NOTE: This will be updated during the day as the draft continues.
Let's look at our draft haul so far, first as individual players I will post an overall summary of our first 10 rounds later tonight.
In this post I'll ask three questions about every player we drafted: Was the pick a good value for the draft slot? Was it an organizational fit? What could the Guardians have done instead?
1. Ralphy Velasquez HS C/1B
Value of this pick - If Velasquez can stay at catcher and continues to hit, this is good value for this pick. Two big "IF" phrases for your first round pick. I think the best way to summarize this is that if everything goes as the Guardians hope it will this will be a good pick. If Velasquez has to move to 1B (only other positional option) I don't know that his bat justifies being selected at this slot.
Organizational need -As high school catchers are the worst gamble in the first round of the draft, this was not a good choice at this slot. Add to that the young catchers we have in the system who are about the same age: Lopez, Izturis, Cedeno, Mejias, Lopez, Clark. Better to have drafted Susac and/or Rushing last year as those guys would be 1-2 levels above the list of guys here.
Other options - We could have drafted Houck or Miller but their rapid drop signaled signability concerns as they probably have high bonus demands. We could have also drafted second tier HS or college guys, neither of which are optional for an organization coming off of a terrible 2022 draft. To me, although it was a risky one, the only play that made sense here was to draft Hurston Waldrep and hope that your finishing school for college pitchers could iron out his fastball command. They should have drafted Waldrep given the ifs about Velasquez.
2. Alex Clemmey, LH HS pitcher
Value of the pick - Clemmey represents good value if we can develop a HS pitcher. Here is a list of HS pitchers the Guardians have recently drafted near the top of the draft:
2022 - Javier Santos (7th, injured), Jack Humphries (8th, ACL team), Jacob Zibin (10th, injured)
2021 - None
2020 - None
2019 - Daniel Espino (1st, injured)
2018 - Ethan Hankins (1st), Lenny Torres Jr (1st)
2017 - None
2016 - None
2015 - Brady Aiken (1st), Triston McKenzie (1st), Juan Hillman (2nd)
2014 - Justus Sheffeld (1st), Grant Hockin (2nd), Sam Hentges (4th)
2013 - Sean Brady (5th), Casey Shane (6th)
In the last 10 drafts the Guardians have drafted exactly THREE HS pitchers who have made the majors (McKenzie, Hentges and Sheffeld). Three in 10 years. So while, in a vacuum, Clemmey looks like a good pick putting him in this organization does not improve his value.
In addition, drafting a high ceiling/low floor guy like Clemmey right after drafting another risky guy in Velazquez doubles down on the risk of flame out resulting in the Guardians getting nothing from their top 2 picks.
BTW, Clemmey's value goes down almost linearly by the amount over slot it would take to sign him. He is a flyer, someone who is not nearly a finished product and so should be willing to sign at slot or maybe 10% over slot.
Organizational need: You can never have too much pitching...as opposed to having too many 18 year old catchers.
Other Options: Jack Gelof, 3B, Virginia (#35 ranked draft prospect) - If you draft Hurston Waldrep at #1 this is an easy decision if you are looking for a power bat. However, in drafting Waldrep you could still have drafted Clemmey as Waldrep represents present value and Clemmey represents taking a shot at future value.
2C. Andrew Walters, RHP
Value - Walters was ranked 124th and was picked 62nd. This is a clear example of where a team, in my opinion, overvalued a one-pitch pitcher. The only way he is worth being selected at this slot is if he can convert to a SP, which will be a tall order for a guy starting out with one pitch. Add to this that Walters is an old draftee (22 years old) and that teams just don't draft college relief pitchers this high in the draft, instead converting failed starters to relief pitchers (e.g., Eli Morgan) and this pick doesn't represent good value for the slot. It is a reach pick the success of which is dependent on a role change when there is no evidence that can even be successful.
Organizational need - You can never have too much pitching
Other Options - If you wanted a college pitcher there were plenty of reasonable ones available: Hunter Owen and Jauron Watts-Brown were two that I researched. There were plenty of other top-ranked prospects on the board with NINE other prospects ranked 61 or better (remember Walters was selected at slot 62) left on the board at that point.
