The Loss of a Draft pick for signing Encarnacion

In the afterglow of the signing of Edwin Encarnacion we should consider the impact of the Indians losing their first round pick from the 2017 draft.

First, realize that their Indians' first round pick (#27) was one of the lowest first round picks the Indians have had in its history, with only Danny Peoples (1996), Tim Drew (1997) and Lonnie Chisenhall (2008) being lower (NOTE: Corey Smith in 2000 was drafted in the 26th slot).   But the Indians, being a small market club, value their first round picks.  In fact, if I read the drafts correctly, this will only be the 3rd draft in the history of the ML draft in which the Indians do not have a pick before the second round of the draft (the other two being in 1987 and 1999)!

The are two things that really bother Indians' draftniks (of which I am one) about the loss of this pick:

1. As the Indians will not have a first round pick, their first selection will roughly be around #65, the second lowest first picks in Indians' history.  The only time the Indians ever picked lower was in 1999 when, against predominant opinion and, to the laughter of most of baseball, selected Wil Hartley at #74.   This is sometimes what happens when a team is reaching for the brass ring in a year they don't have a high pick.   That being said, in 1987 they took a flyer on Albert Belle (at #47) who was clearly talented but had attitude problems at LSU that hurt his draft status.   No matter how it worked out, this was a gamble, again something desperate teams might do when they don't have a first round pick.

2. The way the collective bargaining agreement CURRENTLY reads, the Indians will have a very small bonus pool with which to work.  Why?  Because the way bonus slotting works, the higher the draft pick the more the slot is worth.   Why does that matter?  Well, teams with very high draft picks generally have very big bonus pools.  In the past those teams, including the Indians, have been able to save a little money on their first round picks that they were able to spread around to picks after the first round, maybe being able to sign HS players away from college commitments by giving them more money than other ML teams were willing to give them.  Right now the Indians can't do that and really, in the 2017 draft, basically have two possible strategies; (a) draft a bunch of guys at slot value, meaning the depth of their draft could be good but the star power not good or (b) draft a bunch of college seniors in the first 10 rounds and save most of their bonus pool for 1 or 2 guys who drop out of the first round due to bonus demands that are perceived by the industry as being too high for whatever reason.   Either of these paths are generally seen by draftniks as possible disaster scenarios for the Indians' acquisition of talent to keep their prospect pipeline flowing along.

Now, I don't know what the Indians are thinking about this but, for me, losing a pick so low in the first round is not the end of the world for a few reasons:

1. The slot amount for that pick is so low there really isn't a lot of slack in that pick to save money.

2. Since we only got a competitive balance pick at the end of round 2 instead of last year when we got that pick at the end of round 1, there is a much lower possibility that there will be any impact players left who we can go over slot with meaning we are more likely to use scenario (a) above.   If we do that we will have money to spare compared to last year's draft and will have to find impact talent in a different way, which brings me to...

3. The Indians are normally very frugal spenders in the international free agent market.  They have not paid millions of dollars to the top international amateur free agents nor have they signed professional free agents from Asia or even Cuba due to high price tags.   Instead, they have spread their money around hoping to out-scout the other teams to get more prospects for less money per prospect.  This philosophy has worked to some extent as the Indians have obtained prospects like Danny Salazar going this route.  In 2017, if the Indians take excess scouting dollars and excess bonus dollars they won't have to use to scout a bunch of and pay a first round pick, they will have the ability, and should use it, to not take this volume-over-quality approach and, rather, spend most of their money on a few top international free agents.   They also have 6 months to do the leg work in places like the Dominican Republic and in the professional and amateur leagues in Asia to identify a couple of guys who they want to treat like first round picks in this draft.  If you see the Indians trade guys for international pool spending dollars it will be a good indicator they are going that way.   Even without, that, however, they still should be able to get some star quality prospects if they just sign a few high value prospects rather than a number of lower value prospects.

So, if the Indians take the international approach I suggested above, it is very possible that the 2017 draft plus international signing period combined could yield a very strong influx of talent into the organizationn.    

Elvis having a blue Christmas. Should we add him?

Noticed that former Indians' prospect Elvis Araujo has been DFA'd.   If he gets to us (doubtful, but possible) should we claim him and jettison someone else off of our full 40-man?  Not saying we should but it is worth some thought, at least. 

I would love to have him put it all together as part of a championship team in the organization he started with.   Not a big deal but it would be a nice Cinderella story.

Encarnacion, check!

English is a funny language as words and phrases can have multiple meanings. Take the title of this post.

On one hand it could mean that, given his new contract, we will be expecting Encarnacion to pick up the check when he and his teammates go to dinner as he is the highest paid member of the Indians.

On the other hand it could mean that the Indians have just checked off a major box in their off-season planning.  The have the power hitting first baseman/DH they needed.

Let's focus on the latter meaning.   So the Indians have Encarnacion.   What's left to do?

First, they need two relievers.   Jeff Manship did his job here, and then some.   But what we need is an upgrade over him.   I have said repeatedly that I won't believe until the 2017 regular season is over that the hangover from the massive use of Allen, Shaw and Miller in 2016 won't, at some point this season, come back to bite the Indians.  They need one more 7th/8th inning guy who you aren't afraid to put into a tight playoff situation next year. 

Second, they need to identify a second lefty.   They have done a great job stockpiling guys who throw with their left arms..  Whether any of them can pitch in the majors is still to be seen.  We need a couple more of those guys to come in.   Clearly with Cecil and  Rzepchinski (sp?) got this off-season we will be shopping in the bargain section of the store to find one. 

Finally, we need some more starting depth.   The Indians have been great about signing major league starters on the mend from injuries and rehabbing them.  However, we haven't gotten any production from those guys.  We need to find a couple of decent inning eaters and stash them at AAA.   It would be nice to have 4 solid starters at AAA (Merritt and Plutko will be there) with all them having the ability to relieve, if necessary.  I might consider tandem starting some of those guys just so that they get used to coming out of the bullpen, if necessary, when the Indians need them or in the playoffs when we only need 4 starters.

It would be nice to make a trade for another hitter but we can wait until July for that if we can make an opportunistic move then.

p.s., I feel bad for Mike Napoli.  He provided the spark that helped push us over the top last year.   Thanks, Mike.   Good luck this year. 

How our possibilites are looking

Relief Pitching

I lead with this one because if I am sure of one thing with next year's Indians is that they need a 4th guy because one or more of Miller, Allen or Shaw are going to break down.   So we need a lefty and a righty setup guy.

Daniel Hudson is going to sign with the Pirates for $11 million over 2 years.   Brett Cecil signed a $30 million contract for 4 years with the Cardinals.  

The price of relief pitching is out of this world. 

Look, we need another experienced setup man who might be able to close, if necessary.   That guy was Daniel Hudson who, truth be told, may turn out to be a bargain for the Pirates.    A guy with an ERA north of 5 last year?  Yeah, but if you are betting on a bounce back year, he is a good guy to bet on.

Still, that is a lot of cash.  So we look at the bargain basement and here is what I see: 44 relief pitchers, a lot with major league experience.   Lopez, Ohlendorf, Feliz, Romo, Wood, Hunter, Casilla, Logan, Maness and wildcards like Latos, Papelbon and Blanton.   There are lots of options out there.   The Indians have been great about picking which guys will be good (e.g., Manship, who is still available BTW).  So, if we shop in the basement we might just luck out again.

First base/third base/outfield

There are lots of ways this can be sliced  IF we have a healthy Brantley. 

1. Re-sign Napoli
2. If Brantley comes back, sign an RH hitting outfielder and move Chisenhall to 1B/DH (he can still platoon with Guyer, just that Guyer DHs and Santana plays first against lefties)
3. Get a thirdbaseman (Puoiffe or a trade), move Ramirez to second, Santana to 1B and Kipnis to DH.
4. Sign a catcher who can hit but doesn't catch well any more and let him DH with Santana at 1B full-time AND be our third, emergency catcher. 
5. Pull off a big time trade (like Votto from the Reds) with a team trying to dump a contract. 
6. Sign a big name free agent first baseman, DH or outfielder 

While I would love to have Bautista, Trumbo or Encarnacion on this team I just don't like the dollars and years and the loss of the draft pick that would bring.  So I eliminate 6. right away.  5. is problematic for me, as well, although there is probably a way to get a one-year rental and if they get an OFer, Naquin is expendable and, so, a good trade chip.   Wouldn't Votto look nice in this lineup, though!  I would be willing to give the prospects I would need to get Votto IF the Reds could throw in some relief pitching at no additional, or minimal, charge.  Blake Wood, anyone?  I guess Cingrani is out of the question, right?

As we are rapidly approaching the end of the year there are still a lot of different ways to make this team better and lots of guys out there who could potentially do that.   Bargain FAs available in January...just the way the Indians like it. 

Rule 5 Results

Well, the Rule 5 results are in.   My overall impression of this draft this year is that I think more talented players than usual were drafted.  Will any of those players stick in the majors next year?  Who knows but I think it is likely than more of them than average in the Rule 5 draft will stick.  One thing for sure, the top 3 guys selected, all of whom are now with the Padres, have a decent chance to stick in the majors as the Padres entered the draft with only 33 players on their major league roster.  To me, along with their record this year, means that they don't have any major league ready prospects and are likely to have a bad, bad team next year, meaning lots of opportunities for minor leaguers like the three they got today to play in the majors next year.  But let's talk about our team and what went on with them today.

The Indians lost more players (5) than they obtained (1) and didn't even select a player in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft (very few of those guys ever even make the majors).   Let's talk about the players they did draft and have drafted.

