Friday, July 21, 2023

Trade Chips

 The more nervous I am about a subject the more often I post on it.  I guess it makes me feel better to think that I have made a point even though the reason I have my own blog is because it is important to me to say what I am thinking knowing that very few people read it.   Cathartic is the word that comes to mind.

So, that being said and with the rumors I have seen floated even by people who follow the Guardians I wanted to put in my two cents about who we should trade

Middle Infielders

Amed Rosario - The key, to me, is what you get in return.  I think he should be traded but if teams treat the Guardians like they are doing us a favor taking Rosario's salary off our hands then I walk away.  In fact, I send Rosario to AAA if I want to play my younger middle infielders.  So, if you have to throw up your hands and catch yourself saying, before you make the trade "He had no trade value" you just don't make the trade. Keep Rosario and don't trade any mddle infielder except Arias as, next year, you will need all those guys.  If you go any other route, I think you becoming the mini-me San Diego Padres.

Andres Gimenez - If there is one middle infielder I would trade without blinking, given a good return, it would be Gimenez.  He is slick, to be sure, but we have plenty and he is a proven major leaguer.  Teams would be crazy not to want him if they have a middle infield need.  The question becomes are they crazy enough to give us the return we got for Clevinger, or in that range? 

Gabriel "The Arm" Arias - I once heard that it that it was better to keep quiet and have people think you are an idiot than to open your mouth and remove all doubt.  It would have been great if Arias had just been productive at AAA, hitting .275 this year with some power with us knowing that he really can't hit ML pitching. Then we would have had a good chance to get something for him.  But now?  Not so much. Look, we have been down this road before with Zimmer, Mercado, Clement and others.  The odds are, at this point, very slim that Arias will be an offensive force of any kind.  If we can include him in a multiplayer trade and get a useable return then I do it and save all my other young middle infielders.

Tyler Freeman - Look, I love Freeman and what he brings to the game and if we can keep him, train him to play the OF, too, then I keep him.  The only way I trade him is if it is between him and...

Brayan Rocchio - Rocchio is, to me, the most untouchable middle infield prospect we have.  Martinez, Tena, Brito, Schneeman (yeah, I did include him).  Even none of the ML middle infielders we have on the 26-man right now are more exciting to me than Rocchio.  For an organization that values young, good fielding, hit-over-power switch-hitting guys, why are we even talking about this.  Rocchio checks off just about every box we have for a young middle infielder.  I just hope the fact that he is NOT in Cleveland right now is because they are waiting until Rosario is traded and NOT because the FO braintrust values Rocchio low enough that they are willing to undervalue him in a trade.

Outfielders

Myles Straw - Look, I don't really get why Straw's defense is so mediocre this year.  His offense has gotten better but, clearly, is never likely to be more than it is now.  So it is likely we just were burned by offering him an extension when we did and it is time to move one.  Frankly, Valera and Gonzalez as the 4th or platoon outfielders is better than spending the roster spot on Straw.  I think teams will value him as a throw-in on a trade and, like Arias, I do that if it gives me better young players out of a deal.

Oscar Gonzalez - They are the Cleveland Guardians.  They need to stay cheap and keep cranking out young, talented guys to keep being competitive, while on a budger.  I think Gonzalez is on the cusp of being really good.  Even if he fails we have Jhonkensy Noel and Jonathon Rodriguez on the way up.  Right now Gonzalez, like Rocchio, doesn't have a lot of value and would likely be a throw-in to a trade.  I keep him and let him platoon with Brennan (as long as Straw is n CF), as opposed to trading him for a ML outfielder.  The fear here is that we see too much Franmil Reyes in Gonzalez which, of course, is part of the resaon Will Benson and Nolan Jones are somewhere else and we have nothing to show for it except for the promise of Juan Brito in 2025.  

George Valera - He is damaged goods, both from injuries and from the recent fight.  Includng him in a trade at this point is, undoubtedly, selling low.  

Pitchers

Shane Beiber - Our biggest trade chip is staying now.  No way any team gives us what he is worth.  

Aaron Civale - Now our de facto biggest pitching trade chip, I am fine with tradeing CIvale.  I think we are maximizing his value if we make an astute trade involving him now.  The only think I will caution on it will weaken our chance to compete this year AND put our young starters at risk as we have to replace Civale's innings from the bullpen as whoever we bring up will not pitch as well, right away, as Civale is.  So, I get good value for him and I trade him in a heartbeat.  I am not talking Clevinger value but more like Tyler Mahle value.

Nick Sandlin - I think his value is the highest it ever has been right now and I would package him with Civale to a team like the Cardinals.  

James Karinchak - The Guardians FO has a way of looking at a guy who has had troubles and only see the warts.  Oh for the days when this team would embrace a guy like Albert Belle with all his quirks and given him a safe harbor to let him produce.  If you compare Sandlin and Karinchak there is not question.  Sandlin is out the door in a trade and Karinchak is called up.

Summary

I fear that the Guardians are ready to cut bait with Rocchio, Gonzalez and Karinchak, using them to get some young veteran they think is the missing piece to their puzzle.  This is the wrong approach as it has been with Francona staying with his veterans plus Arias way too long.    I don't want this trading deadline to be like our drafting where we think we know more than everyone else and get burned for it.   So, if you want to trade Civale and Sandlin and get an outfielder (e.g., Civale, Sandlin and Herrin for Jordan Walker) I might buy into that.  Might, as Walker currently sports a -0.9 WAR although he is a 21 year old playing in the majors  But, in me saying this, you can see where I am going.  Don't give away the guys who can help us next year who are at a low water mark in their value.  Trade the guys at the high water mark.

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