Saturday, June 11, 2016

2016 Indians Draft - Day 3 Analysis

OK, here we are at the end of Day 3.   Let's look at some of the near certainties of rounds 11-40.

1. Any guy signed here has to be signed for $100,000 or less.   If they are signed for over 100k that difference has to be applied to our draft budget.  

2. A flyer is someone who has dropped in the draft.   His talent slot is much greater than the slot he was drafted in.   Teams draft flyers in these rounds.

3. Teams draft a lot of organizational players in these rounds.  These are usually college seniors or college juniors who don't want to finish their college careers.

Before we get into the detail I wanted to cut to the chase and give you my summary of our 3rd day draft:  This looks similar to previous years.   I think the way the first two days set up if Nolan Jones or Connor Capel doesn't sign, maybe we will have a little money to sign some of the flyers we drafted in rounds 11-40.   If our first 11 picks sign, I doubt any of the talented players (guys rated in the top 200 by Baseball America) from the last 30 rounds sign with the Indians.   So I hold by my previous analysis: We set up this draft to have extra money to sign Jones, Capel and maybe, to a lesser extent, Cantu.  I think Benson will sign for below slot but I don't think if we sign Jones to an overslot bonus that we will have enough money to sign Capel, let alone Capel and any of the flyers we drafted in rounds 11-40.    If we don't sign Jones, look for us to make serious runs at some of the better prospects we drafted in these later rounds.   The details follow below.

Normally, if you see a flyer drafted in these rounds it is for two connected reasons:

1. The team knows it is likely to have an excess of their draft budget left after the first 10 rounds


2. The team is uncertain if it can sign a guy from the first 10 rounds who will want more than their draft slot.

To be more clear, many of these flyers are drafted just in case this single player (or a couple of players) don't sign.   They then take this excess money (only the money ABOVE what is slotted for that spot in the draft, not the amount allotted for that slot) and spread it around to flyers in these later rounds.   Most of these flyers go unsigned as teams find a way to spend all of their draft budget on top 10 round guys.   Sometimes, though, a flyer or two gets signed as teams have extra money and/or the flyer drops his draft demands.   Luke Wakamatsu from last year's draft was a flyer who signed.  Nick Madrigal from last year's draft was a flyer who did not sign.

Now that we have that in place, let's take a look at rounds 11-40. 

Re-drafts - The Indians drafted a couple of flyers they had draft, as flyers, out of high school.   Wil Crowe and Andrew Calica were projected to go higher in the draft.

Catchers -  The Indians drafted 3 high school catchers in these rounds (Zack Smith, Blake Sabol and Mike Amditis) all flyers.   Likely none of them will sign and I think they were drafted as backups in case Ice and Tinsley from rounds 3 and 7 do not sign.

Other flyers - Besides Crowe, some other flyers the Indians drafted include Ben Baird, Austin Shenton, Andrew Baker.   All these are HS players and none of them have a high likelihood of signing.  However, note that Baird is a SS, the position that Nolan Jones, a difficult sign for the Indians, plays.   I think Baird is our backup if Jones doesn't sign.

High School Players unlikely to sign - Look, as a HS player you have to have confidence that you can get more than $100,000 after being in college for 1-3 years.  I have never understood why the Indians draft these guys as they rarely sign them and, when they do, the kids rarely end up as even long-term minor leaguers in our system.  Some of the lowly rated HS players they drafted this year include: Samad Taylor, Raymond Burgos, Mason Studstill, Nelson Alvarez, Spencer Steer,  Armani Smith, Pedro Alfonseca and Danny Sinatro.  Once in a while they sign one of these guys to an above slot bonus (Shawn Morimando comes to mind) and they blossom into a really good prospect.  So, if they sign one or more of these guys maybe there is some hope. 

Junior College Players - Dakody Clemmer is the standout here.   The Indians have had good luck signing junior college guys who are OK draft prospects (Ryan Perez last year).  I think they sign one of these guys.

College pitchers - It is in these rounds that the Indians have become good at finding middle reliever prospects like Shawn Armstrong, Ben Heller, Austin Adams, etc.   When you think of this year's draftees the guys who seem to fit this profile include Zach Plesac, Ben Krauth, Mike Letkewicz, Tanner Tully, Ryder Ryan, Chris Farish and Jacob DeVries (an Air Force pitcher).  Many times these guys don't even sign, returning to college for another year.  Sometimes they do sign.  If you see one of these guys sign, for me, they instantly become sleeper prospects to keep an eye on down the road.

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