Goodbye Aaron Civale!

 The Guardians traded oft-injured Aaron Civale who is:

• At the peak of his value (good thing)
• Who is the top veteran starter on this team in the middle of a pennant race (not good thing)
• In a situation where we need to eat innings to save the young starter's arms (not a good thing)
• Appears to be what a team would do in a white flag kind of trade (not a good thing for team morale)

We got back Kyle Manzardo who is:

• Hurt (not a good thing)
• Left handed (not a good thing with our lineup and farm system)
• Not tall for a 1B man (not a good thing)
• Hitting .148 in AAA vs LH pitching (not a good thing)
• Is only a passable fielding first baseman who has a weak arm (not a good thing)
• Coming to a team where 1B and DH are locked up through 2024 (not a good thing)
• Comes from Tampa Bay who ALWAYS beats us in trades (not a good thing)

Right now, this trade appears to suck.  The only thing that is a positive is that we traded Civale at the peak of his value.  Every other bullet above is a negative.  Eleven bullets, 10 of them are negative.   

Get the message.  The Guardians screwed this move, too.  They are giving up on this season.   Next thing will be Francona retiring right now and turning the team over to Hale for the rest of the season.  This time, though, he won't be coming back, given the mess this is turning into.  The rest of the rats will start leaving the sinking ship starting this off-season.  This is a mess and will only get worse given the pathetic 2022 and 2023 drafts and trades like this.

Noah Syndergaard - What's The Over/Under

 OK, tonight begins the Noah Syndergaard era in Cleveland Guardians' history.  

I really have trouble typing that with a straight face as we all understand that this is a hail mary/shot-in-the-dark/throw-it-against-the-wall-and-hope-that-it-sticks sort of move that likely is just window dressing to not piss off fans that we gave Rosario away for nothing and are still paying the equivalent of his salary for that privilege.   

But it begs the question;  How long will Noah Syndergaard be a Cleveland Guardian? 

Thinking back, Pablo Sandoval, Alexi Ogando, Tom Gorzelany, Gavin Floyd, Brett Myers come to mind as veterans with good resumes who were brought into help or as balancing for trades that were made and who made little impact.  Kerry Wood represents another tier, famous guys who were brought into help and helped at least a little.

So where are we with Syndergaard?  Well, I thought I would do a little gambling thing here and establish and over/under for his time with the Guardians.  (no actual gambling or wagering is intended, just a sense of how long we will be seeing Mr. Syndergaard).

So, the over/under I am establishing is September 1st.   That is, do you think that Syndergaard will be active with the Guardians ML team (i.e., not counting DL time)?

How many of you are taking the over (he will be active past September 1st) or the under (he will be released or put on the IL for the rest of the season) before September 1st.

Personally, my heart is rooting for the "over" but I think, with what he has said so far (blaming at least part of his struggles on bad coaching) that we are looking at the "under", with him being toast in this organization before September 1st.

Make me look bad, Noah.   This organization needs you to help us out for the rest of the season, not with excuses or days on the DL, but with 6- and 7-inning starts and more wins than losses in those starts.

Can you do that for us?  Heaven knows, looking at the list above, that we haven't had much luck with that in the past and, recently, this FO has not had any aptitude at making trades.  

So, readers of this forum, what do you think?  Are you taking the over or the under here?

There is 'a buyer's market' ...and then there is 2023

 I have been following the trade deadline activity obviously hoping the Guardians either:

A. Rob somebody 

or

B. Keep the heck out of the chaos.

But what I have seen already is unprecedented, in my opinion.  Contenders are just robbing non-contenders.  Sort of like Robin Hood robbing the poor and giving to the rich.  Please feel free to substitute whatever person/company/government agency you for Robin Hood that you think is appropriate.  

But I digress.

Let's get back to the chaos that is the 2023 trade deadline in MLB where the rich are getting richer and the poor are, well, getting robbed.

• In my poster child for this trade deadline, the Royals traded Nicky Lopez to Atlanta for Taylor Hearn.  Nobody is going to confuse Lopez with Jose Ramirez or even with Amed Rosario, but Lopez has real value as a 26th man to a team like Atlanta.  Using the analogy I have used in the past to talk about David Fry, I would rather have Lopez than Michael Martinez as my last batter in the 7th game of the WS, although the margin for Lopez over Martinez is much slimmer.   Off-loading Lopez and his close to $3 million salary is not the problem.  It is the return the Royals received.  Taylor Hearn had recently been DFA'd by Texas who sold him to Atlanta who then put him in a game (0.1 IP, 4 ER) and then sent him to the minors...all in the space of a week.  It is this 28-year old AAAA , replacement-level pitcher that Atlanta traded for Lopez, basically meaning that whatever they get from Lopez, even one GW hit for the rest of the season, will make Lopez MUCH more valuable than Hearn will ever be. 
• Ranal Grichuk and CJ Cron to the Angels for Jake Madden and Mason Abright.  Now, again, these are rental players for LA but the return for these quality rental players are guys who are a long way away from the majors (est. 2026 by MLB Pipeline) and are not good prospects, slotting in at #20 and #21 in a mediocre Rockies farm system.   I know the Angels are on the periphery of the Wild Card race but Grichuk and Cron really can help the Angels in starting roles this year and two starting players, even ones on expiring contracts, is worth more than two B level prospects who are a long way away from the majors.
• Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton and bonus international slot money for the upcoming international signing period (amount unknown) for John King, Thomas Saggese and Tekoah Roby.  On paper, for two expiring contracts, this doesn't seem like a bad return, with Roby slotting in immediately as the #4 prospect and Saggese at #8 for the Cardinals.  The two kickers are that Roby has not pitched since the beginning of July and that the Cardinals had to pony up international slot money to make this deal happen.  The latter is even more concerning as international slot money is more valuable than actual cash as losing it could limit the quality of players you can sign in the next international signing period this coming January.    The fact that Cardinals had to give ANY money to make this deal happen, a deal in which they got back an injured player and a super utility prospect is interesting to me.  The inclusion of journeyman King just makes this deal more  eye-rolliing as he is just somewhat north of a AAAA pitcher and doesn't appear to be bringing much, if any, present or future value to the Cardinals except as a warm body to take Stratton's spot for the rest of the season.
• Max Scherzer and a bunch of cash for AA prospect Luisangel Acuna.  Don't get me wrong.  Acuna is a very good prospect, but we are talking about Max Freaking Scherzer here, signed for this year and next.   Plus Acuna is a SS and will have to slide to 2B as the Mets have a SS for like the next 10 years!  This looks like a salary dump by the Mets and, once again, the Rangers get to underpay for a stud pitcher under control for 1.4 years in a situation where the Astros are breathing down their collective neck and they are in dire straits as far as starting pitching.  Heck, the Guardians got more for the expiring contract of CC Sabathia than this, and the Guardians got robbed in that trade (like ANYONE knew that the PTBNL in that trade would turn out to be someone the quality of Michael Brantley).
• Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez for Edgar Quero and Ky Bush.  While Quero and Bush are highly ranked prospects WITHIN the Angels' system they are NOT highly ranked prospects ad they were not even in the top 100 prospects in baseball and it likely wasn't even close as the top Angels prospect was ranked 63rd in all of baseball (even the depleted by graduation Cleveland farm system had 4 prospects ranked higher than 63rd overall).    Even for expiring contracts, the Angels made out MUCH better in this trade than the White Sox did.
• Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly for Nick Nastrina, Jordan Leasure and Trayce Thompson.  Thompson as a AAAA player is really just a throw-in to this deal.  So looking at the rest of the trade, the Dodgers got two veteran rentals for the cost, realistically, of Nastrini, the #10 prospect for the Dodgers at the time of the trade (#4 for the depleted WS farm system after the trade) and a minor league reliever lottery ticket in Leasure.  As I have been following the Dodgers' farm system closely this year I can tell you that Nastrini is clearly a second tier prospect, likely to be of Tanner Burns level to put it in perspect and Leasure looks to me like Cade Smith.   While Lynn and Kelly may NOT help the Dodgers at all this year, even if they both crater it won't be like, in my opinion, that Dodgers fans will look back in 4 year and rue this trade as I don't think Nastrini or Leasure will develop into anything more than a #4 starter and middle reliever, if they reach their potential.
• Kendall Graveman for Korey Lee - While you might consider that Graveman is not worth the $8 million he will be paid next year, Korey Lee is a middling prospect (now #13 in the White Sox system) for a year and a half of Graveman.  You can debate this one if you like but it is not like the White Sox robbed Houston on this one.

SUMMARY

Teams that trade for veterans at this time of year often get burned as either the veteran doesn't help their playoff run or, even if they do, their addition is not enough to get the team to the playoffs and they have, essentially, wasted minor league resources for what ends up to be the same result if they had not made the trade.  In my opinion, this year more than any year I can remember in the past, there will be no short-term or long-term buyers' remorse by the contenders who made these trades.  (Compar to the buyers' remorse we had AT THE TIME when we traded Junior Caminiero for Tobias Myers).  That, alone, makes this buyer's market much more heavy for the buyers, almost comically in some cases, than it has ever been before.  And I thought the CC Sabathia trade was a joke!

I am glad the Guardians have stayed out of this mess, mostly, so far.  at least with Syndergaard we bought a lottery ticket that might help save some our minor league arms the rest of this season., even though I think the chances that the Dodgers are helped more by this trade than the Guardians.  

I hope the Guardians stay out of this mess for the rest of the season and, for that matter with our front office, in the future.  

Zeroes Across The Board!

 Bet some of you were thinking this was going to be a post about last night's game.  While it could have been as this is the type of game that a contender needs to win and, in the short term last night I was elated about not losing ground to the Twins who were walked off by KC, this morning I was hit by the fact that we could have gained a game on the Twins AND increased our chances of making the playoffs by beating a rebuilding team while the Twins lost to another one.

But, no, this post is not about winning or losing a game in July.

