AL pitcher. I'll give you the ASSUMPTION that he is helping the pitching staff but I don't know that for a fact. His control of the running game looks good but it is based on a pretty small sample size. And, finally, he lost us the game yesterday on defense. Did you see that play? It was crazy. It was like a 10 year old catcher trying to make a play with the runner coming in and just missing the ball. And it was a force play. He didn't even have to touch the runner. Gomes cost us that game yesterday by failing to make a play that any catcher in the Indians' minor league system would have made with ease. I have heard of taking your defense to the plate with you and vice versa but this was a pathetic play from a guy who, at this point, might not be giving you much else.
I don't know what the answer is but there HAS to be something mentally and/or physically wrong with this guy. No one this side of Carlos Baerga tanks it the way this guy has. Imagine where we would be if he played just to his ML averages! I really don't know what to say at this point but this is beyond frustrating.
I'll tell you what. In NY this guy would already have been out of town on a bus. That media and their fans would have fileted him by now to such an extent the ownership would have had to get rid of him to prevent a fan-based uprising
Let's hope he figures it out because right now his WAR has to be about -162. Obviously that is meant as a joke but, right now, I FEEL any ML catcher could offer more to us than Gomes.
It's time to come clean. What is wrong with this guy. He looks like a real-life version of Heaven Can Wait with me ending up in his body and trying to play ML baseball.
...and now he is injured! I don't know whether to be happy or upset! Maybe some time on the DL will help but is Roberto Perez back all the way yet?
Friday, July 15, 2016
Final 2016 draft STRATEGY AND EXECUTION analysis
We have passed the signing deadline and know who the Indians were able to sign and who they didn't sign from the 2016 first year player draft. With this information, it is time to make an initial judgement of this draft. However, since you can only really judge a draft 5 years or so down the road when you see how players develop, this post will be more about the draft strategy that was at the heart of the Indians' draft and execution of that draft strategy.
Before we get into a discussion about the strategy of this draft, let me give this draft an overall grade of B+ based on my assessment of the talent we obtained (although, statistically, if you look at what these guys have done so far, most of the scouts should be fired :-)). Had we gotten any of our late round flyers to sign it might have pushed this draft up to an A- or an A. Still, this is a very good draft for the Indians, considering that 13 teams got to draft in each round before the Indians did. Not only does that mean that the Indians had fewer prospects to pick from, it also means that the bonus money they had to spend was in the bottom half of all of baseball. So, with those limitations, the Indians had to come up with a good strategy if they wanted to make this a good draft. Let's talk about what they did.
The Indians drafted aggressively and, as I indicated at draft time , it was questionable whether the Indians had enough money to sign all their picks in the first 10 rounds. As it turned out, they barely did, leaving only about $48,000 from their bonus pool of $7.7 million...while still signing all the guys they drafted in rounds 1-10. The strategy I think the Indians used is very different than I have seen them use in the past and I really like it. What was so different about their strategy?
This draft was about balancing acquiring top talent (Benson and Jones) with not giving in to wasting picks on college seniors and other guys who would sign for peanuts (to save money for Jones). When you do that you tend to get less talent with those college seniors than you would if you picked the best available, signable prospect left at that slot. Instead of drafting college seniors to save money, the Indians chose carefully the players they drafted after their first two picks to make sure they got SOME current talent and some real intriguing young, projectable prospects while drafting players who, for the most part, would sign for at or under their slot values. The college players they drafted in the first 10 rounds were picked with the idea that while they had limited upside, they all project as future major leaguers with most likely to change the role they had on their college team. Besides Jones and Benson and those college juniors, the other players drafted in the first 10 rounds were HS players and one JUCO player, all of whom had significant upside and who would sign for slot or slot bonuses. By doing this the Indians were able to save $50,000 to $150,000 per player which, when multiplied over 10 rounds, added up to over $1 million in savings from their bonus pool. They then used this excess to sign Jones. At the same time they got intriguing talent that I believe might produce the most major leaguers the Indians have gotten out of a draft in the last 15 years or more.
Now, let's talk about their draft strategy pick-by-pick for the first 10 rounds.
1. Benson - I think they valued Benson a little more than other teams did. As I said before, the mantra of any draft for any team is "teams like who they like". All you have to do is watch Benson and you can see he has issues with his swing but the athleticism and raw talent is there. These drafts are so fluid, however, that someone would have likely snapped him up before the 55th selection in the draft. So the Indians, knowing how much they liked him and that he wouldn't be there when they picked in the 2nd round, popped him at #14 overall. In doing this they almost assuredly had to know Benson would sign for less than slot and that they could apply their savings below slot to a later pick.
2. Jones - Frankly, I don't know that Jones was their target here but clearly somewhere in this draft they wanted to use the money they saved from Benson (and any other picks they could save money on) to draft a high profile prospect (Jones was the 19th best player in the draft) who had dropped in the draft due to bonus demands. I think the Indians knew what Jones was looking for and decided to go for him as they thought they could get to his bonus demands by saving money throughout the rest of the first 10 rounds.
Now, here is where it gets interesting and they started to apply their strategy. The scouting staff knew what players to draft to get talent AND meet what they needed to get Jones signed.
Great scouting by the Indians allowed them to sign high schoolers Capel and Cantu for slot value when most everyone thought it would take above slot bonuses to get them signed. This, to me, was the key to this draft strategy working. Had Capel and Cantu required overslot bonuses that would have made it impossible for us to meet Jones' bonus demands, which would likely have significantly weakened our draft from a total talent obtained perspective.