The Indians obtained:

Hoby Milner, LHP

Opinion:  The Indians are looking every place they can find for that lefty reliever.  Milner was not among the top prospects for the Phillies but he did, this past year, convert to being a reliever with OK results.  He was a middle reliever in college and the track record for college middle relievers making the majors is not good.   The Indians must see something in him as, because Milner was selected in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft, he either has to stay on their roster most of the season next year or he has to be offered back to the Phillies.  Time will tell if he is a legitimate LOOGY candidate or not.  Looking at his numbers compared to Kyle Crockett's I don't understand this pick but I can tell you that a number of head scratchers from the Rule 5 draft in the past have turned into good major league players.   That's why you have scouts!

The Indians lost:

Anthony Santander, OF

Opinion: Santander was my 31st best Indians prospect.  He was 30th on MLB's list.   So he is a prospect of SOME note.  The good news is that Santander has to be kept on the Orioles ACTIVE 25-man roster almost all of next season as he was taken by the Orioles in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft.  However, the bad news there is that he apparently has an injured shoulder meaning he may miss all or part of next season.   The Orioles can stash him on their 60-day DL and, when he is ready to come off, can send him on an extended rehab assignment.   To put this in simple English, if the Orioles play their cards right Santander can remain with them next season because he would spend so much time on the DL and in rehab that he might not even have to play in the majors although he would STILL have to spend 2018 in the majors with the Phillies.  Given his injury and his slow development path, he would likely not be trade bait and might not have helped the Indians until at least 2019, assuming he misses most of this season.  If the Phillies follow the path above, it is likely he won't help the Phillies in the majors until 2020.

Trevor Frank, RHP

In the mold of JP Feiereisn, Ben Heller, Shawn Armstrong and Austin Adams, Frank is one of those college pitchers who the Indians immediately made a reliever.   When healthy, he has thrived.  He is 25 years old and still in A ball.  However, as a reliever, he could still thrive.  Frank is the kind of guy you would expect to lose in the major league portion of the Rule 5 with a chance to get him back if he doesn't still on a major league roster next spring.  Unfortunately, the Indians thought so little of Frank that they didn't even protect him on their 30-player AAA reserve list.  In simple English most teams have two types of prospects: those who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft (roughly 30% of all their prospects) and those who are not yet eligible for the Rule 5 draft (roughly 70% of their prospects).  The prospects they put on the AAA reserve list are generally only prospects who would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft meaning that the Indians didn't consider Frank among their top 60 prospects, give or take a few.  As I didn't have him ranked in my top 52, I agree.  So he is a depth loss who might still make it but is not, at this point, a huge loss.  Still, since he was taken in the minor league portion of the draft, he is not coming back to the Indians.

Nick Maronde, LHP

The same logic of not even being one of the top 30 Rule 5 eligible prospects in the Indians organization applies here, too.  Maronde was once a top prospect for the Angels but has not produced for the Indians and is not much of a loss at this point.  He was lost in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft so he isn't coming back.

Grant Sides, RHP

Like Frank, he is the classic Indians later round pick and, like Frank, obviously not highly thought of as he wasn't protected on the AAA reserve list.   A college pitcher they turned into a pro reliever.   He is currently 27 years old and didn't make my top 52.  While he still might make the majors I don't see him having that much impact.  He was lost in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 so he isn't coming back.
 
Jon Fitzsimmons, RHP

A guy the Indians picked up this past summer, he hadn't pitched since 2014 when the Royals released him.  This is an interesting draft pick as, while he won't be coming back to the Indians as he was selected in the minor league Rule 5, he is also one of the more unlikely selections as a 25 year old who has only 10 games at low A ball.

Musings for a Sunday night in early December

Mike Napoli or no Mike Napoli.   Let's be honest.  Cleveland, despite it's great season, is where guys go to re-start their careers on one-year deals so they can, the next year, go elsewhere and cash in on the season they had in Cleveland.  Why, because there will always be some rich team who can overpay a guy like Napoli for multiple years, have him fall on his face, and it still not kill their budget for years to come...because they can afford to have bigger budgets!

The only thing I will say in Napoli's defense is that if he will accept a one-year deal I would take him for even $10 million in that year.   Why?  I think his intangibles in 'the room' are knowns to Francona and the Indians whereas those of anyone else (including Encarnacion and Fowler) are suspect if you put them in the position Napoli was in last year.  We are in our 'window' now and he will, for next year, likely help keep us there  But for more than one year?  Never.  Yeah, it may kill our playoff chances next year but next year in the playoffs and years after that, signing Napoli might significantly hurt our chances of winning long term.

HOFers...or not.  In the mid- to late-90s I dreamed on the prospect of having multiple Indians from that era make the Hall of Fame.   A couple of decades later I am still waiting.  Now Albert Belle is on a separate ballot.  It reminds me of what could have been:

Carlos Baerga, Julie Franco, Albert Belle , Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Omar Vizquel, even Robbie Alomar and maybe Sandy Alomar looked like potential HOFers.  Now, due to injuries, steroids, following the money overseas and precipitous declines ability, it looks like only Thome and Vizquel have a shot at the HOF with Belle having a slight shot.   And there is no guarantee if they do make it that they will go in as Indians since they did leave Cleveland, many significantly before their careers ended.

Why am I mentioning this?  Because the Indians didn't do enough (which means they should have done it no matter what the cost) to keep their HOFers here.   Yeah, we would have been burned, HOF-wise, on Ramirez, Robbie Alomar and Baerga but for all the other guys, they are likely or were likely, given difference circumstances of going in the HOF.

Looking at the current roster only Francisco Lindor looks like a likely HOFer.   In the next year or two we need to give him a lifetime contract.  Yeah, at the end of it we will be rueing the day we gave him that deal...until he goes into the HOF as an Indian.

None of the above was worth the money they made when they left the Indians.  Yet, had we had them here, we would be looking at a lot of HOF guys over the next few years.    And, living in St. Louis, the value of those statues outside the stadium is invaluable to keep the tradition alive.

Ohio  State Football - OK, this is a baseball blog.   But in all the controversy or perceived controversy about the final 4 this year, there is one thing that I see noticeably missing.   People are ticked about Washington's non-conference schedule but they don't seem to talk about Ohio State's luck.   Realistically OSU could be sitting at 8-4 now and looking at a matchup in a minor bowl game.   Putting Clemson ahead of them was a symbolic thing to do.   I think they should have been ranked 4th with Washington 3rd.  I just don't think they showed enough to be in the top 3 and only because of the closeness of some of the major conference championship games do I even think OSU deserves to be in the final 4.  People who make a big deal about Washington's weak non-conference schedule and don't ding the Buckeyes for their multiple almost losses are, in my opinion, missing the real issue:  You have to dominate to make the final 4.   A win is not a win when you are talking about the football playoffs.   And Ohio State's close wins are just as suspect, if not more, than Washington's weak non-conference schedule.   And you are getting that opinion from a lifelong Buckeye fan an Buckeye alum (sort of).

Thankful that I am a Cleveland fan

Hey, I grew up in the Cleveland area and have been a Cleveland sports fan my entire life.  I 'fly the colors' wearing my Indians stuff.   I am not afraid to tell people I am a Cleveland sports fan and I bristle every time I see any mention of 'the mistake on the lake'. 

Why do I say this now?

Because this is probably the golden age (if one year can define an age) of Cleveland sports.   The Cavs and Indians have provided us thrills and championships this year and Ohio State looks like it is going back to the football playoffs after beating that team up north (always a thrill in and of itself).  The minor league hockey team won a championship and even the Browns are working on a perfect season (tongue firmly in cheek) and are providing us with some nostalgia, taking us back to a time when the big excitement for a Cleveland fan was when their team approached earning the top pick in next year's draft!

So, let's be happy, fellow Clevelanders.   This age may last a couple of minutes, a couple of years or a decade or may be snuffed out by a solar flare.  Who can tell.  Let's just sit back and watch and enjoy.   Now it isn't "wait 'til next year" it is "I can't wait 'til next year!"

Indians' needs for 2017

A hot topic in the off-season is what your team needs to add in the off-season.   A look at the Royals in 2015 and 2016 shows that not much changed.  However, a few injuries to key players and not having a quality 5th starter turned out to be the difference between a WS champion in 2015 and a .500 record in 2016. 

The key for me is to address areas of possible weakness as much as areas of actual weakness.   Let's take a look at the Indians, area by area:

Bullpen: We need a solid setup man who has closed successfully in the recent past.  Look, I know we have Miller, Allen and Shaw.  But look at how those guys were used in 2016.  It would be an amazing feat if those guys pitched as strongly and as long in 2017.  Francona rides his bullpen hard and I don't honestly believe that relying on these three guys to go 7th, 8th, and 9th (or 8th and 9th or just 9th) every time we have a close game is realistic.  We need to have another guy who can save the arms of these 3 or, more likely, can give us quality relief WHEN one of these guys goes to the DL.  We won't be able to afford the luxury of what we really need: one quality righty and one quality lefty who is more than a loogy.   We will have to settle for one of those two.  Yes, we have McAllister and Otero and should probably re-sign Manship but we need more than Armstrong, Adams, Colon, Crockett, etc. to back the top 6 up.  If even one of those last 4 end up giving us quality innings all through the 2017 regular season I will be ecstatic.  Hoping for more than that is just too much to ask, in my opinion.

Catcher - I think we are probably good there and investing any resources in a catcher is probably a waste of time.  Yes, we might be able to upgrade but at what cost?  Better we re-sign Chris Gimenez and Adam Moore to minor league deals and hope Gomes and Perez give us good production next year.   I think it is a good gamble they will.

Infield -  First, I don't think we re-sign Napoli unless we can get him at the same price we got him at this year.  Santana is a good alternative at first base and decent DHs are cheaper than giving Napoli a multi-year deal.  Hard to swallow but I think I am being a pragmatist here.   You really don't know how much production you will get out of him next year after how hard Francona rode him this year.  I want to sign him but not for more than one year with a club option for the same amount or a $2 million buyout for the second year..  Assuming we re-sign Napoli, the obvious position we need help with is third base.  Yes, Jose Ramirez did well there when he was pressed into service.   But imagine if we could use him as a super sub and get him 500 ABs and get good production at third base from a free agent!  I think we need to focus some (actually MOST) of our free agent dollars here.   The guy, whoever he would be, could spell at DH, too, giving Napoli and, to a lesser degree, Santana more rest than they got this year. 