It's about how we got to this point.  

I looked back over all the transactions, big and small, that the Guardians have been involved in since the end of the 2020 season and, lo and behold, basically we have had ZERO transactions that were more than slightly positive for this franchise with many being negative and some really negative.  Here's the list I constructed.  I apologize in advance if I forgot any significant transaction.

Winners

• David Fry for JC Mejia
• Michael Kelly - free agent
• Daniel Norris - free agent
• Enyel De Los Santos - free agent
• Bryan Shaw - free agent
• 2021 draft

Neutral or Undecided

• Myles Straw for Phil Maton and Yainer Diaz
• Cesar Hernandez for Konnor Pilkington
• Peyton Battenfield for Jordan Luplow and DJ Johnson
• Carlos Vargas for Ross Carver 
• Anthony Gose - free agent
• Alex Call waived
• Franmil Reyes waived
• Bobby Bradley waived
• Yu Chang waived
• Bradley Zimmer for Anthony Castro
• Daniel Johnson waived
• 2020 draft

Losers

• Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco for Amed Rosario, Andres Gimenez, Josh Wolf and Isaiah Greene
• Jumior Caminiero for Tobias Myers
• Eddie Rosario for Pablo Sandoval
• Amed Rosario for Noah Syndergaard
• Josh Bell signing
• Mike Zunnino signing
• Cam Gallagher signing
• Owen Miller for cash trade
• Will Benson for Justin Boyd and Steve Hajjar 
• Nolan Jones for Juan Brito
• Ben Gamel waived
• Jose Fermin for cash
• Kyle Nelson waived
• Every other minor league free agent signed from Jan 2021 to the present
• 2022 and 2023 drafts

Teams like the Guardians cannot spend their way out of mistakes by signing expensive free agents.  They must draft, sign international free agents, trade and sign minor league free agents effectively.  This team has been pathetic at this over the last 2+ years and is surviving on the 2020 Clevinger trade, what they got out of the 2021 Lindor trade and existing draftees and international signings from 2018 and before.  But look at the list above. The Guardians front office has let us down and, without Francona holding it all together, their ineptness would have been even more exposed.  I mean, the shining trade over the past 2+ years was getting 26th man David Fry!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Even looking at the most recent Amed Rosario trade, the Dodgers got significant present value while the Guardians got headcase Noah Syndergaard who likely won't even make it to September before he is released.  Now I understand that trading Rosario was necessary but, as I suspected, the FO was, once again, convinced that THEIR players sucked and were worth nothing and were only worth leftovers.  So, while I commend the Guardians for their gamble on Syndergaard who represents someone who might be able to eat innings for a month or two, it is clear that the Guardians stand only a small chance of winning this trade and a large chance of losing it.

You can say what you want about our player evaluation process but it is an undisputable fact that, no matter how good that process appears to be on paper, it sucks in practice and that failure will impact the Guardians for years after those who perpetrated it on Guardians fans have moved on to other jobs.

So, for those of you thinking that we should make any deadline deals this year or, for that matter, ANY deals in the next year or so, hope against hope that we don't because, from the above list, you can see that iti is very likely to HURT this franchise as opposed to helping it.

So, good luck to the 2023 Guardans on the rest of the season.  I think they still have a good chance of winning this year and maybe even for the next couple of years after that, given the state of our division.  However, this bad FO management WILL come back to hurt this franchise and, without a lot of luck in the development of our current prospects, for MANY years to come.

Thoughts For A Wednesday Night - New Starting SS Edition

 1. Let's talk about the trade today where Amed Rosario and Noah Syndergaard changed teams.

• Dodgers fans, players and the FO have to see this as a relief.   First, they can all stop wringing their hands about whether Syndergaard will ever pitch effectively.  That now becomes Cleveland's problem.    The Dodgers get a new shiny toy who they haven't seen play yet and so there is renewed hope there.  
• For the Guardians, we needed starting pitcher help and there was no better way to get it than to trade an expiring contract for an expiring contract and make it so neither team would owe any more money than if they just had released the player.  
• In summary it is likely that the Dodgers get more benefit out of this trade than the Guardians do.  It is a bold gamble by the Guardians that Syndergaard has ANYTHING left in the tank but, if he does have enough to give us passable/extended starting pitching that doesn't tax the bullpen going forward and we get more wins than losses when he starts, that is a plus.  If he doesn't, it shows how little value Rosario had at the time of the trade.
• Plus, we get to see Oscar Gonzalez.

2. We still have to hold our collective breaths over the next several days that the FO doesn't trade Rocchio for a handful of magic beans...or a power-hitting rental.   While Rocchio doesn't have a lot of power, his MLB Pipeline power grade is a 50.  We have so many middle infielders with power grades between 20 and 40 throughout our system (including at least 2 from the 2023 draft) that Rocchio even approaching average ML power would be a huge plus for this team. Plus, instead of (I hope) getting a power hitter rental who costs us prospect(s), we get to see Oscar Gonzalez.

3. This SHOULD have been a good day for Jose Ramirez.  Two HRs, a good win over KC.  But I think it was probably one of the worst days of his professional career.  First, his brother retires , ending his dream of being a ML player and then his best friend on the Guardians is traded.  Not like both of these outcomes were unexpected but to happen on the same day.  Off-field things, to be sure, but still I am sure they impacted him.  

4. The White Sox traded Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez tonight for the Angels' #2 and #3 prospects.  That sounds impressive until you understand that the Angels have only ONE player in the top 100 prospects in baseball.  They basically got what would be 2nd tier prospects in the Guardians organization.   So that is the price of rentals as set so far in this trading deadline period.  Not as much as I would have thought.  

5.  What the Guardians' announcers were saying today about the hitting coaches telling Arias something like that he should be less timid and really attacking hitting was really interesting.  Interesting because Manning said exactly what I was thinking in that moment - he's a major leaguer, isn't that what he is supposed to do?  I still think they should send him down to Columbus until September 1st and give Rocchio ABs and game time until then.  It is just ominous how they are freezing out Rocchio...similar to what they did with Nolan Jones before they gave him away last winter (NOTE: I like Juan Brito as a hitter but anyone who says that was even close to being an even trade really isn't being honest with themselves).

6.  David Fry.  What can you say?  But I encourage all fans to remember that all David Fry is, on a WS contender, is the best 26th man in baseball.  As you increase his importance and his usage his worth actually will go down.   I have seen Casey Blake's name mentioned.  Good comp, IMHO.  but, still, imagine a team where Blake would have just good enough to be the 26th or 26th man.  THAT would have been a great team and that is what we should be striving for.  That is going to be best for Fry and best for the long-term competitiveness of the Guardians.

7. Guardians Prospective listed all the middle infield prospects we have in the organization.  I went back and looked and here is what I find:

• Power grades of 20-40, Mooney, Knapczyk, Fox, Furman, Tolentino, Valdes, Benjamin
• Power garde of 45: Genao, Martinez, Brito, Tena, Frias, Francisca, Freeman, Devers
• Power grade of 50+ (ML average): Rocchio, Arias

Two things about this list: We have a bunch of middle infield prospects with way below ML average power and only two who have ML average power.  None with even a little above average power.  

Add this to how many outfield prospects/MLers we have with below average power and it is concerning.   I imagine some stats guy has done this calculation but I wonder how many games we would win if we had 9 guys like the 2023 version of Steven Kwan in our batting order.  It would be an interesting simulation.

"Don't Swing...NO"

 When Chicken Little comes to bat in the 9th inning of the championship game his coach and the players urge him no to swing...especially with the team's star player coming up next. 

Although this post could be a follow-on to the previous one about keeping the line moving it is not.

This post has to do with the trade deadline.  

Our FO should not 'swing' at all.  They should stand there, through the trade deadline, with their bats on their shoulders.

You see, just like Chicken Little, they haven't earned the right to swing their bat.  

Doing something out of desperation is not doins somethng positive.  How many times has history proven that with deadline deals?  

Yes, just like Chicken Little, you can close your eyes and swing and sometimes you will even get a hit.  But the smart play is to play to your strengths.

And trading prospects is not a strength of this organization.

Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminiero, Nolan Jones, Will Benson.  The list goes on and on..

And, right now, the stage has been set.  Brayan Rocchio (who, BTW, fits the contact-over-power approach that the Guardians draft gurus covet!!!!) has not been recalled even though we could use more offense.  Ditto for Oscar Gonzalez and James Karinchak, both of whom appear to be in the club's doghouse.  Tyler Freeman is playing sporadically even though he is hitting well and plays solid defense.

Four prospects/young major leaguers who are being dissed by the organization for supposed faults in their game while Gabriel Arias is still on the ML roster.  Are they just keeping these prospects down in the minors while they work on their game?  Or have they already made a decision that these guys are not Cleveland Guardians and that it is best to trade them for whatever they can get?  

I am not sure but, with the ineptitude of this FO, if I am Dolan I am calling for a moratorium on trading, except, of course, for short-timer Amed Rosario.

Help your offense from within: send down Arias and bring up Rocchio.  DFA Cam Gallagher, bite the bullet with David Fry as your backup catcher and bring up Oscar Gonzalez.  Yes, under most managers this would mean that Fry would play less often but, as the 26th man, I think he is being overused right now as Francona tries to ride the hot hand...as opposed to not playing Fry over his first month with the team. Reminded me of Wilfred Brimley in that first month.  'I have to take him, but it don't mean I have to play him...ever.'

So, no, don't swing for the fences, literally or figuratively, at the trade deadline.  Don't trade veterans (except for Rosario) for prospects and don't, under any circumstances, trade prospects for veterans.  You guys are a great FO but you suck at two things: trading prospects for veterans and, in the last two years, drafting.  

Keep the Line Moving

 I know this is a common baseball expression, just like get 'em on, get 'em over and get 'em in.  But I have been hearing it more often recently, especially with my wife's favorite team, the Cardinals.  