3. C. J. Kayfus, OF, U. Miami
Value - Selected at spot 93, the 151st rated prospect is ANOTHER, I repeat ANOTHER left-handed hitting college player with some speed and good OBP skills and good defense and questionable power. As if our experiment in last year's draft with Lampe, Furman, Lipscomb didn't teach us anything. To make matters worse, he has played primarily as a 5'11" first baseman in college, meaning that to have any value at all, ANY value, he has to be able to play an OF corner. Maybe they are seeing Steven Kwan in this guy but with Lampe, Boyd, Halpin, Fox and a host of others in front of him this pick is just plain stupid.
Organizational need: You CAN have enough LH soft hitting outfielder and infielder prospects drafted out of college and, before Kayfus, we already had too many overvalued (by the Guardians) prospects of this type.
Other Options: You name it. There were several highly rated college pitchers who I had mentioned including Levi Wells (my 3rd round pick and #96 rated prospect), Tanner Hall (92), Grayson Hitt (88). Any of these guys and I repeat ANY of these guys was a MUCH better option for an organization that can develop pitching and, in the case of Hitt, rehab pitchers who have had TJ surgery.
4. Cooper Ingle C, Clemson
Value - OK, now I know they are just messing with me. Literally, the guy has 30 power. That is almost like a consolation grade as I have never seen anyone who was drafted with a 20 grade in anything. That power grade is so bad that they could likely defend this guy with 5 infielders and 2 outfielders. Speaking of that, he has only really caught 60 games total in college playing also at the IF and OF corners. He was the 232nd rated prospect drafted at 125. That should tell you all you need to know about his value but if you want more, here it is. Here are the other college catchers the Guardians have drafted in the first 10 rounds in the past 10 years:
2013 - None
2014 - Simeon Lucas (7th)
2015 - None
2016 - Logan Ice (2C), Michael Tinsley (7)
2017 - Mike Rivera (6)
2018 - None (NOTE: Bo Naylor was a HS catcher drafted that year in the first round and Bryan Lavastida was a college catcher drafted in the 15th round)
2019 - None
2020 - None
2021 - None
2022 - None
Really great list, huh. Every one of these guys was a total organizational guy AND selected in the first 10 rounds, meaning it was a serious waste of bonus money and the asset of that draft pick. So, in my opinion, this pick has ZERO value and we just wasted our 4th round pick in this draft. Remember, Beiber was a 4th round pick. One bright side, however, is that he hits left-handed.
Organizational Need - You can never have too many college catchers to catch your 18 year old starters at Lynchburg and bullpens in spring training.
Other Options - Literally, almost any college pitcher or position player left in the top 250 at that point. If you could get a halfway decent HS pitcher (e.g. Jackson Humphries from last year's draft) that would be a better selection. But almost anyone would have done.
5. Christian Knapczyk - SS Louisville
Value - Knapczyk was the 157th rated prospect chosen at 161. He is....wait for it...a left-handed hitter. He a contact first guy with no power. Remember when I said I had never seen a 20 grade (20-80 scale) on a drafted player? Knapczyk has a 20 power grade so I stand corrected. He is another LH hitting, hit over power, good OBP guy who takes his walks who will play 2B in the pros. My guess is the success Daniel Schneeman is showing as a 27 year old this year at Columbus, the Guardians have decided it only a matter of time until they see that from Knapczyk. Again, very little value in this pick...unless you consider the hard-to-achieve (for him) utility role/pinch runner in the majors.
Organizational need - Yeah, like we really need more small, speedy middle infield types in this organization. Translation: There is no need for a guy with this limited skill set (no power, limited to second base) in this organization, especially NOT with a 5th round pick. Remember, Steven Kwan was a 5th round pick.
Other Options - See Ingle, Cooper above.
6. Tommy Hawke OF Wake Forest
Value - I was really hoping that this was the famous skateboarder of similar name. THAT would have been interesting. Regarding OUR Hawke, where to start? He was the 238th ranked prospect selected with the 188th pick. He is a lefthanded hitting outfielder with a 30 power grade who is probably 5'6 and 150', giving him the distinction of being the smallest player on MLB Pipeline's top 250 (what an honor!). He has a below average arm and is only a decent centerfielder, meaning he is likely to end up in LF, where, if he makes the majors with the Guardians, at least Steven Kwan will no longer be the shortest guy on the team. Short leadoff hitter, hits left-handed, limited to no power, left fielder. Don't we have one of those on the Guardians? Maybe they think Hawke is the next incarnation of Kwan and will be ready if Kwan ever decides to move on to another organization.