Outfield - Right now the Indians are set in the outfield IF Michael Brantley comes back.   If that happened they wouldn't even need to re-sign Rajai Davis.  One caveat, however.   I really, truly believe that Tyler Naquin might not make this team next year.  His weaknesses on both sides of the ball were so exposed in the World Series that he might actually be done.  Add that to his likely unrepeatable HR rate and he looks like a 4th outfielder to me at this point.  Thinks could change and  I hope I am wrong but he has got to fix the things that made him an automatic out in the WS.  Other than that, I would not want the Indians to give the guy a chance just because he was able to get hits before the Cubs figured him out.  Assuming Brantley doesn't come back strong next year, you almost have to re-sign Davis and Napoli and hope that the 2016 chemistry and magic carries over to 2017.  If things don't go well in the first half of 2017, you can still go out and get an OF bat at the deadline.  I know it didn't work this year in terms of getting an impact OF bat in July but availability might be better this coming July, if the need arises. 

The rotation - Look, every team wants more starters.  The Indians have talked about having 10 guys who could start next year.  Frankly, I think they already have that here.  The same logic applies to the starters as it does to the outfield.   Yeah, it would be nice to have more depth but if the need arises you get a rotation arm at the deadline.  Until then, even with injuries, you have enough to muddle through until near the trade deadline, especially if you can stash an innings eating minor league free agent signing or two at Columbus until the end of May.

The bench - We have already covered some of this above but the bench is an area I wouldn't waste resources on.  My infield bench, if Ramirez is a super sub, is Erik Gonzalez with Michael Martinez stashed at AAA.  In the outfield we have platoon guys and I think we are good there, especially considering the other things I am suggesting doing above.  Plus, there is still the chance that Zimmer and/or Yandy Diaz could be ready to help in the OF by next June. 

Summary - This team needs an impact bat, especially at third base.  This becomes the mega-signing that I think the Indians need to gamble on as I think it will help team morale and get the fans pumped up for next season.   If we can get him on a one-year deal we need to bring back Napoli, too. He is the heart and soul of this team as long as we don't ask him to be the statistical or innings played leader of the team. We also need an excellent bullpen arm and it would help if he was left-handed but could still get righties out, although a particular handedness is not a necessity if he can get all hitters out.  I think, for a major league team with the payroll Cleveland has to work with, that is all we actually NEED.   Note that the Royals brought back almost everyone in 2016 but didn't bring in a lot of talent in addition to the 2015 team and it wasn't nearly enough.   We need to learn from that model.   You can't go spending-happy as a small market club but if you believe like I do that 2016 was more magical than pre-ordained, we need to prepare for 2017 to have more bumps in the road than 2016, especially as I expect the Royals to rebound.   In order to do that we have some work to do and will have to spend money this off-season to get that work done.  

It's prospect list season - Here's mine

Here is my list of the top 50 Indians' prospects heading into the 2016 off-season. 

1. Triston McKenzie
2. Nolan Jones
3. Francisco Mejia
4. Brady Aiken
5. Bradley Zimmer
6. Bobby Bradley
7. Erik Gonzalez
8. Yandy Diaz
9. Adam Plutko
10. Yu Cheng Chang
11. Ryan Merritt
12. Will Benson
13. Shawn Morimando
14. Greg Allen
15. Andrew Calica
16. Connor Marabell
17. Mark Mathias
18. Joseph Colon
19. Rob Kaminsky
20. Aaron Civale
21. Shane Bieber
22. Cameron Hill
23.  Mike Papi
24. Willi Castro
25. Juan Hillman
26. Nellie Rodriguez
27. Tyler Krieger
28. Matt Esparza
29. Shawn Armstrong
30. Connor Capel
31. Anthony Santander
32. Logan Ice
33. Taylor Murphy
34. Ben Krauth
35. Julian Merryweather
36. Gabriel Mejia
37. Ulysses Cantu
38. Marco Gonzalez
39. Samad Taylor
40. Luis Oviedo
41. Jorma Rodriguea
42. Oscar Gonzalez
43. Thomas Pannone
44. Nick Pasquale
45. Casey Shane
46. Andrew Lantrip
47. Zach Plesac
48. Louis Head
49. Jose Fermin
50. Jonas Wyatt
51. Luke Watkamatsu
52. Justin Garza (2015 draftee)

Post-election musings

Wow, how life imitates art.   First the Cubs win the World Series and then Donald Trump becomes president-elect.   I wonder if it will be Trump who greets the Cubs at the White House?  Wouldn't that be like two anti-matter particles colliding?

To steal a phrase from "Back To The Future", who became Vice President, Kim Kardasian?

OK, all kidding aside, Trump's election should bring at least one fleeting question into the minds of baseball fans.  How, if at all, will Trump's election impact the number of foreign-born players in baseball?  Obviously the NHL has the highest percentage of non-US born players at close to 50%.  However, not counting that sport which originated, for the most part, in Canada, baseball comes in second with 28% of their players born outside the US.   The NBA has like 2% foreign-born players.  Even the NHL, if you don't count Canada, has less than 14% of its players born neither in Canada or the US.  

So, if Trump really follows through with actions that support his verbalized isolationist leanings, will it impact the number of foreign players who can even get into the US to play baseball?  In the past, due to concerns about identity fraud and other issues, it has not been a piece of cake to get Latin players into the US.  Will Trump's regime make it harder and, if so, will it actually impact the talent in MLB?

Probably a non-issue but, given Trump's stated positions, something that we have to at least consider.

After a night of reflection...

...here are my thoughts about the Indians and the WS.

10. Do you think in 20 years that anybody will remember that Mike Montgomery retired the Indians' 25th player who was 0-3 with 3 Ks to get the save in Game 7?  Probably people will remember him for getting that last out, not the circumstances.  For Montgomery, whether he goes on to have a great career or not, he at least has him moment.  Very few baseball players ever get that moment. 

9  Mike Napoli had a horrible series.  When you combine his streakiness with the Cubs pitching and the fact that he played more this year than in a long time (maybe ever) it is not surprising.  I just wish he would have been able to come up big last night.  Still, it makes you wonder if you should bring hm back next year.  If he is becoming more of a part-time player in this part of his career, is he worth what we would have to pay him?

8. I wonder what all this means for guys like Otero, McAllister and Manship?  Do you keep them because they can get you regular season outs?  I guess so.  Still, does it mean you don't want them around because they can't get WS outs?  It's almost like they are regulated in the post-season to blow outs or bullpen games.  

7. If he avoids injury and gets some more post-season chances Francisco Lindor is going to be a HOFer.  Let's hope they break the bank and make him an Indian for life.  Seeing Thome there in this series and knowing that Vizquel, Belle and Ramirez left too early and Baerga flamed out too early and knowing if we kept Julio Franco at DH all those years we would have had a half a dozen legitimated HOF candidates out of the wonder years.  Hindsight is 20-20 but using hindsight to shape foresight is really important.

6. Good to see Trevor Bauer end on a high note.   I only wish he would have started the 10th inning

5. If the Indians make it back to the World Series next year the experience they gained this year will be invaluable.

4. What heart the Indians had this year and especially in the post-season.   I think I wanted us to win so much that I completely forgot what a miracle it was for them to be there.  Now, if only Paul Hoynes next spring can predict the Indians to be in the cellar of the AL Central maybe it will give them the incentive to win it all.

3. As far as next year, is it possible that Naquin could win the AL Rookie of the year award this year and next year not make the team?  I think so. 

2. Congrats to Mike Chernoff and Chris Antonetti.  What a great job of bringing in Guyer and Crisp.  They were both big contributors in the regular season and the playoffs.   Obviously Miller was huge.  However I wonder when the last time was that a team brought in guys the level of Guyer and Crisp and they contributed so much in the post-season.

1. More about next year.  It is quite possible, the way he was used, that we might have seen the best Andrew Miller will ever give us.  I know that is doomsaying but I wouldn't be surprised to see him be out most of next year or the year after that.  Tito rode him pretty hard this year.  Ditto for Shaw and even Cody Allen.   When he said that when he had a chance to win a playoff game he would take it and he would let the next game take care of itself, Tito forgot about next year.   These guys all appeared fried last night, as did Chapman of course.  Reminds me of the way Milaukee used Sabathia when the Indians traded him to Milwaukee before the deadline several years ago.  Let's hope I am wrong but I really wonder if the big 3 in the Indians' pen will make it to the opening day roster and through next season healthy.

The stars almost all aligned for the Indians this year.  Let's hope they do next year.  Go Tribe!

Congratulations, Indians and Chicago Cubs

Before my post, I wanted to congratulate the Cubs fans.   No one should have to wait 108 years for a World Series title and no team should have to be the target of so many jokes because of that drought and some of your near misses in the past.   If anyone had to beat the Indians I am glad it was your team and, in fact, I am glad that your team had such fight to come back from the Indians 8th inning rally when I am sure some fans were saying 'Oh no, here we go again.'  So enjoy this moment and to the Cleveland Indians and their manager and their GM, I say thanks for the ride it was great.  Now on to the post I crafted before Game 6.

As I said in my previous post I had this post already written before knowing what was going to happen in Game 6 of the World Series.  So, by now, the Indians could be celebrating and I could be hitting send.   Or I might have to wait until tomorrow night, win or lose, to hit send.

In any case, you learn a lot from your kids but one thing I never would have learned from them came from the world of professional wrestling.  You know, that sport has come a long way from the days I watched it growing up in Cleveland, watching Bobo Brazil, Bulldog Brower and others wrestle on TV, when there were only 3 channels. 

Now my kids are interested in it and one of them was watching an old Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson match where he said, "you can take that ____, turn it sideways, and shove it up your candy a**".

