Thursday, July 27, 2023

Thoughts For A Wednesday Night - New Starting SS Edition

 1. Let's talk about the trade today where Amed Rosario and Noah Syndergaard changed teams.

  • Dodgers fans, players and the FO have to see this as a relief.   First, they can all stop wringing their hands about whether Syndergaard will ever pitch effectively.  That now becomes Cleveland's problem.    The Dodgers get a new shiny toy who they haven't seen play yet and so there is renewed hope there.  
  • For the Guardians, we needed starting pitcher help and there was no better way to get it than to trade an expiring contract for an expiring contract and make it so neither team would owe any more money than if they just had released the player.  
  • In summary it is likely that the Dodgers get more benefit out of this trade than the Guardians do.  It is a bold gamble by the Guardians that Syndergaard has ANYTHING left in the tank but, if he does have enough to give us passable/extended starting pitching that doesn't tax the bullpen going forward and we get more wins than losses when he starts, that is a plus.  If he doesn't, it shows how little value Rosario had at the time of the trade.
  • Plus, we get to see Oscar Gonzalez.
2. We still have to hold our collective breaths over the next several days that the FO doesn't trade Rocchio for a handful of magic beans...or a power-hitting rental.   While Rocchio doesn't have a lot of power, his MLB Pipeline power grade is a 50.  We have so many middle infielders with power grades between 20 and 40 throughout our system (including at least 2 from the 2023 draft) that Rocchio even approaching average ML power would be a huge plus for this team. Plus, instead of (I hope) getting a power hitter rental who costs us prospect(s), we get to see Oscar Gonzalez.

3. This SHOULD have been a good day for Jose Ramirez.  Two HRs, a good win over KC.  But I think it was probably one of the worst days of his professional career.  First, his brother retires , ending his dream of being a ML player and then his best friend on the Guardians is traded.  Not like both of these outcomes were unexpected but to happen on the same day.  Off-field things, to be sure, but still I am sure they impacted him.  

4. The White Sox traded Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez tonight for the Angels' #2 and #3 prospects.  That sounds impressive until you understand that the Angels have only ONE player in the top 100 prospects in baseball.  They basically got what would be 2nd tier prospects in the Guardians organization.   So that is the price of rentals as set so far in this trading deadline period.  Not as much as I would have thought.  

5.  What the Guardians' announcers were saying today about the hitting coaches telling Arias something like that he should be less timid and really attacking hitting was really interesting.  Interesting because Manning said exactly what I was thinking in that moment - he's a major leaguer, isn't that what he is supposed to do?  I still think they should send him down to Columbus until September 1st and give Rocchio ABs and game time until then.  It is just ominous how they are freezing out Rocchio...similar to what they did with Nolan Jones before they gave him away last winter (NOTE: I like Juan Brito as a hitter but anyone who says that was even close to being an even trade really isn't being honest with themselves).

6.  David Fry.  What can you say?  But I encourage all fans to remember that all David Fry is, on a WS contender, is the best 26th man in baseball.  As you increase his importance and his usage his worth actually will go down.   I have seen Casey Blake's name mentioned.  Good comp, IMHO.  but, still, imagine a team where Blake would have just good enough to be the 26th or 26th man.  THAT would have been a great team and that is what we should be striving for.  That is going to be best for Fry and best for the long-term competitiveness of the Guardians.

7. Guardians Prospective listed all the middle infield prospects we have in the organization.  I went back and looked and here is what I find:
  • Power grades of 20-40, Mooney, Knapczyk, Fox, Furman, Tolentino, Valdes, Benjamin
  • Power garde of 45: Genao, Martinez, Brito, Tena, Frias, Francisca, Freeman, Devers
  • Power grade of 50+ (ML average): Rocchio, Arias
Two things about this list: We have a bunch of middle infield prospects with way below ML average power and only two who have ML average power.  None with even a little above average power.  

Add this to how many outfield prospects/MLers we have with below average power and it is concerning.   I imagine some stats guy has done this calculation but I wonder how many games we would win if we had 9 guys like the 2023 version of Steven Kwan in our batting order.  It would be an interesting simulation.

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