Friday, July 21, 2023

Is There A Trade Proposal That Works For Us?

In order to answer the titled question let's first examine the state of our roster and farm system and how our ML roster will look in 3-5 years:

Starting Pitching -  In 3-5 years the only starters who project to be here from our ML roster are Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee and Logan T. Allen.  Looking at our prospects there is currently only one prospect, Joey Cantillo, in our entire ML system who looks like an effective starting pitcher.   The rest have a lot of warts on them, starting with Justin Campbell's surgery which hides the fact that his FB was really below ML average in college and all of the other injury (McKenzie, Espino, Zibin, Webb), the lack of performance (Messick, Carver)/wildness (Nikhazy, Hajjar)/below ML average repertoire (Will Dion, Mace, Burns, Boone) and the total lack of international FA pitching prospects in our full-season ball teams.

Bottom line: Trading Cantillo, who is far from a sure thing, is not really an option given the bad drafts in 2022 and 2023 and the lack of other draftees from the 2022

Middle Infielders - Look, we are flush with middle infield prospects.  In 3 years we can project to still have Gimenez and every one of our middle infield prospects who don't wash out along the way (e.g., Gabriel Arias).  We are set on the middle infield even if none of Brito, Martinez, Tena, Furman, Genao, etc. work out.  If 1 or 2 of them do, well, the more the merrier/trade bait situation then exists.  Further down the system we have many young middle infield types including banjo-hitting 2023 draftee, Christian Knapczyk and also Alex Mooney.

Bottom line: There are plenty of MIF to populate the team in 3-5 years so a trade here should be possible.  The key is WHICH guy(s) to trade and given our pathetic record in trades aside from the Clevinger and Kluber trades and our recent disasters (Miller, Jones, Benson, Caminiero and Vargas trades) do you really think the FO will know which ones to trade?

Outfielders - We have Kwan and that is it for full-time starters.  Straw and Brennan have warts.  Oscar Gonzalez is still a question mark but only because he rots in Columbus instead of being promoted, Arias and Fry are not full-time players and especially not full-time outfielders.  On the prospect side there is Valera who is still a question mark due to injury and the fight, Halpin whose medocre performance as a way under age player in AA (compare to Bo Naylor at the same age) masks whether he will be a good ML player and the pathetic draft choices/trade acquisitions (Lampe, Boyd).  Besides Gonzalez we also have DeLauter, Noel and Pries who still have question marks by their name.

Bottom line: We need a power hitting outfielder but before we TRADE for one we need to see if Gonzalez, Valera, Noel, Halpin or Pries will work out.  A trade for a power hitting OFer is possible but I would hate to sell low on these 4 guys.  If we can keep the first 3 I am OK with losing Pries as a throw-in and Halpin as a more main piece of the trade bring in the ML power hitting RFer who has to be here for 3 years minimum and up to 5 years.

Corner Infielders/DH - In 3-5 years I see Ramirez still at 3B and Naylor at 1B.  But DH? If Gonzalez and Noel develop I think we have that covered but that is a big if as Franmil Reyes will tell you.  We have no other corner infielders in our system who project to have power.  Maybe Brito as the DH in that time, maybe.

Catcher - We have one catcher, Bo Naylor, and one question mark, Bryan Lavastide, likely to help us in 3-5 years.  While other guys (e.g., Mical Ramirez) might come out of the woodwork, it is likely we don't have any prospect depth at catcher for 3-5 years, at least.  Fry is a valuable, valuable player on this team going forward and should be, amazingly, be considered untouchable due to his skills and position versatility.

Bottom line: In the best case Lavastida grabs the backup catcher job and Fry is your 26th man and 3rd catcher.  

Bullpen - These guys are fungible but we always seem to develop them and in 3-5 years we still should have a deep collection of bullpen guys.  

Bottom line: If you had to take a leap of fatih you could easily see trading current bullpen pieces Sandlin, Morgan or Herrin as a significant part of a trade and not hurt your bullpen depth significantly.

Summary - So, what we are left with are guys I consider tradeable now:

Aaron Civale, Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, Myles Straw, Amed Rosario, Tena, Martinez, Halpin, Sandlin, Morgan, Herrin, Pries.

This winter, depending on health and what happens the rest of this season, you can add Bieber and Gimenez to this list.  

These are the guys you can trade.  Freeman obviously only goes as part of a package if we get a stud ML player back

If we can obtain  Dylan Carlson for Civale, Sandlin and Tena I do that trade.

If we can obtain  Lane Thomas I would give up Gabriel Arias and Tanner Burns

If we can get Jordan Walker I would give up Civale, Sandlin, Herrin and Tena.

If we can get Michael Busch I would give up Civale, Straw, Rosario and Herrin.

There are many more trade possibilities out there but you get the picture.

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