So, as I hit send, knowing whether we won or lost this series, here are my final thoughts on it:

First, to the Cleveland Indians, players, manager, organization and management, AND ownership, congratulations on a memorable season.   In the end, the curse has been lifted, whether we won or not.

Second, to the Cleveland fans, congratulations.   Hopefully, win or lose, you acted respectfully and in good sportsmanship.   Next year it would be great if the fans could show up all year and not just on opening day and in October.  I know there are lots of people out there who love the Indians and some of us would love the ability to go to Cleveland and see them all the time, although we can't.  So please be there for us and we will support them in spirit and when they come to or close to our town or when we make it to Cleveland.

Third, to the Cubs fans, and I know a number of you, congratulations on a great season.   Part of me hopes your curse was broken but most of me hopes our drought was broken.   I think all of you are great, almost 100% of you are without pretense, smugness or a superiority complex.   Way to go.  Your future is bright.   You have great players and great management and ownership and one of the best ballparks to watch a game at in the major leagues. 

Fourth, to the media, especially those of you who are clearly not even close to unbiased, including the TBS people who made up and supported the burning river promo, those MLB network people who spent about 80% of your time talking about the Cubs in this series and even one of the Fox announcers (I have had harsh things to say about how biased this guy has been in the past against the Indians, almost like he was the hometown announcer for whoever their opponent was) well, to paraphrase The Rock, why don't you take that microphone (or graphics computer, if appropriate), turn it sideways, and stick it up your candy a**.

Finally, to the Cubs players, and I am sure there must be a good number of you, who honestly are just putting in a good effort without pretense, smugness or air of superiority, and trying to win the championship for the long suffering Cubs fans, congratulations on a great season.   To those of you (and I can think of at least 3 of you) who are thinking 'hey, we are so much better than the Indians they shouldn't even be allowed in the World Series against us and if they win it doesn't make them the better team', you can take your 36 inch, 36 ounce bat, turn it sideways, and stick it up your candy a** because, win or lose, the undermanned Indians played this entire post-season with more heart, more intensity, more love of the game and more love for the city of Cleveland than you ever will have in your life.  And, if you do happen to win the series, don't cheapen it with crying and saying how you did it for Cubs fans, don't lie.  You few did it for yourself.  You know it and I know it, because it is written all over your faces, in your words and in your expressions.  I'll tell you what.  Let's look a few years down the road and see if you stick with the Cubs or if you go to another team who gives you a few more bucks.  That will tell a lot.

I hope when I press "SEND" tomorrow night it will be when I am watching the Indians celebrating their first WS title since 1948.  But if I am watching the Cubs celebrate their first championship since 1908, then I will say "way to go, Cubbies" when I hit that SEND button.  But my thoughts above won't have changed in any way because you are what you are, regardless of whether 'your team' wins or loses.

Back to Cleveland

Well, 2016 has been a wild ride and the ride will end where it began...in Cleveland.  Two big differences between then and now:

1. The temperature tonight will be 76 degrees for a night game.  On April 5th it was 34 degrees for a day game.  Then it was 15 days into spring.  Now it is about 51 days before winter.

2. Then it was the first of 161 regular season games.   Now it will be end up being the last game of three playoff series.

The Indians have given us a lot to cheer about and we should all just cheer our brains out for what remains of this series.

Thanks to the Indians for giving us the gift of 2016, a gift that came without a lot of fanfare and without, in fact, a lot of fans..at least until we got to October.  The season WILL end the same in one regard, with a sold old stadium!  

The place will be rocking tonight and will be reminiscent of that first game at this stadium back in April of 1994.  I still have the commemorative picture in my office of that first game.  

I was, am and will be always a Cleveland Indians fan, ever since my favorite player when I was 6 years old was Tito Francona...THE Tito Francona, back in 1959.  So it has come full circle for me, rooting for the father then and rooting for the son to work his magic now.

I have an entire post that I have written and will post it as it, regardless of the outcome of the rest of this series.  I have a lot to say and will get it said after we end this series.

But, for now, let's just enjoy this game tonight and enjoy this gift granted to us by the Indians.   If we cheer our brains out, we honor that gift.   I plan to honor that gift until I am hoarse.

Good luck Indians.   Go Tribe!

Raise your hand if you thought this would be easy

OK, we gear up to go to Chicago for game 3 tomorrow night. 

I mean, really, except in the al things magically coming together world, who honestly thought that we would win this series 4-0 or, even, that we would go to Chicago 2-0?

This is baseball, this is fun.   Things happen.     And more will happen.  

Actually, I am really happy with what went on last night.   It could have gotten ugly but our bullpen dug in and held it to a level where one swing of the bat (with the bases loaded, of course) could have tied the game.  There are some real positives from the pitching staff there that set up the rest of the series and even some positives from our hitters.  Plus, there were LOTS of positives I saw relative to the Cubs, but more on that later.

Some suggestions for the rest of the series:

• When facing Chapman...bunt.   Every time, all the time.   it gives you a better look at the pitch, making it unlikely you will flail at that high hard one that you can't get on top of.  The stats would say that it is just luck when people actually hit the ball against him and, sometimes, if that luck includes completely squaring up the ball, it ends up in a HR.  But don't count on luck.   Bunt and take the walks when they are available, which they usually are...just ask Rajai Davis.
• Don't start Kluber in Game 4.   Start Andrew Miller instead.   Then bring in Kluber in the 3rd inning.  I know this is crazy thinking.   These guys have never done this before, how can they ever adjust?   Well, they have adjusted all year to crazy things.   Why not now?  If this works Kluber could potentially have to go only 5 innings to get to Allen. 
• The outfield:  I have no suggestions here.   One of Naquin or Davis have to step up and start playing.   If Francona REALLY thinks that they have Naquin's number, that they have found his Achilles heel (which is my thought, actually) then play Davis all the time.   At this point, just like with Chapman, you don't just throw stuff against the wall and hope that it sticks.
• Just keep on keepin' on.    Hey, as I said below I trust in Tito (interestingly I got a lot of 'hits' from Eastern Europe when I posted that, go figure!).  He got us here and he knows his team.  I will have some more to say about how he is using his team after the series but right now he is the guy who, frankly against all odds, has gotten us here. 

Hey, no one said it would be easy.  Our guys just have to keep on plugging.   Victories in a series like this come from unexpected sources and we have more unexpected sources at our disposal now. 

Go Tribe!

'Twas the Night Before Christmas/your birthday/the date you won the lottery/etc.

For the diehard Cleveland Indians fans it may seem like all of the above.

Drink it in, fellow Tribe fans. 

We are in the World Series.

Although no one should think we are just happy to be here, as fans, we are happy to be here.

That being said, most of you reading this were around in 1995 and 1997.   For those of us who lived through that, especially '97, believe me when I tell you that we are not just happy to be here.   We want to win it all.

Once you are there, it is the only reason to be there, to win it all.

So let's go Tribe.

Win it all!

Trust in TIto

OK, because I am a little slow on the keyboard this morning this post may seem like I am just piling on.

I want to preface this by saying that I have lived in St. Louis since I was 27, or most of my adult life.  I have seem PLENTY of great, HOF-caliber managers from the magician Whitey Herzog who always got the most out of every player to Tony LaRussa who really knew the game and how to put a team together and get them through the season to now Mike Matheny who is doing some amazing things with, frankly, not very overwhelming talent, again getting the most out of his players.   That doesn't even count Joe Torre who was drummed out of town as being inferior to the average St. Louis manager.

So believe me when I tell you that Francona has shown this year that he is in a class with those guys, all of whom may well end up in the HOF as managers some day.

As I said, I trust in Tito.   There is no angst on my part when I watch a game this year...totally the opposite of '94 and '97.  Maybe I am older and have gained perspective but I don't think so.

One of LaRussa's great assets was Dave Duncan.   So is Mickey Calloway to Francona.  I know the Indians' pitchers will be ready.

Hey, is there a chance that the pitchers on this staff will end up like so many of Dusty Baker's pitchers have in the past, total wrecks by the time Francona gets done with them?  Possibly.  Is it possible that Andrew Miller will never be the same again after the way he was used in the playoffs?  Possibly.    Did we trade too much for Miller.   Probably, if you take a long-term viewpoint.   For small market teams getting no one out of a draft class really does hurt your team.   That is essentially what will happen from the Miller trade.   So we are probably robbing Peter to pay Paul there.  But even if you hold that view you have to admit that in order not to make it totally suck, Francona had to make Miller pay off in performance.  He had done that, in spades.     No one at this point can doubt the Miller trade as, while we didn't need him at the time as we had 5 solid, deep-in-the-game starters, we don't now and we can see the extreme value in Miller when used the way Francona is using him...and so can all the rest of baseball.

Trust in Tito.  He has guided the ship this far.   He can get us the rest of the way.

So, here we are up 3-1

Is there a type in your sports fan life where you just stop analyzing and just sit back and let it all happen?

Take it from an Indians junky who has spent a lot of my adult life trying to analyze every little roster move, draft pick, developmental decision, trade and player release....there is.

So, even before today I placed myself in Terry Francona's hands, so to speak.   Not in a religious way but, nonetheless, in a sense in a spiritual way. 

I am at peace with this season, whatever comes next.

We have gotten to the brink of the World Series with, essentially, two starting pitchers.  We have had limited offense in this series and yet are one win away from the World Series, with our opponent, if we get there, being more in doubt than at any time this season.

Tomorrow they hand the ball to Ryan Merritt.  If they need to play another day it will be Josh Tomlin in Game 6 and then, if they need to go the distance, Corey Kluber in Game 7. 

Let's hope we don't have to go that far.   Remember, familiarity is not necessarily a good thing and, in fact, there is no pressure on Merritt as even if we lose we go back to Cleveland having to win one of two.