The Indians then finished out the top 10 rounds with solid, low-ceiling, low-floor college players and a couple of young, unpolished intriguing talents in Nelson and Taylor who they must have liked more than other teams. Because they had a good estimation of what the industry thought of the talents of these guys I think they knew each would sign for less than slot. They are banking on the player development staff polishing these guys into major leaguers. While this is a main part of the player development staff's job, of course, at no time in my memory did we have enough of these types of kids from one draft. No more Cody Bunkelmans and other picks that were wastes from the moment they were announced. These first 10 round guys all have, in my mind, a clear development path to get to the majors. No more "...and then a miracle happened" drafting by the Indians. At least not in this draft.
Interesting strategy but it all hinged on using almost all their excess money on Jones AND IT WORKED!
Let me be clear about this: To know about what Jones would want almost to the dollar and to get that extra money, almost to the dollar, without just punting and drafting college seniors was brilliant. To get the additional talent we got while getting Jones his money is, indeed, also stunningly well-orchestrated and genius.
The quality of their thought process didn't end there, however. As all teams do, they had contingency plans if Jones didn't sign with Baird and others who could have split the $1 million plus we saved on the other first round bonuses. If Jones hadn't signed we would have gotten our second round pick back next year and still had over $1 million to sign some of these late round flyers. Again, while not out of the ordinary, still good planning by the Indians to get quality players who would end up playing the same positions that the players drafted in the first 10 rounds played. For example, Ben Baird is a highly ranked HS shortstop. If Jones didn't sign Baird would have been his replacement. We drafted two college catchers in the first 10 rounds. If they didn't sign we drafted two highly rated high school catchers in later rounds (three HS catchers overall). We also drafted relatively highly rated HS outfielders and third basemen, mirroring guys we drafted in the first 10 rounds. While I know this has happened before, it seemed this time to be more systematic and planned than in past Indians' drafts.
So, excellent draft strategy by the Indians, maybe the best I have ever seen from them. The only thing that could have made it better would have been if they had been able to shave another $100K from Benson and $400K from Jones to give them $500,000 to throw at late round flyers. Unfortunately, that did not happen but it doesn't change the quality of this draft. It just makes it top-end heavy and, at least on paper, it appears that our chances of getting even a fringe major leaguer out of the rounds from 11-40, while not zero is probably more unlikely than it has been in the past 5 years. Also, based on the way this draft played out, it appears on the surface that if Benson and Jones don't become impact players, this draft might well end up producing only spare parts and role players. As I said previously, however, if everything clicks this draft could produce an unusually high number of major leaguers of various contribution types.
So, while there is SOME truth to the baseball draft being a crapshoot due to injuries and failed projections, this is a good draft that I think was built on analytics. I hope we will be remembering this draft fondly five years from now. I think there is a better than average change of that.
Before we get into a discussion about the strategy of this draft, let me give this draft an overall grade of B+ based on my assessment of the talent we obtained (although, statistically, if you look at what these guys have done so far, most of the scouts should be fired :-)). Had we gotten any of our late round flyers to sign it might have pushed this draft up to an A- or an A. Still, this is a very good draft for the Indians, considering that 13 teams got to draft in each round before the Indians did. Not only does that mean that the Indians had fewer prospects to pick from, it also means that the bonus money they had to spend was in the bottom half of all of baseball. So, with those limitations, the Indians had to come up with a good strategy if they wanted to make this a good draft. Let's talk about what they did.
The Indians drafted aggressively and, as I indicated at draft time , it was questionable whether the Indians had enough money to sign all their picks in the first 10 rounds. As it turned out, they barely did, leaving only about $48,000 from their bonus pool of $7.7 million...while still signing all the guys they drafted in rounds 1-10. The strategy I think the Indians used is very different than I have seen them use in the past and I really like it. What was so different about their strategy?
This draft was about balancing acquiring top talent (Benson and Jones) with not giving in to wasting picks on college seniors and other guys who would sign for peanuts (to save money for Jones). When you do that you tend to get less talent with those college seniors than you would if you picked the best available, signable prospect left at that slot. Instead of drafting college seniors to save money, the Indians chose carefully the players they drafted after their first two picks to make sure they got SOME current talent and some real intriguing young, projectable prospects while drafting players who, for the most part, would sign for at or under their slot values. The college players they drafted in the first 10 rounds were picked with the idea that while they had limited upside, they all project as future major leaguers with most likely to change the role they had on their college team. Besides Jones and Benson and those college juniors, the other players drafted in the first 10 rounds were HS players and one JUCO player, all of whom had significant upside and who would sign for slot or slot bonuses. By doing this the Indians were able to save $50,000 to $150,000 per player which, when multiplied over 10 rounds, added up to over $1 million in savings from their bonus pool. They then used this excess to sign Jones. At the same time they got intriguing talent that I believe might produce the most major leaguers the Indians have gotten out of a draft in the last 15 years or more.
Now, let's talk about their draft strategy pick-by-pick for the first 10 rounds.
1. Benson - I think they valued Benson a little more than other teams did. As I said before, the mantra of any draft for any team is "teams like who they like". All you have to do is watch Benson and you can see he has issues with his swing but the athleticism and raw talent is there. These drafts are so fluid, however, that someone would have likely snapped him up before the 55th selection in the draft. So the Indians, knowing how much they liked him and that he wouldn't be there when they picked in the 2nd round, popped him at #14 overall. In doing this they almost assuredly had to know Benson would sign for less than slot and that they could apply their savings below slot to a later pick.
