Ok, we are now a day away from the draft and what Guardian fans want to know, considering we don't have a Comp A draft pick this year, is who the Guardians will pick at #23 as our next pick is not until #58.
Looking at the movement on draft boards as we approach the draft I wanted to go through the guys who might be available when we pick in the 1st round and handicap what the chances are that we will draft them if they are available. I am not saying I would draft them, just what the Guardians might do based on my understanding of their organizational goals and my opinion of the ability (or lack thereof) of Scott Barnsby and Co. to make the right pick.
1. Any top 10 of MLB Pipeline's top 250 prospects except Chase Dollander - 100% chance we take them.
2. In the 11-20 group the following would be 100% chance of use selecting him:
Of the remaining players who were ranked into the top 30 here are my predictions of the chances we would take them.
3. Nolan Schanuel = 100% - He is the exact type of statistical darling the Guardians love, offensively. His value is in whether he can handle the OF as RH throwing firstbaseman are considered non-optimal, defensively. Given that the Guardians favor these LH hitting, hit over power, good eye hitting tools I can't believe they would pass on Schanuel as they would be able to talk themselves into him being an outfielder (see Josh Naylor and Amed Rosario).
4. Enique Bradfield Jr. - 100% if Schanuel is gone - The Guardians and Barnsby will not be able to keep themselves from making the sucker's bet for Bradfield. He will be another slap hitting, bunt efficient, centerfielder with speed type of guy that the Guardians drafted about 100 of last year.
5. Hurston Waldrep - 80% if Schanuel and Bradfield are gone - I don't think he will be there (thus the 80%). He has a big fastball but has command issues and has been all over the board in rankings and mock drafts in the last month. If the Guardians think their finishing school for college pitchers (formerly known as the pitching factory) is intact and hummng, they would go for him if available.
6. Brock Wilken - 75% if Schanuel and Bradfield are gone - A power hitting third baseman, this is out of character for the Guardians to take a guy like this but maybe after the 2022 draft disaster they will, appropriately so, change course.
7. Colt Emerson - 50% if Schanuel and Bradfield are gone - Looking at all the guys above I think Emerson should be at #3 (instead of Schanuel) and 100% if all the guys in the top 18 I mentioned above are taken. He is the LH hitting version of Tyler Freeman and I think we could be talking about a Trammell - Whitaker situation with Freeman and Emerson in the future. He is a hit over power guy but the hit tool is, supposedly, exceptional. The only problem is if the Guardians are scared they can't develop him. Again, a fools bet by deciding not to draft the best player (in my opinion) likely to be available at this pick. Besides, he is my selection and the consensus choice of mock drafters I have read for who the Guardians should/will select at this point.
8. Yohandy Morales - 45 if Schanuel and Bradfield are gone - I was all over this guy early but his stock seems to be dropping as he projects as a solid but not spectacular MLer with limited positional flexibility (1B/3B). I love the pick but I don't believe the Guardians will.
9 (tie). Bryce Eldridge, Thomas White, Charlee Soto - 45% if Schanuel and Bradfield are gone
12. Arjun Nimmala - 40% - If Nimmala falls this far I would stay away from him. It means, to me, that other teams believe his bonus would be too high for his slot and his talent. But Barnsby may go for the brass ring thinking he could be another Lindor. So, not out of the realm of possibiility but it might break our budget and wreck the rest of our draft if we go for him if he is available at 23. So I would pass.
13 (tie) Chase Davis, Dillon Head, Walker Martin, George Lombard Jr. Kevin McGonigle, Raphy Valezquez, Jack Gelof, Jack Hurley, Joe Whitman - 25%
22 (tie). Sammy Stafura, Ty Floyd - 0% - Stafura was at 86 in the MLB Pipeline rankings last month anf Floyd was even lower than that but pre-draft buzz has pushed them up rankings. PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE, no late-rising flyers in the first round of this draft. Even Barnsby can't be that stupid to risk the top pick in the draft on a guy whose overall skillset is being way undervalued compared to his what-have-you-done-for-me-lately results sucker bet.
There you have it. that's where I think we are right now. If you are a fan of Schanuel you could get him. Of course that will likely make a couple of our 2022 draft picks instantly unneeded. Ditto for Bradfield as Lampe and Lipscomb (and Boyd, for that matter) only have value if they can play CF.
Later tonight I will drop who I think, if they are available, that the Guardians should pick in the first 2 rounds (picks 23, 58 and 62) of the draft.
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