Could The 2021 Draft Be Our Best Draft Ever?

 OK, I posted earlier that in my opinion our best draft ever was in 1972 but that the 2016 draft which gave us Jones, Benson, Bieber, Civale, Plesac, Julian Merrywether, Samad Taylor and Connor Capel, likely will surpass it and easily become our best draft ever once all is said and done.

But what about the 2021 draft? Does it have a chance to displace 2016?  

NOTE: Players from the 2021 draft do not have to be protected from the Rule 5 until after the 2024 season (if they were college draftees) or 2025 season (if they were HS draftees).  So, although Williams and Bibee are already in the majors, we are still a long way away from determining if any of the rest of these guys would warrant being protected from the Rule 5 in the future.  For simplicity, just add a level (e.g., AA to AAA) for any of the guys below and you wll get where, minimally, they end up after next season.  It is optimal that guys are in AAA the year they are first Rule 5 eligible with AA less optimal, A+ being problematic (might not get to the majors before their minor league options run out) and A+ is REALLY problematic (unlikely to get to the majors before their minor league options run out).

Well, we are early in the process but here are some numbers so far:

•  There have been 17 players from the 2021 draft who have played in the majors so far and the Guardians have 2 of them (Williams and Bibee).  Cincinnati and Atlanta also have 2 each.
• Already 7 of our other draftees have reached AA, meaning they should be established in AAA by the end of next season.  Our top HS prospect is in A+ and most of the rest of our college draft picks are in A+ ball and performing well, meaning a promotion to AA before the end of the season is not out of the question, meaning they still have a chance to be in AAA by the end of next season, the first time they will be eligible for the Rule 5, whch is optimal.
• The Guardians drafted 18 college pitchers, 1 HS pitcher, 1 HS position player and 1 college position player in the draft.  Here is the breakdown, by round, of where those players are in our system
• 1st round - Cleveland - #1 prospect in Cleveland system - MLB Pipeline
• 2nd round - AA - #25 prospect in Cleveland system - MLB Pipeline
• 2nd round - CBB - AA - #24 Prospect In Cleveland system - Guardians Perspective
• 3rd round (HS) - A+ - #8 Prospect in Cleveland Guardians System - MLB Pipeline
• 4th round - A+ (injured most of career)
• 5th round - Cleveland - #4 prospect in Cleveland system - MLB Pipeline
• 6th round - A+
• 7th round - AA - #27 prospect in Cleveland system - MLB Pipeline
• 8th round - A+
• 9th round - AA - #30 prospect in Cleveland system - MLB Pipeline
• 10th round - AA
• 11th round - AA
• 12th round - AA
• 13th round - AA
• 14th round - A+
• 15th round - A+
• 16th round - Rookie ball (injured entire career)
• 17th round - A+
• 18th round - (HS) Rookie ball
• 19th round - A+
• 20th round - Rookie ball (injured entire career)

In summary, 6 of our draftees are ranked in our top 30 prospects by MLB Pipeline.  Only one of those prospects, Tommy Ventimiglia, looks bad as a draft pick so far.  Three of our draft picks have had their careers derailed by injury.  All the rest of our draft picks are either in AA or A ball and they all show varying degrees of promise but, from what I see, 18 of our 21 draft are either in the majors or have a decent chance of making the majors at some point, based on their success so far.  Those numbers are HUGE compared to an average draft year.  

Whether this draft is our best ever will depend on the longevity of Williams and Bibee and whether any of our other picks are more than just cup-of-coffee major leaguers if they even get that far.

Certainly, the early return on this draft, first pick to last pick, are looking very good right now.  Which is good because the 2022 and 2023 drafts suck!