2023 Amateur Draft - Part 15 - Last Thoughts Before The Draft Begins

OK. The draft.  An instrument designed to give small market teams a player acquisition advantage.

For small market teams like Cleveland, who can't buy their way out of draft disasters by simply signing a free agent or five, this is it.  I make a big deal about the importance of the draft...because it is important.

Let's look at some current statistical leaders:

ERA: 9 of 10 of the top ERAs in the majors are owned by pitchers who came out of the draft

SO: 7 of 10 of the ML leaders in strikeouts came from players who were drafted.

Wins: The top 15 pitchers in baseball in terms of wins came from the draft

Homeruns: 6 of 10 top HR hitters in MLB came out of the draft.  

Batting Average: 5 of 10 top batting averages are held by players who came out of the draft. 

Player development of all signees is important, but the draft is the ONLY player acquisition mechanism in baseball (except for waivers) where your ability to acquire players doesn't put small market teams at a disadvantage. [NOTE: There is a budget cap on international signings but that doesn't seem to stop large market teams from signing guys to huge bonuses.]

Important thought: The 2021 draft was genius in terms of what the Guardians got out of it so far (Bibee, Williams) and what is coming along (Mace, Nikhazy, Dion, Fox, Leftwich, Stanley, Thornton etc.).  The 2022 draft, on the other hand, is turning into a disaster as the guys who were drafted, if not hurt, are looking EXACTLY like organizational players.  So, while 2021 was great, you cannot blow drafts out of your butt like they did in 2022 and you certainly can't blow two drafts in a row.  So 2023 is a HUGE draft for the Guardians (as if all drafts for a small market team aren't crucial!!!). 

So all those warnings and trepidations, let's look at what the current news is for the draft and end with some final thoughts before the draft gets started on who I think the Guardians SHOULD draft,  eliminating players who will very likely will NOT fall to Cleveland in the first round..

1. Colt Emerson remains solid at #29 on the MLB Pipeline rankings while Sammy Stafura bolted from #86 to #32 with buzz that the Yankees, seeing Anthony Volpe part deux, are in heavily on Stafura, to say nothing about Jonathon Mayo's mock draft that has the Guardians taking him.  Understand that Emerson is the long-play in this draft.  If he is as big a success as I think he can be, the upside is that it will take him 3 full minor league seasons to get to the majors, meaning he won't reach the majors until 2026, at the earliest (see Anthony Volpe of the Yankees) but it could take him until 2029 to make the majors for good (see Tyler Freeman of the Guardians).  Backup plan if Emerson is gone (in order of selection): Nolan Schanuel, Brock Wilken, Bryce Eldridge.

2. Kemp Alderman, my choice for the Guards 2nd round pick for some time now, has moved up to #55 from #69 on the heels of his good pre-draft workout at the MLB combine.  Really don't know if he will be there when the Guardians draft at #58.  He is a tool-limited guy but with his power potential, strong arm and position versatility and a polished college profile, and the fact that he hits right-handed, I think he is worth the gamble if he is still there.  He looks like a better version of David Fry to me, but a little more outfield heavy whereas Fry is a little more infield heavy. If Alderman is not available I think you will be looking at the best college pitcher available and hold out hope that Myles Naylor will be there at 62.  

2C. Myles Naylor is drifting a bit, falling from #59 to #64.  Given that he is more lowly rated in other listings, I think he should be there and we should be able to draft him at #62.  If he is gone, again, best college pitcher available on their board.

I will post during the draft Sunday night and then, Monday morning, I will give my opinions on who the Guardians should target in rounds 3,4 and 5 with some thoughts about the types of players they might go for in rounds 6-10..  After round 5 it is anyone's guess who a team will draft and as I have shown in a previous post, it is very possible they will go outside of MLB Pipeline's top 250 consistently in these 5 rounds, making handicapping or even predicting in those rounds almost impossible..