Terry Pluto said he is nervous.  About what? This is only baseball and, with the curse lifted by the Cavaliers, it is really only baseball.   I have put my trust in Terry Francona.  He has brought us this far with our #1 and #5 starters being all that is left of our rotation.  Win or lose, I am at peace with how this season has gone.   Will I be disappointed if we don't make the Series or, if we do, if we don't win it....again?  

No, I am at peace with this season and, surprisingly, with baseball.   Good luck, Indians.  Have a great time and enjoy this.  You, too, Ryan Merritt. 

Better to be up 2-0...

I know the history.   The last two times the Indians have jumped out in front of the Red Sox in the post-season the Sox have come back to sweep the rest of the series and eliminate...and break the hearts of...the Tribe.

Still, it is better to be in our position than in Texas' position right now, down 2-0 and going to Toronto for the next two.

Baseball is a strange game at this time of year.    Weird things can and do happen.   Let's hope our roll continues as we go to Boston.  For reasons I will discuss later I think we are positioned well for the remainder of this series.  But weird things can and do happen.

So, enjoy what has happened so far and root hard for the rest of our post-season run!

Go Tribe!!

Post-season roster

I agree with the Indians and the post-season roster for this series.  Yeah, we have 3 catchers but if this series comes down to us needing a pinch runner and we don't have one, so be it.  You should not make up your post-season roster for one scenario and, with the two best offensive teams in the AL, pinch runners shouldn't be a priority. 

As far as the pitching staff, it is hard to argue with that in the post-season.   We have Clevinger and Anderson to eat innings if necessary, and, if you have to eat a bunch of innings more than twice, your season is probably over, anyway, in a best of 5.   Other than that it is our iron man bullpen.   No other pitcher has shown well enough to be considered for the roster.

Not saying that if we go to the 7  game series we won't do something different.   I would go with only two catchers and add one extra pitcher at that point (Crockett if we think he can get out a tough lefty)..  If we go to the WS you have to think about adding more speed and versatility and having 5 outfielders plus Napoli when we would play in the NL park makes no sense at all.   So, at that point, I am looking at Erik Gonzalez to replace one of the OFers. 

But, for right now, these are the right 25 guys as Gomes represents your lightning-in-a-bottle guy.  I think his HR in KC was more of a flash-in-the-pan than any real lightning but, what the heck?   Maybe he is our miracle guy.  Solid roster with one wild card guy.  That's the way a best of 5 roster should be set up.

Good luck Tribe

The playoffs start tonight.   Good luck to the Indians.

Only 10 of the 30 teams make the playoffs so we have already 'won' by even getting this far.

We have the 4th best record in baseball, another 'win'.

We have already done this without Michael Brantley and without Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco for a good deal of time.

Sound like an apology for us being about to lose to the Red Sox?

Not even close.  

This is the post-season and we are here and ready to play.   This team has been ready to play since opening day.  

Let's go Tribe.   I still hold by my prediction that we are winning the World Series this year.  Anyone who has watched this team this year who doesn't believe the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, well, just watch starting tonight.

Go Tribe!!!

AFL Roster - What does it mean

OK, the Arizona Fall League isn't normally filled with prospects.   Good prospects go there, to be sure.   But the Indians' history is that you can't really tell who their good proapects are if you look at the AFL rosters.

So it is this year.

Really, there are only two legitimate prospects on the AFL roster: Zimmer and Chang.   Now, some may argue that Greg Allen is a prospect but I don't think that he is as his game is lacking any power at all.    The pitchers, Michael Peoples, Trevor Frank, Cameron Hill and David Speer are not exactly top prospects nor is Eric Haase at catcher.

This year, more than any year in the AFL, it is kind of a snooze-fest for Indians fans.  There isn't really a big reason to follow the AFL this year unless you are interested in following Bradley Zimmer.   Other than him it may be years, if at all, before any of our other players in the AFL make it to the majors.  This looks more like a typical Cleveland Indians farm team roster than it does a roster in what should be an all-star league.

Just my opinion.

TJ House and minor leaguers not currently on the active roster.

I guess I don't understand the math.   Dylan Baker has not pitched an inning this year.  His career has continually been slowed by injury.   Why not DFA him and keep TJ House?

Don't get that move to bring in Adam Plutko but, as I have said before, teams sometimes bring in wild cards at the end of the season as other teams don't have a book on the guy.  Good plan to bring in Plutko but don't agree with House.  So, like Plutko, don't like the roster management move, especially when Baker is the most likely player to be jettisoned when the 60-day DL guys come off that list after the playoffs are over. 

Yeah, House has not dominated when in Cleveland but he certainly has more value than Baker short term AND long term, even if the difference is very small as House has about worn out his welcome here.

So, another headscratcher for the Indians.  Not a huge deal but a headscratcher, nonetheless.

Also, don't underatand, except for space considerations, why Morimando and Urshela are not on the active roster.    Each might have had some value in September.  Each has, in my opinion, more long term value and a better chance to be on the playoff roster than does Jesus Aguilar.

Finally, although he is useful now, given that we are essentially qualified, should we still be playing Almonte at all?  I don't think he can become a free agent this winter but, if he can, should we just DFA him now?   He serves little value to this team, we can always sign him back later and it allows us to bring someone else up from the minors.  Just rambling now but we are trying to make the playoffs and playing guys who won't be around then makes little sense, except to use them as spring-training-like replacements for the last few games.   If we do that, even more reason to wonder why Urshela is not here as he gives us extra rest for one of Ramirez, Lindor and Kipnis.   Better to have two guys to rest those three instead of just one. 

Looking ahead to the playoffs

Yes, the Indians might lose all the rest of their games, the Tigers may get hot and we may not win the division.  It could happen.   But the odds are that it will not.

Given the probability of this team making the playoffs let's size up our playoff team.

Catcher - I think we are set with Perez and Gimenez,  unless one gets hurt
First base/DH - Santana and Napoli are set here, although I would like to see Napoli rested about 2/3 of the time the rest of the way as he is reaching unknown territory in terns of games played.
Infield - We are pretty well set as it looks like Ramirez, Lindor and Kipnis are locked in with Michael Martinez as the one utility infielder.
Outfield - Crisp, Davis, Chisenhall, Naquin and Guyer appear to have those spots manned pretty well.

That gives you 13 players but 5 of them are outfielders.   We are VERY short on the infield and will have two outfielders sitting on the bench doing nothing in every game.  In an AL series that is a little tough to take. 

The pitching staff is another story as that is far from set.

Starters - Kluber, Bauer and Tomlin are pretty much locks
Bullpen - Shaw, Miller, Allen, Otero, McAllister and Manship look like locks right now
Question marks - In an ideal world Tomlin would have been our long man and we would have gone with a 4 man rotation.   However, without Carrasco and Salazar we are not going to have that luxury.   This where Francona and his staff make their money.  We have 3 spots left to fill.  I don't know who they are going to pick but likely one of them has to be a starter with two relievers, one of whom can give you innings deep in the game if need be.  My guess would be that they would pick

Starter - Clevinger
Relievers - Joe Colon and Ryan Merritt

However, I really have no idea.  Will they keep one less outfielder and add another reliever so they can have a bullpen day, if need be?  Will they decide on different  relievers other than Colon? 

I don't have the answers.   I just hope Francona does

Minor League Playoff Wrapup

Congrats to the Akron Rubberducks for winning the EL Championship with a 3-0 sweep of the Trenton Thunder.

"Rubberduckies you're the one, you make baseball so much fun, Rubberduckies, I'm awfully fond of you."

Columbus lost in the first round 3-1

Lynchburg lost in the Carolina League finals 3-1

AZL Indians lost in the first round 1-0.

Of note is that Mike Papi concluded the season (both regular season and the playoffs) VERY hot and showing VERY GOOD power.   This essentially bookends his season where his first couple of weeks were smokin' at Lymchburg.   So the guy remains an intriguing prospect.  It is hard to tell what is going on with him as, in watching him, I don't get why he looks so physically weak at the plate sometimes.  But I guess that is why I am typing and others are coaching.  Now, Mike, all we have to do is work in your performance in May, June, July and August and you will be a stud prospect once again.   With the loss of Clint Frazier, we need Papi to step up to replace him as a star in the making.

Minor League Season in Review

Well, the regular season is now over for all minor league teams.  The playoffs start for those that made it that far.   So let's take a look at how the Indians did (my prediction in parentheses)

Columbus 82-62 - 1st place IL West (70-74) (PLAYOFF TEAM)
Akron 77-64 - 1st place EL West (80-64) (PLAYOFF TEAM)
Lynchburg 84-66 - 1st place both halves of Carolina League North Division (PLAYOFF TEAM)
Lake County - 72-68 (76-68) - missed playoffs because finished one game back in MWL East
Mahoning Valley - 37-38 (32-44)
AZL Indians - 31-25 (33-23) 1st place in 1st half in AZL Central Div. (PLAYOFF TEAM) - Lost in playoffs to AZL Reds

Final overall minor league record: 383-323 for a winning pct. of .542.

Four of the 6 minor league teams made the playoffs.  If Lake County had won one more game in the first half they would have been in the playoffs, too.

Five of the 6 teams finished with winning records.  If MV had won only one of the games they lost this season all 6 teams would have had winning records, something that I don't think has happened to the Indians in their recent history.  Although winning isn't worth much in the minors it is good to win, nevertheless.

Most of the Indians' top prospects had seasons that will keep them in that top prospect category.  Only James Ramsey (lost to waivers), Dylan Baker (injuries) and Luke Wakamatsu (injuries) did not perform at a level that would keep them at that status.   Besides those 3 guys only Mitch Brown and Dorssys Paulino hurt their prospect status and many guys increased their worth by having good minor league seasons or making their ML debuts.   Two (Frazier and Sheffeld) were traded and one guy who would have moved up the prospect rankings (Ben Heller) was traded, too. 

All-in-all, a good season by the Indians minor leaguers, maybe the best in recent memory.   Now on to the minor league playoffs!  

