2023 Amateur Draft - First Round Blog and Instant Analysis: Cleveland Guardians First Day Picks:

In any draft, the guy you want has to be there when it is your turn.  Also, if some guy falls to you is it really worth it to draft him, given that he fell past a number of teams for a specific reason...or three.

The major developments early in the first round that impacted the Guardians were:

• Nolan Schanuel (#26 prospect) went to the Angels at #11.  Schanuel's skill set and his relative product rank put him in a group of guys who the Guardians might have been able to choose from.
• Bryce Eldridge (#23 prospect) was drafted at #16 by San Francisco who has history with letting two-way prospects have the opportunity to try both as a pro.
• Enrique Bradfield Jr. (#21) went to Baltimore at #17, removing the sucker bet that the Guardians could make at #23 that Bradfield would develop into the next coming of Kenny Lofton

NOTE: Still on the board at this point at this point is the rapidly falling Arjun Nimmala due to his power over hit potential to go along with a much higher than expected strikeout rate this spring.  Again, if a guy falls significantly from his slot there has to be a reason that 10 or more teams passed on the #11 prospect in the draft.  Colin Houck (#12) and a slew of other HS SS types also remain on the board at this point.  Also still on the board is HS catcher, Balke Mitchell (#14), HS 3B Aiden Miller (#13) and Hursten Waldrep (#19) college RHP.

• Brock Wilken (#25) went off the board at #18 to Milwaukee, taking away one of the two guys who have extensively been linked to the Guardians in mock drafts.
• Following suit, Tampa Bay picks college 3B prospect Brayden Taylor (#15) at #19, leaving only Yohandy Morales as a first round talent, college 3B prospect.  
• Arjun Nimmala comes off the board to Toronto at #20.  Again, he fell 9 places.  We will see if that is a bargain or a sucker's bet for Toronto.

NOTE: Now 3 guys linked to the Guardians, Bradfield Jr., Wilken and Nimmala are off the board.   Sucker bet Chase Davis (#22) is still on the board as are a slew of HS talent rated 24, 27-34 and college 3B Yohandy Morales.  St. Louis and Seattle stand betweent he Guardians and their first round pick at #23.

• Chase Davis (#22) goes to St. Louis at #21. He is a power over hit guy.  St. Louis developed Jordan Walker into a great OF prospect.  I guess they are thinking they can develop Davis the same way.
• Seattle breaks my heart and picks Colt Emerson.  I would have been swearing at this point but the kid who announced the pick has survived so much that it puts the angst in perspective.  Damn it! One pick away from having the best player (I think) left on the board.

Right now Colin Houck (#12), Aiden Miller (#13), Blake Mitchell (#14), Hurston Waldrep (#19) and Yohandy Morales (#20) are still on the board but I have to tell you I am really crushed to come so close to Emerson.   Now I worry that the Guardians will draft Sammy Stafura (#32).

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS PICK:

Ralphy Velazquez, C/1B

Analysis: Look, at this point, you are going to get a good prospect.  With that being said, I am not happy with this pick.  Bo Naylor aside, the odds of a HS catcher drafted in the first round making the majors are lower than ALL other positions, high school or college.  So, just based on history, this pick does not do it for me.  Not having Emerson put Barnsby in a position where he could use his gut and what we found last year was that his gut is not something we want to gamble on (Messick, Lampe, Furman, Lipscomb) in addition to the injured players and the fact that his picks in rounds 11-20 were the worst I can remember from a Cleveland draft. 

Plus, Velazquez's value is IF he can stick at catcher.  Otherwise, you could get a good DH/1B out of college, which is what he defaults to. 

I see Velazquez as a signability pick and expect him to sign for a slightly below slot bonus.  Otherwise, why would they not draft Blake Mitchell (#14 prospect, #1 HS catcher in draft), Colin Houck (#12) or Aiden Miller (#13), both highly ranked HS infielders.  They could have gambled on Waldrep, given the strength of their pitcher development system.   They could have punted and gone for the 'safe' pick of college 3B Yohandy Morales, not a high ceiling guy but, rather, a high floor/low ceiling guy.

All choices I would have made, assuming the bonus demands by the HS guys were not outrageous, before I drafted Velazquez.

If they wanted to infuse quality catchers into their system they would have drafted Daniel Susac and/or Dalton Rushing into their system when they had the chance last year.  They didn't.

Now on the Guardians next two picks.

Second Round

 

With their second pick, 58th overall, the Guardians selected Alex Clemmey, a LH HS pitcher.  He was ranked 50th by MLB Pipeline and has a huge fastball that can touch 99 mph. 

My favorite for that pick was Kemp Alderman but he was selected, not surprisingly, with the 47th pick in the draft.by the Marlins as his stock has risen recently.

Clemmey, as a HS pitcher has a very high ceiling but also a crash-and-burn very low floor.  Good comps of what might happen to him are Sam Hentges and Lenny Torres Jr., both high draft picks out of HS, the former being from a cold weather state (MN) like Clemmey is.  

Selecting HS kids is really playing the long game.  These guys might not impact their ML team for 4+ years or more.  The safe play here was selecting the appropriate college pitcher if you couldn't get the player you wanted at this slot.  Clemmey is going for the brass ring (as indicated by his high upside).  

2nd Round Supplemental - 

The Guardians selected Andrew Walters, a RH reliever from U. of Miami.  He was a college senior in age but a junior in eligibility due to the pandemic year in 2020 and is 22 years old.   He was the 124th rated prospect by MLB Pipeline and was selected with the 62nd selection.  

My proposed pick at this slot was Myles Naylor, who was selected higher than expected, by the Oakland As at #39.