2. Jones - Frankly, I don't know that Jones was their target here but clearly somewhere in this draft they wanted to use the money they saved from Benson (and any other picks they could save money on) to draft a high profile prospect (Jones was the 19th best player in the draft) who had dropped in the draft due to bonus demands. I think the Indians knew what Jones was looking for and decided to go for him as they thought they could get to his bonus demands by saving money throughout the rest of the first 10 rounds.
Now, here is where it gets interesting and they started to apply their strategy. The scouting staff knew what players to draft to get talent AND meet what they needed to get Jones signed.
Great scouting by the Indians allowed them to sign high schoolers Capel and Cantu for slot value when most everyone thought it would take above slot bonuses to get them signed. This, to me, was the key to this draft strategy working. Had Capel and Cantu required overslot bonuses that would have made it impossible for us to meet Jones' bonus demands, which would likely have significantly weakened our draft from a total talent obtained perspective.
The Indians then finished out the top 10 rounds with solid, low-ceiling, low-floor college players and a couple of young, unpolished intriguing talents in Nelson and Taylor who they must have liked more than other teams. Because they had a good estimation of what the industry thought of the talents of these guys I think they knew each would sign for less than slot. They are banking on the player development staff polishing these guys into major leaguers. While this is a main part of the player development staff's job, of course, at no time in my memory did we have enough of these types of kids from one draft. No more Cody Bunkelmans and other picks that were wastes from the moment they were announced. These first 10 round guys all have, in my mind, a clear development path to get to the majors. No more "...and then a miracle happened" drafting by the Indians. At least not in this draft.
Interesting strategy but it all hinged on using almost all their excess money on Jones AND IT WORKED!
Let me be clear about this: To know about what Jones would want almost to the dollar and to get that extra money, almost to the dollar, without just punting and drafting college seniors was brilliant. To get the additional talent we got while getting Jones his money is, indeed, also stunningly well-orchestrated and genius.
The quality of their thought process didn't end there, however. As all teams do, they had contingency plans if Jones didn't sign with Baird and others who could have split the $1 million plus we saved on the other first round bonuses. If Jones hadn't signed we would have gotten our second round pick back next year and still had over $1 million to sign some of these late round flyers. Again, while not out of the ordinary, still good planning by the Indians to get quality players who would end up playing the same positions that the players drafted in the first 10 rounds played. For example, Ben Baird is a highly ranked HS shortstop. If Jones didn't sign Baird would have been his replacement. We drafted two college catchers in the first 10 rounds. If they didn't sign we drafted two highly rated high school catchers in later rounds (three HS catchers overall). We also drafted relatively highly rated HS outfielders and third basemen, mirroring guys we drafted in the first 10 rounds. While I know this has happened before, it seemed this time to be more systematic and planned than in past Indians' drafts.
So, excellent draft strategy by the Indians, maybe the best I have ever seen from them. The only thing that could have made it better would have been if they had been able to shave another $100K from Benson and $400K from Jones to give them $500,000 to throw at late round flyers. Unfortunately, that did not happen but it doesn't change the quality of this draft. It just makes it top-end heavy and, at least on paper, it appears that our chances of getting even a fringe major leaguer out of the rounds from 11-40, while not zero is probably more unlikely than it has been in the past 5 years. Also, based on the way this draft played out, it appears on the surface that if Benson and Jones don't become impact players, this draft might well end up producing only spare parts and role players. As I said previously, however, if everything clicks this draft could produce an unusually high number of major leaguers of various contribution types.
So, while there is SOME truth to the baseball draft being a crapshoot due to injuries and failed projections, this is a good draft that I think was built on analytics. I hope we will be remembering this draft fondly five years from now. I think there is a better than average change of that.
7-15 Draft pool and signing update and a thought about signing more guys and incurring MLB penalites
Draft pool update:
Right now we appear to be at our maximum if we gave Calica extra money. Assuming we burned all of $47,000+ excess on Calica, we also owe MLB $275,000+. People haven't really been mentioning this but it is part of what we have to deal with for going 4.99% over our bonus cap. These are real dollars that I am sure sting to just give away but, again, props to the Indians for not flinching at spending extra money to get the guys signed who have already signed!
Draft signing update:
Haven't heard anything new about signings going down to the wire. I doubt that we have many. Maybe DeVries, maybe Alvarez, maybe Steer. Or maybe no one. The deadline is today so we will see.
A thought:
Here are the penalties for going above your draft pool, as they pertain to the Indians this year:
0-$367,100 above maximum pool amount - 75% penalty on overage (the $275,000 mentioned above)
$367,100 - $734,200 - 75% penalty plus loss of first round pick next year
$734,200 - $1,104,400 - 100% penalty plus loss of 1st and 2nd round picks next year
>15% - 100% penalty plus loss of first round picks for the next two years.
No team has decided it is worth it to go over 4.99% over their bonus pool cap.
But what if you could get Baird, Crowe, Amditis and Baker for $1.1 million? Would it be worth it to lose our first and second round picks next year? Things can clearly change but if the draft was held right now the Indians would pick 26th in the first round and roughly 66th in the second round. These are not great draft picks as they are way down the first round AND their bonus slot values are low meaning we would have little wiggle room to combine money as we did this year.
Is there any combination of guys we haven't signed yet who would make you want to sacrifice your top two picks next year plus pay up to $1 million in penalties? Probably not but I wanted to ask the question as I don't recall seeing it asked anywhere before?