Organizational need - We need someone in the team photo to be shorter than Kwan. In all seriousness, what does this mean about Lampe, Lipscomb and Furman if we keep drafting LH hitting position players a year after we drafted them and while each of them was having an organizational player-like season.
Other Options - See Ingle, Cooper above.
7. Alex Mooney - SS, Duke
Value: Mooney was the 114th best prospect who we got at 218. Like Hawke, Mooney is a draft-eligible sophomore meaning he has a lot of leverage in his negotiations. He hits right-handed (oooh, I may need some air, I am feeling lightheaded). He is a solid defender with solid speed, a solid approach at the plate and a solid runner. He is just solid and appears to be a value at this pick if he actually signs. Even if he does sign, the middle infield prospects are stacking up in our system. but, as a 7th rounder, this is not a bad pick. I will say this, however, we have only drafted TWO pitchers so far and that is unusual for us.
Organizational need: Actually, as funny as it sounds, we DO need infielders who hit RIGHT handed. But, for the most part, the organization is flush with middle infielders and yet we still keep adding more. The good thing about Mooney, it seems he has a little power and with a 40 grade, may actually lead the US-born players in HRs at Lake County next year.
Other Options: The only option I would see here is if we picked the most signable of the HS prospects that have not been selected yet and make a run at him using savings I hope we are getting for Velazquez and Walters.
8. Jonah Advincula - OF, Washington State
Value: Stop me if you heard this one before. A Cleveland scout walks into a college bar and sees a guy with a baseball jersey on. He asks "Do you hit left handed?" to which the player says 'yes'. Hearing this the scout says: "You're drafted". Looking at Advincula's stats, he is a hit over power guy, he can steal bases (24/26) and he walks more than he Ks (28/19 in 244 PA). He was drafted 248 and, not surprisingly, was not in the MLB Pipeline to 250.
Organizational need: A left-handed hitting college outfielder without power but with good OB and SB skills who can play defense. So, I wll leave it to you. Do we need yet another one of these?....I thought not.
Other Options: Has anyone noticed that we have drafted exactly two pitchers in our first 9 picks of this draft. This is like the anti-2021 draft. Maybe, since all the good pitchers have already been drafted, we should start looking at drafting bad pitchers? Just kidding!
9. Jay Driver RHP Harvard
Value: I mean, having an Ivy Legue pitcher in your draft is mandatory, right? It just classes up the whole event. Normally, we start to look for bullpen guys with our picks in the teens (e.g., Magnus Ellerts). But in this draft we have Walters and now Driver who look like classic reliever types. Not unlike when we drafted Karinchak, actually. So there is always value when you draft a college pitcher with a good fastball...assuming he will sign for under slot.
Organizational need: You can never have too many college pitchers.
Other options: Look, on pick 278 you got a guy in the top 250 (#241) who has a good fastball-slider combination. It doesn't get much better than that unless, like last year, we would have drafted a HS flyer like Humphries or Zibin and overpaid for their services.
10. Matt Wilkinson LHP, Central Arizona Community College
Value: Wilkinson was not in the MLB Pipeline 250, not surprising as he was the 308th player selected in this draft. He had great K/IP and K/BB numbers in junior college. He was recently named a first team JUCO All-American. He is 6'1", 270'. So he obviously has some ability and some size to him. He is also Canadian, which adds to the Quantrill/Naylor/Naylor connection, even though I would have liked to have one more Naylor in that grouping. But I digress. It seems like there is some value there with him as a reliever.
Organizational Need: You can never have too much pitching.
Other Options: This would have been a great spot for a HS flyer pick but we didn't make one so......
Aside from that this seems like a reasonable pick, just like the Santos one was last year, sans all the supposedly stud college position players and pitchers who were drafted before Santos and the HS flyers who were drafted after him.
More later tonight about the overall impact of this draft on the Cleveland organization.
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