As we continue to speed toward the 2023 draft, let's take a quick look back at what I thought, at the time of the draft, who the Guardians should have selected in the first 5 rounds of the draft.
ROUND 1
Guardians pick: Chase DeLauter
My pick: Daniel Susac
Analysis: My selection was based on organizational need AND the fact that Susac was projected to be an early first round pick and fell to where we could have selected him. We passed and he went a couple of picks later to Oakland. We went with DeLauter and another foot injury has sidelined him for most of this season which makes any comparison difficult. Susac is hitting .282/.353/.416 at high A and has thrown out 25% of the runners trying to steal. He has 5 passed balls this season. Susac is not rated in the top 100 in baseball nor is DeLauter, although I think DeLauter was at some point this year. Currently DeLauter is #6 on the Guardians top prospect list and Susac is #4 on Oakland's list. In summary, I stick by my selection, although De Lauter's injury clouds a performance comparison so far.
ROUND 1C
Guardians chose: Justin Campbell
My pick: Cayden Wallace
Analysis: Wallace, the #4 KC prospect at this point, is hitting .269 at high A. He is slashing .269/.353/.466 for an .819 OPS. Campbell is injured, making any performance comparison difficult. Still, with 8 HR so far, Wallace would have provided much needed power to the Guardians system. By comparison, Jorge Burjos leads the Guardians high A team with 6 HRs and the team OPS for Lake County is .656 with only Juan Brito's .803 being over .800. Again, can't do a comparison due to Campbell's injury but I stick by my selection.
ROUND 2
Guardians chose: Parker Messick
My pick: Carson Whisenhut
Analysis: Both these guys were college LHPs. Messick is currently ranked 18th in the Guardians farm system (the top 5 in our system are top 100 prospects in all of baseball) and Whisenhut is the 99th ranked prospect in all of baseball and San Francisco's #4 prospect. Whisenhut is currently at AA after pitching well in A and A+ ball this year. Messick pitched OK in A ball and got bombed in his one start at A+. I stick by my pick here as it is clear that, so far, Whisenhut has looked much more like an appropriate 2nd round pick than Messick.
ROUND 3
Guardians chose: Joe Lampe
My pick: Dominic Keegan
Analysis: Lampe is the #28 prospect in the Guardians' system, Keegan is the #24 prospect for Tampa Bay. Keegan has spent most of this season feasting on young A ball pitching, Lampe has spent all of this year and, except for April, has struggled mightily with A+ pitching. Lampe does not look like a good centerfielder in pro ball so far and Keegan was drafted with the knowledge that he might not be able to stay at catcher as a pro, although that is what he has played so far. I stick by my pick as Keegan has power, plays a premium position (C) that we are lacking of the middle-to-high minors and hits right-handed.
ROUND 4
Guardians chose: Nate Furman
My pick: Luke Gold
Analysis: Gold is doing OK but is still in A ball. Furman did very well in A ball before his promotion to the more age-appropriate A+ where he is struggling mightily. Looking back, the big difference between these guys at draft time was that Gold was more highly rated (Furman not in MLB Pipeline's top 250) and Gold hits right handed. It is hard to evaluate their performance so far as they both played the bulk of their seasons as overage players but I still stick by my pick, at least at this point.
ROUND 5
Guardians chose: Guy Lipscomb
My pick: Noah Dean
Analysis: Dean is getting bombed at A ball. LIpscomb, at least, had some success in A ball, at least in April and May. I have to give this one to the Guardians because they are getting something out of this pick whereas my pick looks like he might not make it to A+ ball this year.
OVERALL SUMMARY
The Guardians 2022 draft is still not able to be given even an initial grade due to injuries. Still, the picks that someone like me could make were based on surface stats and organizational needs and without the advantage of a staff doing a deep dive on these guys. No way should I come close to picking better prospects than Barnsby. No way. Still, I would take my draft over Barnsby's draft any day of the week...just like I said at the time. If you are going to draft like Barnsby did, drafting with certain traits in mind (left-handed hitting college players with good bat-to-ball and OB skills), requiring exhaustive due diligence on injured players and on players with the potential for injury, you better be successful. It doesn't appear he was. He has to do better in the 2023 draft as what he did last year certainly is hurting our farm system.
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