Right now we appear to be at our maximum if we gave Calica extra money. Assuming we burned all of $47,000+ excess on Calica, we also owe MLB $275,000+. People haven't really been mentioning this but it is part of what we have to deal with for going 4.99% over our bonus cap. These are real dollars that I am sure sting to just give away but, again, props to the Indians for not flinching at spending extra money to get the guys signed who have already signed!
Draft signing update:
Haven't heard anything new about signings going down to the wire. I doubt that we have many. Maybe DeVries, maybe Alvarez, maybe Steer. Or maybe no one. The deadline is today so we will see.
A thought:
Here are the penalties for going above your draft pool, as they pertain to the Indians this year:
0-$367,100 above maximum pool amount - 75% penalty on overage (the $275,000 mentioned above)
$367,100 - $734,200 - 75% penalty plus loss of first round pick next year
$734,200 - $1,104,400 - 100% penalty plus loss of 1st and 2nd round picks next year
>15% - 100% penalty plus loss of first round picks for the next two years.
No team has decided it is worth it to go over 4.99% over their bonus pool cap.
But what if you could get Baird, Crowe, Amditis and Baker for $1.1 million? Would it be worth it to lose our first and second round picks next year? Things can clearly change but if the draft was held right now the Indians would pick 26th in the first round and roughly 66th in the second round. These are not great draft picks as they are way down the first round AND their bonus slot values are low meaning we would have little wiggle room to combine money as we did this year.
Is there any combination of guys we haven't signed yet who would make you want to sacrifice your top two picks next year plus pay up to $1 million in penalties? Probably not but I wanted to ask the question as I don't recall seeing it asked anywhere before?
Sunday, July 10, 2016
1-15
You lose by a run and your 7-9 hitters go 1-15. This has been the Indians situation lately. As we head into the all-star break Juan Uribe, Yan Gomes and now Abraham Almonte are killing us. As I wrote previously Gomes looks a lot like a National League pitcher flailing away at the plate in total futility. Uribe, who is a terrible defensive player, has now become a near automatic out. Almonte stunk before he came to Cleveland last year and is stinking again. Could it be without the sterioids he is who he was before the Indians got him?
In any case, now way is playing Naquin against lefties and bringing up Urshela going to give you any worse production than we have now. Gomes is a hole we may have to live with as we don't really have any other catching options until Roberto Perez comes back and, even then, all Perez offers is walks.
I can go with one automatic out in Gomes. We just can't have 3, especially not back-to-back-to-back.
Time to make some changes.
In any case, now way is playing Naquin against lefties and bringing up Urshela going to give you any worse production than we have now. Gomes is a hole we may have to live with as we don't really have any other catching options until Roberto Perez comes back and, even then, all Perez offers is walks.
I can go with one automatic out in Gomes. We just can't have 3, especially not back-to-back-to-back.
Time to make some changes.
Tuesday, July 5, 2016
All-Star rosters
OK, since the vote went to the fans for the all-star starters it has, at times, become comical. The whole starting infield for the National League is from the Cubs. Now, the Cubs are good but really? Each player on their infield is having the best year of any player at their position in the National League? I would have to do some research before I believed that. And the Red Sox have 4 starters. Really?
Look, this is an all-star game and there are plenty of guys who get snubbed each year who are having all-star seasons. There are only a limited number of roster spots, I get that. But when that problem is exacerbated by 'homer' voting for starting players then that is where I draw the line and say we need a fix for this problem.
So, if I am a manager of the all-star team here is my solution: For every guy who doesn't deserve to be a starter I don't take a guy from that team who deserves to be on the all-star team.
If you want to fix this ballot box stuffing that is a pretty good way, I think. Hey, it's not like the manager couldn't justify it as there are plenty of players having good seasons who don't make the roster.
So, I am sorry Craig Kimbrel, you don't make it. Sorry Steven Wright, your fans screwed you from making your first all-star team.
So sorry, John Lester, we need your spot for a player who doesn't play in a ballot box stuffing city. It's Chicago. There are probably dead people voting.
Now, the rosters will change due to injuries that crop up and starting pitchers who pitch on Sunday before the all-star game. So there is a little hope, just as there is from the Final Vote players.
As far as the Indians, you get what you get. Naquin, Chisenhall and Ramirez were all deserving but their small sample size this year and their lack of any name recognition didn't give them a chance, especially when guys without any name recognition had to be chosen so every team would have at least one representative. In this day of analytics it is still hard to put guys on the all-star team who are hitting .230, no matter how many HRs and RBI they have or what their OBP is so as productive as Napoli and Santana have been, the didn't stand a chance.
There are just so many individuals who are having more well-rounded statistical years. In terms of pitching, I think the Indians have the best starting 5 in the majors right now. Unfortunately, every team has a #1 starter and most of them are better than our #2-5 (read: guys after Salazar). So, while Josh Tomlin has a great record, as an all-star manager I wouldn't want to put a pitcher on my roster who has no chance of playing and I would NEVER allow Tomlin on the field. You just don't allow guys who give up a HR every 5 innings against average major leaguers to pitch in a game with elite major leaguers. To paraphrase a comedian I heard once: think of the skill level of the average American League hitter...and then think half the hitters in the AL are worse than him. Imagine Tomlin against a lineup of the best players on each team. On paper he would likely get killed and the first game of the World Series would be in the NL champion's home park.
Maybe you make a case for Cody Allen but, frankly, there isn't much of a case. His saves have become sloppy. Carrasco has too small of a sample size, Kluber is just mediocre, on average, so far and Bauer's sample size as a flake is much greater than his sample size as a stud so his reputation probably killed him there. None of our relievers outside of Dan Otero would be deserving and we all know Otero has not pitched much or in pressure situations. A good case can be made that his easy innings help bolster his stats compared to if he had pitched in more high leverage (e.g., 8th inning setup guy) situations.