I heard the Guardians announcers mention it today and it occurred to me that the only way this works is with a team-first-trust-the-next-guy mentality.  

Some of our players don't have that, specifically Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor.

Look, yesterday we were set up for a big, come-from-behind rally against Philadelphia in the 10th.  Until Jose Ramirez saw 6 pitches, all balls, and swung at them all ending with a pathetically short fly ball to right.  The was followed by Josh Naylor not coming through, ending with a popup.

This is not the first time this season that, in clutch situations, the pitchers threw nothing but balls to Ramirez and Naylor who swung wildly and made outs when keeping the bats on their shoulders would have scored runs and extended rallies.  

Instead, they tried to do too much, do it all themselves and...failed.  

Ditto for tonight.  Neither came through in the clutch.  Both left crucial runs on base and failed to get hits when needed.   

This is a manager thing.  The manager has to set the tone, even with his star players.  They cannot be above the team-first-keep-the-line-moving mentality a team like the Guardians need to have.

Hey, I am not giving up on this team.  I won't give up on them until they are officially eliminated from the playoffs and then, I will only give up on them making the playoffs THIS year.

But the attitudes have to change.  Ramirez and Naylor, no matter how good they are, are NOT above the team. Naylor getting picked off, Ramirez making an error that resulted in a run, those things can be forgiven.  But trying to do too much on a team that needs everyone to do JUST enough is inexcusable for your star players.  Just like it is inexcusable for Francona to NOT set the tone that EVERYBODY has to keep the line moving.

2023 Amateur Draft - What My Mock Draft Would Have Cost Us - More Value At The Same Cost

 OK, the signings are essentially all in and here is what my 2023 mock draft would have cost us based on what my draftees signed for:

1. Hursten Waldrep: $ 3 million

2. Jack Gelof: $1.33 million

2C. Joe Whitman: $805,580

3. Levi Wells: $500,000

4. MIchael Carico: $400,000

5. Jace Bohrofen: $302,200

6. Alex Mooney: $1 million

7. Ross Dunn: $150,000

8. Blake Dickerson: $500,000***

9. Matt Etzel: $167,000

10, Tanner Witt: $1,020,000

11. Johny Tincher: $125,000

12. Keegan Zinn: $150,000

13. Jacob Bresnahan: Would not be able to sign unless Witt did not sign and then sign for $375,000

14. Zane Morehouse: $150,000

15. Kyle Scott: $150,000

16. Mac Heuer: Could not sign if signed Tanner Witt or $750,000 if Witt Does not sign

17. Barrett Riebock: $150,000

18. Matt Jachac: $150,000

19. Josh Harlow: $110,000

20. Ryan Marohn: Could not sign if signed Tanner Witt or $450,000 if Witt does not sign

*** - Substituted Blake Dickerson for Camoren Flukey (per my mock draft post) as Flukey was unsignable and Dickerson, another HS pitcher, did sign.

SUMMARY

Cleveland spent $9,178,375,000 on their draft, not counting penalties.

Assuming we signed Witt for just over $1 million, my mock draft would cost us: $9,174,780.

So we could have gotten more highly-ranked and better players for the same cost as Cleveland actually did with their pathetic 2023 draft.

Makes it even harder to justify what the Guardians did this year in the 2023 amateur draft.  In my opinion, they really need to justify to the fans in Cleveland why they drafted who they did, when they did and what they paid them.   This makes me even madder than I was, knowing we could have had better talent for the same or smaller cost.

2023 Amateur Draft - Signing Update - July 22, 2023 - A look At the Numbers

 Here are the numbers from the Guardians 2023 Draft

• 19 of 21 draft picks signed.  Only 2 not signed (Heuer and Marohn) were the toughest signings, 2 HS draftees taken in the late rounds after all the excess bonus pool had already been spent, limiting them to a $150,000 bonus if they wanted to sign.  Definition of 'flyer' picks in case other over-slot bonus signings did not happen.

• Total draft budget alloted before draft: $8,743,800

• Total money (first 10 rds plus overage in rds 11-20) spent on bonuses:   $9,178,375,000

• Total amount spent over draft budget: $434,575

• Penalties on amount spent over draft budget: $326,000

• Total draft spending (budget + overage + penalties) - $9,504,575

Just for comparison sake here are a couple of other numbers:

• Total expected spend (first 10 plus overage 11-20) based on slot for prospect's rank): $6,999,000

• My projected spend on for these draft picks: $8,695,300

Once the deadline for signing players has past and all the data is in, I will post what my spend would have been picking from my mock draft

Analysis - There are two premises to consider.  Was this a good draft?  Was this draft worth the money we spent on it?  Let's look at each of these:

• My opinion is well-known.  I think this was a terrible draft.

• As far as whether the draft funding was appropriate for the players drafted, based solely on their MLB Pipeline pre-draft rankings we should have spent $7 M on this draft.  With the bonuses and penalties, we spent $9.5 M on this draft.  

Now, people will always say that you can't judge a draft so early.  I disagree with that, based on the type and ranking of the players we drafted.   But even if you want to give the Guardians the benefit of the doubt that their scouts are so much better than the rest of baseball, this draft should have cost us, solely based on player rankings, $2.5 M less than it actually cost us, all things considered.  If we paid what the players were worth, included in those savings would have been not having to pay a penalty of $326,000 for the privilege of signing these players.

Time will tell if I am right or I am wrong about these players and how my mock draft players develop compared to the Guardians' actual draftees but one thing is certain: we way overpaid for these draftees compared to what their talent is.  By about $2.5 million.  That money could have been used to draft and sign a couple of HS flyers like they did last year.  Not saying that would have gone well but we at least would have had that money to play with for flyer picks.

Again, time will tell but if this draft ends up sucking, based on what we have seen with the 2022 draftees so far, these two drafts could have huge negative impact on the strength of our farm system for years to come.

Could The 2021 Draft Be Our Best Draft Ever?

 OK, I posted earlier that in my opinion our best draft ever was in 1972 but that the 2016 draft which gave us Jones, Benson, Bieber, Civale, Plesac, Julian Merrywether, Samad Taylor and Connor Capel, likely will surpass it and easily become our best draft ever once all is said and done.

But what about the 2021 draft? Does it have a chance to displace 2016?  

NOTE: Players from the 2021 draft do not have to be protected from the Rule 5 until after the 2024 season (if they were college draftees) or 2025 season (if they were HS draftees).  So, although Williams and Bibee are already in the majors, we are still a long way away from determining if any of the rest of these guys would warrant being protected from the Rule 5 in the future.  For simplicity, just add a level (e.g., AA to AAA) for any of the guys below and you wll get where, minimally, they end up after next season.  It is optimal that guys are in AAA the year they are first Rule 5 eligible with AA less optimal, A+ being problematic (might not get to the majors before their minor league options run out) and A+ is REALLY problematic (unlikely to get to the majors before their minor league options run out).

Well, we are early in the process but here are some numbers so far:

•  There have been 17 players from the 2021 draft who have played in the majors so far and the Guardians have 2 of them (Williams and Bibee).  Cincinnati and Atlanta also have 2 each.
• Already 7 of our other draftees have reached AA, meaning they should be established in AAA by the end of next season.  Our top HS prospect is in A+ and most of the rest of our college draft picks are in A+ ball and performing well, meaning a promotion to AA before the end of the season is not out of the question, meaning they still have a chance to be in AAA by the end of next season, the first time they will be eligible for the Rule 5, whch is optimal.
• The Guardians drafted 18 college pitchers, 1 HS pitcher, 1 HS position player and 1 college position player in the draft.  Here is the breakdown, by round, of where those players are in our system
• 1st round - Cleveland - #1 prospect in Cleveland system - MLB Pipeline
• 2nd round - AA - #25 prospect in Cleveland system - MLB Pipeline
• 2nd round - CBB - AA - #24 Prospect In Cleveland system - Guardians Perspective
• 3rd round (HS) - A+ - #8 Prospect in Cleveland Guardians System - MLB Pipeline
• 4th round - A+ (injured most of career)
• 5th round - Cleveland - #4 prospect in Cleveland system - MLB Pipeline
• 6th round - A+
• 7th round - AA - #27 prospect in Cleveland system - MLB Pipeline
• 8th round - A+
• 9th round - AA - #30 prospect in Cleveland system - MLB Pipeline
• 10th round - AA
• 11th round - AA
• 12th round - AA
• 13th round - AA
• 14th round - A+
• 15th round - A+
• 16th round - Rookie ball (injured entire career)
• 17th round - A+
• 18th round - (HS) Rookie ball
• 19th round - A+
• 20th round - Rookie ball (injured entire career)

In summary, 6 of our draftees are ranked in our top 30 prospects by MLB Pipeline.  Only one of those prospects, Tommy Ventimiglia, looks bad as a draft pick so far.  Three of our draft picks have had their careers derailed by injury.  All the rest of our draft picks are either in AA or A ball and they all show varying degrees of promise but, from what I see, 18 of our 21 draft are either in the majors or have a decent chance of making the majors at some point, based on their success so far.  Those numbers are HUGE compared to an average draft year.  

Whether this draft is our best ever will depend on the longevity of Williams and Bibee and whether any of our other picks are more than just cup-of-coffee major leaguers if they even get that far.

Certainly, the early return on this draft, first pick to last pick, are looking very good right now.  Which is good because the 2022 and 2023 drafts suck!

Thoughts for a Friday - Critical Series This Weekend Edition

 1. Why is Oscar Gonzalez not on this roster and in the starting lineup tonight?  I am really starting to wonder if Jose is controlling the decisions on this team or if Francona is just that stupid and has the ear of the front office.  

2. Gabriel Arias keeps getting opportunities when he continues to stink.  Oscar Mercado, Owen Miller, etc.  Guys who don't earn playing time continuing to get it.