Let's Break The Stereotype

So, the Indians are getting Coco Crisp.   Good for them.  He can be on the post-season roster if we get him, as expected, tomorrow.

9/1/16 UPDATE: Mission accomplished.  Colt Hynes isn't even a prospect.   About the right price to save Oakland $500,000 for the rest of the year.   If this isn't life imitating art I can see the Cleveland front office calling the club president asking if they can have money to make the trade just like in Moneyball. 

But hold on.  It is a trade, for a one-month rental (plus post-season, if one is there for the Tribe).  He is hitting .234 for the year, .239 against righties. 

As far as left handed hitter outfielders who can play in the post-season we have Chisenhall and Naquin.  Obviusly Almonte and Ramirez, switchhitters both, are out as the latter can't play in the post-season and the former is playing 3B. 

Still, this leaves me with two questions:

1. How much did we give up to get him?

and

2. How much did we give up to get him?

36 year old outfielders who are destined for free agency and who is have a below-average major league season who we are getting as a spare part should come very cheap...like for paying the guy's salary.   For Ricardo Rincon the A's gave us the immortal Marshall McDougall.  Yeah, that kind of deal.

So, even if we give up a "B" prospect it is too much.   MacDougall was a "C" prospect, at best.  

For example, a "C" prospect is Yoiber Marquina or maybe Cameron Hill.   I have heard talk it could be Gabriel Mejia.   He is, to me, a "B" prospect.   He is too much to pay for a one-month rental.  Yes, he is not an "A" prospect despite his gaudy batting average and stolen base numbers over the last 3 years.   He is still in rookie ball and is not a young Dominican, by any means.   Still, he has upside.

So, after our overpay for Andrew Miller, should we overpay even a cent for Crisp?   Don't know the answer to that but, on paper, Crisp is a wing and a prayer.   For that, you don't overpay even a penny. 

September Callups

As we approach Sept. 1st when the major league rosters can be increased from 25 to 40 players, there is always a lot of speculation about who will be recalled from the minors.

There are really three types of teams at this point in the season: teams fighting for division titles, teams fighting for a wild card and teams that are out of the race for playoff spots.

When you are in the latter category your mission is simple: balance your minor leaguers playing in a playoff atmosphere in the minors vs giving them their first taste of the big leagues to get the jitters out if they make the majors the next season.   Teams fall on the either side of that fence even though recently it appears that ML teams value minor league playoff experience over being in the majors with a bunch of guys just playing out the string.   Sometimes teams will hand out 'thank you' callups to veteran minor leaguers who have had good seasons and toiled in the minors for years without getting ANY big league playing time.  

For the other two categories above, the equation is a much different one: which player(s) can we bring up from the minors who will help us win in September and, possibly, help us in the playoffs if we have spots on our 25 man playoff roster due to having guys on the 60-day DL.  For these teams, leaving guys in the minors to get playoff experience is not an issue.  Can you help us?  OK, you are in the majors.

Right now the Indians are in the first category.   They are in first place and, although there is A LOT of season left, they look pretty good to win the AL Central.   So, clearly, they are looking for guys who will be able to help them in September AND in the playoffs.  With that in mind, here is my assessment on which players they should bring up:

Pitchers:

Here is the thinking.  You either bring up relievers already on the 40 man roster to eat innings or you bring up starters and put them in the bullpen if you think there stuff will play up in relief as the league won't have 'a book' on them yet.  I don't think we have any of the latter but we do have some guys with ML experience who are already on the 40-man roster.  Here they are:

Austin Adams
Shawn Armstrong
Joe Colon
Shawn Morimando
Ryan Merritt

My guess is that you will see Shawn Armstrong and Colon in early September and Adams, Morimando and Merritt after Columbus finishes its playoff run.

As I said, I don't see any other pitchers in the minors who we could bring up

Position Players

The same match applies:  Can you help me in September and/or can you help me in the playoffs.  Teams have brought up speedsters and minor leaguers with big time power, thinking that as a pinch hitter they may help as, respectively, a pinch runner or a pinch hitter.  Here are some thoughts:

Giovanny Urshela - He is a plus defender at 3B.   Having him on the roster would increase the size of the rotation for 3B and OF.   Even if he didn't hit he might still be valuable as a late inning defensive replacement. 

Bradley Zimmer -  He has good speed and would be a good pinch runner and defensive replacement.   Of course he is not on the 40 man roster so we would have to remove someone but with Colin Cowgill available to be DFA'd, that shouldn't present a problem.  BTW Zimmer also go a bump in his performance this summer when he was promoted to AAA so maybe lightning can strike here, as well.    Even if it doesn't, Zimmer can still impact the game with his legs and his glove/arm combination.

Erik Gonzalez -  With Michael Martinez in the majors I just think you leave Gonzalez in the minors and bring him up at the end of the season.

Yandy Diaz - Another guy who would require Cowgill to be removed, he might be a good guy to have around when you need a pinch hitter as his glove is suspect but his bat looks good.   He is a GREAT lightning in a bottle guy, someone who could go through all of Sept and Oct. and give you great ABs because the league doesn't know him

Jesus Aguilar - Like Diaz, a guy without a glove who might be a good ML pinch hitter.  Unlike Diaz, Aguilar IS on the 40-man roster AND he has a little big league experience.

Francisco Mejia -  Don't laugh.   He is the classic lightning in a bottle guy.   I don't know his status for the being available for the Rule 5 this winter but, if he is, bringing up now instead of after the season makes more sense.   Of course, he has to be able to throw as his throwing is important if he is going to be the catcher in any games.

Final thoughts on the Olympics

First, baseball and softball in the Olympics?  The only reason I have ever liked those sports in the Olympics is because the US is good at them and it means more medals. 

This Olympics we had almost twice the number of medals as the next country!  So, no, let's not add baseball and softball back in.  I mean, why not just put American football in the Olympics?

One of the reasons that sports are not added to (or are removed from) the Olympics is because too few countries play them.  The US, in this Olympics, won medals in 25 of the 39 sports contested.   That seems about right to me and maybe a tad high.  So, now, we don't need any other sports added that will up our medal count.     

And what about going back to an all-amateur Olympics?  So it won't be the best players in the world at their sports.   It will be the best players who don't make a living playing that sport. 

Look, over 100 countries participated in the Olympics that didn't win a single medal.   Doesn't that seem a bit odd when the US won 121?  It is just more of the haves and have-nots.  Can't we find a way to level the playing field a little bit.

So, while we revel in the success of the good old USA in the Olympics, let's consider measures that open up the field instead of closing it up.   This is not the Olympics of the US amateur hockey players playing against the veteran Russian team that was, for all practical purposes, a professional team.     If it looks reasonable to do, let's think of going back to amateur-only participation.  The only reason I can see not doing that is that maybe there are still a few countries (China? Cuba?) that have state-run programs whose athletes are banned from playing professionally somewhere due to ideological reasons.   However, if that is not true and everyone has and chooses to use the opportunity to play professionally, maybe this should be amateur hour...once again

BTW, except for a wrestler here, a soccer team there and a track relay team that misfired...again,  this was about the most perfect summer Olympics I can ever remember the US having.   The people who were supposed to set records for medals did.   The teams that were supposed to win, for the most part, won.    And there seemed to be many more people the US didn't think were going to get medals who did compared to those who we thought would get medals who failed..some of them old guys like me!   

So, great job USOC and all the NGBs out there.   And thanks to the US athletes who, to almost the last one, showed that ANY kind of medal was a great accomplishment.   That was a refreshing change from past Olympics where, if we didn't win, it was considered a tragedy.  And thanks to all those who showed that the Olympic spirit was not just about medals.  

See you all in 4 years!

Baseball and Olympic Musings on August 11, 2016

Question: Do you think the families of retired baseball players can get the Olympic appeals committee to look at the cases of Pete Rose, Joe Jackson and Mark McGwire for the Hall of Fame?  If they let a Russian swimmer who has been caught using PEDs two times to compete in an Olympics where a lot of Russian athletes have been banned for doping, maybe they can rationalize the above three players being in the HOF.

Here I was really thinking the Indians caught a break when they sent Frazier to the Yankees and then Zimmer got real hot at Columbus.   Until yesterday when Zimmer got hit on the hand trying to bunt.

Sent this question into Paul Hoynes but I don't think he has answered it yet:  Last year Lindor, as a rookie, reached double figures in sacrifices, home runs and stolen bases.   I wonder when the last time that a rookie has reached double figures on these three incongruous statistical categories (i.e., people who hit HRs usually don't sacrifice much).  Also, since Lindor reached those levels in about half a season, when was the last time that people had this high a level of HRs, stolen bases and sacrifices per AB as a rookie?

This has been an incredibly quiet August in terms of waiver trades.   For the Indians, I just don't think there are players out there that they will trade for that (a) will help them win and (b) will be cheap enough (in prospects) to trade for.  Clearly, though, we need some more offense as it now looks like we won't get Brantley back the entire season.  I was holding out hope that he would be back by Sept. 1st and then we could coast to a division win as he got back in shape just in time for the playoffs.   Now it doesn't look like that will happen.

Does it bother anyone else that Francisco Mejia is really playing sparingly during this hit streak?   I know he is battling an injury but his infrequent play looks like the Indians are just playing him at times they KNOW he has a great likelihood of getting a hit and sitting him other games.   Last weekend he didn't play either Saturday or Sunday when they had an off-day on Monday.  If he is truly injured just DL him.  The hit streak stays intact.  If he is healthy enough to play MOST days, then play him most days.   The hitting streak is a novelty.  His development as a player, which comes from PLAYING, is more important.   BTW, I know I have said this before but look at the guys with the longest hitting streaks in the history of the minor leagues.   Most times they don't end up having any impact on the ML team at all. 