Oh well, more fodder for discussion by Cleveland fans and those who support teams not named the Red Sox or the Cubs. In the old days when it wasn't about money I think the selection to the all-star game meant more. Now these players are making more money in one season than their predecessors made in a career. With the focus being on individual salaries and winning the world series, I think all-star snubs may have less weight...which explains why the fans still get to vote for the starters.
Look, this is an all-star game and there are plenty of guys who get snubbed each year who are having all-star seasons. There are only a limited number of roster spots, I get that. But when that problem is exacerbated by 'homer' voting for starting players then that is where I draw the line and say we need a fix for this problem.
So, if I am a manager of the all-star team here is my solution: For every guy who doesn't deserve to be a starter I don't take a guy from that team who deserves to be on the all-star team.
If you want to fix this ballot box stuffing that is a pretty good way, I think. Hey, it's not like the manager couldn't justify it as there are plenty of players having good seasons who don't make the roster.
So, I am sorry Craig Kimbrel, you don't make it. Sorry Steven Wright, your fans screwed you from making your first all-star team.
So sorry, John Lester, we need your spot for a player who doesn't play in a ballot box stuffing city. It's Chicago. There are probably dead people voting.
Now, the rosters will change due to injuries that crop up and starting pitchers who pitch on Sunday before the all-star game. So there is a little hope, just as there is from the Final Vote players.
As far as the Indians, you get what you get. Naquin, Chisenhall and Ramirez were all deserving but their small sample size this year and their lack of any name recognition didn't give them a chance, especially when guys without any name recognition had to be chosen so every team would have at least one representative. In this day of analytics it is still hard to put guys on the all-star team who are hitting .230, no matter how many HRs and RBI they have or what their OBP is so as productive as Napoli and Santana have been, the didn't stand a chance.
There are just so many individuals who are having more well-rounded statistical years. In terms of pitching, I think the Indians have the best starting 5 in the majors right now. Unfortunately, every team has a #1 starter and most of them are better than our #2-5 (read: guys after Salazar). So, while Josh Tomlin has a great record, as an all-star manager I wouldn't want to put a pitcher on my roster who has no chance of playing and I would NEVER allow Tomlin on the field. You just don't allow guys who give up a HR every 5 innings against average major leaguers to pitch in a game with elite major leaguers. To paraphrase a comedian I heard once: think of the skill level of the average American League hitter...and then think half the hitters in the AL are worse than him. Imagine Tomlin against a lineup of the best players on each team. On paper he would likely get killed and the first game of the World Series would be in the NL champion's home park.
Maybe you make a case for Cody Allen but, frankly, there isn't much of a case. His saves have become sloppy. Carrasco has too small of a sample size, Kluber is just mediocre, on average, so far and Bauer's sample size as a flake is much greater than his sample size as a stud so his reputation probably killed him there. None of our relievers outside of Dan Otero would be deserving and we all know Otero has not pitched much or in pressure situations. A good case can be made that his easy innings help bolster his stats compared to if he had pitched in more high leverage (e.g., 8th inning setup guy) situations.
Oh well, more fodder for discussion by Cleveland fans and those who support teams not named the Red Sox or the Cubs. In the old days when it wasn't about money I think the selection to the all-star game meant more. Now these players are making more money in one season than their predecessors made in a career. With the focus being on individual salaries and winning the world series, I think all-star snubs may have less weight...which explains why the fans still get to vote for the starters.
Monday, July 4, 2016
Tonight's game
OK, as I watched tonight's game some things came to mind I wanted to share:
- Danny Salazar sucked. OK, that is a relative term when you are talking about Salazar. Who knows how much the rain delay threw him off? But he executed just enough pitches to be mostly successful. But he screwed up enough to leave tied 3-3.
- The Indians screwed up multiple times with runners on second and third and zero or one outs. As a matter of fact, only Lindor did ANYTHING in those ABs
- Uribe has not looked good to me all season. He is overweight, doesn't look very athletic and doesn't look like he could play any other position right now but 3B, and he doesn't even do that well at all. As a matter of fact, he looks clumsy, just like he did tonight falling all over himself grabbing that line drive. Which would be acceptable if he hit. But he isn't hitting and looked silly at times tonight. With Chamberlain, Gorzelanny and others getting bumped off the roster for not very good production, I am rooting for Uribe to be gone soon. With Francona's deep bullpen and concomitant short bench there is no room for a guy like Uribe and Francona and Antonetti should have learned from keeping Bourn and Swisher too long for their 'veteran presence'. I would bring up Urshela whose defense will only make this staff better and who should probably hit as well as Uribe is now. This would free up Ramirez to be the super utility guy and not force us to put him at 3B in the late innings.
- Gomes? Man, realistically, watching him tonight and recently, half the pitchers in the national league have as good or better a chance to get a hit than this guy. I have seen him a couple of games now and he is just pathetic and as close to an automatic out as I have seen in the last few years in the American league. I don't know if it is injury related (left shoulder issues? his knee ruining his 'base' as a hitter (supposedly happened to Mark McGwire at the end of his career)) but Gomes is just pathetic and it is killing us. Given his pitch calling last night (i.e., asking Salazar to keep throwing the changeup he was hanging) I wonder about him defensively, too.