3. I love David Fry as a 26th man.  He isn't a starter in the major leagues, though.  He is a great 26th man.  If he starts once or twice in a week (depending on the situation) and gets 150 ABs a year that is plenty for a guy like him.  Francona is starting him way too much.

4. Why is Tyler Freeman not in the lineup.  I know.  It's because they never trained him in the OF and they want Gimenez at 2B.

5. Regarding Gimenez, he needs to hit the ball better than in the .240s and with some power to be what this team needs.

6. Guys who should not be on the team after August 1: Rosario, Gallagher, Arias, maybe Straw.

7. Guys who should be on the team after August 1 who aren't right now: Rocchio, Gonzalez, Karinchak.

8. Most likely to be traded IF we get a good return:  Civale (think Tyler Mahle return), Rosario, Gallagher (bring up Lavastida).  I would trade Straw but we don't want to be left with Brennan as the only CFer we have.  

9. I love Curry but Cantillo should get the next open starting spot, if it lines up.  Or it should be Battenfield, if he is off the DL in time.

10. The draft signing deadline is coming up in 4 days.  Least excited about this signing day ever.  Best prospect after the 10th round for us is Mac Heuer.  Not a top prospect in the country but has a huge fastball.  Look to see if we sign him.  Unlikely but, if we do, it will require a large bonus.  

Is There A Trade Proposal That Works For Us?

In order to answer the titled question let's first examine the state of our roster and farm system and how our ML roster will look in 3-5 years:

Starting Pitching -  In 3-5 years the only starters who project to be here from our ML roster are Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee and Logan T. Allen.  Looking at our prospects there is currently only one prospect, Joey Cantillo, in our entire ML system who looks like an effective starting pitcher.   The rest have a lot of warts on them, starting with Justin Campbell's surgery which hides the fact that his FB was really below ML average in college and all of the other injury (McKenzie, Espino, Zibin, Webb), the lack of performance (Messick, Carver)/wildness (Nikhazy, Hajjar)/below ML average repertoire (Will Dion, Mace, Burns, Boone) and the total lack of international FA pitching prospects in our full-season ball teams.

Bottom line: Trading Cantillo, who is far from a sure thing, is not really an option given the bad drafts in 2022 and 2023 and the lack of other draftees from the 2022

Middle Infielders - Look, we are flush with middle infield prospects.  In 3 years we can project to still have Gimenez and every one of our middle infield prospects who don't wash out along the way (e.g., Gabriel Arias).  We are set on the middle infield even if none of Brito, Martinez, Tena, Furman, Genao, etc. work out.  If 1 or 2 of them do, well, the more the merrier/trade bait situation then exists.  Further down the system we have many young middle infield types including banjo-hitting 2023 draftee, Christian Knapczyk and also Alex Mooney.

Bottom line: There are plenty of MIF to populate the team in 3-5 years so a trade here should be possible.  The key is WHICH guy(s) to trade and given our pathetic record in trades aside from the Clevinger and Kluber trades and our recent disasters (Miller, Jones, Benson, Caminiero and Vargas trades) do you really think the FO will know which ones to trade?

Outfielders - We have Kwan and that is it for full-time starters.  Straw and Brennan have warts.  Oscar Gonzalez is still a question mark but only because he rots in Columbus instead of being promoted, Arias and Fry are not full-time players and especially not full-time outfielders.  On the prospect side there is Valera who is still a question mark due to injury and the fight, Halpin whose medocre performance as a way under age player in AA (compare to Bo Naylor at the same age) masks whether he will be a good ML player and the pathetic draft choices/trade acquisitions (Lampe, Boyd).  Besides Gonzalez we also have DeLauter, Noel and Pries who still have question marks by their name.

Bottom line: We need a power hitting outfielder but before we TRADE for one we need to see if Gonzalez, Valera, Noel, Halpin or Pries will work out.  A trade for a power hitting OFer is possible but I would hate to sell low on these 4 guys.  If we can keep the first 3 I am OK with losing Pries as a throw-in and Halpin as a more main piece of the trade bring in the ML power hitting RFer who has to be here for 3 years minimum and up to 5 years.

Corner Infielders/DH - In 3-5 years I see Ramirez still at 3B and Naylor at 1B.  But DH? If Gonzalez and Noel develop I think we have that covered but that is a big if as Franmil Reyes will tell you.  We have no other corner infielders in our system who project to have power.  Maybe Brito as the DH in that time, maybe.

Catcher - We have one catcher, Bo Naylor, and one question mark, Bryan Lavastide, likely to help us in 3-5 years.  While other guys (e.g., Mical Ramirez) might come out of the woodwork, it is likely we don't have any prospect depth at catcher for 3-5 years, at least.  Fry is a valuable, valuable player on this team going forward and should be, amazingly, be considered untouchable due to his skills and position versatility.

Bottom line: In the best case Lavastida grabs the backup catcher job and Fry is your 26th man and 3rd catcher.  

Bullpen - These guys are fungible but we always seem to develop them and in 3-5 years we still should have a deep collection of bullpen guys.  

Bottom line: If you had to take a leap of fatih you could easily see trading current bullpen pieces Sandlin, Morgan or Herrin as a significant part of a trade and not hurt your bullpen depth significantly.

Summary - So, what we are left with are guys I consider tradeable now:

Aaron Civale, Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, Myles Straw, Amed Rosario, Tena, Martinez, Halpin, Sandlin, Morgan, Herrin, Pries.

This winter, depending on health and what happens the rest of this season, you can add Bieber and Gimenez to this list.  

These are the guys you can trade.  Freeman obviously only goes as part of a package if we get a stud ML player back

If we can obtain  Dylan Carlson for Civale, Sandlin and Tena I do that trade.

If we can obtain  Lane Thomas I would give up Gabriel Arias and Tanner Burns

If we can get Jordan Walker I would give up Civale, Sandlin, Herrin and Tena.

If we can get Michael Busch I would give up Civale, Straw, Rosario and Herrin.

There are many more trade possibilities out there but you get the picture.

Trade Chips

 The more nervous I am about a subject the more often I post on it.  I guess it makes me feel better to think that I have made a point even though the reason I have my own blog is because it is important to me to say what I am thinking knowing that very few people read it.   Cathartic is the word that comes to mind.

So, that being said and with the rumors I have seen floated even by people who follow the Guardians I wanted to put in my two cents about who we should trade

Middle Infielders

Amed Rosario - The key, to me, is what you get in return.  I think he should be traded but if teams treat the Guardians like they are doing us a favor taking Rosario's salary off our hands then I walk away.  In fact, I send Rosario to AAA if I want to play my younger middle infielders.  So, if you have to throw up your hands and catch yourself saying, before you make the trade "He had no trade value" you just don't make the trade. Keep Rosario and don't trade any mddle infielder except Arias as, next year, you will need all those guys.  If you go any other route, I think you becoming the mini-me San Diego Padres.

Andres Gimenez - If there is one middle infielder I would trade without blinking, given a good return, it would be Gimenez.  He is slick, to be sure, but we have plenty and he is a proven major leaguer.  Teams would be crazy not to want him if they have a middle infield need.  The question becomes are they crazy enough to give us the return we got for Clevinger, or in that range? 

Gabriel "The Arm" Arias - I once heard that it that it was better to keep quiet and have people think you are an idiot than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.  It would have been great if Arias had just been productive at AAA, hitting .275 this year with some power with us knowing that he really can't hit ML pitching. Then we would have had a good chance to get something for him.  But now?  Not so much. Look, we have been down this road before with Zimmer, Mercado, Clement and others.  The odds are, at this point, very slim that Arias will be an offensive force of any kind.  If we can include him in a multiplayer trade and get a useable return then I do it and save all my other young middle infielders.

Tyler Freeman - Look, I love Freeman and what he brings to the game and if we can keep him, train him to play the OF, too, then I keep him.  The only way I trade him is if it is between him and...

Brayan Rocchio - Rocchio is, to me, the most untouchable middle infield prospect we have.  Martinez, Tena, Brito, Schneeman (yeah, I did include him).  Even none of the ML middle infielders we have on the 26-man right now are more exciting to me than Rocchio.  For an organization that values young, good fielding, hit-over-power switch-hitting guys, why are we even talking about this.  Rocchio checks off just about every box we have for a young middle infielder.  I just hope the fact that he is NOT in Cleveland right now is because they are waiting until Rosario is traded and NOT because the FO braintrust values Rocchio low enough that they are willing to undervalue him in a trade.

Outfielders

Myles Straw - Look, I don't really get why Straw's defense is so mediocre this year.  His offense has gotten better but, clearly, is never likely to be more than it is now.  So it is likely we just were burned by offering him an extension when we did and it is time to move one.  Frankly, Valera and Gonzalez as the 4th or platoon outfielders is better than spending the roster spot on Straw.  I think teams will value him as a throw-in on a trade and, like Arias, I do that if it gives me better young players out of a deal.

Oscar Gonzalez - They are the Cleveland Guardians.  They need to stay cheap and keep cranking out young, talented guys to keep being competitive, while on a budger.  I think Gonzalez is on the cusp of being really good.  Even if he fails we have Jhonkensy Noel and Jonathon Rodriguez on the way up.  Right now Gonzalez, like Rocchio, doesn't have a lot of value and would likely be a throw-in to a trade.  I keep him and let him platoon with Brennan (as long as Straw is n CF), as opposed to trading him for a ML outfielder.  The fear here is that we see too much Franmil Reyes in Gonzalez which, of course, is part of the resaon Will Benson and Nolan Jones are somewhere else and we have nothing to show for it except for the promise of Juan Brito in 2025.  

George Valera - He is damaged goods, both from injuries and from the recent fight.  Includng him in a trade at this point is, undoubtedly, selling low.  

Pitchers

Shane Beiber - Our biggest trade chip is staying now.  No way any team gives us what he is worth.  