We have seen that we can score 4-5 runs a game which is good when our starting pitching is good.  However, when the starting pitching or the bullpen blows up, we don't seem to have the horses to do anything more than get close.   So, we need to get the starting pitching back on track.   We have everything else we need to compete.

Does it bother anyone else that Andrew Miller has been just mediocre since he has come to the Indians?  It is interesting how the Yankees turned on a dime and traded someone who wasn't supposed to be tradeable.  Now I know we overwhelmed the Yankees with our offer but if Miller is really hurt or burned out....um-um-um, will that ever stink!

Finally, in the category of don't EVER do that again, I was watching the end of the women's time trial cycling.   The organizers had set up a covered area with three chairs marked "1", "2" and "3".  From what I saw the current 1st, 2nd and 3rd place finishers got to sit in those chairs.   Unfortunately, as riders came in with better times the riders in these chairs were bumped to either lower numbers or out of the chairs entirely if they were currently in the "3" chair.    So the American women, the last rider, won the race.   In this tented area the woman who had been sitting in chair "1" and was so excited she might win a gold medal looked deflated as she had to vacate that top chair.   What is worse is that the women in 3rd place put a towel over her face and dejectedly walked away as she lost her bronze medal and had been bumped down to the dreaded 4th place finish.   The cameras caught all of this for the world to see.   I have an idea for the IOC.   Ban this type of thing.   Everyone knows who is in what place in a race like this, the scenario being played in other summer Olympic sports and a lot of winter Olympic sports.  People don't need to be sitting in chairs signifying the medal they may or may not get.   Everyone knows this, the TV monitors show the current standings.    Let's not embarrass people who just had their dreams smashed, dreams that came out of years of sweat.

AZL Indians - August 6, 2016

I am up late working and following the game on milb.com

I absolutely LOVE the team that is one the field tonight.   All of these guys have potential to be true prospects down the road.  Here is tonight's lineup

Samad Taylor
Elvis Perez
Nolan Jones
Jose Vicente

All these guys are currently hitting over .300 and all are young.  This is an exciting top 4.

Will Benson
Oscar Gonzalez
Hosea Nelson
Ulysses Cantu
Connor Capel

4 of the 5 of these guys were top 10 round 2016 draft picks and Gonzalez is one of the gems in our system fresh out of the Dominican Republic. While the production may not always be there so far for this group of 5 guys I think there is a lot to dream on.

Pitching tonight was:

Justin Garcia (last year's draft pick coming back from injury)
Francisco Perez (our best starter this year)
Randy Marte

Again, a lot to dream on here with all these guys having upside.

Right now this team is locked into a 1-1 tie after 8 innings.  Is it just me or is this team the most exciting, potential-wise, that we have ever had in the AZL league?

This would be a game I would love to see live.  Do you think MILB will ever broadcast the AZL games live?  I mean all it would take would be a stadium cam.  With the MiLB box scores being updated faster this year than in the past, I wouldn't even need announcers and I could probably follow along with what was going on. 

You know you are an Indians' fan part deux...

Sorry but I am going to rant.   Are you freakin' kidding me?  We trade away four prospects, probably 3 in our top 30 including our top prospect Clint Frazier, to get a reliever who I have already shown is redundant and then we proceed to lose 4 of 5 games getting blown out in each game when our starting pitching just freakin' collapses.    Each game we fought back and each game our bullpen just dug the hole deeper.   Miller has only appeared in 2 of those 5 games, including our only win, 9-2 vs Minnesota on Thursday afternoon.  

It's almost like other teams were just waiting for us to throw our prospects away before yanking the rug out from under us, leaving us wondering what it would have been like in 5 years had we kept those 4 guys.  I know that's not possible, right?!?!?

Hey, I would rather have Andrew Miller than not have him and I suspect that 5 years from now we might not think as highly of the guys we gave up as we do now.    Still, the timing of this swoon could not have been worse.   If they don't turn this around the Miller trade will be wasted, at least for this year.  Those 4 prospects we gave up will have given in vain.

And immediately after we gave them up did we start pitching like crap, making our three-headed bullpen monster almost worthless and, in the process, losing Danny Salazar to an elbow injury.

The whole freakin' roof is caving in around this team.   The timing could not have been worse.   The Indians are starting to draw fans, fans were starting to believe in this team and we were playing well.

For those of us who thought that good fortune was starting to shine on Cleveland sports well it might be that we get kicked in the groin again, except this time when we were least expecting it. 

Finally, for those of you who want a glass half full analysis, here it is, in three parts:

1. We got to keep the prospects we would have lost in the Lucroy trade.  Imagine if we had made that trade, lost all those additional prospects and STILL tanked it after August 1st, again making it seem like we threw prospects away for nothing. 

2. Almost on queue, other prospects like Bradley Zimmer, Yandy Diaz and Giovanny Urshela have picked up their games to re-strengthen our farm system and make us all more convinced that we can weather the indiscretion that is the Miller trade.  They are not the only prospects who have stepped up since the trade but, given their proximity to the majors, we might yet get an offensive (and defensive) boost from those guys this season and the increased production of other prospects gives us hope for the future.

It just sucks so bad to have this happen to the Indians and their fans.   They deserve better than this kind of luck.  I don't know how this team can let this happen.  I just don't know.  Let's hope this is a dream these guys are having and we all wake up tomorrow and watch them play .600 ball for the rest of the season!

You know you are an Indians' fan when...

...you finally make a blockbuster trade at the deadline and then go 0-2 against the Twins, being outscored like 22-11 and, in the process, lose a guy who is likely your #1 starter.

...you trade for the catcher you need only to have that guy veto the trade

...just when you think you might win the division as the Royals have tanked it, the Tigers get really hot and start making every one of our losses hurt.

Just keep saying to yourself: 'Relax, it's a long season'.

I predicted at the beginning of the season that the Indians would win the WS from a wild card spot.  I stick by that.

Deadline day musings

Have I mentioned that Jonathon Lucroy is an ass?  The worst part is that the Brewers may have made out better in the trade with Texas than in the one with us which is the thing that really hurts here.   Just like most Tribe fans undervalue our players, Brewers' fans overvalue what their players are worth.

Can't really get excited about Brandon Guyer.  I mean the guy is hitting .243.  The guy's age 28, 29 and 30 seasons are his only ones where he has gotten any pro at bats.  Frankly, I am surprised they had to give up two low level minor leaguers for him.  The Indians reverting to their bottom feeding pattern of past years.  His big claim to fame is that he gets hit by pitches at record rates.   Beautiful! 

Now in our OF we have Almonte, Davis, Naquin, Chisenhall and Guyer.  With Ramirez moving to 3B full-time I guess that works.  I guess now that Almonte is hitting a bit we are stuck with him for the remainder of the season.   Too bad.  

So far the best part of today is who isn't with the Indians.

I am glad we did not get Jay Bruce.

I am sorry the Rangers got Beltran.  I am questionably sorry we didn't get him but since he is a right-handed Jay Bruce, I am glad we don't have his defense.  Lucroy plus Beltran really helps Texas.  Actually, just what I didn't want to have happen.  Other team(s) in the AL improving much more than us at the deadline.

Looking at what it cost to get Will Smith, I am glad we didn't go for him.

Probably the biggest news today is that Juan Uribe is gone.   That may be the best news of the day for the Indians.  Again, if you want to send a message to the clubhouse that bad production can't be tolerated, this is as good as any message.

Still, though, that doesn't solve anything.  We still don't have any production out of our catcher and didn't acquire a stud outfielder or third baseman. 

Why the Miller trade was the wrong one to make

Like the rich baseball fan who wanted the Babe Ruth-autographed ball, he didn't have to have it, he just wanted it.

So is the story with the Indians acquisition of Andrew Miller.

He was not what they needed but he was what they wanted.

No one doubts his ability.  No one.  However, we paid dearly for him in prospects.

Here is why this was a bad trade.

We needed a LOOGY.  We didn't get one, although I would say that Miller lessens the need for one.  Miller provides a setup man or closer.  We didn't need either, really.  Here is why: 

Bryan Show is 17-20 in hold situations.  In his 4 losses (including the 3 blown holds) the Indians have scored 11 runs total.  Yes, he blew those holds, but it was the offense that made the game close by not scoring runs.  A few more runs lessens the pressure on Shaw to be perfect.

Cody Allen is 20-22 in save situations.  The Indians won the two games that he blew saves in.  So, from that standpoint, he is perfect in save situations.  His 4 losses came in games he came in with the score tied.  In every one of those games the Indians had a chance to put the game away the inning before Allen pitched and they didn't do it.

So, although our closer and primary setup man are not perfect, they are very effective and could have been even more effective with somewhat better production, especially from the catcher and third base positions. .  

The only two reasons we would NEED Miller are:

a. We have an ineffective or hurt closer or primary setup man (we don't)
b. We have starters who only get us through 6 innings and have ineffective middle relievers and need three shutdown relievers and don't have them.

Even though we have blown a number of holds during this season and the middle relievers are responsible for some of that, it would be a real stretch, looking at their stats, to say McAllister, Manship and Otero are ineffective. 

As far as needing 3 shutdown relievers, here are the results from the current 5 starters in innings pitched:

Corey Kluber: In his 21 starts he has gone 6.2 or more innings 15 times, meaning, if we had the lead we would have needed only two shutdown relievers.  In 5 of the remaining 6 starts he has lost blowouts where having Miller would not have helped.  In one start he went 6 innings and won 7-0, meaning that we likely didn't need 3 shutdown relievers to win that game.

Danny Salazar: In his 20 starts he went 6.2 innings 8 times.  His pitch counts tend to be high in other games and in 6 other starts he either gave up all the runs or enough of the runs where three shutdown relievers would likely not have helped to change the outcome.  In his 6 remaining starts we won 4 of them, meaning that in only two starts is it even possible that having that 3rd shutdown reliever would have changed the outcome.