- Almonte? Why is this guy playing at all? He was bad before he came to the Indians last year and he is bad now. Having Gomes, Uribe and Almonte at the bottom of this order just killed us tonight. We can't keep doing that as it REALLY hurt us tonight. If guys like Chamberlain and Gorzelanny can be DFA'd how can Almonte and Uribe still be with us? I mean last year we put a thirdbaseman in RF and he solidified our OF defense and he hit. By that I mean that there are plenty of ways for this team to get better, even some out-of-the-box ways like Chisenhall last year, than I still don't get why Naquin is not playing all the time. Almonte should be stashed at AAA for an emergency only.
- Bryan Shaw was just good enough to not get killed in the 8th. He is walking a tight rope every time out, it seems, but he is staying on the wire.
- Cody Allen was good enough in the 9th to save the game. My only question is would he have done it against the top of their order? I mean even Mark Lowe and his 10.44 ERA and Dustin Molleken and his 30+year old major league debut were able to get outs from the bottom of our order.
So what does it all mean? The Indians could have clearly lost this game. Did the Tigers' 9-game losing streak this season play a part in tonight's loss? I don't think so. They were on a roll coming in and had all the confidence in the world when you consider getting to Salazar and getting outs from their bad bullpen guys. Did our fans play a part in this win? Sadly, as much as I love to see the stands full, no, they didn't play a big part in this victory.
Then how did they win? It was a team effort, it was a gritty effort. They were just good enough and guys (Lindor, Napoli) stepped up to make plays. Just enough plays to make us win.
Hey, this is Cleveland. In past years we would have never won 14 in a row and if we did have a winning streak, at least in my opinion, we would have found a way to lose this game. Of all the games I have seen this year although this one wasn't pretty it showed me one thing: This Indians' team is for real. We have to tighten some things up (including hoping for a miracle with Gomes' hitting) and we still need to solidify the bullpen and get a great outfield hitter but I think we can get to the post-season and, if we add the right pieces and stay healthy and fix the glaring things we need to, I think we can win it all.
Saturday, July 2, 2016
The Replay
I know you've heard this over and over again by now. The Indians got robbed today! No way was there enough evidence to overturn the out call at the plate. It turned a tie into a 3 run lead for Toronto.
"The Replay"
Here's the thing, though. This is not the Cleveland of 3 weeks ago. The Cleveland that had a "The ____" for every heartbreak loss in every sport.
Yes, today's game could have and probably should have gone a different direction, maybe ending in the Indians' 15th win in a row.
But it didn't.
And you know, it just doesn't seem as devastating. It doesn't seem like luck is against us. As a matter of fact, it seems almost incidental. I wasn't as upset as I thought I would be, as a would have been a month ago. I guess that's what the Cavs and the winning streak did to me.
We'll get them tomorrow and, if not, we'll get them the day after that. No bad replay decision is going to change the course of this season.
p.s. If MLB does not change the scoring decision that cost our rookie left hander his 0.00 ERA they have doubled the idiocy of the replay decision.
"The Replay"
Here's the thing, though. This is not the Cleveland of 3 weeks ago. The Cleveland that had a "The ____" for every heartbreak loss in every sport.
Yes, today's game could have and probably should have gone a different direction, maybe ending in the Indians' 15th win in a row.
But it didn't.
And you know, it just doesn't seem as devastating. It doesn't seem like luck is against us. As a matter of fact, it seems almost incidental. I wasn't as upset as I thought I would be, as a would have been a month ago. I guess that's what the Cavs and the winning streak did to me.
We'll get them tomorrow and, if not, we'll get them the day after that. No bad replay decision is going to change the course of this season.
p.s. If MLB does not change the scoring decision that cost our rookie left hander his 0.00 ERA they have doubled the idiocy of the replay decision.
McAllister today. Morimando called up
McAllister will get the start today that belonged to Trevor Bauer. They also called up Shawn Morimando and designated Michael Martinez for assignment.
Morimando was on the 40 man roster meaning they had already used his option for this year when they sent him down to the minors after spring training.
My guess is today that they try to get 3 innings out of McAllister. Not sure if they plan to do a bullpen day or if they plan to let Morimando pitch after Toronto has stacked its lineup with left handed hitters to face the righty McAllister. Morimando may just be there if they need a bunch of mopup innings if we get too far behind. If it was me I would try for McAllister for 3, Morimando for 4 and then find two innings out of the rest of the bullpen...assuming we don't go 19 again today!
Morimando was on the 40 man roster meaning they had already used his option for this year when they sent him down to the minors after spring training.
My guess is today that they try to get 3 innings out of McAllister. Not sure if they plan to do a bullpen day or if they plan to let Morimando pitch after Toronto has stacked its lineup with left handed hitters to face the righty McAllister. Morimando may just be there if they need a bunch of mopup innings if we get too far behind. If it was me I would try for McAllister for 3, Morimando for 4 and then find two innings out of the rest of the bullpen...assuming we don't go 19 again today!
Friday, July 1, 2016
Nolan Jones has signed. What about the rest of the unsigned draftees?
So we can't officially close the book on the 2016 Cleveland Indians amateur draft just yet. We have two weeks to go until the official deadline to sign players. However, today's signing of Nolan Jones for a reported $2.25 million basically, for all practical purposes, closes the book on this year's draft.
I have the Indians, with their picks in the first 10 rounds being over by $10,000 from the maximum they can spend and not lose their first round pick next year. Obviously (or I am hoping that it is obvious) my numbers are off. Other sources, including today's signing, have us at anywhere from $10,000 over our budget to about $48,000 under our budget, not counting if we sign Calica.
