Draft SIgning Recap

OK, let's be honest.  This draft was really about Francisco Lindor and Dillon Howard. 

Yeah, a lot of forumites from around the many blog sites for the Indians were all adither about Dillon Peters, (who, if he is truly 5'9", 200 pounds, could easily earn the nickname "round mound of the mound") and Stephen Tarpley and were giddy at the bloated bonus that Eric Haase got and turned away when it was mentioned by various people that maybe Shawn Morimando and Shawn Armstrong got about 4 times the bonus they should have.  Hey, maybe they did a study and found that guys named Shawn drafted in the 18th and 19th rounds did better, historically, than the average 18th or 19th rounder.  Who knows, because it sure wasn't based on talent, at least if you believe the prospect rankings.

Turns out Tarpley is going to USC and Peters to Texas.

But this draft was really about Lindor and Howard.  We signed both of them although it cost us over  $1.5 million over slot to do it.  Add to that Haase's ($650,000), Armstrong's ($325,000) and Morimando's ($340,000) bonuses and for those 5 guys we paid easily $2.3 million over slot, combined, to sign them and, with the latter 3, problably almost $1 million more than they are worth, based on talent rankings. 

This draft was never set up to sign a bunch of stud prospects on August 15th.  They didn't really draft any after Howard.  Over-bonusing (new word to go along with overdrafting) Haase, Morimando, Armstrong, Merritt, McPhee and others doesn't make up for failing to draft quality prospects later in the draft and failing to sign the one, Peters, who you did draft.  Overdrafting Lowery, Sisco and Roberts just so you can pay them slot doesn't help, either. 

Let's compare my shadow draft results (the guys in bold signed and I have included their bonuses and their BA ranking):

1. Matt Barnes, RHP, Connecticutt – (13) $1.5 million
2. Daniel Norris, LHP, Tennessee HS (16) $2 million
3. B.A. Vollmuth, 3B/SS Southern Mississippi (63) $304,000

4. Noe Ramirez, RHP, Cal State Fullerton (93) $625,000
5. Matt Price, RH Closer, Georgia Tech (141) – Did not sign
6. Derek Fisher, OF, PA HS (66) – Did not sign
7. Cody Kukuk, LHP, Kansas HS (154) $800,000

8. Kyle Winkler, RHP, Texas (43) $240,000
9. Dusty Robinson, OF, Fresno State (115) $100,000
10. Nick Rickles, C, Stetson (194) $60,000

11. Ben Alsup, RHP, LSU $1,000
12. Mike McGee, OF, Florida State, $1,000
13. Zach McPhee, 2B, Arizona State $150,000
14. Chad Zurcher, 2B, Memphis $50,000
15. Jeff Schaus, OF, LSU
16. Carlos Rodon, LHP, NC HS (198) – Did not sign
17. Matt Stites, RHP, Missouri $3000
18. Andrew Triggs, RHP, USC

19. Pete Lavin, OF, San Francisco 20. Dillon Peters, LHP, IN HS (104)

16 of the top 20 signed from my shadow draft, 8 of the top 10 including Daniel Norris who was rated higher than Dillon Howard and signed for close to the same amount.   I also got highly rated Cody Kukuk and Kyle Winkler who was a first round option until he got hurt late in the year. 

In terms of bonuses for the top 20 rounds I signed my 16 guys for $5.8 million.  The Indians signed theirs for $7.6 million.

So, I have already done better on this draft money-wise.  I would say I am better talent-wise right now, although only slightly but we can wait for 3 years on that one.

This draft may pan out but it won't be because of anyone drafted after the 2nd round.  John Mirabelli once said if you get two good ML players and a couple of bit players out of a draft you have done well.  Well, in this draft, the UPSIDE is 2 good ML players, one solid ML player and a couple of bit players.  That's the UPSIDE, right after the draft, when things generally look the rosiest.

OVERALL RATING: This is, at best, a slightly above average draft.  If either Howard or Lindor fail, it is a below average draft.  If they both fail this draft has so little talent after the second round it will instantly become like 2001.  Go back and look at that draft and see how that turned out.  As a matter of fact, on paper, this draft is IDENTICAL to 2001.  Let's hope it turns out better 10 years later.  It sure as hell was done the same way.  They say insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result.  Let's hope 'they' are wrong because a lot of the 2009 and 2010 draft walked out the door for the underperforming Jimenez and the rest of the 2009 and 2010 draft classes, outside of Kipnis and Wolters, are looking anywhere from pretty bad to mediocre/bit prospect-like, at least at the moment!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!