Aaron Civale - Now our de facto biggest pitching trade chip, I am fine with tradeing CIvale.  I think we are maximizing his value if we make an astute trade involving him now.  The only think I will caution on it will weaken our chance to compete this year AND put our young starters at risk as we have to replace Civale's innings from the bullpen as whoever we bring up will not pitch as well, right away, as Civale is.  So, I get good value for him and I trade him in a heartbeat.  I am not talking Clevinger value but more like Tyler Mahle value.

Nick Sandlin - I think his value is the highest it ever has been right now and I would package him with Civale to a team like the Cardinals.  

James Karinchak - The Guardians FO has a way of looking at a guy who has had troubles and only see the warts.  Oh for the days when this team would embrace a guy like Albert Belle with all his quirks and given him a safe harbor to let him produce.  If you compare Sandlin and Karinchak there is not question.  Sandlin is out the door in a trade and Karinchak is called up.

Summary

I fear that the Guardians are ready to cut bait with Rocchio, Gonzalez and Karinchak, using them to get some young veteran they think is the missing piece to their puzzle.  This is the wrong approach as it has been with Francona staying with his veterans plus Arias way too long.    I don't want this trading deadline to be like our drafting where we think we know more than everyone else and get burned for it.   So, if you want to trade Civale and Sandlin and get an outfielder (e.g., Civale, Sandlin and Herrin for Jordan Walker) I might buy into that.  Might, as Walker currently sports a -0.9 WAR although he is a 21 year old playing in the majors  But, in me saying this, you can see where I am going.  Don't give away the guys who can help us next year who are at a low water mark in their value.  Trade the guys at the high water mark.

2023 Amateur Draft Signing Tracker - Will Be updated Regularly

 I will be updating this as we go along.  So far, here is what I have been able to find out:

• 13th round selection Jacob Bresnahan, LH HS pitcher, signed for $375,000, which is $265,000 over slot.  He was rated as the 500th best draft prospect, 66th best LHP prospect, 7th best prospect in the state of Washington and 2nd best LHP prospect (Perfect Game); 495th overall by Baseball America

• 10th round selection Matt Wilkinson, LHP JUCO, signed for $110,000, which is $55,300 under slot.

2023 Amateur Draft - Guardians' Draft Grades As Rated By Third Parties.

 1. Oddschecker.com:(overall draft grade) C (tied for the lowest grade they gave any team)

"The Guardians went reaching for Ralphy Velazquez. But if he's their guy then he's their guy.  Honestly, they reached for Andrew Walters and CJ Kayfus, too.  They are trusting their scouts but no other analysts agree"

2.Bleacher Report (overall draft grade) - B+

3. Baseball Lifestyle 101 (first round only) C+

"Velasquez has some of the most raw power of any prep player in the class, wth the ability to make consistent hard contact putting himself in talks of going in the first round.  He has more athleticism than he gets credit for, he will get the chance to stick behind the plate but could make the move to first base"

NOTE: They rated the Braves pick of Hursten Waldrep an "A"

4. Sporting News (first round only) - B-

NOTE: They rated the Braves pick of Hursten Waldrep an "A".

5. CBS Sports (first round only) - B

NOTE: They graded the Braves pick of Hursten Waldrep an "A"

6. SportsKeeda (first day only) - B

"The Guardians first-round pick Ralphy Velazquez was a decent one considering the season he put together last year.  However, the second round pick Alex Clemmey is the one who shows more potential in the long run.  Their third pick was Alex Walters from Miami".

7. DraftKings (first round only) - B-

"Velasquez blew up this spring, crushing the ball on the showcase circuit and watching his draft stock rise.  The bat has middle-of-the-order potential; there's a ton of raw power with better feel for hitting than you'd expect, and his exit velocities are among the best you'll see from a high schooler.  The real question is whether he can stick behind the plate, the answer to which depends on which particular scout you ask.  If he doesn't, first base is really the only other viable option, which will put a ton of pressure on his bat to live up to the billing.

NOTE: Draft grade for Atlanta for Hursten Waldrep: A-

8. My analysis (entire draft) - C-

Ralphy Velazquez was a reach at #23, the typical late riser who was not rated this highly during the winter and early spring, and even if you think that he can stay at catcher, you have now added another catcher to about 7 other quality catching prospects (all international signings) who are between 17-19 years old and are highly thought of by the organization.  Similar to our current situation with middle infielders, this organization has not shown the ability to break the logjam by executing successful trades of the guys who don't meet the club's needs/expectations.  In the best world (Velasquez can stay at catcher) they will, de facto, bump a good prospect off the depth chart (or maybe none of the international signees ARE good prospects!).  In the worst situation (he can't catch at the big league level) they have to count on his bat being great to play him at 1B or DH, not something you want to gamble on for a first round high school hitter in an organization not known for their ability to develop HS hitters.  Hursten Waldrep was the consensus choice for this pick after Emerson was gone (or maybe even if Emerson was still available).   Even Colin Houck would have been a much better choice than Velazquez.

Alex Clemmey in the second round is an excellent choice except that Cleveland has done a poor job of developing/keeping healthy high school arms who they drafted high in the draft.  This would have been a good gamble if Waldrep (high floor/high ceiling guy) had been taken in the first round.  If you put the gamble portion aside, Clemmey's value comes with his bonus.  He was the 50th ranked player in the country. His draft slot as the 58th player selected was $1.4 million.  He is likely to receive a $2+ million bonus (as evidenced by the announcement of his early signing: see Jacob Zibin's inflated bonus for his draft slot last year after a similar, early announcement of him reaching an agreement) which would make him the 43rd (or higher) best talent of the draft.  So while he was not a BAD selection at 58 he was not a steal there, either, and the VALUE of his selection is tied to his accepting slot or slightly above slot (say $1.7 million).  Anything more than that would indicate they probably overpaid Clemmey and, I believe there were probably players with less risk and as much, if not more, talent than Clemmey who would have signed for a slot-appropriate bonus leaving money for Cleveland to sign some of their late round picks.  It is also likely that these would have been players, probably college draftees, who the Guardians would be much more likely to have success in developing.

For selections for 2C through 7 all you have to do is look at their draft slot and where they were rated:

2C - Andrew Walters: Selected: 62, ranked: 124

3 - CJ Kayfus: Selected:92, ranked: 151

4. Cooper Ingle: Selected: 125, ranked: 232

5. Christian Knapczyk: selected: 161, ranked: 157

6. Tommy Hawke: selected: 188, ranked: 238

7. Alex Mooney: selected: 218, rankded: 114

Besides drafting guys (except for Mooney) much higher than they were ranked, they went way over the top drafting contact first/no power college hitters with little room left to develop any power.  By way of explanation,  there were 4 players listed in the MLB Pipeline top 250 draft prospects who had power listed below a "40" grade (20-80 scouting grading system, ML average is 50).  The Guardians drafted 3 of them.  Only one player in the entire MLP Pipeline listing had a ranking in ANY category (hit, power, speed, defense, arm) of "20" and Cleveland drafted him (Knapczyk, power grade of 20).

I cannot really comment on the quality of their remaining draftees. Recent history would tell us that there were probably some real prospects that Cleveland drafted in this group but in 2022, rounds 9 and 11-20 have looked, this year, like organizational players, even though some of them were playing at low A when they were college guys.  Also, the Guardians had signed all of their draft picks for the past 3 years but this year, in rounds 11-20, they drafted 4 HS pitchers and it would be surprising, though not impossible, if they signed them all and kept the streak alive of signing all of their draft picks.

When you add this to the 2022 draft that is looking like a failure, there is a chance that these last two drafts could seriously hurt our prospect pipeline (in depth and high end prospects who can make a significant impact on the ML team) for at least the next 5 years. 

Now we have to wait to see how many of these guys they sign and what bonuses they pay them and how much of their bonus pools they have left or overspend.  That will add to the ability to make an assessment on the quality of this draft which, right now, is looking almost comically bad in terms of the approach they took and the quality of players they obtained.

Thoughts for a Tuesday

 1. The result was great last night but the approach in the first 3 innings was pathetic.  A guy in his first ML start and we don't even take many pitches, allowing him to get through 3 innings on 25 pitches and 9 weak contact outs.  Let's see, Kwan opens the 4th taking a walk, Rosario takes 2 pitches and then, bam, its 2-0.  Then Ramirez and Naylor proceed to make early in the count outs.  The result was great but the game plan and early game execution was pathetic.  And, please, don't tell me that it was just part of their plan to lull Priester into a false sense of security by looking so inept in the first 3 innings.  

2. It scares me that we have so many guys hitting so well in the DSL.  Can't wait to see who the next Junior Caminiero will be.  As I said earlier this year, my end-of-season prospect list will be littered with DSL guys much more than with 2022 and 2023 draftees.  

3. What a great night for Guardians pitching.  It's a shame we are forced into a bullpen game by necessity when we have the arms to do it naturally, albeit only every once in a while.  Maybe we could use that to save our rookie starters arms later this season.  Curry has just been everything we could hope for this year as his fastball-slider combination screamed reliever from the time he was drafted.

4. Watching Akron today it reminds me how young some of these guys are and how it all a learning experience.  Both Rodriguez and Martinez came up in the 9th after the relief pitcher had walked the bases full with no outs and couldn't come up with even one run between them, the best RBI guys on the team.  It was also encouraging to see Brito pull his hands in on his HR ball.  Only good hitters can react like that.

5. Can't wait to see Rocchio and Gonzalez up here again.  Does anyone think that Brito and Noel could get cups of coffee this year?  I think it is possible.  BTW, I am REALLY scared that they think the same thing about Rocchio that they thought about Jones and Benson last year...that he is not a major leaguer.  I can't wait until Rosario is traded to, hopefully, get Rocchio up here.

6. I think Karinchak needs to be back up here.  Like they were with Jones, I worry they are ready to move on from Karinchak like they did with Jones.