Also, remember that the bonuses that have been reported are estimates. If Jones signed for $2.49 million and my math is correct, we are right at our pool maximum plus the 4.99% overage from that we are allowed before we lost that draft pick.
Bottom line either way: There is no money left to throw at draft picks beyond round 10. So guys are either going to have to sign for $100,000 or they are going (or going back) to college. Not unexpected as the Indians and other teams pick contingency guys just in case their top draft picks don't sign. I think Baird was that for Jones and, with Jones signing, there is no money left for Baird. Every once in a while a HS guy (like maybe Alvarez or Studstill) will sign for $100,000 as they still get their college paid for and want to start their pro career. However, the most highly rated guys we drafted after the 10th round will, now, likely not sign as there isn't any money left to sign them. As I said previously, I am pretty sure if they stay healthy and productive a lot of these guys will get at least $100,000 in signing bonus in 3 years. Not guaranteed, for sure, as injuries and lack of production will rob some of these kids of their chance to play pro ball, but for the good ones, it is very likely that they will get a higher bonus offer in 3 years.
Just for grins, to help put this draft in perspective, I did an analysis. Assuming no one else signs, here is how this draft plays out if we put the guys in order of their Baseball America ranking next to the draft slots the Indians had. Now, this is NOT where these guys were drafted, necessarily, it is just a construct I am using to rate this draft if we had drafted these guys in order of talent and if those guys had been there where the appropriate pick came around.
14th selection: 19th best player (Jones)
55th selection: 30th best player (Benson)
72nd selection: 62nd best player (Capel)
92nd selection: 65th best player (Ice)
122nd selection: 184th best player (Beiber)
152nd selection: 204th best player (Civale)
182nd selection: 235th best player (Calica)
212th selection: 236th best player (Clemmer)
242nd selection: 254th best player (Cantu)
272nd selection: 294th best player (Tinsley
302nd selection: Unranked (Taylor)
Assuming none of the top prospects that we drafted in rounds 11-40 sign, this is still a good, solid draft and well played by the Indians. If you look the top 4 draft slots the Indians had and the top 4 ranked players they drafted, they essentially got a better player than their slot by an average of 14 slots per player drafted. In English, that means that, on paper, it looks like each of their top 4 ranked players should have been drafted 14 spots before the Indians got to pick them. By drafting Benson first and waiting to draft Capel until the 5th round and knowing Capel would sign for slot, the Indians did better, on paper, overall in the first 10 rounds in this draft compared to any draft they have had in recent years.
And, if we assume Cantu and Taylor are better prospects than their pre-draft rankings (and I think they will be) and Lantrip gives us something (LOOGY?), even without any of our other draft picks this becomes a really good draft. Not a great draft but a really good one and, if I had to grade it, their entire draft would be between a B+ and an A-. And that doesn't count the possibility of getting some production from Plesac, Nelson or any of our other, later, college or JUCO guys. When you consider how good we have been at finding the Ben Hellers, Shawn Armstrongs, etc. in the later rounds, this draft may have a little more than those top 11 picks. It is said that if you can get 3-4 guys out of draft who make some contribution in the majors you have had a successful draft. I think this draft could have 10 guys play at some point in the majors. No guarantees but there is a decent change they get more than the average number of major leaguers out of this draft, impressive considering where they drafted!
So, congratulations to the Indians and let's hope (and I am pretty sure we can be sure that) the Indians did their calculations correctly and we don't lose a pick next year. I am about 99.5% sure we won't lose a pick (i.e., we didn't exceed 4.99% over our draft pool allotment) so if that is true, great work by the Indians.
I have the Indians, with their picks in the first 10 rounds being over by $10,000 from the maximum they can spend and not lose their first round pick next year. Obviously (or I am hoping that it is obvious) my numbers are off. Other sources, including today's signing, have us at anywhere from $10,000 over our budget to about $48,000 under our budget, not counting if we sign Calica.
Also, remember that the bonuses that have been reported are estimates. If Jones signed for $2.49 million and my math is correct, we are right at our pool maximum plus the 4.99% overage from that we are allowed before we lost that draft pick.
Bottom line either way: There is no money left to throw at draft picks beyond round 10. So guys are either going to have to sign for $100,000 or they are going (or going back) to college. Not unexpected as the Indians and other teams pick contingency guys just in case their top draft picks don't sign. I think Baird was that for Jones and, with Jones signing, there is no money left for Baird. Every once in a while a HS guy (like maybe Alvarez or Studstill) will sign for $100,000 as they still get their college paid for and want to start their pro career. However, the most highly rated guys we drafted after the 10th round will, now, likely not sign as there isn't any money left to sign them. As I said previously, I am pretty sure if they stay healthy and productive a lot of these guys will get at least $100,000 in signing bonus in 3 years. Not guaranteed, for sure, as injuries and lack of production will rob some of these kids of their chance to play pro ball, but for the good ones, it is very likely that they will get a higher bonus offer in 3 years.
Just for grins, to help put this draft in perspective, I did an analysis. Assuming no one else signs, here is how this draft plays out if we put the guys in order of their Baseball America ranking next to the draft slots the Indians had. Now, this is NOT where these guys were drafted, necessarily, it is just a construct I am using to rate this draft if we had drafted these guys in order of talent and if those guys had been there where the appropriate pick came around.
