2023 Amateur Draft - Part 16 - What the Guardians Should Do on Day 2 of the Draft

 OK, so far we have drafted these players.:

1. Ralphy Velazquez, LH HS C/1B - Rated as the 34th best prospect by MLB Pipeline, selected at #23

2. Alex Clemmey LH HS Pitcher - Clemmey was the 50th ranked prospect selected on the 58th pick.  

3. Andrew Waters RH College Relief Pitcher - Walters is 22 years old as he gained an extra year of eligibility due to the 2020 pandemic season.  

Analysis - Drafting HS catchers in the first round is generally considered very risky and not generally productive.  The last HS catcher drafted in the first round who tallied a career WAR of >10 was Joe Mauer, who went #1 overall in the 2001 draft.  Given that Velazquez was the 34th ranked prospect by MLB Pipeline and he was drafted at 23, this doesn't seem like a good gamble at all.  Hey, it might turn out, who knows.  But given our lack of success in developing HS hitters and our emphasis in the international front on signing position players and catchers over pitchers, this pick feels like a stretch, especially when a lot of his worth will be based on whether he can remain at and be good at being a catcher.  What I do know is that there HAD to be someone who is (A) a better prospect, (B)could have gotten to the majors faster and (C) had a higher floor than a HS catcher drafted in the first round and a HS senior with command issues.  High ceiling for Clemmy but, like Velazquez, a very low floor and no return for 4-5 years or more (compare to Bibee and Williams and even Allen and Gaddis/Curry).  Yes, on the upside Clemmy could turn out to be Sam Hentges but on the downside he could turn out to be Lenny Torres or Juan Hillman, both of who are also good comparisons to Clemmey.   In Walters they get a strike-throwing college strikeout relief pitcher.  He was ranked 124th by MLB Pipeline but was drafted at the 62nd slot.  He is old for the draft (22) and his worth is maximized only if this college relief pitcher can make the transition to being a starter..  Note that a study showed that at least 25% more value for their drafting teams is obtained by drafting players who are young for their class than players who are older.  Thus a 17 year old HS pitcher or a 20 year old college pitcher who graduated HS early are going to provide more value than a 22 year old college pitcher...just saying.  

So, in summary, my analysis of the first three picks in the draft is that it SHOULD not cost us a lot of money so we should have some money left over for flyers in later rounds.  As far as our draft picks, this draft is very underwhelming to me so far as talent at that draft slot was not achieved for any of these picks and any value we gain from these first 3 picks will only be realized if Velazquez can stay at catcher AND still hit for average and power, if Clemmey becomes Sam Hentges rather than Juan Hillman and Walters can become a starter.  A team should NOT be having this many qualifiers to determine the success of their first 3 picks in this draft.  There was way to much talent for that to be the case.  Look, every team, unless they totally blow the first 3 picks, will come out of this draft with some talent.  The issue is that when I look at this draft I don't see any of these three players breaking our top 10 prospects now and maybe only 1 in the top 20 when, in fact, all three should be in the top 20 with our first round pick being in the top 10.   People can throw all the positive opinions out there that they want but it just isn't supported compared to what we SHOULD get out of the first two rounds of a draft.

Added on to the poor return we are receiving from all of our draft picks after the first round CB pick in the 2022 draft, the first 3 picks of the 2023 draft won't help make up for that and, in fact, could easily ADD to it, with very little help for the big league club in the next 4 years  with that help hinging on a bunch of qualifiers that are not supported as being likely by historical data.

On To Round 3

While I don't think it SHOULD make any difference what position these players play, it is not out of the question that the Guardians will try to balance their draft in the next 7 rounds.

Here are my thoughts on the guys the Guardians should draft if they are still available when the Guardians draft in rounds 3-5:

3rd round - Levi Wells - RHP - Texas State - Wells' profile is very similar to that of Aaron Civale when he came out of college.

4th round - Jack Mahoney - RHP - South Carolina - Mahoney has five things the Guardians have looked for in their starting pitcher draftees:

• Good size
• Strike thrower
• Good athleticism to allow for changes in their delivery, if necessary
• Stuff that requires small tweaks
• Undervalued due to recent TJ surgery

Mahoney has all of these, including being a star HS QB.  When I look at him I see Shane Beiber all over again.

In fact, if we get Wells and Mahoney at these slots my head dances with visions of a repeat of the the 2016 draft that netted us Civale and Beiber.  

5th round - Connor Burns - C - Long Beach State - When I read his scouting report it screams Mike Zunino to me but as a 5th round pick he is a good pick.  Yes, the Guardians have usually used the later rounds (>12) or undrafted free agents to sign their college catchers but let's face it, all these guys except for Bryan Lavastida (who wasn't even a catcher when drafted) have just been low level organizational players whose main responsibility was to provide a veteran backstop to help with the development of their young pitchers (Crash Davis without making the majors or leading the minors in career HRs).

In rounds 6-10 it is almost impossible to decipher who the Guardians will draft.  I hope they go for a lot of college power hitters and pitchers while mixing in one flyer HS pitcher who they will have to go over slot to sign.  Here are some names to keep in mind in these rounds:

Round 6 - 

• Joe Vetrano, 1B, Boston College.
• Isaiah Coupet, LHP, Ohio State
• George Klassen, RHP, Minnesota

Round 7

• Matt Etzel OF - Southern Miss.
• Carter Graham 1B - Stanford
• Jaden Hamm, RHP, Middle Tennessee St.

Round 8

• Josh Grosz - RHP East Carolina
• Owen Wild - RHP Gonzaga
• Paulshawn Pasqualotto RHP, California

Round 9

• Mitchell Scott, RHP Kent State
• Nico Zeglin, RHP Long Beach State
• Brant Alazaus, RHP Xavier
• Flynn Chester, RHP Cal St. Fullerton

Round 10

• Joseph Gonzalex RHP, Auburn (will require large overslot bonus)
• Tate McGuire RHP, HS (will require an overslot bonus)
• Kennon Kemp, RHP, HS (will require an overslot bonus)

Here's hoping they do better in rounds 3-10 and actually have better luck than they did today, when the Guardians lost the best player, by far, left in the draft, all things considered, when they lost Colt Emerson to Seattle.  Again, can't begin to say how disappointed I am in that situation.  Just bad luck, really bad luck, exasperbated by not the best draft strategy for the 3 picks we did make yesterday.