Trade Deadline - This Could Tell Us A Lot About Our Manager and Front Office

 Over the winter we made a number of trades:

1. Owen Miller to Milwaukee for a PTBNL

2. Will Benson to Cincinnati for Justin Boyd and Steve Hajjar

3. Carlos Vargas for Ross Carver

4. Nolan Jones for Juan Brito

The bottom line is that none of these trades are actually helping the 2023 Guardians roster and, in fact, none of those trades look like they were fair returns on the players we traded away.  The only player who appears to be a viable prospect obtained in these trades is Juan Brito and, while he is a good hitter, he had to be rostered last winter to avoid being subject to the Rule 5 draft even though he had not played about A ball, meaning that the Guardians are likely to have to use all 3 of his minor league options before he even makes his ML debut, meaning he likely won't be able to be sent back to the minors without clearing waivers.  Even if he manages to stay in the majors, at this point he has no basestealing speed and is only a marginal defender at 2nd and 3rd base with his ability to take walks being his best hitting-related tool followed, in order, by his ability to hit for average then his ability to hit for power.  

The reason we made these trades was that we needed roster space and the organization decided that Miller, Jones, Benson and Vargas were not going to be players who could help our ML team in 2023 or in the future.   There was significant disagreement among fans and media at the time as to whether this was true, especially with Jones doing OK during his time in Cleveland but then being sent down after a month never to return.  It was frustrating watching Miller get playing time when he was hurting the team offensively and Benson had serious strikeout issues over his career although 2022 was, in Columbus, a breakout year for him that did not translate into ML success in his cameo with Cleveland last year.  Supposedly the manager and the front office felt that the strikeout issues of Jones and Benson made it unlikely that they would help the team in the future, a point that is being contested right now.  In Miller's case, the way he is being used by Milwaukee plus his natural improvement due to his experience has led to better stats for a contending team in 2023

In summary, our manager could not or chose not to use the these players or to use them in ways in which they would be effective and, when presented with this situation, the front office was incapable of trading these players for equal value in return, either in players who would help the major league team in 2023 or prospects who would help the team in the future.  That doesn't even consider the possibility that these players could have been bundled to obtain better talent instead of being traded separately.

The reason for this walk through recent history is two-fold:

(1) To demonstrate the ineptness that our front office has in making good trades when faced with a situation where a trade HAS to be made and

(2) The inability of our manager to use young players effectively, which has been demonstrated this year by his ineffective usage of Tyler Freeman and David Fry and allowing Oscar Gonzalez to languish at AAA while Gabriel Arias has been pathetic offensively and determining that our offense could have benefitted by a platoon of Will Brennan and Oscar Gonzalez in RF.  

So all this brings us to the upcoming trade deadline.

Months ago I suggested that early season performance suggested that the LA Dodgers could be a good trade partner for us.  It was pretty much a certainty that we were not going to sign Shane Bieber or Amed Rosario to new contracts and it was becoming more apparent that we needed more offense from centerfield and catcher than we were getting.  

Well, now our best deadline trade chip Bieber is hurt.  Given the above-mentioned history it is not likely that, piecemeal, our front office will be able to get much for Rosario or Straw.  

So this is the point where I get scared as I see some things that really bother me with the way we appear to value players:

1. Oscar Gonzalez should have returned to the majors by now and he hasn't.  I am afraid that he is going to go the way of Nolan Jones and Will Benson, being traded for less than their value.

2. I am afraid that Brayan Rocchio is not being valued highly enough by the front office and is in danger of being given away for a handful of magic beans.

3. I am afraid that Gabriel Arias, despite all evidence so far, is overvalued by our manager and the front office and will be unfairly be given playing time that should belong to Rocchio and Gonzalez.  

4. I am afraid that we will not be able to get value for Rosario and will, essentially, do a salary dump for him, helping the team we trade him to MUCH more than helping this franchise.  

5. I am afraid that Myles Straw will continue to be used as a starter instead of being moved to being a 4th outfielder or, even worse, be traded for peanuts, again not maximizing his value. 

6. I am afraid that the FO has moved on from James Karinchak and will trade him away for peanuts, repeating the mistakes they made when they moved Jones, Benson and Miller.  

7. Finally, while I don't think this will happen, that the franchise will punt on this season and trade Aaron Civale.  This would put way too much pressure on our young starting pitchers and, unless we can pull another Mike Clevinger trade out of the hat, won't provide us with parts that can help the franchise this year or next year, if those parts are viable at all (see Boyd, Hajjar and the cash we received for Miller, not to mention clogging our 40 man roster with Brito, a guy who won't help this team in 2023 and likely not until 2025, if then.  

I am afraid.   I am afraid that the manager will, once again, cause us to move on from players who he SHOULD be able to get performance out of and will continue to play players who are not helping this team win.  I am afraid that, knowing Francona's wishes, the FO will be ineffective at getting value for the guys Francona won't play and will also allow him to continue playing the ineffective players that he is so in love with.  

Infuriating!

 1. This is why Baseball Reference, even coming into this series, had Cleveland with only a 30% chance of making the playoffs.  Minnesota has a weaker schedule the rest of the season.  When we play one of the best teams in baseball in their home park and Minnesota plays the As, you HAVE to find a way to win one of those games in Texas.    We didn't.  

2. As I have been saying all season, Fry is a great 26th man.  Now we just need to identify who the other 25 are.

3. Rosario lucked out at the end as he could have easily grounded into a double play to end the game.  At least he husted.

4. With all the left-handed pitching Texas has, why was Gonzalez not called up and Arias not sent down before this series?  

5. I can't believe how Straw sucks.  His defense is mediocre and he gets beat by 91 mph fastballs.

6.  Why-oh-why is Frnacona such a status quo guy?  He is managing just in case the game goes 15 innings EVERY TIME.  Guess what, Tito.  We haven't had a game go 15 innings since last October.

7. Then there is Stephan.  Could you just not screw up?  Once.  Could you just not?  Your team really needed this win and you had to go out of your way to screw it up.   Bend over backwards to screw it up.  You screwed your team and totally demoralized them heading into the next series.  Hope you are happy!

8. Finally, and the most maddening of everything, is that we are screwing ourselves being sellers at the deadline.  Bieber is hurt.  Rosario, on a daily basis, lessens his trade value and Straw is almost worthless, too.  Plus, you can't trade Civale right now.  You need his veteran presence and for him to eat innings to save the young arms.  Even if we wanted to get rid of these guys it would be just a subtraction.  They are not good enough to get anything back.  You would be better off sending Rosario and Straw to the minors and call up Rocchio and Gonzalez.  I am NOT into giving away these veterans to other playoff-chasing teams for nothing.  Rosario and Straw deserve to be in Columbus.  Just send them there.  Don't do other teams a favor by giving them a veteran for free and don't do these players a favor by sending them to another ML team.  Just send them to Columbus to remind them that playing in the majors is an honor, not a right...something Francona should be saying, as well, instead of running these guys out there every day while rookies who ARE producing sit on the bench or stay in Columbus.  So there are no trades to be made as these three guys are now untradeable.   

Hey, most of last year was frustrating, too.  We all forget that but this is all about accountability and no one holds any of these guys (except for rookies) accountable for their play.

POSITIVE NOTE

Consulting with my unicorn she reminded me to say what a great job Tanner Bibee did today shaking off bad luck and pathetic defense to really mow through a damn tough batting order.  Kwan, Fry and Bibee were the really silver linings today.  But, just like the Cleveland teams of the 70s and 80s, that was just the hope for the future and not enough talent in the present.  They are better.  They just need to play, coach and manage better.

Thoughts For A Sunday Morning

•  This team is suffering a lot of bad luck right now.  McKenzie, Beiber, Quantrill all down with injuries.  That is a lot to put on a team whose performanc has to be near-perfect to win with their offense.  Plus, it really has tied our hands as far as the trade deadline goes.  
• Speaking of the trade deadline, I read where the Cardinals' president said their deadline strategy to acquire players who can help them in 2024.  So they are sellers, but with a goal.  He also said they are just not going to give players away.  It reminded me of when Cleveland traded Ricardo Rincon to Oakland for a bag of magic beans.  That was clearly a deadline deal to save a couple of bucks, literally in baseball terms.  So when our biggest trading chip is likely out of the trade picture, all we have is really Rosario and Myles Straw to trade if you don't want to count Civale, who is needed just to make it through the season.  I would rather keep those guys than just give them away for a couple of tier two prospects.  I hate trades where the team GETTING the veteran is helped significantly while the team LOSING the veteran gets literally nothing that will help now and, unless their scouting is shrewd, not in the future, either.  Rosario and Straw seem to be the kind of guys who would bring back peanuts.  I would rather just keep them and limp through the rest of the season with them than give them away now.  Individually, they are pretty worthless, trade-wise.  Packaged together with Beiber as I proposed before in suggested trades with the Dodgers, these guys have significant value to push the Dodgers to give us better prospects.
• It is unfair to his development to keep Gabriel Arias on the big league roster.  He needs to play every day and get his hitting together.   At the same time I think calling Oscar Gonzalez up to form a platoon with Will Brennan in RF is the right thing to do.  I worry that what is holding this up is that Francona doesn't like Gonzalez and doesn't want him.  If Tito doesn't think he needs you he won't play you.  Just ask Tyler Freeman. But Gonzalez should have been the starting RFer on Saturday.  That is a FACT.
• Chase DeLauter is putting up good numbers at Lake County.  For those of us who have seen him play, even on MiLB TV, his swing looks quick but uber-geared to low balls. He seems to get beat on waste-level and above fastballs, especially on the outside as he seems to be mostly a pull hitter.  This seems to be a very big weakness at this point as he is feeding off of pitchers who may not have great command yet and so are making mistakes to DeLauter's strength.  Time will tell.  Also, looking at the splits, Joe Lampe looks like he is getting eaten up by age-appropriate pitchers and feasting off younger pitchers.  I am surprised that people don't look at those splits more, especially in the low minors.
• Joey Cantillo needs more work, to be sure, but he looked pretty good on Saturday.  I hope him being removed from the game yesterday was because he was going to be brought up to pitch in the Pittsburgh series rather than that he had an injury issue.  We have had enough pitching injuries already this season. 
• Free James Karinchak, Oscar Gonzalez AND Brayan Rocchio.   Trade Amed Rosario for what you can get right now.  Unfortunately I have a sinking feeling that it will be these guys and NOT Rosario who are traded at the deadline.  Considering how we suck at such trades....
• Anyone else having trouble with Myles Straws's defense this year?  Defense is one of those things that should not degrade but Straw is not getting good jumps going to his left on balls.  It's almost like he is shying away to avoid a collision.  Don't know but when your Gold Glove centerfielder is having negative defensive metrics scores it is disturbing as that shoudl NEVER happen.
• Daniel Schneeman, can't wait for you to make your ML debut.  Would be nice to package you and Micah Pries to Oakland or KC to get someone useful back.  Then you would get the opportunity to play like Alex Call is getting in Washington.  Of course, our FO sucks at making those kinds of trades so, probably would rather keep you.