14th selection: 19th best player (Jones)
55th selection: 30th best player (Benson)
72nd selection: 62nd best player (Capel)
92nd selection: 65th best player (Ice)
122nd selection: 184th best player (Beiber)
152nd selection: 204th best player (Civale)
182nd selection: 235th best player (Calica)
212th selection: 236th best player (Clemmer)
242nd selection: 254th best player (Cantu)
272nd selection: 294th best player (Tinsley
302nd selection: Unranked (Taylor)
Assuming none of the top prospects that we drafted in rounds 11-40 sign, this is still a good, solid draft and well played by the Indians. If you look the top 4 draft slots the Indians had and the top 4 ranked players they drafted, they essentially got a better player than their slot by an average of 14 slots per player drafted. In English, that means that, on paper, it looks like each of their top 4 ranked players should have been drafted 14 spots before the Indians got to pick them. By drafting Benson first and waiting to draft Capel until the 5th round and knowing Capel would sign for slot, the Indians did better, on paper, overall in the first 10 rounds in this draft compared to any draft they have had in recent years.
And, if we assume Cantu and Taylor are better prospects than their pre-draft rankings (and I think they will be) and Lantrip gives us something (LOOGY?), even without any of our other draft picks this becomes a really good draft. Not a great draft but a really good one and, if I had to grade it, their entire draft would be between a B+ and an A-. And that doesn't count the possibility of getting some production from Plesac, Nelson or any of our other, later, college or JUCO guys. When you consider how good we have been at finding the Ben Hellers, Shawn Armstrongs, etc. in the later rounds, this draft may have a little more than those top 11 picks. It is said that if you can get 3-4 guys out of draft who make some contribution in the majors you have had a successful draft. I think this draft could have 10 guys play at some point in the majors. No guarantees but there is a decent change they get more than the average number of major leaguers out of this draft, impressive considering where they drafted!
So, congratulations to the Indians and let's hope (and I am pretty sure we can be sure that) the Indians did their calculations correctly and we don't lose a pick next year. I am about 99.5% sure we won't lose a pick (i.e., we didn't exceed 4.99% over our draft pool allotment) so if that is true, great work by the Indians.
Team Compelling
Yeah, I know Team Streak is in vogue but, after today, Team Compelling seems to fit, too.
Yes, I know, it took two innings to score off position players-turned-pitchers. We had numerous other almost 100% certainty scoring situations and blew them. And to get this win we had to burn Saturday's starter, Trevor Bauer.
But we did the job, especially in the bullpen. Bauer was outstanding pitching on 3 days rest. It turned out about perfect, too, as 80 pitches has to be close to some kind of unwritten limit (I was thinking 75, myself) for pitches on 3 days rest. Nineteen innings, one earned run.
We now have a new franchise record for most games won in a row and we are back at it tomorrow as Team Streak goes at it again.
Some drama is coming up about that, too. Who do we start? Looking at the Columbus rotation the guy whose turn it is tomorrow is Adam Plutko. It would be simpler if it was Clevinger's turn but his turn is on Sunday. Or maybe bring up TJ House but he is being conditioned as a reliever and just pitched in that role. Or Cody Anderson, but he is on the DL.
So, do you start Kluber on short rest and then start Clevinger on Sunday? Or do you bring up Plutko, who would have to be added to the 40 man roster and keep Kluber on normal rest? Not like this would be an upset as Pluko certainly would have been protected this winter, anyway. He is settling in to AAA so it is not like he would be overmatched in the majors, either.
For me, I DFA Colin Cowgill and add Plutko to the 40 man roster and start Plutko tomorrow. I think Plutko feeds off Team Streak's momentum and Team Compelling lifts this kid up to this "A" game. The way we have been going, who knows, this kid could throw a no-hitter through 6 innings tomorrow.
In any case, it will be a compelling story tomorrow as Team Compelling (err Streak) will be forced to do something out of the ordinary to extend "The Streak" tomorrow! As the food critique on the movie Ratatouille said "Surprise me!". We will be watching this compelling story as it unfolds tomorrow.
Yes, I know, it took two innings to score off position players-turned-pitchers. We had numerous other almost 100% certainty scoring situations and blew them. And to get this win we had to burn Saturday's starter, Trevor Bauer.
But we did the job, especially in the bullpen. Bauer was outstanding pitching on 3 days rest. It turned out about perfect, too, as 80 pitches has to be close to some kind of unwritten limit (I was thinking 75, myself) for pitches on 3 days rest. Nineteen innings, one earned run.
We now have a new franchise record for most games won in a row and we are back at it tomorrow as Team Streak goes at it again.
Some drama is coming up about that, too. Who do we start? Looking at the Columbus rotation the guy whose turn it is tomorrow is Adam Plutko. It would be simpler if it was Clevinger's turn but his turn is on Sunday. Or maybe bring up TJ House but he is being conditioned as a reliever and just pitched in that role. Or Cody Anderson, but he is on the DL.
So, do you start Kluber on short rest and then start Clevinger on Sunday? Or do you bring up Plutko, who would have to be added to the 40 man roster and keep Kluber on normal rest? Not like this would be an upset as Pluko certainly would have been protected this winter, anyway. He is settling in to AAA so it is not like he would be overmatched in the majors, either.
For me, I DFA Colin Cowgill and add Plutko to the 40 man roster and start Plutko tomorrow. I think Plutko feeds off Team Streak's momentum and Team Compelling lifts this kid up to this "A" game. The way we have been going, who knows, this kid could throw a no-hitter through 6 innings tomorrow.
In any case, it will be a compelling story tomorrow as Team Compelling (err Streak) will be forced to do something out of the ordinary to extend "The Streak" tomorrow! As the food critique on the movie Ratatouille said "Surprise me!". We will be watching this compelling story as it unfolds tomorrow.
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