Friday, July 29, 2016

Prospect perspective - July 27th

OK, with everyone talking about trading prospects away to compete this year, we should probably take a look at the prospects we still have and see how they are progressing.  I have used my pre-season ranking and, with that, determined if the prospect is performing at or above or below their expected level.   Prospects performing above expected levels are good trade chips.   Most likely their "breakthrough season" won't be sustainable.  Prospects performing under expectations should not be be traded as they won't be valued as much as they should be.   Prospects performing at expected levels would have to be overvalued by our trade partner for me to want to trade them.   For example, I would trade Clint Frazier instead of Bradley Zimmer.   I think Zimmer will have a better career and is underperforming.  

1. Bradley Zimmer - Underperforming - Not worth trading at his current value
2. Clint Frazier - Overperforming - Would be a good trade chip right now
3. Mike Papi - Way underperforming.   Don't trade, especially not as a throw-in to a large deal
4. Mike Clevinger - Performing at expectations.  Only trade if he is key prospect traded for a big name.
5. Tyler Naquin - Overperforming.  Would be a GREAT trade chip now if we got a couple of outfielders back.
6. Brady Aiken - Underperforming.  Don't trade.
7. Justus Sheffield - Performing at expectations -low enough in the minors to be traded as the key piece in a big trade for a high value major leaguer
8. Tristen McKenzie - Performing at expectations - low enough in the minors to be traded as key piece
9. Bobby Bradley - At expected level - key piece or one of two below this slot for a key ML starting player
10. Adam Plutko - At expectations - could be a secondary piece
11. Juan Hillman - At expectations - keep him, too low in the minors to have true value returned for him.
12. Rob Kaminsky - Below expectations - I would actually trade him as a throw-in with one of the above for a big piece.
13. Shawn Armstrong - At expectations - see Kaminsky
14. Mitch Brown - Below expectations, has no trade value right now
15, Nellie Rodriguez - At expectations - only trade if he is overvalued by our trade partner
16. Erik Gonzalez - Above expectations - our most tradeable piece.
17. Francisco Mejia - Above expectations - interestingly they are milking his hit streak.   I know he has an injury but it is like they are trying to keep the hitstreak going to increase his value.  I would trade him now if he is as overvalued by our competitors as I think he would be.   A Lucroy for Gonzalez/Mejia trade would work for me. 
18. Shawn Morimando - Overperforming.   I would keep him unless we get better value for him than I think we can
19. Dylan Baker - Injured, no trade value
20. Mark Mathias - At expected levels - keep, too low in minors to have realized trade value
21. Eric Stamets - underperforming - use as throw-in if necessary
22. Ryan Merritt - at expected levels - little trade value at this point
23. Yandy Diaz - Way overperforming - trade if he is the centerpiece or along with Gonzalez OR Mejia for a quality ML starting player
24. Yu-Cheng Chang - Above expected level - trade as centerpiece or one of two guys like Diaz
25. Giovanni Soto - Released
26. Gabriel Mejia - Below expectations - No trade value
27. Luke Wakamatsu - Injured, no trade value
28. Tyler Krieger - At expected levels, no trade value because is too low in the minors
29. Dace Kime - Way below expectations - Trade him for a situational lefty if you can get one for him
30. Luigi Rodriguez - At expected levels - no trade value
31. Luis Lugo - At expected level
32, Sean Brady - At expected level
33. Justin Garza - Injured
34. Willi Castro - At expected level
35. Greg Allen - At expected level - little trade value yet
36. Dorsyss Paulino - Injured
37. Ka'i Tom - Injured
38. Anthony Santander - Above expectations - trade him as 3rd prospect in a big trade
39. James Ramsey - Gone
40. Jesus Aguilar - Below expectations; use as a throw-in for a trade with a second division team who wants to give him a shot and hope he performs.

I would not trade anyone below this level, even as a throw-in, as they have little trade value.

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