2023 Amateur Draft - Non-Drafted Free Agents

 OK, so it is common knowledge that some guys who aren't drafted are signed after the draft.  It is rare that any of these guys would make the majors but sometimes they do develop and become major leaguers or, at least, good prospects.  I don't know if you remember but we had a good one years ago: Jim Kern.   He was signed as a non-drafted free agent and made the majors, even pitching a complete game in his first ML appearance.  Eventually he settled in and became a reliable relief pitcher so it does happn.

But how often could it really happen, right?  In the early days of the draft there were so many phases and times of year guys were drafted teams could draft well over 70 guys.  So how many good players could be left after that?  When they cut the draft back to once a year and 40 players that still meant that 1200+ players were drafted.  Even with the draft cut to 20 rounds this still means over 600 players are drafted.  Plus, given that non-drafted free agents usually get small bonuses, how many quality players who weren't drafted could be enticed into play professional ball as opposed to going to college and get developed so, in 3 years, their draft bonus payday could go through the roof.  Gambling on yourself.  I get it.

But what happens if we stack the odds, give these non-drafted free agents their best chance ever. 

Well, the best chance of that happening occurred in 2020, the pandemic season.  The draft had only 5 rounds and there was very little chance to see guys in person so guys who were 5th to 10th round talents and who might have made a big jump didn't get a chance to show out.  I mean, guys make the majors all the time between the 5th and 10th rounds, right.  Sure, the chances go down after the first round but even at the 10th round the normal chances of a guy making the majors is 5-10%.  

So quality prospects could have still been available after those 5 rounds and some ingenious team could have found a way to sign these guys, right?  Diamonds in the rough who would sign cheaply to get their pro career started.  You could even use any left-over money you had from that drafts bonus pool for your team to sign these guys.  

But did teams do that and were they successful doing that, as measured by those players being among their team's best prospects 3 years later?  

So I took a look at the 2020 NDFA class and here is what I found:

• About 170 college and HS players signed in 2020 as non-drafted free agents
• 7 of those players were, at the beginning of 2023, among their team's top 30 prospects as rated by Baseball America, the highest being #3 for the Red Sox, Wilmer Flores, with the next highest being #4 for the Cubs, Matt Mervis.
• 12 additinoal NDFAs from 2020 were listed among the other prospects on the BA depth charts for those teams, meaning they were likely within their team's top 50 prospects before this season began.

7 out of 170 is about what you would expect or maybe a little more than if you looked at 10th round picks over the years.  So the hypothesis that teams would have been able to pounce on guys who weren't picked in the 5 round draft dosen't appear to have happened.  The fact that almost 90% of them don't appear on prospect lists tells me that the guys who signed as non-drafted free agents were likely the same type of guys who normally sign those contracts in any year: college players who don't want to play in college any longer and are just looking for a chance to play pro ball and high school kids who never really wanted to go to college and were willing to take the small bonus and promise that their college education, down the road, would be paid for by the team they signed with, kids with very little chance of increasing their eventual draft bonus if they stayed in college another year or three.

Nice thought but it didn't happen and if it didn't happen after a 5 round draft the guys who sign as NDFAs in even a 20 round draft will never be anything more than just organizational players.

Who did the Guardians sign as NDFA in 2020, you may ask: Jaime Arias, Joe Donovan and Alonzo Richardson.  These guys all still stand a very, very outside chance of making the majors and have all their their moments playing in the minors but one key is that they GOT that chance, a chance that might not have occurred if they had not grabbed for that brass ring when they did.  Good luck to the 3 of them and the rest of the 170 kids who chose to grab for that ring in a very sad, scary and dangerous time.  

Good luck to ALL the Guardians' NDFAs in 2023 as Jim Kern could tell you, magical things can sometimes happen if you just give it your all and get a few breaks along the way.

Best and Worst Cleveland Guardians Drafts Ever

Before I start, no smart-a** remarks.  I have lumped together all the Guardians and Indians draft years.

As I have been throwing around the phrase 'worst draft ever' I thought I would take a look at all of Cleveland's drafts since the draft started in 1965 to see what the best and worst drafts really were for the Cleveland Guardians.  Before we start a couple of points of clarification.  Back in the day there was the summer regular draft, the summer second phase, the winter draft and the winter second phase draft.  I have lumped all the drafts from one year together using the methodology that Baseball Cube uses.  I only count the players we signed (Interesting Factoid: Did you know, among others, that we drafted Joe Niekro out of HS?  He didn't sign so he doesn't count, of course).  Also, I didn't include any classes after 2016 as those stories have not been completely written yet.

Here are my choices:

 BEST DRAFT CLASS EVER

 1972 - Even though this class only contained 4 players who made the majors, they were a pretty good group which included Rick Manning, Dennis Eckersley and Duane Kuiper.  Also in the group was Eric Raich who had a ML cup of coffee.

Runnerups

2016 - This class is still making its name but 8 of 41 draftees have made the majors: Benson, Jones, Civale, Beiber, Plesac, Julian Merrrywhether, Samad Taylor, Connor Capel and Tanner Tully.  They might overtake the 1972 class when all is done but right now they are a close second.

1986 - This class was led by Greg Swindell and 11 members actually played in the majors

1989 - This group was one of the strongest led by Thome and Giles and contained 10 different players who played in the majors.

1991 - This class contained only 7 players but they were Manny Ramirez, Herbert Perry, Paul Byrd, Chad Ogea, Damien Jackson and Albie Lopez with Pep Harris having a late career cup of coffee.

1967 - This class had 10 major leaguers but no stars as you can tell when Cleveland's #1 pick that year was Jack Heinneman.

WORST DRAFT CLASS EVER

1978 - This class of 63 draftees produced only one major leaguer: Chris Bando

Runnersup

1978 - Only two major leaguers: Neal Heaton and a cup of coffee for Dwight Taylor

1985 - Cups of coffee all around for Scott Jordan, Rod Nichols and the immortal Luis Medina

1983 - I am sure that Dwight Clark and Andy Allanson would argue that their class does not belong on this list but, here it is.

1977 - Three cups of coffee for Jerry Dybzinski, Kevin Rhomberg and Eric Wilkins

1982 - The trifecta of coffee cups again for Charlie Mitchell, Jim Wilson and Jeff Barkley

Man, after doing this resarch I am sure glad I wasn't following the draft that closely in the 70s.  That was a brutal time to be a Cleveland baseball draft junkie...except, of course, for 1972.  

The next time I start to say that a particular draft is the worst class ever I'll have to stop myself and ask what Chris Bando would say.

Mid-Season Prospect Rankngs

 Now that the draft is over I wanted to share the prospect rankings that I have been updating due to graduation, 2023 performances and, of course, the draft. So here is the latest listing:

1. Brayan Rocchio

2. George Valera

3. Daniel Espino

4. Juan Brito

5. Joey Cantillo

6. Welbyn Francisca

7. Jaison Chourio

8. Cody Morris

9. Angel Martinez

10. Chase DeLauter

11. Petey Halpin

12. Tanner Burns

13. Angel Genao

14.Jhonkensy Noel

15. Ralphy Velasquez

16. Dayan Frias

17. Justin Campbell

18. Doug Nikhazy

19. Jonathon Rodriguez

20. Alex Clemmey

21. Will Dion

22. Jose Pirela

23. Tyler Thornton

24. Tommy Mace

25. Jackson Humphries

26. Daniel Schneeman

27. Evilio Hernandez

28. Jacob Zibin

29. Wuilfredo Antunez

30. Rafael Ramirez Jr.

31. Jose Cedeno

32. Estaban Gonzalez

33. Andrew Walters

34. Alex Mooney

35. Jogly Garcia

36. Bryan Lavastida

37. Joe Lampe

38. Parker Messick

39. Justin Boyd

40. Nate Furman

41. Jake Fox

42. Cade Smith

43. Ross Carver

44. Jack Leftwich

45. Jose Tena

46. C J Kayfus

47. Ryan Webb

48. Hunter Stanley

49. Steve Hajjar

50. Micah Pries

51. Alexfri Planez

52. Juan Benjamin

53. Ethan Hankins

54. Maick Collado

55. Victor Izturis

56. Milan Tolentino

57. Yerlin Luis

58. Luis Aparicio

59. Emilio Tavares

60. Yaikel Mijares

61. Manuel Mejias

62. Reid Johnston

63. Nic Enright

64. Shawn Rapp

65. Magnus Ellertrs

66. Tomas Reyes

67. Alonzo Richardson

68. Yorman Gomez

69. Austin Aldeano

70. Guy Lipscomb

71. Korey Holland

72. Nick Mikolajchak

73. Andrew Miziasek

74. Randy LaBaut

75. Logun Clark

76. Christian Knapczyk

2023 Amateur Draft - Some Post-Draft Thoughts

Who Drafted Slap Hitters in 2023

Using MLB Pipeline (only data I had access to that gave 20-80 grades) the 30 drafting teams drafted 99 hitters who were listed in the MLB Pipeline top 250 draft prospects.  Here are some numbers:

• 17/99 had power grades of less than 45
• 12 teams drafted at least one guy with below a 45 power grade
• 3 teams drafted more than 1 player with under a 45 power grade
• Cleveland - 5 hitters drafted, 3 with under a 45 power grade (Kayfus had a 45)
• Tampa - 5 hitters drafted, 3 with under a 45 power grade
• Baltimore - 5 players drafted, 2 with under a 45 power grade (including prototypical leadoff hitter and their #1 pick, Enrique Bradfield, Jr.,)

So, while Cleveland was not alone in drafting slap hitting players, they were certainly in the vast minority of teams in terms of thinking this was a good way to go.  The limitations to this analysis are that it only considered players in MLB's top 250 draft prospects using their rating scale for grading.