Carlos Carrasco: In his 15 starts he has gone 6.2 innings or more 5 times.   In the remaining 9 starts the Indians won 6 of those games even though he didn't go very long.  In the three remaining starts he twice gave up more runs than the Indians scored in the entire game.  So, it appears that our relief was not really needed or was effective enough to win his starts almost every time.

Josh Tomlin: In his 19 starts he went 6.2 or more innings 8 times.  In those remaining 11 starts we went 8-3 and in those 3 losses we either got blown out or he gave up more runs in his time on the mound than we scored the entire game.

Trevor Bauer: In his 17 starts he went 6.2 or more innings 7 times.  In his remaining starts he gave up more runs than the Indians scored 3 times and they won 3 other starts.  Thus there were probably 4 starts where we might have needed that 3rd shutdown reliever.

So. looking at the Indians starters, their setup man and their closer and even factoring in the current (and former) middle relievers, there were only a handful of games where the Indians could have used a 3rd shutdown reliever.   I think if we peel the onion back a little more we find that in most of those games if we had prevented a few more runs or scored even 5 runs we would have won a number of those games (a few were blowout losses or wins). 

Look, no one is saying that Andrew Miller won't make this team better.  But having him for 2+ years was NOT worth our top prospect, another in our top 10 and two intriguing throw-in AAA, relatively young, hard-throwing relievers.    Not with holes at LOOGY, catcher and either third base or outfield.  No, this was a bad trade not for who we got or who we gave up but for the fact that the resources we spent should have been used to shore up REAL holes in our team.

And, as I have before, I will end this post by saying that a way to get through to the clubhouse is to dump the totally ineffective Juan Uribe.  He is exactly the type of guy that WAR was created to ferret out. His WAR is -0.4 currently. 

Lucroy is an ass and much more

Lucroy tried to play the trade to his advantage instead of doing the right thing for baseball.   He is an ass.  Hopefully he has no more good luck in baseball. 

Giovanny Urshela should be up with the Indians.   Yandy Diaz can't play third base at the ML level.   He is starting to hit well and I want to see him in the majors.  Maybe they can play him in the OF.  Unfortunately, with his limited experience and Francona's dislike for rookies, I don't see that happening.  I do have to laugh at those who are saying to bring up Diaz.  He is not a third baseman and isn't really ready in the OF, either. 

I am just sick of seeing Juan Uribe.   No one knows that he is good in the locker room.  I don't think that he brings a single thing to this team on or off the field that they actually need to continue to win.

Message to the Indians:  Don't panic and make a stupid trade tomorrow.  Jay Bruce is mediocre and gives us essentially 3 DHs.   In the OF he sucks and might not help much in the AL playoffs.   In the WS we are already down to Napoli or Santana in the NL park, putting Bruce out in the field gives us another defensive liability.   But the main thing is the cost to get him.  He is NOT worth what we were going to pay for Lucroy. 

To all my friends at scout.com all I can say is see you next time!

Well, this sucks...and it makes the Miller trade suck more

Lucroy vetoes the trade which essentially screws our chances of making the World Series and we gave up all those prospects for Miller.  So the loss of those prospects is now a TOTAL waste.  

Wow, what a Sunday!

Well, anyone who ever said the Indians won't go for it when they have a chance is now shut up...for good. 

For those of you who don't want to read the detailed analysis below let me summarize here:  I am OK with the Lucroy trade but the Miller trade is not needed nor does it address the holes in our lineup.   I think we could have used the prospects we used to get Miller and gotten Ryan Braun and Will Allen from the Brewers...and maybe saved a prospect or two as, in my opinion, trading great prospects to one team for essentially two trades (Lucroy and then Braun/Allen) would be cheaper than trading prospects to two different teams where each team had to justify what they were giving up.   Getting Miller was great but it was like collecting duplicates of baseball cards.  Yeah, it's nice to have them but it doesn't really complete your collection, does it?  Unless the Indians KNOW that Brantley is going to come back 100% by the playoffs (and with all the crap going on how COULD they know this) they have spent a lot of prospects and haven't completed what I would consider a Cavaliers-like roster, one so good that it was impossible to keep it out of the Series and, unlike the NBA, with no Golden State-like roster waiting for them in the AL playoffs or World Series.  We gave up a lot, not enough to kill our farm system and we certainly sold high on ALL of the prospects (Sheffield, Frazier, Greg Allen, Feyereisen, Heller, Chang and Mejia), we gave up but for that price we should have finalized our WS lineup with Brantley becoming just icing on the cake instead of a necessary piece like he is now. [BTW, google the longest hit streaks in the history of the minor leagues and see how all of those players ended up...just sayin').

We made ourselves better but I don't think it was enough to keep any of us from sweating the last two months of the season.   I don't even think we separated ourselves significantly from Detroit who could leapfrog over us if they make a daring trade or two before Monday afternoon.\

Now for that deatailed analysis I was talking about:

So assuming the Lucroy trade goes through, let's examine these two trades from both the perspective of what the Indians got and what they gave away.  But let's begin with what the Indians needed going into the deadline.

What the Indians needed:   Look, every team has it weaknesses.   Looking at the Yankees lineup I was saying to myself how could this team compete?  The fact is they can't, even with their lights out bullpen.  Using the Cavaliers as an example, they had five stud players, 4 of whom are used to playing with the ball.   To win two of those other two guys (Love and Smith) had to change their roles totally.  Still, they were/are 5 very good players who almost every team in the league would have as starters.  There were no holes there.  

Coming into this deadline the Indians had 4 needs: situational lefty, outfielder with power if Brantley didn't make it back and a quality third baseman and quality catcher. 

What the Indians got:  The Indians filled one gaping hole in their lineup with Lucroy.   With luck and health he will make a huge difference in their offensive production and how the lineup will set up.   They still have a gaping hole at third base and, frankly, could use a power hitting outfielder.  By not acquiring someone (Ryan Braun, for example) they are essentially counting on Brantley to come back at close to 100% of his ability before the playoffs.   If he is not back or back at 85%, we might as well not have him because an 85% player in the playoffs is much like a 60% player in the regular season.  Not very effective.   Getting Lucroy doesn't help if we have to play Almonte or Uribe.  If either of them are on the playoff roster, let alone getting playing time in the playoffs, I think we are totally screwed.

As far as Miller, getting him was overkill.   We were looking for a situational lefty.  Miller is NOT a situational lefty and at his salary and the cost to get him, he better be our closer.   But we had a closer and an 8th inning guy.   So we paid a steep price to get a guy who was more than what we needed.   We'll talk below about the farm system but the thing to think about here is that we not only lost prospects but we also diminished the role of McAllister, Otero and Manship, who have been good enough over the past two years that we were able to dump the serviceable Chamberlin this year.  Not that Joba was great but on teams without as much bullpen depth as we have, he was a decent piece to a bullpen puzzle.  One thing for sure, Francona LOVES this move as it keeps him from EVER having to pitch a rookie or near-rookie again this season.  Plus it puts the three veterans above in a situation that, if they accept their roles, they become like the Cavalier bench players were: guys who produce when called upon but who are not called upon much.

What we gave up -  OK, let's begin by saying that the Indians paid deadline prices for players.   For all of you who have jousted with me over the years about the Sabathia trade and the Cliff Lee trade where we traded defending Cy Young award winners for pittance, we gave away MUCH more in these trades than we ever got back in those two.   Yeah, we got Brantley back who was not even good enough to be in the original group of players for Sabathia.  He was an add on as the PTBNL in that deal.   Plus, while Carrasco was a good prospect he was enigmatic for the Phils and they were not that unhappy to be rid of him.   On paper, both of those trades sucked.  

In the Lucroy trade we gave up 3 solid prospects.  I will say that we sold high on Mejia and I am pretty sure we sold high on both Chiang and Allen, too.  However, on paper it looks like the Brewers got 3 of our top 30 prospects and maybe two (Chiang and Mejia) of our top 15.  A pretty good haul for a catcher who we only control for about 1.3 seasons. 

In the Miller trade we gave up our best prospect in Frazier and another top 10 prospect in Sheffield.  I will say that I think we sold high on Frazier and I am thinking Sheffield will be a year-to-year guy, meaning he will only advance a level each season and I think it will take him until 2020 before he stays on a big league roster for a full season.  As far as Feyereisen and Heller, these are guys who could turn into Bryan Shaw types or could just be Armstrong/Adams types who never establish themselves.   Clearly the Yankees are more willing to give opportunities to these guys than to the Francona-led Indians.

Final Summary - I think we gave up A LOT in these trades.  Will it kill our farm system?  No.  I think the guys we gave up will only become real contributors about the time the current window is closing in 2019 or 2020.  At the same time, we did not do enough to make this a favorite to make the World Series.  For me, I would have given up the talent we gave up for Miller to get Will Allen and Ryan Braun in addition to Lucroy.   That trade would have given us a place in the World Series.   The two trades we made did not do that.   When you trade away that many prospects you ought to guarantee getting to the WS.   We didn't do that here and I think, down the road, it may cause us to come up a little short.

In summary, let's take a look at our lineup now and what it would have been with Braun and Allen:

Davis - LF
Kipnis - 2B
Lindor - SS
Braun - RF
Santana - DH
Lucroy - C
Napoli - 1B
Ramirez - 3B
Naquin - CF

If you substitute Brantley for Braun you are OK.  However, without either this lineup comes up a little short.  With Brantley AND Braun, even with Davis and Naquin platooning, this lineup is the best in the majors, top to bottom.   To go with the best rotation in the majors and solid, if not spectacular relief (basically substituting Will Allen for Crockett and getting a healthy McAllister back, we would be a WS team.

Looking at our lineup now we have:

Davis LF
Kipnis 2B
Lindor SS
Napoli 1B
Lucroy C
Santana DH
Ramirez 3B
Chisenhall/Almonte RF
Naquin CF

...or worse if Naquin isn't in the lineup.   That lineup, without Brantley, is not good enough to get to the WS and especially not to win it.