Hitters in MLB's  top 250 With Grades Under 40 in any category

Looking again through MLB's top 250 I found the following number of players who had ANY grade in any category (hit, power, run, arm, field) of under 40 using the scout's 20-80 grading scale.

• Run:  8 players had running grades of 30 or 35 (none of them were drafted by the Guardians_
• Power: 4 players had a power grade of under 40.  Three of them were drafted by the Guardians including the ONLY player in the entire draft, Christian Knapczyk, who had a grade of 20 in any category.

The same provisos apply: Only looked at the MLB Pipeline top 50 and not at the actual picks by the teams.  Grading based on MLB Pipeline grading criteria.

Summary

The above data shows to me how the Guardians went way over the top with their desire to place contact over power, which was essentially opposite to the strategy that was used by almost every other team in baseball.  While that is OK if your philosophy is working for you, the 2022 draft where they drafted similar hitters (Lampe, Furman, Lipscomb) with similar profiles has not worked out for them with Lampe, after April, struggling against A ball pitching, Furman, after his promotion to age-appropriate Lake County, really struggling and Lipscomb, who is doing OK  playing against younger competition in Lynchburg but has not been promoted yet.

The Guardians are using a strategy where they are drafting players whose upside is as a backup or utility player and they are doing it in the first 10 rounds of the draft.  That is just plain wrong!

How can a team use a similar strategy two years in a row, actually ramping up that strategy in the second year, if it didn't work the first year?  This, to me, is a sign that the Guardians think they know more than the rest of the teams in baseball and you can have that philosophy if you are successful.  However, as we are seeing this year, small ball the way the Guardians play it puts too much of a strain on your pitching staff to hold the opponents to well below league average run scored and your offense to score runs on 2-3 singles in an inning instead of 1 HR.  

The philosophy isn't really working for you.  Why continue it and ruin yet another draft?  And we're not even talking about the pitcher drafting mistakes they have made in the last 2 drafts.  Hey, you will always have draft failures but when you continue to use a failed drafting philosophy, you just exacerbate the situation.

I have said in a number of these blog posts that when you blow a draft you hurt your chances of competing in the future.  When you blow 2 in a row, you REALLY limit your ability to compete from 3-10 years post those drafts.  As an example, look at the 2015 and 2016 Guardians drafts. If we had blown those drafts like we have blown the 2022 and 2023 drafts we would be without Beiber, Civale and McKenzie, assuming that we would have drafted everyone else we did (unlikely as our philosophy would have been different).   Starting in 2019 I think it can be easily postulated that we would not have made the playoffs and maybe not even have had anything close to a .500 record in 2020, 2021, 2022 or 2023.  

That is what we have to look forward to as we do not currently have enough strong prospects in the minors to make up for two straight years of failed drafte. 

Say what you want, but these drafts have failed.  2022 based on a failed philosophy and failed performances and 2023 where the type of players drafted don't project to major league starters, let alone quality major league starters.

Will I look back some day and see that this was a Moneyball-like strategy that I didn't understand at the time?  Maybe.  But, looking at the numbers, I don't think so.

2023 Amateur Draft - Day 3 Results and Some Thougts About How They Will Use Their Bonus Pool

 Today the Guardians picked 10 players in the last Day of the 2023 amateur draft.  To put their last 10 round draft today in perspective, let's look at the players the Guardians picked in rounds 11-20 in 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2022.  

Round: 2018 pick, 2019 pick, 2021 pick, 2022 pick 

Round 11 - DeGroat, Mikolajchak, Stanley, Ellerts

Round 12 - Ponticelli, A. Hernandez, Koxx, Jasiak

Round 13 - Marman, Pries, Sharpe, T. Turner

Round 14 - Holland, I. Freeman, Denholm, Cavanaugh

Round 15 - Lavastida, Benton, Abney, Tulloch

Round 16 - Cardenas, J. Jones, Pettway, L. Clark

Round 17 - Jenkins, Escobedo, Thornton, Zarate

Round 18 - McCarthy, Waldron, Ventimighlia, Jacobs

Round 19 - Duplantis, K. Kelly, Johnston, G. Rivera

Round 20 - Miednik, Enright, J. Miller, Rapp

From the list above bold=made the majors, strikethrough = no longer in the organization, underline means HS draftee.

In summary, in these 4 years we drafted four HS players, 2 pitchers and 2 position players, all of whom signed.  The other 36 were all college players with 30 being college pitchers and 6 being college position players.  Clearly the Guardians drafted college pitchers predominantly in these rounds who they turned into relievers (mostly) and, in these drafts, drafted ZERO college catchers (1 HS catcher) in these rounds.  Three of these players have already played in the majors and I would think that a number of other ones will have the chance.  

I think the reason for this is that they know the college pitchers who will sign and they know the likelihood of a HS player signing is low and only draft those who they likely already have a pre-draft deal with.  

So that brings us to this year's draft. In rounds 11-20 the Guardians drafted:

1 college catcher, 4 HS pitchers, 4 college pitchers, 1 college outfielder.

This is somewhat stunning for the Guardians to do this type of drafting as in the past they have never drafted more than 1 HS player in any of the previous 4 years and only 2 pitchers in 4 drafts.  Now they drafted 4 HS pitchers in one draft.

With the draft lasting only 20 rounds the Guardians have put a premium on only drafting guys they can sign as they have signed all 40 guys they have drafted in these rounds over this period. 

Possible explanations could be:

• There were no college pitchers left they wanted to sign and so 2023 represents a one year aberration in their late round philosophy
• They were planning on having money left over from the first 10 rounds to sign some HS flyers 
• They realized how under-represented HS players with, likely, more upside had been in their previous drafts (if you can actually sign them)
• Due to the new rules they were not planning on signing all 20 draftees this year

By 'the new rules' I mean that the Guardians had some latitude in not putting players on their minor league reserve lists during their draft year.  That was the players could be signed but not assigned to a team.  Most teams totally fill these reserve lists every year  and addition of too many draftees could mean having to cut existing minor leaguers mid-season to accommodate the new draftees.

So which one or combination of these (or other reasons) did they have for moving more towards HS pitchers?    I don't know but I have a hunch, and it is based on the players they drafted in the first 10 rounds.

I may be totally wrong but, for the first time in the last 4 years, they may not spend their bonus pool in the first 10 rounds and, instead spend a significant amount of their draft budget on over-slot signings of guys in rounds 11-20.  Let's look at the players they drafted in the first 10 rounds with me estimating what I consider the bonus they should obtain vs the slot:

1. Ralphy Velazquez  Slot bonus: $3.38 million, projected bonus: $2.9 million, difference: $480,000

2. Alex Clemmey  slot bonus: $1.4 million, projected bonus: $1.7 million, difference: $-300,000

2C.  Andrew Walters  slot bonus: $1.27 million, projected bonus: $770,0,000, difference: $500,000

3. CJ Kayfus slot bonus: $725,300, projected bonus: $525,000, difference: $200,300

4. Cooper Ingle slot bonus: $526,200, projected bonus: $350,000, difference: $176,200

5. Christian Knapczyk slot bonus: $371,000, projected bonus: $340,000, difference $31,000

6. Tommy Hawke slot bonus: $295,000, projected bonus: $320,000, difference $-25,000

7. Alex Mooney slot bonus: $231,300, projected bonus: $700,000, difference: $-468,700

8. Jonah Advincula slot bonus: $191,100, projected bonus: $191,100, difference: $0

9.  Jay Driver slot bonus: $174,300, projected bonus: $174,300, difference: $0

10. Matt Wilkinson slot bonus: $165,300, projected bonus: $200,000, difference $-34,700

So, if I have done my math correctly, we should have $559,100 left over from our draft budget.  If you want to go over your draft budget you could add another $436,835 (5% over budget) to that for a grand total of $995,935.

Essentially, in my opinion, we could easily have close to (or even over) $1 million to play with to sign late round draftees.  Remember, each player drafted after round 10 can be signed for up to $125,000 without it counting against a team's draft bonus pool.  This would mean that we could, using the above figures sign 2 of these late draftees for $500,000 or 3 for $400,000 or 5 for $300,000 and still have a little left over after signing these guys at each of those values.  

The Guardians have shown a desire to sign all of their draftees once MLB shortened the draft to 20 rounds.  Since they drafted so many HS pitchers after the 10th round and so few (for them) pitchers in the first 10 rounds, I think their plan is sign some or all of these 4 HS pitchers drafted late for overslot bonuses.

So, there it is.  My thought about what the Guardians plan to do with the draftees after the 10th round.  I doubt they sign all of their top 20 draftees for the first time in the last 5 full drafts (not counting 2020), but I think they will come closer than you would imagine for drafting so many HS pitchers after round 10.  I am in no way saying this is what I would do but, then again, there is no way I would have ever put together the first 10 rounds of this draft in as stupid, almost comical way as the Guardians did, especially on the heels of the overspending and bad results from the 2022 draft.